Is the Swiss Franc the new safe haven?

CaptHenway · July 24, 2011 11:58PM

Up to $1.245 now.

BigRick · July 24, 2011 11:58PM

Yes.

Wingsrule · July 25, 2011 12:13AM

MJ's been saying that for months now.

Justacommeman · July 25, 2011 1:07AM

The Swiss Franc is the anti euro and anti dollar. The yen is plan b. Gold is gold. MJ

JCMhouston · July 25, 2011 4:06AM

Yes indeed.

mrearlygold · July 25, 2011 4:07AM

A customer sent me a LOT of new german marks right before they went euro. Dayum I wish I kept em.

Justacommeman · July 25, 2011 4:22AM

There is no Euro without Germany. Could you imagine the value of the German mark today if it was an independent currency? It would be off the charts...................MJ

mrearlygold · July 25, 2011 4:39AM

<< There is no Euro without Germany. Could you imagine the value of the German mark today if it was an independent currency? It would be off the charts...................MJ >>

Right and why the german people aren't going nuts over the handing out freely of there labor to support those other people is something to see. We're not told the whole story.

Still wish I had dose marks while the ghost of marx consumes the place

renman95 · July 25, 2011 6:08AM

<< 

<< There is no Euro without Germany. Could you imagine the value of the German mark today if it was an independent currency? It would be off the charts...................MJ >>

Right and why the german people aren't going nuts over the handing out freely of there labor to support those other people is something to see. We're not told the whole story.

Exactly. I was there just there and strangely no uproar. I guess the German's think they have no say so they don't say anything. But then again they are probably wondering why we haven't had our revolution yet.

57loaded · July 25, 2011 6:30AM

well okay but...be careful of long term enthusiasim(sp?) IMHO

cohodk · July 25, 2011 7:29AM

For today it is. Buying begets buying. There really isnt much behind the Swiss Franc though. Their economy is highly service oriented with virtually no agriculture or natural resources and they do have massive exposure to the financial markets.

It is a very crowded trade with perhaps 5% more upside potential (although I do have a trendline at about the 125 area), and considerably more downside. If I were a Swiss citizen I'd be looking to cash in some Francs for a beachhouse in Florida. I hear the winters are bit warmer there.

MJ says the woman aint bad.

fastrudy · July 25, 2011 8:57AM

good chocolate, cuckoo clocks, shooting arrows off your kids head with a crossbow,...

Justacommeman · July 25, 2011 11:41AM

<< For today it is. Buying begets buying. There really isnt much behind the Swiss Franc though. Their economy is highly service oriented with virtually no agriculture or natural resources and they do have massive exposure to the financial markets.

It is a very crowded trade with perhaps 5% more upside potential (although I do have a trendline at about the 125 area), and considerably more downside. If I were a Swiss citizen I'd be looking to cash in some Francs for a beachhouse in Florida. I hear the winters are bit warmer there.

MJ says the woman aint bad. >>

Yes, true it is a very popular trade today. It wasn't as popular sixth months ago as I personally felt there was much more meat left on the bone. Some felt it was doneski at 1.10/

The Swiss also have the best army in the world FWIW

.

I like a short Swiss franc/Long Canadian dollar play if you made me sell Swiss francs. MJ

cohodk · July 25, 2011 11:59AM

<< 

<< For today it is. Buying begets buying. There really isnt much behind the Swiss Franc though. Their economy is highly service oriented with virtually no agriculture or natural resources and they do have massive exposure to the financial markets.

It is a very crowded trade with perhaps 5% more upside potential (although I do have a trendline at about the 125 area), and considerably more downside. If I were a Swiss citizen I'd be looking to cash in some Francs for a beachhouse in Florida. I hear the winters are bit warmer there.

MJ says the woman aint bad. >>

Yes, true it is a very popular trade today. It wasn't as popular sixth months ago as I personally felt there was much more meat left on the bone. Some felt it was doneski at 1.10/

The Swiss also have the best army in the world FWIW

.

I like a short Swiss franc/Long Canadian dollar play if you made me sell Swiss francs. MJ >>

You mean Army Knives?

And I like that pairs trade A LOT!!!!

Justacommeman · July 25, 2011 2:03PM

<< You mean Army Knives?

>>

Knives, ok

Seriously though, the Swiss Guard is who you want if you need protection . The Pope knows protection. MJ

CaptHenway · July 25, 2011 3:46PM

Dollar index sinking.....

1jester · July 25, 2011 4:18PM

cohodk · July 26, 2011 1:04AM

<< 

<< You mean Army Knives?

>>

Knives, ok

Seriously though, the Swiss Guard is who you want if you need protection . The Pope knows protection. MJ >>

I agree, they do have a very skilled Army. Problem is it is only comprised of about 25 people. Of course im speaking figuratively, but you know what I mean.

Franc hit 1.25 this morn.

CaptHenway · July 26, 2011 1:19AM

<< 

<< 

<< You mean Army Knives?

>>

Knives, ok

Seriously though, the Swiss Guard is who you want if you need protection . The Pope knows protection. MJ >>

I agree, they do have a very skilled Army. Problem is it is only comprised of about 25 people. Of course im speaking figuratively, but you know what I mean.

Franc hit 1.25 this morn. >>

There is a story, probably apocryphal, that Adolph Hitler visited Switzerland prior to the outbreak of World War II, and during a conversation with the head of state found occasion to make the comment that the German Army was 50 times the size of the Swiss Army. The head of state supposedly replied "Then we shall have to shoot 50 times!" This allegedly influenced Hitler's decision later to respect Swiss neutrality.

cohodk · July 26, 2011 1:55AM

I think Hitler just needed a "supposed" neutral party with which to store his ill gotten bounty.

To keep this coin and bullion related.........

It is interesting that the Swiss gold 20 franc had mintages of just a few 100,000 before WWII, but then suddenly there were 20 million struck in 1945 (with the date 1935--before WWII). Where all that gold come from?

stevek · July 26, 2011 2:12AM

<< 

<< For today it is. Buying begets buying. There really isnt much behind the Swiss Franc though. Their economy is highly service oriented with virtually no agriculture or natural resources and they do have massive exposure to the financial markets.

It is a very crowded trade with perhaps 5% more upside potential (although I do have a trendline at about the 125 area), and considerably more downside. If I were a Swiss citizen I'd be looking to cash in some Francs for a beachhouse in Florida. I hear the winters are bit warmer there.

MJ says the woman aint bad. >>

Yes, true it is a very popular trade today. It wasn't as popular sixth months ago as I personally felt there was much more meat left on the bone. Some felt it was doneski at 1.10/

The Swiss also have the best army in the world FWIW

.

I like a short Swiss franc/Long Canadian dollar play if you made me sell Swiss francs. MJ >>

<<< The Swiss also have the best army in the world FWIW. >>>

Which is exactly why the Nazis did not try to invade them.

cladking · July 26, 2011 2:57AM

In modern times when a currency gets too strong the issuer has a very strong tendency
to suck a lot of blood out of it. The Swiss just suck less life out of their money than most
major countries. It's probably time to start selling all underperforming Swiss assets. The
Canadian dollar is good for the long term but perhaps not as much so for the short term.
The yen is still a buy.

The Aussie dollar may be the dark horse in this race. They have an entire continent to
exploit but I always figured the low population would put this well into the future. They've
been importing foreign workers and the economy has been strong. They are "near" all
the emerging markets except Brazil and poised for some potentially large moves. I would
consider the situation somewhat fragile and highly dependent on foreign trade. A major
economy in the southern hemisphere could capitalize on being out of sync with the weather.

OPA · July 26, 2011 3:06AM

<< think Hitler just needed a "supposed" neutral party with which to store his ill gotten bounty. >>

How true in addition no natural resources so to speak of.
The Swiss can thank the Knights Templars for their existence and banking system.

percyb · July 26, 2011 3:28AM

Australian dollar is sound. Canada has a well balanced economy and is financial fit. Either of these are a safe haven, imho.

Justacommeman · July 26, 2011 5:39AM

<< Australian dollar is sound. Canada has a well balanced economy and is financial fit. Either of these are a safe haven, imho. >>

They've been good to me and I still like them. Both tend to trade with with oil most of the time. The Aussie is a carry trade currency and can pull back severely when the risk trade is off. (the aussie $ pays nice interest). Cando banks in my humble opinion are the safest and most conservative in the world. MJ

CaptHenway · July 26, 2011 3:03PM

Aussie $1.10+!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

Justacommeman · July 28, 2011 10:15PM

Speaking of safe havens----By looking at the prices of 5-year credit default swaps, Norway's debt ranks the safest, followed by Sweden, Switzerland, Finland, the Netherlands and Australia according to a recent CNN article.

Canada, Singapore and Germany also have safer bonds than the United States. If the US gets downgraded to an AA rating it will join China, Japan, Spain and Saudi Arabia in that gouping. Not the end of the world and it's probabaly where we belong in the ratings game. MJ

derryb · July 28, 2011 10:23PM

In uncertain economic times many investors overlook the best safe haven: one's self. Now is a good time to invest in a sure thing. Spend money on you.
(1) Lose the chains: get out of debt where possible
(2) Retool: buy things you need at a bargain
(3) Enjoy life: spend some money on happiness, it is very under rated
(4) Save: spend some money on the future

Justacommeman · July 28, 2011 10:57PM

word, derryb..............MJ

CaptHenway · July 28, 2011 11:07PM

Just looked this morning, and the Swanc is up over $1.26, but the Aussie and Canuck dollars are down. Go figger.....

Justacommeman · July 28, 2011 11:56PM

<< but the Aussie and Canuck dollars are down. Go figger..... >>

Oil is down sharply. MJ

CaptHenway · July 29, 2011 12:03AM

<< 

<< but the Aussie and Canuck dollars are down. Go figger..... >>

Oil is down sharply. MJ >>

How are the wallaby stew futures doing?????

Justacommeman · July 29, 2011 12:08AM

<< 

<< 

<< but the Aussie and Canuck dollars are down. Go figger..... >>

Oil is down sharply. MJ >>

How are the wallaby stew futures doing????? >>

Prices are hopping along as usual and are all over the place. MJ

cohodk · July 29, 2011 1:48AM

<< In uncertain economic times many investors overlook the best safe haven: one's self. Now is a good time to invest in a sure thing. Spend money on you.
(1) Lose the chains: get out of debt where possible
(2) Retool: buy things you need at a bargain
(3) Enjoy life: spend some money on happiness, it is very under rated
(4) Save: spend some money on the future >>

Sounds like Baleyville.

RE: rock currencies

Cant escape fundamentals. 1% growth in the USA, and a probable recession in Europe, does not bode well for the economies of China and Brazil who still count on the developed world to subsidize their growth.

derryb · July 29, 2011 2:04AM

<< Sounds like Baleyville.

>>

I did use the word "uncertain," not the word "rosey."

CaptHenway · July 29, 2011 5:56AM

Yodel futures up!

Bear · July 31, 2011 7:26AM

The Swiss profit from every human misery. They keep out of every war,

by being of service to all sides in any conflict. They are the prostitute

government of the world. They will service anyone, no matter how

despicable.

cladking · July 31, 2011 8:08AM

<< The Swiss profit from every human misery. They keep out of every war,

by being of service to all sides in any conflict. They are the prostitute

government of the world. They will service anyone, no matter how

despicable. >>

I don't believe this is fair.

Some of their actions in WW II were certainly despicable but by and large the currency
is strong based on solid fundamentals and adding wealth to the world. Currencies of
economies that add more wealth than they consume and waste tend to be stronger
unless the issuer intentionally weakens it.

Besides, if they really profited from human misery the franc would be at far higher levels.

Spooly · July 31, 2011 8:43AM

I like the idea of a Gold backed Swiss Franc. I would load up!

Justacommeman · August 1, 2011 12:57AM

Wow, 1.28+. This thing has a mind of it of its own.............MJ

cohodk · August 1, 2011 1:13AM

<< Wow, 1.28+. This thing has a mind of it of its own.............MJ >>

Thin market, highly manipulated. Going parabolic. Danger, Will Rogers, danger.

FXF could be making an interesting candle today.

CaptHenway · August 1, 2011 1:33AM

<< Wow, 1.28+. This thing has a mind of it of its own.............MJ >>

And yet the dollar index is strong.

"Hold onto your hats, ladies! This could be a bumpy ride!"

Bette Davis

cohodk · August 2, 2011 1:01AM

Im sure the Swiss are loving their high-flying currency.

Baley · August 2, 2011 1:23AM

Im sure the Swiss are loving their high-flying currency

perhaps a specific Swiss citizen, businessman, or investor's opinion of the currency's relative strength depends, in large part, on his asset allocation decisions versus time

cohodk · August 2, 2011 1:42AM

an economy that is increasingly dependent on a steady tide of foreign investment. Because of the country's small size and high labor specialization, industry and trade are the keys to Switzerland's economic livelihood.

The Swiss currency is now making their exports very uncompetitive. It has also virtually ceased foreign investment. Their stock market is still down 40% from its 2008 peak and only up 35% from the 2009 lows.

From a Credit Suisse report dated Mar 8, 2011..."the gap between real estate prices and household income to a worrying extent. Consequently, the possibility of the market overheating looks increasingly real." From another source, dated I believe in 2006, "The average home costs most Swiss eight times their average annual income". Real estate values have continued to increase since 2006 so this stat may be of even greater concern.

My opinion.... The country is ready to fall into recession.

57loaded · August 2, 2011 2:30AM

for a week or three, but not for long

CaptHenway · August 2, 2011 5:40AM

$1.305 ish!!!!!!!!!!!

Justacommeman · August 2, 2011 12:45PM

........

It's exceeded my wildest expectations. MJ

cohodk · August 20, 2011 10:33PM

This story details so many violations of the KISS principle....

the Swiss franc is creating a time bomb for city finances

In some worst-case scenarios, the interest rates on these loans are double digit and can exceed 50%

CaptHenway · August 20, 2011 11:46PM

<< This story details so many violations of the KISS principle....

the Swiss franc is creating a time bomb for city finances

In some worst-case scenarios, the interest rates on these loans are double digit and can exceed 50% >>

WOW!

cohodk · August 26, 2011 1:02AM

1.23 now. Always beware parabolas.

It would also behoove one to look at a chart of the Euro. A quite sizeable move is coming imminently.

Is the Swiss Franc the new safe haven?

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