How Accurate Is The PCGS Price Guide ?

STEWARTBLAYNUMIS

They need to know, Dandy Don Willis and HRH David Home Run Hall.

I find many vagaries such as significant price spreads between coins in the same series with identical grades. How can this be corrected and narrowed down ? The recently added price guide for Colonial Coins will probably have the greatest spreads for coins in the same grade because of many reasons but primarily because the Colonial coins are very difficult to grade.

In the Classic coin series the PCGS price guide tends to reflect the latest auction results. I find this ambiguous because there are high end and low end coins for the grade. I do not believe their + grades have corrected this issue.

I really think PCGS needs more feedback from both collectors of high end and popular mid range ,such as AU 58, coins.

So post away and don't be shy . I certainly am not . If the pricing gurus can get a few helpful hints this thread will be worthwhile.

Stewart Blay

joeykoins

Yeah, I enjoy going to the PCGS price guide,but that's as far as I go.just use as a guide.Like many will tell you. When you really think about it,are any "price guides" accurate? I truly think not! It's all up to the seller and the buyer,in the final hammer price,right?

coinsarefun

I think the PCGS price guides are exactly what they are.......guides.
What helps the most is the added feature of the recent auction sales.
This is the most important and greatest addition to the price guides.IMO

ambro51

If the Guide is averaged auction prices it's as accurate an average auction price guide you cag have

joeykoins

Sorry for asking this question,it might sound dumb. I've always wondered,are the prices in the PCGS guide,according to PCGS graded slabs or are they grades( Raw) in general?If they are only Slab grades,why not placing raw grades in a guide? Like I said,sorry if this is a brutish question.

LindeDad

I find the price guide to be better than nothing and just trying to put items out there on a WAG does sometimes work but listing at guide works more often.

I will note the the Everyman sets have made it easier to price some AU58's as AU63's in some of the more popular series if you really want to win any of them at auction.

Edit to add that at the top of the guide page it tells what to use it for. And no it is not for items found in the coin machine reject slot.

leothelyon

Every value per grade suggests a price range. For example; if a coin comes in $400 higher, the value only moves up halfway by $200. Likewise when a coin comes in at $400 lower, the value is only lowered half that by $200. This creates a price range of $800 for a coin at that grade. To fully understand this system, keep a closer watch on how the values change within the price guide. Of course, coins that are somewhat unique in nature where they have low pops of 1 or 2, the value may show what the coin actually sold for.

leothelyon

Of course, if we had serious collectors in the registry who actually cared about the quality of the coins they have in their sets, we would see higher prices paid for lower graded coins verus higher graded coins. Which could really screw up a price guide.

DeliaBug

<< <i>They need to know, Dandy Don Willis and HRH David Home Run Hall.

I find many vagaries such as significant price spreads between coins in the same series with identical grades. How can this be corrected and narrowed down ? The recently added price guide for Colonial Coins will probably have the greatest spreads for coins in the same grade because of many reasons but primarily because the Colonial coins are very difficult to grade.

In the Classic coin series the PCGS price guide tends to reflect the latest auction results. I find this ambiguous because there are high end and low end coins for the grade. I do not believe their + grades have corrected this issue.

I really think PCGS needs more feedback from both collectors of high end and popular mid range ,such as AU 58, coins.

So post away and don't be shy . I certainly am not . If the pricing gurus can get a few helpful hints this thread will be worthwhile.

Stewart Blay >>



It may be accurate in some places but the combinations of inaccuracy, violations of their own specified rules, and general untrustworthiness make the entire guide suspect and unreliable. Here are some examples using the "The PCGS Price Guide prices apply only to PCGS-graded coins." criteria:
1804 Restrike - Class II. PR63 $4.5mil. It's unique in the Smithsonian. Huh.
Capped Bust Half proof 1832. May not exist. Priced in SEVEN grades. Where'd that info come from?? It's obvious they're good at making stuff up - but how good? And where else?
Actually, use the entire CBH proof half section as an example.

joeykoins

<< <i>I find the price guide to be better than nothing and just trying to put items out there on a WAG does sometimes work but listing at guide works more often.

I will note the the Everyman sets have made it easier to price some AU58's as AU63's in some of the more popular series if you really want to win any of them at auction.

Edit to add that at the top of the guide page it tells what to use it for. And no it is not for items found in the coin machine reject slot. >>

Justacommeman

<< <i>Sorry for asking this question,it might sound dumb. I've always wondered,are the prices in the PCGS guide,according to PCGS graded slabs or are they grades( Raw) in general?If they are only Slab grades,why not placing raw grades in a guide? Like I said,sorry if this is a brutish question. >>



From the PCGS Price Guide Home Page. MJ

IMPORTANT:

The PCGS Price Guide prices apply only to PCGS-graded coins.
The PCGS Price Guide is a guide to assist the coin buying public in determining values for all important United States rare coins. Before you use the Price Guide, you should read the following information very carefully.

Justacommeman

<< <i>They need to know, Dandy Don Willis and HRH David Home Run Hall.

I find many vagaries such as significant price spreads between coins in the same series with identical grades. How can this be corrected and narrowed down ? The recently added price guide for Colonial Coins will probably have the greatest spreads for coins in the same grade because of many reasons but primarily because the Colonial coins are very difficult to grade.

In the Classic coin series the PCGS price guide tends to reflect the latest auction results. I find this ambiguous because there are high end and low end coins for the grade. I do not believe their + grades have corrected this issue.

I really think PCGS needs more feedback from both collectors of high end and popular mid range ,such as AU 58, coins.

So post away and don't be shy . I certainly am not . If the pricing gurus can get a few helpful hints this thread will be worthwhile.

Stewart Blay >>



And everyone can send your input here. From the PCGS Price Guide Home Page:


YOUR INPUT IS WELCOMED

We welcome pricing input from all PCGS dealers and all serious coin collectors. If you have pricing suggestions, email them to pcgspriceguide@collectors.com. Be sure to include relevant information such as

auction records
private offerings
public sales

…as opposed to just saying, “I think this price is too low (or high).”
We will not be able to personally respond to your e-mails but we will review your suggestions.

joeykoins

<< <i>

<< <i>Sorry for asking this question,it might sound dumb. I've always wondered,are the prices in the PCGS guide,according to PCGS graded slabs or are they grades( Raw) in general?If they are only Slab grades,why not placing raw grades in a guide? Like I said,sorry if this is a brutish question. >>



From the PCGS Price Guide Home Page. MJ

IMPORTANT:

The PCGS Price Guide prices apply only to PCGS-graded coins.
The PCGS Price Guide is a guide to assist the coin buying public in determining values for all important United States rare coins. Before you use the Price Guide, you should read the following information very carefully. >>

Thank you my friend! I should have read down further the page,why I never did all these years,I don't know.Thanks again!

earlyAurum

I really don't use the price guide. I doubt many of us really do. I would think that the most influential pricing source is auction records by a long shot. And to be more specific, it's multiple auction records over a span of time (long and short horizons) that I use to help me price and buy or sell a coin.

TwoSides2aCoin

This could serve as a catalyst and be very helpful. While price guides don't lock prices in stone, they are helpful in determining what one might reasonably expect within about 10 to 30%. I don't know how accurate one can be with those spreads in the open market at any given time, but...

Justacommeman

<< <i>This could serve as a catalyst and be very helpful. While price guides don't lock prices in stone, they are helpful in determining what one might reasonably expect within about 10 to 30%. I don't know how accurate one can be with those spreads in the open market at any given time, but... >>



The other caveat is if you collect eye appealing+ coins the price guides are basically meaningless. MJ

COALPORTER

Really, imo, there are TOO MANY price guides and the way the
prices for a given coin interweave between the guides becomes
mind- numbing and then you realize a coin can be just about
any price you want. How do you explain this?

RYK

I think it is pretty good, especially when considering coins on a relative basis. In the same way that an educated grade opinion cannot be wrong, a well-tended and researched coin price guide cannot be wrong.

Cougar1978

I think very highly of the PGSS pirce gude. It is a good benchmark for market value.

BillJones

I sort of use as the "wish list" for the highest price I'll bid in an auction. Auctions are just nuts these days. I get blown out so often, especially on medals and tokens, I wonder why I continue to bid.

Elcontador

I never look at it so I don't care.

TwoSides2aCoin

Good counterpoint, MJ.

messydesk

From the main price guide page:



<< <i>WHAT DO PCGS PRICES MEAN?
The prices listed in the PCGS Price Guide are average dealer asking prices for PCGS-graded coins. The prices are compiled from various sources including dealer ads in trade papers, dealer fixed price lists and website offerings, significant auctions, and activity at major coin shows. Dealer specialists and expert collectors provide pricing input. Remember that the prices are just a guide, a starting point for asserting value. Some PCGS coins sell for less than the prices listed and some PCGS coins sell for more than the prices listed. >>



Nobody reads that because it's at the bottom of the page and you have to scroll past what you want to get to it. Nevertheless, even if everyone did read that, there is additional guidance specific to each coin type that would be helpful. If, at the top of each price guide page, there was a sentence or two mentioning attributes that contribute to price swings, and how large these swings can be, the prices in the guide would become more meaningful without changing a single one. While the range for an 1880-S Morgan dollar in MS65 is very small unless colorfully toned, the deviation for a copper colonial issue among market acceptable coins can be huge in either direction depending on planchet integrity and color. Also, some coin series will have many market acceptable coins at the high end and not so many lesser coins (classic head half cents, for example), which would seem to make for a bigger downside deviation. Put another way, the average coin isn't necessarily the coin sold for the average price, and the standard deviations in terms of acceptable quality and expected price aren't inferred anywhere.

EagleEye

The PCGS price guide is important because registry set collectors get their collection values from there. It is just a guide, but if sellers and buyers put faith in those numbers, then it is real enough.

STEWARTBLAYNUMIS

Ask Laura Sperber from Legend Numismatics what it will take to win a coin in auction. She has a very good ability to purchase a rare coin in auction .

There is an 1832 Proof Capped Bust Half that she bought out of Eliasberg in 1997 for about $225,000

I can tell you there is a standing offer to
Purchase any PCGS graded 1909 S VDB in ms 67 red for $150,000. So why is the PCGS price guide lower ?

I can tell you the value of high end gem Red Lincoln Cents.

I can also tell you the value/price of high end Indian Cents. But PCGS will probably disagree with me for reasons they will not divulge.

In the end a knowledgeable specialized dealer is worth much more than the PCGS price guide. They should state this in their disclaimer .

Stewart Blay

Stewart

oreville

Stew, keep in mine that most price guides are "reactive" in nature. Even if your 1909-S VDB cent had offers of $300k it would not change the price guide until after the coin actually changed hands for a verified price. Only frquently traded generic coins prices should change based on rising or falling offer prices.
I am sure you understand all this. Special coins are too difficult to price as it is and limiting them to actual transactions would help to keep the prices accurate on a historical basis not on a prospective basis. As you know, offers on special coins can be lowballed or highballed.

PerryHall

When PCGS buys back a coin that turned in a slab or was misgraded, how does their buy back price compared to their price guide?

LindeDad

<< <i>When PCGS buys back a coin that turned in a slab or was misgraded, how does their buy back price compared to their price guide? >>



Oops this can of worms is going to be a sore point with that new Reconsideration service and that 1% fee too I bet.

Casman

<< <i>

<< <i>They need to know, Dandy Don Willis and HRH David Home Run Hall.

I find many vagaries such as significant price spreads between coins in the same series with identical grades. How can this be corrected and narrowed down ? The recently added price guide for Colonial Coins will probably have the greatest spreads for coins in the same grade because of many reasons but primarily because the Colonial coins are very difficult to grade.

In the Classic coin series the PCGS price guide tends to reflect the latest auction results. I find this ambiguous because there are high end and low end coins for the grade. I do not believe their + grades have corrected this issue.

I really think PCGS needs more feedback from both collectors of high end and popular mid range ,such as AU 58, coins.

So post away and don't be shy . I certainly am not . If the pricing gurus can get a few helpful hints this thread will be worthwhile.

Stewart Blay >>



It may be accurate in some places but the combinations of inaccuracy, violations of their own specified rules, and general untrustworthiness make the entire guide suspect and unreliable. Here are some examples using the "The PCGS Price Guide prices apply only to PCGS-graded coins." criteria:
1804 Restrike - Class II. PR63 $4.5mil. It's unique in the Smithsonian. Huh.
Capped Bust Half proof 1832. May not exist. Priced in SEVEN grades. Where'd that info come from?? It's obvious they're good at making stuff up - but how good? And where else?
Actually, use the entire CBH proof half section as an example. >>




I found similar issues with coin facts, incorrect auction information and or/no auction information. I don't get why they update and report the sale of a nickel for example at $12.00 as some sort of important fact yet other coins with auction results in the $1,000+ range show no information? If I have to look up this stuff myself I'm certainly not gonna pay someone else for not doing that.

JeffersonFrog

STEWARTBLAYNUMIS

realone - Jack Lee sold the last 1909 S VDB in PCGS ms 67 red for $150,000 in 2008 and no other of the 9 graded has changed hands since then. The $150,000 offer has been in place since 2008.

So I am not whistling Dixie

The PCGS price guide does have a direct correlation with the buy back that PCGS offers but IMHO should NOT because I have seen collectors buy a misgraded coin at auction for a low price and then sell it back to PCGS for the slabbed grade value. This is wrong and totally unacceptable in my view. The PCGS buy back should be based on the cost of the coin to the collector

An example I can state is a 1969s DDO Lincoln cent graded ms 65 red in 1990 widen a finger smudge developed and was purchased for $17,500 at a BandM auction. In 2004 PCGS paid the collector $75,000 for the coin. I would have only paid the collector $17,500 because he knew what he was buying.

If this happened the price guide could be more accurate

I use to LOVE buying gem red Lincoln cents for grey sheet prices.

Stewart

JeffersonFrog

...

sniocsu

Coin prices are very fluid and dependent upon too many variables (increases in pop, surfaces of coin, mood of buyer and seller...) for any one source to have it right all the time and for every issue.
With that said, I'd like to add that the recent addition of links to recent auctions (including eBay) to the PCGS Coinfacts site will be very helpful to collectors and dealers alike.
-TEJ

2ltdjorn

It seems people are only upset with price guides when they don't work in their favor!

RedTiger

<< <i>Really, imo, there are TOO MANY price guides and the way the
prices for a given coin interweave between the guides becomes
mind- numbing and then you realize a coin can be just about
any price you want. How do you explain this? >>



Coins trade for a wide of prices. Coins are not fungible. Dealers can ask any price they would like. Some folks dump their coins (often inherited coins) for next to nothing. Even for the knowledgeable collectors, perceived quality, and venue can make a huge difference in price paid. Near the low end is low wholesale price, at the top is full retail at a specialty dealer. A single coin might trade five times between dealers for a huge price range in a relatively short time period. Top to bottom can be 1000% (eg $100 at low wholesale in a bulk deal where an entire collection is bought to $1000 at full boat retail ask at the specialty dealer).

Even at a single retail venue such as Teletrade auctions, a generic coin in the same company's holder, such as common MS65 Morgans will trade for a wide range of prices, often 100% from low to high ($1x for a low end coin $2x for a nice example). That doesn't account for other company's holders, toning, die-varieties, that's just on perceived quality for the grade, and only for coins in one company's holder.

Guides are just that guides, nothing is written in stone. Most sellers would like to believe that their coin is high end and deserves top price. On the other side, many potential buyers, would prefer to pay an average price, and dealers often want to buy for a very low end coin price.

Frankcoins

This is what -- the tenth time a thread like this has been started? I think David does a damn good job, the Greysheet has coins that you can't buy for double ask and it's been that way 20 years. Not nearly as much whining about them.

s4ny

According to the Coin Dealer Newsletter, PCGS and NGC coins sell for around 83% of the "price guide" prices. My experience
confirms that. Even Doug Winter offers most of his coins below the PCGS price guide.

Some PCGS prices get close to the scam area. I had a 2003 PCGS MS70 $5 Gold American Eagle. PCGS values them at $475. I bought it
for melt and have never been able to find a buyer willing to pay more than 10% over melt.

ColonelJessup

What percentage of coins other than maxi-coins and mega-coins have prices varying more than two standard deviations from the average, median or norm of its heterogenous group?

Is your supposition based on anecdotal incidents or a broad study of the various dimensions of such groupings?

PCGS transparently supplies a spreadsheet of data of varying utility to various segments of the collecting public. It so states.

Notwithstanding that verifiable policy and its caveats, your crusade leads us all ever closer to the hidden truths so few even suspect may be lurking.

Any body of knowledge has its deficits. These are seemingly encountered when the need for information is most important, even most immediate. Disappointment, chagrin, even rage, at lost treasures, lost opportunities, lost spondulix? All healthy and normal reactions, and not uncommon. Armed with your knowledge you are safer, less at risk, and we know you can feel our pain.

Am I the only one among us who fears that Laurie will allow herself to be coopted and absorbed into the ANA establishment once she sees her picture in the Numismatist?.

Perhaps not. Perhaps the chances of this happening are slim.

I am compelled to suggest that, if offered, we support Stewart's assumed refusal to even consider an invitation to have his photo posted (head-shot, no chick-magnet $1K per month garage-fee street-legal Italian roadster) as a member of the PCGS Board of Experts. In a way, it's a shame. He might set a few things right.

A down-to-earth collector with his ear to the ground and a passion for the truth might leverage his abilities and special knowledge to a lesser degree on the Board of Experts than on, perhaps, the Board of ANA.

lusterlover

<< <i>
In the Classic coin series the PCGS price guide tends to reflect the latest auction results. I find this ambiguous because there are high end and low end coins for the grade. I do not believe their + grades have corrected this issue.

>>



I agree with this point but don't have the answer. A run of a few drecky coins at auction can skew the guide downward. I guess if you're in a buying mode it can work in your favor.