DJIA is probably a better chart to be currently watching. When the bottom drops out there it should have a negative affect on metals and other asset classes (just as in '09) with a mad dash to cash by investors. Metals will then resume its upward long term trend just as before.
"Interest rates, the price of money, are the most important market. And, perversely, they’re the market that’s most manipulated by the Fed." - Doug Casey
I like these resurrected threads. I remember that was a bold call. It seemed most everyone, me included, saw gold getting closer to $2,500 then where it is today. And, actually, I'm happy about where it stands today. It makes my Box o' $20 effort less painful...which is now in the registry (shameless plug.)
I think gold will again touch the bottom of the "B" trendline. It will either do so with immediacy and plummet down to the ~1250 area in the next few months, or it could trade sideways reaching this trendline in late 2013--almost 2 years. Most likely is a blend of the 2 scenerios--overall sideways consolidation with downside potential. And thats my call for the next year. There will be an opportunity to buy gold at prices lower than current.
dang that was a good call!
With gold sitting at ~$1250, what's the chart look like now?
I see less dollars buying an ounce of gold. Maybe it's not about gold but about dollars. Instead of selling gold at a low, maybe one should consider selling dollars at a high. Better yet, trade dollars for gold.
"Interest rates, the price of money, are the most important market. And, perversely, they’re the market that’s most manipulated by the Fed." - Doug Casey
Cohodk 2008: Gold is done. Cohodk 2009: Gold is done. Cohodk 2010: Gold is done. Cohodk 2011: Gold is done. Cohodk 2012: Gold is done.
And it's not done yet. Be thankful The Fed bailed you out. >>
You have only been here since 2012 and by your own accounts havent read any older threads so how do you know what I said and when.
Would you like me to revive an old thread when I wrote in August 2010 that "every cloud has a silver lining"? Silver went up 150% in the next 8 months.
<< <i>Gonna go out on a limb and show this chart of a plausible scenario for gold over the next 2 years. 2016 could be entertaining as the pattern evolves.
>>
I know a lot of you guys like charts, I do, but I don't think they are much of an indicator of what is going to happen. I'm curious, what if you went back to 1980 or '81 as gold was falling and drew these same lines, what did it indicate?
Looking at the chart, gold vascillates up & down until around July of 2015. Then it ricochets off the right-hand margin and goes down while travelling backward in time until it hits $300/oz sometime around July 2011.
Have we reached the Singularity?
Q: Are You Printing Money? Bernanke: Not Literally
<< <i>Looking at the chart, gold vascillates up & down until around July of 2015. Then it ricochets off the right-hand margin and goes down while travelling backward in time until it hits $300/oz sometime around July 2011.
Have we reached the Singularity? >>
The arrow is meant to point out the little commentary box. Notice the line originates from the little circle thingy. The other blue lines do not have arrows.
Yellowkid, in 1980 PMs were stupidly parabolic and would have projected to declines exceeding 70% and possibly approaching 90%, just as the stock market would have shown in 1929. Or the Nasdaq in 2000.
Im trying to give gold the benefit of the doubt and predicting sideways prices over the next 2 years. The bubble in gold has built up over a 10 year period and was only about 7 fold. If gold had been up 10 fold in 7 years I would predict a decline in price of over 80%. But since the buying has been more "consistent and orderly" I would expect a decline of 38 to 50%. It has dropped almost exactly 38% and that may be all. But there will be no immediate and rapid price increases until despair has been replaced with disgust, and hope replaced with apathy.
Thanks for the info. I had noticed the "fold' spread versus the 70's/80's market and do believe that as some sort of indicator. I don't see gold going back to the levels, adjusted, that it hit in the 80's. I think a sideways market is a good call, but a lot more of a dip also. Long term I'm still bullish,
<< <i>Since gold doesn't operate in a vacuum, how do you think the 3-4 yr consolidation patterns in most of the grains and metals will play into the mix in 2012? It seems those charts should make major moves in 2012. And wouldn't they generally tend to move together?
roadrunner >>
I think gold has been operating in a vacuum all this year. It is one of the few (oil being another) commodites to be higher this year. Why couldnt the grains continue to consolidate over the next 3-4 years? Lots of weather disruptions this past year that could/should have led to higher prices, yet didnt. I dont see any reason why corn, wheat, sugar, copper, nickel, palladium should make major moves in the next year.
I posted this chart a few months ago when I said said "the commod trade is over". Looks to be breaking down to me.
>>
We had better watch how this plays out. The 50 and 200 week moving averages are beginning to turn down and momos are all weak. MGlicker may just get that market decline hes been looking for, albeit for grossly different reasons.
<< <i>Gonna go out on a limb and show this chart of a plausible scenario for gold over the next 2 years. 2016 could be entertaining as the pattern evolves.
>>
So far progressing pretty much (exactly) as predicted. Now we will see if there is a bounce to the upper trendline or if Baley backs up the truck. This chart combined with the one above showing the CCI index should put investors on alert.
Im trying to give gold the benefit of the doubt and predicting sideways prices over the next 2 years. The bubble in gold has built up over a 10 year period and was only about 7 fold. If gold had been up 10 fold in 7 years I would predict a decline in price of over 80%. But since the buying has been more "consistent and orderly" I would expect a decline of 38 to 50%. It has dropped almost exactly 38% and that may be all. But there will be no immediate and rapid price increases until despair has been replaced with disgust, and hope replaced with apathy.
Without any in-depth analysis, I see a regression line hitting around 2100-2200 in mid-2015. edited - whoops, I meant mid-2016! But really, what's the difference? The slope is about the same from 1983 or so...
To be completely fair, I'd want to see the inverse of the dollar's purchasing power (in non-tampered form) juxtaposed on the same chart. I'd also want to look at the aggregate increase in outstanding derivative debt, Treasury debt and unfunded liabilities for the same time period.
Q: Are You Printing Money? Bernanke: Not Literally
Gold, silver and commodities are certainly sitting on precipices. A break of gold's 11 yr uptrend line as Cohodk has shown will bring some misery for another year or more. One major headwind for PMs is that the business/economic confidence cycles aren't reaching their 8.6 year top until end of September 2015. That could allow this stock market rally to last another 8-20 months. And if that happens it will be tough on the commodities sector. If one looks at the monthly gold and silver macd and rsi, they are in massively oversold positions lower than what they were in 1997-1999 and possibly for 15 years before that.
<< <i>Dang RR that monthly turn on silver macd has me really questioning my over 2 1/2 year silver no play... >>
At least in the short term, silver has to break $19.60 for a couple days (ideally $19.88-$20.00) to start a fresh rally. Whether that follows what monthly macd is "forecasting" remains to be seen. The gold to silver ratio is at major cross roads right now with a very bullish looking 5 year inverted head and shoulders pattern (with a nice cup and handle over the past year) that is pointing up to 80 and higher. On the flip side, GSR has been running in a 5 year pattern that could be running out of steam. GSR has typically put in peaks every 4-5 years over the past 35 years (one time it lasted 6 yrs). It's within 2 months of the 6 year point since the last peak in October 2008. It dropped for 2-1/2 years and has now risen for 3-1/4 years. From any number of symmetric cycle views it should be essentially out of time for this 2-3 year rally. The 8 year gold cycle is not due to bottom again until 2016. It's possible GSR could rise into that time frame with either gold rising faster than silver....much as it did from 2001-2003 where gold rose 50% while silver fell in price.
"Interest rates, the price of money, are the most important market. And, perversely, they’re the market that’s most manipulated by the Fed." - Doug Casey
Im just going to say this just one more time. Charts and graphs have NO meaning! the gold price is set, "fixed", twice daily via communication between 4 banks. They set the price with only one adgenda. That adgenda is force the world to accept federal reserve notes. When all the fools are holding federal reserve notes they will pull the plug and allow the price of gold to soar thus condeming the the dollar to exposure to the realization that the dollar has actually allready been killed.
Charts will not set prices, but they will show you when buyers are likely to outnumber sellers and visa versa. If I follow your logic those that fix the price are either schizophrenic or inept as gold had a $1500 trading range over the last decade.
<< <i>Im just going to say this just one more time. Charts and graphs have NO meaning! the gold price is set, "fixed", twice daily via communication between 4 banks. They set the price with only one adgenda. That adgenda is force the world to accept federal reserve notes. When all the fools are holding federal reserve notes they will pull the plug and allow the price of gold to soar thus condeming the the dollar to exposure to the realization that the dollar has actually allready been killed. >>
spoken like a true brainwashed conspiracy advocate....I suppose they managed to "fix" the price up to $2k and then had a change in mind and decided it's time for a "free fall." I feel sorry if you believe all that internet garbage about a few manipulating the world gold and silver. I suppose demand and supply issues were non participants.
"Bongo drive 1984 Lincoln that looks like old coin dug from ground."
Charts clearly demonstrate patterns from the past. The question is, does the past predict the future? Do patterns repeat? I have always been a fundamentals guy who views the charts much like the numbers of past occurrences listed next to a roulette wheel.
Changes in values are driven by many factors, world stability (if there is any), economic conditions with regard to inflow and outflow of capital (with respect to the US economy), interest rates...etc.
If charts could predict the future, then chartism would be taught in all the major business schools in their graduate finance programs.
Retired United States Mint guy, now working on an Everyman Type Set.
Paper is illusory, and there's massive amounts of it to be reckoned with. Gold is simply a bystander - until it's not. The big banks don't particularly like gold, but they can't really ignore it either.
There is plenty decades-old IMF and Treasury documentation that indicates what they will do to suppress the price of gold, so it's not really a conspiracy, now is it?
On the flip side, it's amazing that QE and bailouts can run into the trillions and nobody even bats an eye as long as the hammer doesn't come down on their stock portfolio. It's not as if the debt isn't real, even though that's the att itude being taken.
And then, there's that mysterious Belgian buyer, with an appetite for Treasuries that is virtually bottomless. Don't try to sell me on the fantasy that there's no manipulation. I may be gullible, but I'm not that gullible.
Q: Are You Printing Money? Bernanke: Not Literally
Lol, I say that's a ridiculous conclusion, and even worse it's more of a sore loser remark, because if one was/is so adept at recognizing it should have acted on it bigtime and have the gains to show, not hot air....
Nothing predicts the future, but patterns do repeat. A good chartist is one who learns from the past, whereas most others just repeat the past. And it is the realization of the human propensity to repeat that allows some to extrapolate probabilities.
If you look at the chart I posted a year ago with what I proposed to be a likely scenario over the next year, you will see that it was almost exactly correct. Did I just get lucky, or do I know something?
If you make enough predictions, clearly some will test out. See fortune tellers. However, if you keep accurate records of ALL predictions, what is the batting average?
If charts are so powerful, then why are they not taught in any Finance course at Universities?
The future is based upon inputs and conditions, not a picture of the past. Yes, it can repeat, but causality is the issue.
Kind of like how the super bowl outcome predicted the stock market returns accurately for many, many years. Accurate, but no causal relationship.
Retired United States Mint guy, now working on an Everyman Type Set.
<< <i>If you make enough predictions, clearly some will test out. See fortune tellers. However, if you keep accurate records of ALL predictions, what is the batting average?
If charts are so powerful, then why are they not taught in any Finance course at Universities?
The future is based upon inputs and conditions, not a picture of the past. Yes, it can repeat, but causality is the issue.
Kind of like how the super bowl outcome predicted the stock market returns accurately for many, many years. Accurate, but no causal relationship. >>
<<Paper is illusory, and there's massive amounts of it to be reckoned with>>
If it is an illusion, then why reckon with it. Its just an illusion and doesnt exist, right?
But what is the value of all the paper out there, and what is the value of everything else? Is it really that overwhelming?
Paper has a value as long as the system remains intact. When Hank Paulson stood in front of the Senate Appropriations Committee with a 1 page document demanding a $750 Billion emergency bailout "or else the world as we know it" would come crashing down............................................................................................................................................
................................he wasn't referring to your world or my world. He was referring to his world. I don't know about you, but I don't trust anyone who can simply wish into existence enough money to buy a country - to erase the bad gambling debts of all his closest friends in finance.
You ask, what is the value of the paper, and of everything else? Make the comparison yourself. The paper took virtually no effort to create. Everything else takes actual work, savings & investment to create.
Q: Are You Printing Money? Bernanke: Not Literally
<< <i> But what is the value of all the paper out there, and what is the value of everything else?
You ask, what is the value of the paper that took virtually no effort to create. Everything else takes actual work, savings & investment to create. >>
and people work for money save money and invest money. Without enough money, things slow down and eventually come to a standstill and that is" the end of the world as we know it," at least temporarily as in a severe depression
people work for money save money and invest money. Without enough money, things slow down and eventually come to a standstill and that is" the end of the world as we know it," at least temporarily as in a severe depression
The misconception is in thinking that debt is money. Creating new "money" via the issuance of new debt is merely a transfer of wealth from taxpayers to the privately-owned banking management team of the Fed. The New York Fed (or was it Goldman Sachs?) collects fees on handling every Treasury auction. Either way, it's nice work if you can get it.
We can go 'round and 'round about the propriety vs the necessity of it all, but the main point is that the current pattern of debt creation and misuse of the monetary system is......wait for it.....unsustainable
Q: Are You Printing Money? Bernanke: Not Literally
However, if you keep accurate records of ALL predictions, what is the batting average?
The batting average is evident in the brokerage account.
If charts are so powerful, then why are they not taught in any Finance course at Universities?
Actually several colleges offer TA courses. But, perhaps you should focus on why fundamental analysis is taught. What good has knowledge of "fundamentals" been for PM bulls the last 4 years?
You see, technical analysis and fundamental analysis are only as good as those analyzing the information. Both can be excellent predictors or the future and both can be quite lousy. Rather than disparage a field in which you know nothing, why not try to better understand what you think you do know---fundamentals. The followers of PM fundamentals have been WRONG. I know the typical response is to say "fundamentals havent worked because the game is rigged, or manipulated or there is some other conspiracy." But these are all cop-outs. Just trying to place blame on others because you "know" you are right.
Eventually time will come to the rescue and you can say "I told you so". Until then.........
<< <i>We can go 'round and 'round about the propriety vs the necessity of it all, but the main point is that the current pattern of debt creation and misuse of the monetary system is......wait for it.....unsustainable >>
Didn't a few people say that in 1913, 1914,1915,1916,1917,1918,1919,1920-1930,1932-1940, 1941-1950,1951-1960,1961-1999,2000-2013, jan 1, 2014 - til u again today....
<< <i>We can go 'round and 'round about the propriety vs the necessity of it all, but the main point is that the current pattern of debt creation and misuse of the monetary system is......wait for it.....unsustainable >>
Didn't a few people say that in 1913, 1914,1915,1916,1917,1918,1919,1920-1930,1932-1940, 1941-1950,1951-1960,1961-1999,2000-2013, jan 1, 2014 - til u again today.... >>
Looks like you got the dates right:
"Interest rates, the price of money, are the most important market. And, perversely, they’re the market that’s most manipulated by the Fed." - Doug Casey
<< <i>Since gold doesn't operate in a vacuum, how do you think the 3-4 yr consolidation patterns in most of the grains and metals will play into the mix in 2012? It seems those charts should make major moves in 2012. And wouldn't they generally tend to move together?
roadrunner >>
I think gold has been operating in a vacuum all this year. It is one of the few (oil being another) commodites to be higher this year. Why couldnt the grains continue to consolidate over the next 3-4 years? Lots of weather disruptions this past year that could/should have led to higher prices, yet didnt. I dont see any reason why corn, wheat, sugar, copper, nickel, palladium should make major moves in the next year.
I posted this chart a few months ago when I said said "the commod trade is over". Looks to be breaking down to me.
>>
We had better watch how this plays out. The 50 and 200 week moving averages are beginning to turn down and momos are all weak. MGlicker may just get that market decline hes been looking for, albeit for grossly different reasons. >>
Yup, MGlicker got his decline and for reasons he didnt expect.
What next for this chart? This is where we can make mistakes. My brain says stay with the technicals (going lower) while my heart says pick a bottom. But a old Chinese man once told me, "He who picks bottom gets stinky finger." So I will now go neutral on the future direction.
The CCI index is down 20% over the last 3 years since the charts "told me" the trade was dead. Stupid charts.
Comments
<< <i>
<< <i>Gold 1 --- cohodk 0 second round? >>
Is it all tied up now? >>
Basically equal to a coin flip?
"Interest rates, the price of money, are the most important market. And, perversely, they’re the market that’s most manipulated by the Fed." - Doug Casey
Fantastic call ...not a popular one to make around here but the correct one regardless.
now what?
Groucho Marx
I like these resurrected threads. I remember that was a bold call. It seemed most everyone, me included, saw gold getting closer to $2,500 then where it is today. And, actually, I'm happy about where it stands today. It makes my Box o' $20 effort less painful...which is now in the registry (shameless plug.)
<< <i>Gold 1 ---- Cohodk 1
Fantastic call ...not a popular one to make around here but the correct one regardless.
now what? >>
Lets start to discuss here.
Knowledge is the enemy of fear
dang that was a good call!
With gold sitting at ~$1250, what's the chart look like now?
Liberty: Parent of Science & Industry
"Interest rates, the price of money, are the most important market. And, perversely, they’re the market that’s most manipulated by the Fed." - Doug Casey
Knowledge is the enemy of fear
Knowledge is the enemy of fear
<< <i>
<< <i>Gold 1 --- cohodk 0 second round? >>
Is it all tied up now? >>
Cohodk 1, Gold 5 is more like it.
Cohodk 2008: Gold is done.
Cohodk 2009: Gold is done.
Cohodk 2010: Gold is done.
Cohodk 2011: Gold is done.
Cohodk 2012: Gold is done.
And it's not done yet. Be thankful The Fed bailed you out.
<< <i>
<< <i>
<< <i>Gold 1 --- cohodk 0 second round? >>
Is it all tied up now? >>
Cohodk 1, Gold 5 is more like it.
Cohodk 2008: Gold is done.
Cohodk 2009: Gold is done.
Cohodk 2010: Gold is done.
Cohodk 2011: Gold is done.
Cohodk 2012: Gold is done.
And it's not done yet. Be thankful The Fed bailed you out. >>
You have only been here since 2012 and by your own accounts havent read any older threads so how do you know what I said and when.
Would you like me to revive an old thread when I wrote in August 2010 that "every cloud has a silver lining"? Silver went up 150% in the next 8 months.
Pardon me, but your ignorance is showing.
Knowledge is the enemy of fear
<< <i>
<< <i>What is the scale on your chart? >>
Logarithmic >>
Is that as good as stereo?
<< <i>Gonna go out on a limb and show this chart of a plausible scenario for gold over the next 2 years. 2016 could be entertaining as the pattern evolves.
I know a lot of you guys like charts, I do, but I don't think they are much of an indicator of what is going to happen. I'm curious, what if you went back to 1980 or '81 as gold was falling and drew these same lines, what did it indicate?
Have we reached the Singularity?
I knew it would happen.
<< <i>Looking at the chart, gold vascillates up & down until around July of 2015. Then it ricochets off the right-hand margin and goes down while travelling backward in time until it hits $300/oz sometime around July 2011.
Have we reached the Singularity?
The arrow is meant to point out the little commentary box. Notice the line originates from the little circle thingy. The other blue lines do not have arrows.
Yellowkid, in 1980 PMs were stupidly parabolic and would have projected to declines exceeding 70% and possibly approaching 90%, just as the stock market would have shown in 1929. Or the Nasdaq in 2000.
Im trying to give gold the benefit of the doubt and predicting sideways prices over the next 2 years. The bubble in gold has built up over a 10 year period and was only about 7 fold. If gold had been up 10 fold in 7 years I would predict a decline in price of over 80%. But since the buying has been more "consistent and orderly" I would expect a decline of 38 to 50%. It has dropped almost exactly 38% and that may be all. But there will be no immediate and rapid price increases until despair has been replaced with disgust, and hope replaced with apathy.
Knowledge is the enemy of fear
Still believe that?
Knowledge is the enemy of fear
<< <i>
<< <i>Since gold doesn't operate in a vacuum, how do you think the 3-4 yr consolidation patterns in most of the grains and metals will play into the mix in 2012? It seems
those charts should make major moves in 2012. And wouldn't they generally tend to move together?
roadrunner >>
I think gold has been operating in a vacuum all this year. It is one of the few (oil being another) commodites to be higher this year. Why couldnt the grains continue to consolidate over the next 3-4 years? Lots of weather disruptions this past year that could/should have led to higher prices, yet didnt. I dont see any reason why corn, wheat, sugar, copper, nickel, palladium should make major moves in the next year.
I posted this chart a few months ago when I said said "the commod trade is over". Looks to be breaking down to me.
We had better watch how this plays out. The 50 and 200 week moving averages are beginning to turn down and momos are all weak. MGlicker may just get that market decline hes been looking for, albeit for grossly different reasons.
Knowledge is the enemy of fear
<< <i>
<< <i>Gonna go out on a limb and show this chart of a plausible scenario for gold over the next 2 years. 2016 could be entertaining as the pattern evolves.
So far progressing pretty much (exactly) as predicted. Now we will see if there is a bounce to the upper trendline or if Baley backs up the truck. This chart combined with the one above showing the CCI index should put investors on alert.
Knowledge is the enemy of fear
Without any in-depth analysis, I see a regression line hitting around 2100-2200 in mid-2015. edited - whoops, I meant mid-2016! But really, what's the difference? The slope is about the same from 1983 or so...
To be completely fair, I'd want to see the inverse of the dollar's purchasing power (in non-tampered form) juxtaposed on the same chart. I'd also want to look at the aggregate increase in outstanding derivative debt, Treasury debt and unfunded liabilities for the same time period.
I knew it would happen.
<< <i>Dang RR that monthly turn on silver macd has me really questioning my over 2 1/2 year silver no play... >>
At least in the short term, silver has to break $19.60 for a couple days (ideally $19.88-$20.00) to start a fresh rally. Whether that follows what monthly macd is "forecasting" remains to be seen. The gold to silver ratio is at major cross roads right now with a very bullish looking 5 year inverted head and shoulders pattern (with a nice cup and handle over the past year) that is pointing up to 80 and higher. On the flip side, GSR has been running in a 5 year pattern that could be running out of steam. GSR has typically put in peaks every 4-5 years over the past 35 years (one time it lasted 6 yrs). It's within 2 months of the 6 year point since the last peak in October 2008. It dropped for 2-1/2 years and has now risen for 3-1/4 years. From any number of symmetric cycle views it should be essentially out of time for this 2-3 year rally. The 8 year gold cycle is not due to bottom again until 2016. It's possible GSR could rise into that time frame with either gold rising faster than silver....much as it did from 2001-2003 where gold rose 50% while silver fell in price.
GSR graphs
<< <i>
This guy is looking for titanium. Speaking to the price of Tee in China.
"Interest rates, the price of money, are the most important market. And, perversely, they’re the market that’s most manipulated by the Fed." - Doug Casey
Knowledge is the enemy of fear
<< <i>Im just going to say this just one more time. Charts and graphs have NO meaning! the gold price is set, "fixed", twice daily via communication between 4 banks. They set the price with only one adgenda. That adgenda is force the world to accept federal reserve notes. When all the fools are holding federal reserve notes they will pull the plug and allow the price of gold to soar thus condeming the the dollar to exposure to the realization that the dollar has actually allready been killed. >>
spoken like a true brainwashed conspiracy advocate....I suppose they managed to "fix" the price up to $2k and then had a change in mind and decided it's time for a "free fall." I feel sorry if you believe all that internet garbage about a few manipulating the world gold and silver. I suppose demand and supply issues were non participants.
Changes in values are driven by many factors, world stability (if there is any), economic conditions with regard to inflow and outflow of capital (with respect to the US economy), interest rates...etc.
If charts could predict the future, then chartism would be taught in all the major business schools in their graduate finance programs.
There is plenty decades-old IMF and Treasury documentation that indicates what they will do to suppress the price of gold, so it's not really a conspiracy, now is it?
On the flip side, it's amazing that QE and bailouts can run into the trillions and nobody even bats an eye as long as the hammer doesn't come down on their stock portfolio. It's not as if the debt isn't real, even though that's the att itude being taken.
And then, there's that mysterious Belgian buyer, with an appetite for Treasuries that is virtually bottomless. Don't try to sell me on the fantasy that there's no manipulation. I may be gullible, but I'm not that gullible.
I knew it would happen.
Nothing predicts the future, but patterns do repeat. A good chartist is one who learns from the past, whereas most others just repeat the past. And it is the realization of the human propensity to repeat that allows some to extrapolate probabilities.
If you look at the chart I posted a year ago with what I proposed to be a likely scenario over the next year, you will see that it was almost exactly correct. Did I just get lucky, or do I know something?
Knowledge is the enemy of fear
If it is an illusion, then why reckon with it. Its just an illusion and doesnt exist, right?
But what is the value of all the paper out there, and what is the value of everything else? Is it really that overwhelming?
Knowledge is the enemy of fear
If charts are so powerful, then why are they not taught in any Finance course at Universities?
The future is based upon inputs and conditions, not a picture of the past. Yes, it can repeat, but causality is the issue.
Kind of like how the super bowl outcome predicted the stock market returns accurately for many, many years. Accurate, but no causal relationship.
<< <i>If you make enough predictions, clearly some will test out. See fortune tellers. However, if you keep accurate records of ALL predictions, what is the batting average?
If charts are so powerful, then why are they not taught in any Finance course at Universities?
The future is based upon inputs and conditions, not a picture of the past. Yes, it can repeat, but causality is the issue.
Kind of like how the super bowl outcome predicted the stock market returns accurately for many, many years. Accurate, but no causal relationship. >>
If it is an illusion, then why reckon with it. Its just an illusion and doesnt exist, right?
But what is the value of all the paper out there, and what is the value of everything else? Is it really that overwhelming?
Paper has a value as long as the system remains intact. When Hank Paulson stood in front of the Senate Appropriations Committee with a 1 page document demanding a $750 Billion emergency bailout "or else the world as we know it" would come crashing down............................................................................................................................................
................................he wasn't referring to your world or my world. He was referring to his world. I don't know about you, but I don't trust anyone who can simply wish into existence enough money to buy a country - to erase the bad gambling debts of all his closest friends in finance.
You ask, what is the value of the paper, and of everything else? Make the comparison yourself. The paper took virtually no effort to create. Everything else takes actual work, savings & investment to create.
I knew it would happen.
<< <i>
But what is the value of all the paper out there, and what is the value of everything else?
You ask, what is the value of the paper that took virtually no effort to create. Everything else takes actual work, savings & investment to create. >>
and people work for money save money and invest money. Without enough money, things slow down and eventually come to a standstill and that is" the end of the world as we know it," at least temporarily as in a severe depression
Liberty: Parent of Science & Industry
I see more gold than charts every day. I'd rather see patients , so I could afford real coins.
The misconception is in thinking that debt is money. Creating new "money" via the issuance of new debt is merely a transfer of wealth from taxpayers to the privately-owned banking management team of the Fed. The New York Fed (or was it Goldman Sachs?) collects fees on handling every Treasury auction. Either way, it's nice work if you can get it.
We can go 'round and 'round about the propriety vs the necessity of it all, but the main point is that the current pattern of debt creation and misuse of the monetary system is......wait for it.....unsustainable
I knew it would happen.
The batting average is evident in the brokerage account.
If charts are so powerful, then why are they not taught in any Finance course at Universities?
Actually several colleges offer TA courses. But, perhaps you should focus on why fundamental analysis is taught. What good has knowledge of "fundamentals" been for PM bulls the last 4 years?
You see, technical analysis and fundamental analysis are only as good as those analyzing the information. Both can be excellent predictors or the future and both can be quite lousy. Rather than disparage a field in which you know nothing, why not try to better understand what you think you do know---fundamentals. The followers of PM fundamentals have been WRONG. I know the typical response is to say "fundamentals havent worked because the game is rigged, or manipulated or there is some other conspiracy." But these are all cop-outs. Just trying to place blame on others because you "know" you are right.
Eventually time will come to the rescue and you can say "I told you so". Until then.........
Knowledge is the enemy of fear
<< <i>We can go 'round and 'round about the propriety vs the necessity of it all, but the main point is that the current pattern of debt creation and misuse of the monetary system is......wait for it.....unsustainable >>
Didn't a few people say that in 1913, 1914,1915,1916,1917,1918,1919,1920-1930,1932-1940, 1941-1950,1951-1960,1961-1999,2000-2013, jan 1, 2014 - til u again today....
<< <i>
<< <i>We can go 'round and 'round about the propriety vs the necessity of it all, but the main point is that the current pattern of debt creation and misuse of the monetary system is......wait for it.....unsustainable >>
Didn't a few people say that in 1913, 1914,1915,1916,1917,1918,1919,1920-1930,1932-1940, 1941-1950,1951-1960,1961-1999,2000-2013, jan 1, 2014 - til u again today.... >>
Looks like you got the dates right:
"Interest rates, the price of money, are the most important market. And, perversely, they’re the market that’s most manipulated by the Fed." - Doug Casey
<< <i>
<< <i>
<< <i>Since gold doesn't operate in a vacuum, how do you think the 3-4 yr consolidation patterns in most of the grains and metals will play into the mix in 2012? It seems
those charts should make major moves in 2012. And wouldn't they generally tend to move together?
roadrunner >>
I think gold has been operating in a vacuum all this year. It is one of the few (oil being another) commodites to be higher this year. Why couldnt the grains continue to consolidate over the next 3-4 years? Lots of weather disruptions this past year that could/should have led to higher prices, yet didnt. I dont see any reason why corn, wheat, sugar, copper, nickel, palladium should make major moves in the next year.
I posted this chart a few months ago when I said said "the commod trade is over". Looks to be breaking down to me.
We had better watch how this plays out. The 50 and 200 week moving averages are beginning to turn down and momos are all weak. MGlicker may just get that market decline hes been looking for, albeit for grossly different reasons. >>
Yup, MGlicker got his decline and for reasons he didnt expect.
What next for this chart? This is where we can make mistakes. My brain says stay with the technicals (going lower) while my heart says pick a bottom. But a old Chinese man once told me, "He who picks bottom gets stinky finger." So I will now go neutral on the future direction.
The CCI index is down 20% over the last 3 years since the charts "told me" the trade was dead. Stupid charts.
Knowledge is the enemy of fear
Perhaps you do not consider MIT to be a university?
What do we know NOW?
Chemtrails, UFOs & conglomerates(thanks for this new one DB).
Charts still give me a headache & GSR is 75/1-WOW.
"Feel the Force, Luke"
I knew it would happen.