Does record low sales for 2010 proof sets bode poorly for numismatic field?

2manycoins2fewfunds

I see that sales for the basic 2010 proof set ends this week at recent record low sales levels.
( At least lower than seen for several decades. )

Does this bode poorly for future of hobby??

BillJones

I don't know that it does. If you look at the price performance for modern Proof sets, it has been pretty dismal. Even the “key” 1999 sets have fallen from their previous highs, and I would predict that they will continue to drift lower.

Even though the Gray Sheet prices are low, the actual dealer buy prices are even lower. You can figure on getting 8 to 20 percent less than the numbers shown there. Only the truly pristine, spot free sets with perfect boxes and certificates of authenticity bring the prices noted on the Gray Sheet. And, yes, I know of one local wholesaler who gets those prices from other dealers for perfectly preserved sets. There are collectors out there, such as I, who only want “perfect” sets (PR-69, Cam coins in perfect boxes that are not shop worn.)

Perhaps the 2010 clad Proof sets will turn out be a “key” set because of the low mintage. If that proves to be true then speculators might drive up the sales in future years.

RYK

I think the Mint has put out so much product that many people who collect new issues are having trouble keeping up with everything (think baseball cards in the late 1980's) and losing interest in some. The proof set is probably among the least compelling of these issues, and perhaps the first to get dropped when resources are limited.

ricko

I believe it is more a reflection of the economy... not the hobby. Plus, as indicated above, these sets end up taking space and gathering dust. Not much in resale value, and only a few are sought after. Cheers, RickO

Gemineye

<< <i>I think the Mint has put out so much product that many people who collect new issues are having trouble keeping up with everything (think baseball cards in the late 1980's) and losing interest in some. The proof set is probably among the least compelling of these issues, and perhaps the first to get dropped when resources are limited. >>


I ....we've been deluged with so much "crap" that it's becoming worthless...!!!!..Mint packaging in so many different ways ....

Weg

Where do you find the sales numbers for mint products?

291fifth

The US Mint has far, far too many new issues. Collectors are losing interest in anything they can't be sure they can flip for a quick profit.

Weg

Those are not collectors

LanLord

<< <i>I believe it is more a reflection of the economy... not the hobby. Plus, as indicated above, these sets end up taking space and gathering dust. Not much in resale value, and only a few are sought after. Cheers, RickO >>



I believe this is spot on, PROOF sets will always have a small following, but it will take something big to get them into the "public bosom" again. Perhaps a few decades without a "trick coin" release (quarters) and then something interesting to happen.

kiyote

<< <i>Where do you find the sales numbers for mint products? >>



I usually go here:

Mint News Blog

BAJJERFAN

<< <i>I think the Mint has put out so much product that many people who collect new issues are having trouble keeping up with everything (think baseball cards in the late 1980's) and losing interest in some. The proof set is probably among the least compelling of these issues, and perhaps the first to get dropped when resources are limited. >>



This and the fact that they will always be readily available somewhere. It isn't like if you don't get one now you are lost out forever.

BillJones

<< <i>

<< <i>I think the Mint has put out so much product that many people who collect new issues are having trouble keeping up with everything (think baseball cards in the late 1980's) and losing interest in some. The proof set is probably among the least compelling of these issues, and perhaps the first to get dropped when resources are limited. >>



This and the fact that they will always be readily available somewhere. It isn't like if you don't get one now you are lost out forever. >>



I you want a raw four piece set of the 2008-W Buffalo gold in the original mint box, that is virtually unavailable. That is only way I would want that set. I don't like them slabbed. The one of those sets that I saw was at the 2009 FUN show. I've seen none offered since.

Otherwise I would agree with you that the modern stuff is always around.

2manycoins2fewfunds

I think the mint has priced a lot of YN out of the market.

While we may deride offerings such as annual mint uncirculated and proof sets they are still the entry point for many YN.

HoleEbuckets

I agree with the overall consensus here.

The mint is producing too many coin designs: multiple quarter and dollar coins pushes the price of the sets up. The average person looking to buy a set to give as a gift is turned off by the higher price. The speculator is turned off by the low interest from the collector. When will (real) demand return

...Remember when Baseball cards were hot in the late 1980's

BillJones

<< <i>I think the mint has priced a lot of YN out of the market.

While we may deride offerings such as annual mint uncirculated and proof sets they are still the entry point for many YN. >>



What is the mint charging now for the clad Proof coin set? I know that it's up to $40 or $45, which is too much IMO. I can see why they charge so much for silver sets because of the melt value. I don't buy Proof sets from the mint any more because I kept getting so many of them with spots and fingerprints. A local dealer lets me pick an choose out of his stock for a minor fee.

That is a lot of money for a YN. BTW I keep up with the Proof sets. I've got them back to 1942. Perhaps I'll got for the '36 to '41 group some day.

ModernCoin

<< <i>Does this bode poorly for future of hobby?? >>



I think the bigger danger for the future of the hobby is the reliance on plastic by today's younger generation. I'm one of the few people under forty that you'll see at a show who is not with their father or grandfather . Most younger folks have little to no interest in coins and I have several friends who *never* carry cash, and therefore rarely see/handle loose change. It's going to take years to play out, but IMO the biggest threat to the hobby is the fact that one day so few people will use cash/coins that the number of new collectors entering the hobby will slow to a crawl. I certainly hope I'm wrong on that, but my intuition tells me that in 20 years after many of the baby boomers have passed interest in vintage numismatics will decline as well. Hopefully I'm wrong though...

comma

I don't know, but I wish I sold all my silver state quarter proof sets a couple years ago! haha