....My collection is going down the tubes....!!

Gemineye · January 17, 2012 12:43AM

..Is a large network on TV depressing the market.I've seen many of my long years of saving Proof and Mint sets and Moderns being exploited due to the selling a big bulk for peanuts.They just want to clear their so-called excess in inventory and dump these moderns at supressed prices.My original sets are selling below the cost that I originally purchased.
I see them selling some holdered coins at extremely high prices and bulk silver at higher prices too.Due to these sales they can cause regular modern issue prices to be worth barely face value.
How can I enjoy my collecting by seeing any profit or value just disappear....

OnlyGoldIsMoney · January 17, 2012 12:49AM

<< ..Is a large network on TV depressing the market.I've seen many of my long years of saving Proof and Mint sets and Moderns being exploited due to the selling a big bulk for peanuts.They just want to clear their so-called excess in inventory and dump these moderns at supressed prices.My original sets are selling below the cost that I originally purchased.
I see them selling some holdered coins at extremely high prices and bulk silver at higher prices too.Due to these sales they can cause regular modern issue prices to be worth barely face value.
How can I enjoy my collecting by seeing any profit or value just disappear....

>>

I suggest enjoying your collection without expecting a profit. Moderns are produced in huge quantities and large marketers will continue to effect value.

You may wish to consider another area of coin collecting. Classic coins are not available in the quantities that large marketers crave.

sonoranmonsoon · January 17, 2012 12:50AM

Supply in excess of demand is always a problem for moderns. The pops change often. I never really expect to see overall values increase on my modern coins, I simply enjoy them for the collecting sake only.

edit: Onlygold beat me to the post, but we seem to agree.

GoldClause · January 17, 2012 12:51AM

<< 
I suggest enjoying your collection without expecting a profit. >>

This.

ricko · January 17, 2012 12:53AM

If you are collecting with a view to profit, then you are basically interested in being a dealer. Coin collecting, for the history and beauty of the coin is different. Cheers, RickO

ModernCoin · January 17, 2012 12:55AM

Well you could always stop buying stuff directly from the mint and simply buy it cheaper via eBay or at shows. I haven't been in the hobby for too long, yet I've found that I can buy just about every mint product on the cheap in the secondary market. In the last year alone I've purchased nearly every silver proof set from the 90's through 2010, save for the '95 and '99 sets, at melt prices or often times less.

I do buy stuff from the mint, but I only buy what looks like it is going to be a 'sure thing' (ase sets, army/m.o.h. gold, etc.). I try to buy everything else through eBay or at shows...

WestySteve · January 17, 2012 12:57AM

There is nothing wrong with enjoying collecting *AND* wanting your investment to be a worthy one. It's good that you're finding out now instead of 30 years from now.

Look around for other kinds of coins that might better hold their value. I'll try and send you a PM tonight with some ideas.

Steve

Gemineye · January 17, 2012 1:01AM

Being a dealer or raking in huge profits was not my intent.Enjoying them while I collect and seeing something that would be worthwhile in later years...but it seems only to be worthless to continue on my original plan.If they are only face value coins after many years..what's the use...???

jayPem · January 17, 2012 1:10AM

I think you just nailed it....time to work out a new plan.

mbbiker · January 17, 2012 1:10AM

I have a few proof sets here as well that will continue to sit in a box and if values never go up then they just get passed down eventually. Even gold and silver isnt a sure thing as i'm taking a loss on it as I sell it off now.

edit for spelling mistake

WaterSport · January 17, 2012 2:18AM

Larry:

We have seen/ heard this issue a bunch of times on this forum. With as many post as you have here, and your access to do searches on this subject I am a bit surprised you just now figured this out. But now that you have, you need to decided what you do want to collect, and cut your losses how ever you decide.

WS

notwilight · January 17, 2012 2:27AM

I don't know the details of your situation but temporarily depressed prices as dealers reduce inventory is not at all uncommon. In 2008 I had a lot of 2008 PCGS MS70 FS gold buffalos. So did APMEX. We both sold them for $1200 to $1400 for months. They depressed the prices with their large inventory and I did too as my inventory was about the same as theirs and I needed cash flow. Now they are $2200 to $2600. --Jerry

BaseballAbs · January 17, 2012 2:35AM

Just hold on to them.

magikbilly · January 17, 2012 2:40AM

"If they are only face value coins after many years..what's the use...???"

Enjoying the coins? If you can't do that all comfy then I guess your motives are a bit crossed. Enjoy them!!

Eric

ambro51 · January 17, 2012 2:42AM

If I were you, I'd sit down with ALL your coins, a good magnifier , the PCGS price guide and pop reports and then...... One by one you look at, and subjectively and carefully , with an eye to the defects and negatives .... Pick out the finest twenty or so pieces. You may find they will have more value than the rest of the holdings. As business strike years go by and by, many old hoard rolls just getting dumped, the mint set that yields a spectacular toned MS 69 full step Jeff..... A mint set some would slap 5$ on.... Here's a five figure coin. So basically most of what you have....your thoughts are logical and common sense. Look at what you have coin by coin and see you feel better about things.

kiyote · January 17, 2012 2:58AM

I still enjoy looking at my PDSS state quarter album-- there's not a rare coin in the bunch. I was kicking myself for cracking open proof sets to make it but now proof sets are priced so low that I don't feel too bad. I'm way out my initial investment but it's a fun album to look through.

Enjoyment should come first, and while no one likes to lose money, it is a hobby.

RichieURich · January 17, 2012 2:59AM

The people who faithfully bought proof and mint sets for years are now selling them off. There isn't much demand for them so prices of the sets have fallen. There was a story I heard (here?) about a dealer who opened a store and in the first few months bought 500 proof sets from the public. Number he SOLD to the public? 4 sets. What does this say about the supply/demand relationship? Loads of supply, little to no demand. Many years the Mint made 3 million or so proof sets. The current market is not large enough to absorb 3 million sets of each year.

It is entirely possible that the TV shopping show saw an opportunity to buy these proof and mint sets at a very low price, so they decided to buy a bunch and sell them to the public. I doubt that a TV shopping show would have held proof sets from many years ago since their issuance.

57loaded · January 17, 2012 3:20AM

<< ..How can I enjoy my collecting by seeing any profit or value just disappear....

>>

collecting and profit should never go hand in hand

if you truly enjoy mint and proof sets then keep on doing it.

look for profit in numismatics some other way, but enjoy doing it.

sometimes all we hear (read) here are "scores" and making $$$$

i have had many lost opportunities and made a few too many mistakes with moderns.

thebeav · January 17, 2012 3:42AM

I would think that, at today's levels, this would be a buying opportunity for moderns.
As with anything, money is made at the extremes.......

Gemineye · January 17, 2012 3:48AM

Real good advice from some who undertand...it is a hobby and very ejoyable....Time to divide and conquer and get the most out of the whole.I think splitting up the pie and keeping all the "..birds of a feather flock together.." so to speak will sort out masses..

SBK · January 17, 2012 6:20AM

I understand the OP's frustration. I feel like the value of any 1968-present proof set is undervalued compared to the general cost of buying any US numismatic items. I also think proof sets, kept intact, are very fun to collect. It's pure speculation, but with the vast majority of these sets now being broken apart for the increasingly popular desire to use the coins as singles, proof sets in their original packaging may have some sort of revival one day.

BillJones · January 17, 2012 6:44AM

<< ..Is a large network on TV depressing the market.I've seen many of my long years of saving Proof and Mint sets and Moderns being exploited due to the selling a big bulk for peanuts.They just want to clear their so-called excess in inventory and dump these moderns at supressed prices.My original sets are selling below the cost that I originally purchased.
I see them selling some holdered coins at extremely high prices and bulk silver at higher prices too.Due to these sales they can cause regular modern issue prices to be worth barely face value.
How can I enjoy my collecting by seeing any profit or value just disappear....

>>

I've been trying to warn people about the situation with modern coins for years. There are large numbers of them, and if you pay high prices you are probably going to come to grief financially. Market markets "make" the market for modern coins more than in any other sigment of numismatics, and often it is the collectors who get hurt by this.

With any numismatic purchase you should buy it because you enjoy it as a collector. Any profits you make should be viewed as a bonus. Many times those who study coins intently as collectors come out with a profit as a by-product. Many of these profits come from long term investments where you have held coins for many years. For example I have older coins in my collection for which I paid two to four thousand dollars which are now worth $20 to $30 thousand. I've had these coins for a couple of dacades or more.

If you depend upon coins as an investment, you probably won't have any fun. Chances are you will become unsatisfied and sell at the wrong time.

cladking · January 17, 2012 6:58AM

<< The people who faithfully bought proof and mint sets for years are now selling them off. There isn't much demand for them so prices of the sets have fallen. There was a story I heard (here?) about a dealer who opened a store and in the first few months bought 500 proof sets from the public. Number he SOLD to the public? 4 sets. What does this say about the supply/demand relationship? Loads of supply, little to no demand. Many years the Mint made 3 million or so proof sets. The current market is not large enough to absorb 3 million sets of each year.

It is entirely possible that the TV shopping show saw an opportunity to buy these proof and mint sets at a very low price, so they decided to buy a bunch and sell them to the public. I doubt that a TV shopping show would have held proof sets from many years ago since their issuance. >>

Take a step back from the issue and see it from another perspective.

There is a massive oversupply of mint and proof sets right now but if you examine this more closely
you'll see that the so called oversupply isn't universal. A few of the old proof sets and most of the
older mint sets are hardly coming out of the woodwork and prices are not down.

The process you're seeing is a macroeconomic process that affects numismatics. First off dealers nev-
er did sell many of these sets to the public but I'd wager they're selling more now than ever before.
Typically these sets have had virtually zero demand other than whatever propels people to buy them
from the mint initially. Then they have people updating their runs or collections of these so prices have
always remained firm or increased the first few years after issue. It takes time for the sets to be re-
distributed to the collectors who actually desire them as a collectible.

But over time the supply will usually swamp the demand and then the price crashes and the sets are
ripped up by wholesalers. Meanwhile sets accumulate in dealer stock because they are buying them
all the time and selling them in dribs and drabs. So these sets get shipped off to the wholesalers to
be ripped up as well. This all occurs in a choreographed sort of way and the forces acting on the dancers
are not merely hobby supply and demand. The forces are caused by the economic conditions of the
owners and the collectors. These are not quite the same since most of the sets are owned by people
representative of the general population while the collectors tend to be more stable. When the economy
is weak sets owned by the general population flow into the shops. These sets tend to be much newer
and tend to cause the prices of newer sets to collapse. The '95 mint set has gone from$20 to $6 in the
last few years because the constituent parts of the '95 mint sets are only worth $6 and when there is
not enough demand for intact sets the price must come down to its basal value despite its "rarity". But
collectors are not selling large numbers of sets and tend to still be net buyers. Even if they sold most
have only one or two of each date which is insignificant supply except for the older less populous dates.

But supply isn't merly a question of what the general population is selling. Since these accumulate in
dealer stock they tend not to count as supply while they're accumulating. If the wholesalers aren't get-
ting sets then the sets don't exist as far as supply matters. This is because demand still doesn't exist
at the retail level but is mostly at the wholesale level. When they get swamped or have too little market
for the singles then they lower the price. At any given point in time in the last 45 years most of the sets
"in play" are in dealer inventory. When business is bad or they need the money for expansion or the
space occupied by the sets they are all shipped off. The faster the sets come in the more likely they get
shipped off.

The suviving mintages just keep falling. When they get low enough there just aren't any coming in from
the general public and they aren't getting shipped off to wholesalers. When the economy turns the corn-
er the spigot will close and demand will not only continue to increase but spike higher as the general pub-
lic becomes net buyers. Sure, the supply of something like '95 mint sets will still be high because these are
only starting to get destroyed by wholesalers but all those other sets are gone forever. Wholesalers will
still need supply and will have to bid much higher to get those dates which have been destroyed. The dy-
namics of the proof set markets are a little different because we're talking far higher demand and supply
as well as somewhat lower destruction rates.

These sets will be the basis of the modern market someday and that won't occur until it's generally recog-
nized that supply is not unlimited. It won't occur until the general public puts pressure on many of the dates
that are difficult. People need to remember that the proofs were never issued in rolls and the uncs only
survive in the mint sets in most cases. People didn't save rolls because the quality was horrid. If you want
a nice coin you have to look at mint sets and the opportunity to look at these sets will be coming to an end.

cladking · January 17, 2012 6:59AM

<< I would think that, at today's levels, this would be a buying opportunity for moderns.
As with anything, money is made at the extremes....... >>

Indeed.

cladking · January 17, 2012 7:02AM

<< 
I've been trying to warn people about the situation with modern coins for years. There are large numbers of them, and if you pay high prices you are probably going to come to grief financially. Market markets "make" the market for modern coins more than in any other sigment of numismatics, and often it is the collectors who get hurt by this. >>

There are only large numbers of the common coins. This is the nature of common coins
from 1907 indian cents to nice ch Unc '72-D quarters. There are not large numbers of
any of the old or the new scarcities or rarities.

<< If you depend upon coins as an investment, you probably won't have any fun. Chances are you will become unsatisfied and sell at the wrong time. >>

We've probablynever agreed more.

stevkc · January 17, 2012 7:16AM

<< Due to these sales they can cause regular modern issue prices to be worth barely face value.( >>

This isn't exactly a new situation is it? Seems like the vast majority of this type of stuff (especially non-silver) doesn't hold value.

pf70collector · January 17, 2012 7:59AM

The only run of proof sets is the clad and silver state quarters and the territorials from 1999-2009. I am done with buying proof sets from the mint. I will eventually sell these off too. In my early days of collecting I was tempted to buy the entire runs that Coin Vault often sells. Glad I didn't buy. My collecting focus has changed many times. From world gold to classics but moderns have always taken over as my main focus. I do have regrets of selling my Eliasberg World Gold though. I sold it when it doulbed a few years ago, but if I waited I could have quadrupled it, especially the Russian pieces.

WestySteve · January 17, 2012 12:42PM

Regardless of whether you are concerned about getting a return on your coins or not, we can all agree there is a certain mystique associated with things that are rare. ASSUMING THAT YOU ENJOY IT...if you buy stuff that you almost never see available for sale, and hopefully don't overpay for it, you can't go wrong. Coins that require an ebb and flow cycle dependent on their continual destruction probably aren't the best thing to go after.

That being said, the contrarian in me does love to buy things when there is a temporary glut of them. If it really is a temporary glut, finish the set!

Steve

DIMEMAN · January 17, 2012 12:48PM

That's the modern market and how it works.

If I wanted common proof sets, which I don't, I would never buy from the mint. Just wait and buy them later in the second hand market where they will always be cheaper.

Gemineye · January 17, 2012 9:37PM

<< That's the modern market and how it works.

If I wanted common proof sets, which I don't, I would never buy from the mint. Just wait and buy them later in the second hand market where they will always be cheaper.

>>

While I agree with how the market works ..my buying from the mint was to acquire first hand the best sets available.I figure when you buy from a dealer or in the second hand market you are not getting first choice..Time will tell if the current common items will be RARE...!!

BillJones · January 17, 2012 11:56PM

<< 

<< That's the modern market and how it works.

If I wanted common proof sets, which I don't, I would never buy from the mint. Just wait and buy them later in the second hand market where they will always be cheaper.

>>

While I agree with how the market works ..my buying from the mint was to acquire first hand the best sets available.I figure when you buy from a dealer or in the second hand market you are not getting first choice..Time will tell if the current common items will be RARE...!! >>

I stopped buying Proof sets directly from the mint several years ago because I was getting too many sets with spots and fingerprints. The presidential dollars are very prone to spotting, and it seems that they people who put coins in the holders seem to need use their bare thumbs to push the dime into place.

I have an arrangement with a local dealer where he lets me go through his recently purchased sets, and I assemble the sets for my collection putting together the three or four cases to make a nice set.

I’m not looking to have PR-70 DCam coins, but I do want high quality sets without spots and problems, at least at the start. Unfortunately in some years sets seem to get spots, even when they are properly stored. That’s aggravating, but it’s part of the territory.

CoinRaritiesOnline · January 18, 2012 12:55AM

If you depend upon coins as an investment, you probably won't have any fun. Chances are you will become unsatisfied and sell at the wrong time.
--Bill Jones

This is likely the wisest sentence I have ever read in this chat room.

mommam17 · January 18, 2012 1:56AM

Amen. Happened to me a long time ago and won't happen again.

nwcoast · January 18, 2012 2:23AM

That being said, the contrarian in me does love to buy things when there is a temporary glut of them. If it really is a temporary glut, finish the set!

Steve >>

Well put Steve!!!!
Might be a good time to pick up sets that could be cherry pick material too?
Providing that is... That one is in the very fortunate situation of having employment and not having to sell into this market to keep food on the table....

WestySteve · January 18, 2012 2:53AM

<< If you depend upon coins as an investment, you probably won't have any fun. Chances are you will become unsatisfied and sell at the wrong time.
--Bill Jones

This is likely the wisest sentence I have ever read in this chat room. >>

I don't "depend" on coins as investment (I have other investments). But I do care about the return on my coin investments. And I absolutely love coins and have fun with them as a hobby. I do sell, but usually only to buy more coins and collectibles.

BillyKingsley · January 18, 2012 3:01AM

If you going to let them go for face value, I'll trade you face for face coins I get in change or rejects from roll searching. I can guarentee you that they would be going to a collector who appreciates them for what they are, with absolutely no plan to ever sell them to anyone, ever. You may not be getting anything over what you paid, but at least they will bring somebody happyness. (I mean me, if that wasn't clear!)

jdimmick · January 18, 2012 10:36AM

I hate the crap, i dread and cringe everytime somebody comes thru the door to sell some. Market pure tee sucks, cant give em away. I price these well back of bid when figuring them up to buy, and dump them to the nearest quickest wholesaler i can find.

cladking · January 19, 2012 2:26AM

<< I hate the crap, i dread and cringe everytime somebody comes thru the door to sell some. Market pure tee sucks, cant give em away. I price these well back of bid when figuring them up to buy, and dump them to the nearest quickest wholesaler i can find. >>

This is the way most dealers feel even when prices are relatively strong. This market
approached a sort of equilibrium in the early-'70's and little has really changed except
the huge increase in the percentage of the mint sets sitting idle on dealer shelves wait-
ing to get shipped off. The absolute number of sets on the shelves hasn't increased
substantially and might actually be a little lower since there are fewer dealers than in
the early-'70's. But where these sets used to contain mostly early sets and only a tiny
percentage of the mintage of those sets now these idle sets tend to be mostly later dates
and the percentage of the surviving early sets sitting idle is quite large.

There are obvious parallels to world moderns that have been exploding in price. Common
Russian coins from the '60's and '70's can go for prices exceeding $1000 in typical Unc.
BU prices aren't even listed but in most cases wouldn't be a lot higher since most of the
survivors are gemmy except nearly half are spotted. This spotting is usually quite bad.
Even in lower grades these high mintage coins bring strong prices because they were
all worn out and then melted before anyone thought to save them. The real difference
is that collecting was discouraged in the Soviet Union so there was almost no market but
the situation here is only different in that there was initially a large supply and no market.

Now there is very little supply and still a tiny albeit growing market. The coins in circulation
haven't been melted but they are worn out more universally than even the Russian coins.

cladking · January 19, 2012 5:23AM

<< I understand the OP's frustration. I feel like the value of any 1968-present proof set is undervalued compared to the general cost of buying any US numismatic items. I also think proof sets, kept intact, are very fun to collect. It's pure speculation, but with the vast majority of these sets now being broken apart for the increasingly popular desire to use the coins as singles, proof sets in their original packaging may have some sort of revival one day. >>

Welcome aboard, SBK.

Somehow I missed your post.

A significant percentage of the early dates are gone now as proven by the frequency
with which the coins are seen in circulation over the last 40+ years. I have the sense
that the percentage of proof sets surviving is higher than mint sets but absolute num-
bers are impossible to know. One thing certain is that there is a solid demand for the
proofs that goes beyond the demand for uncs as can be seen inthe relative mintages.
Proof sets have a loyal following that unc clad never did. Where business strikes can
be collected in any grade the only relalistic way to collect the proofs is as singles or sets
since complete sets are quite impossible in circulation. Proofs don't last long in circulation
before someone grabs them out.

I have no doubt that eventually intact proof sets will be highly sought after. It will probably
be after the time that people come to realize that nice attractive Uncs tend to be scarce
to rare. Proof sets have several distinct advantages to mint sets and chief among them
is that almost all proof sets are attractive while 2/ 3rds of mint sets are not.

DBSTrader2 · January 20, 2012 8:35AM

I received from my grandparents, and then bought for myself 1 (almost all clad) proof set per year since I was born. My parents & then I continued the tradition for both my boys from the year they were each born. Along the way, I bought a few lots to allow for 1 each per son back to 1983, and just 1 for myself from '82 back to nearly my birthyear.

I finally made the decision to stop throwing good money after bad in buying these overpriced Mint products, figuring I can always go the eBay route if I ever want to pick it up again. But I seriously would have been better off all these years buying silver dollars or ASE's all this time....

In any event, I need just 3 sets to complete these collections: 1980, 1981, & 1991. Every once in a while, I'll track them on eBay, but they either get overpriced, the shipping each is too high to make it worthwhile, or any "sets" being sold with those 3 dates either go too high or I get outbid. If anyone was looking to get rid of those 3 years at a reasonable price, I'd be interested in buying them & finally being able to say "my work is done."

- - Dave

Cocoinut · January 20, 2012 10:04AM

I began buying proof and mint sets from the Mint in 1968. My usual annual purchase was 5 proof sets and 2 mint sets. I bumped up the mint set purchases if it seemed like there would be a possible "key" date. In 1970, there was a limit of 4 mint sets, due to the demand for the mint-set-only 1970-D half dollar. In 1973, the P and D Ike dollars were available only in mint sets., and in 1987, the P and D halves were available only in mint sets. Those all seemed like sure winners. Today, the 1970 mint set that sold for $2.50 from the Mint is now bid at $8.50; 1973 mint sets that sold for $6.00 new are now $7.25, and the 1987 that sold for $7.00 from the Mint is now at just $4.00. In 1979, I kept 2 proof sets from each year, and sold the extras. Prices then were lofty compared to today.

Oh, and just to show how ordering from the Mint has changed: I wrote my check for 1971 proof sets on October 29, 1970 (November 1 was the first date to order proof sets for the following year). The sets were received on June 2, 1971, which was typical back then! How's that for fast service?

Jim

....My collection is going down the tubes....!!

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