So how much did you add?
pursuitofliberty
Posts: 6,909 ✭✭✭✭✭
Over the last year we have had a reasonable string of buying opportunities at or under 30. per oz for Ag
With it over 30. again, although for how long, we don't know yet ... did you add to the stack while the pickings were (at least temporarily) low hanging, or did you pass waiting for lower fruit?
Some would say (and have said) these were not buying opportunities at all, but just part of a longer downward trend. I disagree with that overall, and put some money where my thoughts were. Again, only time will tell.
My son (who started stacking last year in Nov/Dec) and I had a conversation this week about the price movement. I was trying to get him to take a longer view and had him look back before he was a stacker. The question of what has changed in the macro picture over the last year was explored.
My take ... the macro picture hasn't changed hardly an iota, other than the way it is spun.
I believed (and stated) at the end of 2011 that I felt the low 30's were a reasonable valuation for physical. I will state it again, because I still believe it.
I'm small comparitively. I added a few hundred ounces since October of last year, and sold just a few ounces.
On a more historical note;
In August of 2009 (almost 3 years ago to the day), Silver took one more look at 13. and change, and hasn't looked back since.
In August of 2010, Silver was playing in the high teens, and then within a month, it took out 20. and again, it never looked back.
By August 2011, Silver had already went parabolic for a bit (peaking at the end of April after flirting with 50.), and had settled (albeit temporarily) in the 38. to 42 range. Of course, most of us know what happened within the last year.
This August, Silver finally appears to be back in her violent ways and pushed back above 30., after tinkering with lows in the 26's recently.
What will next August bring?
It was a Thursday morning ramble ... but please share your thoughts if you will.
With it over 30. again, although for how long, we don't know yet ... did you add to the stack while the pickings were (at least temporarily) low hanging, or did you pass waiting for lower fruit?
Some would say (and have said) these were not buying opportunities at all, but just part of a longer downward trend. I disagree with that overall, and put some money where my thoughts were. Again, only time will tell.
My son (who started stacking last year in Nov/Dec) and I had a conversation this week about the price movement. I was trying to get him to take a longer view and had him look back before he was a stacker. The question of what has changed in the macro picture over the last year was explored.
My take ... the macro picture hasn't changed hardly an iota, other than the way it is spun.
I believed (and stated) at the end of 2011 that I felt the low 30's were a reasonable valuation for physical. I will state it again, because I still believe it.
I'm small comparitively. I added a few hundred ounces since October of last year, and sold just a few ounces.
On a more historical note;
In August of 2009 (almost 3 years ago to the day), Silver took one more look at 13. and change, and hasn't looked back since.
In August of 2010, Silver was playing in the high teens, and then within a month, it took out 20. and again, it never looked back.
By August 2011, Silver had already went parabolic for a bit (peaking at the end of April after flirting with 50.), and had settled (albeit temporarily) in the 38. to 42 range. Of course, most of us know what happened within the last year.
This August, Silver finally appears to be back in her violent ways and pushed back above 30., after tinkering with lows in the 26's recently.
What will next August bring?
It was a Thursday morning ramble ... but please share your thoughts if you will.
“We are only their care-takers,” he posed, “if we take good care of them, then centuries from now they may still be here … ”
Todd - BHNC #242
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I picked up ~$200 face 90% and ~50 oz. of .999 over the past year and am waiting for the fall/winter up trend. No one knows what this election is going to do to America's faith in the economic system/cash which will in turn somewhat dictate pm prices.
What a strange world we live in nowadays.
edited for spelling.
Too many positive BST transactions with too many members to list.
Knowing this, I had several factors that influenced me to add significantly during this lower $ period, with investing being predominant, alternate methods being second, age/retirement concerns, and growing fear of my bulk in stocks/mutual funds.
I purchased some on the way up to $35 (while learning about unrealistic and artifical hype bandwagon stuff). Then, more $ heavily on the way down, with a lot $ during the sideways ($26.xx to now). Learning again from the backtracking of the original hype statements.
Luck or bad investment, time will tell, but that is also determined by what you do with it, not just its price.
But the risk for newer investors or investments is very high, and I expect a big ride. Those that held for awhile and bought at significately lower did not need to chance the additional purchase. Some have added. Some waiting for a lower on the dip, -but hindsight is easy.
Increased my gold percentage significantly, but realize this is the utmost risk'est part of it. Gold could go up to $2200 and crash to $1400 for years to come. I think I have some time to recover should that occur. But I'll still have the metal. I need to invest and hedge both, but only to the day before I die, so investment is more meaningful to me.
This creepup will go back down, then back up again. Hype is growing, reasons and fundamentals are increasing, so who knows. But the dollar isn't on track to get better, so stuff's going to happen.
Silver is the ace in the hole as gold prices go out of reach for most. Whatever it lost from photography or other uses seems to be becoming overwritten by investing/hoarding, and I hope something changes the ratio. Supply will get tighter and premiums will go up and what a person does with that is based on their objectives. I plan to sell during the highs, overprice during high demand, and take extreme advantage when premiums are high.
<< <i>The can is still being kicked down the road towards an ever-deeping canyon with no plan to pick it up and tote it back to where we started.
I picked up ~$200 face 90% and ~50 oz. of .999 over the past year and am waiting for the fall/winter up trend. No one knows what this election is going to do to America's faith in the economic system/cash which will in turn somewhat dictate pm prices.
What a strange world we live in. nowadays. >>
I am pretty sure that no matter who gets elected at all levels of government, the US government will continue to swim in and continue to amass debt.
https://www.pcgs.com/setregistry/gold/liberty-head-2-1-gold-major-sets/liberty-head-2-1-gold-basic-set-circulation-strikes-1840-1907-cac/alltimeset/268163
I knew it would happen.
Let's not get too overly excited just yet. It may be a nice position for those of us who've stayed on top of it and picked our spots and been lucky enough, (yes part of it is luck, if you wont admit that, you're not being honest with yourself) to still have our head above water. All I'm saying is there is a ton of bagholders out there that are waiting on anything close to the upper $30's to bail and get their money back, because of those who I've talked to and tried to convince to stick it out for a longer outlook..that's all they want at this point. They just want their money back after what they feel was a bait and switch in a rigged game.
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<< <i>All I will add to this thread is a reminder, that there are still alot of people whos cost avg... >>
i bought 10 eagles for $40.xx (on the down slide)
i stoppped stacking until it dropped to $31.xx
stacked approx. 80oz sub $30.00
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I have silver that I purchased at $4 and all the way up to $43. My average is still sub $20.
I bet you're a hard guy to be married to...everything is by design, right?
My ratio (by ounces) is close to 13:1 silver/gold.
My opinion is that whatever economic catastrophe will REALLY ratchet metal into monetary prominence will also be accompanied by a tremendous collapse in trade, stability, and manufacturing.
Silver's fun to think about, but it won't be money in an international sense.
That being said, I've really added to neither as my cost basis in both is so small as to be silly.
So what's wrong with having and executing a plan? I allocate $xx over a given period to PMs and numismatic items. That's after all other bills are paid, the college fund is OK, other investments are made, and the emergency fund is fully stocked. Some purchases are larger than others (oz-wise). I don't try to time the market, and I tend to look long term.
Maybe I gave the wrong impression of what I was talking about, I hope this clarifies it.
<< <i>Keep up the good work there Wings, but coming across a very cool, dare I say rare bar, by chance of just happening to go by your local B&M on any given day of the week is LUCK! We've all done it, just admit to what it is. You had no idea you'd come across those kinds of bars when that happens.
Maybe I gave the wrong impression of what I was talking about, I hope this clarifies it. >>
I have to agree with you on this because it is luck (plus knowledge of what you are looking for) to find a rare silver art bar at a LCS or at a coin show. It is luck in that 1.) You found it before someone else did and 2.) The dealer that sold it to you at a .999 generic premium instead of at a collector's premium. Being at the right place at the right time is luck in my opinion. I have been collecting silver art bars for 4 years and a majority of my finds at the coin shows and at the LCS have been luck because of the reasons stated above. In addition to luck, having the knowledge to identify a rare silver art bar and also having an idea of what it can sell for on ebay also gives you a leg up on everyone else.
Knowledge (of what the dealer is selling) + Luck (being at the right place at the right time) + paying only a .999 generic silver premium for rare bar = a profitable ebay flip if/when you decide to sell it on ebay for a collector premium.
Maybe I gave the wrong impression of what I was talking about, I hope this clarifies it.
I have to agree with you on this because it is luck (plus knowledge of what you are looking for) to find a rare silver art bar at a LCS or at a coin show. It is luck in that 1.) You found it before someone else did and 2.) The dealer that sold it to you at a .999 generic premium instead of at a collector's premium. Being at the right place at the right time is luck in my opinion. I have been collecting silver art bars for 4 years and a majority of my finds at the coin shows and at the LCS have been luck because of the reasons stated above. In addition to luck, having the knowledge to identify a rare silver art bar and also having an idea of what it can sell for on ebay also gives you a leg up on everyone else.
Knowledge (of what the dealer is selling) + Luck (being at the right place at the right time) + paying only a .999 generic silver premium for rare bar = a profitable ebay flip if/when you decide to sell it on ebay for a collector premium.
Couldn't have said it better myself
Fellas, leave the tight pants to the ladies. If I can count the coins in your pockets you better use them to call a tailor. Stay thirsty my friends......
<< <i>Silver is the VERY LAST thing I would add. If it manages to stage some significant rally, I will swap it for the money metal, gold.
My ratio (by ounces) is close to 13:1 silver/gold.
My opinion is that whatever economic catastrophe will REALLY ratchet metal into monetary prominence will also be accompanied by a tremendous collapse in trade, stability, and manufacturing.
Silver's fun to think about, but it won't be money in an international sense.
That being said, I've really added to neither as my cost basis in both is so small as to be silly. >>
There are advantages to both. Here is a contrarian vision that is interesting:
"GOLD vs. SILVER
"Alas, poor silver is the Rodney Dangerfield of precious metals—it can’t get no respect. It certainly should merit respect, since its 20th century performance has far outpaced gold. It’s volatility and superior fundamentals ought to make it much more attractive than gold."
GOLD vs. SILVER
http://the-moneychanger.com/articles/why_silver_will_outperform_gold_400
There are plenty of arguments on the Kitco site for gold, with the most hysterical gold bugs seeing phenomenal rises in the near future. Silver is more volatile. I am not nervous holding it above $30/oz..