You read it here second: RR Calls end of Bull... Update 10/28 RR .. thats just Bull.. "Never sa

NumbersUsacom

RoadRunner October 27th 2012 Says " Yeah. Silver had a textbook 5 wave move from Oct 2008 - April 2011. Don't know what I was seeing at that time but it certainly wasn't the right thing".

RR calls end of Silver Bull !!

Or is he just being contemplative?

Should we have all sold at 48.00+ ?

derryb

End of silver bull? no. Further decline? yes. good chance we are seeing the beginning of 2009 once again. Metals will mirror equities and hold an inverse relationship to dollar strength as euro crisis picks up speed once again. Metals will eventually break free of these chains and achieve new highs. The panic in economic policy that has driven metals for the last five years remains unchanged and continues to worsen. Uncertainty will once again rule the short term and cash will continue to become the temporary safehaven, just as in 2009.

Additionally, the eventual rise in interest rates will make metal prices continue to newer highs.

pursuitofliberty

I'll wait to see if RR clarifies the call that the Bull is over, but here's one thought;

from 10 to 48 was a massive move, followed by a 60% retrace to the 27ish level, which held, and has been built from

knowing what we know today, we should have sold it all between 46 and 48, and bought it back at 26 to 29

not knowing what tomorrow brings, we do not know if we should have all recently bailed at 34/35, or if that was just a new hurdle that we'll need jump from the last years lows, and which may seem cheap later

I know I'm still holding my stack, and adding to it when the winds of my circumstances dictate

DrBuster

I've got 20+ years to go, let it go down for a year, fine by me.

roadrunner

All I said is that it (April 2011) was the end of a 5 wave move....never said anything about the end of the bull. My entire quote follows:

Yeah. Silver had a textbook 5 wave move from Oct 2008 - April 2011. Don't know what I was seeing at that time but it certainly wasn't the right thing

There are lots of intermediate 5 waves move in a PMs bull market cycle. In that particular case it was either a five wave, 30 month move from Oct 2008 or a 15
month move from Feb 2010. Sure, in hindsight everyone should have sold in the upper $40's and bought it back in the $20's. The 30 yr $50 resistance level was
just too hard to crack. If you look at the 5-35 yr gold to silver ratio charts you will see that at a ratio of 31 there were strong 20 and 25 yr resistance lines that came
into effect. It wasn't going below 30 on that round. On shorter term scales there was also GSR floor support from the 2, 5, and 15 yr lines. All "easy" to see in 20-20
hindsight. GSR chart linked below. Note also that on the 5 yr GSR chart that it has broken back above the 3 yr downtrend line with this May-Sept rally.
The recent pull back has only backtested the trendline. GSR could easily move upwards again from here. In any case there will be a struggle at this key 3 yr trend line.

In either case silver has only seen at most 2 major up moves since 2001. And the 2nd move that began in Oct 2008 may still not be complete.
There is probably still a 3rd up move out there out there that could occur anytime over the next 1-5 years. My target is still $95+ silver with $135 being
the optimum area and $250+ as the mania stage run amock. It would take silver to fall back to under $21 to mortally wound the bull. As a rule I don't spend much time
charting silver because gold is the primary player. If gold heads to the levels needed to balance international debts, silver will do just fine.

GSR charts

derryb

OP should change title to his thread now that he has been corrected

OPA

<< <i>OP should change title to his thread now that he has been corrected >>





I've read what he admitted in the original post and no where did he say that the silver bull is over

Justacommeman

<< <i>

<< <i>OP should change title to his thread now that he has been corrected >>





I've read what he admitted in the original post and no where did he say that the silver bull is over >>



+10

MJ

piecesofme

not knowing what tomorrow brings, we do not know if we should have all recently bailed at 34/35, or if that was just a new hurdle that we'll need jump from the last years lows, and which may seem cheap later

I started selling off back in late April, early May as evidenced by my unedited post here about the 20th post in to the thread.

I have recently started another wave of selling off to again lock in profits.
$32.50 is to $32.00 what $35.50 was to $35 silver, a last gasp before going lower. Don't be surpised by a 30% drop from here by eoy. Don't be surprised by a 30% rise from here by eoy. It wont mattter to me because I am locking in 60% profits while I can.

roadrunner

<< <i>OP should change title to his thread now that he has been corrected >>




But sensationalism sells newspapers.

NumbersUsacom

<< <i>

<< <i>OP should change title to his thread now that he has been corrected >>




But sensationalism sells newspapers. >>



Thought it would sell much much more !!!!

It is getting a little lite around here. Glad for your followup RR.

jmski52

Whew! I've been out on a job site all day and just got back. I didn't even have time to contemplate dumping my silver. Good thing.