1982 Topps Traded Ripken...things that make you go hmmm
fergie23
Posts: 2,154 ✭✭✭✭
So I noticed that 4SC had sold a bunch of PSA 10 1982 Topps Traded Ripkens in January (6) and was wondering how many more they might have...
I checked the cert numbers for the sold Ripkens and searched for the first Ripken graded in the sub 19247492. I then jumped ahead and tried to find the last Ripken graded in the sub 19247678. Every card from 19247492 to 19247678 was a 1982 TT Ripken. There was one number in the sequence that didn't have a card associated with it 19247553 but the card prior and the card after were both 82 TT Ripkens so I am assuming that 7553 got a min size no grade. I think it is safe to say that 19247492 -> 19247678 is part of a single sub. 4SC sold 19247495 on Jan 10th and 19247580 on Jan 31st and 19247676 on Jan 30th.
On this mammoth Ripken sub 4SC how did they do???
Here is the breakdown:
They received 60 PSA 10s.
They received 103 PSA 9s.
They received 24 others included two 5s.
Looking at the pop report there have been 8000 or so 1982 TT Ripkens submitted with 155 PSA 10s for a rate of just under 2% of those graded were 10s. Somehow 4SC managed to have ~32% of their submitted Ripkens receive 10s on this sub. Hard to imagine that 4SC managed to unearth an 82 TT find that resulted in over 1/3rd of the PSA 10s ever graded...
Admittedly I had some free time on my hands this morning but initially perusing the cert verification for this sub I could not quite believe the results.
Cheers,
Robb
I checked the cert numbers for the sold Ripkens and searched for the first Ripken graded in the sub 19247492. I then jumped ahead and tried to find the last Ripken graded in the sub 19247678. Every card from 19247492 to 19247678 was a 1982 TT Ripken. There was one number in the sequence that didn't have a card associated with it 19247553 but the card prior and the card after were both 82 TT Ripkens so I am assuming that 7553 got a min size no grade. I think it is safe to say that 19247492 -> 19247678 is part of a single sub. 4SC sold 19247495 on Jan 10th and 19247580 on Jan 31st and 19247676 on Jan 30th.
On this mammoth Ripken sub 4SC how did they do???
Here is the breakdown:
They received 60 PSA 10s.
They received 103 PSA 9s.
They received 24 others included two 5s.
Looking at the pop report there have been 8000 or so 1982 TT Ripkens submitted with 155 PSA 10s for a rate of just under 2% of those graded were 10s. Somehow 4SC managed to have ~32% of their submitted Ripkens receive 10s on this sub. Hard to imagine that 4SC managed to unearth an 82 TT find that resulted in over 1/3rd of the PSA 10s ever graded...
Admittedly I had some free time on my hands this morning but initially perusing the cert verification for this sub I could not quite believe the results.
Cheers,
Robb
0
Comments
CDsNuts, 1/9/15
<< <i>Here is the breakdown:
They received 60 PSA 10s.
They received 103 PSA 9s.
They received 24 others included two 5s.
Looking at the pop report there have been 8000 or so 1982 TT Ripkens submitted with 155 PSA 10s for a rate of just under 2% of those graded were 10s. Somehow 4SC managed to have ~32% of their submitted Ripkens receive 10s on this sub. Hard to imagine that 4SC managed to unearth an 82 TT find that resulted in over 1/3rd of the PSA 10s ever graded...
Cheers,
Robb >>
Morning,
In before the Poof................And remember Robb........Repeat after me! NO Submittor would EVER get any kind of preferential or break on thier Grades!!!, Never, Never, Never!!
YeeHah YeeHah
Neil
<< <i>High percentages, but admittedly, 4SC has more buying power than any of us. So, they could have gone through 2000-3000 Ripkens to pick out the cherries of the group. We really don't know. If it were you or I, if we had a decent looking Ripken and there was a reasonable special, we'd send it in just for the heck of it. That would skew the numbers a bit. >>
Exactly. I wonder how many raw cards will be put up by newenglandsportscards?
:edited to soften my comment
Always plenty of PSA-graded cards in my ebay store -- https://ebay.com/str/thelumbercompanysportscards
Total pop report currently stands at 10,203. Backing out the 187 in this submission gives an adjusted total population of 10,016.
The PSA 10 pop stands at 155. Backing out the 60 PSA 10's results in a PSA 10 population of only 95 prior to the submission.
The historical PSA 10 grading rate was 95/10,016 = 0.95%
This submission's PSA 10 grading rate was 60/187 = 32.1%
Someone smarter than me might want to calculate how many standard deviations beyond the mean that grading rate is.
This is known as “bad luck.”
Beware of the unopened factor.
For the person that purchased the 1979 PSA 10 Ozzie Smith for 20k, you made a terrible, terrible buy.
Wait until 4sc submits a bulk order of those babies.
For those of you that don't know -- and not to get too cerebral here -- but Ockham's razor is a principle that generally recommends that, from among competing hypotheses, selecting the one that makes the fewest new assumptions usually provides the correct one, and that the simplest explanation will be the most plausible until evidence is presented to prove it false (from dictionary.com)
Seems appropriate here.
Always plenty of PSA-graded cards in my ebay store -- https://ebay.com/str/thelumbercompanysportscards
4SC is one of the reasons I tend to collect older and older cards. Neither they nor Fritsch have endless supply of 50s Topps.
I've always wanted that card in a 10, but each time I see a true 10 (the PWCC one for example has a clear stain on the top center white border) I just think of how many have yet to be graded-- and then I buy a Rose RC or 56 Mantle or the like. Or even an early 70s star in high grade. There is just so much product yet to be graded when it comes to Ripken RCs and Ozzies that I have to believe supply will increase in years to come and then one can be copped for less than now. Of course there is some great older product yet to be graded, too, but it's gotta be significantly less.
"Live everyday, don't throw it away"
My guess is that they are making huge subs on those Ripkens and requesting only 9's or better...and all the raw 8's come back to be sold on NESC.
I agree 100% with Matty C...paying crazy prices for anything 1978 and beyond seems silly if you are worried about retaining value. There is much, much more to be graded. But hey...everyone has a passion about what they collect...so if they want to pay those prices..I certainly don't fault them.
So if they requested a minimum grade to be a 10, then I can see if they submitted "who knows how many" to get that many 10s in a row.
Others can correct me if I'm wrong.
<< <i>High percentages, but admittedly, 4SC has more buying power than any of us. So, they could have gone through 2000-3000 Ripkens to pick out the cherries of the group. We really don't know. If it were you or I, if we had a decent looking Ripken and there was a reasonable special, we'd send it in just for the heck of it. That would skew the numbers a bit. >>
+1
WTB: 2001 Leaf Rookies & Stars Longevity: Ryan Jensen #/25
Cheers,
Robb
I'm guessing that even the 5's would bring $6.
CDsNuts, 1/9/15
<< <i>What's the lowest grade that would pay for grading fees?
I'm guessing that even the 5's would bring $6. >>
i cant see a PSA 5 not selling for $9.99 BIN at a minimum. Hell, i'd hit the BIN at that price, and im sure im not alone
WTB: PSA 1 - PSA 3 Centered, High Eye Appeal 1950's Mantle
<< <i>Last two sales on ebay for a PSA 5: $71, $52 >>
That's pretty crazy. IMO
CDsNuts, 1/9/15
I've bought from them several times with no problems whatsoever
I think I'll do like Switzerland on this one.
<< <i>Interesting stats.
I think I'll do like Switzerland on this one. >>
The President of Switzerland in the months leading up to WWII and Germany recognizing their Nuetrality, when warned that Germany could Invade them with over 1,000,000 troops to the Swiss's standing military of 500,000 at that time, Said "I'll tell my men to Shoot twice!! !!!
YeeHah
Neil
They're great if you're the seller though.
WTB: 2001 Leaf Rookies & Stars Longevity: Ryan Jensen #/25
<< <i>For the long haul, modern "low pop" cards are fools' gold.
They're great if you're the seller though. >>
Exactly...unless its a serial numbered parallel that's relatively low...I don't see the point in paying much for anything modern.
<< <i>I am well aware of the ability to request a minimum grade. The sub included 23 cards graded at 8.5 or lower so is unlikely a min grade of 9 or higher was specified for the sub.
Cheers,
Robb >>
Don't worry-- all the guys here who've spent $1000s on 4SC cards will try to offer up another lukewarm explanation for this phenomenon shortly.
<< <i>For the long haul, modern "low pop" cards are fools' gold.
They're great if you're the seller though. >>
Afternoon,
Same thing they did for most of the main stream 1960's Non Sport stuff over the last 3-5 years, destroy the value with an overabundance of Overgraded cards. There are thousands of examples of cards that sold for $200-$300 each in Pop 1-3 in 2005-2008, by 2012 they had swamped the market with dozens if not hundreds of a lot of examples of a Card in Graded Hi Grade and now you con't give away the same cards for $9.99!
Neil
<< <i>Sorry to be the resident "dummy", but what is 4SC? >>
Its short for the company named 'four sharp corners'. They are a big seller on ebay.
They seem to be very controversial. Some think a lot of the cards they sell are overgraded. Some think they trim cards.
Ebay Store:
Probstein123
phone: 973 747 6304
email: rickprobstein1@gmail.com
Probstein123 is actively accepting CONSIGNMENTS !!
Sorry to be the resident "dummy", but what is 4SC?
To be exact, it's 4_sharp_corners on ebay
<< <i>
<< <i>I am well aware of the ability to request a minimum grade. The sub included 23 cards graded at 8.5 or lower so is unlikely a min grade of 9 or higher was specified for the sub.
Cheers,
Robb >>
Don't worry-- all the guys here who've spent $1000s on 4SC cards will try to offer up another lukewarm explanation for this phenomenon shortly. >>
No explanation, just trying to get a little piece of the pie while everyone is eating. 10 or 15 percent is better than nothing or a sharp stick in the eye. Plus I like giving 5 percent to Rick...
Buy high, sell even higher while you can. Do nothing, get nothing...
"Live everyday, don't throw it away"
<< <i>
<< <i>I am well aware of the ability to request a minimum grade. The sub included 23 cards graded at 8.5 or lower so is unlikely a min grade of 9 or higher was specified for the sub.
Cheers,
Robb >>
Don't worry-- all the guys here who've spent $1000s on 4SC cards will try to offer up another lukewarm explanation for this phenomenon shortly. >>
You're being kindof a dick.
cards i bought from them in the past were short or vastly overgraded, specifically in regards to centering and surface
<< <i> they could have gone through 2000-3000 Ripkens to pick out the cherries of the group. If it were you or I, if we had a decent looking Ripken and there was a reasonable special, we'd send it in just for the heck of it. That would skew the numbers a bit. >>
This exactly. I don't mean any offense to anyone, but 4SC actually views their cards with loupes and probably under high intensity lighting to determine the condition; whereas at least half these boards thinks they can grade a card based on a scanned image. And unlike BGS grading which will average down for a "qualifiers" like centering, PSA does not. As long as it fits within tolerance of a particular grade it can score that grade as long as all other criteria are met. The key is to know what the grading company is looking for; not what your personal opinion may be.
As I continued to buy cards from them my opinion evolved -- likely similar to many other board members who have a longer-term / larger sample size experience with them.
I also find it somewhat telling (and lately frustrating) that they do not accept returns.
Always plenty of PSA-graded cards in my ebay store -- https://ebay.com/str/thelumbercompanysportscards
Really? That's what you think happened here?
i like shopping at 4SC, where else can you get HOF/AllStar PSA 10's for less then $10?
if you are collecting cardboard for money making purposes, you are in the wrong hobby
WTB: PSA 1 - PSA 3 Centered, High Eye Appeal 1950's Mantle
<< <i>Pops go up, that's reality people.
if you are collecting cardboard for money making purposes, you are in the wrong hobby >>
That's really about the bottom line, here. Especially in relation to modern stuff. If you collect that, it's wholly because you like the cards and not, or shouldn't be, because you're hoping to recoup your money at some point in the future.
Apart from the 337th reiteration of the 4SC argument, there also seems to be an attitude around here that population increases are a bad thing in and of themselves. That may be the case if you've paid through the nose for something that suddenly doesn't look so scarce but for most people the expanded opportunity to own a highly desirable card is seen as a good thing.
Edit: Like what Jeff just wrote.
<< <i>
<< <i>Interesting stats.
I think I'll do like Switzerland on this one. >>
The President of Switzerland in the months leading up to WWII and Germany recognizing their Nuetrality, when warned that Germany could Invade them with over 1,000,000 troops to the Swiss's standing military of 500,000 at that time, Said "I'll tell my men to Shoot twice!! !!!
YeeHah
Neil
Now that's funny Neil!