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Observation on the 2011 Army and Medal of Honor gold coins...
kiyote
Posts: 5,568 ✭✭✭✭✭
I know a lot of us (including myself) focused only on the Uncs because they tend to have lower mintages and do better in the aftermarket but the proofs were also way down-- so far down, in fact, that I noticed the following:
2011 ARMY GOLD COMMEMORATIVE COINS
$5 Gold Proof 17,173
$5 Gold Unc 8,062
Total: 25,205
2011 MEDAL OF HONOR GOLD COMMEMORATIVE COINS
$5 Gold Proof 18,012
$5 Gold Unc 8,251
Total: 26,263
The numbers are not final; likely there will be a couple dozen returns on each option. Now compare this to the current king, Jackie Robinson:
1997 JACKIE ROBINSON GOLD COMMEMORATIVE COINS
Jackie Robinson Proof 24,062
Jackie Robinson Unc 5,174
Total: 29,236
While Jackie might still have the lowest option mintage with the Unc, overall, the Army coin is now the lowest "type" modern commem gold $5 with 4,031 less minted than the Jackie series, the MOH gold has 2,973 less minted. IMHO, The future looks pretty bright for the MOH and Army gold. The Army proof $5 coin is also now the new king of $5 gold proofs, unseating the proof 1996 Smithsonian gold with a previous low of 21,840.
2011 ARMY GOLD COMMEMORATIVE COINS
$5 Gold Proof 17,173
$5 Gold Unc 8,062
Total: 25,205
2011 MEDAL OF HONOR GOLD COMMEMORATIVE COINS
$5 Gold Proof 18,012
$5 Gold Unc 8,251
Total: 26,263
The numbers are not final; likely there will be a couple dozen returns on each option. Now compare this to the current king, Jackie Robinson:
1997 JACKIE ROBINSON GOLD COMMEMORATIVE COINS
Jackie Robinson Proof 24,062
Jackie Robinson Unc 5,174
Total: 29,236
While Jackie might still have the lowest option mintage with the Unc, overall, the Army coin is now the lowest "type" modern commem gold $5 with 4,031 less minted than the Jackie series, the MOH gold has 2,973 less minted. IMHO, The future looks pretty bright for the MOH and Army gold. The Army proof $5 coin is also now the new king of $5 gold proofs, unseating the proof 1996 Smithsonian gold with a previous low of 21,840.
"I'll split the atom! I am the fifth dimension! I am the eighth wonder of the world!" -Gef the talking mongoose.
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Comments
<< <i>I just might try to round up an example...
Not gonna be cheap or easy. Good luck.
<< <i>
<< <i>I just might try to round up an example...
Not gonna be cheap or easy. Good luck. >>
I've been watching prices creep up on ebay, glad I got my hoard from the source. Gambled early on the MOH but was able to get a last minute order in for the Army before they went dark.
Keep an open mind, or get financially repressed -Zoltan Pozsar
I don't know if that matters to anyone else, but I think it's dang cool.
<< <i>But... What about the half dollars! >>
I think people are sick of hearing me plug the half dollars, but here ya go...
(Actually the halfs are a little more complicated; the previous lowest proof commem half is the 2001 P Capital Visitor center with 77,962 but 1996 Swimming has the lowest Uncs..)
2011 Army Half Dollar Coins
.50 cent clad half Proof 68,349
.50 cent clad half Unc 39,461
Total: 107,810
2001 Capital Visitor Center Half Dollar Coins
.50 cent clad half Proof 77,962
.50 cent clad half Unc 99,157
Total: 177,119
1996 Swimming Half dollar Coins
.50 cent clad half proof 114,315
.50 cent clad half Unc 49,533
Total: 163,848
This may be a good time to plug Eric Jordan's excellent book, "Modern Commemorative Coins"-- while the data has been with us for years, he's arranged it in such a way looking up and studying modern commems is much more interesting than just a Redbook. It was Eric's book that convinced me that flipping my 25th Anniversary SAE sets into Army clad half dollars was a good idea; something I didn't even trust myself on at the time.
The following for the clad half dollars is so small I don't foresee huge price gains on these.
Wondercoin
The gold coins suffered from high prices and periods of interrupted sales while they came up with a new pricing grid.
But.............IMO that was not the real story.
I think we need to also look at the record low First Spouse mintages and even the 30 year record low sales of various US Mint proof sets.
When all viewed together it suggests we may be seeing a more serious situation developing.........a situation of generally lower interest in collecting current US Mint offerings.
While the last 5 year rise in silver, gold and platinum prices has been great for those holding bullion based coins it has IMO greatly reduced the ranks of collectors wanting to truely collect for the enjoyment of collecting independent of profit.
We have all become fixated on the bullion prices, mintages and potential to flip a product for quick gain.
I sense there are fewer and fewer collectors and more and more speculators/flippers.
Just consider the 25th Anniversary ASE sets..................
I bet 80-90% of those 5 frantic hours of sales went to speculators and not to individual collectors.
A lot of low mintage products were released in 2011...........now we just have to see what future demand there is for these products.
In the end Demand trumps all.............mintages and base metal prices are all measureable..............Demand is the Wild Card.
Link to PCGS MS69 sale
The keys of any series will always have some upward pressure. It may be some time before we see a lower 50 cent commemorative, proof or unc.
<< <i>A PCGS MS69 Army half just went for $125! Not a bad spike; I literally just bought one two weeks ago for $39 and thought that was a tad high.
Link to PCGS MS69 sale >>
The keys of any series will always have some upward pressure. It may be some time before we see a lower 50 cent commemorative, proof or unc. >>
<< <i>Strong delta between actual sales (most $540 - 580) and available BIN prices ($785 - 810) for the MOH UNCs. >>
A raw MS m.o.h. coin just sold for $700 at auction (not a BIN). Looks like the gap between selling price and asking price may be closing. I wish I would have purchased more, but I'm thrilled to have more than one of these at mint level pricing so I'm not complaining
<< <i>
<< <i>Strong delta between actual sales (most $540 - 580) and available BIN prices ($785 - 810) for the MOH UNCs. >>
A raw MS m.o.h. coin just sold for $700 at auction (not a BIN). Looks like the gap between selling price and asking price may be closing. I wish I would have purchased more, but I'm thrilled to have more than one of these at mint level pricing so I'm not complaining
Yup and another one sold for $586 the day before. Does that mean an up tick trend?
Contributing factors are a lack of demand due to overall economic weakness, and a shift in demand to more bullion-related material due to inflation fears.
My Adolph A. Weinman signature
A difference between my comment and 2fewfunds' comment is my "DEMAND" was in caps! Good post 2few!
A Civil War $5 MS Gold in PCGS-MS70 just sold for $525 "plus the juice" this past week at auction. The mintage of that coin is nearly 2,000 LOWER than the Torch Runner MS gold, the CW MS70 is a darn tough coin to slab in PCGS-MS70 grade, and that sale price is hundreds of dollars less than what the Torch Runner sells for even in raw form (let alone MS70)! Why you ask.... DEMAND!! There is simply irtually none for the CW coin after 16+ years... hence, the seller must accept about 30% over melt for his PCGS-MS70 example 16+ years after issue.
Wondercoin
edited to add ... only about 1 out of every 9 of the CW MS Gold coins have graded MS70 at PCGS with PCGS seeing close to 10% of the entire mintage thus far! This further demonstrates the absurdity of an MS70 example fetching about 30% over melt 16 years later ... but that is what happens when there is virtually no DEMAND. Just look at 06w burnished plats!
I really can't figure out why the MS 1995-96 Olympic gold coins are priced so high. I don't see any strong collector demand for them, and they're not being heavily promoted. Their 1996 silver dollar counterparts are dirt cheap, considering their mintage of about 15,000 each. I would guess that at least a few dealers or collectors have been buying MS Olympic gold in quantity, but for what purpose?
My Adolph A. Weinman signature
<< <i>IMO the low mintages of these Army and MOH coins could be viewed in a number of ways.
The gold coins suffered from high prices and periods of interrupted sales while they came up with a new pricing grid.
But.............IMO that was not the real story.
I think we need to also look at the record low First Spouse mintages and even the 30 year record low sales of various US Mint proof sets.
When all viewed together it suggests we may be seeing a more serious situation developing.........a situation of generally lower interest in collecting current US Mint offerings.
While the last 5 year rise in silver, gold and platinum prices has been great for those holding bullion based coins it has IMO greatly reduced the ranks of collectors wanting to truely collect for the enjoyment of collecting independent of profit.
We have all become fixated on the bullion prices, mintages and potential to flip a product for quick gain.
I sense there are fewer and fewer collectors and more and more speculators/flippers.
Just consider the 25th Anniversary ASE sets..................
I bet 80-90% of those 5 frantic hours of sales went to speculators and not to individual collectors.
A lot of low mintage products were released in 2011...........now we just have to see what future demand there is for these products.
In the end Demand trumps all.............mintages and base metal prices are all measureable..............Demand is the Wild Card. >>
I feel that the continued downturn in the economy has led to a decline in the number of collectors that couple with the increase in the price of precious metals has all contributed to a lessening of purchasing from the mint. Like you say demand is the wild card and imo driving that is a decline in the disposable wealth.
IMHO I think that we will continue to see record low mintages in both the First Spouse coins as well as the commeratives that will be coming out this year. Given the rise in the price of gold and silver last year the sooner we purchase these coins next year the cheaper it will cost us. However, without any increase in demand we may not see increase prices.
How the market purchases the latest Infantry and Star Spangled Banner coins will determine if you are correct that there is a downturn in the number of collectors.
<< <i>Just saw this sell pretty fast today. The seller immediately put another one up for sale after that one sold. Let the frenzy begin! 2011 $5 army >>
This is crazy hype. But I like it. Before these coins went off sale at the mint I picked up one each of the uncirculated MOH & Army. I also picked up 2 of the uncirculated and proof Halves. Both of which I'm happy about.
One of my contacts on another forum got me to purchase a book on modern commerative coins and I was always into buying proof coins but this time I've started buying uncirculated coins. If this value holds up over time, I would plan to continue this course.
Until I read this book I thought the upvalue of coins would be in proof coins. I bought these coins as an experiment to see for myself if the uncirculated coins had any upvalue.
Has anybody heard of what the value of the MOH & Army proof coins is?
These are "First Strike" POPS in 70 grades.
Army Proof 43
Army Unc 55
MOH Proof 29
MOH Unc 59
Whoever has these FS 70's should be very happy.
Well, just Love coins, period.
<< <i>Here is another tidbit making "the Jackie" even scarcer in some sense: issue price was $180. Can you imagine MOH mintage at that price? I think that adds to scarcity factor of the former. >>
Less than 2,000 Jackie Robinson uncs. were sold at that (pre-issue) price. The majority were bought as part of the 4-coin proof and unc. gold and silver sets. Uncirculated coins were not available in the other three gold options (2-piece gold and silver proof set, individual proof coin, and the popular "legacy" coin and card set), which partly explains why the uncircs were ignored during the several months that they were available directly from the Mint.
An additional 7,000 uncs. reportedly remained unsold and were melted after the ordering period expired.
My Adolph A. Weinman signature
Well, just Love coins, period.
<< <i>Has anybody heard of what the value of the MOH & Army proof coins is? >>
Just searched closed auctions on eBay nam. Congrats on buying the MS coins. My non-stop cheerleading for these over on GIM2 definitely made a few people money
<< <i>Bought my unc for 170 from Paul Sims of all people that year but the fact that it was available at that 180 price underscores how much relatively scarcer it is than would-be pretenders; said another way is how many would sell even with it's ugly design if sold at that price in 2011/12? >>
Gold was between $340 and $360 all year in 1997 and wasn't doin much of anything. The Army and MOH coins were priced even closer to bullion than the Jackie was. I'd buy $5 coin coin's with a baboon's butt on it all day long today if I could get them for $180.
They were pulled for repricing day after my order went in...........
<< <i>
<< <i>Bought my unc for 170 from Paul Sims of all people that year but the fact that it was available at that 180 price underscores how much relatively scarcer it is than would-be pretenders; said another way is how many would sell even with it's ugly design if sold at that price in 2011/12? >>
Gold was between $340 and $360 all year in 1997 and wasn't doin much of anything. The Army and MOH coins were priced even closer to bullion than the Jackie was. I'd buy $5 coin coin's with a baboon's butt on it all day long today if I could get them for $180.
If the mint was selling the Jackie today, it would be at the same price as the MOH. If that was so then if the MOH was sold in 1997 then the price would also be the same. So imo to argue that the Jackie is rarer because of the price was lower is a fallacy. Both the Army and MOH are basically rarer than the Jackie because of both the price of gold and the bad economic times that we are having today. IMO the bad economics truely have caused the low mintage sales.
<< <i>
<< <i>
<< <i>Strong delta between actual sales (most $540 - 580) and available BIN prices ($785 - 810) for the MOH UNCs. >>
A raw MS m.o.h. coin just sold for $700 at auction (not a BIN). >>
Since I'm new I have to ask what may be a foolish question. What is the meaning of the term BIN? Thanks.................
<< <i>IMO the bad economics truely have caused the low mintage sales. >>
That's part of it, but collector dilution is the biggest reason why sales are down IMO. We don't always get a $5 gold commen every year, but to have two offered at the same time along with spouse coins and other gold products definitely affects the numbers. Next year there are two commens slated, but sadly one one will have a $5 gold coin. I bet sales are much stronger on the piece in spite of the awful reverse simply due to the fact it's the only $5 gold commemorative.
BIN = Buy It Now (an auction for a set price on eBay where you click a button and the item is then yours)
<< <i>
<< <i>IMO the bad economics truely have caused the low mintage sales. >>
That's part of it, but collector dilution is the biggest reason why sales are down IMO. We don't always get a $5 gold commen every year, but to have two offered at the same time along with spouse coins and other gold products definitely affects the numbers. Next year there are two commens slated, but sadly one one will have a $5 gold coin. I bet sales are much stronger on the piece in spite of the awful reverse simply due to the fact it's the only $5 gold commemorative. >>
I doubt they will be that much stronger. The bald ealges did sell about twice as many in '08 as either the Army or MOH, but they only were priced at about $300. This one will probably ekk totals over these two, but not by much. The reverse does look like crap.
<< <i>Where do the Army half dollars appear in the PCGS population reports? >>
I go to Coinfacts to get the #s. Dunno if I can post premium content, so I won't, but I will say that if you submitted 10 coins, you likely got 1 MS67, 4 68s, and 5 69s. No MS70s yet.
my point. JR was available at very reasonable prices in a market not yet diluted by so many issues at a time of stronger economics, yet still had a low mintage which makes it all the more remarkable. I did not say it was more rare because of it but was implying that both demand and supply were affected differently than current or recent Mint offerings such as the MOH or Anniv. Sets.
Well, just Love coins, period.
I wasnt going to buy the army or MOH gold coins but the forum convinced me to get a few.Now I will be looking to start an affordable set of $5 gold commemoratives.