This will be the most important chart of 2011--------Updated to December
cohodk
Posts: 19,101 ✭✭✭✭✭
Lets see how it evolves. Someone please remind me to update it at the beginning of every month.
Excuses are tools of the ignorant
Knowledge is the enemy of fear
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You think we're gonna see a Krakatoa event?
I knew it would happen.
<< <i>Egads! Maybe so, Dave. Maybe so.....
You think we're gonna see a Krakatoa event? >>
Maybe the Mayans are right.
Knowledge is the enemy of fear
<< <i>
<< <i>Egads! Maybe so, Dave. Maybe so.....
You think we're gonna see a Krakatoa event? >>
Maybe the Mayans are right.
I was about to say that it could be the most important chart of the next two years if you protract the upper and lower boundaries. It may take that long before the fat lady sings.
<< <i>
<< <i>
<< <i>Egads! Maybe so, Dave. Maybe so.....
You think we're gonna see a Krakatoa event? >>
Maybe the Mayans are right.
I was about to say that it could be the most important chart of the next two years if you protract the upper and lower boundaries. It may take that long before the fat lady sings. >>
Possibly. By the end of the 2011 the trendlines will only be about 6 points wide. Typically these wedge formations break when about 75-80% complete. Given that the dollar has averaged 14 points moves the last 2 years, this pattern probably breaks in the latter 1/2 of 2011. So what are the consequences for 2012---big election year.
Knowledge is the enemy of fear
yes.
Liberty: Parent of Science & Industry
<< <i>So when the wedge pattern breaks.....does that mean up or down for the dollar?
yes. >>
MJ
Fellas, leave the tight pants to the ladies. If I can count the coins in your pockets you better use them to call a tailor. Stay thirsty my friends......
roadrunner
very interesting...
2 major fiat currencies working back and forth against each other, but in essence both just falling at different rates.
true enough...
An upward price objective for that triangle could be around 100. If that happened I'd still expect gold to remain within 10% of current levels.
My bad. Darn, I thought I was looking at a dollar/gold chart! This is just currency stuff!!!!
jmski, you fool. learn to pay attention! you are not smart enough to trade currencies!!!!! Ack.
I knew it would happen.
Yup, charts of air vs air. The dollar to gold chart has been headed down for the last 2 yrs. It looks nothing like the USDX chart with it's "strong" rebounds. But the sheepled public don't ever look at a dollar to gold chart....only the dollar chart, if they even look at one.
roadrunner
jmski, you for got to remind me on the 1st.
Knowledge is the enemy of fear
Sorry, I'm busy trying to figure out how to make my 10,000th post memorable, but I am starting from scratch as this is #9,999.
I knew it would happen.
Make a prediction.........
<< <i>jmski, you for got to remind me on the 1st.
Sorry, I'm busy trying to figure out how to make my 10,000th post memorable, but I am starting from scratch as this is #9,999.
I think you should start a thread with nothing in the title and nothing in the original post and just see where it ends.
Knowledge is the enemy of fear
Looks like it's holding strong in the mid-upper 70's.
Too many positive BST transactions with too many members to list.
"Interest rates, the price of money, are the most important market. And, perversely, they’re the market that’s most manipulated by the Fed." - Doug Casey
<< <i>Sorry c, but I gotta keep an eye on this one for the moment:
That bubble popped just one month later.
Knowledge is the enemy of fear
"Interest rates, the price of money, are the most important market. And, perversely, they’re the market that’s most manipulated by the Fed." - Doug Casey
<< <i>But it's building again and we all know that it took a financial meltdown in 2008 to pop the last one. You will also see a continued inverse relationship between the dollar and oil. Oil now threatens to drive the dollar down at a much faster pace. >>
I would disagree that the financial crisis popped the oil bubble. It certainly enhanced the subsequent downward move though.
Knowledge is the enemy of fear
<< <i>I would disagree that the financial crisis popped the oil bubble. It certainly enhanced the subsequent downward move though. >>
Nothing personal, but are you quoting Ben Bernake?
"Interest rates, the price of money, are the most important market. And, perversely, they’re the market that’s most manipulated by the Fed." - Doug Casey
Knowledge is the enemy of fear
I knew it would happen.
I knew it would happen.
<< <i>
<< <i>I would disagree that the financial crisis popped the oil bubble. It certainly enhanced the subsequent downward move though. >>
Nothing personal, but are you quoting Ben Bernake? >>
The financial crisis started in March 2008--if not earlier-- with the failure of Bear Stearns. Oil was about $100 in March. It went up another 50% by early July. Global economies were already starting to slow in the Spring of 2008 and the ECB was clueless. They raised rates on July 3, 2008 and the Euro and oil peaked just 1 week later. The ECB rate hike was completely unnecessary and foolhardy as I wrote in the 2008 Econ thread at the time. Portugal is asking for help right now, due in large part to this rate hike. If rates are gonna be higher in Germany, with a "somewhat" fiscally sound economy, how friggin high they gonna be in Portugal? And now the ECB is bringing down the hammer on the last nail of Spain's coffin with their 20% unemployment.
Tomorrow they will most likely raise rates again. Another stupid move. But the USA is not raising rates, which is also stupid. But this is all a coordinated effort to weaken-or keep weak-- the US dollar thus preventing a global depression. Eventually the Euro will collapse, as it did in 2008, and we all know how pleasant that was.
Knowledge is the enemy of fear
<< <i>Dave, you're skeering me. >>
I dont think its time ti throw in the towel just yet. It could be a bit early in the pattern to breakdown and my momo indicator may be starting to turn up. The pattern could become a "bear trap", just as the breakout higher in the YEN turned out to be a "bull trap".
Knowledge is the enemy of fear
I knew it would happen.
The dollar breaking down on Dave's chart is no surprise. Some were banking on it
MJ
Fellas, leave the tight pants to the ladies. If I can count the coins in your pockets you better use them to call a tailor. Stay thirsty my friends......
<< <i>Look at the Aussie Dollah, Mate!!! >>
Don't forget about the Cando either, eh?
MJ
Fellas, leave the tight pants to the ladies. If I can count the coins in your pockets you better use them to call a tailor. Stay thirsty my friends......
Fellas, leave the tight pants to the ladies. If I can count the coins in your pockets you better use them to call a tailor. Stay thirsty my friends......
I knew it would happen.
roadrunner
A chart of the dollar against silver might be equally important.
My Adolph A. Weinman signature
<< <i>The 2010 H&S formation price objective of 0.71 now appears to be the primary target (peak at 88 with neckline crossing at approx 80). We could hit that in the next 4-6 weeks.
roadrunner >>
So we have 4-6 more weeks of PM surge and stock market surge. After this period it would be time to take a nice holiday during the Summer and come back in the Fall.
roadrunner
A clear break of the wedge. So whats next? There is price support near the 2008 lows of 71-72. It is also not unusual-actually expected-for there to be a retest of the broken uptrend line. In this case, the dollar could rally as high as 77+.
Given the parabolic look of many currencies--Aussie and Canada $$ and Swiss Franc and the fact that my momo indicator is extremely low, I would say probability for some type of consolidation is likely in order.
Other things to watch for are the defensive names in the stock market outperforming growth names and the remarkable strength of treasuries over the last month.
Knowledge is the enemy of fear
I knew it would happen.
<< <i>Updated for May.
A clear break of the wedge. So whats next? There is price support near the 2008 lows of 71-72. It is also not unusual-actually expected-for there to be a retest of the broken uptrend line. In this case, the dollar could rally as high as 77+.
Given the parabolic look of many currencies--Aussie and Canada $$ and Swiss Franc and the fact that my momo indicator is extremely low, I would say probability for some type of consolidation is likely in order.
Other things to watch for are the defensive names in the stock market outperforming growth names and the remarkable strength of treasuries over the last month. >>
Well, dollar rallied up to 76.36. The defensive nature of the market resulted in the first down month for the DOW in 5 months. June historically one of the weakest months and is starting out pretty ugly today.
The Aussie and Candian dollar did consolidate (drop) last month. The Swiss Franc did correct briefly but is now hitting new highs. I believe the Franc could be entering a parabolic blowoff stage as it may have broken above the upper end of the 10 yr uptrend channel. The Swiss Franc is backed up by basically nothing. Switzerland has a GDP about equal to the revenues of Wal-Mart, a tiny military, and has very little agriculture business. Its claim to fame is--the much loved on this board--financial services industry. Its population is less than the greater Chicago metro area.
At least Australia and Canada have a bunch of rocks.
Knowledge is the enemy of fear
<< <i>
<< <i>Updated for May.
A clear break of the wedge. So whats next? There is price support near the 2008 lows of 71-72. It is also not unusual-actually expected-for there to be a retest of the broken uptrend line. In this case, the dollar could rally as high as 77+.
Given the parabolic look of many currencies--Aussie and Canada $$ and Swiss Franc and the fact that my momo indicator is extremely low, I would say probability for some type of consolidation is likely in order.
Other things to watch for are the defensive names in the stock market outperforming growth names and the remarkable strength of treasuries over the last month. >>
Well, dollar rallied up to 76.36. The defensive nature of the market resulted in the first down month for the DOW in 5 months. June historically one of the weakest months and is starting out pretty ugly today.
The Aussie and Candian dollar did consolidate (drop) last month. The Swiss Franc did correct briefly but is now hitting new highs. I believe the Franc could be entering a parabolic blowoff stage as it may have broken above the upper end of the 10 yr uptrend channel. The Swiss Franc is backed up by basically nothing. Switzerland has a GDP about equal to the revenues of Wal-Mart, a tiny military, and has very little agriculture business. Its claim to fame is--the much loved on this board--financial services industry. Its population is less than the greater Chicago metro area.
At least Australia and Canada have a bunch of rocks.
I felt a scud missle sail right over my head.........Yes, I still love my swissy, cando and aussie dollars for all different reasons. The Swiss Franc I like as it's the ultimate anti Euro and flight to safety play. Besides they have great hot chocolate and even hotter women. I like rocks. MJ
Fellas, leave the tight pants to the ladies. If I can count the coins in your pockets you better use them to call a tailor. Stay thirsty my friends......
Come, on, you know it wouldnt be a scud!!
I'll agree its a great anti-Euro play. But it so tiny and volatile, that at these levels, the risk vastly outweighs the rewards. I wouldnt be surprised to see the Franc make a "silveresc(sp)" type of move.
Someday I'll have to tell you my story of trying to cross the Alps from Davos in 20 year old VW golf in the middle of winter.
Knowledge is the enemy of fear
I knew it would happen.
"Interest rates, the price of money, are the most important market. And, perversely, they’re the market that’s most manipulated by the Fed." - Doug Casey