I'm really tempted to sell right now.....
DoubleEagle59
Posts: 8,307 ✭✭✭✭✭
I probably won't go through with it, but I'm so tempted to sell my silver holdings right now.
Of course I have full intention of purchasing them all back when the price drops.
What if it doesn't drop, you say?
Well, I figure how can today's 'modern' all-time high price ($26.40) for silver, be tomorrow's all-time low?
Put another way, it's darn near impossible for the price of silver to never drop below $26.40.
Of course I have full intention of purchasing them all back when the price drops.
What if it doesn't drop, you say?
Well, I figure how can today's 'modern' all-time high price ($26.40) for silver, be tomorrow's all-time low?
Put another way, it's darn near impossible for the price of silver to never drop below $26.40.
"Gold is money, and nothing else" (JP Morgan, 1912)
"“Those who sacrifice liberty for security/safety deserve neither.“(Benjamin Franklin)
"I only golf on days that end in 'Y'" (DE59)
"“Those who sacrifice liberty for security/safety deserve neither.“(Benjamin Franklin)
"I only golf on days that end in 'Y'" (DE59)
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You don't have to sell it all in one fell swoop.
MJ
Fellas, leave the tight pants to the ladies. If I can count the coins in your pockets you better use them to call a tailor. Stay thirsty my friends......
--Severian the Lame
I will turn the green paper into yellow metal!
"having money's not everything and not having it is."
-Kanye West
<< <i>If it's going to keep you awake or bother you or consume your thoughts, by all means sell.
You don't have to sell it all in one fell swoop.
MJ >>
No, it's not keeping me awake nor is it consuming my thoughts.
Selling in stages won't do because I'm looking to buy back everything.
I think we may all agree that we'll definitely see a future silver price that will be less than $26.40.
So why not take advantage of it?
"“Those who sacrifice liberty for security/safety deserve neither.“(Benjamin Franklin)
"I only golf on days that end in 'Y'" (DE59)
"having money's not everything and not having it is."
-Kanye West
<< <i>
<< <i>If it's going to keep you awake or bother you or consume your thoughts, by all means sell.
You don't have to sell it all in one fell swoop.
MJ >>
No, it's not keeping me awake nor is it consuming my thoughts.
Selling in stages won't do because I'm looking to buy back everything.
I think we may all agree that we'll definitely see a future silver price that will be less than $26.40.
So why not take advantage of it? >>
Ah, I get this all the time when dealing with clients. Riddle me this:
1) What price are you going to buy it back at? It it's not less then $23 you probably shouldn't even bother (premium erosion)
2) What if silver never get to your new buy price and turns around only to keeping making new highs? What then?
When people sell to only to try and buy it back cheaper the following things tend to happen:
a) They forget
b) they get greedy and will try to buy it even cheaper then their new buy price and end up missing it all together. I'll wait another day, it might get even cheaper
c) lack of discilpline. It's easier for most to by on the way up then on the way down. It's scary buying deep pull backs for some.
This is what I have encountered throughout my life. MJ
Fellas, leave the tight pants to the ladies. If I can count the coins in your pockets you better use them to call a tailor. Stay thirsty my friends......
<< <i>I sold 1 oz gold today. Buy here, trim there. It's all part of the game. >>
Trimming is VERY good. Who likes a hairy bush anyways. I mean shrub.MJ
Fellas, leave the tight pants to the ladies. If I can count the coins in your pockets you better use them to call a tailor. Stay thirsty my friends......
Check out my current listings: https://ebay.com/sch/khunt/m.html?_ipg=200&_sop=12&_rdc=1
I agree, it will fall below 20, it will fall below 10.
The question becomes though, will that happen prior to 30 an oz. I don't think so. Forget a specific number to sell at. Think more in terms of the big picture. Is it more likely to go up in the foreseeable future, or more likely to go down ? Your answer to that question, should dictate your actions.
What ever you decide, best of luck.
<< <i>Pigs get fed, hogs get slaughtered. Taking profit is never a bad thing - if the profit is useful elsewhere. >>
Germs of truth your statement. However, I will use a real life example to retort. A client bought Apple at $30. He sold @ $75. He took profits. He took those profits and bought other stocks with the net proceeds. He's about even on those other investment after all these years since. Apple is at $300+. Most of my clients are still in Apple. Taking profits is fine but you still have to figure out to do with the proceeds and there is no guarentee you will pick a winner. Who's to say silver or gold isn't just starting to heat up? Just as no one knows if Apple with get to $600. Nobody ever says Apple is in a bubble. It makes gold look meager at times...............Just sayin. MJ
Fellas, leave the tight pants to the ladies. If I can count the coins in your pockets you better use them to call a tailor. Stay thirsty my friends......
"1) What price are you going to buy it back at? It it's not less then $23 you probably shouldn't even bother (premium erosion)"
This is "spot" on. Not to mention selling a boatload of silver MIGHT generate IRS issues to boot. If you had the means to sell your entire holdings at the current melt....tax exempt.....and then the opportunity to buy all of it back at spot + 5%, then it becomes worth the gamble as I agree on your premise that there is no way that within the next year silver's low price will be $26.40.
Assuming you do have a target buyback price of around $22......you would have to sell 1,000 oz in order to gain about 142 extra ounces on the buyback at $22/oz with a 5% premium. And thats disregarding any tax liability that you may incur while moving over $25,000 worth of metal in one swoop!
Thats the obvious upshot. Now the obvious downshot:
Silver breaks through the $30 barrier 3 weeks after you sell it. Its common knowledge that the FED is going to pump 600 billion into the economy, and with a possible additional drop in the real estate market, people in droves turn to silver as a safe haven. In this worst case scenario, yes you have certainly made a profit from your original cost basis, but at the cost of now having nothing but a few pounds of green paper.
Think it over carefully!
HH
1947-P & D; 1948-D; 1949-P & S; 1950-D & S; and 1952-S.
Any help locating any of these OBW rolls would be gratefully appreciated!
Buy here, trim there. It's all part of the game.
I agree.
However, when someone talks about selling their core position in order to buy it back later, that's a 180 reversal from thinking in terms of longterm dollar devaluation trend. When it's someone like DoubleEagle59, then to me it begins to sound like the market is picking up some froth. That doesn't mean he's wrong, but it means that there is a change in psychology.
I don't think we're anywhere near a silver market blowoff, but I surely expect volatility because there are just too many uncertainties in the economy.
I see any tendancies toward trading for quick profits as a sign of financial pressure building on everyone. I expect this to continue and probably to increase.
The economy wasn't dug into a hole overnight, and to date not one iota has changed in terms of debt, derivatives, legislative change, mortgage defaults, the world economy, etc, etc, etc. The politics may have changed, but that remains to be seen. I'm from Missouri, and you have to show me.
A core position has only one purpose and that is to save your bacon from a disastrous set of circumstances. Other than that, this is still America and it is still the Land of Opportunity, Canada not excluded. So, if you think you can make a good buck, let 'her rip!
I knew it would happen.
edited out my dumb comments, as I obviously misread his initial post about the price of silver specifically, not GSR.
When long time precious metals advocates post threads like this, odds favor higher prices. When relative newcomers echo the thoughts about bubble or selling, again, that points to higher prices.
The opposite also holds. When long time advocates link or repost or predict another quick huge percentage up move, that is a warning sign. A stronger warning is when new folks come in, often from the coin forum, asking about where to buy, what to buy, when to buy. When the newbies actually buy at a new high price, and post their buys proudly the red light is flashing.
Again, these are totally anecdotal observations, but this forum is relatively active, and does get new folks, and at times has made some spectacular calls. Anyone recall the recent thread by a long time gold advocate calling for a major top in gold? It turned out to be just before a major liftoff in prices. If the pattern holds, this thread will not mark anywhere near the top, but again, any indicator can and will fail.
Yes, at some point it is likely silver will be below today's price. However, at some point silver is surely going to be above today's price. Using the same logic, wouldn't holding out for a higher price make as much sense as selling to buy back at a lower price? How much higher or lower is the more important question. $1 or $2 lower wouldn't be worth it sell and buy back, what with the trouble of transporting and spreads. So how much lower? And how much higher? If a person could time all the wiggles of the silver market, they wouldn't need to sell physical hoping for 20% lower or whatever, they could trade futures and make that 20% almost every week in the market. And will a person buy when it goes lower. The same logic will hold, that prices will be at some point be lower than today. If silver goes back to $20, wouldn't it be logical to say, at some point it is going to be $18 later on? Why not wait for $18 then?
"Interest rates, the price of money, are the most important market. And, perversely, they’re the market that’s most manipulated by the Fed." - Doug Casey
The second half of this Cramer quote is, "Nobody ever lost money taking a profit.".
Proud recipient of two "You Suck" awards
No, that follows no logical development, sorry. It is just a "guess".
Proud recipient of two "You Suck" awards
I did....sold a couple 100 oz bars back at $21.40 last month. How foolish does that look in hindsight? Thought things were getting frothy and a pullback was "due." Was sure I could probably buy some of those back in cheaper if I desired. And if you're upfront paying capital gains that trims 28% right off the top. Is silver going to fall 28% any time soon to make that worthwhile? GSR had fallen from 68 down to key resistance area of around 57, certainly it was time to go back and retest? Nope, GSR has continued to march down, now at 52+. Corrections are guaranteed....their timing or depth are not. If one has a track record of systematically selling off ounces and buying them back lower, then by all means keep on playing that game if it works for you. To those who pretty much have just accumulated, understand that ounces sold today aren't probably going to be replaced tomorrow unless a major PM's crash occurs.
In the end, $5 today will pale in comparison to $50, $100, $150/oz silver which will occur down the road. Those selling off permanent parts of their holdings will no doubt regret that years from now when $26 silver will seem like a joke.
I don't think we're in 2006-2007, 2008 any more where deep and extended silver sell offs could almost be planned into the equation. JPM and Co. aren't patrolling the markets as they were in those days. The lid is basically completely off now that the 2008 high was taken out. It is different today. The only 2 resistance points left standing are $35 from the post-1980 rebound, and then the all time high itself in the $40-50 range.
roadrunner
<< <i>So why not take advantage of it?
I did....sold a couple 100 oz bars back at $21.40 last month. How foolish does that look in hindsight? Thought things were getting frothy and a pullback was "due." Was sure I could probably buy some of those back in cheaper if I desired. And if you're upfront paying capital gains that trims 28% right off the top. Is silver going to fall 28% any time soon to make that worthwhile? GSR had fallen from 68 down to key resistance area of around 62, certainly it was time to go back and retest? Nope, GSR has continued to march down, now at 52+. Corrections are guaranteed....their timing or depth are not. If one has a track record of systematically selling off ounces and buying them back lower, then by all means keep on playing that game if it works for you. To those like myself who pretty much have just accumulated, understand that ounces sold today aren't probably going to be replaced tomorrow unless a major PM's crash occurs.
In the end, $5 today will pale in comparison to $50, $100, $150/oz silver which will occur down the road. Those selling off permanent parts of their holdings will no doubt regret that years from now when $26 silver will seem like a joke.
I don't think we're in 2006-2007, 2008 any more where deep and extended silver sell offs could almost be planned into the equation. JPM and Co. aren't patrolling the markets as they were in those days. The lid is basically completely off now that the 2008 high was taken out. It is different today. The only 2 resistance points left standing are $35 from the post-1980 rebound, and then the all time high itself in the $40-50 range.
roadrunner >>
All time high shouldn't be used as a resistance point as it was nothing more than a manipulative effort (Hunt Bros.). It was a fluke in the charts.
"Interest rates, the price of money, are the most important market. And, perversely, they’re the market that’s most manipulated by the Fed." - Doug Casey
<< <i>
<< <i>I sold 1 oz gold today. Buy here, trim there. It's all part of the game. >>
Trimming is VERY good. Who likes a hairy bush anyways. I mean shrub.MJ >>
I'm calling hr.
Fred, Las Vegas, NV
<< <i>So why not take advantage of it?
I did....sold a couple 100 oz bars back at $21.40 last month. How foolish does that look in hindsight? Thought things were getting frothy and a pullback was "due." Was sure I could probably buy some of those back in cheaper if I desired. And if you're upfront paying capital gains that trims 28% right off the top. Is silver going to fall 28% any time soon to make that worthwhile? GSR had fallen from 68 down to key resistance area of around 62, certainly it was time to go back and retest? Nope, GSR has continued to march down, now at 52+. Corrections are guaranteed....their timing or depth are not. If one has a track record of systematically selling off ounces and buying them back lower, then by all means keep on playing that game if it works for you. To those like myself who pretty much have just accumulated, understand that ounces sold today aren't probably going to be replaced tomorrow unless a major PM's crash occurs.
In the end, $5 today will pale in comparison to $50, $100, $150/oz silver which will occur down the road. Those selling off permanent parts of their holdings will no doubt regret that years from now when $26 silver will seem like a joke.
I don't think we're in 2006-2007, 2008 any more where deep and extended silver sell offs could almost be planned into the equation. JPM and Co. aren't patrolling the markets as they were in those days. The lid is basically completely off now that the 2008 high was taken out. It is different today. The only 2 resistance points left standing are $35 from the post-1980 rebound, and then the all time high itself in the $40-50 range.
roadrunner >>
Taxes account for only the profit above your cost basis RR. So to say that silver needs to fall by 28% just to "get back to even" isnt entirely accurate......unless you only have receipts showing silver purchases from the 60's......
True enough. The 28% is still a nice chunk removed no matter how it's taken out. And if you factor in buy/sell spreads you're giving up about 1/3 your profit each time you transact...that is assuming you're properly reporting it in the first place. Trades back and forth involving gold and/or silver bullion don't qualify as exemptions. Then again, if you don't have receipts, the IRS will assume you got it as a gift, and hence the 28% full tax on the sold amount. If you don't have receipts in hand by 2012 they will start looking for you when 1099's hit the street.
All time high shouldn't be used as a resistance point as it was nothing more than a manipulative effort (Hunt Bros.). It was a fluke in the charts
No more flukish and manipulated than the $875 gold high which came and went in a matter of hours. I don't think the Hunts had that big an effect. Silver still would have gone to $30+ without the Hunts even being involved. If the Hunts hadn't taken the lead, there would have been others to take their place. They just happened to be poster children because they lost their shirts when the FED changed the trading rules. They by themselves did not make the silver market. Our good buddy Warren Buffet had 120 MILL oz of silver back in the 1990's which was probably even a larger % physical position than what the Hunts had held, yet that didn't send silver soaring to new highs, though it added a couple of bucks per ounce on the price tag. One must remember that the Hunts were playing with silver from 1973-1978 and hadn't had been able to get it above $5. All the fireworks occurred in the last 6-9 months of that run and that was the world market talking, not just the Hunts. That peak number is charted so it will still factor in other people's pysche and trading programs. That $50ish number has stood for 30 yrs as the prime example of PM bullishness and foolishness....a testament to a barbarous relic to warn others to stay away forever. You just can't trust metals, though you can trust paper money. It will be nice to see it go once and for all...so even those 30 yr holders of silver can finally cash out for a non-inflation adjusted "profit."
Here's O'Connor's view on trying to trade this market. Note the last paragraph.
Trading in a parabolic market with QE2 having set sail
roadrunner
With more new buyers continuing to get into pms, the old rules no longer apply. In either direction. You need to be a good money manager. The fundamentals are still on the side of pms, but you had better not ignore what volatility really means. The statistical definition of risk is volatility. Don't overstep. Just my 2 cents.
I knew it would happen.
those who play the paper game well can buy and sell their way to greater fortunes (or mistimed losses). i don't have the savvy, $$$ or the gut to do that.
....BUT I have tallied all my silver and gold bullion, junk, and ASE recently and it is tempting to take some "double ups", yet i'd probably just drop it in 'Vegas, it's always easier to ask for forgiveness than permission...ya know? but there is the 'happy wife, happy life' that i try to live
markets, technology, global this and global that ARE a factor now vs c1980....or is it just a mythical...factual manipulation now???
yes i am hitting the
Worry is the interest you pay on a debt you may not owe.
"Paper money eventually returns to its intrinsic value---zero."----Voltaire
"Everything you say should be true, but not everything true should be said."----Voltaire
57loaded, you just hit the nail on the head. As long as there is no accounting for the off-budget spending, the $ Trillions in unfunded liabilities, the $ Trillions in worthless derivatives that the Fed is soaking up from Fannie & Freddie, and no plan as to how to handle the debt load - we are in uncharted territory without a paddle.
It's bizarre to even think that the dollars we handle every day can be seen as fiction at any time. If you really can't quantify the assets, and you really can't quantify the liabilities - what does it leave you with? Nothing but fantasy stuff, unless you decide to get physical. It's no wonder that the trend is towards commodities, imo.
I knew it would happen.
<< <i>
<< <i>If it's going to keep you awake or bother you or consume your thoughts, by all means sell.
You don't have to sell it all in one fell swoop.
MJ >>
No, it's not keeping me awake nor is it consuming my thoughts.
Selling in stages won't do because I'm looking to buy back everything.
I think we may all agree that we'll definitely see a future silver price that will be less than $26.40.
So why not take advantage of it? >>
Why bother and why pay 2 more commissions and short term taxes?
And those bars I sold off in the lower $20's? Well, they haven't been replaced....and if they were it would have been at much higher levels.
roadrunner
Fellas, leave the tight pants to the ladies. If I can count the coins in your pockets you better use them to call a tailor. Stay thirsty my friends......
I knew it would happen.