2012 PM price forecast
derryb
Posts: 36,821 ✭✭✭✭✭
took a while and a lot of research but here's my PM forecast for 2012 and it is a bold one:
$2,000 gold no later than June 22 with a top of at least $2350 sometime later in the year
$60 silver no later than July 2 with a top of at least $75 sometime later in the year
These are my non black swan event predictions with prices seeing a much higher ceiling in the event of an unforeseen crisis. I have baked in what I currently see and will have to turn up the oven if I see further escalation of a declining dollar. Folks, the outside world is shedding their dependence on the US dollar.
$2,000 gold no later than June 22 with a top of at least $2350 sometime later in the year
$60 silver no later than July 2 with a top of at least $75 sometime later in the year
These are my non black swan event predictions with prices seeing a much higher ceiling in the event of an unforeseen crisis. I have baked in what I currently see and will have to turn up the oven if I see further escalation of a declining dollar. Folks, the outside world is shedding their dependence on the US dollar.
"Interest rates, the price of money, are the most important market. And, perversely, they’re the market that’s most manipulated by the Fed." - Doug Casey
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Comments
<< <i>book marked. Did you factor in the end of the world 12/21/2012? >>
already baked in, liquidate on 12/20
"Interest rates, the price of money, are the most important market. And, perversely, they’re the market that’s most manipulated by the Fed." - Doug Casey
Gold will hit $2000
Silver will NOT get past $50 this year, but will be in the mid 40's.
"“Those who sacrifice liberty for security/safety deserve neither.“(Benjamin Franklin)
"I only golf on days that end in 'Y'" (DE59)
2011 predictions
<< <i>Well....I hope the OP's predictions are better than last years
2011 predictions >>
Premature, in my opinion. I'll save others the trouble of finding them:
<< <i>GLD: 1783.47
SIL: 63.07
PLT: 2276.32
PAL: 1182.17
2011 will be much worse economically than 2010 and all PMs will climb >25% by year's end.
The European Union will fall apart after Spain defaults on it's debt.
The dollar, however, will strengthen against other currencies except the Yuan and Canadian dollar, but only because all other currencies end up in the toilet.
China, contrary to current concerns, will continue to be "where the profit is."
Econcomic war between the US and China will escalate with massive trade import/export restrictions from both sides.
The US will continue to mask the seriousness of its employment and debt problems. QE 3 will become reality.
Public debt and expensive public pension promises will cause state/local need for federal bailout on a massive scale. >>
Actually quite bold at the time (end of 2010).
Rising metal prices were greatly affected by a series of new PM attacks (margin requirement hikes, the new weapon).
I still expect the EU to see more than one member exit. The spotlight is not yet on Spain, Italy will follow Greece.
The dollar did strengthen but for 2012 it is toast.
China has not suffered the meltdown that others predicted.
Trade will suffer from protectionism, it is a standard result of economic crisis.
The seriousness of employment and debt problems continue to be hidden and there will be even greater effort to do so in this election year. FED easing continued under other guises.
State and local bailouts have not yet been provided, although there has been a move towards bankruptcy for some localities who just can't keep their financial promises.
Overall, I see 2012 as the year things that have either been hidden, ignored or dodged come to a head.
"Interest rates, the price of money, are the most important market. And, perversely, they’re the market that’s most manipulated by the Fed." - Doug Casey
Thanks.
I appreciate all the work/research, hard thought etc that went into this.
I also know it is nothing more than one man's opinion.
Seems no one man really knows but I think you are more correct than the talking heads on TV, in government and markets elsewhere.
Power on dude, I'm with ya!
Best
gold if it hits 2k, wont stay but for very brief period
silver , never stay above 50 bucks for more than a day or two.
Liberty: Parent of Science & Industry
Fred, Las Vegas, NV
I knew it would happen.
Worry is the interest you pay on a debt you may not owe.
"Paper money eventually returns to its intrinsic value---zero."----Voltaire
"Everything you say should be true, but not everything true should be said."----Voltaire
<< <i>I see a lot of WILD guessing and WISHFUL thinking here >>
<< <i>I see a lot of guessing and wishful thinking here. >>
Nothing that is not being backed up with personal investments.
Believing and wishing are not quite the same thing.
"Interest rates, the price of money, are the most important market. And, perversely, they’re the market that’s most manipulated by the Fed." - Doug Casey
So DON'T follow the old adage "sell in May and walk away"?
Derryb, I hope you are wrong for alot of people's sake, but it ain't lookin' purdy.
Too many positive BST transactions with too many members to list.
Worry is the interest you pay on a debt you may not owe.
"Paper money eventually returns to its intrinsic value---zero."----Voltaire
"Everything you say should be true, but not everything true should be said."----Voltaire
<< <i>So DON'T follow the old adage "sell in May and walk away"?
Derryb, I hope you are wrong for alot of people's sake, but it ain't lookin' purdy. >>
Never walk away from a long term bull trend. sell the tops, but buy the dips.
PMs' current nemisis is the US$. While europe's failures will strengthen the dollar, worldwide demand for dollars will continue to dwindle as it slowly becomes disengaged as the world trading currency. This is the primary reason for my extremely positive outlook on metals.
"Interest rates, the price of money, are the most important market. And, perversely, they’re the market that’s most manipulated by the Fed." - Doug Casey
I knew it would happen.
Goldrunner tosses in their agreement
and, divorce from the petrodollar continues:
"Heads of state from the nations of Brazil, Russia, India, China and South Africa signed an agreement in New Delhi, Thursday, making way for a credit facility as a means of extending credit between the five-nation block in their own currencies, thereby bypassing the U.S. dollar for international trade."
"Interest rates, the price of money, are the most important market. And, perversely, they’re the market that’s most manipulated by the Fed." - Doug Casey
I knew it would happen.
<< <i>$2,000 gold no later than June 22 with a top of at least $2350 sometime later in the year $60 silver no later than July 2 with a top of at least $75 sometime later in the year >>
Really? Only when Hell freezes over
In the first quarter of this year silver rose 16% in dollars and 12% in pounds and euros, 7% in Swiss francs and 20% in Japanese yen. Currency destruction continues and these percentages give an idea where it is occuring.
"Interest rates, the price of money, are the most important market. And, perversely, they’re the market that’s most manipulated by the Fed." - Doug Casey
<< <i>The fractal progressions and the reasons behind them are interesting. I guess that my main concern is that the government is destroying the economy and that there may be more to worry about than whether or not the government can meet its debt obligations from overspending. >>
buy more "insurance."
"Interest rates, the price of money, are the most important market. And, perversely, they’re the market that’s most manipulated by the Fed." - Doug Casey
7% of that was due to the convenient fluke of the low close exactly on Dec 30th.
I'll predict silver ends 2012 lower than it is right now.
Liberty: Parent of Science & Industry
edit: looking back on my previous comment from 2 months ago...
<< <i>2012 predictions: gold will oscillate between 1600 and 1850, silver between 28 and 38. platinum will regain the lead over gold in spot price. Oil will stay between 95 and 110 bbl. the dollar index between 74 and 86. The goal is price stability and business predictability, we'll see more of that this year. >>
so far, so good
Liberty: Parent of Science & Industry
Liberty: Parent of Science & Industry
<< <i> We have not seen it (euphoria) yet in Gold and Silver no matter what the pundits say. last year was just a warmup for the main event that is comming. >>
>>
Are you referring to another 40% drop in silver or 15% drop in gold
How can it be any other way? Personal observations tell me that there is a lot of blue sky and sunshine being pumped, exhilarition over moving from the recession. Auto sales up, hard to deny but left begging the quesiton..."Where is the money to buy these $20K personal transportation devices coming from?" and the follow up question, "Where is the money going?" None the less, car sales are up even if much of the money ends up in some other country like Canada or Japan. It's an international market place now. Still...where is the money to buy these cars coming from? I see an astounding number of paper tags out there on the highway and I wonder.
Employment seems to be improving except for where it isn't. Fed is hiring intelligence folk and enforcement types as fast as they can get them to sign their employment contracts but Arch. and Eng. are a wasteland of state registered professionals looking for a project, any project. A&E is the true tell of growth; if folks are engaged to draw plans and write specifications, then there is development and that means there is growth, financial optimism and money flowing downwards to the masses. The other tell is building permits, if permits are up then there is growth and expansion and in truth, this is the true tell of employment as opposed to the number of burger flippers and service industry types there out there. The myth of shovel ready infrastructure projects has been gently brushed into the dark dustbin of things nobody talks about anymore.
There are plenty of other topic areas but in regard to the OP but yeah, it's a sound game that we play. The BRICS are growing, with Brazil clearing the jungle for new growth. Everybody is watching Brazil, they are kicking bootie as the vernacular goes. But...see anything in the media about them? Do they care about the USD...well, not as much as they used to and in the future, probably not much at all. It's a new world a comin'. So, do they care about war and domination...nope. They aren't the shining star of the new age quite yet but they certainly aren't all dusty and rusty like they were 10 years ago...ones to watch for future trends methinks.
"Never walk away from a long term bull trend. sell the tops, but buy the dips." But start treating it as a profitable avocation and not a hobby, learn to do the txes and the paperwork, it's a sound game but it's not for play anymore. Maybe more sound that the equity dividend freeks that the gov is targeting for distinction. "Red Solo cup, let's have a Party"
<< <i>Yeah, for sure, silver is worth more than the current price, "no matter what the market says"
How true that is. Physical Silver, especially Neat looking pieces sell for 150+% of spot.
Wha... you don't believe investment vehicles can do the truly euphoric? Do you think going from $6.57 per item to $633.00 per item is a little euphoric in an 8 year period? thats what appl has done.
Its being repeated cyclicaly over and over again in varing investment vehicles, and I don't believe Silver and Gold have some sort of imunity to euphorias contagion.
<< <i>If I could think of a better place to put investment money than precious metals, I would do it. >>
What are your thoughts on "Hydraulic Fracking"
The more qualities observed in a coin, the more desirable that coin becomes!
My Jefferson Nickel Collection
So far, this has been the best advise: "sell the tops, but buy the dips" I for one, will take full advantage of the current rally, unlike last year when I must have had my head in the sand.
I'm a wee bit premature, as usual:
While europe's failures will strengthen the dollar, worldwide demand for dollars will continue to dwindle as it slowly becomes disengaged as the world trading currency. This is the primary reason for my extremely positive outlook on metals.
"Interest rates, the price of money, are the most important market. And, perversely, they’re the market that’s most manipulated by the Fed." - Doug Casey
I didn't see this question when it was asked, so I'll answer now.
If that's what they're now doing in Texas, at Eagle Ford and down near Corpus - I'd say that it's a success and that if I had a good way to secure a stake, I'd probably consider it.
I knew it would happen.
8 years later and a flock of swans. How we doing? Dang
, petrodollar.
Knowledge is the enemy of fear
Buried under that stack no doubt. shouldn't have added that last bar with the rounds without consulting an engineer.
Love me some silver!
"Interest rates, the price of money, are the most important market. And, perversely, they’re the market that’s most manipulated by the Fed." - Doug Casey
Silver gets to be heavy, and bulky. That's why they invented platinum, right Bronco?
I knew it would happen.