OTC derivatives set new world record!
roadrunner
Posts: 28,303 ✭✭✭✭✭
June 2011 otc derivatives update
The most recent derivative's update shows an 18% increase in 6 months from late 2010 to summer 2011, an annualized rate >36%. That compares favorably with the 40-60% annual
increases seeing during the hip-hop growth years from 2004-2007. After reducing otc derivatives steadily for a few years by some $100 TRILL the TBTF banks have now gone and added all that back within 6 short months and then some, evidently learning nothing in the process. One has to give extra credit to Morgan Stanley who earlier this year added over $10 TRILL in less than a quarter all by themselves! ($14 TRILL in 6 months). Not being a bank holding company like GS and JPM they don't have to report in the same detail and scrutiny that the others do. Also remember that these "official" BIS/OOC numbers don't reflect the 40% overnight change instituted in 2008 by switching to a marked to maturity model. At the time of remodeling the total was at $1.14 QUAD. So today's reported number of $707 TRILL is effectively larger than that (ie $1.18 QUAD). Adjusting the current growth rate of 36% for the 2008 accounting change would be an effective 60% annual increase....on par with anything that was seen in the 2001-2007 period. Looks like it's getting close to the time to find another accounting standard and another 40% gross deduction. $100 TRILL in world liquidity in 6 months is a powerful tool.
roadrunner
The most recent derivative's update shows an 18% increase in 6 months from late 2010 to summer 2011, an annualized rate >36%. That compares favorably with the 40-60% annual
increases seeing during the hip-hop growth years from 2004-2007. After reducing otc derivatives steadily for a few years by some $100 TRILL the TBTF banks have now gone and added all that back within 6 short months and then some, evidently learning nothing in the process. One has to give extra credit to Morgan Stanley who earlier this year added over $10 TRILL in less than a quarter all by themselves! ($14 TRILL in 6 months). Not being a bank holding company like GS and JPM they don't have to report in the same detail and scrutiny that the others do. Also remember that these "official" BIS/OOC numbers don't reflect the 40% overnight change instituted in 2008 by switching to a marked to maturity model. At the time of remodeling the total was at $1.14 QUAD. So today's reported number of $707 TRILL is effectively larger than that (ie $1.18 QUAD). Adjusting the current growth rate of 36% for the 2008 accounting change would be an effective 60% annual increase....on par with anything that was seen in the 2001-2007 period. Looks like it's getting close to the time to find another accounting standard and another 40% gross deduction. $100 TRILL in world liquidity in 6 months is a powerful tool.
roadrunner
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Comments
Oh, I wouldn't necessarily say that they haven't learned anything. I think that they've learned that there are no consequences for the banks to do whatever suits their purposes. This way, they can afford to buy as many politicians as it takes.
I knew it would happen.
Box of 20
<< <i>No worries. The taxpayer will back up the casino losses. >>
The banks and govts are technically the "house," but they have ways to shift that ownership to the taxpayers. Guess you could say that the world is the "house."
The game has to end badly at some point. The whole debt/derivatives mess has to fully unwind before real recovery can take place. Whether it just implodes at some
point or is systematically taken down are the only options.
roadrunner
"Interest rates, the price of money, are the most important market. And, perversely, they’re the market that’s most manipulated by the Fed." - Doug Casey
How can anyone even keep score of this crap?
Good point. Even if I could see how the score is derived, who in the heck can tell us what it means?
Anyone feel like a serf, yet?
I knew it would happen.
<< <i>I've stopped worrying about stuff which I have no control over. >>
It will all get reset to zero anyway, sooner or later. It's the only fix possible.
"Interest rates, the price of money, are the most important market. And, perversely, they’re the market that’s most manipulated by the Fed." - Doug Casey
<< <i>
<< <i>I've stopped worrying about stuff which I have no control over. >>
It will all get reset to zero anyway, sooner or later. It's the only fix possible. >>
Exactly.
Knowledge is the enemy of fear
roadrunner
<< <i>Since I am not an accomplished economist, nor a mega-banker (TBTF).... but prone to diligent research on topics that interest or could impact me, it seems that at some point in the foreseeable future (meaning roughly within a decade - IMO), that some sort of drastic reckoning must occur. Be that a worldwide financial collapse, or mega-bank failures that are NOT bailed out, thus causing major domino failures in mega businesses and countries. This may be the conclusion of a rank amateur, unversed in the finer points of finance, so I would respectfully request the opinion of some of our resident experts here on the forum. Cheers, RickO >>
That's what everyone thought in the early nineties "The Great Deppression" was on our doorsteps. Dozens of books were written about it. Well here we are 2 decades later and still waiting. Hopefully they can keep kicking it down the road for another 2 decades because I certainly don't want to be around when the shi# hits the fan.
It depends on what metrics one uses to define a great depression. The current financial credit/debt crisis certainly has items comparable or worse than the 1930's. Long term
economic cycles are in the process of winding down and won't bottom for another 2-5 years. Try as govts might to kick that can down the road, the 120 yr cycle end will continue
to exert its influences. From an exterior view a depression scenario today won't look the same as the 1930's just like the 1770's didn't look like the 1890's. However, if the govt's
suddenly stopped giving handouts I think things could start to look more like the 1930's.
roadrunner
In honor of the memory of Cpl. Michael E. Thompson
<< <i>That's what everyone thought in the early nineties "The Great Deppression" was on our doorsteps. Dozens of books were written about it. Well here we are 2 decades later and still waiting. Hopefully they can keep kicking it down the road for another 2 decades because I certainly don't want to be around when the shi# hits the fan.
It depends on what metrics one uses to define a great depression. The current financial credit/debt crisis certainly has items comparable or worse than the 1930's. Long term
economic cycles are in the process of winding down and won't bottom for another 2-5 years. Try as govts might to kick that can down the road, the 120 yr cycle end will continue
to exert its influences. From an exterior view a depression scenario today won't look the same as the 1930's just like the 1770's didn't look like the 1890's. However, if the govt's
suddenly stopped giving handouts I think things could start to look more like the 1930's.
roadrunner >>
The mental images and actual photos of people standing in bread lines in the 30's unfortunately defines what most people see as a "depression". But the truth is, there are over 45 million Americans currently on government food stamps. The "breadlines" are back.....just in a less conspicuous manner.
Sign being carried by one brave enough to be out there making a stand: "You have the right to remain silent, but I strongly advise against it."
The only argument against capitalism over the years has been one of greed and corruption. Appears to the suprise of many, including myself, it was a valid argument. Question now is do we allow it to destroy capitalism as its opponents have long argued it will do, or do we make a stand and destroy the greed and corruption. This is why I support those carrying the signs, regardless of how misguided or "used" they may appear to be.
"Interest rates, the price of money, are the most important market. And, perversely, they’re the market that’s most manipulated by the Fed." - Doug Casey
Excellent observation.
Many would be surprised at the percentages of those foodstamp and other welfare recipients who
have wall to wall carpeting, color televisions (with cable/satellite and video game consoles), air conditioning, microwave ovens, home computers, automobiles, cellular telephones, and haven't missed a meal in years, if ever.
"this ain't your grandaddy's depression"
Liberty: Parent of Science & Industry
<< <i>The mental images and actual photos of people standing in bread lines in the 30's unfortunately defines what most people see as a "depression". But the truth is, there are over 45 million Americans currently on government food stamps. The "breadlines" are back.....just in a less conspicuous manner.
Many would be surprised at the percentages of those foodstamp and other welfare recipients who
have wall to wall carpeting, color televisions (with cable/satellite and video game consoles), air conditioning, microwave ovens, home computers, automobiles, cellular telephones, and haven't missed a meal in years, if ever.
"this ain't your grandaddy's depression" >>
All the time we bail out TBTF banks and said CEO's get millions in bonus's
I just dunno who or what PO's me more! No, the TBTF BS does!
<< <i>Rob Kirby explains the bond-interest rate contract game at the start of this article
roadrunner >>
Not at all to disparage your wonderful service in providing such links, RR. But the mind-boggling complexity and jargon endemic to any discussion about this catastrophic historical rip-off makes it just impossible to get your head around it.
I have a Ph.D. But I read that article moving my lips, reading it aloud, reading the same sentence again and again, all the while biting my hand to keep my eyes from gazing over. Nothing helped.
It may be enough emotionally to know that the investment banks have run wild, far beyond the needs of the global economy to make investment money available. It may be enough to know that governments have been reduced to just fending off a catastophe that is too massive for the mortals in charge to contemplate.
Yet, one wishes for a way to understand what is happening and what all the complex jargon means. I may not like knowing that a meteor x by y is hurtling toward the earth, will split the planet in two, and will be here in 63 days. But there's something to be said for knowing the nature of your fate, and having the existential possibility of either devising an evasion, or making peace with it.
In this case, we have a situation where people in charge talk about trifles (Cain's affairs) or bits and pieces (the Fed gave more money to the investment banks than was disclosed under TARP), and where the people giving the news or on the street seem largely unaware. We have people milling about with an unspecified but conviced sense that things are seriously out of control (Tea Party, Occupy Wall Street, Americans Elect). But articles like this demonstrate how elusive this crisis really is--and how the perpetrators have succeeded in making the language so obscure as to evade our understanding, even when it's disclosed!
Here's a warning parable for coin collectors...
Look at the stock market 1000 point gains (10%) and losses in one week. Is this a precedent for the DOW?
Box of 20
Ahhh, that's soo soothing! <plunges hands into bags of gold, holds up handfuls of metal, lets coins cascade from fingers, clinking musically back into bags> ahhhhh better!
Liberty: Parent of Science & Industry
If there really are 1 quadrillion in derivatives and they all blew up at the same time, then my guess is we wouldnt even know it. Not that the end of the world would have come, but rather that this is such a ridiculous number all parties involved would just tear up all the contracts and call a do-over.
If these contracts default just a few at a time, then people would take notice and it would create more of a problem. in any event, I doubt silver would go to 1000 or even 200 as the doomsayers would want to believe.
Knowledge is the enemy of fear
it is aiming at the $100+ mark.
With just AIG, Lehman and Bear Stearns going down in 2008 ("controlled" chaos) we saw an unwinding of some $30 TRILL or so in derivatives, most of those CDS or MBS types.
That was less than 3% of the total worldwide and we certainly knew about it via the panic in the financial markets in fall of 2008. Something tells me that the next occurrence won't be a
non-event, especially if just one large bank or a couple of smaller entities go down w/o a bailout. With a bailout someone has to come up with the hundreds of billions or trillions to
pay off the winners. The only other option is a complete takeover of those entities by another party with a huge derivative's position. Yeah, the entire otc derivative's system could be
declared null and void tomorrow by congressional decree. But considering that 95% of these are held by our 5 biggest banks I don't think that banksters, FED and Treasury would allow
congress to do such a thing. And if they headed in that direction, the banksters would short the main markets and make then bleed until congress eventually gave in. First step to get rid
of the otc derivatives scam is to break up the 5 or 6 biggest banks using anti-trust and monopoly laws. I don't see any sign of that on the horizon.
roadrunner
Everyone needs to cheer up!
In God We Trust.... all others pay in Gold and Silver!
QE to infinity!!!! My question is, does this guarantee inflation and thus the soaring of Pm"s? Like Gold to 4,500 or even 10,000 an oz? And then when gold hits 4,500 an oz do you think the local B&M will buy all you have? Or, would you have to sell to Apmex? Finally, could you barter your gold and purchase a house?
<< <i>Like Gold to 4,500 or even 10,000 an oz? >>
At first it's hard to believe such lofty price targets (which seem to be more prevalent every new year now). But then again we only need to understand where this gold market has gone (or more conservatively, "it's ability to preserve wealth"):
Nov 30, 2001: $275.50/oz
Nov 30, 2011: $1746/oz
if the trend continues, anyone's guess perhaps, it's pretty easy to do the math for Nov 30, 2021. $1746 seemed like nonsense ten years ago for many I'm sure. --aap
<< <i>My question is, does this guarantee inflation and thus the soaring of Pm"s? >>
this guy thinks so, and he's usually right about the future of gold
"Interest rates, the price of money, are the most important market. And, perversely, they’re the market that’s most manipulated by the Fed." - Doug Casey
I have not written much about the recent failure of a major clearing house out of respect for my friends who are caught in that situation.
A clearing house of note is the mechanism of the marketplace without which trading simply does not occur. This is a situation where "Too Vital to Fail” trumps “Too Big to Fail."
You want to know why the Fed organized the do nothing European leaders in concerted action along with China? The answer is no major clearing house can be allowed to fail
because then the market mechanism is broken.
The reason that sovereign debt cannot fail is the five largest US banks hold trillions of dollars of credit default swap OTC derivatives guaranteeing that garbage against failure.
If euro debt fails, the Western financial world implodes, so it will not now.
The local B&M was happy to buy all we had at gold >$1,000/oz after completing a quadruple from $252/oz. I don't see any difference if the price completes a double or triple
from here. The B&M (or Apmex) will still buy as there will still be customers for it. Either that or the B&M can offer uncompetitive rates and stop doing business. Houses were
under intense demand in 2004-2007 as their prices peaked. Gold will also be under intense demand when its price eventually peaks. It's the day after you have to be worried about.
roadrunner
<< <i>I'm trying to picture who is the "house" in this double or nothing betting? I really can not grasp the derivatives game??? >>
Nobody can really. It's a shell game. A smart young banker or a computer simply invents
a new way to risk someone else's money. If he miscalculates and drives the bank out of
business than the taxpayer takes the hit.
Think of it as playing hot potato with lit dynamite. As fuses burn lower more instruments are
invented to cushion the blow in case it goes off in your hand. All the time they are using the
saver's dollar at near zero percent interest and loaning it to ten others at usurious rates with
the full approval of the FED and Congress.
It doesn't even matter if the whole system implodes because they already have their own well
stocked islands to wait out the fiasco they created in order to make more billions without pro-
ducing any wealth at all.
to cushion the blow after it blows up. If a bank takes a trillion dollar loss they add a new
derivative that gives them a trillion dollar gain. All the while the complexity grows and we
need a computer just to tell us when we can't keep the stores stocked any longer. We won't
even know when the panic hits. One day the bonds will just suddenly be reported at zero and
it won't be a computer glitch.
We can't even have a decent panic any longer. It will all just end.
Gee, the panics are so much fun with the parades of talking heads and suits and their ubercool graphics. For us on the ground, it all seems the same. Maybe when we have a few bank holidays and the 401K's and IRA's are finally ground down into worthless paper then we will have some good panic. Maybe when we see banksters on the 6 PM news sitting on the curb with their personal office items in a cardboard box waiting for their ride, ala Enron, and we can see the panic on their faces and fear in their eyes, then we can have our fear and loathing. Until then, SSDD.
Are you a terorist? Do you own a gun? Do you have an opinion? Do you hold PM's? You may be defined as a terrorist.
NDAA
opinion and the most dangerous opinion to hold is to side with the founding
fathers.
Look at history. This is the way marches to totalitarianism start. They take
away rights one at a time until none are left. Most rights now are civil rights
rather than individual rights. But even "national security" will trump civil rights.
<< <i>I really can not grasp the derivatives game??? >>
Imagine you and I standing on a New York city street corner placing bets on whether each jaywalker makes it across. The catch is, not only do we get to use other people's money, but we can bet up to 50 times the amount of money they have. The kicker - they don't know we are betting with their money. And, if we both figure out a way to loose it all, we'll get reinbursed (bailed out) by taking more from them when they pay their income taxes.
Keep in mind, if I lose a $100 bet with you, I probably have a $1000 bet in the other direction with another party who is also not aware of my bet with you. I've even got bets that pay off much more if you fail to pay.
The problem with derivatives is they are the unlimited product of corrupt, greedy thieves who have unlimited funds in one pocket and corrupt, greedy lawmakers in the other pocket.
"Interest rates, the price of money, are the most important market. And, perversely, they’re the market that’s most manipulated by the Fed." - Doug Casey
that covers him from a fire. He's hoping that the coverage will never have to be paid out and that his house will surive for years to come. Then those 50 bankers have all bet
(with other people's money) that your house will indeed burn down someday. So there you have 50 bankers each tossing 1 gallon of gasoline on your home while the homeowner
has 1 gallon of water total to ward them off. Who do you think wins? And should that house be slow to catch fire, the bankers can leverage up even further and toss more gasoline
at the problem. Eventually, the fumes alone will ignite a fire and allow for a bankster payoff.
roadrunner
This could be ttt'd every day and still be true.
I knew it would happen.