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When Israel attacks the Iranian nuclear facilities.............

PerryHallPerryHall Posts: 46,111 ✭✭✭✭✭
in Precious Metals
.........how will this affect the price of Gold and Silver? If Iran retaliates by closing the Strait of Hormuz, the price of oil will go up. How will this affect the price of gold and silver? Any guesses and opinions?

Worry is the interest you pay on a debt you may not owe.
"Paper money eventually returns to its intrinsic value---zero."----Voltaire
"Everything you say should be true, but not everything true should be said."----Voltaire

Comments

  • BarndogBarndog Posts: 20,490 ✭✭✭✭✭


    << <i>.........how will this affect the price of Gold and Silver? If Iran retaliates by closing the Strait of Hormuz, the price of oil will go up. How will this affect the price of gold and silver? Any guesses and opinions? >>



    and don't forget, the US will put a stop to Iran's attempt to seal off the oil routes, that has to be factored
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  • PerryHallPerryHall Posts: 46,111 ✭✭✭✭✭


    << <i>

    << <i>.........how will this affect the price of Gold and Silver? If Iran retaliates by closing the Strait of Hormuz, the price of oil will go up. How will this affect the price of gold and silver? Any guesses and opinions? >>



    and don't forget, the US will put a stop to Iran's attempt to seal off the oil routes, that has to be factored >>



    Does Obama have the will to start another war?

    Worry is the interest you pay on a debt you may not owe.
    "Paper money eventually returns to its intrinsic value---zero."----Voltaire
    "Everything you say should be true, but not everything true should be said."----Voltaire

  • derrybderryb Posts: 36,792 ✭✭✭✭✭


    << <i>

    << <i>.........how will this affect the price of Gold and Silver? If Iran retaliates by closing the Strait of Hormuz, the price of oil will go up. How will this affect the price of gold and silver? Any guesses and opinions? >>



    and don't forget, the US will put a stop to Iran's attempt to seal off the oil routes, that has to be factored >>


    Actually, because of the lack of open sea, warships are quite vulnerable to missile attack. The ships will have very short notice in such closed quarters and a Russian made sunburn missile is one of the fastest and flies very low. Our navy ships are actually sitting ducks at the moment. Reprisal is their only real defense. Having installed a number of Phalynx systems on US destroyers, I believe it is about the only hope one of our ships would have. Just the shrapnel from a destroyed missile traveling toward the ship at a very high rate of speed and at such close range will cause serious damage. I would not want to be on those ships if the missiles become inbound.

    Any conflict there will spike gold and oil upwards. A quick and very deadly ending will be the only option.

    "Interest rates, the price of money, are the most important market. And, perversely, they’re the market that’s most manipulated by the Fed." - Doug Casey

  • SpoolySpooly Posts: 2,108 ✭✭✭
    The US fleet keeps target locks on all of Iran's Navy ships (at sea and at port) and ground based anti-ship missile batterys. The fight would last ....... about the flight time of US anti ship and cruise missiles. I don't even think Iranians would risk losing all of their aircraft in a air to air fight. A lot of Navy pilots would make Ace.... very quickly.

    The only way to destroy a US Battle group is with nukes.

    Obama will have no choice if Israel attacks Iran. He will have to defend the Strait of Hormuz.

    The question is what kind of crazy terrorist crap has Iran planned? Iran will hit soft targets.
    Si vis pacem, para bellum

    In God We Trust.... all others pay in Gold and Silver!
  • derrybderryb Posts: 36,792 ✭✭✭✭✭
    You're forgetting that Iran will have to fire first and when they do it will be all at once. Once airborne the sunburst is a very fast and bad opponent to deal with, especially in multiples. The close proximity of the land based missiles makes them a very serious threat; reaction time to their impact is short. Remember the potential battle zone is not the wide open sea. It will be quick and Iran will loose, but there will be serious US Navy casualties.

    "Interest rates, the price of money, are the most important market. And, perversely, they’re the market that’s most manipulated by the Fed." - Doug Casey

  • streeterstreeter Posts: 4,312 ✭✭✭✭✭
    Iran will have a revolution before they do something real stupid like take on the U.S. Navy. Iranian people are smart people. If they go toe to toe with Isreal, then Isreal has to go all in and that is not going to be pretty.
    Have a nice day
  • derrybderryb Posts: 36,792 ✭✭✭✭✭
    It boils down to the mindset of the those with their fingers on the buttions. Suicide is nothing to a fanatic.

    "Interest rates, the price of money, are the most important market. And, perversely, they’re the market that’s most manipulated by the Fed." - Doug Casey

  • PerryHallPerryHall Posts: 46,111 ✭✭✭✭✭
    If Iran attempted to close the Strait of Hormuz, I would expect that the US would take out all of Iran's navy and related facilities before moving into the area. So how will all of this effect PM's? I assume they would rise sharply in price until the dust settles and then they would fall back but still be higher than before the conflict.

    Worry is the interest you pay on a debt you may not owe.
    "Paper money eventually returns to its intrinsic value---zero."----Voltaire
    "Everything you say should be true, but not everything true should be said."----Voltaire

  • RedTigerRedTiger Posts: 5,608 ✭
    Israel already attacked. Didn't you read the news of massive underground explosions and the brazen and public assassination of the top Iranian nuclear expert? If folks are expecting a "frontal assault" such as an air raid using marked aircraft, you may be waiting a long time. Unmarked drones or covert such as truck bombs or perhaps even computer hacker attacks are more likely. Software could be planted so that any nuclear devices and delivery devices produced would look like they will work, but fail at critical moments.

    Same with those expecting a naval or air battle in the Straits, it may be a long wait. Iran would use mines and small fast boats or small submersibles to do the mining. What tanker captain or oil company will risk $1 billion worth of oil, if there is a chance of mines in the gulf?
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  • derrybderryb Posts: 36,792 ✭✭✭✭✭
    Iran knows they only have one quick shot at the fleet. There will be no attempt to close the strait with a declaration. If "closed" it will be the refusal of commercial vessels to enter the temporary war zone.

    "Interest rates, the price of money, are the most important market. And, perversely, they’re the market that’s most manipulated by the Fed." - Doug Casey

  • pmcollectourpmcollectour Posts: 1,211 ✭
    I think a UN team led by Jimmy Carter could handle this dilemma.
  • gsa1fangsa1fan Posts: 5,566 ✭✭✭


    << <i>I think a UN team led by Jimmy Carter could handle this dilemma. >>



    ROTFLMFAO!image
    Avid collector of GSA's.
  • droopyddroopyd Posts: 5,381 ✭✭✭
    Israel ain't gonna bomb Iran. Collateral (i.e., civilian) damage from retaliatory missile strikes on Tel Aviv would be unacceptable.

    And I don't think Iran would ever actually use a nuke. They just want to be able to have that threat to hold over people the same as we and the North Koreans do.
    Me at the Springfield coin show:
    image
    60 years into this hobby and I'm still working on my Lincoln set!
  • PerryHallPerryHall Posts: 46,111 ✭✭✭✭✭


    << <i>Israel ain't gonna bomb Iran. Collateral (i.e., civilian) damage from retaliatory missile strikes on Tel Aviv would be unacceptable.

    And I don't think Iran would ever actually use a nuke. They just want to be able to have that threat to hold over people the same as we and the North Koreans do. >>



    I don't think Israel can take the chance of a nuclear armed Iran considering their stated goal of the total destruction of Israel and all jews.

    Worry is the interest you pay on a debt you may not owe.
    "Paper money eventually returns to its intrinsic value---zero."----Voltaire
    "Everything you say should be true, but not everything true should be said."----Voltaire

  • CCC2010CCC2010 Posts: 1,997 ✭✭✭
    They are already talkin about gas prices north of $4 this spring-summer.... Those Iranian hardliners will continue to accellerate their nuclear program hoping that once they have that nuclear weapon that Israel and the US wont touch them....They will attempt to close the straight of Hormuz to see the resolve of the US and its allies. They will activate sleeper cells and hit targets all over the world particularly US/Israeli businesses etc. God forbid we might even see some hits here in the mainland too.
    All these i am sure our goverment knows already and have this worst case scenario already presented to those that will have to deal with them incase they come into play. Again I hope this does not happen.
    There are a lot of good pro democracy loving people in Iran BUT those that are in power subscribe to a different ideology/mentality and they are the ones that decide what to do. Yes they are the ones with their finger on the trigger. The repercussions regarding that decision is very unfortunate for those that want real change in their government. They have already protested but from time and time again most of them have been already arrested,tortured and worst put to death. Hopefully another solution would present itself to prevent this from happening... Only time will tell.
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  • sbfinleysbfinley Posts: 357 ✭✭


    << <i>Israel ain't gonna bomb Iran. Collateral (i.e., civilian) damage from retaliatory missile strikes on Tel Aviv would be unacceptable.

    And I don't think Iran would ever actually use a nuke. They just want to be able to have that threat to hold over people the same as we and the North Koreans do. >>




    I agree. The world is getting wiser, during the Cold War it was "assured mutual destruction." Now it's "Assured destruction." There are two countries that could go toe to toe with our Armed Forces and they aren't going to pull the trigger anytime soon.
  • RedTigerRedTiger Posts: 5,608 ✭
    Barrons has an article on this topic in the issued dated 2/13/12. Unfortunately, a paid subscription is required to read it online. Those interested might try their local library.

    subtitle lead for article:
    intelligence consultant George Friedman rates the odds that Israel strikes Iran's nukes at one-in-four. But if it does, casualties could be heavy and $300-a-barrel oil is likely.

    Investment blog: gold, stocks and more
  • perkdogperkdog Posts: 30,595 ✭✭✭✭✭


    << <i>You're forgetting that Iran will have to fire first and when they do it will be all at once. Once airborne the sunburst is a very fast and bad opponent to deal with, especially in multiples. The close proximity of the land based missiles makes them a very serious threat; reaction time to their impact is short. Remember the potential battle zone is not the wide open sea. It will be quick and Iran will loose, but there will be serious US Navy casualties. >>



    The US Navy is by far the most powerful in the world, the countermeasures that our warships have are second to none. IF Iran was foolish enough to launch a full scale attack on our Battle Group yes there would be cassualties but the devestating response would not be worth it to Iran, they would lose their entire Navy and their military installations would be bombed into oblivion. Iran's biggest weapon is its threat to cause trouble in the region, they would gain nothing by taking out a warship of ours and damaging a few others, they know this and will not engage.

  • rickoricko Posts: 98,724 ✭✭✭✭✭
    The only sure thing in the Iran/Israel/U.S situation is that SOMETHING is going to happen. There will be some sort of confrontation/attack, and how far it goes beyond that depends on too many factors to compute here. I am sure the various scenarios have been studied extensively in the appropriate circles. Hold on tight, it will be rougher than any 8 second ride...Cheers, RickO
  • perkdogperkdog Posts: 30,595 ✭✭✭✭✭
    Yet The United States Navy rescues pathetic Iranian Navy Ships and personal from Somali Pirates....
  • derrybderryb Posts: 36,792 ✭✭✭✭✭


    << <i>

    << <i>You're forgetting that Iran will have to fire first and when they do it will be all at once. Once airborne the sunburst is a very fast and bad opponent to deal with, especially in multiples. The close proximity of the land based missiles makes them a very serious threat; reaction time to their impact is short. Remember the potential battle zone is not the wide open sea. It will be quick and Iran will loose, but there will be serious US Navy casualties. >>



    The US Navy is by far the most powerful in the world, the countermeasures that our warships have are second to none. IF Iran was foolish enough to launch a full scale attack on our Battle Group yes there would be cassualties but the devestating response would not be worth it to Iran, they would lose their entire Navy and their military installations would be bombed into oblivion. Iran's biggest weapon is its threat to cause trouble in the region, they would gain nothing by taking out a warship of ours and damaging a few others, they know this and will not engage. >>



    Countermeasures are heavily dependent on response time. Distance between missiles and targets is very short in the bathtub-like Persian Gulf. Additionally the Russian made sunburn anti-ship missle flies twice the speed of sound and as low as nine feet off the ground or water. It features a violent pop-up maneuver for its terminal approach to throw off Phalanx and other U.S. anti-missile defense systems. I hope our on-scene naval leaders are not as over confident in their defense capabilites. Being so could be a fatal mistake.

    "Interest rates, the price of money, are the most important market. And, perversely, they’re the market that’s most manipulated by the Fed." - Doug Casey

  • OPAOPA Posts: 17,119 ✭✭✭✭✭


    << <i>Yet The United States Navy rescues pathetic Iranian Navy Ships and personal from Somali Pirates.... >>



    I don't believe they were Iranian Navy Ships. Even the pirates aren't that stupid to attack a Navy Ship. More like merchant or fishing vessels.
    "Bongo drive 1984 Lincoln that looks like old coin dug from ground."
  • fishcookerfishcooker Posts: 3,446 ✭✭
    I vote that gold and silver would decline in the short term. People would want cash.
  • derrybderryb Posts: 36,792 ✭✭✭✭✭
    A decline in PMs would be a result of a rush to buy into escalating oil prices.

    Interesting analysis from a highly respected geopolitical columnist:

    What Does the Ayatollah Want?

    "Interest rates, the price of money, are the most important market. And, perversely, they’re the market that’s most manipulated by the Fed." - Doug Casey

  • derrybderryb Posts: 36,792 ✭✭✭✭✭
    The Deflationary Undertow Before The Inflationary Wave

    Gonazlo makes a good argument that PMs will initially tank (buying opportunity) and then soar.

    "Interest rates, the price of money, are the most important market. And, perversely, they’re the market that’s most manipulated by the Fed." - Doug Casey

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