Comrades, what would make you stop stacking?
renman95
Posts: 7,037 ✭✭✭✭✭
What events would make you go long & strong in the dollar?
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a balanced budget gets us nowhere.
we need a surplus budget. (pay down the national debt faster than the interest is piling up)
That's one.
Two. We still have trade imbalances. Our balance of trade needs to swing positive and stay positive. Heck, I'd even settle for a near neutral (but still positive) one.
That's two obvious ones right off the top of my head.
Fred, Las Vegas, NV
that would end,
is my fascination with all things PM.
The frosting is all the other stuff that drives the prices up.
Miles
One pill makes you larger
And one pill makes you small
And the ones that mother gives you
Don't do anything at all
Go ask Alice
When she's ten feet tall
And if you go chasing rabbits
And you know you're going to fall
Tell 'em a hookah smoking caterpillar
Has given you the call
Call Alice
When she was just small
When men on the chessboard
Get up and tell you where to go
And you've just had some kind of mushroom
And your mind is moving slow
Go ask Alice
I think she'll know
When logic and proportion
Have fallen sloppy dead
And the White Knight is talking backwards
And the Red Queen's "off with her head!"
Remember what the dormouse said;
"Keep YOUR HEAD
I knew it would happen.
Zero inflation from today forward.
If we lived in a world devoid of any and all inflation, i'd stop stacking tommorrow....keep all the metal I have aquired thus far, and then build a massive bank savings account.
In fact, inflation is probably the ONLY reason why I even stack metal now.
After we get in and my wife goes back to work, I am buying going to start buying again, regardless of the price.
Overdate, BestMR, Weather11AM, TDEC1000, Carew4me, BigMarty58, Coinsarefun, Golfer72, UnknownComic, DMarks, JFoot13, ElKevvo, Truthteller, Duxbutt, TwoSides2aCoin, PerryHall, mhammerman, Papabear, Wingsrule, WTCG, MillerJW, Ciccio, zrlevin, dantheman984, tee135, jdimmick, gsa1fan, jmski52, SUMORADA, guitarwes, bstat1020, pitboss, meltdown, Schmitz7, 30AnvZ28, pragmaticgoat, wondercoin & MkMan123
from the Joseph P Kennedy Wikipedia entry:
Kennedy knew it was time to get out of the stock market [in 1929] when he received stock tips from a shoe-shine boy...
We are not quite to the "shoe shine boy" on gold, but it is getting there. TV personalities Suzy Orman, Jim Cramer and now media hound Donald Trump have all made headline news with gold. I recently posted about a scientific Gallup poll where gold is ranked number one among all age groups, all political groups, when asked "what is the best investment for the next 30 years?" These are not signs of a bull market that still has a long shelf life. Let me preface by saying in the long run, yes all fiat currencies are almost certainly going to zero. However, in between the long run and today, there may be 50% or 80% down moves for gold. 50% is bad enough, if it is more like 80% (ala Gecko's $500 genie) I don't really want to ride that out. If the well is that deep, I don't want to be accumulating on the way down, especially if the time frame to zero for fiats may stretch out for many decades. I'm much rather unload some and buy back 3x or 5x as much, decades later.
Hopefully, when my "shoe shine boy" starts giving gold tips, I will have enough sense to unload some, instead of rationalizing about how good the fundamentals still look. I won't sell it all, because I am not an all-in or all-out player. In my case, the shoe shine boys might be the little old ladies at church. When one or several of them tell me that they have bought a silver bar or gold coin to insure their financial future, it will almost surely be time to sell, and even go short on a trading basis. This forum has it's share of "shoe shine boys," so keep watching here too.
Fellas, leave the tight pants to the ladies. If I can count the coins in your pockets you better use them to call a tailor. Stay thirsty my friends......
<< <i>see.... what the republicans do not realize is that we do not need a balanced budget.
a balanced budget gets us nowhere.
we need a surplus budget. (pay down the national debt faster than the interest is piling up)
That's one. >>
How come no one talks about this?!?!?! It seems like a no brainer!
I knew it would happen.
Worry is the interest you pay on a debt you may not owe.
"Paper money eventually returns to its intrinsic value---zero."----Voltaire
"Everything you say should be true, but not everything true should be said."----Voltaire
<< <i>When real interest rate becomes positive. >>
that's another small but good one
<< <i>I'd stop stacking if PM prices got so high that I felt it was a bubble ready to burst. At that point I would sit on the sidelines. >>
and another.
Oops, sorry, I go off on tangents sometimes. Must be age . In answer to your question ,I had another client who cashed out around the same time in 1981 and bought 30 year notes which were paying quite a bit. Now I don't know why most of us in the business didn't know when to do that
Me? I'd diversify but I don't see ever not having this stuff around
Coin's for sale/trade.
Tom Pilitowski
US Rare Coin Investments
800-624-1870
<< <i>I am keeping a close watch on sentiment. One of the more famous Wall Street stories is about the "shoe shine boy" in 1929.
from the Joseph P Kennedy Wikipedia entry:
Kennedy knew it was time to get out of the stock market [in 1929] when he received stock tips from a shoe-shine boy...
We are not quite to the "shoe shine boy" on gold, but it is getting there. TV personalities Suzy Orman, Jim Cramer and now media hound Donald Trump have all made headline news with gold. I recently posted about a scientific Gallup poll where gold is ranked number one among all age groups, all political groups, when asked "what is the best investment for the next 30 years?" These are not signs of a bull market that still has a long shelf life. Let me preface by saying in the long run, yes all fiat currencies are almost certainly going to zero. However, in between the long run and today, there may be 50% or 80% down moves for gold. 50% is bad enough, if it is more like 80% (ala Gecko's $500 genie) I don't really want to ride that out. If the well is that deep, I don't want to be accumulating on the way down, especially if the time frame to zero for fiats may stretch out for many decades. I'm much rather unload some and buy back 3x or 5x as much, decades later.
Hopefully, when my "shoe shine boy" starts giving gold tips, I will have enough sense to unload some, instead of rationalizing about how good the fundamentals still look. I won't sell it all, because I am not an all-in or all-out player. In my case, the shoe shine boys might be the little old ladies at church. When one or several of them tell me that they have bought a silver bar or gold coin to insure their financial future, it will almost surely be time to sell, and even go short on a trading basis. This forum has it's share of "shoe shine boys," so keep watching here too. >>
Well put, but the is more awareness of Gold, most people still don't own gold (other than jewelry) and more are selling than buying. This is still only being held by the big boys and very few average americans. I feel we are along way off before Joe six pack starts looking for eagles or maple leaves. IMHO.
Fred, Las Vegas, NV
<< <i>I would stop stacking and go long & strong in the dollar when:
One pill makes you larger
And one pill makes you small
And the ones that mother gives you
Don't do anything at all
Go ask Alice
When she's ten feet tall
And if you go chasing rabbits
And you know you're going to fall
Tell 'em a hookah smoking caterpillar
Has given you the call
Call Alice
When she was just small
When men on the chessboard
Get up and tell you where to go
And you've just had some kind of mushroom
And your mind is moving slow
Go ask Alice
I think she'll know
When logic and proportion
Have fallen sloppy dead
And the White Knight is talking backwards
And the Red Queen's "off with her head!"
Remember what the dormouse said;
"Keep YOUR HEAD
Liberty: Parent of Science & Industry
<< <i>see.... what the republicans do not realize is that we do not need a balanced budget.
a balanced budget gets us nowhere.
we need a surplus budget. (pay down the national debt faster than the interest is piling up)
That's one.
Two. We still have trade imbalances. Our balance of trade needs to swing positive and stay positive. Heck, I'd even settle for a near neutral (but still positive) one.
That's two obvious ones right off the top of my head. >>
These are the only two really but you'll know these will actually happen someday when
people demand value for their money. It'll happen AFTER people demand the schools start
teaching. It will happen AFTER people are held accountable for outcomes of their actions.
We might be able to muddle through if they'd just allow the economy to restabilize after closing
the budget deficit but the lobbyists in Washington will not allow this.
The dollar has been exploding since 1978 but time is speeding up now.
<< <i>I have a client who cashed out in 1981 just before the collapse and took the money and put it into baseball cards. About 10 years ago he was cashing out some of those cards and buying early gold. You can say he's done pretty well with coins as an investment
Oops, sorry, I go off on tangents sometimes. Must be age . In answer to your question,I had another client who cashed out around the same time in 1981 and bought 30 year notes which were paying quite a bit. Now I don't know why most of us in the business didn't know when to do that
Me? I'd diversify but I don't see ever not having this stuff around >>
Dow to Gold ratio hit 1:1 in 1980. Now you know when the next time to sell will be. And I'd avoid the baseball cards and go right to equities. A 1:1 ratio is not only a historical indicator for gold's high, it is also a good indicator for the bottom in stocks.
"Interest rates, the price of money, are the most important market. And, perversely, they’re the market that’s most manipulated by the Fed." - Doug Casey
I remember the line as
"Feed YOUR HEAD"
or, was that wishful thinking that justified my behavior back then?
Many members on this forum that now it cannot fit in my signature. Please ask for entire list.
<< <i>see.... what the republicans do not realize is that we do not need a balanced budget.
a balanced budget gets us nowhere.
we need a surplus budget. (pay down the national debt faster than the interest is piling up)
That's one.
Two. We still have trade imbalances. Our balance of trade needs to swing positive and stay positive. Heck, I'd even settle for a near neutral (but still positive) one.
That's two obvious ones right off the top of my head. >>
I agree with you, but unfortunately I do not envision the level of political discipline required to make these things happen. At least I do not foresee them happening in my lifetime, anyway.
Price.
Knowledge is the enemy of fear
I ..did.... buy zero coupon bonds around 81-83. 12.55% on em. But only in the IRA dammit. ALL of the IRA but kept out in the trading acct.
dum dum dum dum dum
<< <i>I would stop stacking and go long & strong in the dollar when:
One pill makes you larger
And one pill makes you small
And the ones that mother gives you
Don't do anything at all
Go ask Alice
When she's ten feet tall
And if you go chasing rabbits
And you know you're going to fall
Tell 'em a hookah smoking caterpillar
Has given you the call
Call Alice
When she was just small
When men on the chessboard
Get up and tell you where to go
And you've just had some kind of mushroom
And your mind is moving slow
Go ask Alice
I think she'll know
When logic and proportion
Have fallen sloppy dead
And the White Knight is talking backwards
And the Red Queen's "off with her head!"
Remember what the dormouse said;
"Keep YOUR HEAD
Hum, I am still stacking. What's your point!
"Comrades, what would make you stop stacking?"..... Stalin is rolling over in his grave/glass box......., whatever they keep him in.
In God We Trust.... all others pay in Gold and Silver!