Looks like the dollar is still back testing the long term uptrend line. Made 2 unsuccessful attempts so far to get back above it. In a rising triangle right now so either option still seems to have merit. With the dollar basically on an 10-12 quarter cycle between major bottoms, there's a good chance it has already done that in May.
Dollar having a huge day today testing the top of the 4 month trading range. These tight ranges are usually a precursor to a much larger move. Sometimes it is a continuation of the previos trend, other times is marks the beginning of a new trend.
Looks to be a wild couple of months forthcoming. One should study the charts of FXA, FXC, FXS, FXY, FXF, and most importantly, FXE.
Where does one go to see the updated chart? The only chart I run across is on the original post on page 1 and it doesn't reflect any of 2011 pricing. ????
Oops....nevermind. Been "following" this thread all year not knowing that the charts were being stacked on page 1.
Dollar index moving back up into the broken wedge. Not a great sign for the dollar bears.
Last month I mentioned looking at the charts of FXA, FXC, FXS, FXF, FXE, FXY. Since then (Sept 6) here is their performance.
FXA 105 to 96--down 8.6% FXC 100 to 95--down 5% FXS 155 to 145--down 6.5% FXF 115 to 108--down 6% FXE 140 to 132--down 5.7% FXY 127 to 128.70--UP 1.3% But I am becoming increasingly nervous about this one. Has a rising wedge and momos are not confirming this strength. Not ready to short it yet, but is on watch list.
The emerging market currencies of Brazil, Russia, India, Poland have been destroyed in the last month.
Market destruction underway. Be in cash or be short on the markets.
"Interest rates, the price of money, are the most important market. And, perversely, they’re the market that’s most manipulated by the Fed." - Doug Casey
<< <i>Dollar index moving back up into the broken wedge. Not a great sign for the dollar bears.
Last month I mentioned looking at the charts of FXA, FXC, FXS, FXF, FXE, FXY. Since then (Sept 6) here is their performance.
FXA 105 to 96--down 8.6% FXC 100 to 95--down 5% FXS 155 to 145--down 6.5% FXF 115 to 108--down 6% FXE 140 to 132--down 5.7% FXY 127 to 128.70--UP 1.3% But I am becoming increasingly nervous about this one. Has a rising wedge and momos are not confirming this strength. Not ready to short it yet, but is on watch list.
The emerging market currencies of Brazil, Russia, India, Poland have been destroyed in the last month. >>
I haven't been in Brazil in a month. The last time I was here I got 1.47 Reis per buck. Today I got 1.71! Maybe now we can go to a nice restaurant in town instead of going to the favelas.
Taken into perspective, gold was around $1,400-$1,450 in April. In July & August, the metals got a little ahead of themselves. Look at what the gold chart was doing while this chart was dropping below the bottom wedge line.
This dollar chart with the price breaking back into your rising wedge looks to me like the tail-end of a correction. I'm sure that I am over-simplifying, but we all know why the dollar is "strong" right now - how's Europe doing, by the way? I can't seem to keep up with the latest plot changes in that drama.
Q: Are You Printing Money? Bernanke: Not Literally
<< <i>Even if it breaks 92, it doesn't look like a major trend reversal to me. It looks more like a setup for another major downturn. >>
Thats why you do what you do and I do what I do.
Lets just hope and pray it doesnt break 92. At this point I dont think that likely as it would only really be the 3rd point on the downtrend. If it does test 92 on this run--still a LONG LONG way off, then I would expect a pullback into the mid-80s before another attempt. But this would require more than a years time to evolve and thats just way too much time to consider.
Comments
Knowledge is the enemy of fear
option still seems to have merit. With the dollar basically on an 10-12 quarter cycle between major bottoms, there's a good chance it has already done that in May.
roadrunner
Sideways action the last 3 months.
Looks like thats what happened(ing)........ I wouldnt be surprised to see the Franc make a "silveresc(sp)" type of move.
Knowledge is the enemy of fear
Dollar having a huge day today testing the top of the 4 month trading range. These tight ranges are usually a precursor to a much larger move. Sometimes it is a continuation of the previos trend, other times is marks the beginning of a new trend.
Looks to be a wild couple of months forthcoming. One should study the charts of FXA, FXC, FXS, FXY, FXF, and most importantly, FXE.
Knowledge is the enemy of fear
Oops....nevermind. Been "following" this thread all year not knowing that the charts were being stacked on page 1.
roadrunner
Thank You for doing this
Terry
Last month I mentioned looking at the charts of FXA, FXC, FXS, FXF, FXE, FXY. Since then (Sept 6) here is their performance.
FXA 105 to 96--down 8.6%
FXC 100 to 95--down 5%
FXS 155 to 145--down 6.5%
FXF 115 to 108--down 6%
FXE 140 to 132--down 5.7%
FXY 127 to 128.70--UP 1.3% But I am becoming increasingly nervous about this one. Has a rising wedge and momos are not confirming this strength. Not ready to short it yet, but is on watch list.
The emerging market currencies of Brazil, Russia, India, Poland have been destroyed in the last month.
Knowledge is the enemy of fear
"Interest rates, the price of money, are the most important market. And, perversely, they’re the market that’s most manipulated by the Fed." - Doug Casey
<< <i>Dollar index moving back up into the broken wedge. Not a great sign for the dollar bears.
Last month I mentioned looking at the charts of FXA, FXC, FXS, FXF, FXE, FXY. Since then (Sept 6) here is their performance.
FXA 105 to 96--down 8.6%
FXC 100 to 95--down 5%
FXS 155 to 145--down 6.5%
FXF 115 to 108--down 6%
FXE 140 to 132--down 5.7%
FXY 127 to 128.70--UP 1.3% But I am becoming increasingly nervous about this one. Has a rising wedge and momos are not confirming this strength. Not ready to short it yet, but is on watch list.
The emerging market currencies of Brazil, Russia, India, Poland have been destroyed in the last month. >>
I haven't been in Brazil in a month. The last time I was here I got 1.47 Reis per buck. Today I got 1.71! Maybe now we can go to a nice restaurant in town instead of going to the favelas.
i've lost that inflation feeling
<< <i>thanks for keeping this going
i've lost that inflation feeling
"57, you can be my wingman any day."
This dollar chart with the price breaking back into your rising wedge looks to me like the tail-end of a correction. I'm sure that I am over-simplifying, but we all know why the dollar is "strong" right now - how's Europe doing, by the way? I can't seem to keep up with the latest plot changes in that drama.
I knew it would happen.
That is exactly what I am afraid of. That it is the tail end of this...
Obviously still in a downtrend and MAJOR resistance at 92, but there may not be much to keep the dollar from getting to 92.
Knowledge is the enemy of fear
I knew it would happen.
<< <i>Even if it breaks 92, it doesn't look like a major trend reversal to me. It looks more like a setup for another major downturn. >>
Thats why you do what you do and I do what I do.
Lets just hope and pray it doesnt break 92. At this point I dont think that likely as it would only really be the 3rd point on the downtrend. If it does test 92 on this run--still a LONG LONG way off, then I would expect a pullback into the mid-80s before another attempt. But this would require more than a years time to evolve and thats just way too much time to consider.
Knowledge is the enemy of fear
Knowledge is the enemy of fear
Knowledge is the enemy of fear
<< <i>A little late in updating, but her she is--a thing of beauty.
thanks, Dave I was looking for you (err, i mean the thread) a few days ago and forgot all about it until now.
<< <i>Even if it breaks 92, it doesn't look like a major trend reversal to me. It looks more like a setup for another major downturn. >>
Good call so far.