How important is the grade assigned by a TPG service in valuing the coin?

TahoeDale

One would think the grade is a very important consideration in the price one pays for a coin.

But here is an example of a coin that has sold over the last 5 years in AU 58 that has commanded
a 15 times difference in price. And it is not a colorful commem vs a white one.

The 1798 small eagle dollar-with 13 stars- is a tough coin to find in AU, much less AU 58. It has brought between 23,000
and 356,000 since 2007, with each coin having been graded AU58 by the 2 leading services. In 2009, in the Joe Thomas sale in Cincy,
an NGC 58 brought 23K. 2 years earlier, a PC 58 hammered for 200,000( now a PC 61). In May 2011, another PC 58( originally
from the Cardinal collection) --356,000.

And most recently, an NGC 58 did not sell when the high bid was 60,000.

Tells us a lot about the difference in quality of an AU 58 grade!

lasvegasteddy

grade is and always will be but one aspect of of a coins value but eye appeal trumps all
of late
step back when a gold bean is in the equation
color sure can twist things up too

magikbilly

let's have real fun - crack 'em all and resbmit

Eric

TwoSides2aCoin

Grade is important but the presentation and venue are equally important.
Value is always perceived and not so much by the grade. We've seen ridiculous money spent on coins that sometimes do not seem "important" at all to us, individually. Ah, but collectively ... the VALUE is determined by so much more.

joeykoins

Grade is #1. How many transactions have been finalized and been the main equation, as to otherwise? The" Grade" will, of the majority of the time, have the final word in the matter! Esp. If wrapped in the right plastic (PCGS,NGC).

LindeDad

I would say in about 98% of coin deals the grade is the key element in setting price. There are always the ultra rare and tarnished in the mix that skew the field at times.

dizzyfoxx

<< <i>grade is and always will be but one aspect of of a coins value but eye appeal trumps all
of late
step back when a gold bean is in the equation
color sure can twist things up too >>



Well said.

Peacemonkey

The 58 grade was the catalyst for my ethics thread. I wanted to discuss the broad range of the 58 grade and use an example from ebay but it is still live.

TahoeDale

Peacemonkey,

Like I said on your thread, let it out. Or if you have other collectors you correspond with, keep it private. Either way, your grading skills, and pricing knowledge will be increased with conversations with others in the series.

If this is a morgan dollar or indian cent, I would be of no help. But a CBH or early dollar--be glad to express an opinion, on grade or price.

And that's what is the main problem with over-graded coins--how much do I discount the price because I do not agree with the grade.

A lot easier to pay a premium for a pq one.

tradedollarnut

IMO, grade is not as important for early material in the 58-61 range - the value realized is almost interchangeable. What matters more are the individual attributes of the coin.

For example, Cardinal has often stated that the 1794 dollar with all the adjustment marks in PCGS AU58 is probably technically a 61. IMO, even if in a 61 holder the coin would sell for about the same as it does now due to the distracting adjustment marks. The grade on the holder just doesn't matter.

DIMEMAN

I think the answer is in your post. NGC vs Pcgs.

Bayard1908

The Joseph Thomas auction was a bunch of retreads that were purchased at the top of the market. Prices were depressed, and the consignor took some steep losses.

keyman64

Assuming you have a problem free coin...if the coin is RARE and DEMAND is HIGH then you can toss price guides out the window. The grade on the holder will not matter much.

For common material the grade on the holder can dictate everything.

Coinosaurus

For museum type coins I think you can throw it out the window. Everyone made a fuss about that one 1804 dollar going from EF45 to AU58. It didn't matter. The only thing that counted was that the coin was authenticated. PCGS should have a grading designation that indicates "this coin is so important that anything else we could say about it would be insignificant."

oreville

Good question.

Do not have an answer. Have to give it some thought.

crispy

Always try to see the coin in hand before making your decision. The rarity of the coin will somtimes dictate whether or not some of the TPGs turn a blind eye to previous cleanings (hairlines, etc...). This would seem to be an acceptable market practice in some instances. It would also defeat the purpose IMHO, so you need to proceed with caution. Try to have as many experienced and trusted experts look at the coin as possible if you lack expertease in that particluar area. Like the "Car Fax" commercials, you need the whole story before you make any decisions.

Unknown

This content has been removed.

yellowkid

It can be very important, or not

Nic

<< <i>IMO, grade is not as important for early material in the 58-61 range - the value realized is almost interchangeable. What matters more are the individual attributes of the coin.

For example, Cardinal has often stated that the 1794 dollar with all the adjustment marks in PCGS AU58 is probably technically a 61. IMO, even if in a 61 holder the coin would sell for about the same as it does now due to the distracting adjustment marks. The grade on the holder just doesn't matter. >>



Agree, though would extend the range to 58-62.

That 1794 $ is a coin unto itself. Not for me though the originality means something.

The "Thomas" Collection had many great coins.

As to Dales ? The TPG opinion means more with common and highest graded coins.

K

yosclimber

"valuing" vs. "auction records for different coins graded AU58" are not really the same.
"valuing" is "what should this coin sell for if offered in a good venue, this year".
It is a theoretical concept, and the result is a random variable. You could try to estimate, say, the mean of the random variable.
Observed prices will "realizations" of the random variable, and will depend on other things as well.

You imply that the coins were of different quality, which could certainly be true.
But the auction prices will also be a function of the venue and how many serious bidders there were.

A simpler example is to look at prices over time for a single coin.
The prices will vary, while the coin itself (usually) hasn't changed.

TahoeDale

yesclimber,

While a single coin may vary over time, and venue, and number of bidders, etc., the original thesis was a big difference in quality of the grade AU 58 for a certain variety early dollar. And the resulting price realized at auction.

That price(s) will reflect the market value at the time.

I also agree that there were some fab coins in the Joe Thomas sale, Even though the collector may have lost money on many( due to the buy prices being high), I along with several other bidders got a chance at some very nice examples in many series.

I found 4 coins for my early bust collection--all at a very reasonable price, due to market conditions at the time. 1796 ED in PC 62, 1800 Americai in AU 58.

And 2 CBH's that crossed to PCGS, one at a grade lower, and 1 at the NGC grade on the slab.

Wish I could have bought more!

jesbroken

It may mean everything or nothing, according to the coin, the market, timing, color preferences, or several other items, but as previously mentioned on most coins it is paramount.
Jim

lcoopie

Rarity
Can trump grade

For you pinochle/bridge players



I'll be the one to add holder type
And most recently sticker status to the equation

SeattleSlammer

How important is the grade assigned by a TPG service in valuing the coin?



Let's be real. In most cases it's extremely important.

TahoeDale

I tend to agree that the grade by a professsional grading service means a ton, in most cases.

But as we see in the 1798 dollar, there are other factors that will detrermine the ultimate price to be paid.

It has to do with quality, and the coins individual look. Another big spread in pricing has occurred with the 1795 FH dollar in 58. Guides may be around 40 to 50K, but depending on the coin, I have seen prices realized between 24 and 90 K. On the low end, less than AU 53, and on the high end almost MS 62 money.

And it is not just the plastic that causes the spread.

ambro51

In Vermonts, and probably most colonials, it's all but meaningless. At a recent Stacks auction there were two Ryder 9 baby heads. One was PCGS vf25, one uncertified but graded by Stacks vf30. One coin sold for 7600$ and one for 130$

Bayard1908

<< <i>

<< <i>The Joseph Thomas auction was a bunch of retreads that were purchased at the top of the market. Prices were depressed, and the consignor took some steep losses.[/q

The above quote couldn't be farther from the truth. I guess the old addage another man's garbage blah blah blah. The Thomas collection did have some coins that have been known to be seen around the block a couple of times but that doesn't make them bad coins or the rest all bad, although it does make them seem unfresh for sure. The Thomas collection was a lot of coins, and a lot of great coins mixed in with a bunch that were not at all fresh. Many were all practically the finest known although some were only the finest known by grade and not by eye appeal. It seems Thomas wanted the best NOW and didn't want to wait for the most eye appealing all the time. But he ran into financial trouble and didn't put a reserve on his coins so he let a great many go at bargain basement prices that maybe make it look like cheap stuff but I can assure you many were top shelf stuff. I only wish I had more dinero at the time and were able to buy a bunch of his inventory. Many of Sompson coins were also the highest graded but not the most eye appealing but his shouldn't be classified as a bunch of retreads either. Thomas should have been a litttle more patient but heck we all at times are impatient with our NOW got to have it society. He didn't have his coins long either. >>



You seem to have seized on a straw man. I never said the coins were of low quality. Many of the coins sold for mid-five figures, hardly what I'd call junk. I said they were retreads; i.e., they hadn't been off the market for very long before being put up for sale again. Some of the coins were bought at Heritage less than one year before they were resold by Heritage. In the down market of 2009, that resulted in lower prices. Even if the market hadn't declined, lower prices likely would have been realized because bidders didn't have to compete with Thomas the second time around. Incidentally, if Thomas plowed all his coin money back into the stock market in early 2009, he probably made out just fine financially.

Elcontador

For what I collect, the coin's grade is critical. Whether or not I buy a particular coin depends on if I agree with the coin's particular grade, where I think said coin is on the spectrum of coins in said grade, and the price asked for the coin.

In all of my years of collecting, I have only seen one coin where price was not an issue for me. "Bigger fish in the pond" see more of these coins than I do.

SeattleSlammer

<< <i>In Vermonts, and probably most colonials, it's all but meaningless. At a recent Stacks auction there were two Ryder 9 baby heads. One was PCGS vf25, one uncertified but graded by Stacks vf30. One coin sold for 7600$ and one for 130$ >>





So the slabbed example brought the big money? In that case the TPG made all the difference. That's actually very meaningful. At least as it pertains to answering the OP's question.

yosclimber

I think I understand the point better now - in the AU58-MS61 or 62 range, the grade is difficult to assign (aka subject to error).
Perhaps because the grader is attempting to weigh wear, luster and eye appeal, and the coins in this range may vary widely in how these are mixed.
The differences in prices realized would likely be amplified when AU58 is near the finest known grade.

It would be more conclusive to follow a few specific coins that traded frequently in similar big auctions, to see if the price difference is maintained.
But the 15x is likely to represent something real.
It might be as simple as the NGC AU58 example being overgraded, or having some blemish that buyers want to avoid.

mkman123

If I buy a coin, I usually want slabbed for authentication reasons, if its nonslabbed, I'm not gna pay a slabbed price. Also for me I just buy coins with the look I like and of course the price has to be in my price range

yosclimber

> And most recently, an NGC 58 did not sell when the high bid was 60,000.

So the reserve was > 60,000; the seller was hoping for maybe something in the 200k range?

Can you tell if it was the same coin that sold for 23k in 2009?