<< <i>Derry, gdxj was about $120 in Nov 2011, not 26. >>
My bad on the date, that was a terrible call. But I do like it's current price.
"Interest rates, the price of money, are the most important market. And, perversely, they’re the market that’s most manipulated by the Fed." - Doug Casey
<< <i>"derry...don't know about your c/b..it needs to be cremated. Hope no one took your advise. << Friday November 04, 2011 11:41 AM "now is a good time to convert stocks to PM's. If the stocks are not PM mining stocks you should also consider converting to the miners. If the stocks are mining stocks, hold them. ETF GDXJ is a good paper play on the junior miners." Sadly, this is one of the worst prognostications/calls/predictions/recommendations ever made on these boards! >>
Physical gold is actually up since my 11/4 call. A GDXJ drop from sub $26 on 11/4 to it's current $22.89 is the worst call you have ever seen on these boards. I stand by my preference for GDXJ to play the miners and I continue to buy it on the dips. While it hasn't done it in the past six weeks, it will prove to be one of the best plays on paper gold. Six weeks is nothing in my scheme of things. Anyone trying to catch the very top of equities is doing so at the risk of missing the bargains in metals. Odds are that when that top hits it will disappear faster than most can react. >>
Derry, with all due respect....your call referenced above was on Nov 4, 2011 not this year 2014! Gold was about $1750 then and it missed the hugh run up in equities since that time. I admire your conviction and passion, always have. But as OPA has pointed out it was a very very bad call/ recomendation.
Successful trades/buys/sells with gdavis70, adriana, wondercoin, Weiss, nibanny, IrishMike, commoncents05, pf70collector, kyleknap, barefootjuan, coindeuce, WhiteTornado, Nefprollc, ajw, JamesM, PCcoins, slinc, coindudeonebay,beernuts, and many more
<< <i>"derry...don't know about your c/b..it needs to be cremated. Hope no one took your advise. << Friday November 04, 2011 11:41 AM "now is a good time to convert stocks to PM's. If the stocks are not PM mining stocks you should also consider converting to the miners. If the stocks are mining stocks, hold them. ETF GDXJ is a good paper play on the junior miners." Sadly, this is one of the worst prognostications/calls/predictions/recommendations ever made on these boards! >>
Physical gold is actually up since my 11/4 call. A GDXJ drop from sub $26 on 11/4 to it's current $22.89 is the worst call you have ever seen on these boards. I stand by my preference for GDXJ to play the miners and I continue to buy it on the dips. While it hasn't done it in the past six weeks, it will prove to be one of the best plays on paper gold. Six weeks is nothing in my scheme of things. Anyone trying to catch the very top of equities is doing so at the risk of missing the bargains in metals. Odds are that when that top hits it will disappear faster than most can react. >>
Derry, with all due respect....your call referenced above was on Nov 4, 2011 not this year 2014! Gold was about $1750 then and it missed the hugh run up in equities since that time. I admire your conviction and passion, always have. But as OPA has pointed out it was a very very bad call/ recomendation. >>
corrected the error. Not like it was my first one.
Buy rubles.
"Interest rates, the price of money, are the most important market. And, perversely, they’re the market that’s most manipulated by the Fed." - Doug Casey
"corrected the error. Not like it was my first one. "
Don't feel alone.....I ( and most people) have made many many bad calls/predictions! Your thoughts/opinions are always of interest to me and I suspect others. Best!
Successful trades/buys/sells with gdavis70, adriana, wondercoin, Weiss, nibanny, IrishMike, commoncents05, pf70collector, kyleknap, barefootjuan, coindeuce, WhiteTornado, Nefprollc, ajw, JamesM, PCcoins, slinc, coindudeonebay,beernuts, and many more
<< <i>Derry, gdxj was about $120 in Nov 2011, not 26. >>
Derry has this right.
GDXJ had a 1 for 4 inverse split on June 28, 2013. It's price in Nov 2011 probably was around $26. Van Eck probably never would have allowed GDXJ to get to $120. Before $100 they probably would have done a 2-1 or 3-1 split. The prices you see today back in 2011 for miner or PM ETF's that have conducted splits are pure fiction. The split prices do give you a means to judge performance over that period.
The guy who suggested to go long PM's in 2011....well.....don't quit your day job.
There's no context to this statement. Gold started 2011 at $1416, hit a low of $1308, peaked at $1921, dropped 3X into the low $1500's and rebounded three times above $1790 by Sept 2012. Clearly, there were several excellent opportunities to buy gold in 2011: Jan, Feb, March, April, May, June, late Sept, and late December. The only really bad times to have bought gold in 2011 were the parabolic 7 weeks from July to early September. If you bought bought at any other time you still to Sept 2012 to leave w/o harm. If you bought gold in early 2011 at $1310-$1330 you had until July 2014 to get out at a profit or even. Context is everything. Anyone who suggested going long in gold in January-March 2011 was a genius. Very few saw that kind of move coming. In 2009, most around here never saw gold going much above $1,200-$1,300. 5 years later they are finally "right." Analyst Larry Edelson was the poster child for that campaign. In mid-2011 he was certain that gold would fall back to $1200-$1250. It then went from $1477 to $1920. He was proven "correct" though....only 3 years later....only with a move of +$400/oz followed by -$700/oz.
Yes roadrunner, gdxj did have a 1 for 4 reverse split in July 2013. So if we discount the pre split price then we must also discount the post split price. today's price would be $5.75, not $23.
<< <i>Derry, gdxj was about $120 in Nov 2011, not 26. >>
Derry has this right.
GDXJ had a 1 for 4 inverse split on June 28, 2013. It's price in Nov 2011 probably was around $26. Van Eck probably never would have allowed GDXJ to get to $120. Before $100 they probably would have done a 2-1 or 3-1 split. The prices you see today back in 2011 for miner or PM ETF's that have conducted splits are pure fiction. The split prices do give you a means to judge performance over that period.
The guy who suggested to go long PM's in 2011....well.....don't quit your day job.
There's no context to this statement. Gold started 2011 at $1416, hit a low of $1308, peaked at $1921, dropped 3X into the low $1500's and rebounded three times above $1790 by Sept 2012. Clearly, there were several excellent opportunities to buy gold in 2011: Jan, Feb, March, April, May, June, late Sept, and late December. The only really bad times to have bought gold in 2011 were the parabolic 7 weeks from July to early September. If you bought bought at any other time you still to Sept 2012 to leave w/o harm. If you bought gold in early 2011 at $1310-$1330 you had until July 2014 to get out at a profit or even. Context is everything. Anyone who suggested going long in gold in January-March 2011 was a genius. Very few saw that kind of move coming. In 2009, most around here never saw gold going much above $1,200-$1,300. 5 years later they are finally "right." Analyst Larry Edelson was the poster child for that campaign. In mid-2011 he was certain that gold would fall back to $1200-$1250. It then went from $1477 to $1920. He was proven "correct" though....only 3 years later....only with a move of +$400/oz followed by -$700/oz. >>
What a bunch of "double talking hogwash"... Reminds me of a politician or lawyer. Gold price as of 11/4/2011 ..around $1745 Dow Ind. around .. 12,000
"If it walks like a duck , smells like a duck" etc
"Bongo drive 1984 Lincoln that looks like old coin dug from ground."
On predictions, a lot of us make them. often wrong, I just try to avoid digging a hole.
On that note, speaking of stocks, I really began to think it might be a scrooge market this holiday, but apparently I was wrong, Santa looks like he has come after all. Sometimes it's good to be wrong
If you're a longterm precious metals investor, you look pretty good when metals are up, and you don't look like the sharpest tool in the shed when metals are down. The same thing applies to stocks.
There are a lot more people vested in stocks, so one must assume that there are more people involved in trying to keep stock market prices rising, or at least hoping that they keep rising.
Either way, it's better to save and invest than it is to spend everything on today's stuff with no regard for the future. Most working stiffs know this. Why can't Congress and the Executive Branch learn this simple concept? Are they %#@!*%$# idiots?
Oh, never mind.
Q: Are You Printing Money? Bernanke: Not Literally
<< <i>Yes roadrunner, gdxj did have a 1 for 4 reverse split in July 2013. So if we discount the pre split price then we must also discount the post split price. today's price would be $5.75, not $23.
But you already knew that. >>
I sure did. My only point is that people are quoting numbers that never existed on any trading floor at any time in history. NUGT at $2,000+? No such animal.
Facts are fact. Everything after that is just opinion. One man's hogwash are the other guy's facts. That usually results when the facts are ignored. The fact remains that the Sept 2011-March 2013 gold market was a tremendous trading opportunity for both gold bulls and gold bears with half a dozen major swings to play. And that was much easier to play than the 9 days or so in 2013-2014 where gold was crushed for $100-$250 in just a couple of days. Stocks are coming into the last year or so of their 4 yr run vs. gold. The 2016-2020 will be much different and will shock the stock market faithful to the core. Gold haters will become stock haters. It will be a sight to behold. Time and cycles change.
The only fact that counts is that gold and silver have outperformed the stock market indexes since 2000, dividends or otherwise. 14 years and counting. An inconvenient truth that must turn OPA's face beet red anytime he sees it. Stocks up 50%.....gold, silver, gold miners, silver miners up 4X to 5X. And this will extend to 18-20 years before there's much chance of even changing it. And we won't even mention that for 12 years the out-performance was far greater (7X to 12X). Calling it hogwash or politician's blather doesn't change it one bit. OPA's opus: Gold price as of 11/4/2011 ..around $1745....Dow Ind. around .. 12,000 .....your point is well taken....a stock market that gained nothing over 11 years. Who the heck hung on that for that entire period? These days everyone is talking about how much money they made in stocks the past couple of years. Funny, no one was saying back in 2011 that they were dead flat in their stocks since 2000 and couldn't wait to hang on for another 11 years. Fwiw, by 2022, I wouldn't be surprised if the SM was back to 1998-2000 levels again. That would truly suck. But, nothing in today's FED-induced world surprises me.
<< <i> Facts are fact. Everything after that is just opinion. Stocks are coming into the last year or so of their 4 yr run vs. gold. The 2016-2020 will be much different and will shock the stock market faithful to the core. Gold haters will become stock haters. It will be a sight to behold. . >>
Thank you for your opinion about the future, it is noted.
<< <i> The only fact that counts is that gold and silver have outperformed the stock market indexes since 2000, dividends or otherwise. 14 years and counting. . >>
Why is that time frame, from a high poin of stock prices and low price of metals "the only fact that counts"? Why not 2011, 1994, 1988, 1979, or 1972, or 1933 for that matter?
<< <i>....a stock market that gained nothing over 11 years. Who the heck hung on that for that entire period? . >>
A lot of people, more than you would ever suspect, apparently, just keep on dollar cost averaging into stocks throughout their careers via 401ks and IRAs
<< <i>These days everyone is talking about how much money they made in stocks the past couple of years. . >>
<< <i> The only fact that counts is that gold and silver have outperformed the stock market indexes since 2000, dividends or otherwise. 14 years and counting. . >>
Why is that time frame, from a high point of stock prices and low price of metals "the only fact that counts"? Why not 2011, 1994, 1988, 1979, or 1972, or 1933 for that matter?
It's very simple. OPA only cares to compare stocks vs. gold from the gold peaks in 2011/2012. So why not a longer period based on a stock's peak? I wanted to highlight their obvious recency bias.
<< <i>....a stock market that gained nothing over 11 years. Who the heck hung on that for that entire period?
A lot of people, more than you would ever suspect, apparently, just keep on dollar cost averaging into stocks throughout their careers via 401ks and IRAs >>
Oh, I've always suspected the number is considerable....just not as high as most think. Half the people in my family have very heavy stock holdings that they've been building for years. This is no surprise. What doesn't surprise is that only the "gains" of the past couple of years are discussed....not any of the losses during 2000-2011. I know there are many losses in there from the crashes into 2002-2003, 2009-2009, and 2011. It's human nature to forget those losses and only brag about the fresh winners put on in the last year or two. It is frustrating that they don't report the entire picture from the past 15 years but that's part of human nature. Bragging about today's winners tends to soften the blow of all the losers dumped during the extremes of those crash episodes. For those like yourself that can manage this better than the other 90%, my hat is off to you.
I think that more people than you think do not pay as much attention to the day to day and year to couple year swings in value as much as the overall value growth, over decades, compared to alternatives, or to not investing at all.
I said on page 1 that I loves me some gold and have quite a bit of it, certainly relative to the "average" investor. But I bought most of that gold with stock and real estate gains that took decades to grow, in addition to income from earnings from working hard, and tried to maintain balance, patience, optimism and fortitude throughout the market swings and build positions in at least 5 major asset classes, for just the reasons that you discribe.. distributing risk and reward parameters.
And when I was a youngster, I read and listened to conversations of old men like take place on this forum, and tried to learn some wisdom from all, so RR not being argumentative, just making some comments, and keeping the conversation going. What would be the fun if someone posted something and Everyone just said, "yup!"
edit: and if you can't brag a little when you made a good call, what's the point?
"Interest rates, the price of money, are the most important market. And, perversely, they’re the market that’s most manipulated by the Fed." - Doug Casey
What doesn't surprise is that only the "gains" of the past couple of years are discussed....not any of the losses during 2000-2011
Kinda like how those who bought silver in 2006 only talk about how much they are up from those levels and not down from the 2011 high.
The STOCK guys were STACKING from 2000-2011 and are now reaping the benefits, just as those who are stacking PMs today hope to be doing in 2022.
Just buy assets when they are a relative value to each other. PMs were a relative value to stocks in 2000 and stocks were a relative value to PMs in 2011. This isnt rocket science. It isnt contrived in manipulation or conspiracy theory. Its just a simple strategy that anyone can employ without fear of "them" or "they".
<< <i>Just buy assets when they are a relative value to each other. PMs were a relative value to stocks in 2000 and stocks were a relative value to PMs in 2011. This isnt rocket science. It isnt contrived in manipulation or conspiracy theory. Its just a simple strategy that anyone can employ without fear of "them" or "they". >>
While not rocket science, since at least 2008 it involves more than a simple strategy of understanding fundamentals. It now requires an understanding of much more poorly regulated market "influence" from the big players and the policy makers they control. JPM's token $59 billion in fines (with zero prosecutions) exemplifies the market "influence" and control. Not much different than politics.
"Interest rates, the price of money, are the most important market. And, perversely, they’re the market that’s most manipulated by the Fed." - Doug Casey
A lot of people, more than you would ever suspect, apparently, just keep on dollar cost averaging into stocks throughout their careers via 401ks and IRAs >>
Oh, I've always suspected the number is considerable....just not as high as most think. Half the people in my family have very heavy stock holdings that they've been building for years. This is no surprise. What doesn't surprise is that only the "gains" of the past couple of years are discussed....not any of the losses during 2000-2011. I know there are many losses in there from the crashes into 2002-2003, 2009-2009, and 2011. It's human nature to forget those losses and only brag about the fresh winners put on in the last year or two. It is frustrating that they don't report the entire picture from the past 15 years but that's part of human nature. Bragging about today's winners tends to soften the blow of all the losers dumped during the extremes of those crash episodes. For those like yourself that can manage this better than the other 90%, my hat is off to you. >>
Two market crashes in the last 15 years ruined a number of stock holders, but I would say all of the stock holders, who I know closely, have done very well holding and reallocating through that period. Even though I was gritting my teeth and pulling out some hair ;~, looking back at the crashes, that is where I made the most return overtime....buy a wide margin. I know a number lost, because the very real and understandable fear drove them to make poor decisions. Most fear based decisions in my humble experience are poor ones.
"If you can keep your head when all about you are losing theirs" Kipling
<< <i><I've found that the best way to protect myself from all Risks is to wrap myself in bubble wrap, and sit perfectly still, alone, in a locked room all day and night.>
<< <i>What doesn't surprise is that only the "gains" of the past couple of years are discussed....not any of the losses during 2000-2011
Kinda like how those who bought silver in 2006 only talk about how much they are up from those levels and not down from the 2011 high.
The STOCK guys were STACKING from 2000-2011 and are now reaping the benefits, just as those who are stacking PMs today hope to be doing in 2022.
Just buy assets when they are a relative value to each other. PMs were a relative value to stocks in 2000 and stocks were a relative value to PMs in 2011. This isnt rocket science. It isnt contrived in manipulation or conspiracy theory. Its just a simple strategy that anyone can employ without fear of "them" or "they". >>
Now you can join in and discuss how much stocks are down since the 2015 high.
And a 40% gain in stocks from 2000 isn't exactly something to crow about....assuming you didn't get decimated in either the 2000-2003, 2008-2009 or 2011 downturns....which I think most people out there did, and sold out at various points as bottoms approached. Who knows then they got back in, if ever. No one around here discusses the losses that occurred in stocks from 2000-2003, 2007-2009, and now 2015-XXXX. They just didn't happen and no one lost any money by getting out at the wrong time. Only PM buyers buy the tops and sell the lows. Stock traders always buy bottoms and sell tops. Right?
Cohodk has this "thing" against silver. It's quite irrational. You can put a stick up the butt of the silver market at any point in history and it stinks. But try that with the stock market at any time in the past 15 years, and all you get is the smell of roses...lol. I can only surmise it is because he missed out on the silver 10 bagger and was called out numerous times from Oct 2009 - 2012 on how wrong he got the PM markets. He was finally proven correct on gold though at his top calling in Fall of 2009 was finally reached in summer 2015....nearly 6 years later. Great call!!. You saw it coming, and "we were warned,"....in 2009. And his revisionist history of 2006 silver is interesting too. Silver spent no more than a few hours above the recent low (14.37) seen in 2015. It's median price in 2006 was about $12.00 ($8's were the low). Yet he would have you believe we're back to 2006 levels again. Not really. And gold peaked at $730 in 2006. Lots more work to do to get back there. Don't pick on gold because it's story is not as "bad" as silver.
I applaud yet another fine effort to discredit a massive 12 bagger bull market and then highlight a 15 year - 40% gain in the Dow. Well done. Oh, and how come no one here was warned about the stock market crash that was brewing? A discussion for another day I guess. That stick still smells like rose buds despite the past week's declining actions. The short end of that stick.....
Even in 1929 they had air conditioning. I don't know why that cracks me up....maybe cuz I have air conditioned seats in my truck? Greatest inventon ever...axx conditioning! ! Yeah gsafan, why isn't gold higher?
<< <i>In 1929-1933 they called that a BIG BARFABOO.
And to try and fix the big barf, they had to increase the value of gold by 69%. >>
Funny thing is even with a 69% revaluation of gold, it still couldn't keep up with the 100% gain of the stock market that year. >>
Darn, are you that clueless? You couldn't own physical gold in 1933-1936 unless you were a collector....and most people didn't bother or didn't know that. It essentially was no longer an investment for the working class....relegated to a $100 emergency store of value. But you COULD own and trade US gold stocks. Homestake Mining was one of the biggest and best. Gold miners were probably the biggest winners in that 4 year rally. They went up 3X to 6X as I recall. They out-performed the stock market. Investors couldn't own physical gold....so they wanted to own gold miners. Makes sense to me. Gold couldn't keep up with the stock market in 1933 or 1933-1936? Uh huh. The fact that you even bring that up shows your ignorance of that period. You don't even know the history in your own markets! Very sad.
Who cares about a 100% gain in stocks in 1933-1934? They fell nearly 90% from 1929-1933. It would take a 10 bagger to get back to even. You frequently harp on this point...but not here....lol! It took stocks 25 years to get back to even. But go ahead and harp on the +100% in 1933 if that "fits" your agenda. Homestake Mining put in a 10 bagger from 1926-1936. Don't mention that though. Hey look....a gold miner performing during 4 years of inflation and then 6 years of deflation. Some pundit here said that doesn't happen....lol. Since you really couldn't own gold as a true investment due to FDR's GRA of 1934, then miners became the effective "gold substitute."
Well, if you couldn't own gold then why bother with such nonsense? You should have just bought stocks anyway. Oh, yeah, the market doubled again a few years later.
Are you that clueless to not recognize this. Did you forget it took 25+ years for gold to get back to even from 1980-2005? Who cares about a 12 bagger in silver if it lost 70 in the next 4 years, or that it lost 90% after 1980. Lol, you are becoming quite well practiced in projectionism.
All assets classes over ones lifetime will have similar returns. PMs will have their day again. Hopefully that will turn your frown upside-down.
BTW---you know that 10 bagger that one needed to get back to even? Well, it happened. Then it happened again. And now it's at bag #6 on its way to do it again.
Comments
<< <i>Derry, gdxj was about $120 in Nov 2011, not 26. >>
My bad on the date, that was a terrible call. But I do like it's current price.
"Interest rates, the price of money, are the most important market. And, perversely, they’re the market that’s most manipulated by the Fed." - Doug Casey
<< <i>
<< <i>"derry...don't know about your c/b..it needs to be cremated. Hope no one took your advise.
<< Friday November 04, 2011 11:41 AM "now is a good time to convert stocks to PM's. If the stocks are not PM mining stocks you should also consider converting to the miners. If the stocks are mining stocks, hold them. ETF GDXJ is a good paper play on the junior miners."
Sadly, this is one of the worst prognostications/calls/predictions/recommendations ever made on these boards!
Physical gold is actually up since my 11/4 call. A GDXJ drop from sub $26 on 11/4 to it's current $22.89 is the worst call you have ever seen on these boards.
I stand by my preference for GDXJ to play the miners and I continue to buy it on the dips. While it hasn't done it in the past six weeks, it will prove to be one of the best plays on paper gold. Six weeks is nothing in my scheme of things. Anyone trying to catch the very top of equities is doing so at the risk of missing the bargains in metals. Odds are that when that top hits it will disappear faster than most can react. >>
Derry, with all due respect....your call referenced above was on Nov 4, 2011 not this year 2014! Gold was about $1750 then and it missed the hugh run up in equities since that time. I admire your conviction and passion, always have. But as OPA has pointed out it was a very very bad call/ recomendation.
<< <i>
<< <i>
<< <i>"derry...don't know about your c/b..it needs to be cremated. Hope no one took your advise.
<< Friday November 04, 2011 11:41 AM "now is a good time to convert stocks to PM's. If the stocks are not PM mining stocks you should also consider converting to the miners. If the stocks are mining stocks, hold them. ETF GDXJ is a good paper play on the junior miners."
Sadly, this is one of the worst prognostications/calls/predictions/recommendations ever made on these boards!
Physical gold is actually up since my 11/4 call. A GDXJ drop from sub $26 on 11/4 to it's current $22.89 is the worst call you have ever seen on these boards.
I stand by my preference for GDXJ to play the miners and I continue to buy it on the dips. While it hasn't done it in the past six weeks, it will prove to be one of the best plays on paper gold. Six weeks is nothing in my scheme of things. Anyone trying to catch the very top of equities is doing so at the risk of missing the bargains in metals. Odds are that when that top hits it will disappear faster than most can react. >>
Derry, with all due respect....your call referenced above was on Nov 4, 2011 not this year 2014! Gold was about $1750 then and it missed the hugh run up in equities since that time. I admire your conviction and passion, always have. But as OPA has pointed out it was a very very bad call/ recomendation. >>
corrected the error. Not like it was my first one.
Buy rubles.
"Interest rates, the price of money, are the most important market. And, perversely, they’re the market that’s most manipulated by the Fed." - Doug Casey
Don't feel alone.....I ( and most people) have made many many bad calls/predictions!
Your thoughts/opinions are always of interest to me and I suspect others.
Best!
<< <i>Derry, gdxj was about $120 in Nov 2011, not 26. >>
Derry has this right.
GDXJ had a 1 for 4 inverse split on June 28, 2013. It's price in Nov 2011 probably was around $26. Van Eck probably never would have allowed GDXJ to get to $120. Before $100 they probably would have done a 2-1 or 3-1 split. The prices you see today back in 2011 for miner or PM ETF's that have conducted splits are pure fiction. The split prices do give you a means to judge performance over that period.
The guy who suggested to go long PM's in 2011....well.....don't quit your day job.
There's no context to this statement. Gold started 2011 at $1416, hit a low of $1308, peaked at $1921, dropped 3X into the low $1500's and rebounded three times above $1790 by Sept 2012. Clearly, there were several excellent opportunities to buy gold in 2011: Jan, Feb, March, April, May, June, late Sept, and late December. The only really bad times to have bought gold in 2011 were the parabolic 7 weeks from July to early September. If you bought bought at any other time you still to Sept 2012 to leave w/o harm. If you bought gold in early 2011 at $1310-$1330 you had until July 2014 to get out at a profit or even. Context is everything. Anyone who suggested going long in gold in January-March 2011 was a genius. Very few saw that kind of move coming. In 2009, most around here never saw gold going much above $1,200-$1,300. 5 years later they are finally "right." Analyst Larry Edelson was the poster child for that campaign. In mid-2011 he was certain that gold would fall back to $1200-$1250. It then went from $1477 to $1920. He was proven "correct" though....only 3 years later....only with a move of +$400/oz followed by -$700/oz.
But you already knew that.
Knowledge is the enemy of fear
<< <i>
<< <i>Derry, gdxj was about $120 in Nov 2011, not 26. >>
Derry has this right.
GDXJ had a 1 for 4 inverse split on June 28, 2013. It's price in Nov 2011 probably was around $26. Van Eck probably never would have allowed GDXJ to get to $120. Before $100 they probably would have done a 2-1 or 3-1 split. The prices you see today back in 2011 for miner or PM ETF's that have conducted splits are pure fiction. The split prices do give you a means to judge performance over that period.
The guy who suggested to go long PM's in 2011....well.....don't quit your day job.
There's no context to this statement. Gold started 2011 at $1416, hit a low of $1308, peaked at $1921, dropped 3X into the low $1500's and rebounded three times above $1790 by Sept 2012. Clearly, there were several excellent opportunities to buy gold in 2011: Jan, Feb, March, April, May, June, late Sept, and late December. The only really bad times to have bought gold in 2011 were the parabolic 7 weeks from July to early September. If you bought bought at any other time you still to Sept 2012 to leave w/o harm. If you bought gold in early 2011 at $1310-$1330 you had until July 2014 to get out at a profit or even. Context is everything. Anyone who suggested going long in gold in January-March 2011 was a genius. Very few saw that kind of move coming. In 2009, most around here never saw gold going much above $1,200-$1,300. 5 years later they are finally "right." Analyst Larry Edelson was the poster child for that campaign. In mid-2011 he was certain that gold would fall back to $1200-$1250. It then went from $1477 to $1920. He was proven "correct" though....only 3 years later....only with a move of +$400/oz followed by -$700/oz.
What a bunch of "double talking hogwash"... Reminds me of a politician or lawyer.
Gold price as of 11/4/2011 ..around $1745
Dow Ind. around .. 12,000
"If it walks like a duck , smells like a duck" etc
On that note, speaking of stocks, I really began to think it might be a scrooge market this holiday, but apparently I was wrong, Santa looks like he has come after all.
Sometimes it's good to be wrong
There are a lot more people vested in stocks, so one must assume that there are more people involved in trying to keep stock market prices rising, or at least hoping that they keep rising.
Either way, it's better to save and invest than it is to spend everything on today's stuff with no regard for the future. Most working stiffs know this. Why can't Congress and the Executive Branch learn this simple concept? Are they %#@!*%$# idiots?
Oh, never mind.
I knew it would happen.
"Making predictions is hard, especially about the future."
coincidence? I think not! discuss..
Liberty: Parent of Science & Industry
<< <i>Yes roadrunner, gdxj did have a 1 for 4 reverse split in July 2013. So if we discount the pre split price then we must also discount the post split price. today's price would be $5.75, not $23.
But you already knew that. >>
I sure did. My only point is that people are quoting numbers that never existed on any trading floor at any time in history. NUGT at $2,000+? No such animal.
Facts are fact. Everything after that is just opinion. One man's hogwash are the other guy's facts. That usually results when the facts are ignored. The fact remains that the Sept 2011-March 2013 gold market was a tremendous trading opportunity for both gold bulls and gold bears with half a dozen major swings to play. And that was much easier to play than the 9 days or so in 2013-2014 where gold was crushed for $100-$250 in just a couple of days. Stocks are coming into the last year or so of their 4 yr run vs. gold. The 2016-2020 will be much different and will shock the stock market faithful to the core. Gold haters will become stock haters. It will be a sight to behold. Time and cycles change.
The only fact that counts is that gold and silver have outperformed the stock market indexes since 2000, dividends or otherwise. 14 years and counting. An inconvenient truth that must turn OPA's face beet red anytime he sees it. Stocks up 50%.....gold, silver, gold miners, silver miners up 4X to 5X. And this will extend to 18-20 years before there's much chance of even changing it. And we won't even mention that for 12 years the out-performance was far greater (7X to 12X). Calling it hogwash or politician's blather doesn't change it one bit. OPA's opus: Gold price as of 11/4/2011 ..around $1745....Dow Ind. around .. 12,000 .....your point is well taken....a stock market that gained nothing over 11 years. Who the heck hung on that for that entire period? These days everyone is talking about how much money they made in stocks the past couple of years. Funny, no one was saying back in 2011 that they were dead flat in their stocks since 2000 and couldn't wait to hang on for another 11 years. Fwiw, by 2022, I wouldn't be surprised if the SM was back to 1998-2000 levels again. That would truly suck. But, nothing in today's FED-induced world surprises me.
<< <i> Facts are fact. Everything after that is just opinion. Stocks are coming into the last year or so of their 4 yr run vs. gold. The 2016-2020 will be much different and will shock the stock market faithful to the core. Gold haters will become stock haters. It will be a sight to behold. . >>
Thank you for your opinion about the future, it is noted.
<< <i> The only fact that counts is that gold and silver have outperformed the stock market indexes since 2000, dividends or otherwise. 14 years and counting. . >>
Why is that time frame, from a high poin of stock prices and low price of metals "the only fact that counts"? Why not 2011, 1994, 1988, 1979, or 1972, or 1933 for that matter?
<< <i>....a stock market that gained nothing over 11 years. Who the heck hung on that for that entire period? . >>
A lot of people, more than you would ever suspect, apparently, just keep on dollar cost averaging into stocks throughout their careers via 401ks and IRAs
<< <i>These days everyone is talking about how much money they made in stocks the past couple of years. . >>
That must be very frustrating
Liberty: Parent of Science & Industry
<< <i> The only fact that counts is that gold and silver have outperformed the stock market indexes since 2000, dividends or otherwise. 14 years and counting. . >>
Why is that time frame, from a high point of stock prices and low price of metals "the only fact that counts"? Why not 2011, 1994, 1988, 1979, or 1972, or 1933 for that matter?
It's very simple. OPA only cares to compare stocks vs. gold from the gold peaks in 2011/2012. So why not a longer period based on a stock's peak? I wanted to highlight their obvious recency bias.
<< <i>....a stock market that gained nothing over 11 years. Who the heck hung on that for that entire period?
A lot of people, more than you would ever suspect, apparently, just keep on dollar cost averaging into stocks throughout their careers via 401ks and IRAs >>
Oh, I've always suspected the number is considerable....just not as high as most think. Half the people in my family have very heavy stock holdings that they've been building for years. This is no surprise. What doesn't surprise is that only the "gains" of the past couple of years are discussed....not any of the losses during 2000-2011. I know there are many losses in there from the crashes into 2002-2003, 2009-2009, and 2011. It's human nature to forget those losses and only brag about the fresh winners put on in the last year or two. It is frustrating that they don't report the entire picture from the past 15 years but that's part of human nature. Bragging about today's winners tends to soften the blow of all the losers dumped during the extremes of those crash episodes. For those like yourself that can manage this better than the other 90%, my hat is off to you.
or to not investing at all.
I said on page 1 that I loves me some gold and have quite a bit of it, certainly relative to the "average" investor.
But I bought most of that gold with stock and real estate gains that took decades to grow, in addition to income from earnings from working hard, and tried to maintain balance, patience, optimism and fortitude throughout the market swings and build positions in at least 5 major asset classes, for just the reasons that you discribe.. distributing risk and reward parameters.
And when I was a youngster, I read and listened to conversations of old men like take place on this forum, and tried to learn some wisdom from all, so RR not being argumentative, just making some comments, and keeping the conversation going. What would be the fun if someone posted something and Everyone just said, "yup!"
edit: and if you can't brag a little when you made a good call, what's the point?
Liberty: Parent of Science & Industry
"Interest rates, the price of money, are the most important market. And, perversely, they’re the market that’s most manipulated by the Fed." - Doug Casey
Kinda like how those who bought silver in 2006 only talk about how much they are up from those levels and not down from the 2011 high.
The STOCK guys were STACKING from 2000-2011 and are now reaping the benefits, just as those who are stacking PMs today hope to be doing in 2022.
Just buy assets when they are a relative value to each other. PMs were a relative value to stocks in 2000 and stocks were a relative value to PMs in 2011. This isnt rocket science. It isnt contrived in manipulation or conspiracy theory. Its just a simple strategy that anyone can employ without fear of "them" or "they".
Knowledge is the enemy of fear
<< <i>Yup >>
I thinks its "Yuuuup".
Knowledge is the enemy of fear
<< <i>Just buy assets when they are a relative value to each other. PMs were a relative value to stocks in 2000 and stocks were a relative value to PMs in 2011. This isnt rocket science. It isnt contrived in manipulation or conspiracy theory. Its just a simple strategy that anyone can employ without fear of "them" or "they". >>
While not rocket science, since at least 2008 it involves more than a simple strategy of understanding fundamentals. It now requires an understanding of much more poorly regulated market "influence" from the big players and the policy makers they control. JPM's token $59 billion in fines (with zero prosecutions) exemplifies the market "influence" and control. Not much different than politics.
"Interest rates, the price of money, are the most important market. And, perversely, they’re the market that’s most manipulated by the Fed." - Doug Casey
<< <i>
A lot of people, more than you would ever suspect, apparently, just keep on dollar cost averaging into stocks throughout their careers via 401ks and IRAs >>
Oh, I've always suspected the number is considerable....just not as high as most think. Half the people in my family have very heavy stock holdings that they've been building for years. This is no surprise. What doesn't surprise is that only the "gains" of the past couple of years are discussed....not any of the losses during 2000-2011. I know there are many losses in there from the crashes into 2002-2003, 2009-2009, and 2011. It's human nature to forget those losses and only brag about the fresh winners put on in the last year or two. It is frustrating that they don't report the entire picture from the past 15 years but that's part of human nature. Bragging about today's winners tends to soften the blow of all the losers dumped during the extremes of those crash episodes. For those like yourself that can manage this better than the other 90%, my hat is off to you. >>
Two market crashes in the last 15 years ruined a number of stock holders, but I would say all of the stock holders, who I know closely, have done very well holding and reallocating through that period. Even though I was gritting my teeth and pulling out some hair ;~, looking back at the crashes, that is where I made the most return overtime....buy a wide margin. I know a number lost, because the very real and understandable fear drove them to make poor decisions. Most fear based decisions in my humble experience are poor ones.
"If you can keep your head when all about you are losing theirs" Kipling
<< <i><I've found that the best way to protect myself from all Risks is to wrap myself in bubble wrap, and sit perfectly still, alone, in a locked room all day and night.>
I've never been able to make that work for me. >>
Me either
Liberty: Parent of Science & Industry
<< <i>What doesn't surprise is that only the "gains" of the past couple of years are discussed....not any of the losses during 2000-2011
Kinda like how those who bought silver in 2006 only talk about how much they are up from those levels and not down from the 2011 high.
The STOCK guys were STACKING from 2000-2011 and are now reaping the benefits, just as those who are stacking PMs today hope to be doing in 2022.
Just buy assets when they are a relative value to each other. PMs were a relative value to stocks in 2000 and stocks were a relative value to PMs in 2011. This isnt rocket science. It isnt contrived in manipulation or conspiracy theory. Its just a simple strategy that anyone can employ without fear of "them" or "they". >>
Now you can join in and discuss how much stocks are down since the 2015 high.
And a 40% gain in stocks from 2000 isn't exactly something to crow about....assuming you didn't get decimated in either the 2000-2003, 2008-2009 or 2011 downturns....which I think most people out there did, and sold out at various points as bottoms approached. Who knows then they got back in, if ever. No one around here discusses the losses that occurred in stocks from 2000-2003, 2007-2009, and now 2015-XXXX. They just didn't happen and no one lost any money by getting out at the wrong time. Only PM buyers buy the tops and sell the lows. Stock traders always buy bottoms and sell tops. Right?
Cohodk has this "thing" against silver. It's quite irrational. You can put a stick up the butt of the silver market at any point in history and it stinks. But try that with the stock market at any time in the past 15 years, and all you get is the smell of roses...lol. I can only surmise it is because he missed out on the silver 10 bagger and was called out numerous times from Oct 2009 - 2012 on how wrong he got the PM markets. He was finally proven correct on gold though at his top calling in Fall of 2009 was finally reached in summer 2015....nearly 6 years later. Great call!!. You saw it coming, and "we were warned,"....in 2009. And his revisionist history of 2006 silver is interesting too. Silver spent no more than a few hours above the recent low (14.37) seen in 2015. It's median price in 2006 was about $12.00 ($8's were the low). Yet he would have you believe we're back to 2006 levels again. Not really. And gold peaked at $730 in 2006. Lots more work to do to get back there. Don't pick on gold because it's story is not as "bad" as silver.
I applaud yet another fine effort to discredit a massive 12 bagger bull market and then highlight a 15 year - 40% gain in the Dow. Well done. Oh, and how come no one here was warned about the stock market crash that was brewing? A discussion for another day I guess. That stick still smells like rose buds despite the past week's declining actions. The short end of that stick.....
No sell no sell. It come back. Happy happy joy joy.
Knowledge is the enemy of fear
<< <i>Boo!!!! >>
Today was a BARF....not a BOO.
<< <i>
<< <i>Boo!!!! >>
Today was a BARF....not a BOO. >>
What would you call a 4 year, 65% decline?
Knowledge is the enemy of fear
And to try and fix the big barf, they had to increase the value of gold by 69%.
Even in 1929 they had air conditioning. I don't know why that cracks me up....maybe cuz I have air conditioned seats in my truck? Greatest inventon ever...axx conditioning! ! Yeah gsafan, why isn't gold higher?
Knowledge is the enemy of fear
<< <i>In 1929-1933 they called that a BIG BARFABOO.
And to try and fix the big barf, they had to increase the value of gold by 69%. >>
Funny thing is even with a 69% revaluation of gold, it still couldn't keep up with the 100% gain of the stock market that year.
Knowledge is the enemy of fear
<< <i>
<< <i>In 1929-1933 they called that a BIG BARFABOO.
And to try and fix the big barf, they had to increase the value of gold by 69%. >>
Funny thing is even with a 69% revaluation of gold, it still couldn't keep up with the 100% gain of the stock market that year. >>
Darn, are you that clueless? You couldn't own physical gold in 1933-1936 unless you were a collector....and most people didn't bother or didn't know that. It essentially was no longer an investment for the working class....relegated to a $100 emergency store of value. But you COULD own and trade US gold stocks. Homestake Mining was one of the biggest and best. Gold miners were probably the biggest winners in that 4 year rally. They went up 3X to 6X as I recall. They out-performed the stock market. Investors couldn't own physical gold....so they wanted to own gold miners. Makes sense to me. Gold couldn't keep up with the stock market in 1933 or 1933-1936? Uh huh. The fact that you even bring that up shows your ignorance of that period. You don't even know the history in your own markets! Very sad.
Who cares about a 100% gain in stocks in 1933-1934? They fell nearly 90% from 1929-1933. It would take a 10 bagger to get back to even. You frequently harp on this point...but not here....lol! It took stocks 25 years to get back to even. But go ahead and harp on the +100% in 1933 if that "fits" your agenda. Homestake Mining put in a 10 bagger from 1926-1936. Don't mention that though. Hey look....a gold miner performing during 4 years of inflation and then 6 years of deflation. Some pundit here said that doesn't happen....lol. Since you really couldn't own gold as a true investment due to FDR's GRA of 1934, then miners became the effective "gold substitute."
1930's bear
Are you that clueless to not recognize this. Did you forget it took 25+ years for gold to get back to even from 1980-2005? Who cares about a 12 bagger in silver if it lost 70 in the next 4 years, or that it lost 90% after 1980. Lol, you are becoming quite well practiced in projectionism.
All assets classes over ones lifetime will have similar returns. PMs will have their day again. Hopefully that will turn your frown upside-down.
BTW---you know that 10 bagger that one needed to get back to even? Well, it happened. Then it happened again. And now it's at bag #6 on its way to do it again.
Stocks reward innovation, intelligence, hard work, perserverance, commitment, fortitude. Gold rewards, ummm, ummm.....patience?
Knowledge is the enemy of fear
<< <i>POO >>
Keep practicing. B-O-O. You got this.
Knowledge is the enemy of fear
Stocks & physical are seperate in my mind~KISS