What I see in the current gold chart.
cohodk
Posts: 19,084 ✭✭✭✭✭
What the gold chart is saying to me...
There are 2 major uptrend lines in place.
A. Off the 2002 low.
B. Off the 2005 low. I can also draw a parallel line that connects the peaks making this a nicely defined channel.
I think gold will again touch the bottom of the "B" trendline. It will either do so with immediacy and plummet down to the ~1250 area in the next few months, or it could trade sideways reaching this trendline in late 2013--almost 2 years. Most likely is a blend of the 2 scenerios--overall sideways consolidation with downside potential. And thats my call for the next year. There will be an opportunity to buy gold at prices lower than current. Even if gold manages to push higher, I do believe it will still touch this trendline. IE, if it goes to 2000+ in the near future, it will still gravitate toward that B trendline. A trader would take profits on rallies.
The steep trendline off the 2008 lows--led by the inflation and fiat collapse trade--has been broken and will now act as resistance. Since it is a rising line, gold could still go higher, but will be capped. $2000 is not reached until mid-summer 2012, if at all.
There are 2 major uptrend lines in place.
A. Off the 2002 low.
B. Off the 2005 low. I can also draw a parallel line that connects the peaks making this a nicely defined channel.
I think gold will again touch the bottom of the "B" trendline. It will either do so with immediacy and plummet down to the ~1250 area in the next few months, or it could trade sideways reaching this trendline in late 2013--almost 2 years. Most likely is a blend of the 2 scenerios--overall sideways consolidation with downside potential. And thats my call for the next year. There will be an opportunity to buy gold at prices lower than current. Even if gold manages to push higher, I do believe it will still touch this trendline. IE, if it goes to 2000+ in the near future, it will still gravitate toward that B trendline. A trader would take profits on rallies.
The steep trendline off the 2008 lows--led by the inflation and fiat collapse trade--has been broken and will now act as resistance. Since it is a rising line, gold could still go higher, but will be capped. $2000 is not reached until mid-summer 2012, if at all.
Excuses are tools of the ignorant
Knowledge is the enemy of fear
0
Comments
I knew it would happen.
But it might go sideways?
Or it might go up to $2000?
World Collection
British Collection
German States Collection
<< <i>What is the scale on your chart? >>
Logarithmic
Knowledge is the enemy of fear
<< <i>So if I read this correctly you are predicting gold will go down to $1250?
But it might go sideways?
Or it might go up to $2000? >>
Im saying gold will be in a big range over the next 12-24 months. It could go to 2000, but would not be sustained at that price. It could go to 1250 but would not be sustained at that price. It will be a great time for traders, and a frustrating time for stackers. I see no need to rush into gold at current levels.
Knowledge is the enemy of fear
"Interest rates, the price of money, are the most important market. And, perversely, they’re the market that’s most manipulated by the Fed." - Doug Casey
those charts should make major moves in 2012. And wouldn't they generally tend to move together?
roadrunner
<< <i>Since gold doesn't operate in a vacuum, how do you think the 3-4 yr consolidation patterns in most of the grains and metals will play into the mix in 2012? It seems
those charts should make major moves in 2012. And wouldn't they generally tend to move together?
roadrunner >>
I think gold has been operating in a vacuum all this year. It is one of the few (oil being another) commodites to be higher this year. Why couldnt the grains continue to consolidate over the next 3-4 years? Lots of weather disruptions this past year that could/should have led to higher prices, yet didnt. I dont see any reason why corn, wheat, sugar, copper, nickel, palladium should make major moves in the next year.
I posted this chart a few months ago when I said said "the commod trade is over". Looks to be breaking down to me.
Knowledge is the enemy of fear
it's in my quiver
I totally agree. Okay, well maybe I agree about 99.93%.
I expect volatility and wouldn't be surprised to see gold all over the map, with an upward bias next year. cohodk, you mention demographics from time to time, and I would point to demographics worldwide rather than just in the US and Europe. The global trends are toward gold accumulation, and there are several good reasons why it makes sense for both governments and individuals to accumulate it.
I think we are in a new paradigm that started in 2008 with the TARP bailout. In addition, your chart depicts different linear progressions as channel limits in a logarithmic scale. I've never understood the point of doing that. Can you explain? If something is logarithmic, it's not linear.
I knew it would happen.
I disagree 100%.
Charts are based on market psychology. Everyone is already aware of "crumbling world financial status". Unless something "new" and "unexpected" comes along, the charts should hold true.
Knowledge is the enemy of fear
<< <i>I believe the crumbling world financial status to be too volatile and unpredictable to apply normal chart forcasting.
I totally agree. Okay, well maybe I agree about 99.93%.
I expect volatility and wouldn't be surprised to see gold all over the map, with an upward bias next year. cohodk, you mention demographics from time to time, and I would point to demographics worldwide rather than just in the US and Europe. The global trends are toward gold accumulation, and there are several good reasons why it makes sense for both governments and individuals to accumulate it.
I think we are in a new paradigm that started in 2008 with the TARP bailout. In addition, your chart depicts different linear progressions as channel limits in a logarithmic scale. I've never understood the point of doing that. Can you explain? If something is logarithmic, it's not linear. >>
Demographics. Yes. But I think the world is more concerned about putting in their mouths than speculating in gold. I dont see any reason why governments would want to buy gold. If I were China or India, I would be looking to buy farmland in the US or Canada, rather than buying gold. Makes no sense to me. Obviously some people value gold differently than I. People often talk about gold's "fundamentals". I dont think it has any more "fundamentals" than Catholicism, Judaism, Islam, Buddism, ect. No offense meant to anyone, I just see a relationship, thats all.
Logarithmic charts are good for depicting longer term periods when there is great price change. They tend to remove the "parabolic" look of a chart as a $100 move is much less important at lets say $1900/oz than at $500/oz. If I use an arithmatic chart, which I have many times, you will clearly see the parabola that has developed in gold over the past decade. In either instance, my assumption of gold's future move would be the same.
Knowledge is the enemy of fear
<< <i> In addition, your chart depicts different linear progressions as channel limits in a logarithmic scale. I've never understood the point of doing that. Can you explain? If something is logarithmic, it's not linear. >>
Yes Yes, Please use linear scale and your trend lines. I'm an old Gann throwback and like the 1to1 (linear)
<< <i>I believe the crumbling world financial status to be too volatile and unpredictable to apply normal chart forcasting
I disagree 100%.
Charts are based on market psychology. Everyone is already aware of "crumbling world financial status". Unless something "new" and "unexpected" comes along, the charts should hold true. >>
a crumbling world financial status brings something new and unexpected on a fairly regular basis.
Charts are based on price history, they are a snapshot of the past. Price history is based on past market participant buying behavior. In the case of gold (and many other asset classes) that behavior is based on fear and greed. Fear and greed are driven by current and expected events not the past. My PM buying decisions are based on how I expect current events to drive fear and greed. Charts are only useful to me when I can tie them to past events and see repitition in those events. FED Quantative Easing is an example.
Here's the type chart I like to study (Gary Dorsch chart):
"Interest rates, the price of money, are the most important market. And, perversely, they’re the market that’s most manipulated by the Fed." - Doug Casey
Methinks you got it absolutely rite. Was thinking today about how the paper gold screws up physical spot so bad that you really can't prognosticate very well since paper is so playable and physical isn't really as available as it used to be. I'm seeing not much selling and eager buying at least on the street level. Farmland is valuable and probably one of the best buys in the world right now in terms of physical and if it's got a house on it...Hey, baby, you've made it to Baleyville!
I went into a couple of pawn shops today looking for some Christmas rounds or bars for stocking stuffers but no metal at all. Plenty of marked up second hand jewelry and some cheap knock off watches and used guns and junk but no metal. So I went into a huge (5000 sf or so) $4gold place mainly because I had never been in that store and also because I had never been in that store and I was looking for some Christmas silver.
Nope, no Christmas silver but plenty of age and ase, well not plenty, a total of about 20 pieces of various stuff. There were about a dozen people in there including 3 uniforms and everyone behind the counters had a sidearm. Talked to the guy and he said his spread on any US numismatics like buffalos or age's is buy 5% back of spot and sell 5% in front, if the stuff is easily recognizable and liquid (yeah, I'm going to sell him a buffalo for 5% back). If the stuff is off of the mainstream then it becomes more negotiable. Anyway, I got a couple of GW proof 90% halve dollars and a fairly cool Merrill Lynch 1 oz .999 bar from him for spot +5% but still no Christmas coins. I did ask him what he wanted for the 1/10 age's and he first said 195 and I replied that was a little too stiff so he backed of to 185 but no sale, I'd have maybe gone 170, maybe. So it's off to the coin shop tomorrow...damn, that's going to cost me some buks. But, if ML goes the way of MF, I may well have a cool bar and now I know what one of those places looks like from the inside.
That is all...Please return to your regularly scheduled programming and Merry Christmas.
... and has done so for centuries. The song remains the same, but the verses and where and who is singing them are "different this time"
I'll bet ANYONE who suffered through a true national or worldwide "CRISIS" in the past would gladly trade places with any of these 21st century crisis victims
Our "plagues" are a joke, our "famines" are a diet, and pestilence? They make a lotion for that now, clear it right up.
Happy holidays
Liberty: Parent of Science & Industry
Gold never really operates in a vacuum since it's a world-wide trade that is merely a reflection of confidence in currencies and govts. And lack of confidence in debt money and govts is certainly in a long term bull market. I look at the corn chart and I just don't see it pulling the plug for another year, let alone another 3-4 yrs. Weather, while important is just a shorter term factor in the grains. This consolidation has taken 4 yrs which encompasses a lot of one-off weather. QE3 has been happening behind the scenes regardless of what name it's called. The EU is spending $500 BILL and that's not called a QE by anybody either.
CCI has completed a nice 5 wave set this year. And the last move down since late October has 5 waves in it as well. Seems ripe for an extended turn if not just to retest the breakdown
of that 3 yr uptrend line. I think the death of commods is premature. All the corrections in CCI over this 8 yr bull run have lasted typically 2 quarters. This current one at 9-1/2 months is already very long in the tooth as far as commod corrections go. Note that even the monster 2008 dip only took 2 quarters before it was all over.
roadrunner
Im not saying they are all going to zero. Just that I dont think they will go up tomorrow or next week or next year. A lot of money went into them this year that is now underwater. I dont see high ground.
derryb, we'll just have to disagree on what charts mean and how to read them.
PC, you may be correct in a globally coordinated QE event. If so, this probably doesnt weaken the dollar as currencies trade relative to each other.
Knowledge is the enemy of fear
<<"I would be looking to buy farmland in the US..."
Methinks you got it absolutely rite. Was thinking today about how the paper gold screws up physical spot so bad that you really can't prognosticate very well since paper is so playable and physical isn't really as available as it used to be. I'm seeing not much selling and eager buying at least on the street level. Farmland is valuable and probably one of the best buys in the world right now in terms of physical and if it's got a house on it...Hey, baby, you've made it to Baleyville!>>
interesting idea, I'll have to look into that..........
<< <i>derryb, we'll just have to disagree on what charts mean and how to read them. >>
Reading them is no problem. Guessing the immediate future from them makes them as reliable as tea leaves. While of some value to the investor, long term trends are useless in my effort to profit from short term paper trades.
"Interest rates, the price of money, are the most important market. And, perversely, they’re the market that’s most manipulated by the Fed." - Doug Casey
The rise in US Debt has been much quicker than the rise in US population, and that's not even taking into account the fiat multipliers we have all grown to know and cherish.
It's not about gold. It's about the math.
I knew it would happen.
This New Year's eve, let's party like it's 1799
Liberty: Parent of Science & Industry
Quite frankly I see nothing wrong with gold trading between 1300 and 2000 for a few years.
We have already seen the devil in 2008 and currently in Europe. Is he scary? You bet. But the more often you see something that frightens you, the less scared you get. You no longer turn away, but you begin to stand up against it. Soon you find its weakness and defeat it. Gold had a major run because we were afraid of the future. Well I think we've already seen a good bit of it and know what to expect. Now it isnt so scary. Markets move in response to future expections and as those expectations are met the markets change. The bite of the big scary inflation monster just doesnt match his bark. Expections not met.
Knowledge is the enemy of fear
Groucho Marx
another $100 TRILL since then to all time record territory, I would say we haven't even begun to scratch the surface of what can happen. It continues to be debt and
derivatives that have taken down Bear Stearns, Lehman, MF Global, etc. I'm plenty concerned that our financial trading system from J6P to Cede and Co. is toast.
Charts won't be much help to anyone if you can't get your money back from your broker/custodian. This is where we stand today.
Sure, we now have Franken-Dodd but it doesn't begin to address the most serious issues behind the financial crisis.
roadrunner
Oh, yeah, don't forget a little O&G minerals...if you want to really be old timey.
<< <i>Gold 1 --- cohodk 0 second round? >>
Yup, Uncle Ben screwed me on that one. I still contend that all those people who were buying proof gold eagles at the time are still underwater at todays price which was the main point of my thread as I saw the extreme premiums being paid as a warning sign.
Knowledge is the enemy of fear
I dont see gold at 1250 unless the dollar REALLY perks up...
Groucho Marx
<< <i>2012 is an election year ...can you imagine what a 100+ index dollar would to to our fragile economy?
I dont see gold at 1250 unless the dollar REALLY perks up... >>
I dont see 100 on the dollar index either. And like I mentioned, if gold were to hit 1250, it would be just a quick spike lower and not sustained at that price level.
Knowledge is the enemy of fear
<< <i>
<< <i>2012 is an election year ...can you imagine what a 100+ index dollar would to to our fragile economy?
I dont see gold at 1250 unless the dollar REALLY perks up... >>
I dont see 100 on the dollar index either. And like I mentioned, if gold were to hit 1250, it would be just a quick spike lower and not sustained at that price level. >>
dollar index stands to strengthen greatly when true value of major banks becomes more of a reality to investors who still have their heads in the sand.
"Interest rates, the price of money, are the most important market. And, perversely, they’re the market that’s most manipulated by the Fed." - Doug Casey
It is always true that uninformed people will always be sucker-bait for financial hypsters selling stuff at unreasonable margins and unreasonable markups. The Proof AGE phenomenon is scarcely different than what I see now as people keeping their life's savings in the market when it is no longer driven by earnings or any of the traditional methods of stock valuation and when liquidity is being created only for the purposes of retiring banker's losses and pumping up the stock market with diluted currency.
I see Europe as the key. The fact is, that if the European Financial Model collapses completely, we will have our template. If Europe collapses completely and we continue the same policies as Europe, then our system will collapse the same way. It may take longer because of our innate differences, but the result will be the same. So, this is the reason we are sending "swap money" (what the hell is that) to cover Europe's new bailout efforts. Since our ratios are as bad or worse, the end result will be that our cascading debt will cascade a little faster. It's already fast, but since our economy and system are bigger, it will just nudge the needle a little more to "accelerate".
We've got a massive government default coming. I really don't know what that means for the dollar because there are other variables that can still factor in as the government tries to save itself - bigger tax increases probably. If property taxes take a big leap to address large looming unfunded liabilities for the social welfare state and incalculable financial derivative bailouts that will indefinitely linger on bank balance sheets until they have to be settled or rolled over, what good will it be to own land if you can't pay the taxes on it? I'm becoming more concerned that a large transfer of private property ownership to the government due to foreclosure is coming because of large tax levies.
The government holds all the cards, and they have no reservation in playing every single card in the deck if it means their own skins (careers, fortunes, power base). These are not nice people, by and large.
That's my issue with buying farmland now.
I knew it would happen.
<< <i>I see Europe as the key. >>
Europe is a major recipient of US exports and their demise will greatly affect the US economy.
"Interest rates, the price of money, are the most important market. And, perversely, they’re the market that’s most manipulated by the Fed." - Doug Casey
But if we did buy land, then the income from it should be able to pay the tax man.
If Europe collapses, why do you think the USA would follow the same path? Everyone keeps says things are unsustainable, yet in the same breath they say it will be sustained (no changes will be made). Cant have both.
Europe will not "demise", ie become dead. There are 350 million people there who will continue to live, breathe, eat, consume. Extraneous services such as dog groomers, maids and manicurists may fade into the dark, but the people will still live. From necessity breeds innovation. Humankinds best days lie ahead.
Knowledge is the enemy of fear
<< <i>Europe will not "demise", ie become dead. There are 350 million people there who will continue to live, breathe, eat, consume. Extraneous services such as dog groomers, maids and manicurists may fade into the dark, but the people will still live. From necessity breeds innovation. Humankinds best days lie ahead. >>
A serious european recession, even depression, will have a major affect on US exports and the US economy. I'm sure there is a chart somewhere that can point this out.
Japan's lost decade (or two) is going global as credit bills become due.
"Interest rates, the price of money, are the most important market. And, perversely, they’re the market that’s most manipulated by the Fed." - Doug Casey
A serious european recession, even depression, will have a major affect on US exports and the US economy. I'm sure there is a chart somewhere that can point this out.
Japan's lost decade (or two) is going global.
>>
Japan is not "demise" either, despite several setbacks including, in rapid succession, an earthquake, tsunami, and nuclear meltdown, considering those, Japan is hanging in there and will emerge stronger someday, not counted out forever.
If a company is selling product with strong demand (due to demographics) regardless of "economy" a subset of certain markets will still thrive.
Countries, don't really "die" anymore, they just change, sometimes including the name, some not.
Several of my friends have gone to work in the same specialty plant at the same address for 15 years, doing the same jobs with the same people.
the name of the company on the signage of the building has changed 3 times. each time the "leadership" of the region changed, but "the population" just went on working and playing, some taking advantage of various cards that are dealt and getting promoted and more interesting jobs, others phased out through no fault of their own but just bad circumstances like a division or group being eliminated from the organization, sometimes in the redundancy that occurs with mergers. Other individiuals got laid off in the wave or individually fired for negligence or incompetance or laziness, this selective trimming of dead wood is good for the organization, whether it be on the scale of a company/market segment/economy/country/continent/... and someday in our future, if we're lucky as a species... systems on the planet/solar system/galactic region/galaxy scale may someday develop (or it already exists and someday Man will join them) but in the meantime people and groups of people should take a lot more responsibility for the outcome of their efforts, no doubt many resent all the evil bankers and crooked politics, but most folks just try to do the best they can and leave the big big thinking to bigger brains than their own. Bless Bear's heart, on his deathbed he held deep concern for the whole planet and all the people on it, that's really a lot of care to carry.
anyway, I've been saying sideways in all markets is both the aim and the result of "Big Brother"S efforts, soon, very soon (like a year from now, after the election) everyone can stop sitting on their asses and betting on the volatility and broadcasting the latest bad news, and get back to work because the political, economic, and regulatory uncertainty will be reduced from the levels it is now, and the markets for most asset classes will revert to a competition among that segment's members
Liberty: Parent of Science & Industry
beware the carrying costs including taxes, insurance, maintenance, fully burdened costs to produce if it's a "working" farm and not idle etc
personally, I don't want to live or invest out in the boonies, nor work on a farm, so the only kind of real estate I'll consider is what I call a "builder's special" property..
you know, the one in the prime spot in a development, often these were the models that were shown when the land was first developed, or they're on the corner or edge of the space, or on the high point with good views, the kind of lot the insiders in the project got first dibs on, like the architect or contractors, or that folks waited in line to claim in the first round of sales, or that has been recently quality remodeled. Such properties, like the nice coins, cost a premium going in, but are easy to rent or sell and you usually get the premium back with interest on the other end, unless you're desperate to move it (in which case, you made a mistake buying it in the first place, and if mortgaged the lender made a mistake lending, and everyone should be held responsible not write it off to The Public)
Like the rare coins, the markets for all goods and services are gettin more selective as buyers are getting more educated, and folks want something special; Ordinary is out in the 21st century markets.
Anyway, back to topic, I agree the gold chart looks to bode flat to down from 1600 to me if everything were Ordinary (i.e. stable and boring) but news could indeed push it 600 either way (1000-2200) I don't see it outside that range, but I also don't care that much what gold does, it's only 5% of my Snowball.
I do really like the color and the way it sparkles
Liberty: Parent of Science & Industry
"Interest rates, the price of money, are the most important market. And, perversely, they’re the market that’s most manipulated by the Fed." - Doug Casey
At least you have a City watch and shoes on
Liberty: Parent of Science & Industry
Try putting that chart up in linear format for us old Gannites, complete with your trend lines.
But if we did buy land, then the income from it should be able to pay the tax man.
If Europe collapses, why do you think the USA would follow the same path? Everyone keeps says things are unsustainable, yet in the same breath they say it will be sustained (no changes will be made). Cant have both.
Europe will not "demise", ie become dead. There are 350 million people there who will continue to live, breathe, eat, consume. Extraneous services such as dog groomers, maids and manicurists may fade into the dark, but the people will still live. From necessity breeds innovation. Humankinds best days lie ahead.
I'm not saying you shouldn't buy farmland, I'm saying that I believe it is essential to wet your finger and to stick it high in the air to see which way the wind is blowing before you do.
I'm also saying that if the economy stagnates as a result of the debt burden such that zero rates don't even help, and if taxes increase so as to make most enterprise (including food production) unprofitable, we could see the same problems as in the 1930's. You know the story, people losing farms because they couldn't pay their taxes on land that couldn't produce enough of a cash crop to sustain the farm, cash as King, high unemployment and not just tough times - rough times - for a greater and greater percentage of people.
The USA won't collapse because of Europe necessarily, although Europe could very well be the trigger. We just have no way of knowing. The USA is following Europe's path right now, in spite of seeing the problems. Yes, it's unsustainable and the politicians are still trying to sustain a bogus numbers game by allowing their powerful banker friends off the hook and by throwing a bone to the poor, uneducated and/or lazy - in return for...............you fill in the blank.
I said that the European Model will crash. The term for the endgame would be serfdom. The politicians already act that way. They can't stand having a middle class.
I knew it would happen.
Other required analysis involves Moving Average, Fibonacci, Volume and Elliot Wave charts.
None are valid on their own.
Of recent importance:
Gold recently broke through the 200 Day Moving Average support.
Gold has done this three times in the last few years.
And after each penetration to the downside, came large moves to the upside...
It's not for spending, it's for growing food to eat.
Liberty: Parent of Science & Industry
<< <i>Trendline (price) charts are great, but just one tool in the toolbelt.
Other required analysis involves Moving Average, Fibonacci, Volume and Elliot Wave charts.
None are valid on their own.
Of recent importance:
Gold recently broke through the 200 Day Moving Average support.
Gold has done this three times in the last few years.
And after each penetration to the downside, came large moves to the upside... >>
No, The last time gold broke down through the 200 day moving average was August 2008 when it went down to under $700
This current breakdown is a serious one and not just a spike under and back up, its been stuck under it for 9 days and hasn't been able to close above it
<< <i>No, The last time gold broke down through the 200 day moving average was August 2008 when it went down to under $700
This current breakdown is a serious one and not just a spike under and back up, its been stuck under it for 9 days and hasn't been able to close above it >>
Rather than focus on the worst case break of the 200 dma, let's consider all 5 major ones since the 2001-2002 breakout. Those 5 occurrences lasted from approx 6-26
weeks below or at the 200 dma. The 2008 crash was the worst of the group. But the one in 2004 spent more than half of its 20 weeks under the 200 dma. The other
3 excursions were more short-lived and lasted 6,7, and 12 wks. There are others lasting from 1-3 weeks but I wouldn't call those significant. The current pullback is
still short of the 2 week point. I think we have more to go to prove which of the above 3 categories this one is going to fall into.
The 21% drop to $1533 in Sept 2011 took only 4 weeks to accomplish. A similar % drop in 2008 took 21 weeks. If anything, volatility is compressing the time frame on the
current charts. Gold may not need the same 7 months to work off the excess as it did in 2008...and it may not need 21-26 weeks below the 200 dma as well.
Another factor worth considering is that 14 of those sub-200 dma 26 wks in 2008 occurred when the 200 dma was in a downtrend. All the other dips below the 200 dma have
been fairly well constrained because the 200 dma was an in an uptrend. The 200 dma is still trending upwards. Before we jump off the cliff, let's see if it turns negative for only
the 2nd time in this 10-1/2 yr bull market.
roadrunner
Indeed, as you demonstrate, there HAVE BEEN several times in the past few years (as I stated) where gold has been under the 200 DEMA.
So far, we have only looked at the arbitrary trend lines (based on time periods) and compression periods.
There are still Moving Average, Fibonacci, Volume and Elliot Wave components that need to be considered, IN MY OPINION (this was the point of my post) that NEED to be considered for a more full analyses.
For example,
http://thestockmarketw***atch.com/metal/gold-price.aspx
NOTE: This last down move has been on DECLINING volume since the impulse move down (which started in September). On the monthly’s, there has NOT been one month in the past year where the down volume has exceeded the monthly up volume.
Moreover, the down volume has *declined* since the impulse move down started. Note how the down volume, even during the large POG price drop in 2008, NEVER exceeded the previous period(s) UP VOLUME? That divergence btw price and volume flushed a LOT of weak hands out of the market and formed a base for this NICE and LARGE three run bull (continuation) market where the price once again doubled.
We haven’t even looks at Fib, and Elliot wave counts yet (nor seasonal nor cyclical nor secular positions).
Sure, you can base your opinion on ONE factor. That’s what the folks did in 2008. They just happened to not look at the wider picture – and therefore got the longer view wrong…
(remove asterisks to avoid the 'naughty' word - a prime example of regulation without brains)
<< <i>Gold 1 --- cohodk 0 second round? >>
Is it all tied up now?
Knowledge is the enemy of fear
<< <i>2012 will bring quantitative easing - not just the US but especially Europe in quantities not seen before. This will push gold higher if nothing else. >>
Congratulations on your predictions of 12/11...Partially correct for the first 2, but you struck a blank for the last one.