"As collectors die, the key-dates that aren't rare will drop in value."
TheLiberator
Posts: 1,023 ✭✭✭
That sentiment was espoused to me by a dealer on the floor at fun and I wanted to know your thoughts on the matter. We were talking about how coins like the 09-s-vdb aren't rare, but they are popular because of demand while a much scarcer coin might command far less money because of lack of demand. He was basically saying "A certain generation looked for these coins in circulation, and they became famous. But as the collectors who remember those dates die out, the TRUE value will show up in actual rarity."
I tend to agree but what do you guys think? Will the level of fame/promotion/demand last on non-rare, highly sought after coins such as the 16-d merc and 09s vdb? Or, will they begin to fade int he background and less popular more more scarce coins come to the forefront? Will series with lower mintages start seeing more demand because of the desire for true scarcity/rarity? Proof coins of several series with mintages in the several hundreds to a few thousands come to mind. I can't BELIEVE how cheap some of them are compared to their famous, less-rare key-dae cousins.
I tend to agree but what do you guys think? Will the level of fame/promotion/demand last on non-rare, highly sought after coins such as the 16-d merc and 09s vdb? Or, will they begin to fade int he background and less popular more more scarce coins come to the forefront? Will series with lower mintages start seeing more demand because of the desire for true scarcity/rarity? Proof coins of several series with mintages in the several hundreds to a few thousands come to mind. I can't BELIEVE how cheap some of them are compared to their famous, less-rare key-dae cousins.
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Marilyn Monroe, Willy Mays and the Beatles won't be ignored by future generations just because they weren't alive at the same time. The work of some artists became valuable only after they were gone.
It's a little haughty of older collectors to think they have such impact. Kind of like people blaming the human race for global warming.
Lance.
After looking at the Barbers in one dealer's case, I shifted to the walkers. He had his coins stacked in 2x2's. Assuming like the barbers there were different dates in each stack, I was surprised when the first group were all composed of single date stacks. 16S, 38D, and the 1919 trio, all in low grade. I asked why so many....he said he has been buying up sets for silver, punching these dates out (and the occasional 1921 coin), and sending the rest to melt. He said he had two more rolls of 38D halves at home. I saw similar stacks of 38D's in other cases. I'll go out on a limb and say that the market will never come close to absorbing all the circ low grade 38D's available, and the price will drop. And I'm guessing there are a lot of 'low mintage but fairly common' coins in the collector series like this around.
Not even 1893S dollars or 1911D quarter eagles turned us on
For me, the goal was always pre 1808 copper and silver, and someday, if I worked really hard, early gold
I'm glad all that money is chasing "popular" R1 moderns
Liberty: Parent of Science & Industry
I believe the spread between bid and ask is going to increase as time goes on. There seems to be a pattern developing where technology is taking over the hobby. Secure plus holders, coin sniffers. Then the phasing out of B&Ms and consolidation of auction houses. Emphasis being placed on high end examples of coins in general. The result of all this, I believe, is that coin prices for scarce coins like the '09 S VDB and '16-D will remain high but if the average collector wants to sell, unless he has condition census grade coins, he will get nothing of any consequence for his collection.
Hoarding of "key" and "semi-key" dates has been going on for at least twenty-five years. As the hoarders die off (from my observation, many of the hoarders are quite old already) these hoards will find their way to market. The hoards will have to be absorbed by a declining collector population.
Supply will exceed demand for most US "key" and "semi-key" coins, especially those of the late 19th and all of the 20th century, because their rarity has been greatly overstated. Most "key" and "semi-key" US 20th century coins are actually quite common. Survival rates are very high, though many are well worn, since they were removed from circulation in the 1950's or early 1960's.
My own personal experience was that 1962-3 were the last years when any real chance of finding "key" or "semi-key" coins in circulation existed. By 1964, the peak of the coin boom of that era, the game was over. (The great coin boom of that era came to a crashing, and I mean crashing, end in May of 1964.)
<< <i>Some of us (mid-40s) collectors never dreamed about 09svdbs, 22plains and 55 DDs, or 16Ds, or the like.
Not even 1893S dollars or 1911D quarter eagles turned us on
For me, the goal was always pre 1808 copper and silver, and someday, if I worked really hard, early gold
I'm glad all that money is chasing "popular" R1 moderns >>
I agree with you 100%! I cant imagine paying $2k+ for a SVDB when I can have a nice early half or dollar for that amount!
PCGS Registries
Box of 20
SeaEagleCoins: 11/14/54-4/5/12. Miss you Larry!
<< <i>you shouldn't be wasting your time in coin forums, though, it's nice to see you keeping up with the open ended forum posts SOMEplace. >>
To be sure Hyp, there are very specific reasons I am not posting over there right now and it has less to do with time management than I alluded to. I'll be back when I can stomach it.
At any rate, back to the topic at hand, I think I may end up going for some really early pieces in lower grades pretty soon. The more I look around at clones of the same coin everywhere, the more I am beginning to want to focus on true rarity. At my budget, that means getting into some lower graded material, but that is ok.
Still though...I would love that 16-d merc and that 09s VDB...I won't lie! Hahahah!
<< <i>My opinion:
Hoarding of "key" and "semi-key" dates has been going on for at least twenty-five years. As the hoarders die off (from my observation, many of the hoarders are quite old already) these hoards will find their way to market. The hoards will have to be absorbed by a declining collector population.
Supply will exceed demand for most US "key" and "semi-key" coins, especially those of the late 19th and all of the 20th century, because their rarity has been greatly overstated. Most "key" and "semi-key" US 20th century coins are actually quite common. Survival rates are very high, though many are well worn, since they were removed from circulation in the 1950's or early 1960's.
My own personal experience was that 1962-3 were the last years when any real chance of finding "key" or "semi-key" coins in circulation existed. By 1964, the peak of the coin boom of that era, the game was over. (The great coin boom of that era came to a crashing, and I mean crashing, end in May of 1964.) >>
While I am in general agreement I do not agree with the specifics.
There is great danger that there will not be enough demand in the future to maintain
prices wth all the older coins, but I believe the danger of any specific coin can be easily over-
stated. Certainly something like the '09-S VDB or '37-D three legged buffalo are in danger
of losing their status as must have coins with a new generation but the danger is probably
much lower with the '16 quarter or '16-D dime. The quarter is undoubtedly scarce based
on the numbers of silver quarters melted and the prevalence of the date among "dateless"
quarters combined with its very low mintage. I'm of the opinion that tens of thousands of
genuine raw '16-D dimes exist but most experts believe there are only around 25,000 com-
bined. This coin could be under more pressure if silver prices increase since it will make much
of the set worth close to melt in commonly encountered grades which would rduce its "collect-
ibility".
Most really good coins were gone from circulation even by 1940 and it wasn't until 1942 that
circulating issues really started to be heavily searched. Oh sure, in 1940 there were still lots
of "condition rarities" in circulation like XF '16-S buffalos but there was no longer much chance
of finding scarce dates like the '09-S VDB. The Numismatist published a study done in 1940
several yars back that showed these coins were already gone. The sample was too small to
make firm concluions but it appeared that at least 80% and as much as 98% were gone. The
low mintage combined with the dilution of later large mintages plus the actions of collectors
made finding these highly improbable. By the end of the war the only '09-S VDB's circulating
would have been coins that had been found and inadvertantly respent. Even when I started
in 1957 it was obvious I was much too late for the party. Had I known what was in store in
the future I'd have been going through bags looking for gem rather than looking for good dates.
Despite looking through many rolls the only thing I found was a '50-D nickel which I sold for
a king's ransom; $25. Nothing I found would have much value today and even the '50-D
would be worth a tiny fraction of the price adjusted for inflation. If I had looked for gems then
I might have something today but no one was doing this. Lots of people saved rolls and bags
right up till 1966 but they just saved them as they came. Varieties were still circulating too but
who knew what they were since you had to figure most of them by yourself and interest didn't
begin in these until Spadone's work in about 1963 and it was largely deficient in the identifica-
tion of true die varieties.
I believe we'll have a new generation of collecorts and the hobby will be strong for at least an-
other twenty five years. It may be much different but there will be collectors looking for coins
just as they have for the last couple hundred years. The demand will be more diverse and come
from a more diverse base that includes more women, minorities, and foreigners.
commonly encountered grades could make them less collectible it could also have the exact
opposite effect if lots of people want to keep their silver in a "semi-numismatic" form. Mercs
are an attractive coin and attractive way to own silver since it's easily divisible.
The set could be extremely cheap but the high grades and scarce dates in very high demand.
During the last decade I saw as a dealer how many collectors and speculators would buy nothing but the key dates. Everything else was off the table to for them. This drove the prices to artificially high levels because these people took many coins off the market. and they created an ever rising "bubble"market for these dates.
One concept that has applied since I've been in this hobby is that coins whose prices get too high for the true hard core collectors, not the speculators, are due for an adjustment. I'd say that applys to the prices for popular, but less than rare key date coins.
(I could be wrong.)
<< <i>Interesting thoughts, but I think this same discussion has been around for quite some time (I've seen it on these boards for a few years now.) All I can say is that it hasn't happened yet, and if history is an indication of future events, it probably won't happen at all. The S VDB has been expensive for as long as I have been alive and it has never gone down in price (not really) so I have no reason to believe that it will decrease sharply in value. If the keys decrease in value, it is because the whole set has because fewer people collect the set (currently the second most collected set US coinage.) I should think it would revolve around the set, not around how many people are hording the key dates.
(I could be wrong.) >>
This is the point though. So long as people value the '09-S VDB its place
in the set is protected and it will go up and down with the number of people
who collect the set. But because there are people who hoard this date due
to its "mystique" it becomes highly susceptible to changes not associated
with the popularity of Lincolns. If the new generation can't see the "mystique"
then it becoms just another date subject tothe whims of supply and demand;
the hoards hit the market and there isn't the specific demand for this coin
among those buying lincoln cents.
It will still be the lowest mintage but there are many other dates that are far
tougher in nice condition.
Will the new generation of collectors prefer this date to other equally scarce
dates? If not then the price is likly to fall relative the rest of the set.
Being somewhat readily available doesn't slow down it's allure and appeal. I don't see its value dropping. Do you? Check each addition of the Red Book since 1948 and we all see this statistic doesn't lie.
My point in my first post was that speculators have hoarders have bought this coin and other key dates in quantity without showing any interest in the coins in the rest of the set. After a while people are buying such coins with no interest in the collecting aspects of them are going to run out of "bigger fools." Another way of putting it is speculator interest in these coins exceeds collector set collection interest, which can be recipe for a financial adjustment.
No where did I state the 1909 s VDB is rare or even scarce. In fact, I stated "it is readily available. . ."
Doesn't matter. Your friend with his 400 slabbed circulated 09 s VDB's, nor the fresh roll of mostly red gems that was recently broken up and graded by PCGS and then quickly absorbed into the marketplace, doesn't alter the collectibility or value of this coin.
So since there will be the same number (or less) coins on the market and more collectors over time, those "key dates that aren't rare" will become increasingly more rare, and more expensive.
the 09-s vdb just had a huge hoard found of them so they will be dropping. other greats like the 16-d I dont think are overpriced as much. Try finding a 16-d in vf and above. Then compare with finding ms 09-s'. the 16-d is much more tough.
You could instead travel to Barstow, California and visit the world's largest thermometer, yet it wouldn't be as memorable or enjoyable let alone satisfying.
The 1909 s VDB is one of the coin collectors top vacation destinations.
<< <i>Some yes some no.
the 09-s vdb just had a huge hoard found of them so they will be dropping. other greats like the 16-d I dont think are overpriced as much. Try finding a 16-d in vf and above. Then compare with finding ms 09-s'. the 16-d is much more tough. >>
I have always refrained from purchasing one of these coins because i knew how readly and not rare it was. I also know of it's popularity and the fact i have heard it's even been on the cover of time magazine. If such a hoard has been found and prices drop I may finally end up purchasing one. I agree though i don't see the 16-D going down in price and i don't think it's comparable to the SVDB.
That said, I still actively buy very nice P-VDBs. They're a great bargain when quality is your only concern.
Empty Nest Collection
Matt’s Mattes
It will take many, many, many generations of new collectors (if at all) to undo what has become a focal point in collecting US Coinage. It does not matter how many there are or how much they cost. Folks simply want them and are willing to pay the current market price for them because of their historical impact on the collecting community.
A few posts back someone mentioned a dealer that had over 400 09-SVDB's. So what? 484,000 were made and they were distributed in rolls and bags. I believe that if a $50 bag of these showed up someday, and all were graded, it would still have little impact on the relative prices simply because the coin holds a "special" spot in the "mind" of current collectors.
Until the 09-SVDB can be replaced by another in terms of "relative rarity", it will always hold the too spot and ALWAYS command premiums far and above other coins of the series regardless of how tough they are to locate in high grade. No other coin in the Lincoln series can boast of such a low mintage and only until another regular circulating production version comes along with a published mintage of only 400,000, will the 09-SVDB be unseated.
The same is true for the 16-D and it just does not matter what generation of collector you refer to.
The name is LEE!
Is coin collecting changing from series collection (by date/mm) to type collecting?
Are the numbers of coin collectors shrinking?
<< <i>I think of the 1909 s VDB as I do a trip to Hawaii for a week long vacation. Airfare and hotel rooms are easily obtainable yet remain somewhat expensive. Why? Because it is a top vacation destination. It is desirable. It is sought after.
You could instead travel to Barstow, California and visit the world's largest thermometer, yet it wouldn't be as memorable or enjoyable let alone satisfying.
The 1909 s VDB is one of the coin collectors top vacation destinations. >>
Who ever imagined Vietnam would ever be a popular vacation destination...
<< <i>The key coins mentioned so far all represent the backbone of coin collecting's heritage and even though they are all readily available, I do not believe for a second that future collectors will treat them any differently, primarily BECAUSE of their Heritage.
It will take many, many, many generations of new collectors (if at all) to undo what has become a focal point in collecting US Coinage. It does not matter how many there are or how much they cost. Folks simply want them and are willing to pay the current market price for them because of their historical impact on the collecting community.
A few posts back someone mentioned a dealer that had over 400 09-SVDB's. So what? 484,000 were made and they were distributed in rolls and bags. I believe that if a $50 bag of these showed up someday, and all were graded, it would still have little impact on the relative prices simply because the coin holds a "special" spot in the "mind" of current collectors.
Until the 09-SVDB can be replaced by another in terms of "relative rarity", it will always hold the too spot and ALWAYS command premiums far and above other coins of the series regardless of how tough they are to locate in high grade. No other coin in the Lincoln series can boast of such a low mintage and only until another regular circulating production version comes along with a published mintage of only 400,000, will the 09-SVDB be unseated.
The same is true for the 16-D and it just does not matter what generation of collector you refer to. >>
19Lyds,
Excellent commentary and I doubt that anyone could have said it better.
<< <i>Two other ways to put this question:
Is coin collecting changing from series collection (by date/mm) to type collecting?
Are the numbers of coin collectors shrinking? >>
Yes. This is a point often raised by Ericj96. It's likely that type collecting
will become more prominent with the newer generation.
Most changes can't be predicted but this one can and will work against key
date collecting to some extent.
Cladking, I was hoping for an opinion from ericj96, too. Coincidentally, I have been wondering if he is the author of the "Modern Commemorative Coins" book I just bought?
<< <i>I think of the 1909 s VDB as I do a trip to Hawaii for a week long vacation. Airfare and hotel rooms are easily obtainable yet remain somewhat expensive. Why? Because it is a top vacation destination. It is desirable. It is sought after.
You could instead travel to Barstow, California and visit the world's largest thermometer, yet it wouldn't be as memorable or enjoyable let alone satisfying.
The 1909 s VDB is one of the coin collectors top vacation destinations. >>
How funny, but isnt the worlds largest thermometer in Baker
EAC 6024
<< <i>
Cladking, I was hoping for an opinion from ericj96, too. Coincidentally, I have been wondering if he is the author of the "Modern Commemorative Coins" book I just bought? >>
I confess I haven't kept up with this thread but this is the author.
I do try to read all his other posts.
I live on a cul-de-sac and we have an annual July 4th party. Last year, for some reason, the conversation turned to coins. I was VERY careful (in a public setting) but in a very controlled environment the subject of the S-VDB came up with a variety of neighbors who were non-collectors, but ALL knew of the rarity of the coin. I disclosed I had one and rapidly became the envy of the non-collecting (!!!) neighborhood. When average hackers who have no numismatic knowledge revere the coin . . . it is a good one to have.
Suffice it to say . . . I am glad I have mine. I am not worried in the slightest that the coin is 'overvalued' or 'overhyped'.
Collect your R-4 Bust Halves that no one really gets worked up over besides the true purist. I can sell my S-VDB to a NEIGHBOR for 4x what I paid.
Simple . . . but true. Reality doesn't lie.
Drunner
I dunno. I personally see the hobby as mirroring the economy: The gulf between the rich and the poor (or the dreck and the premium in coins) will grow wider and wider. Someone mentioned the art market and I think that may be a great parallel. Also, I do believe the shift from date to type is coming if it hasn't already arrived. I believe my generation is already a part of that. Why in the world do I want 50 examples of the same coin??? It made sense as a child when I collected stuff out of circulation, but as an adult with real money to spend and a real budget, date collecting doesn't make much sense for me.
Now with all of that being said, I still think promoted non-rarities will have their place fro quite awhile.
<< <i>I believe that if a $50 bag of these showed up someday, and all were graded, it would still have little impact on the relative prices simply because the coin holds a "special" spot in the "mind" of current collectors. >>
I agree, I bet if there was a bag of them being pieced out the market would gobble it up. It might lower the price a bit temporarily but by no means ruin it.
"Seu cabra da peste,
"Sou Mangueira......."
Then again, the population as a whole is much larger now than it was in the golden years of picking SVDBs from circulation, and I wonder if there aren't more collectors than there used to be, even if they represent a smaller percentage of the population as a whole?
PS- it doesn't really matter, if the doom-and-gloomer History Channel crazies are right. When the Mayan calendar runs out next December, we're ALL dead, and coins will be worthless, anyway. So I guess we've only got what, 23 months left? Enjoy!
<< <i>Gentlemen (and Ladies) . .
I live on a cul-de-sac and we have an annual July 4th party. Last year, for some reason, the conversation turned to coins. I was VERY careful (in a public setting) but in a very controlled environment the subject of the S-VDB came up with a variety of neighbors who were non-collectors, but ALL knew of the rarity of the coin. I disclosed I had one and rapidly became the envy of the non-collecting (!!!) neighborhood. When average hackers who have no numismatic knowledge revere the coin . . . it is a good one to have.
Suffice it to say . . . I am glad I have mine. I am not worried in the slightest that the coin is 'overvalued' or 'overhyped'.
Collect your R-4 Bust Halves that no one really gets worked up over besides the true purist. I can sell my S-VDB to a NEIGHBOR for 4x what I paid.
Simple . . . but true. Reality doesn't lie.
Drunner >>
OMG!
What you have said and related, simply nails the subject matter of the thread.
The name is LEE!
<< <i>Wow! This has turned into a great thread! I might add as the OP that I am 34 next month and I don't know any collectors my age other than on the internet. In fact, I worry about collectibles in general when I look at my 14 year old nephew's generation. >>
Yes, this is a great thread - thanks for initiating it. There have been other threads on demographics in the hobby before. I would add here that there were not many young collectors 25+ years ago when I started going to shows and getting more serious. I don't think there are any less young collectors today. If you had been at FUN, you would have seen the Stone, Dennis88, and Coinkid trio running around cherrypicking dealers; their combined age is probably < 60, and they know their stuff. The average age of the dealers at FUN I would guess at ~50.....quite a few people in their 30's and 40's working at tables. I would also add that there seems to be more women involved in coins than 25 years ago, seriously involved, not just watching the table while hubby is out like in the old days. So I'm not ready to ring the death knell for the hobby just yet, though I have no doubt it will continue to evolve.