For those of you who think gold is at a top:
gecko109
Posts: 8,231 ✭
Just wait until cities start to file for bankruptcy, and states default on muni bonds. Dont think thats gonna happen? Just wait. We are about 18-30 months away from wholesale defaults in every major market in this nation. When the scared money pulls out of municipal bonds, its going to flood the gold market. And if the U.S. FED starts to help these failing giants through some cute name....like "quantitative easing", or "internal stimulus", or however they brand it this time.....thats when the rocketship takes off!
0
Comments
It will be interesting to see just how much revenue Ill. 66% income tax hike
really brings in ..... over the next few years. Would you move to Cook County (Chicago)?
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Silver is the mortar that binds the bricks of loyalty.
They are in "town" right now dictating to Dear Leader their terms after the default, jmho, hmm!
<< <i>Spot on.
It will be interesting to see just how much revenue Ill. 66% income tax hike
really brings in ..... over the next few years. Would you move to Cook County (Chicago)? >>
I hear people are having trouble finding rental moving trucks in Ill!
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mariner67, and Mikes coins
One of the worse crime rated city's in US
He says our federal leaders won't let it get there.....SO I ask where is the stimilus going to come from? from our broke government? He says from private Corporate money, increase their taxes taxes taxes.....
I laughed in his face and said good luck getting politicians to vote that in.
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<< <i>...It will be interesting to see just how much revenue Ill. 66% income tax hike really brings in ..... over the next few years.... >>
.................
They don't really have a "few years."
The beast will have to be fed again sometime in 2012.
............
According to the scheme's architects:
The income tax hike will raise about $6.3-BILLION
The "corporate tax" hike will raise about $1-BILLION
The $1-per pack "cigarette tax" hike will raise an undefined amount.
(Actually, this hike will result in a LOSS of revs as smokers will go
"elsewhere" to buy their cigarettes.)
ALL of the money collected will be used to "collateralize" a NEW
round of BORROWING in the amount of $12.2-BILLION
The proceeds of that NEW float will go to:
$8.5-BILLION to pay "overdue bills."
$3.7-BILLION to pay a "missed" government worker pension payment.
As a result of the NEW loan - with borrowing costs added - the taxpayers
will be on the hook for ANOTHER $6-BILLION in unfunded liabilities IN
JUST 12-months.
What will happen when the NEW loan cannot be serviced in 2012?
The state will either:
1. Get permission to seek Bankruptcy protection; or,
2. Raise taxes AGAIN; or,
3. Ask Federal taxpayers to bail them out.
Since The Bernanke has said "no state/municipal bailouts will be made,"
more tax hikes for IL taxpayers are the most likely "remedy" NEXT YEAR.
........................................
IF bailouts are REALLY "off the table," as The Bernanke claims, the pressure
on gold prices will largely be limited to the psychological impacts of serial
municipal/state defaults. Those impacts could be shortlived.
Bankruptcy, when available, is a healthy thing; not a process that destroys
the debtor entity. Freed from their RIDICULOUS "obligations," most units of
govt would again be seen, by markets, as VERY credit worthy.
The metals may be a VERY temporary rest-stop for the capital that awaits
state/municipal post-default opportunities, but will NOT lead to a permanent
spike in metal prices. OTOH, a Federal default could/would indeed result in
a long lasting reset in metal prices.
Obviously, if Federal "bailouts" were squandered on rescuing state/municipal
debtors, there would be price action that could easily accelerate the move
toward a permanent reset in metal prices.
BUT, absent an actual Federal "default," we have to assume that the metal
market has ALWAYS "priced in" the "mere risk" of such a default. The mere
risk is one kind of price driver, but an ACTUAL default is a totally different
force.
......
<< <i>Just wait until cities start to file for bankruptcy, and states default on muni bonds. Dont think thats gonna happen? Just wait. We are about 18-30 months away from wholesale defaults in every major market in this nation. When the scared money pulls out of municipal bonds, its going to flood the gold market. And if the U.S. FED starts to help these failing giants through some cute name....like "quantitative easing", or "internal stimulus", or however they brand it this time.....thats when the rocketship takes off! >>
You got that right, Phil.
Next month you get paid in cheese won from the Governor of Wisconsin this weekend!
GO BEARS!!!!!!
<< <i>When firemen get laid off, they might need to sell their gold to pay their living expenses. >>
Thank you for making it public exactly what an idiot you are.
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<< <i>When firemen get laid off, they might need to sell their gold to pay their living expenses. >>
Thank you for making it public exactly what an idiot you are.
Come to think of it...the above quote about Fireman or any State or Local Bureaucrat being laid of is not that far fetched. It would not surprise me if it did happen in some of the affected States or Municipalities ...
TD
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mariner67, and Mikes coins
Liberty: Parent of Science & Industry
<< <i>We had a house in our state that the fire men just stood around and watched as it started as a small fire and then burned down to the ground. They protected the houses on each side of it. The reason was the home owner of the burning home didn't pay the $75.00 a year fee the county charges for fire protection that year. The home owner even offered to pay all the fire departments expenses if they would fight the fire but they refused to do so. >>
The guy was a jerk for not paying the fee.
<< <i>
The guy was a jerk for not paying the fee. >>
Naw, he was just stupid for not paying the fee...
He was a jerk for trying to publicize it as if the city or fire dept did anything wrong... or as if he was owed the service.
He was a jerk for trying to publicize it as if the city or fire dept did anything wrong... or as if he was owed the service.
I knew it would happen.
<< <i>Naw, he was just stupid for not paying the fee...
He was a jerk for trying to publicize it as if the city or fire dept did anything wrong... or as if he was owed the service.
I saw that all over the news... The VOLUNTEER Fire Dept wasn't at fault.. The homeowner was just too cheap to pay for the svc !
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<< <i>When firemen get laid off, they might need to sell their gold to pay their living expenses. >>
Thank you for making it public exactly what an idiot you are.
Come to think of it, isn't this the same idiot who made a post about gold is worthless or something like that? Just a desperate attempt at starting a intellectual conversation. Stick to your seated proof coins buddy, I'm sure when SHTF you'll be turning a profit.
<< <i>
<< <i>
<< <i>When firemen get laid off, they might need to sell their gold to pay their living expenses. >>
Thank you for making it public exactly what an idiot you are.
Come to think of it...the above quote about Fireman or any State or Local Bureaucrat being laid of is not that far fetched. It would not surprise me if it did happen in some of the affected States or Municipalities ... >>
Many small municipalities are manned by VOLUNTEER firefighters. Why can the big cities do the same?
Knowledge is the enemy of fear
Another $50 to $100 down, and the newcomers sucked in by the
TV-pitchers will either head for the exits OR be "encouraged" to do
some "bargain hunting."
Late last night, this list of proposed spending cuts was released. A
false optimism - as predicted by many in November 2010 - could
bring further downward pressure. Once everybody realizes that there
will be NO meaningful cuts, the elevator should quickly reverse.
Stackers should prolly do nothing for a little while. Well capitalized
paper traders should prolly get agressive with their guesses - if they
have the stomach for it - and bet both directions alternately.
Additional Program Eliminations/Spending Reforms
Corporation for Public Broadcasting Subsidy. $445 million annual savings.
Save America's Treasures Program. $25 million annual savings.
International Fund for Ireland. $17 million annual savings.
Legal Services Corporation. $420 million annual savings.
National Endowment for the Arts. $167.5 million annual savings.
National Endowment for the Humanities. $167.5 million annual savings.
Hope VI Program. $250 million annual savings.
Amtrak Subsidies. $1.565 billion annual savings.
Eliminate duplicative education programs. H.R. 2274 (in last Congress), authored by Rep. McKeon, eliminates 68 at a savings of $1.3 billion annually.
U.S. Trade Development Agency. $55 million annual savings.
Woodrow Wilson Center Subsidy. $20 million annual savings.
Cut in half funding for congressional printing and binding. $47 million annual savings.
John C. Stennis Center Subsidy. $430,000 annual savings.
Community Development Fund. $4.5 billion annual savings.
Heritage Area Grants and Statutory Aid. $24 million annual savings.
Cut Federal Travel Budget in Half. $7.5 billion annual savings.
Trim Federal Vehicle Budget by 20%. $600 million annual savings.
Essential Air Service. $150 million annual savings.
Technology Innovation Program. $70 million annual savings.
Manufacturing Extension Partnership (MEP) Program. $125 million annual savings.
Department of Energy Grants to States for Weatherization. $530 million annual savings.
Beach Replenishment. $95 million annual savings.
New Starts Transit. $2 billion annual savings.
Exchange Programs for Alaska Natives, Native Hawaiians, and Their Historical Trading Partners in Massachusetts. $9 million annual savings.
Intercity and High Speed Rail Grants. $2.5 billion annual savings.
Title X Family Planning. $318 million annual savings.
Appalachian Regional Commission. $76 million annual savings.
Economic Development Administration. $293 million annual savings.
Programs under the National and Community Services Act. $1.15 billion annual savings.
Applied Research at Department of Energy. $1.27 billion annual savings.
FreedomCAR and Fuel Partnership. $200 million annual savings.
Energy Star Program. $52 million annual savings.
Economic Assistance to Egypt. $250 million annually.
U.S. Agency for International Development. $1.39 billion annual savings.
General Assistance to District of Columbia. $210 million annual savings.
Subsidy for Washington Metropolitan Area Transit Authority. $150 million annual savings.
Presidential Campaign Fund. $775 million savings over ten years.
No funding for federal office space acquisition. $864 million annual savings.
End prohibitions on competitive sourcing of government services.
Repeal the Davis-Bacon Act. More than $1 billion annually.
IRS Direct Deposit: Require the IRS to deposit fees for some services it offers (such as processing payment plans for taxpayers) to the Treasury, instead of allowing it to remain as part of its budget. $1.8 billion savings over ten years.
Require collection of unpaid taxes by federal employees. $1 billion total savings.
Prohibit taxpayer funded union activities by federal employees. $1.2 billion savings over ten years.
Sell excess federal properties the government does not make use of. $15 billion total savings.
Eliminate death gratuity for Members of Congress.
Eliminate Mohair Subsidies. $1 million annual savings.
Eliminate taxpayer subsidies to the United Nations Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. $12.5 million annual savings.
Eliminate Market Access Program. $200 million annual savings.
USDA Sugar Program. $14 million annual savings.
Subsidy to Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD). $93 million annual savings.
Eliminate the National Organic Certification Cost-Share Program. $56.2 million annual savings.
Eliminate fund for Obamacare administrative costs. $900 million savings.
Ready to Learn TV Program. $27 million savings.
HUD Ph.D. Program.
Deficit Reduction Check-Off Act.
TOTAL SAVINGS: $2.5 Trillion over Ten Years
Plus, Meridith whitney and 60 minutes have already said the market will be devistating to munis
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<< <i>
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<< <i>When firemen get laid off, they might need to sell their gold to pay their living expenses. >>
Thank you for making it public exactly what an idiot you are.
Come to think of it...the above quote about Fireman or any State or Local Bureaucrat being laid of is not that far fetched. It would not surprise me if it did happen in some of the affected States or Municipalities ... >>
Many small municipalities are manned by VOLUNTEER firefighters. Why can the big cities do the same? >>
Most small municipalities dont build 2 1/2 story wood frame houses 4 feet apart. Have you ever been to a big city? With a volunteer fire department, response times would go from the current 2-3 minutes to at least 15 minutes or more. A 15 minute response time is ok for a fire in a building thats closest neighbor is 50 feet away....but try having a response time of 15 mins to a building on fire thats 4 feet from YOUR house!
TD
<< <i>Agree with the OP here. No way $1421 was tops, it was "a" top though. When we're at $2,000 next year - let's talk. >>
Why is it next year now? I thought all the "parabolic uptrend" was this spring 2011?
<< <i>Just to make a couple of points, the big money started fleeing munis a month ago, check the fund flows. The state and federal govt will literally destroy the country before they allow defaults, now that the people have been warned. The only state default during the depression was AR, it went bankrupt trying to prevent all of it's cities and towns from defaulting. Whatever happens will not be pretty, but I'm not sure we can predict that outcome either. >>
BTW There is nothing in the US Constitution that allows a State to file BK, i guess Arkansas didn't file...just defaulted on bonds? just curious.
i think States will be supported at all costs at the Federal level (that is what you are saying?)....regardless of what is said today from D.C.
<< <i>Why is it next year now? I thought all the "parabolic uptrend" was this spring 2011? >>
Still could be this year but I see $1500 or $1550 this spring and $1600-$1650 in the fall. This bull run has a long way to go and our economy has many ups and downs ahead. The recent "uptick" in equities looks over for now. It won't take much bad news this winter to push gold to $1500.
Never fear! Our money printing extravaganza isn't half over yet.
I'll admit I'm flustered with all the comments since last week............???
"...BTW There is nothing in the US Constitution that allows a State to file BK,..." >>
///////////////////////////
Congress could legislate a "Chapter 8" BK.
Provided the statute did NOT include provisions for "involuntary bankruptcy"
proceedings, there would be NO constitutional impairment.
The qualm is that state sovereignty could be encroached by the meddling; it
would NOT, if the state could NOT be forced to seek BK protection.
It would take a rightwing govt to make the MUCH needed legislation happen.
<< <i>Just wait until cities start to file for bankruptcy, and states default on muni bonds. Dont think thats gonna happen? Just wait. We are about 18-30 months away from wholesale defaults in every major market in this nation. When the scared money pulls out of municipal bonds, its going to flood the gold market. And if the U.S. FED starts to help these failing giants through some cute name....like "quantitative easing", or "internal stimulus", or however they brand it this time.....thats when the rocketship takes off! >>
Howz everyone enjoying Illinois politics and economics?? They raised our income taxes now (we already pay high property and sales taxes) and that's not going to be enough to fix the economic problems and the debt of the state. More government here means less $$ and fewer freedoms in the Land of Lincoln. Illinois is belly-up officially. Remember that no State is an island.
<< <i>"...BTW There is nothing in the US Constitution that allows a State to file BK,..." >>
///////////////////////////
Congress could legislate a "Chapter 8" BK.
Provided the statute did NOT include provisions for "involuntary bankruptcy"
proceedings, there would be NO constitutional impairment.
The qualm is that state sovereignty could be encroached by the meddling; it
would NOT, if the state could NOT be forced to seek BK protection.
It would take a rightwing govt to make the MUCH needed legislation happen. >>
Article 1 Section 10:
No state shall pass any Law impairing the Obligation of Contracts.
And this means the contractual pension obligations. I just dont see how a state can get around the United States constitution.
<< <i>Article 1 Section 10:
No state shall pass any Law impairing the Obligation of Contracts.
And this means the contractual pension obligations. I just dont see how a state can get around the United States constitution. >>
///////////////////////////////////////////////
ALL BK statutes "impair" contracts.
Virtually EVERY issue likely to be raised by a "Chapter 8" was
already addressed by SCOTUS in 1938, when Chapter 9 was
greenlighted.
Municipal BK - Chapter 9 - already gives the BK courts the
right to "cram down" provisions of a reorganization plan filed
by a local/municipal govt.
"Chapter 8" would simply mirror Chapter 9.
The most "protected class" in the contemplated "Chapter 8"
would likely be CURRENT recipients of pension benefits. ALL
other prospective beneficiaries would be left to their best
negotiating skills AND those of their union bosses.
Existing benefit recipients would be handled somewhat gently,
but "future" beneficiaries of the "contract" would take a HARD
but not fatal hit. There would be something left for the future
trough, but not very much.
Pensioners would be at war with bondholders in such a scenario.
The bond guys would take almost any deal they were offered;
if the unions balked, the judge would be disamused AND could
easily declare ALL/MOST of the union demands off the table
and subject them to "cram down."
History shows that Debtor municipalities are treated MUCH more
favorably than their private-corporation counterparts, in BK courts.
The courts' primary interest in C9s is to "save" the debtor govt; if
govt workers get the shaft, the courts are, generally, disinterested.
The inevitability of C8 legislation will become clear, IF there is ANY
overt attempt by the Feds to print money to bailout the failed little
govts. The peasants who oppose bailouts will be in the streets with
pitchforks; AND, precious metals will get a nice bump.
At this moment, we have to take The Bernanke at his word: No
Bailouts For Failing Govts.
If The Bernanke is NOT lying, the little govts will either HAVE to get
legislative permission to go BK, or continue to raise taxes on a
population that is NOT remotely interested in saving govt or its
workers from "reorganization."
I think I know which choice the pols will make.
Yikes.
The NYT is on the story.
Chapter 8 Prospects
Yes, but in which direction?
At least in the short run, a Federal default - inability or refusal to redeem its bonds or pay its bills - could be deflationary rather than inflationary. It would freeze or reduce the amount of dollars in circulation and could cause the value of these dollars to stabilize or even rise, since they would continue to be needed for everyday personal and commercial transactions within the U.S. and abroad.
Most of the "legal tender" dollars circulating today are issued by the Federal Reserve, and most of these are backed by U.S. Treasury bonds. If the new Congress refuses to raise the debt limit ceiling this Spring - a distinct possibility - the U.S. will be unable to increase the supply of Treasury bonds, and consequently the Federal Reserve will be unable to increase the amount of circulating money.
If it is not allowed to borrow additional money, the Federal government will sooner or later be forced to delay or deny redemption of its existing bonds. This may cause the value of the bonds to decline, but it will not necessarily impair the value of actual spendable dollars if the supply of these is not increased.
If government gridlock brings U.S. money creation to an abrupt halt, a wave of deflation could result, which would be bearish for the price of gold until the issue is resolved one way or the other.
My Adolph A. Weinman signature
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<< <i>When firemen get laid off, they might need to sell their gold to pay their living expenses. >>
Thank you for making it public exactly what an idiot you are.
I'm sure you'll be OK. Your financial future is in the very capable hands of honest Bill Daley and will soon be transferred to the wise stewardship of the honorable Rahm Emanuel.
I don't wish you any misfortune; however, you're delusional if you think your job is ironclad safe.
<< <i>There are a lot of houses in Chicago where you can stand in the gangway between two of them and touch both houses at the same time. We also have the tallest building in North America, The Sear Tower. You want to grab a hose and fight a fire on the 98th floor?
TD >>
Sadly, that once great retailer of mostly American made goods appears like it's just gasping for air whenever we go there. Amazing it's even open for business and I used to really like Sears.
The building isn't Sears anymore either and foreign owned:
Willis Tower
Coin's for sale/trade.
Tom Pilitowski
US Rare Coin Investments
800-624-1870
<< <i>
<< <i>There are a lot of houses in Chicago where you can stand in the gangway between two of them and touch both houses at the same time. We also have the tallest building in North America, The Sear Tower. You want to grab a hose and fight a fire on the 98th floor?
TD >>
Sadly, that once great retailer of mostly American made goods appears like it's just gasping for air whenever we go there. Amazing it's even open for business and I used to really like Sears.
The building isn't Sears anymore either and foreign owned:
Willis Tower >>
They can call it whatever they want. I will call it The Sears Tower.
Many years ago City National Bank bought one of the landmark buildings in downtown Detroit, the Penobscot Building (which was the tallest building in town from the late '20's until 1970 or so) and renamed it the "CNB Tower." They even put up giant signs at the top with "CNB" on all four sides.
The local joke was "Hey! What Canadian radio station is advertising on The Penobscot Building???"
<< <i>
<< <i>"...BTW There is nothing in the US Constitution that allows a State to file BK,..." >>
///////////////////////////
Congress could legislate a "Chapter 8" BK.
Provided the statute did NOT include provisions for "involuntary bankruptcy"
proceedings, there would be NO constitutional impairment.
The qualm is that state sovereignty could be encroached by the meddling; it
would NOT, if the state could NOT be forced to seek BK protection.
It would take a rightwing govt to make the MUCH needed legislation happen. >>
Article 1 Section 10:
No state shall pass any Law impairing the Obligation of Contracts.
And this means the contractual pension obligations. I just dont see how a state can get around the United States constitution. >>
State governments are just a wanna be federal government except most of them don't have anyone smart enough to keep 'em afloat. They are too divided by their short sighted legislators. States should be allowed to fail but unfortunately they are too big to fail (ie their economies are too important as a federal tax base). The pensioners might get screwed in the end but the states will get bailed out and their inability to take care of their own will be passed on as a national burden.
The states are already in violation of section 10 of Article 1 by not allowing gold and silver coin to be the only payments for debt. Not adhering to the Obligation of Contracts would only be a continuation in that trend.
I'm confident in gold. RR, has been talking like bull run is history this week? Of course I may be misreading his comments???
I'll admit I'm flustered with all the comments since last week............???
Yes, I was suggesting at least a short term setback in light of the fact gold and silver weren't able to achieve traction despite weakness in the dollar took since early December and especially with the significant drop over the past 2 weeks (81.6 to 78.0). With many other commodities and metals doing much better it would seem the banksters were lending an extra fist to gold. Now with options expiration right around the corner next Wendesday, that's always been a convenient time to accelerate the beating, esp. when gold has already been weakened. The gold to silver liquidity ratio turned it's momentum upward back in late November/early December which was an early warning sign of the PM's price trend changing. GSR has now achieved some strength that it hasn't shown since last summer and is providing additional resistance against gold and silver prices. The last time the dollar and gold fell in unison was back in the summer for about 2 months.
roadrunner
TD
<< <i>The states are already in violation of section 10 of Article 1 by not allowing gold and silver coin to be the only payments for debt. Not adhering to the Obligation of Contracts would only be a continuation in that trend. >>
////////////////
Article 1 Section 10
No State shall enter into any Treaty, Alliance, or Confederation; grant Letters of Marque and Reprisal; coin Money; emit Bills of Credit; make any Thing but gold and silver Coin a Tender in Payment of Debts; pass any Bill of Attainder, ex post facto Law, or Law impairing the Obligation of Contracts, or grant any Title of Nobility.
"Make" means to "establish as a method of payment."
The Federal govt is not prohibited from "establishing" any
method of payment. The states merely permit Fed paper-money
to circulate in commerce.
Likewise, BK statutes are Federal; state exemptions are allowed,
in part, as elements of the states' rights to implement rules/regs
that define the relationships between debtors and creditors.
Article 1 Section 8
The Congress shall have power to....:...establish...uniform laws on the subject of bankruptcies throughout the United States;
If BK is an "impairment" to contracts, it is contemplated by the
Constitution. Further, the risk of such "impairment" is priced into
the value of ALL contracts upon their making.
<< <i>
<< <i>There are a lot of houses in Chicago where you can stand in the gangway between two of them and touch both houses at the same time. We also have the tallest building in North America, The Sear Tower. You want to grab a hose and fight a fire on the 98th floor?
TD >>
Sadly, that once great retailer of mostly American made goods appears like it's just gasping for air whenever we go there. Amazing it's even open for business and I used to really like Sears.
The building isn't Sears anymore either and foreign owned:
Willis Tower >>
We recently bought a gas range from Sears after having not dealt with them in years. I was just informed by a robot call that we are getting a delivery on Monday, this will be the third range they have brought. I guess the service guy couldn't fix the problem on the second one. I say guess because he told us he would call us on Friday, never called, this comedy of errors goes on and on. We had no stove for 10 days at one point. If they put half the energy they spend on automated calls asking us how we like Sears into getting a product to us that is either not damaged or doesn't work right, they might benefit. F"""" Sears, they should go under.
I don't think that the pensioners will get screwed in the way that you might think. I agree that the states will get bailed out, and the template is already in place - the Too Big To Fail excuse is exactly why when it comes to inflation and the total collapse of the dollar, you ain't seen nothing yet.
I don't care how weak gold gets. Math doesn't lie.
2+2=4, even now.
I knew it would happen.
The big bailouts may be over.
My Adolph A. Weinman signature
The big bailouts may be over.
Let's see what happens with Kalifornia and Illinois. They're big on socialism and need big bailouts.
I knew it would happen.