The math used above is somwhat flawed.....Yes the odds of finding 1 Ozzie on top rack in a case would 216/750 and if 750 isn't the exact denominator it is close and thus breaking it down for every roughly 3.5 rack cases you buy you would expect to find 1 Ozzie on top rack pack. The trouble is that the 216 portion assumes an Ozzie could occur in any of the 3 panels in an equal percentage. Most agree that this is not the case though and to actually find the probability you would need to use 72 as the numerator and X as the demoninator where X is the number of cards that are in the A and B series Topps used to package their cards. This could end up being close to 28% again, I just don't know how many cards are in series A and B.
Now who wants to tackle the odds of finding a 1978 Molitor and Murray rack pack?
<< <i>The math used above is somwhat flawed.....Yes the odds of finding 1 Ozzie on top rack in a case would 216/750 and if 750 isn't the exact denominator it is close and thus breaking it down for every roughly 3.5 rack cases you buy you would expect to find 1 Ozzie on top rack pack. The trouble is that the 216 portion assumes an Ozzie could occur in any of the 3 panels in an equal percentage. Most agree that this is not the case though and to actually find the probability you would need to use 72 as the numerator and X as the demoninator where X is the number of cards that are in the A and B series Topps used to package their cards. This could end up being close to 28% again, I just don't know how many cards are in series A and B.
Now who wants to tackle the odds of finding a 1978 Molitor and Murray rack pack? >>
If we were discussing 1975 Topps racks I could consider positional issues, but I don't know enough about 1979 Topps racks to take it further. I'll bet Paul could shed some light on the positional considerations.
<< <i>I'm pretty embarrassed that I forgot about the panel position. I think that would decrease the probability by a third then.
I came up with 1 Oz per 750 cards based on my vending case rip. 24 boxes, 18 Ozs, 500 cards per box. 1 Oz every 1.5 boxes, or 750 cards, on AVG.
So let's say 4/(3*24*3) chance, about of pulling an Oz from a case. Then multiply that by the probability of it appearing in the proper panel on top. >>
Ow, even as an engineer this makes my head hurt. I would also think as previously said shouldn't it be based on the number of Ozzies on the A and B sheets with one of those on the top of each rack. Of course that assumes there is an equal chance of each of thpse cards being on top of the rack. Maybe the number of cards in the rack cell makes some cards more lilkely to come up on top.
Jim
Looking for 66 and 69 OPC baseball 60's OPC packs 72 BB, 60's FB, 71FB, 73FB, 74FB, 75FB, 76FB, 78FB Rack Packs 72 and earlier BB cello
<< <i>There should be a rule that Macros can't post anymore pics unless they are for sale or a group break! lol
Great stuff! >>
Well, I could stop posting the unopened stuff (and there are alot of people here that have much more amazing stuff than I do and I love seeing it) but I do have a couple of pages of 78 Ryans if you want to see if any are worth grading. I assume the problem there hasn't been one before is centering issues as most of mine are off center.
Jim >>
Please never stop posting pics of your collection. And anytime you want to sell some stuff through these boards you have my blessing.
There is 132 cards in series A&B, but i think there is no proper equation, it depended and how the assembly line workers handled packing, i have opened a 3 box case and got 4 Ozzies on top and i also opened over 20 cases in one week and never got one of course all this was years ago i also remember one time pulling 6 Gwynns on top from one 1983 case. Jose
"My father would womanize, he would drink. He would make outrageous claims like he invented the question mark. Sometimes he would accuse chestnuts of being lazy. The sort of general malaise that only the genius possess and the insane lament. Our childhood was typical. Summers in Rangoon, luge lessons. In the spring we'd make meat helmets. When we were insolent we were placed in a burlap bag and beaten with reeds - pretty standard really."
Since I am not 100% familiar with the exact distribution of Ozzie cards, I'm going to assume they come once every 750 based on what everybody is saying about DPs and the like. That makes the odds of getting an Ozzie on top of a rack, assuming 216 top cards in a case:
1 - ((749/750) ^ 216)
The odds of getting one are 1 minus the odds of NOT getting one. The odds of the top card in any of the 216 spots being an Ozzie are 1/750. The odds of NOT getting one are 749/750. To not get one in an entire case would mean the 749/750 coming up true 216 times in a row. Thus, raise 749/750 to the 216th power and subtract that from 1.
749/750 ^ 216 = .7496.
Thus, the odds of getting one are .2504 or 25.04%.
<< <i>There should be a rule that Macros can't post anymore pics unless they are for sale or a group break! lol
Great stuff! >>
Well, I could stop posting the unopened stuff (and there are alot of people here that have much more amazing stuff than I do and I love seeing it) but I do have a couple of pages of 78 Ryans if you want to see if any are worth grading. I assume the problem there hasn't been one before is centering issues as most of mine are off center.
Jim >>
Let's see the 1978 Ryans! >>
Here are some of the Ryans. The first sheet are obviously off-center. I don't know if any of the others are worth subbing.
And a little off subject: While looking for those I saw my 76 schmidts. The majority of those have a half missing K. Is this a common printing prblem for the 76 Schmidts?
Jim
Looking for 66 and 69 OPC baseball 60's OPC packs 72 BB, 60's FB, 71FB, 73FB, 74FB, 75FB, 76FB, 78FB Rack Packs 72 and earlier BB cello
<< <i>And a little off subject: While looking for those I saw my 76 schmidts. The majority of those have a half missing K. Is this a common printing prblem for the 76 Schmidts?
Jim >>
No, but it's typical to find the same flaw on all cards if they came from the same vending run or wax case
All this talk about odds and 79 racks with Ozzie on top got me digging into one of my 79 rack boxes to extract this beauty..
Collecting 1970s Topps baseball wax, rack and cello packs, as well as PCGS graded Half Cents, Large Cents, Two Cent pieces and Three Cent Silver pieces.
Crazy price, a $50 card and $20,000 for the plastic holder.
My congrats to the consignor and auction house.
With Ozzie PSA 9's selling for $233 to $525 range over the past two years, and averaging roughly $400 a card, wouldn't you be better off buying every 9 that appears for sale and just have them all reviewed for a bump? You could've bought around 50 PSA 9's of the card for the price of the 10.
One bump and the other 9's could be sold off to lower your overall cost. You might get into that 10 for zero with some luck.
A PSA 10 is a PSA 9 on a different day and vice versa.
This is a funny hobby.
Ozzie could have used the $20k himself for his bankruptcy back in the early 80's.
Hobby DeVito: You mean, let me understand this cause, ya know maybe it’s me, I’m a little f****d up maybe, but I’m funny how, I mean funny like I’m a clown, I amuse you? I make you laugh, I’m here to f****n’ amuse you? What do you mean funny, funny how? How am I funny?
cardbender Hill: Just, you know, your story was funny…
Hobby: No, no, I don’t know, you said it. How do I know? You said I’m funny. How the f**k am I funny, what the f**k is so funny about me? Tell me, tell me what’s funny!
<< <i>The only person who would spend that much on this card is that major leaguer who collects all Psa 10 rookies and has a buyer buy all his cards...
Dimitri young >>
We caught a glimpse of Dmitri's PSA 10 rookie card collection on last year's Baseball Network Card Special. I am pretty sure I saw a PSA 10 1979 Topps Ozzie Smith in there.
Comments
Now who wants to tackle the odds of finding a 1978 Molitor and Murray rack pack?
Join the Rookie stars on top PSA registry today:
1980-1989 Cello Packs - Rookies
<< <i>The math used above is somwhat flawed.....Yes the odds of finding 1 Ozzie on top rack in a case would 216/750 and if 750 isn't the exact denominator it is close and thus breaking it down for every roughly 3.5 rack cases you buy you would expect to find 1 Ozzie on top rack pack. The trouble is that the 216 portion assumes an Ozzie could occur in any of the 3 panels in an equal percentage. Most agree that this is not the case though and to actually find the probability you would need to use 72 as the numerator and X as the demoninator where X is the number of cards that are in the A and B series Topps used to package their cards. This could end up being close to 28% again, I just don't know how many cards are in series A and B.
Now who wants to tackle the odds of finding a 1978 Molitor and Murray rack pack? >>
If we were discussing 1975 Topps racks I could consider positional issues, but I don't know enough about 1979 Topps racks to take it further.
I'll bet Paul could shed some light on the positional considerations.
Dave
<< <i>I'm pretty embarrassed that I forgot about the panel position. I think that would decrease the probability by a third then.
I came up with 1 Oz per 750 cards based on my vending case rip. 24 boxes, 18 Ozs, 500 cards per box. 1 Oz every 1.5 boxes, or 750 cards, on AVG.
So let's say 4/(3*24*3) chance, about of pulling an Oz from a case. Then multiply that by the probability of it appearing in the proper panel on top. >>
Ow, even as an engineer this makes my head hurt. I would also think as previously said shouldn't it be based on the number of Ozzies on the A and B sheets with one of those on the top of each rack. Of course that assumes there is an equal chance of each of thpse cards being on top of the rack. Maybe the number of cards in the rack cell makes some cards more lilkely to come up on top.
Jim
60's OPC packs
72 BB, 60's FB, 71FB, 73FB, 74FB, 75FB, 76FB, 78FB Rack Packs
72 and earlier BB cello
<< <i>
<< <i>There should be a rule that Macros can't post anymore pics unless they are for sale or a group break! lol
Great stuff! >>
Well, I could stop posting the unopened stuff (and there are alot of people here that have much more amazing stuff than I do and I love seeing it) but I do have a couple of pages of 78 Ryans if you want to see if any are worth grading. I assume the problem there hasn't been one before is centering issues as most of mine are off center.
Jim >>
Please never stop posting pics of your collection. And anytime you want to sell some stuff through these boards you have my blessing.
You always have great stuff Jim.
"Live everyday, don't throw it away"
i have opened a 3 box case and got 4 Ozzies on top and i also opened over 20 cases in one week and never got one of course all this was years ago
i also remember one time pulling 6 Gwynns on top from one 1983 case.
Jose
1 - ((749/750) ^ 216)
The odds of getting one are 1 minus the odds of NOT getting one. The odds of the top card in any of the 216 spots being an Ozzie are 1/750. The odds of NOT getting one are 749/750. To not get one in an entire case would mean the 749/750 coming up true 216 times in a row. Thus, raise 749/750 to the 216th power and subtract that from 1.
749/750 ^ 216 = .7496.
Thus, the odds of getting one are .2504 or 25.04%.
Tabe
<< <i>
<< <i>
<< <i>There should be a rule that Macros can't post anymore pics unless they are for sale or a group break! lol
Great stuff! >>
Well, I could stop posting the unopened stuff (and there are alot of people here that have much more amazing stuff than I do and I love seeing it) but I do have a couple of pages of 78 Ryans if you want to see if any are worth grading. I assume the problem there hasn't been one before is centering issues as most of mine are off center.
Jim >>
Let's see the 1978 Ryans! >>
Here are some of the Ryans. The first sheet are obviously off-center. I don't know if any of the others are worth subbing.
And a little off subject: While looking for those I saw my 76 schmidts. The majority of those have a half missing K. Is this a common printing prblem for the 76 Schmidts?
Jim
60's OPC packs
72 BB, 60's FB, 71FB, 73FB, 74FB, 75FB, 76FB, 78FB Rack Packs
72 and earlier BB cello
<< <i>And a little off subject: While looking for those I saw my 76 schmidts. The majority of those have a half missing K. Is this a common printing prblem for the 76 Schmidts?
Jim >>
No, but it's typical to find the same flaw on all cards if they came from the same vending run or wax case
I find the usual problem with the 1976 Schmidt is a L/R tilt. Would love to find a nice PSA 9 priced within the realm of VCP
for my set
Dave
Collecting 1970s Topps baseball wax, rack and cello packs, as well as PCGS graded Half Cents, Large Cents, Two Cent pieces and Three Cent Silver pieces.
My congrats to the consignor and auction house.
With Ozzie PSA 9's selling for $233 to $525 range over the past two years,
and averaging roughly $400 a card, wouldn't you be better off buying every 9 that
appears for sale and just have them all reviewed for a bump? You could've bought
around 50 PSA 9's of the card for the price of the 10.
One bump and the other 9's could be sold off to lower your overall cost.
You might get into that 10 for zero with some luck.
A PSA 10 is a PSA 9 on a different day and vice versa.
This is a funny hobby.
Ozzie could have used the $20k himself for his bankruptcy back in
the early 80's.
<< <i>This is a funny hobby. >>
Hobby DeVito: You mean, let me understand this cause, ya know maybe it’s me, I’m a little f****d up maybe, but I’m funny how, I mean funny like I’m a clown, I amuse you? I make you laugh, I’m here to f****n’ amuse you? What do you mean funny, funny how? How am I funny?
cardbender Hill: Just, you know, your story was funny…
Hobby: No, no, I don’t know, you said it. How do I know? You said I’m funny. How the f**k am I funny, what the f**k is so funny about me? Tell me, tell me what’s funny!
Join the Rookie stars on top PSA registry today:
1980-1989 Cello Packs - Rookies
<< <i>Ozzie Smith never filed for bankruptcy. >>
My mistake, that was Tony Gwynn who filed for bankruptcy.
I knew it was a Padres player from the early 80's.
Itzagoner, good one. Great scene from a classic movie.
Dimitri young
<< <i>The only person who would spend that much on this card is that major leaguer who collects all Psa 10 rookies and has a buyer buy all his cards...
Dimitri young >>
We caught a glimpse of Dmitri's PSA 10 rookie card collection on last year's Baseball Network Card Special. I am pretty sure I saw a PSA 10 1979 Topps Ozzie Smith in there.