Silver, why are you such a dog?
piecesofme
Posts: 6,669 ✭✭✭
I know you had a real nice run, and alot of people will still say that you are at the top of your game, but I've gotta call it like I see it.
Silver, you are a dog! Why I stay invested in you when you can't break out of a 5% range to save your life at a time when you should be thriving baffles me. You've done nothing for me these last 3-4 months but tie up good money that could be spent on something else. You make me feel like a bagholder when I know that you're better than that.
Oh, what's that you say? The CME manipulates you, holding you down from your true market value?
ok, I'll give you that, but why can't you shed that baggage and show people what you really have?
I am about out of patience with you Silver and if you don't get your act together, you and I are just going to have to part ways, because the dead money that you are causing me to be subject to just aint gettin' it anymore. Silver, consider yourself warned. Take it however you want to, but you better get it together, and I mean quick.
Silver, you are a dog! Why I stay invested in you when you can't break out of a 5% range to save your life at a time when you should be thriving baffles me. You've done nothing for me these last 3-4 months but tie up good money that could be spent on something else. You make me feel like a bagholder when I know that you're better than that.
Oh, what's that you say? The CME manipulates you, holding you down from your true market value?
ok, I'll give you that, but why can't you shed that baggage and show people what you really have?
I am about out of patience with you Silver and if you don't get your act together, you and I are just going to have to part ways, because the dead money that you are causing me to be subject to just aint gettin' it anymore. Silver, consider yourself warned. Take it however you want to, but you better get it together, and I mean quick.
To forgive is to free a prisoner, and to discover that prisoner was you.
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Knowledge is the enemy of fear
However, I will also say that be careful for what you wish for because you just might get it.
<< <i>I actually like it in the 30-35 range. It is giving me a chance to reload >>
However, if you have been at this game for 5 or 10 years....or longer even, then you surely will appreciate the performance that silver has put in thus far.
In my personal perspective, silver has been anything BUT a dog......but im not looking at it from the short term as you may be.
<< <i>I guess its all just a matter of perspective. If you started buying metals recently, I could understand your viewpoint. You have simply piled onto the bandwagon with a hope of quick and easy riches.
However, if you have been at this game for 5 or 10 years....or longer even, then you surely will appreciate the performance that silver has put in thus far.
In my personal perspective, silver has been anything BUT a dog......but im not looking at it from the short term as you may be. >>
I've been in the stock market for 25 years so I will say the same about equities.
Knowledge is the enemy of fear
I agree it gets tiresome holding our breath for a breakout, but nothing else feels as safe...
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lackluster trading.
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You're right, I wouldn't have, and I didn't. That's why I was a coin collector thru those years and even before. I accumulated some silver when I happen to come across a cool piece at a good price, but 90% of my "collecting" money was going towards CC Morgans and pre-1880 IHC's.
I admit that I did not have the patience for the stagnant waters with silver when CC Morgans were taking off during the time you mention. I'm wondering now if I should shift back to collecting (coins) with the $'s I've made having taken advantage of the silver run of the last 18 months. That's kind of what I meant in the original post in this thread in case it wasn't clear enough.
However, if you have been at this game for 5 or 10 years....or longer even, then you surely will appreciate the performance that silver has put in thus far
If someone were to come on here and kind of complain about numismatic performance as of late as I have about Silver, I would say the same to them about what I
own(ed) with coins.
I am starting to think there is actually more chance for opportunity with quality/key dates coin purchases going forward being that they've kind of (slightly) come down, than there is with Silver. Silver has had its run I feel while coins have been subject to that run to some degree.
What I mean by that is nice silver coins (although they are common dates) are being sold as 90% "junk". Key dates have not really been subject to this, that's why they are key dates...but they have been stagnant while silver has had this run. That's what makes me think people will start shifting back to building (or re-building) their coin collections now. Silver is going to remain stagnant (5% range fromlow $30's) while key date coins may start rising due to more demand from people like me getting bored with Silver.
If you notice, I don't even speak of Gold. Gold to me is even more dead money at this time, at a higher risk. Why anyone would be getting into Gold right now needs to have their head examined imo. Notice I said, "getting into"...not having been holding it for awhile.
And so here come da trolls, laying out their bait so they can reply to themselves with their multiple profiles. Oh well. have your say. This is not a matter of being right, it's a matter of opinion jackwad. Something you & your gang just can't accept...an opinion that differs with yours, right or wrong.
I heard the exact same sentiment when gold hit $800......then again when gold hit $1,000.....and again at $1200 gold.....and yet again at $1500 gold. When will people stop using statements like yours when talking about the price of gold? Probably never I suppose. Just human nature.
I'm building a nice kennel. I guess I just like dogs.
Seriously, if you gotta have that nice rush when you score a big gain in a short length of time, buy options or leverage your money into a nice high-risk vehicle. Anybody can do it. (Just make sure that you are right when you do.)
I knew it would happen.
In God We Trust.... all others pay in Gold and Silver!
others I overpaid for. I'm being more
careful as to what I buy and at what price.
But, in the longer run patience will pay off !!!
I would just assume to have silver drop so I can back the truck up.
<< <i>I would just assume to have silver drop so I can back the truck up. >>
I agree with you... Very much so...
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I'm having a hrd time understanding this approach. If one thinks that Silver is going up (to whatever anyone thinks it wil get to) in the long run, then what is the difference between buying at $31 or buying at $28, or what it is right at this very moment ($32.83)?
I know this is roughly 10% and everyone wants to have the affirmation of buying at (what they think is) the bottom, but if one thinks that the metal is headed for far grander numbers than it is seemingly locked into right now, what's the difference?
I heard the exact same sentiment when gold hit $800......then again when gold hit $1,000.....and again at $1200 gold.....and yet again at $1500 gold. When will people stop using statements like yours when talking about the price of gold? Probably never I suppose. Just human nature.
You would advise someone to enter into Gold right now...this would be their very first purchase of it? That's how I interpret what you're saying.
So with that said, and if you agree to that, then what does one think Gold will go to and by when? Gold obviously takes more investment to own less oz's. Convince me why I would ever buy Gold over Silver...keeping in mind that I currently think that Silver is a dog.
I know, it's what approach you're taking with it all right? Heard all that before.
So let's say I have a 3 year plan to hold some metals, starting today, because that's when you're advising someone to buy, not 10 years ago, today. Hindsight is a huge benefit. Are you trying to tell me that you are going to guarantee my Dollars invested into Gold by saying what happened the last 10 years is going to happen the next 10 just because what happened in the last 10 happened ?
I'm honestly not trying to argue, I'm wanting to try and understand the way of thinking that I just can't seem to grasp. Dont tell me about what happened and use that to try and convince me that to buy now. Tell me why I would start investing in either metal going from here forward.
My disclaimer to all this is that in a 3 year plan starting NOW (today is your first purchase), I think Gold would be a bad investment because the avg. person can't buy enough oz's to make it a significantly profitable investment and silver is stuck in the mud. You could buy enough, but the more you'd buy is just that much more dead money you'd be tied up in. Also, I am sepaking in terms of what the average person could do in this timeframe, not if you're well off and can do whatever you want with the money you'd be using to do this because it would really have no effect in your overall portfolio.
I'm having a hrd time understanding this approach. If one thinks that Silver is going up (to whatever anyone thinks it wil get to) in the long run, then what is the difference between buying at $31 or buying at $28, or what it is right at this very moment ($32.83)?
I know this is roughly 10% and everyone wants to have the affirmation of buying at (what they think is) the bottom, but if one thinks that the metal is headed for far grander numbers than it is seemingly locked into right now, what's the difference?
Simply: the cheaper an ounce, the more I can buy, driving down my average cost/ounce. PMs are basically a saving account for me to cash in 20 - 30 years from now.
That is my approach wheather people understand or not. Sorry.
Please read the whole post, thanks
As part of a balanced portfolio. And you could replace 'metal' with a variety of different vehicles.
In the last year, gold is up about 22%, as is AAPL. Silver is up 9%. Netflix is down, what 75%? RE is down year-over-year. If you have all of your investments in one asset or one asset class, you are asking for trouble. You may hit a grand slam one game, but end up striking out 200+ times over the length of the season.
Risk tolerance and investment window also play a big part.
There are so many things I love about silver. She has not had her day.
Keep on stacking!
Loves me some shiny!
<< <i>That is my approach wheather people understand or not. Sorry.
Please read the whole post, thanks >>
I did
ok, well I was talking about the next 3 years starting right now. Anyway, I wish you well with the approach that you choose to take.
Fetch, sit, roll over, stay, shake.
3 years is a long time to want a guarantee, especially when the currency is so ephemeral in nature.
The nature of money is becoming harder to characterize, and in the end it is all a confidence game. Problem is that the confidence game is being run by terribly corrupt crooks and politicians.
It's like the funding tricks they played for obamacare. You pay for the 10 years, but the benefits don't start for at least 4 years, and they like to pretend that the impact on the budget is minimal because the costs are spread out over 10 years.
Trust whatever you want. I don't trust the dollar. Not any more. It's not what it was, and neither is it's "guarantee".
I knew it would happen.
For me, I have a huge time horizon for my metal purchases, 30+ years. Hell, I'm still in my 20s. I buy a few hundred dollars every two weeks whether its on an uptick or downtick. In the end the price doesn't affect my purchases, I'd prefer to get more ozs for the money, but thats just me. I feel that silver is historically more expensive relative to gold. The metals have had a nice run over the past few years and as much as I hope it pulls back to the $15 area, it aint going to make a bit of difference to me if it does or doesnt.
Ive mentioned before that PMs act an inflation hedge and asset diversification for me. Just like any other assets class I have, I make my incremental purchases every two weeks and balance my portfolio a couple of times a year. If the metals are going to have a 'crash' such as a few decades ago, then I'd personally rather it happens while I have my few hundred oz of silver and 7 oz gold, than when I have much more. No doubt the fiat currencies of the world are troubled, but I don't think we are looking at an Argentina situation here, at least not in the near future. Troubled future, yes. Cataclysmic, no
As far as the current market actions, silver seems to be having some issues breaking through the $34 level of late. To that I agree with you. Shedding silver you bought at $8, $10, or $15 to lock in gains in the 200-400% range is NEVER a bad option. IF/when it pulls back, reestablish your position with more ozs than before. Even if silver goes up and establishes a multi decade baseline at $50, Id still be happy with my multi hundred percent gains and reentering when there is a clearer picture of what lies ahead. That may be the path of less risk.
A poster wrote a while back that he/she prefers the asset classes that have multiyear performance below the mean since all things tend to revert to the mean over time. The massive run up in silver since 2004ish is a huge jump above the mean of annual performance. I agree that silver may be overextended from its 10-15$ baseline of late, and that it is stalling at the $34 resistance level. Thats why I'm at about 1/3 silver right now. Its a bit lower than I want (between silver and gold), hence my recent purchases.
If my time horizon was shorter than 30 years, I might be singing a different tune. But for me even if silver drops back to $5, chances are that in the next 25 years there will be another run in silver to $40, $60, or $100/oz and ill still be happy I bought in at 30. Dollar cost averaging and portfolio balancing works for me with 80%, the core of my investments. The remaining 20%, my explore if you will, I play with and try to find that home run. That explore money is not in silver...
There are so many variables about when to get into metals or not. In my opinion, having some silver or gold over having none is a good option. Doesn't matter if its up, down or sideways, some is better than none. My opinions may and I'm sure do differ from yours in many places and from others opinions in some fashion, but if we all had the same opinion where PMs were going, this would be one boring @$$ forum...
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Please dont take offense, but you only write this as you have no concept of a bear market. Ask someone who in bought CSCO at $40 ten years ago.. He may tell you that in another 15 years it will be $100, but right now he is MISERABLE.
And if you do the calculations----you buy silver today at $33 and in 20 years it is $100, what was your rate of return? Would you be happy with that?
silver goes up and establishes a multi decade baseline at $50
What if it establishes a multi-decade base at $20? Heck that is still 300-400% higher than the base it established during the 80s-90s. And isnt unrealistic IMO.
Knowledge is the enemy of fear
I wish I had the patience that most of you seem to be blessed with. When it comes to pm's, I dont like holding any of it more than 3 months, not 3 decades. I prefer cash and always will.
I like the old pour JMC and Engelhard stuff to keep, but I'm finding myself getting bored of them even.
Guess it makes one wonder how the same guy can be with the same woman for almost 26 years now, but doesn't really want to hold any silver more than 3 months
None taken in the least. I started in stocks in '98-'99 when I was 16-17 and as such my 'game time' experience is still a small sample, 13 years, especially when compared others. This forum is a great example of that. I agree with the feeling that your "sure things" don't always pan out. There are a few positions in my portfolio I never cleared out as a strong reminder to myself as I move forward. CSCO, FNSR, and SAP are three that I know the pain of very well.
And if you do the calculations----you buy silver today at $33 and in 20 years it is $100, what was your rate of return? Would you be happy with that?
Again, that sure wouldn't make we want to stand up and cheer and shower myself with champagne. That being said, with the portfolio rebalancing and incremental purchases over time will make the portion of my PM asset purchased at $33 a very small percentage of my overall stack. That is one of the beauties of cost averaging and rebalancing. As the broader economy changes, ill change my overall weighting in PM (as well as other asset classes), but in general I look for that 15-20% range. If I bought in, all in, at a single point in time and never added to it again and i only got a 300% gain (not adjusted for inflation) in 20 years... That would suck. But thankfully thats not how I invest in metals.
But my personal goals with PMs are not to make a home run by any stretch. If the metals preform well in the future, I'll be selling more and more as they rise disproportionately to the rest of my portfolio. If they fall, i'll be adding more ounces at a better price, both in thanks to portfolio rebalancing. But my purpose to invest in PMs again is as an inflation hedge and diversification. If things go all Argentina on us, I have a few ounces of gold that can get me started in another country or help to reestablish a life here when things calm down. If not then I have protection that rebalancing gives me for inflationary periods.
Look at my bond performance right now v 2005 v 2002. I didn't shed that asset class in its entirety because it has a few crappy years, I rebalanced and let my strategy do it is job.
I understand that with metals, there is a substantial chance that there will be a realized loss over decades especially when you take inflation into account. But having the safely net of PMs if the SHTF and the hedge against inflation that they offer, it is a risk I'm willing to take. Much like my stocks. If we get a major crash in the equities markets and my metals take off, the rebalancing will do its job.
What if it establishes a multi-decade base at $20? Heck that is still 300-400% higher than the base it established during the 80s-90s. And isnt unrealistic IMO.
I agree wholeheartedly. In fact my assumption (and hope) is that it will return to the $15 range and stay there for a number of years. For me to have the opportunity to buy at the lower levels means I buy 2x the oz I do today. If it stay bound in the 10-15$ range, the rebalancing will to an effect take advantage of the movements as i would, by its nature, be selling more when its high, and buying more when its low. Is it perfect and covers me in all situations, of course not. But in my opinion it offer a person with my time horizon, an inflation hedge (which as a hedge is expected to underperform the remaining assets, in my case the other 80% percent of my core portfolio, but act an insurance policy for periods of inflation), and as a way for me to also have the SHTF second chance... It is a weighted decision where I feel the reward is worth the risk.
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<< <i>Guess it makes one wonder how the same guy can be with the same woman for almost 26 years now, but doesn't really want to hold any silver more than 3 months
Congrats on 26 years by the way! Im sure it has to do with the confidence you have in each...
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Just to get into your head a little, why would you be content to suffer a 50% decline in your investment and then wait for years to just get back to even?
Knowledge is the enemy of fear
Ive only been stacking for a short time period unlike most on this board, just a few years now. Since I still have a long time of stacking ahead of me, Id rather a drop now while my stack is small instead of after it grows in ounces by many fold. If it drops lower and stays, it would allow me to establish a strong base on the cheap, dropping my dollar cost averaging from its current ~$21/oz level. Don't get me wrong, if silver climbs and establishes a base at $200/oz over the next year or so, I'll be happy about my gains...
Im not looking for silver (or gold for that matter) to take me to an early retirement. If this portion of my investments take a while to get back to break even (ignoring the benefit of dollar cost averaging), then the other assets classes (i.e. equities, bonds, etc) in general would be performing well. (*Yes this is a broad generalization that is not always the case and I'm suuure this time is different*). I'd personally rather the other >80% does well and the <20% in metals underperforms. If I was 80% metals then my thoughts would of course be different.
If its the flip side of the coin and we get to a true economic meltdown where other asset classes drop 80% in value where my PMs get to where many hope (15:1 GSR and gold topping $3000) then my PMs would have done quite well.
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I am in no way trying to say that this is the best method, or the only method of using metals for investment and stacking PMs. Im not intending to push this on anyone, nor am I trying to knock down others thoughts if they differ from mine. It is the different thoughts and investing philosophies that I have come across on this board which has helped to me to bet a better perspective from the metal side, and its role in my investing.
Although I might disagree with some of the actions or philosophies that people have presented, I neither believe that they are necessarily wrong nor do I presume that I am correct. To discuss and openly try to understand the various philosophies and reasonings behind metal strategies is beneficial to gain perspective and knowledge in an area that I am always wanting to make better. As long as there is a common understanding that there are different reasonings, goals, time horizons, financial obligations, opinions on how bad the economy is, etc, between the people on this board, these discussions are generally helpful to add tools to our stacking toolboxes, and to disseminate and find different ideas.
If this is getting too off topic from the original post on our perspective and thoughts in the price action of silver over the near and intermediate time frame, I apologize. I am genuinely interested in the different philosophies, and reasonings behind those philosophies, that y'all have on the board... I am also open for any inquiries relating to the role that metals have in my investing philosophy and any weaknesses that may be present. By discussing those in an open forum, we can all benefit as long as we don't get engrained in our positions. Thankfully, we have not done that here.
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As long as paper and physical are intermingled, the price will always be manipulated big time. I believe the Fed can lend money to any of the bankers if they fall short to back up any silver paper losses. Fiat Silver Paper in a sense. We all know that there is not enough physical silver to back up the paper. This can go on for another 5-10 years, by then the Fed will be out of bullets and the true price of Silver will emerge. I don't expect $50-$100 Silver anytime soon. I sold some of my physical silver this year (Bought at $6-$9 Silver). The Fed wants to crush PMs.
Box of 20
Buying interesting bullion is a hobby for me along with coin collecting so if I enjoy doing it and have the money to do so I don't see what the big deal is.
I do know that I really don't need to buy any more silver as I have more than enough but will continue to stack unusual items for years to come.
So yes silver and to a lesser extent gold have become my savings account over the years and have done much better than a real savings account paying .010% interest.
Box of 20
Until we have that feeling of doom, I don't believe we will see that jump in the PMs. I also agree with pf70 that when its going to happen, it'll happen over a very short time period.
In the meantime, any rides on the silver roller coaster will be due to the "Big Boys" playing cards inside the Manipulation Casino... Just my opinion.
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If you invest $1,000 in anything (gold, silver, RE, cotton, etc.) and the price increases by 10%, you have a 10% gross profit. It doesn't matter if your unit of measure is oz, acre or bale.
The more you have of anything brings you the opportunity for a greater chance at success, or failing for that matter. The value of what it owned plays a part for sure, but the more you can have it determines the true weight of your involved risk.
<< <i>As you know Mark, I always respect your opinion, but I have to disagree with that.
The more you have of anything brings you the opportunity for a greater chance at success, or failing for that matter. The value of what it owned plays a part for sure, but the more you can have it determines the true weight of your involved risk. >>
This is absolutely false. All that matters......as far as "true weight of your involved risk"...... is size of the monetary investment, not the number of units within that investment.
Its very easy to disprove your theory Rich. Let me ask you this.......is it a better investment to own 1,000 troy ounces of .999 copper at 25c / ounce, or 8 ounces of silver at $32 /ounce?
According to your theory, the man with 1,000 oz of copper has a higher "weight of true involved risk" than the man with 8 oz of silver......even though both men have the same $250 invested.
As Wings correctly stated above, a 10% move is a 10% move no matter how many units of something you may have. Monetarily, as long as both investments had the exact same cash value to start, it does not matter at all how many units were involved.
An actual example for you to visualize:
Man "A" and man "B" both have $1700 to spend on an investment.
Man "A" buys 1oz of gold......Man "B" buys 53oz of silver.
Silver and gold each gain 7% in value. Both men cash out.
So which man made the "better" investment Rich?
That's incredibly easy to answer, the guy that bought the 53 oz..
Why? Because he has 53 chances to sell at a HIGHER profit than the guy who bought only ONE thing he can sell.
<< <i>So which man made the "better" investment Rich?
That's incredibly easy to answer, the guy that bought the 53 oz..
Why? Because he has 53 chances to sell at a HIGHER profit than the guy who bought only ONE thing he can sell. >>
You didnt read my scenario very well......the part where both men cashed out.
Ok, lets move this to another direction then. What is a better investment..........62 gold 1/2 gram bars for $1700 or 53 silver 1 ounce bars? For the purposes of discussion, lets ignore any and all premiums and take this on a spot price only basis.
So whats better? 62 of something with total value of $1700, or 53 of a different thing with total value of $1700?
I EAGERLY await your response!
The more I have of it, the more I can sell it off the way I want to if I choose to sell it off that way. If I have a lesser amount, I may have to sell off more than I want to to get to the $ amount I need at that time. I may not want to sell it all off. Having more of it affords me that luxury.
<< <i>If you think silver is a dog, then what is rhodium
At today's price...a bargain
<< <i>If you think silver is a dog, then what is rhodium
Silver is a dog, gold is a cat, platinum is a bat and rhodium is all that!
But I'm still hearing from the epople I talk with about this that it's still not low enough for anyone to be buying either lol. I had to call them a dog too (in fun) because their bark is louder than their bite.