Will a debt deal make it fall hard ?
pmcollectour
Posts: 1,211 ✭
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pmcollectour
Posts: 1,211 ✭
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I'd love a dip though, got some ends I want to splurge with.
I knew it would happen.
However, most likely whatever deal is struck will be smoke and mirrors to buy some cover for both parties involved as they just kick the can down the road and PMs will continue to go up.
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Our only hope is that the economy turns around and tax receipts climb because of more employed workers but that does not seem likely in the short and mid term. We have dug such a deep hole (and continue to do so) that default of some kind will probably happen in the next year or two.
Our politicians do not have the backbone to tell the American people what really is going on and it seems the average American either does not want to hear the truth or is not smart enough to understand it.
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It is a sign that we now depend on ongoing financial assistance from foreign countries to finance our governments reckless fiscal policies." Sen. Obama of Illinois March 2006.
Coin's for sale/trade.
Tom Pilitowski
US Rare Coin Investments
800-624-1870
<< <i>" The fact that we're here today to debate raising Americas debt limit is a sign of leadership failure. It is a sign that the u.s. government can't pay it's own bills.
It is a sign that we now depend on ongoing financial assistance from foreign countries to finance our governments reckless fiscal policies." Sen. Obama of Illinois March 2006. >>
Bush did it.
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<< <i>
<< <i>" The fact that we're here today to debate raising Americas debt limit is a sign of leadership failure. It is a sign that the u.s. government can't pay it's own bills.
It is a sign that we now depend on ongoing financial assistance from foreign countries to finance our governments reckless fiscal policies." Sen. Obama of Illinois March 2006. >>
Bush did it.
Well he did. But obama is doing it even better
Coin's for sale/trade.
Tom Pilitowski
US Rare Coin Investments
800-624-1870
while gold and silver advanced. Since they lead the charge they were the first to end it. There are probably a dozen or so gaps in totality among the GLD, SLV, SIL, and GDX
charts. Even dropping to $1590 will address 3 of those with GLD. The debt deal probably allowed PM's to keep trickling up, but the miners were signaling a pause 2 weeks
ago. Just seems to me that it was time to pull back/consolidate after a very strong June/July. But in the scheme of things this just might only be the half way point to the next
major target. The debt debate was probably just more convenient news to try and explain why gold and silver continue on their march. The dollar seems likes it's completed a
series of waves down and ready for a rebound.
roadrunner
"Interest rates, the price of money, are the most important market. And, perversely, they’re the market that’s most manipulated by the Fed." - Doug Casey
But with 6 days left, they don't have much time for both parts of congress to pass the same thing then have the president sign it.
leadership failure: both sides are guilty here.
I think the press will be on it this election year asking who tochoose when both parties are to blame. We may hear some third party questions from them, and others will point towards the Tea Party people as also to blame and proof 3rd parties won't work any better. All are to blame as long as there is dogma to push, and I hope we have some viable third, fourth, fifth, etc. party candidates to vote for next election. I'm ready for them. (been ready)
need any enemies. We have more then enough in Congress.
Camelot
"it is likely that the US will be downgraded by one or more ratings agencies. The effect will be massive because the world's largest pension, mutual, and sovereign wealth funds typically mandate investment only in AAA-rated securities. A downgrade of US debt means those funds must immediately sell off their primary reserve asset. The effect of this cannot be overstated, and gold would be the first and best refuge for an onslaught of orphaned capital."
And these most interesting tables:
"Interest rates, the price of money, are the most important market. And, perversely, they’re the market that’s most manipulated by the Fed." - Doug Casey
Besides, even at BBB, the USA is the safest most liquid investment in the world.
And this "default" would only be technical in nature. The USA can easily pay its debt holders. The question is whether or not it wants to continue to pay out on excessive entitlements. The people will decide.
Knowledge is the enemy of fear
1991...30.50
1992....7.7
1993...10.0
1994....1.3
1995..37.4
1996..23.1
1997..33.4
1998..28.6
1999..21.0
AVE---21.4%
The Nasdaq averaged 32.6% during that time.
Interesting that the Nasdaq returned 50% more than the SP-500, just as silver has returned 50% more than gold.
Knowledge is the enemy of fear
My Dear Friends,
Financial TV actually has a countdown clock to the day of Default. I still feel that a compromise at the last moment that offsets the default but does not do anything meaningful in the over the top debt problem will come.
The question in all our minds is what will such compromise have on the price of gold?
We have written here recently and published the articles of others that state a downgrade of US Treasuries has more serious long-term implications economically than a short term technical default.
I cannot recommend the hedges you hold by owning gold and gold related items be dropped even if gold was trading at $1650.
There is nothing going to happen that is going to offset the borrowing demands of the US Treasury in a significant way. Rating Agencies who have not hesitated to downgrade everything Euro cannot hide from the sloppy process going on now in the Senate and House.
If US rating agencies fail to downgrade US Debt they show themselves to be Europhobic and without any credibility.
Stand strong and hold your gold hedges. What is likely to happen is a US debt downgrade after a compromise on the debt ceiling which will be much ado about nothing.
Regards,
Jim
I am suprised we are still discusssing the rating agencies as if they have any credibility?? I suppose in absence of something greater or worse.......
Miles
Agreed 100%. The USA is the most viable, innovative, stable and powerful country this planet has ever known. Does is really make a difference what letters a bunch of suits assign to us?
Like Sinclair says, "much ado about nothing."
Knowledge is the enemy of fear
MOO
TD
they just all agree to raise the debt ceiling and push the problem down the road.
what are people's predictions if this scenario occurs?
I think +/- $25 gold, +/- $2 silver
If you buy gold, silver , oil or any commodities you might rise the price too fast by flooding the market with too much cash.
Would you buy Euros, pounds , yen? they are no better than the dollar ...just the same fiat paper.
Groucho Marx
<< <i>"Fall hard" I doubt it, but yes when/if a deal is struck it will fall. >>
That's what my crystal ball is saying also...
"Interest rates, the price of money, are the most important market. And, perversely, they’re the market that’s most manipulated by the Fed." - Doug Casey
I'm with you Ricko. If I owe $10k, then apply for more credit, and rack up another $10k, my total debt is now $20k.
I can't continue forever, sooner or later I'll have to wittle down my debt. WTF are our elected officials thinking, lets
borrow more, raise the ceiling, and everything will be fine?
<< <i><<It is almost certain that the U.S. will be downgraded.... raising the debt ceiling just allows more debt... how can that possibly be good?>>
I'm with you Ricko. If I owe $10k, then apply for more credit, and rack up another $10k, my total debt is now $20k.
I can't continue forever, sooner or later I'll have to wittle down my debt. WTF are our elected officials thinking, lets
borrow more, raise the ceiling, and everything will be fine? >>
Lets say you could go to the bank and borrow without even a signature. And you could raise your debt limit just by saying........"it's raised". The bank has gone along because of your stellar ability to collect and repay. They never dreamed it would ever be a problem. The game goes on until one day the bank decides......."hey this is a problem". Boom........Game Over. You have no skin in the game so.......oh well. It was fun while it lasted
So what the country is trashed? They (elected officials) don't seem to believe the bank (China mostly) will pull the plug. Its rather a sick game. Thomas Jefferson would be shaking his head. They knew what could happen and warned against it. I guess we the people allowed it to happen. Makes my stomach turn.
Didn't even need to read any more of the comments on the thread. I completely agree...damage is done. Who in their right mind would want to (continue) to do business with the fault-land?
<< <i>Gold is overbought. It will fall with little excuse. Its time to fall. >>
Overbought where? Paper? Physical metals are the animal that needs to have eyes on it. Paper is crap and I believe most folks who aren't billion dollar manipulators of the paper market know that.
I think too much credit is being given to how much the paltry US market has to do with the delivery price of metals. China/India/Russia/Europe will have a little something to say about what you'll pay to get an ounce of this or that in your hand no matter what our dumbmasses do here in the states.
Or are you expecting the dollar to suddenly revalue to the positive to drive commodities down? I have a bridge for sale....
<< <i>
<< <i>Gold is overbought. It will fall with little excuse. Its time to fall. >>
Overbought where? Paper? Physical metals are the animal that needs to have eyes on it. Paper is crap and I believe most folks who aren't billion dollar manipulators of the paper market know that.
I think too much credit is being given to how much the paltry US market has to do with the delivery price of metals. China/India/Russia/Europe will have a little something to say about what you'll pay to get an ounce of this or that in your hand no matter what our dumbmasses do here in the states.
Or are you expecting the dollar to suddenly revalue to the positive to drive commodities down? I have a bridge for sale.... >>
Credit is in a perpetual bubble. Print on!
Gold is not.
When gold hits $5,000 we are bubble-land, $8,000 is crazy town.
A default should not be an option and it raises problems too important to be left to politicians with egos that only exceed the debt itself.
Experience the World through Numismatics...it's more than you can imagine.
Have the Republicans been playing the "stick it to the democrats" game all along and Trump just made a lucky call ????
I also ask this because they were once asking about giving the president power to raise the limit himself 3 times in the future. I always thought that was a move to blame the president for raising the debt ceiling. (3 times for him, but it's been over 100 for Congress who passed the law in the first place)
<< <i>This is what the Republicans are doing to ensure that BO doesn't get elected again. They are willing to put this "motive" ahead of the U.S. financial well being imo. They have no strong canidate to this point for the '12 election. This is their canidate, to make BO look as bad as possible and to make it appear like it happened on his watch. And most of the people are stupid enough to believe it. Oh how soon we forget how/when/who started all this. >>
He's doing just fine on his own accords.
<< <i>I am suprised we are still discusssing the rating agencies as if they have any credibility
Agreed 100%. The USA is the most viable, innovative, stable and powerful country this planet has ever known. Does is really make a difference what letters a bunch of suits assign to us?
Like Sinclair says, "much ado about nothing." >>
In 395 A.D. :
The Roman empire is the most viable, innovative, stable and powerful empire this planet has ever known.
Then they began debasing coins to fund their army. In other words, the Roman empire did exactly what the U.S. is in the process of doing.....living well above their actual means. This of course was a contributing factor to the empire's fall......and will be a major factor in our fall.
.
a dead mouse.......
Now what?
Box of 20
<< <i>After many days of painful labor, the great she-elephant hath delivered
.
a dead mouse.......
Now what? >>
The ball is in the donkey's court now. I can't wait to see what they come up with.
Worry is the interest you pay on a debt you may not owe.
"Paper money eventually returns to its intrinsic value---zero."----Voltaire
"Everything you say should be true, but not everything true should be said."----Voltaire
And the only plan I'd have faith in would be one that comes from both sides.
I do think the Dems have made a mistake in not answering the Republicans whines of "where's the Democrats' plan?"
However, I don't think the Republicans efforts to blame the Dems in this way are sound. Any idiot can throw out a plan. Reid can throw out a Senate passed plan. It's not going to fly if there isn't compromise. I haven't heard the Republicans acknowledge the "cut SS and Medicare suggestions" nor the "raise taxes on the wealthy" suggestions as part of any plan nor (especially nor) recognize them as part of a compromise plan.
<< <i>Barney Frank was on Cavuto this morning and stated there is no longer a federal statute that requires that if Triple A Bond ratings of federal debt or other securities are downgraded that these bonds have to be sold by banks, pensions, mutual funds..... Frank says he does not believe the Rating Agencies are that credible anymore. I never heard of this and neither did Cavuto. That is just the federal statute, it has no control over private rules of insitutions that still have to sell securities that are downgraded. >>
The decision to invest in only AAA bonds is that of the fund prospectus, not the government (at least not yet). Funds have an obligation to their shareholders to invest in premium products and many have set AAA as their minimum to attract and keep investors and to protect their investment. The "debt limit crisis" is nothing more than a political charade that both parties are trying to use to sway 2012 votes.
"Interest rates, the price of money, are the most important market. And, perversely, they’re the market that’s most manipulated by the Fed." - Doug Casey
<< <i>The "debt limit crisis" is nothing more than a political charade that both parties are trying to use to sway 2012 votes. >>
While this may be true, there are many people that will lose jobs, and programs that will no longer exist because of these cuts.
New Jersey and California laid off people and cut programs to reduce their debt.
I see it more as we've borrowed and spent more then we should have, and now we have to make cuts. These cuts will be felt by some.
Looks like we may have a deal as of Sunday morning. We'll see what happens.
Added: And it's an election cycle, to boot. Obama will buy all the votes he can possibly buy, with our money whether it's authorized or not. Being a Bilderburg conspiracy type of guy, I'm going to pay closer attention to what the big banks are doing and saying. Wasn't Jamie Dimon up on Capitol Hill a week or so ago whinning about the new bank cost structure? I wonder whose offices he visited after his performance?
I'm still intrigued over George HW's clandestine visit to the White House about a year ago - with absolutely no reporting on the meeting and no followup whatsoever. I didn't know those two were acquainted, but I'm sure they found themselves to have alot in common.
I knew it would happen.
<< <i>Barney Frank can blow all the smoke he wants, but the bond market isn't going to be happy with any outcome now. And if the bond market isn't happy, the whole cost structure of US debt is going to go up. When interest rates go up, the debt load just gets worse. They cannot lie their way out of this. They will inflate more.
Added: And it's an election cycle, to boot. Obama will buy all the votes he can possibly buy, with our money whether it's authorized or not. Being a Bilderburg conspiracy type of guy, I'm going to pay closer attention to what the big banks are doing and saying. Wasn't Jamie Dimon up on Capitol Hill a week or so ago whinning about the new bank cost structure? I wonder whose offices he visited after his performance?
I'm still intrigued over George HW's clandestine visit to the White House about a year ago - with absolutely no reporting on the meeting and no followup whatsoever. I didn't know those two were acquainted, but I'm sure they found themselves to have alot in common.
???
If there was absolutely no reporting of it, how do you know it happened?
I think that there is a certain clubbiness among Presidents and former Presidents that transcends party lines. Who else can understand what you went through or are going through? I have no problem with the incumbent having a predecessor over for a drink or two or a cup of coffee.
TD
You have seen the light my friend.
While this may be true, there are many people that will lose jobs, and programs that will no longer exist because of these cuts.
Yeah, and pigs get slaughtered. It's what needs to happen. It's what the Republicans are willing to risk to stand a chance in '12. Make the man in charge look as bad as possible and brainwash the horse blinder public to think that he created the problem and can't solve it. Why else hasn't he just raised the limit himself as he is allowed to do? because that would mean sure defeat in '12. This was started by a lameduck on his way out when he could not run for re-election. He/his Party created this to play out for his Party to stand a chance in the next go around because it was apparent that they didnt have a strong chance. Cmon, really? An old man whos had cancer twice and a wild eyed phsyco was the best the Party could offer? I respect J McC, but he tried to ride out his whole prisoner of war thing too afr, and look what it got him, defeat. I was a life long Republican til the middle of GW's 2nd term. Maybe I can so clearly see this because it takes one to know one. I saw the way the Republicans were looking further out, for their next chance. As I said earlier, GW creating this years ago is their canidate NOW.
btw, I am no longer a supporter of Republicans, nor am I of Dems. I vote the person now that I am in my mid 40's. I realized that my generation can no longer look at politics the way our Fathers did, too much has changed...or maybe it hasnt changed, it's just been brought more to light because of things like the internet. And no, I don't believe everything on the net, but I sure as hell use it to decipher the facts from the rumor. Our Fathers didn't have that luxury.
a two part plan with only about $3 trillion in cuts.
the first trillion they agree on, and the rest comes via a committee and will be enacted automatically if congress fails to vote on them separately in a timely manner.
a two part plan doesn't bother me so much if they can time if very quickly, but this one doesn't seem to have "very quickly" in mind. Also, it is only $3 trillion in cuts??
Wimps! All of them are Wimps!!!
<< <i>Peter Schiff's take on the matter
"it is likely that the US will be downgraded by one or more ratings agencies. The effect will be massive because the world's largest pension, mutual, and sovereign wealth funds typically mandate investment only in AAA-rated securities. A downgrade of US debt means those funds must immediately sell off their primary reserve asset. The effect of this cannot be overstated, and gold would be the first and best refuge for an onslaught of orphaned capital."
And these most interesting tables:
I sure as heck wish I could go back to 2001 oh well move on