<< <i>The indices are largely made up of huge multi-national corporations that sell more product in foreign countries than in the USA. A rising dollar would hurt income, not "puff it up".
Don't they conduct overseas business in local currencies, and don't they all have currency hedging operations to keep from losing money due to currency fluctuations?
If a rising dollar hurts such income, that only exascerbates the tax shortfall problem, which further adds to the debt creation bubble. And as we know, there are no cuts in spending - only "reductions" in the rate of increased spending. >>
Yes they do business in local currency and they do hedge, but nothing can be hedged 100% and hedging comes with a price. Read the earnings reports of any big company and you will see earnings have been restrained by a rising dollar.
Yes, money earned in foreign countries is largely held in those countries and not taxed until brought in the US. AAPL is a great example. This does not exacerbate the tax problem as this has always been the case.
I wrote about a month ago that I was out of the market and posted a graph of the nasdaq explaining why. Its up another 7% since. Oh well. Did I miss a little fun? Maybe. Do I sleep well? You better believe it. That said, I think the market is overbought, but may not be overvalued.
That said, I think the market is overbought, but may not be overvalued
certain specific assets like high quality coins, houses, or stocks can be both overvalued and a bargain. by owning more than one asset class, one can be happy about something no matter what the markets do. personally, I'm starting to trim stock positions just a little, and will be buying some more coins in the near future. standing pat on real estate for now but hope to sell some coins and stocks both, in a few years, to pick up a cabin on a lake. How does a cabin on a lake compare to stocks vs physical gold, for those who have tried them?
How does a cabin on a lake compare to stocks vs physical gold, for those who have tried them?
Its horrible. The peace, serenity and solitude is deafening. The sunsets blinding. The sounds of birds chirping in the morning will cause you to vomit. And the water, well lets just say there's a reason why humans have feet and lungs instead of fins and gills.
How does a cabin on a lake compare to stocks vs physical gold, for those who have tried them?
In 1980 we bought a cabin on a lake with proceeds from our sales of gold sovereigns and forward contracts. I must warn you - it is possible to fall asleep on a rubber raft listening to the water lap at the sides of the raft at 3:30 in the afternoon and wake up on the other side of the lake at 4:30.
My advice, just do it.
Q: Are You Printing Money? Bernanke: Not Literally
That chart is about right for a 2 year time frame and the assets shown. Glad I didn't get into GDXJ like I was considering, but that doesn't mean it won't be a good choice for speculation at some point.
Q: Are You Printing Money? Bernanke: Not Literally
<< <i>That chart is about right for a 2 year time frame and the assets shown. Glad I didn't get into GDXJ like I was considering, but that doesn't mean it won't be a good choice for speculation at some point. >>
GDXJ is probably one of the best current plays in gold if one believes gold will continue upward.
Stocks look to have a big up day today with the very positive jobs and unemployment report.
The data is so positive, I am surprised that it has not caused metals to rise. Up until some point in 2011 metals were in a perfect position. Interest rates and thus carrying costs were very low. Future inflation expectations were high. Perfect, and metals responded.
Then, the thinking changed to the idea that the economy would stay sluggish and inflation tame much longer than expected. That is the thinking now. This is the worst scenario for metals.
The surprise scenario would be the economy and inflation picking up more quickly than expected. We will see.
One Gold Buffalo Reverse Proof $1740 (2 month wait for delivery ) vs. 211 shares JCP at $8.25 (same day delivery last month, except only on paper) It's an experiment.
What will either be worth ? One may not exist. The other always will. Neither put food on the table. That takes a hunter with a hawk eye.
Funny thing is when the red line was way above the blue line a few years ago people were saying how beautiful the chart was and to continue buying the red line.
I think im finally getting thru to you derryb.
We may now be seeing some relative value in PMs and related equities.
<< <i>My opinion to buy low was formed a very long time ago. >>
So you're the one who originally thought up that bit of wisdom! Maybe you can help us with this toughie then: when should one sell? >>
When your partner cohodk tells you to. >>
Thats an insult to Baley. I believe he is probably more intelligent than both of us combined and more than capable of formulating original thoughts and ideas. In fact I'm not sure if I have ever seen him regurgitate a blog or other newsletter admiring another's thoughts.
Derryb, you are on record in these threads posting and promoting opinion to buy silver in the $40. Some people warned of relative pricing only to be scorned and ridiculed. It would be very easy for me to detail the values of some "all-in" trades, but you already know.
Fact is fact. Lots of good and well meaning folk have been crushed financially listening to fear mongering and ill-informed, uneducated hyperbole. Denial is a very deep river in this forum.
Baley let me offer a quick counterpoint, there are many people over the last 50 years that have lost a huge portion of their life savings investing long term (10 plus years) in the stock market and that just doesn't happen with PM's. I understand it has worked out well for you and many others buying and trading stocks on a weekly basis but it's just not for everyone.
Successful coin BST transactions with Gerard and segoja.
Successful card BST transactions with cbcnow, brogurt, gstarling, Bravesfan 007, and rajah 424.
Buy good companies instead? I'm seeing great value in silver miners. The ones that I researched have cash costs around $5 per oz. Gold miners have cash costs approaching $1000. I love ABX because of their reserves but still looks pricey to me. I decided to buy a silver miner yesterday. I'll re-evaluate mid next year and see if I want to add some gold miners.
References: Too many to list. PM for details. 100% satisfaction both as buyer and seller. As a seller, I ship promptly and keep buyers updated.
<< <i>Alright, ringing the bell and cashing out some GDXJ, has been a good run chart
>>
I have been a promoter here of GDXJ for quite a while now. I agree, take the money and run. It will provide the same opportunity again later, but once again at a cheaper price.
bailey... You get to keep your crystal ball, again. (make me a copy)
<< <i> Friday November 04, 2011 7:56 AM by kuch: "Some believe another round of QE is just around the corner. Gold prices will rise and stock prices will rise. I wonder when it will be time to sell stocks and put everything into physical gold/silver? Who's got that crystal ball?" >>
respond from bailey:
<< <i> Friday November 04, 2011 9:29 AM "Saying "stocks" is like saying "metals" (or even "commodities") There are specific stocks that that will probably outperform gold and silver by a wide margin over the next couple of years. I do not think it is now or ever time to "sell stocks and put everything into physical gold/silver" but instead, to diversify among asset classes" >>
<< <i>Friday November 04, 2011 9:59 AM " Such a crystal ball does not exist...but Baley's advice is sound. Cheers, RickO" >>
derry...don't know about your c/b..it needs to be cremated. Hope no one took your advise.
<< <i> Friday November 04, 2011 11:41 AM "now is a good time to convert stocks to PM's. If the stocks are not PM mining stocks you should also consider converting to the miners. If the stocks are mining stocks, hold them. ETF GDXJ is a good paper play on the junior miners." >>
"Bongo drive 1984 Lincoln that looks like old coin dug from ground."
<< <i>bailey... You get to keep your crystal ball, again. (make me a copy)
<< <i> Friday November 04, 2011 7:56 AM by kuch: "Some believe another round of QE is just around the corner. Gold prices will rise and stock prices will rise. I wonder when it will be time to sell stocks and put everything into physical gold/silver? Who's got that crystal ball?" >>
respond from bailey:
<< <i> Friday November 04, 2011 9:29 AM "Saying "stocks" is like saying "metals" (or even "commodities") There are specific stocks that ithat will probably outperform gold and silver by a wide margin over the next couple of years. I do not think it is now or ever time to "sell stocks and put everything into physical gold/silver" but instead, to diversify among asset classes" >>
<< <i>Friday November 04, 2011 9:59 AM " Such a crystal ball does not exist...but Baley's advice is sound. Cheers, RickO" >>
derry...don't know about your c/b..it needs to be cremated. Hope no one took your advise.
<< <i> Friday November 04, 2011 11:41 AM "now is a good time to convert stocks to PM's. If the stocks are not PM mining stocks you should also consider converting to the miners. If the stocks are mining stocks, hold them. ETF GDXJ is a good paper play on the junior miners." >>
>>
The guy who suggested to go long PM's in 2011....well.....don't quit your day job.
<< <i>bailey... You get to keep your crystal ball, again. (make me a copy)
<< <i> Friday November 04, 2011 7:56 AM by kuch: "Some believe another round of QE is just around the corner. Gold prices will rise and stock prices will rise. I wonder when it will be time to sell stocks and put everything into physical gold/silver? Who's got that crystal ball?" >>
respond from bailey:
<< <i> Friday November 04, 2011 9:29 AM "Saying "stocks" is like saying "metals" (or even "commodities") There are specific stocks that ithat will probably outperform gold and silver by a wide margin over the next couple of years. I do not think it is now or ever time to "sell stocks and put everything into physical gold/silver" but instead, to diversify among asset classes" >>
<< <i>Friday November 04, 2011 9:59 AM " Such a crystal ball does not exist...but Baley's advice is sound. Cheers, RickO" >>
derry...don't know about your c/b..it needs to be cremated. Hope no one took your advise.
<< <i> Friday November 04, 2011 11:41 AM "now is a good time to convert stocks to PM's. If the stocks are not PM mining stocks you should also consider converting to the miners. If the stocks are mining stocks, hold them. ETF GDXJ is a good paper play on the junior miners." >>
>>
The guy who suggested to go long PM's in 2011....well.....don't quit your day job. >>
I wouldn't really call 3 years "long". Just my look on it. What about the people who said "go long in the SM" in 2005/2006 when the economy was cranking, everybody was spending money, the housing market was booming, etc? Do you think the crash in 2008/2009 was good for those "longers" just 3 short years after?
@ Elite CNC Routing & Woodworks on Facebook. Check out my work. Too many positive BST transactions with too many members to list.
"derry...don't know about your c/b..it needs to be cremated. Hope no one took your advise.
<< Friday November 04, 2011 11:41 AM "now is a good time to convert stocks to PM's. If the stocks are not PM mining stocks you should also consider converting to the miners. If the stocks are mining stocks, hold them. ETF GDXJ is a good paper play on the junior miners."
Sadly, this is one of the worst prognostications/calls/predictions/recommendations ever made on these boards!
Successful trades/buys/sells with gdavis70, adriana, wondercoin, Weiss, nibanny, IrishMike, commoncents05, pf70collector, kyleknap, barefootjuan, coindeuce, WhiteTornado, Nefprollc, ajw, JamesM, PCcoins, slinc, coindudeonebay,beernuts, and many more
It could be a hell of a lot better if it's said right about now
I still do not think it is time to go "all in" in any one asset class, but I've been selling stocks and buying gold to rebalance and will be doing more of it after the new year.
<< <i>"derry...don't know about your c/b..it needs to be cremated. Hope no one took your advise. << Friday November 04, 2011 11:41 AM "now is a good time to convert stocks to PM's. If the stocks are not PM mining stocks you should also consider converting to the miners. If the stocks are mining stocks, hold them. ETF GDXJ is a good paper play on the junior miners." Sadly, this is one of the worst prognostications/calls/predictions/recommendations ever made on these boards! >>
Comments
<< <i>The indices are largely made up of huge multi-national corporations that sell more product in foreign countries than in the USA. A rising dollar would hurt income, not "puff it up".
Don't they conduct overseas business in local currencies, and don't they all have currency hedging operations to keep from losing money due to currency fluctuations?
If a rising dollar hurts such income, that only exascerbates the tax shortfall problem, which further adds to the debt creation bubble. And as we know, there are no cuts in spending - only "reductions" in the rate of increased spending. >>
Yes they do business in local currency and they do hedge, but nothing can be hedged 100% and hedging comes with a price. Read the earnings reports of any big company and you will see earnings have been restrained by a rising dollar.
Yes, money earned in foreign countries is largely held in those countries and not taxed until brought in the US. AAPL is a great example. This does not exacerbate the tax problem as this has always been the case.
I wrote about a month ago that I was out of the market and posted a graph of the nasdaq explaining why. Its up another 7% since. Oh well. Did I miss a little fun? Maybe. Do I sleep well? You better believe it.
Knowledge is the enemy of fear
certain specific assets like high quality coins, houses, or stocks can be both overvalued and a bargain. by owning more than one asset class, one can be happy about something no matter what the markets do. personally, I'm starting to trim stock positions just a little, and will be buying some more coins in the near future. standing pat on real estate for now but hope to sell some coins and stocks both, in a few years, to pick up a cabin on a lake. How does a cabin on a lake compare to stocks vs physical gold, for those who have tried them?
Liberty: Parent of Science & Industry
Its horrible. The peace, serenity and solitude is deafening. The sunsets blinding. The sounds of birds chirping in the morning will cause you to vomit. And the water, well lets just say there's a reason why humans have feet and lungs instead of fins and gills.
Knowledge is the enemy of fear
In 1980 we bought a cabin on a lake with proceeds from our sales of gold sovereigns and forward contracts. I must warn you - it is possible to fall asleep on a rubber raft listening to the water lap at the sides of the raft at 3:30 in the afternoon and wake up on the other side of the lake at 4:30.
My advice, just do it.
I knew it would happen.
Liberty: Parent of Science & Industry
Liberty: Parent of Science & Industry
I knew it would happen.
<< <i>That chart is about right for a 2 year time frame and the assets shown. Glad I didn't get into GDXJ like I was considering, but that doesn't mean it won't be a good choice for speculation at some point. >>
GDXJ is probably one of the best current plays in gold if one believes gold will continue upward.
Give Me Liberty or Give Me Debt
And what if one believes that gold will probably perform flat at best, and could even continue on down in the future?
Liberty: Parent of Science & Industry
updated chart
Liberty: Parent of Science & Industry
<< <i>GDXJ is probably one of the best current plays in gold if one believes gold will continue upward
And what if one believes that gold will probably perform flat at best, and could even continue on down in the future? >>
DGLD
Give Me Liberty or Give Me Debt
<< <i>GDXJ is probably one of the best current plays in gold if one believes gold will continue upward
And what if one believes that gold will probably perform flat at best, and could even continue on down in the future? >>
In this case loans to the banks via savings accounts or CDs would be justified.
Knowledge is the enemy of fear
<< <i>
<< <i>GDXJ is probably one of the best current plays in gold if one believes gold will continue upward
And what if one believes that gold will probably perform flat at best, and could even continue on down in the future? >>
DGLD >>
That was quick +
good call derryb
Liberty: Parent of Science & Industry
<< <i>
<< <i>
<< <i>GDXJ is probably one of the best current plays in gold if one believes gold will continue upward
And what if one believes that gold will probably perform flat at best, and could even continue on down in the future? >>
DGLD >>
That was quick +
good call derryb >>
Where I'm currently parked, and why I prefer silver
Give Me Liberty or Give Me Debt
report.
The data is so positive, I am surprised that it has not caused metals to rise.
Up until some point in 2011 metals were in a perfect position. Interest rates
and thus carrying costs were very low. Future inflation expectations were high.
Perfect, and metals responded.
Then, the thinking changed to the idea that the economy would stay sluggish and inflation tame
much longer than expected. That is the thinking now. This is the worst scenario for metals.
The surprise scenario would be the economy and inflation picking up more quickly than expected.
We will see.
Give Me Liberty or Give Me Debt
It's an experiment.
What will either be worth ? One may not exist. The other always will. Neither put food on the table. That takes a hunter with a hawk eye.
How much for a Bitcoin, today ?
I knew it would happen.
Liberty: Parent of Science & Industry
I knew it would happen.
<< <i>picture worth a thousand words >>
bubbles, bubbles, bubbles! Timing is everything, isn't it?
<< <i>picture worth a thousand words >>
You go ahead and buy high (the blue one) and I'll buy low (the red one). Your picture confirms where the bargain is.
Give Me Liberty or Give Me Debt
Liberty: Parent of Science & Industry
<< <i>The thread and opinions are two years old. >>
My last post is current opinion.
Give Me Liberty or Give Me Debt
100% Positive BST transactions
I think im finally getting thru to you derryb.
We may now be seeing some relative value in PMs and related equities.
Knowledge is the enemy of fear
Give Me Liberty or Give Me Debt
<< <i>My opinion to buy low was formed a very long time ago. >>
So you're the one who originally thought up that bit of wisdom! Maybe you can help us with this toughie then: when should one sell?
Liberty: Parent of Science & Industry
<< <i>
<< <i>My opinion to buy low was formed a very long time ago. >>
So you're the one who originally thought up that bit of wisdom! Maybe you can help us with this toughie then: when should one sell? >>
When your partner cohodk tells you to.
Give Me Liberty or Give Me Debt
<< <i>
<< <i>
<< <i>My opinion to buy low was formed a very long time ago. >>
So you're the one who originally thought up that bit of wisdom! Maybe you can help us with this toughie then: when should one sell? >>
When your partner cohodk tells you to. >>
Thats an insult to Baley. I believe he is probably more intelligent than both of us combined and more than capable of formulating original thoughts and ideas. In fact I'm not sure if I have ever seen him regurgitate a blog or other newsletter admiring another's thoughts.
Derryb, you are on record in these threads posting and promoting opinion to buy silver in the $40. Some people warned of relative pricing only to be scorned and ridiculed. It would be very easy for me to detail the values of some "all-in" trades, but you already know.
Fact is fact. Lots of good and well meaning folk have been crushed financially listening to fear mongering and ill-informed, uneducated hyperbole. Denial is a very deep river in this forum.
Knowledge is the enemy of fear
<< <i>well, it's been a month since the last post
how have stocks done versus physical gold?
Gold down 4.36% in the past 30 days
my largest stock position up 11.64% >>
Baley let me offer a quick counterpoint, there are many people over the last 50 years that have lost a huge portion of their life savings investing long term (10 plus years) in the stock market and that just doesn't happen with PM's. I understand it has worked out well for you and many others buying and trading stocks on a weekly basis but it's just not for everyone.
Successful card BST transactions with cbcnow, brogurt, gstarling, Bravesfan 007, and rajah 424.
Liberty: Parent of Science & Industry
Liberty: Parent of Science & Industry
<< <i>Scars from crisis still linger during 5 year stock bull market >>
Interesting article. Thanks.
<< <i>Alright, ringing the bell and cashing out some GDXJ, has been a good run chart
I have been a promoter here of GDXJ for quite a while now. I agree, take the money and run. It will provide the same opportunity again later, but once again at a cheaper price.
Give Me Liberty or Give Me Debt
Liberty: Parent of Science & Industry
I've been stock heavy this year.
Too many positive BST transactions with too many members to list.
<< <i> Friday November 04, 2011 7:56 AM by kuch: "Some believe another round of QE is just around the corner. Gold prices will rise and stock prices will rise. I wonder when it will be time to sell stocks and put everything into physical gold/silver? Who's got that crystal ball?" >>
respond from bailey:
<< <i> Friday November 04, 2011 9:29 AM "Saying "stocks" is like saying "metals" (or even "commodities") There are specific stocks that that will probably outperform gold and silver by a wide margin over the next couple of years. I do not think it is now or ever time to "sell stocks and put everything into physical gold/silver" but instead, to diversify among asset classes" >>
<< <i>Friday November 04, 2011 9:59 AM " Such a crystal ball does not exist...but Baley's advice is sound. Cheers, RickO" >>
derry...don't know about your c/b..it needs to be cremated. Hope no one took your advise.
<< <i> Friday November 04, 2011 11:41 AM "now is a good time to convert stocks to PM's. If the stocks are not PM mining stocks you should also consider converting to the miners. If the stocks are mining stocks, hold them. ETF GDXJ is a good paper play on the junior miners." >>
<< <i>bailey... You get to keep your crystal ball, again. (make me a copy)
<< <i> Friday November 04, 2011 7:56 AM by kuch: "Some believe another round of QE is just around the corner. Gold prices will rise and stock prices will rise. I wonder when it will be time to sell stocks and put everything into physical gold/silver? Who's got that crystal ball?" >>
respond from bailey:
<< <i> Friday November 04, 2011 9:29 AM "Saying "stocks" is like saying "metals" (or even "commodities") There are specific stocks that ithat will probably outperform gold and silver by a wide margin over the next couple of years. I do not think it is now or ever time to "sell stocks and put everything into physical gold/silver" but instead, to diversify among asset classes" >>
<< <i>Friday November 04, 2011 9:59 AM " Such a crystal ball does not exist...but Baley's advice is sound. Cheers, RickO" >>
derry...don't know about your c/b..it needs to be cremated. Hope no one took your advise.
<< <i> Friday November 04, 2011 11:41 AM "now is a good time to convert stocks to PM's. If the stocks are not PM mining stocks you should also consider converting to the miners. If the stocks are mining stocks, hold them. ETF GDXJ is a good paper play on the junior miners." >>
>>
The guy who suggested to go long PM's in 2011....well.....don't quit your day job.
<< <i>
<< <i>bailey... You get to keep your crystal ball, again. (make me a copy)
<< <i> Friday November 04, 2011 7:56 AM by kuch: "Some believe another round of QE is just around the corner. Gold prices will rise and stock prices will rise. I wonder when it will be time to sell stocks and put everything into physical gold/silver? Who's got that crystal ball?" >>
respond from bailey:
<< <i> Friday November 04, 2011 9:29 AM "Saying "stocks" is like saying "metals" (or even "commodities") There are specific stocks that ithat will probably outperform gold and silver by a wide margin over the next couple of years. I do not think it is now or ever time to "sell stocks and put everything into physical gold/silver" but instead, to diversify among asset classes" >>
<< <i>Friday November 04, 2011 9:59 AM " Such a crystal ball does not exist...but Baley's advice is sound. Cheers, RickO" >>
derry...don't know about your c/b..it needs to be cremated. Hope no one took your advise.
<< <i> Friday November 04, 2011 11:41 AM "now is a good time to convert stocks to PM's. If the stocks are not PM mining stocks you should also consider converting to the miners. If the stocks are mining stocks, hold them. ETF GDXJ is a good paper play on the junior miners." >>
>>
The guy who suggested to go long PM's in 2011....well.....don't quit your day job. >>
I wouldn't really call 3 years "long". Just my look on it.
What about the people who said "go long in the SM" in 2005/2006 when the economy was cranking, everybody was spending money, the housing market was booming, etc? Do you think the crash in 2008/2009 was good for those "longers" just 3 short years after?
Too many positive BST transactions with too many members to list.
2011 to 2014 - I must have been dumb. Except that I kept buying.
2015 - I haven't quit my day job, and I'm still rescuing dollars.
I knew it would happen.
<< Friday November 04, 2011 11:41 AM "now is a good time to convert stocks to PM's. If the stocks are not PM mining stocks you should also consider converting to the miners. If the stocks are mining stocks, hold them. ETF GDXJ is a good paper play on the junior miners."
Sadly, this is one of the worst prognostications/calls/predictions/recommendations ever made on these boards!
I still do not think it is time to go "all in" in any one asset class, but I've been selling stocks and buying gold to rebalance and will be doing more of it after the new year.
Liberty: Parent of Science & Industry
<< <i>"derry...don't know about your c/b..it needs to be cremated. Hope no one took your advise.
<< Friday November 04, 2011 11:41 AM "now is a good time to convert stocks to PM's. If the stocks are not PM mining stocks you should also consider converting to the miners. If the stocks are mining stocks, hold them. ETF GDXJ is a good paper play on the junior miners."
Sadly, this is one of the worst prognostications/calls/predictions/recommendations ever made on these boards!
Not the worst. I have made worse.
Give Me Liberty or Give Me Debt
Knowledge is the enemy of fear