Most volatile PM day I have seen in my lifetime!

gecko109 · April 25, 2011 3:10AM

Although I was 5 yrs old in 1980, I didnt even know what precious metals were.

Today (from last night around midnight) is by far the most volatile day of trading in silver that I have ever witnessed! There has been a $4 swing in the past 12 hours. The chart looks like an amusement park ride. These are interesting times....I hope everyone is taking notes!

gecko109 · April 25, 2011 3:11AM

Weeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeee!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

tydye · April 25, 2011 3:13AM

I was thinking the same thing.

CaptHenway · April 25, 2011 3:15AM

<< Although I was 5 yrs old in 1980, I didnt even know what precious metals were.

Today (from last night around midnight) is by far the most volatile day of trading in silver that I have ever witnessed! There has been a $4 swing in the past 12 hours. The chart looks like an amusement park ride. These are interesting times....I hope everyone is taking notes! >>

Welcome to The Big Times!!!!!!!

TJM965 · April 25, 2011 4:23AM

You ain't seen nothin yet.

derryb · April 25, 2011 4:26AM

going down, back up the truck!

roadrunner · April 25, 2011 4:36AM

<< Although I was 5 yrs old in 1980, I didnt even know what precious metals were.

Today (from last night around midnight) is by far the most volatile day of trading in silver that I have ever witnessed! There has been a $4 swing in the past 12 hours. The chart looks like an amusement park ride. These are interesting times....I hope everyone is taking notes! >>

Not really. If you hadn't looked at the silver price since Friday afternoon, until just now at 2 PM EST, you'd say, wow....silver is still going up. Volatility is in the eye of the beholder.
From a % standpoint I think it had bigger daily swings in 2006 and 2008.

Spikey top this morning to $49.82. Will now trace out an ABC correction. These past retraces have often returned to retest the neckline of cup formations. So, I'm first looking at $44.75 where a rising neckline fits multiple points. But the flatish neckline formed around $42-$43 would be about worst case.

roadrunner

storm888 · April 25, 2011 5:01AM

ZSL

Day's Range: 13.79 - 15.42

Volume: 27,228,429

Avg Vol (3m): 2,836,390

.......................................

SLV

Day's Range: 44.53 - 47.00

Volume: 148,642,864

Avg Vol (3m): 34,249,600

.....................................

GLD

Day's Range: 146.42 - 147.58

Volume: 12,445,776

Avg Vol (3m): 14,060,800

.........................................................................

Gold is still trading on REAL and partially MEASURABLE fundamentals.

Silver is trading on a peasantine mania, bolstered ONLY by SHORT-covering.
That mania appears to be FAR from its natural end; wise traders will be ready
to act BEFORE that end comes.

.....................

Above $55, smart silver buyers will invoke "negative premiums" on their purchases.

Silver loves to take the escalator up, but often takes the elevator down.

It may be fun to think of silver as "the poor man's gold," but silver is NOT gold.
(...but whosoever hath not, from him shall be taken away even that which he hath...)

dontippet · April 25, 2011 5:06AM

Just a couple months ago, we had a day when silver went up 5%, then down 5%. That day was more volitale than today.

JCMhouston · April 25, 2011 5:33AM

<< Will now trace out an ABC correction. These past retraces have often returned to retest the neckline of cup formations. So, I'm first looking at $44.75 where a rising neckline fits multiple points. But the flatish neckline formed around $42-$43 would be about worst case. >>

Huh?????

Anyway, been there done that, I was way older than 5 in 1980. I did not lose any money back then, but also did not make the maximum profit potential as I sold out most of my meager stack before it reached the peak, I think around $29-30 was where I got out. I kept a little then rode it back down to around 29-30 again before getting out completely. But you guys that have held on this long have done better than me, I was all out of silver 2 weeks ago, so congrats on the ride.

MrOrganic · April 25, 2011 7:42AM

one of cnbc's shills on fast money mentioned CME raised margin req again today?

cant find any info on google? try CME website?

halfhunter · April 25, 2011 7:42AM

<< Although I was 5 yrs old in 1980, I didnt even know what precious metals were.

Today (from last night around midnight) is by far the most volatile day of trading in silver that I have ever witnessed! There has been a $4 swing in the past 12 hours. The chart looks like an amusement park ride. These are interesting times....I hope everyone is taking notes! >>

Didn't have the Internet or lightning fast communications during the '79 - '80 bubble. We J6Ps got the price from the newspaper or from the local TV news commodities report along with top hogs, and feeder cattle prices, each evening . . .

HH

storm888 · April 25, 2011 8:01AM

<< We J6Ps got the price from the newspaper or from the local TV news commodities report along with top hogs, and feeder cattle prices, each evening . . . HH >>

/////////////////////////////

We had a subscription phone line that gave us the current
numbers, in 1976.

By 1979, there were free phone lines that gave you the
price AND a recorded commercial from the AU/AG peddlers.

...................................

Many folks had fax machines way before 1980.

My first one was a Qwip. It cost $4,700.00 per unit; since
I wanted to send docs to another store, I bought two.

AMZN sometimes has the old Qwips listed; $12.95 is the
usual price.

It took about 5+ minutes to send one page and it sounded
like a freight train was rolling thru the office.

OnlyGoldIsMoney · April 25, 2011 8:17AM

I stayed up way too late last night watching the price of silver surge past $48 and $49 and all but lunge for $50. The price was moving from $48.50 to $49.50 in a matter of seconds.

This morning I was glad to unload my SLV ETF shares at 9:30 AM at the high of the day.

Spooly · April 25, 2011 8:44AM

I like it! The Bulls and the Bear making runs at each other all day......... the Bears puked and had to cover their short postions! Hopefully the Bulls can put some Horn on those Bears and get a close above $50!

I sold some silver on Thursday and sold somemore today...... Apmex $50.32 per oz!

vibr0nic · April 25, 2011 9:02AM

Very big swings today... I've never seen this chart with a 5 dollar range...

COALPORTER · April 25, 2011 10:25AM

<< Just a couple months ago, we had a day when silver went up 5%, then down 5%. That day was more volitale than today. >>

Yes, i do remember a 3 dollar swing day sometime around 27 $/oz.

derryb · April 25, 2011 11:31AM

<< Silver is trading on a peasantine mania, bolstered ONLY by SHORT-covering.
That mania appears to be FAR from its natural end; wise traders will be ready
to act BEFORE that end comes. >>

I still believe silver is an upside down bubble. The bubble is in the artificially hammered down prices that are trying to explode. When this type bubble finally does pop, you want to be holding all the silver you can. During the dot.com bubble it was a question of how long they could keep prices propped up. With the inverse silver bubble it's a question of how long they can keep the price held down. It's slippin' and a slidin' away from them!

CaptHenway · April 25, 2011 11:33AM

I'm an old fart.
I was up at midnight last night (CDT) clicking REFRESH on Kitco every few seconds watching silver spike.
It was DANG exhilarating!!!
TD

UconnL · April 25, 2011 11:42AM

It appears that COMEX/CME margin req's up by 10%...

Maybe SLV drops to $43.78???

Larry

CaptHenway · April 25, 2011 11:48AM

<< It appears that COMEX/CME margin req's up by 10%...

Maybe SLV drops to $43.78???

Larry >>

Isn't that how the gummint broke the Hunt Brothers, upping the margin requirements?

CaptHenway · April 25, 2011 11:51AM

Margin story linky:

linky

BigRick · April 25, 2011 11:51AM

Here is my Silver chart with daily volatility since 5/21/10 (I show the high vol on 11/16/10):

piecesofme · April 25, 2011 11:57AM

Just a couple months ago, we had a day when silver went up 5%, then down 5%. That day was more volitale than today.

Yes, when it hit $30, it went to $26.80 within 2 days if i remember. But then within another few days it bolted over $31.

roadrunner · April 25, 2011 12:24PM

ABC zig-zag correction in progress. It's a yes! 5 waves total from August to May/June for a normal cycle. Only 2 up legs have occured so far. A 3rd remains. Today's action
was not the final blow off top in this sequence.

This is merely a small 4th wave correction in the current wave pattern that began on March 15th. Once this wave 4 completes over several days to a week, it will be on to wave 5
which will take it to a new all time high somewhere in the $54-$62 range by late May or early June. The wave 2 correction that occured in March lasted 6 days and was a relatively
flattish ABC. This one will probably last no longer but will be much steeper. The two previous up legs ran $11 and $17 respectively. The last one should be something inbetween.
I see $57-59.XX as a reasonable next topping to toy with the $60 level.

roadrunner

AnkurJ · April 25, 2011 1:32PM

So is this probably a good buying opportunity?

roadrunner · April 25, 2011 1:36PM

<< So is this probably a good buying opportunity? >>

Yeah, shaping up that way. I think it will get better as the week progresses. Silver just touched the non-inflation adjusted peak from January 1980. That 31 yr cup
formation projects another advance from $95 to $380 depending on whether you use a linear or log chart. Silver's summer project after the final push in late May will
be putting a small handle on this 31 year cup before proceeding later this year.

roadrunner

EagleEye · April 25, 2011 3:48PM

Margin requirements - This writer says they need higher than only 9%

Silver Market: Why CME Must Raise Margin Requirements By 30%

The CME routinely sets margins based upon contract prices. So, if Silver goes up $10 more in price, then the ratio of margin to price goes down. In order to realign margins with the higher price, CME would raise the margins.

(Not to say I agree with him. I think it shows how the raising of the margin is a reflex to the price rather than an attempt to control it and that it probably wont have any long term effect.)

MoneyLA · April 25, 2011 6:33PM

I have a simple philosophy about charting...

Once you hit a new high and hold that high for a short period, newer highs are coming.

Beyond that, the trick is breaking through to a new high.

$50 will trigger a lot of selling. Survive that selling and there is no overhead resistance.

piecesofme · April 25, 2011 9:20PM

With regards to silver value, 1980 & now have nothing to do with one another, not a single common thing. Why? Totally different market, totally different way of trading, far more "instant" technology to reflect true, real time trading. Different standard view of trading (buy & hold then, flip it for a quick profit now).
Chart it all you want but the only one that really means anything is the current one, going back no more than a year. All jmho.

Spooly · October 26, 2012 5:09AM

Just to cheer everyone up!

cohodk · October 26, 2012 8:51AM

So much bullishness.

No wonder the view is always best at the top.

Been a tough 18 months for many, many folks.

roadrunner · October 27, 2012 6:38AM

<< So much bullishness.

No wonder the view is always best at the top.

Been a tough 18 months for many, many folks. >>

Yeah. Silver had a textbook 5 wave move from Oct 2008 - April 2011. Don't know what I was seeing at that time but it certainly wasn't the right thing.

OPA · October 27, 2012 9:57AM

<< 

<< So much bullishness.

No wonder the view is always best at the top.

Been a tough 18 months for many, many folks. >>

Yeah. Silver had a textbook 5 wave move from Oct 2008 - April 2011. Don't know what I was seeing at that time but it certainly wasn't the right thing.

>>

You were probably reading J.S's prophecies and rehashing all those conspiracy angles.

Most volatile PM day I have seen in my lifetime!

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