I'm thinking Silver will correct to $28 to $32.......

DoubleEagle59 · April 8, 2011 9:06AM

I won't predict 'when' but when it happens, I believe the correction will be to the $28 to $32 level.

What do you think?

(I hope you don't think the price can go vertical forever!!).

Wingsrule · April 8, 2011 9:18AM

There are still some references to various posts made the last time someone(s) made that prediction. Of course, that was 25% ago.

derryb · April 8, 2011 9:49AM

give you $29 to $33 for all you got.

CaptMorgan · April 8, 2011 10:09AM

I don't think it will go that low again. Maybe ever.

I see silver steady around $50 an ounce once, and it will, hit that mark.

I think a small dip is coming, but I do not think it will be that big, maybe $35-$38

DoubleEagle59 · April 8, 2011 10:41AM

<< I don't think it will go that low again. Maybe ever.

I see silver steady around $50 an ounce once, and it will, hit that mark.

I think a small dip is coming, but I do not think it will be that big, maybe $35-$38 >>

Are you saying the days of the large, quick 'takedowns' are over for Silver?

7over8 · April 8, 2011 10:51AM

we will take out $50 very soon

CaptMorgan · April 8, 2011 11:15AM

Maybe not over, but I don't see it happening anytime soon.

Konahead · April 8, 2011 11:43AM

I would love to add a bunch more, but i don't think we will see these levels anytime soon if ever.

gecko109 · April 8, 2011 10:55PM

<< I won't predict 'when' but when it happens, I believe the correction will be to the $28 to $32 level.

What do you think?

(I hope you don't think the price can go vertical forever!!). >>

Why not forever? The USD is in a perpetual nosedive....why cant silver/gold be in a perpetual rise? Makes perfect sense to me.

Weiss · April 9, 2011 12:25AM

I'm expecting silver to correct to $10. It was only $9 an ounce as recently as October of 2008.

If you are "investing" or "saving" your money in any PMs and you're not at least open to the possibility that metals will correct that low or even lower, then you're not "investing" or "saving" rationally.

The whole idea of PMs, to me at least, is protecting yourself. Putting all of your eggs in the PM basket because you're certain they'll continue to rise or even just hold their value vs. other vehicles goes against the notion of fiscal protection.

derryb · April 9, 2011 12:36AM

<< I'm expecting silver to correct to $10. It was only $9 an ounce as recently as October of 2008.

If you are "investing" or "saving" your money in any PMs and you're not at least open to the possibility that metals will correct that low or even lower, then you're not "investing" or "saving" rationally.

The whole idea of PMs, to me at least, is protecting yourself. Putting all of your eggs in the PM basket because you're certain they'll continue to rise or even just hold their value vs. other vehicles goes against the notion of fiscal protection. >>

I more than welcome the dollar strength, lower oil prices and econopolitical environment it will take to support $10 silver. Yes, it can happen, but it won't.

JCMhouston · April 9, 2011 12:41AM

Remember Doubleeagle, a lot of the people here weren't investing in the 70's and 80's so they perhaps don't understand that what goes up always comes down. Every generation has to learnt he same lessons the hard way, remeber the .com's economy in the 90's, everyone claimed it was a new economy with new models, it couldn't fail.

But it did.

Baley · April 9, 2011 1:37AM

remember the .com's economy in the 90's, everyone claimed it was a new economy with new models, it couldn't fail.

But it did.

Not everyone was claiming that. A few warned investors to be cautious, that parabolic moves are almost always temporary, that a correction will happen sooner or later.

And they were marginalized, told that "this time it's different", told that we "just don't get it", told that P/Es don't matter any more, told that the laws of supply and demand have been permanently suspended.

Weiss, POTD, imo.

percyb · April 9, 2011 1:41AM

Anything is possible. I wouldn't rule it out, but things are getting much worse for the US dollar, not better. So I don't seee $30 silver anytime soon.

jmski52 · April 9, 2011 1:42AM

When P/E's cease to matter, then so does mathematics cease to matter.

Hey, how are the P/E's doing these days? I haven't been too much involved in stocks for awhile.

Weiss, have you ever driven from Nebraska into Colorado? Those peaks don't look very big until you get there. Conversely, when you are in the mountains, you don't realize that they don't look very big if you step back a ways and look at them from a more distant perspective.

I don't think we're at the blowoff stage, and I was financially involved in the 1978-1980 precious metals runup myself. Did pretty well, too.

DoubleEagle59 · April 9, 2011 1:54AM

I agree that we're no way near the blow-off.

I guess what I was saying earlier is 'where is the large correction' that we're so use to seeing in the past?

Maybe the big take down days are over.

Last Fall, when the price went from $18 to $31, we had a small brief correction to $26.50.

I thought then, the price of silver would have been driven down to $18 to $22, but it wasn't. (maybe things are different?)

It held at $26.50, rebounded very quickly and then zoomed to its present level at close to $41.

Applying this logic, perhaps my thinking of a current correction to $28 to $32 is too much and we'll only see a mild drop to $36 to $38??

jmski52 · April 9, 2011 2:03AM

I would normally expect a correction, especially this time of year. Some of the better precious metals writers that I read do expect one, and they also think that if we don't get a correction, it will forestall further price increases for a longer time.

My own opinion is that we should see a correction, but that it will be pre-empted by the recognition of a developing physical shortage. I'm not saying, "this time, it's different". I just can't see a rush of sellers materializing in this environment. If I had to guess, I'd guess a correction no lower than $34.00.

The technicians could tell you better, except for the fact that some of the fundamental drivers are becoming more pronounced. My plan is to buy platinum, and to continue adding pucks.

akuracy503 · April 9, 2011 2:05AM

A drop to 36-38 would hardly be a "correction", i'd pin it as volatility.
At current state we have very low volatility in silver, thus the gradual increase with no sign of letting up.

I honestly think we'd hit $50 silver before seeing a correction of $28-$32.

But i'm just a newby and all of this is wishful thinking or something I learned from someone elses analysis

dpoole · April 9, 2011 3:07AM

IMO, the "this time it's different" has to do with the erosion of the dollar, not with the essential value of silver. As I understand it, there is upward pressure on silver because of scarcity, but that certainly can and will abate over time according to traditional supply and demand. At issue is what an oz of silver is "worth" in terms of a dollar. After watching the silliness in Congress over the past few days, the dollar's continued decline seems almost certain to me.

57loaded · April 9, 2011 3:21AM

<< I agree that we're no way near the blow-off.
Applying this logic, perhaps my thinking of a current correction to $28 to $32 is too much and we'll only see a mild drop to $36 to $38?? >>

anythng is possible but even these revised numbers would only signal a brief consolidation of paper silver (IMHO)

gecko109 · April 9, 2011 4:00AM

<< IMO, the "this time it's different" has to do with the erosion of the dollar, not with the essential value of silver. As I understand it, there is upward pressure on silver because of scarcity, but that certainly can and will abate over time according to traditional supply and demand. At issue is what an oz of silver is "worth" in terms of a dollar. After watching the silliness in Congress over the past few days, the dollar's continued decline seems almost certain to me. >>

And this is exactly why the price of silver......which is denominated in U.S. dollars......CAN rise perpetually since the U.S. dollar's decline in value is in a perpetual fall.

Think of it this way:

Will we ever see 5 cent Hershey bars again?

How about 25 cent gas?

Movie tix at $1.25?

Brand new autos at $2,500?

And the list goes on and on and on. Can all of those items perpetually rise in "value"? As long as they are denominated in USDs, you betcha!

Silver and gold are no different. In fact, they are even better off because the world has realized once again.....after a 40 year forgetful fog.....that silver and gold are REAL money. Fiat is simply the product of governments....having value only because such government decrees it. The basic fact is that there is no intrinsic difference between the Sunday newspaper, and $100,000 in cash. All paper money eventually returns to its intrinsic value....zero. Voltaire.

Weiss · April 9, 2011 4:44AM

<< 

Think of it this way:

Will we ever see 5 cent Hershey bars again?

How about 25 cent gas?

Movie tix at $1.25?

Brand new autos at $2,500?

And the list goes on and on and on. Can all of those items perpetually rise in "value"? As long as they are denominated in USDs, you betcha!

Silver and gold are no different. In fact, they are even better off because the world has realized once again.....after a 40 year forgetful fog.....that silver and gold are REAL money. Fiat is simply the product of governments....having value only because such government decrees it. The basic fact is that there is no intrinsic difference between the Sunday newspaper, and $100,000 in cash. All paper money eventually returns to its intrinsic value....zero. Voltaire. >>

Thinking of it that way is not rational.

Movie tickets weren't $1.25 three years ago. Hershey bars weren't $.05 three years ago.

But silver was $9 three years ago. Silver has been between $5 and $10 an ounce for about the last 25 years--through inflation, deflation, recession, wars, nafta, nuclear proliferation, etc.

It has suddenly--very suddenly--increased in price 400%.

I recognize this is a PM forum and most of us (including me) are metals hounds and bleed silver and gold. But I think it's telling that some people see a rapid 400% increase in the price of silver not as a caution about future valuation but rather as evidence for continued increase in valuation.

Silver may very well increase in value (again, a relative term vs. the dollar). It could increase several hundred more percent. But it's clear to me that it could just as easily decrease by several hundred percent. If you don't at least acknowledge the possibility of a substantial decrease, then I think you might want to buy stock in Kraft (makers of Kool Aid).

gecko109 · April 9, 2011 4:53AM

<< 

<< 

Think of it this way:

Will we ever see 5 cent Hershey bars again?

How about 25 cent gas?

Movie tix at $1.25?

Brand new autos at $2,500?

And the list goes on and on and on. Can all of those items perpetually rise in "value"? As long as they are denominated in USDs, you betcha!

Silver and gold are no different. In fact, they are even better off because the world has realized once again.....after a 40 year forgetful fog.....that silver and gold are REAL money. Fiat is simply the product of governments....having value only because such government decrees it. The basic fact is that there is no intrinsic difference between the Sunday newspaper, and $100,000 in cash. All paper money eventually returns to its intrinsic value....zero. Voltaire. >>

Thinking of it that way is not rational.

Movie tickets weren't $1.25 three years ago. Hershey bars weren't $.05 three years ago.

But silver was $9 three years ago. Silver has been between $5 and $10 an ounce for about the last 25 years--through inflation, deflation, recession, wars, nafta, nuclear proliferation, etc.

It has suddenly--very suddenly--increased in price 400%.

I recognize this is a PM forum and most of us (including me) are metals hounds and bleed silver and gold. But I think it's telling that some people see a rapid 400% increase in the price of silver not as a caution about future valuation but rather as evidence for continued increase in valuation.

Silver may very well increase in value (again, a relative term vs. the dollar). It could increase several hundred more percent. But it's clear to me that it could just as easily decrease by several hundred percent. If you don't at least acknowledge the possibility of a substantial decrease, then I think you might want to buy stock in Kraft (makers of Kool Aid). >>

You "expecting" silver to correct back to $10/oz is no less insane an idea than someone thinking silver will hit $100 in the near future. The days of $10 silver are long gone as a function of current USDs. If the gov decides to devalue the money overnight....ala Mexico in the 90's, or North Korea last year......then we may once again see $10 silver. But the purchasing power will remain fairly unchanged.

As for the dramatic increases in silver over the past 3 years, alot of people simply feel that THIS is the "correction" that was overdue. Remember...in any asset class, a correction doesnt HAVE to be a downward event......sometimes its an upward one. Do you really feel that silver was "worth" just $4 a decade ago? According to your own estimation....based on your expected correction to $10.....you feel that silver's true worth right now is around $10/oz. As of today, the world disagrees with you. You may be right, but I seriously doubt it.

Baley · April 9, 2011 6:42AM

you keep saying "expect" when we say (and mean) "acknowledge the possiblility"

gecko109 · April 9, 2011 6:46AM

<< you keep saying "expect" when we say (and mean) "acknowledge the possiblility" >>

Im sorry Baley....maybe your understanding of the English language is stronger than mine. But in my world, the terms "expect" and "possible" have 2 very distinct and seperate meanings.

Do I expect to die within the next year? Nope.

Will I "acknowledge the possibility"? Of course.

Im not trying to play a game of semantics, but Weiss is a big boy....and VERY sharp as well. I think he meant what he said. Maybe he will clarify for us.

jmski52 · April 9, 2011 1:45PM

IMO, the "this time it's different" has to do with the erosion of the dollar, not with the essential value of silver. As I understand it, there is upward pressure on silver because of scarcity, but that certainly can and will abate over time according to traditional supply and demand. At issue is what an oz of silver is "worth" in terms of a dollar. After watching the silliness in Congress over the past few days, the dollar's continued decline seems almost certain to me.

For silver to increase that much faster than gold, something else is also in play. I just can't tell you what it might be. It could be a perpetual shortage that is developing, and Comex would probably be the first place that recognizes that as a fact. Of course, Comex isn't really discussing that possibility with any of us.

I'm not in a big hurry to sell silver just to make $10 or $20 an ounce. Nothing has changed - why would I do a thing like that?

IwantNonCCs · April 9, 2011 10:01PM

Observation from left field.

I am currently mostly "out" of the market, except a couple of hundred ounces. That is due to family issues causing me to sell about a year ago. I tend to put my "savings" into silver whatever the price point. However, when I needed the savings unexpectedly, out it came.

I have been trying to figure out the spike from ~$20 to ~$40 and my GUESS is it's just the speculators playing and therefore it could go down just as quick. I don't sense the rise is being driven by physical buying, as physical is easily avalable at the current price and has been throughout runup. (Maybe not the specific form of choice, but that's a different issue.)

So, with one group of speculators betting against another group of speculators, neither having any desire to take possession of actual silver, it seems to me it could go either way from here.

And when I have some more savings built up that I am not expecting to need in forseeable future, I will buy in, regardless if it is $20 or $60. But I would not touch it with borrowed money.

DoubleEagle59 · May 6, 2011 3:34AM

I think we're experiencing a little bounce right now.

Possibly the low will be in at $28 silver...$1400 gold and GSR at 50.

OPA · May 6, 2011 4:13AM

<< I think we're experiencing a little bounce right now.

Possibly the low will be in at $28 silver...$1400 gold and GSR at 50. >>

I hope you are correct with your assessment, but don't let gecko read this ...

Weiss · May 12, 2011 12:28AM

b u m p

JCMhouston · May 12, 2011 12:39AM

It might, but it might not.

OPA · May 12, 2011 1:03AM

<< I won't predict 'when' but when it happens, I believe the correction will be to the $28 to $32 level.

What do you think?

(I hope you don't think the price can go vertical forever!!). >>

Nice call...can I borrow your crystal ball?

Bear · May 12, 2011 2:34AM

I do believe that silver will indeed touch 30 again, if only intra day.

If it builds a base and retests, then it will be ready for another long

ride up. Of course, I could be totally off base and in that case,

am indeed sorry. After all, I am just a little fuzzy bear, what the heck

do I know.

I'm thinking Silver will correct to $28 to $32.......

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