Estimating "buying chances" based on absolute rarity

oneor11

Hi everyone.

I'm trying to get a feel for how estimated extant populations for any particular coin affect how often I'm going to get the chance to spend the money on it. I would like you more experienced folks that have been in the hobby much longer than me to ground me on absolute rarity and how patient I should be to get a coin at the 'right' price.

To begin, I collect coins for the history and beauty of them- not for the investment. But with that said, I need to be able to be somewhat in the realm of reason to justify the purchase with my wife, etc. so they can have some recouping of costs if there's an emergency and we need to sell.

Okay, so my question: Is an estimated population of around 200 or 250 (numismatic rarity 6.6/10) considered a rare coin? How often would you expect a coin like that to come up for sale? Right now there is a CC coin I would like for my type collection that is up for sale. I would like to buy it but the price is exceeding established market value right now by about 25%...like paying a VF price for a VG coin. To me I would think it's worth it. My reasoning is that there are coins in my 'modern' (relatively) Peace Dollar collection that may have an estimated 40,000 in existence for a grade tier (numismatic rarity 2/10) yet sell higher than this CC coin with an estimated pop of only 250. And I can get those Peace Dollars on any given day from nearly anywhere I look (ebay, Collector's Corner, Heritage, Teletrade, etc.) (quality of the coin aside). Yet a determined search for this CC coin yields no other sales happening. I just don't get the logic of how the market works pricing-wise.

If I let it pass, is there a likely chance, population-wise, that I can 'easily' get one at a coin show or up on auction again within current market values without waiting for years? What have you guys seen? As always, thanks in advance for your help.

Jacob

TomB

Part of your answer depends upon the niche that the coin occupies.

If a CBH or early large cent has an estimated population of 200-250 pieces for the date then there is an excellent chance that many collectors or dealers will own multiple examples due to die marriages. This will make the competition for those pieces that come to market more fierce and will likely lead to the coin being offered less frequently than you may imagine. Additionally, if the coin has heavy demand by type collectors because it is a one-year type, such as the 1796 Draped Bust Small Eagle quarter, then the coin will have a higher basal value and might not appear as often as otherwise suggested simply because everyone who collects by type will need that particular issue. Lastly, if the coin has a relatively low price then it may be held tightly by others who appreciate the absolute difficulty of obtaining the piece vs. the relatively low price of acquisition.

BillJones

It all depends upon where this Carson City mint coin falls in a series. Usually Carson Coins that are NOT Morgan dollars sell for more than what the catalog says IF they are nice for the grade. Since you have not been specific, I'm taking it that you are looking at a coin in VG for which the seller wants VF money. I'm not sure if people are pounding down the doors to buy a VG unless it is a known rarity that usually comes in low grade.

You might review the PCGS and NGC pop reports to see if this coin really does generally come in low grade. If it does then the VG might be okay. If there seems to be a fair number of VF, EF and AU pieces around, this might not be a good buy.

The trouble is you often don't learn about a particular coin until you have been looking for them for a while. Sometimes you hit the right coin right off the bat when you start looking, but often you don't. It all depends about what you know about this issue of coin.

Beyond this general stuff, I don't know what else to say. If you state the date and denomination others might be able to help. At best I'm a "book expert" when it comes to Carson City coins. I have books that tell me about how tough each Carson City coin is, but since I don't collect them in detail, I don't know that information first hand.

ebaybuyer

what "market value" are you using to determine the value ? if you are using any published price guide, it is most likely underpriced by 25% or more.

BillJones

To answer you lead question the chances of obtaining a coin with a surviving population of 200 to 250 pieces depends upon how popular the series is. If it part of the "dark side," like a token or medal, your chances are pretty good because fewer collectors are chasing it. In fact a population of 200 to 250 for a 19th century mint medal would be view as "common." If it is a popular piece it might be rarely offered and then only at high prices that might be beyond your ability to pay. There is no absolute answer to this.

oneor11

<< <i>what "market value" are you using to determine the value ? if you are using any published price guide, it is most likely underpriced by 25% or more. >>



I look at the following numbers to get me in the ball park:
1. PCGS CoinFacts values to give me the upper limit
2. NumisMedia to establish a target price
3. Recent Heritage and Teletrade auctions to examine current trends and swings around this target price

These are just guides for me though.


Thanks for all of the input everyone. What I was looking at was the 1873-CC Arrows, graded VG-8 currently on Teletrade. I think it is accurately graded (though not at the top of the grade) and seems to my amateur eye to have a nice original look. I'm thinking it would make an interesting type coin to fill the Liberty Seated Half, Motto & Arrows slot in my type set. The next bid though, with buyer's premium, would put it at about 25% over.

Jacob

BillJones

As a type collector my tastes run more toward higher grade pieces to get a good representation of the design. I don't know what you were thing about paying for the 1873-CC, but here is the type piece in my collection. The purists don't like it because it has been dipped, but it suits me fine. The coin is graded MS-63, and I paid $1,850 for this one.

oneor11

Wow Bill thanks for sharing your coin. Very sharp example. How can you tell it was dipped?

I have a very atypical type set collecting style. For my Peace Dollar set, I want them all to be 64/65+ quality. But my type set will appear to be a very mixed and random set of coins to the casual observer. Here is what my type set of business circulation strikes from 1793-1964 may look like:

1. A collection containing all of the mint marks.
2. Worn coins that may have a high absolute rarity
3. Worn coins in a particular historically significant year, so I can mentally connect with the people of the time who may have held it and write stories about them (I write short stories about each of my coins).
4. Pristine examples to show the glory of the design. For instance, I may have a worn, rare Liberty Seated Quarter, but a pristine LIberty Seated Half to show the design detail.
5. Examples that show errors or demonstrated what workmanship quality was like at the mint at a particular time....repunched mint marks, repunched dates, overdates, etc.
6. Coins exhibiting the state of raw materials, the quality of planchet creation, and the strike of the coin due to machinery or settings. Like a gold coin with planchet defects (if they were common for the year/mm), having spots because of the improper mixing of copper and gold, or a weak strike is great for me.
7. Hopefully a coin or two of a shipwreck pedigree. I am particularly interested in the SS Republic and its role in the Reconstruction of the South.

I feel this assortment helps me connect to history a lot better.

As far as the 1873-CC, market seems to be $300-$350 on that. I was willing to pay about $460 for it. But low and behold Teletrade listed it as "not sold". I just don't get that. I could have missed it, but I'm pretty sure I didn't see any kind of reserve message on that coins. And for a price exceeding $380, I couldn't imagine it woudn't have met a reserve. I hate how stuff magically disappears from my bid/want list and then turns up as 'not sold'. It happens often. I will need to start taking screen shots of my bids and the product display screen I think to keep it all straight.

Thanks again for sharing your coin.

Jacob

fc

250 coins still surviving is a lot to me unless it is a very very popular series.
Some rare half eagles with less then a 100 known... always seems to have a couple
for sale per year. Naturally you might wait 2-5 years for a nice one to show up and
when it does paying a bit more (in most cases) is normal.

jayPem

I find the concept for you type set very intrigueing, I get it !

mkman123

Rarity and value don't always go hand in hand. Look at the 1955 DDO penny, its not rare as there are many slabbed examples but its very desirable. Now on the other hand there are $5 and $10 gold with very low pcgs and ngc population overall that don't go for a lot over melt, etc.

ebaybuyer

i wouldnt buy that one with the assumption that there are only 200-250 surviving. if you bought it, you didnt do too badly, if you didnt, i can promise you wont have to wait years for another opportunity. months maybe but definately not years.