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2013: $1,200 Gold, $50 Oil

renman95renman95 Posts: 7,037 ✭✭✭✭✭
Yikes!

"These predictions should be taken with a pinch of salt as most of Jakobsen's similar predictions last year didn't come true - most notably the forecast that (AAPL)'s stock would lose 50 percent from its 2011 high. The technology company is actually up 28 percent on the year after the successful iPhone5 and iPad Mini launches."

Comments

  • gsa1fangsa1fan Posts: 5,566 ✭✭✭
    Great maybe they will get 12 million Americans back to workimage
    Avid collector of GSA's.
  • OPAOPA Posts: 17,104 ✭✭✭✭✭
    His prediction is about as far fetched as some of the PM bulls. Most are self serving and not worth your time reading. The successful and accurate crystal gazers, have no reason to disclose their predictions except to close inner circle friends. image
    "Bongo drive 1984 Lincoln that looks like old coin dug from ground."
  • jmski52jmski52 Posts: 22,305 ✭✭✭✭✭
    Wouldn't $1,200 gold kind of imply that the Fed would withdraw liquidity and that interest rates would ramp up?

    That wouldn't be so good for the economy or for those debt payments that the government is obligated to make.

    $50 oil would be similar to a tax cut, so that would be a good thing and might even be positive for the economy. We shall see.
    Q: Are You Printing Money? Bernanke: Not Literally

    I knew it would happen.
  • gsa1fangsa1fan Posts: 5,566 ✭✭✭
    I can see cheap oil if USA ramps up production. I feel Arab nations would start flooding market with cheap oil.
    Avid collector of GSA's.
  • renman95renman95 Posts: 7,037 ✭✭✭✭✭


    << <i>I can see cheap oil if USA ramps up production. I feel Arab nations would start flooding market with cheap oil. >>



    We've seen this movie before.
  • 57loaded57loaded Posts: 4,967 ✭✭✭
    Is there a prediction for the DOW?

    I'm thinkin' Au and DOW are more inversely tied to each other than b4.

    Make $$$ there or over there, move it over there or there. I wanna crystal ball for where is there and over there.
  • renman95renman95 Posts: 7,037 ✭✭✭✭✭


    << <i>Is there a prediction for the DOW?

    I'm thinkin' Au and DOW are more inversely tied to each other than b4.

    Make $$$ there or over there, move it over there or there. I wanna crystal ball for where is there and over there. >>



    Eventually we'll see lows close to your post count. image Not in 2013.

    Coming up on a giveaway?

  • roadrunnerroadrunner Posts: 28,303 ✭✭✭✭✭
    Not likely we'll see higher interest rates as long as the big 6 banks carry $250 TRILL in otc interest rate contracts that would blow up if rates went a lot higher.
    Those contracts are the FED's/Treasury's backbone to ensure rates stay low. If they have to, they can pile on another $50 TRILL like they did in early 2011. That did
    quite a number on rising rates....even fooled Pimco.

    True costs of mining gold and silver

    Based on the above article it's going to be tough to drive gold under $1360 and silver below $28 since this is the average break even point for miners.
    If price starts to approach those levels, those guys will slow production further and get back into a hedged forward production/carry trade game like the mid-1990's.
    Their exploration budgets will shrink to nothing and their unprofitable mines will be placed on care and maintenance until things turn around.
    Barbarous Relic No More, LSCC -GoldSeek--shadow stats--SafeHaven--321gold
  • jmski52jmski52 Posts: 22,305 ✭✭✭✭✭
    Adding to roadrunner's observations, from ZeroHedge:

    Most institutional investors, keep in mind, have no idea how the TBTF banks actually make money. So when well-meaning Sell Side analysts predict wondrous stock price appreciation for the Zombie Dance Queens, the proverbial sheep on the Buy Side sing with joy -- and rush into the interest rate trap so lovingly constructed by Chairman Bernanke and the Fed. Keep in mind that the corollary of ZIRP is massive interest rate and market risk on the books of all banks. Think trillions of dollars in option adjusted duration risk.

    Zombie Dance Party - same girls, new music

    Let me repeat the last 2 lines,

    Keep in mind that the corollary of ZIRP is massive interest rate and market risk on the books of all banks. Think trillions of dollars in option adjusted duration risk.
    Q: Are You Printing Money? Bernanke: Not Literally

    I knew it would happen.
  • DrBusterDrBuster Posts: 5,301 ✭✭✭✭✭
    Ha, zombie dance.

  • Timbuk3Timbuk3 Posts: 11,658 ✭✭✭✭✭
    Saw that episode on CNBC. Sounds
    far-fetched but plausible !!! I don't
    think it will happen.
    Timbuk3
  • BBNBBN Posts: 3,761 ✭✭✭
    Would be pretty awesome, IMO. Take the money you save on fuel and every other thing that drops in price and buy PMs on sale. image

    Positive BST Transactions (buyers and sellers): wondercoin, blu62vette, BAJJERFAN, privatecoin, blu62vette, AlanLastufka, privatecoin

    #1 1951 Bowman Los Angeles Rams Team Set
    #2 1980 Topps Los Angeles Rams Team Set
    #8 (and climbing) 1972 Topps Los Angeles Rams Team Set
  • BaleyBaley Posts: 22,658 ✭✭✭✭✭
    mid year check up, was Jakobsen more right or wrong? what's the outlook for the remainder of 2013?

    Liberty: Parent of Science & Industry

  • vprvpr Posts: 604 ✭✭✭
    A correction in the short/medium term would be my guess. There's way too much bearish sentiment in gold and silver. We'll go up a bit, but nowhere near the highs. Maybe, gold at 1400-1450 and silver at around 25 would be my guess. Either way, I'm not buying that much. We'll need to get under $1000 in gold. I don't plan on adding much silver. Gold is so much smaller! I could easily carry around $100K worth of gold in a backpack. Imagine doing that with silver!
    References: Too many to list. PM for details. 100% satisfaction both as buyer and seller. As a seller, I ship promptly and keep buyers updated.
  • vprvpr Posts: 604 ✭✭✭
    Also on my list to buy is Anglo Ashanti. If only I could roll over all of my 401K into an IRA. I'd go all in on that stock.
    References: Too many to list. PM for details. 100% satisfaction both as buyer and seller. As a seller, I ship promptly and keep buyers updated.
  • 57loaded57loaded Posts: 4,967 ✭✭✭


    << <i>

    << <i>Is there a prediction for the DOW?

    I'm thinkin' Au and DOW are more inversely tied to each other than b4.

    Make $$$ there or over there, move it over there or there. I wanna crystal ball for where is there and over there. >>



    Eventually we'll see lows close to your post count. image Not in 2013.

    Coming up on a giveaway? >>



    Dang I haven't posted much this year have I? Probably to everyone's benefit.image
  • renman95renman95 Posts: 7,037 ✭✭✭✭✭


    << <i>mid year check up, was Jakobsen more right or wrong? what's the outlook for the remainder of 2013? >>



    He looks to be mo-right on gold and not-so-right on oil...thus far.
  • VanHalenVanHalen Posts: 3,787 ✭✭✭✭✭
    Perhaps a prediction thread on when oil hits $200 is in order?

    I'll go first: By July 2018 we will have seen light, sweet crude oil trading above $200/barrel. image

    Let's come back in 5 years for a looksee......
  • bronco2078bronco2078 Posts: 9,964 ✭✭✭✭✭


    I don't have an oil prediction but I read about oil everyday on this blog The oil drum


    Its a good link to bookmark.
  • BaleyBaley Posts: 22,658 ✭✭✭✭✭
    Well, AAPL did fall from $700 all the way to $400.

    Not predicting Oil all the way down to $50 but I'd not be surprised to see >$70 in the next few quarters.

    Liberty: Parent of Science & Industry

  • BanemorthBanemorth Posts: 986 ✭✭✭
    We hit sub 1200 gold.
    Justin From Jersey

    Successful Transactions With: JoeLewis, Mkman123, Harry779, Grote15, gdavis70, Kryptonitecomics
  • rickoricko Posts: 98,724 ✭✭✭✭✭
    We will see $50 oil if the U.S. ever frees up shale oil etc...... we will have more oil than the middle east if that happens... Cheers, RickO
  • My crystal ball (always right) says gold below $1000....and soon! Remember, its never been wrong
    Regards
    Kelly Strong
    UCSB Electrical Engineering....... USCG and NASA
  • BanemorthBanemorth Posts: 986 ✭✭✭


    << <i>My crystal ball (always right) says gold below $1000....and soon! Remember, its never been wrong
    Regards
    Kelly Strong >>



    What does it say about silver? image
    Justin From Jersey

    Successful Transactions With: JoeLewis, Mkman123, Harry779, Grote15, gdavis70, Kryptonitecomics
  • Sorry but its only programed for gold..............
    UCSB Electrical Engineering....... USCG and NASA
  • OPAOPA Posts: 17,104 ✭✭✭✭✭


    << <i>

    << <i>mid year check up, was Jakobsen more right or wrong? what's the outlook for the remainder of 2013? >>



    He looks to be mo-right on gold and not-so-right on oil...thus far. >>



    I suppose 1 out of a dozen or so predictions ain't bad ... he needs to fine tune his crystal ball or swami image
    "Bongo drive 1984 Lincoln that looks like old coin dug from ground."
  • johnny9434johnny9434 Posts: 27,411 ✭✭✭✭✭


    << <i>Great maybe they will get 12 million Americans back to workimage >>

    good luck with that one image
  • BaleyBaley Posts: 22,658 ✭✭✭✭✭
    How about now?

    Liberty: Parent of Science & Industry

  • BaleyBaley Posts: 22,658 ✭✭✭✭✭
    US Oil Prices Fall Sharply as Glut Forms on Gulf Coast (WSJ 12/6/13, R. Gold & N. Friedman)
    The US gulf coast.. is suddenly awash in crude oil.. the price of crude has dropped sharply... a US Oil glut is coming.. surging output from oil fields in west Texas and North Dakota.. new pipeline.. Luisiana Light Sweet prices falling... force US oil producers to offer large discounts.. ruination of oil prices... natural gas overproduction has caused prices to remain near multi year lows.. a gallon of gas cost on average 12.2 cents less than a year earlier... "we're awash in cheap energy" says Paul Smith, the chief risk officer at Mobius Risk Group... Valero, the nation's largest refiner, all but stopped importing light weight crude to the gulf coast and memphis a year ago because there was so much US product available.. the surge in US oil production has been swift.. the Bakken Shale formation in North Dakota passed one million barrels per day in May and is [now] nearing 1.3 million barrels a day.. horizontal drilling and hydraulic fracturing technologies.. expect growing production to push prices of crude to below $80/barrel..

    Liberty: Parent of Science & Industry

  • derrybderryb Posts: 36,113 ✭✭✭✭✭


    << <i>"we're awash in cheap energy" says Paul Smith, the chief risk officer at Mobius Risk Group. >>


    an economy awash in deflation probably has a lot do with declining oil prices. rising oil prices will be your indicator that deflation is turning into inflation, regardless of oil supplies.

    The decline from democracy to tyranny is both a natural and inevitable one.

  • VanHalenVanHalen Posts: 3,787 ✭✭✭✭✭


    << <i>US Oil Prices Fall Sharply as Glut Forms on Gulf Coast (WSJ 12/6/13, R. Gold & N. Friedman)
    The US gulf coast.. is suddenly awash in crude oil.. the price of crude has dropped sharply... a US Oil glut is coming.. surging output from oil fields in west Texas and North Dakota.. new pipeline.....expect growing production to push prices of crude to below $80/barrel.. >>



    Common sense and real supply/demand would never have taken oil over $80 in 2010. Speculation and greed will take back well above $100 in 2014. Fundamentals don't work like they use to.......

  • jmski52jmski52 Posts: 22,305 ✭✭✭✭✭
    My understanding is that the shale formations are already declining in efficiency, there's a lot of it but not as cheap to recover as thought.
    Q: Are You Printing Money? Bernanke: Not Literally

    I knew it would happen.
  • cohodkcohodk Posts: 18,553 ✭✭✭✭✭
    Interestingly enough there is a potentially bullish chart pattern developing for oil.
    Excuses are tools of the ignorant

    Knowledge is the enemy of fear

  • BaleyBaley Posts: 22,658 ✭✭✭✭✭


    << <i>We will see $50 oil if the U.S. ever frees up shale oil etc...... we will have more oil than the middle east if that happens... Cheers, RickO >>



    "when" that happens image

    Liberty: Parent of Science & Industry

  • bronco2078bronco2078 Posts: 9,964 ✭✭✭✭✭


    They should have a great time paying off the debt they ran up getting all that shale oil flowing at $50 a barrel image
  • jmski52jmski52 Posts: 22,305 ✭✭✭✭✭
    Wouldn't $1,200 gold kind of imply that the Fed would withdraw liquidity and that interest rates would ramp up?

    That wouldn't be so good for the economy or for those debt payments that the government is obligated to make.

    $50 oil would be similar to a tax cut, so that would be a good thing and might even be positive for the economy. We shall see.



    Revision to my previous remarks:

    Wouldn't $1,200 gold kind of imply that the Fed would withdraw liquidity and that interest rates would ramp up?

    That wouldn't be so good for the economy or for those debt payments that the government is obligated to make.

    $50 oil would be similar to a tax cut (for consumers), so that would be a good thing

    But it also <<might not be so good>> for the economy on another whole level. We shall see.

    The other reason it might not be so good is that there is a price war going on now with Saudi, and a currency war going on with everybody.

    Messes with the equity in companies and loan portfolios. Call it a potential Black Swan.

    Q: Are You Printing Money? Bernanke: Not Literally

    I knew it would happen.
  • BaleyBaley Posts: 22,658 ✭✭✭✭✭


    << <i>We will see $50 oil if the U.S. ever frees up shale oil etc...... we will have more oil than the middle east if that happens... Cheers, RickO >>



    Good call! It would appear that the "if" has turned to "when" and that when is Now.

    2015: $1,200 Gold, $50 Oil

    Liberty: Parent of Science & Industry

  • OPAOPA Posts: 17,104 ✭✭✭✭✭


    << <i>

    << <i>We will see $50 oil if the U.S. ever frees up shale oil etc...... we will have more oil than the middle east if that happens... Cheers, RickO >>



    Good call! It would appear that the "if" has turned to "when" and that when is Now.

    2015: $1,200 Gold, $50 Oil >>



    Wow...I need to borrow his crystal ball. Fantastic call made in 2012. I take back everything derogatory I said.
    "Bongo drive 1984 Lincoln that looks like old coin dug from ground."
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