2013: $1,200 Gold, $50 Oil

renman95 · December 17, 2012 8:34PM

Yikes!

"These predictions should be taken with a pinch of salt as most of Jakobsen's similar predictions last year didn't come true - most notably the forecast that (AAPL)'s stock would lose 50 percent from its 2011 high. The technology company is actually up 28 percent on the year after the successful iPhone5 and iPad Mini launches."

gsa1fan · December 18, 2012 12:40AM

Great maybe they will get 12 million Americans back to work

OPA · December 18, 2012 12:56AM

His prediction is about as far fetched as some of the PM bulls. Most are self serving and not worth your time reading. The successful and accurate crystal gazers, have no reason to disclose their predictions except to close inner circle friends.

jmski52 · December 18, 2012 1:01AM

Wouldn't $1,200 gold kind of imply that the Fed would withdraw liquidity and that interest rates would ramp up?

That wouldn't be so good for the economy or for those debt payments that the government is obligated to make.

$50 oil would be similar to a tax cut, so that would be a good thing and might even be positive for the economy. We shall see.

gsa1fan · December 18, 2012 1:04AM

I can see cheap oil if USA ramps up production. I feel Arab nations would start flooding market with cheap oil.

renman95 · December 18, 2012 3:17AM

<< I can see cheap oil if USA ramps up production. I feel Arab nations would start flooding market with cheap oil. >>

We've seen this movie before.

57loaded · December 18, 2012 5:40AM

Is there a prediction for the DOW?

I'm thinkin' Au and DOW are more inversely tied to each other than b4.

Make $$$ there or over there, move it over there or there. I wanna crystal ball for where is there and over there.

renman95 · December 18, 2012 6:07AM

<< Is there a prediction for the DOW?

I'm thinkin' Au and DOW are more inversely tied to each other than b4.

Make $$$ there or over there, move it over there or there. I wanna crystal ball for where is there and over there. >>

Eventually we'll see lows close to your post count.

Not in 2013.

Coming up on a giveaway?

roadrunner · December 18, 2012 11:18AM

Not likely we'll see higher interest rates as long as the big 6 banks carry $250 TRILL in otc interest rate contracts that would blow up if rates went a lot higher.
Those contracts are the FED's/Treasury's backbone to ensure rates stay low. If they have to, they can pile on another $50 TRILL like they did in early 2011. That did
quite a number on rising rates....even fooled Pimco.

True costs of mining gold and silver

Based on the above article it's going to be tough to drive gold under $1360 and silver below $28 since this is the average break even point for miners.
If price starts to approach those levels, those guys will slow production further and get back into a hedged forward production/carry trade game like the mid-1990's.
Their exploration budgets will shrink to nothing and their unprofitable mines will be placed on care and maintenance until things turn around.

jmski52 · December 18, 2012 11:30PM

Adding to roadrunner's observations, from ZeroHedge:

Most institutional investors, keep in mind, have no idea how the TBTF banks actually make money. So when well-meaning Sell Side analysts predict wondrous stock price appreciation for the Zombie Dance Queens, the proverbial sheep on the Buy Side sing with joy -- and rush into the interest rate trap so lovingly constructed by Chairman Bernanke and the Fed. Keep in mind that the corollary of ZIRP is massive interest rate and market risk on the books of all banks. Think trillions of dollars in option adjusted duration risk.

Zombie Dance Party - same girls, new music

Let me repeat the last 2 lines,

Keep in mind that the corollary of ZIRP is massive interest rate and market risk on the books of all banks. Think trillions of dollars in option adjusted duration risk.

DrBuster · December 19, 2012 12:40AM

Ha, zombie dance.

Timbuk3 · December 19, 2012 1:34AM

Saw that episode on CNBC. Sounds
far-fetched but plausible !!! I don't
think it will happen.

BBN · December 19, 2012 4:38AM

Would be pretty awesome, IMO. Take the money you save on fuel and every other thing that drops in price and buy PMs on sale.

Baley · June 25, 2013 6:08AM

mid year check up, was Jakobsen more right or wrong? what's the outlook for the remainder of 2013?

vpr · June 25, 2013 7:43AM

A correction in the short/medium term would be my guess. There's way too much bearish sentiment in gold and silver. We'll go up a bit, but nowhere near the highs. Maybe, gold at 1400-1450 and silver at around 25 would be my guess. Either way, I'm not buying that much. We'll need to get under $1000 in gold. I don't plan on adding much silver. Gold is so much smaller! I could easily carry around $100K worth of gold in a backpack. Imagine doing that with silver!

vpr · June 25, 2013 7:44AM

Also on my list to buy is Anglo Ashanti. If only I could roll over all of my 401K into an IRA. I'd go all in on that stock.

57loaded · June 25, 2013 7:48AM

<< 

<< Is there a prediction for the DOW?

I'm thinkin' Au and DOW are more inversely tied to each other than b4.

Make $$$ there or over there, move it over there or there. I wanna crystal ball for where is there and over there. >>

Eventually we'll see lows close to your post count.

Not in 2013.

Coming up on a giveaway? >>

Dang I haven't posted much this year have I? Probably to everyone's benefit.

renman95 · June 25, 2013 8:18AM

<< mid year check up, was Jakobsen more right or wrong? what's the outlook for the remainder of 2013? >>

He looks to be mo-right on gold and not-so-right on oil...thus far.

VanHalen · June 25, 2013 9:23AM

Perhaps a prediction thread on when oil hits $200 is in order?

I'll go first: By July 2018 we will have seen light, sweet crude oil trading above $200/barrel.

Let's come back in 5 years for a looksee......

Unknown · June 25, 2013 10:19AM

This content has been removed.

bronco2078 · June 25, 2013 10:23AM

I don't have an oil prediction but I read about oil everyday on this blog The oil drum

Its a good link to bookmark.

Baley · June 26, 2013 6:09AM

Well, AAPL did fall from $700 all the way to $400.

Not predicting Oil all the way down to $50 but I'd not be surprised to see >$70 in the next few quarters.

Banemorth · June 27, 2013 3:11AM

We hit sub 1200 gold.

ricko · June 27, 2013 4:09AM

We will see $50 oil if the U.S. ever frees up shale oil etc...... we will have more oil than the middle east if that happens... Cheers, RickO

Kip · June 27, 2013 4:26AM

My crystal ball (always right) says gold below $1000....and soon! Remember, its never been wrong
Regards
Kelly Strong

Banemorth · June 27, 2013 4:42AM

<< My crystal ball (always right) says gold below $1000....and soon! Remember, its never been wrong
Regards
Kelly Strong >>

What does it say about silver?

Kip · June 27, 2013 4:46AM

Sorry but its only programed for gold..............

OPA · June 27, 2013 5:14AM

<< 

<< mid year check up, was Jakobsen more right or wrong? what's the outlook for the remainder of 2013? >>

He looks to be mo-right on gold and not-so-right on oil...thus far. >>

I suppose 1 out of a dozen or so predictions ain't bad ... he needs to fine tune his crystal ball or swami

johnny9434 · June 27, 2013 5:21AM

<< Great maybe they will get 12 million Americans back to work

>>

good luck with that one

Baley · November 27, 2013 11:17PM

How about now?

Baley · December 7, 2013 1:16AM

US Oil Prices Fall Sharply as Glut Forms on Gulf Coast (WSJ 12/6/13, R. Gold & N. Friedman)
The US gulf coast.. is suddenly awash in crude oil.. the price of crude has dropped sharply... a US Oil glut is coming.. surging output from oil fields in west Texas and North Dakota.. new pipeline.. Luisiana Light Sweet prices falling... force US oil producers to offer large discounts.. ruination of oil prices... natural gas overproduction has caused prices to remain near multi year lows.. a gallon of gas cost on average 12.2 cents less than a year earlier... "we're awash in cheap energy" says Paul Smith, the chief risk officer at Mobius Risk Group... Valero, the nation's largest refiner, all but stopped importing light weight crude to the gulf coast and memphis a year ago because there was so much US product available.. the surge in US oil production has been swift.. the Bakken Shale formation in North Dakota passed one million barrels per day in May and is [now] nearing 1.3 million barrels a day.. horizontal drilling and hydraulic fracturing technologies.. expect growing production to push prices of crude to below $80/barrel..

derryb · December 7, 2013 9:13AM

<< "we're awash in cheap energy" says Paul Smith, the chief risk officer at Mobius Risk Group. >>

an economy awash in deflation probably has a lot do with declining oil prices. rising oil prices will be your indicator that deflation is turning into inflation, regardless of oil supplies.

VanHalen · December 7, 2013 3:45PM

<< US Oil Prices Fall Sharply as Glut Forms on Gulf Coast (WSJ 12/6/13, R. Gold & N. Friedman)
The US gulf coast.. is suddenly awash in crude oil.. the price of crude has dropped sharply... a US Oil glut is coming.. surging output from oil fields in west Texas and North Dakota.. new pipeline.....expect growing production to push prices of crude to below $80/barrel.. >>

Common sense and real supply/demand would never have taken oil over $80 in 2010. Speculation and greed will take back well above $100 in 2014. Fundamentals don't work like they use to.......

jmski52 · December 7, 2013 11:30PM

My understanding is that the shale formations are already declining in efficiency, there's a lot of it but not as cheap to recover as thought.

cohodk · December 8, 2013 1:09AM

Interestingly enough there is a potentially bullish chart pattern developing for oil.

Baley · December 5, 2014 5:09AM

<< We will see $50 oil if the U.S. ever frees up shale oil etc...... we will have more oil than the middle east if that happens... Cheers, RickO >>

"when" that happens

bronco2078 · December 5, 2014 5:45AM

They should have a great time paying off the debt they ran up getting all that shale oil flowing at $50 a barrel

jmski52 · December 5, 2014 10:57AM

Wouldn't $1,200 gold kind of imply that the Fed would withdraw liquidity and that interest rates would ramp up?

That wouldn't be so good for the economy or for those debt payments that the government is obligated to make.

$50 oil would be similar to a tax cut, so that would be a good thing and might even be positive for the economy. We shall see.

Revision to my previous remarks:

Wouldn't $1,200 gold kind of imply that the Fed would withdraw liquidity and that interest rates would ramp up?

That wouldn't be so good for the economy or for those debt payments that the government is obligated to make.

$50 oil would be similar to a tax cut (for consumers), so that would be a good thing

But it also <<might not be so good>> for the economy on another whole level. We shall see.

The other reason it might not be so good is that there is a price war going on now with Saudi, and a currency war going on with everybody.

Messes with the equity in companies and loan portfolios. Call it a potential Black Swan.

Baley · June 5, 2015 3:53AM

<< We will see $50 oil if the U.S. ever frees up shale oil etc...... we will have more oil than the middle east if that happens... Cheers, RickO >>

Good call! It would appear that the "if" has turned to "when" and that when is Now.

2015: $1,200 Gold, $50 Oil

OPA · June 5, 2015 5:50AM

<< 

<< We will see $50 oil if the U.S. ever frees up shale oil etc...... we will have more oil than the middle east if that happens... Cheers, RickO >>

Good call! It would appear that the "if" has turned to "when" and that when is Now.

2015: $1,200 Gold, $50 Oil >>

Wow...I need to borrow his crystal ball. Fantastic call made in 2012. I take back everything derogatory I said.

2013: $1,200 Gold, $50 Oil

Comments