keep the powder dry or load up?
piecesofme
Posts: 6,669 ✭✭✭
With the metals recent run, especially Silver, would you be loading up right now or keep your eyes open for a deal with the hope of a retracement? I'm torn as to what to do. You?
To forgive is to free a prisoner, and to discover that prisoner was you.
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Over $20 Ag & $1,300 Au I'll slow down some ~maybe
As for .999 silver, most were selling for spot + 1.60. Just couldnt get into any of that either at this level. When I offer to buy in volume they will usually give a break, but not today. Greed is such a terrible thing when the opportunity presents itself.
There are several B&M's in the area, but I only hit 2 of them today because I figured i'd get the same bend over at the others.
I guess we'll just see what happens next week. I can't seem to give away what i'm willing to part with at this point anyway just barely being over spot myself. My personal stash in plentiful at this point, I was just wondering what the concencus was on going forward at this level.
Gonna sit tight & hope for a correction around October. Will have some $$ set aside then.
<keeping fingers crossed>
roadrunner
"Interest rates, the price of money, are the most important market. And, perversely, they’re the market that’s most manipulated by the Fed." - Doug Casey
Many members on this forum that now it cannot fit in my signature. Please ask for entire list.
If you're holding long term, then just keep on buying month after month. If you're a short term trader, then
that's another story.
<< <i>As much as I'd like to add another 100 oz'er to my "nest egg" I just can't see Silver moving past $20/oz
Gonna sit tight & hope for a correction around October. Will have some $$ set aside then.
<keeping fingers crossed> >>
I'm with you.
Coin's for sale/trade.
Tom Pilitowski
US Rare Coin Investments
800-624-1870
That was a long time ago
Coin's for sale/trade.
Tom Pilitowski
US Rare Coin Investments
800-624-1870
<< <i>I bought a few thousand oz's between just below $5 and $7 and sold at $32.
That was a long time ago
"Those were the good old days, I'd hoped they'd never end" or words to that affect.
....A bullion dealer on just about every street corner...
I'm selling some now & will continue to sell, depending on market conditions...
and sell the rest. While it is a little more expensive then silver bars, you
have the double kick of silver plus old coinage that is very collectible.
Camelot
I hesitate to ask about this (as it sounds SO like the scams you always see), BUT:
My mom just inherited some $$ from her uncle, and is wanting to put about $20K (about half of her inheritance) into PM's.
She is 61 and unemployed, but has enough cash-on-hand to make it until SS kicks in. Then, she wants to live frugally.
Should she really dump $20k into PM's right now, or do a slow, phased approach for the next several months. My worry is she might be tempted to fritter it away (our family isn't used to these sums all at once).
Any advise would be appreciated.
Tomohawk, I don't know her situation, but I think of PMs as cash (hard money, or real money) so I wouldn't hesitate to put it all into metals. But she might feel more comfortable putting say half of it into metals and the rest in cash under the mattress. I'd go half silver, half gold. Note - this doesn't really reflect my own allocation, which is heavily weighted toward silver. But I think gold is more liquid; I hold silver for the longer term and sell gold if I suddenly need to raise some cash (fiat paper).
"Ask, and it shall be given you; seek, and ye shall find; knock, and it shall be opened unto you." -Luke 11:9
"Hear, O Israel: The LORD our God is one LORD: And thou shalt love the LORD thy God with all thine heart, and with all thy soul, and with all thy might." -Deut. 6:4-5
"For the LORD is our judge, the LORD is our lawgiver, the LORD is our king; He will save us." -Isaiah 33:22
have some of each and rebalance into cash as a sector outperforms, shifting capital into weak sectors once they've bottomed and the fundamentals/demographics/technicals have started to improve.
the metals bull is a little long in the tooth. it will take a crisis to move beyond "all time high" resistance.
expect rotation into hot stock and equity sectors starting in the late fall. real estate in nice areas has already bottomed.
real estate in oversaturated and less desireable markets has a ways to go.....
Liberty: Parent of Science & Industry
<< <i>I hold silver for the longer term and sell gold if I suddenly need to raise some cash (fiat paper).
I'm the opposite.....I hold gold for the longer term and sell silver to raise funds. I'm not saying my choice is the right one, but is what I prefer.
<< <i>
<< <i>I hold silver for the longer term and sell gold if I suddenly need to raise some cash (fiat paper).
I'm the opposite.....I hold gold for the longer term and sell silver to raise funds. I'm not saying my choice is the right one, but is what I prefer. >>
Does it really matter? Doesn't silver and gold generally move together either up or down?
Worry is the interest you pay on a debt you may not owe.
"Paper money eventually returns to its intrinsic value---zero."----Voltaire
"Everything you say should be true, but not everything true should be said."----Voltaire
That was a long time ago>>
The key is to still have some of that money now. If you do...
<<I'm the opposite.....I hold gold for the longer term and sell silver to raise funds. I'm not saying my choice is the right one, but is what I prefer.>>
<Does it really matter? Doesn't silver and gold generally move together either up or down?>
Yes for the most part. But most people can afford $20/oz more than they can $1250/oz. Scott has the right idea.
with a heavy plunge in PMs. I would recommend no more then 10% in PMs divided
between gold and silver and the rest of the money in a FDIC insured account ,until
the present economic storm subsides. Prudence not speculation , is the best course for
your mom to follow.
Camelot
<< <i>Tomohawk, someone so close to the knife edge of survival , as your mom,should not indulge themselves
with a heavy plunge in PMs. I would recommend no more then 10% in PMs divided
between gold and silver and the rest of the money in a FDIC insured account ,until
the present economic storm subsides. Prudence not speculation , is the best course for
your mom to follow. >>
Wise recommendation ..... I would advise her to buy 1..$5000 Series I Savings Bond..pays around 4% interest...$2500 in PM's..... $10k in a insured Money Market account ( with luck she may find one paying 1% ) The remaining $2500, go on a cruise or whatever she always dreamed on wanting to do. ( You only live once & can't take it with you)
<< <i>Wise recommendation ..... I would advise her to buy 1..$5000 Series I Savings Bond..pays around 4% interest >>
Can you point me to which I Bond you are referring to paying 4%? I assume this is the yield, correct?
I just took a quick look at Treasury and they were offering:
Different asset classes include:
1) cash equivalents = cash or bank savings account
2) bond equivalents = savings bonds or bond mutual fund
3) precious metals = gold or silver
4) stocks = stock mutual fund
Stay far away from annuities or brokerage accounts and/or individual stock picking.
I would pay particular attention to minimizing any transaction costs, because they can eat up earnings. It's a different world now, and all of the financial institutions are looking for ways to tack on more fees because they are now limited in the amount of interest that they can charge.
Costs are now at least as important as profits.
I would allocate the money differently than most of the other recommendations here, but my preferences would require further expertise which your Mom probably doesn't have, so instead just keep the allocations simple and manageable so that they can be evaluated at a glance.
I knew it would happen.
Does it really matter? Doesn't silver and gold generally move together either up or down?
PerryHall, I used to think that they always moved together but in recent times silver seems to track the expectations for the economy as much as anything. On the other hand, gold seems to act as a flight to safety when confidence in the economic system wanes. They do move together sometimes as well.
I've come to believe that I've found a "sweet spot" in having a mix of silver, gold and platinum. Ultimately, they all benefit from the government's irresponsible actions, but they all seem to buffer each other as the economic news of the day flips back & forth from doom & gloom, to sunshine & roses.
I knew it would happen.
<< <i>
<< <i>Wise recommendation ..... I would advise her to buy 1..$5000 Series I Savings Bond..pays around 4% interest >>
Can you point me to which I Bond you are referring to paying 4%? I assume this is the yield, correct?
I just took a quick look at Treasury and they were offering:
You're correct...I was looking at some of my older bond yields ... Series I Bonds purchased this year prior to 11/1 .. will have a 1.74% yield (better than any bank will offer you)..., however, you need to keep in mind, that the rates are adjusted twice a year ( fixed & inflation )The semiannual rates for the fixed and inflation rates are determined each May 1 and November 1.
Savings I Bond rates
A circ wheat cent now carries about the same premium to it's intrinsic metal value than a MS63 $10 Indian/Lib does. The MS63 $10's are going for about 1.8X melt...the MS64's about 2.75X melt. Try getting BU mercs, buffs, 1929 Lincolns for that premium.
Shadowstats SGS CPI model
roadrunner
I really appreciate the comments and wise advise so far...thank you very much. I have to confess I have a bit of gold/silver fever, so my advise tends to drift that way (ok, I told her to put all $40k into silver and gold right now!).
My mom's plans do include working, so she's attempting to preserve (and grow) this inheritance. While I do appreciate it's not always wise to drop everything into one medium or another, a light diversification heavily weighted in AU/AG is what she'd like to do as her plans have about a 5 year horizon. BUT, exactly what type of gold is the question (and silver).
I've often seen it written here about older gold vs. new. Roadrunner, you make an interesting suggestion for some of the $$ to go into the Libs and Indian gold. Should she jump into any Platinum (although I don't know if she's comfortable). At lest that metal is not at its current high and might have some room to travel.
I gotta confess, I'm NOT comfortable recommending anything to do with stocks, bonds or any other paper good (and that includes sticking a bunch of $$'s into MoneyMarket accounts or even keeping cash). I feel quite a bit of value will be lost even in the next few years, and she's gonna need all the $$ she can get to survive on her own (and then I'll need all the $$ I can get to help support her!).
Pretty interesting how I always think I have a great way to spend/save $$, but when someone I know has some drop into their lap, I'm not so hip with advice!
Diversifying 10-20% of ones gold holdings into cheap choice BU generic gold at cyclical lows is not much of a risk imo. The last time they were at levels this low was in 2006-2007, end of 2008 to early 2009.
roadrunner
I prefer AGEs, but that's only because I'm not up on the swings in the premiums for generic gold. AGEs have similar swings, but grading is not as much of a factor with AGEs, and I am a simple man - so that's why I prefer AGEs. Gold Maples, Sovereigns, or even Kruggerands are still all viable ways to own gold as well. It's really a matter of preference when the buy-sell spreads are roughly the same. In my opinion, the buy-sell spread is much more critical at the time of the transaction than the price, or the premium. When buying gold, take a little time to shop around and make sure that you are buying from a reputable source. You can alway ask this forum for opinions on the best places to buy.
I feel a little differently about platinum than Roadrunner does. I could wax prolific about platinum, but let it suffice for me to say that platinum acts differently enough from gold and silver to actually provide another degree of diversification, even within the precious metal part of the portfolio itself. You don't need to hope for a moonshot in platinum to benefit from the reduction in volatility achieved by having a 3rd component. Platinum is a useful industrial metal, supplies are harder and harder to come by, it is 10X scarcer than gold, it is liquid and can be sold more easily these days. I've never regreted keeping a healthy percentage of my pm portfolio in platinum, but I'm also willing to concede that platinum isn't essential in a pm portfolio, especially for a beginning position.
For an investment in silver bullion, I like it divisible and identifiable which to me means either Silver Eagles or 90% silver coinage. Both are very re-sellable at whatever the current market price is at the time. Just be sure you check a few buyers for fair pricing when you buy or sell.
I knew it would happen.
Many members on this forum that now it cannot fit in my signature. Please ask for entire list.
While I'm not buying much .999 at these prices, there is still stuff out there to relieve me of my FRNs . . .
With VF junk Morgan dollars now selling for about $20ea, slabbed 64s seem to me to be a screaming bargain at $45-$50ea. I bought a few NGC/PCGS to salt back for GS bid at a small show last weekend. Plan to buy alot more if the prices stay this low.
Several dates of the SHQ silver sets are currently bid at about junk prices. Sticking these back as I find them. Same with early 60s mint sets . . .
HH
1947-P & D; 1948-D; 1949-P & S; 1950-D & S; and 1952-S.
Any help locating any of these OBW rolls would be gratefully appreciated!
If you please...... opinion on AZK? I've got $5K sitting in Apple and JNJ, thinking of selling and moving to AZK and Oil.
<< <i>RR...... You mentioned junior miners may be a good asset class right now.
If you please...... opinion on AZK? I've got $5K sitting in Apple and JNJ, thinking of selling and moving to AZK and Oil. >>
Why not play the Jr. Gold miner ETF GDXJ and the silver miner ETF SIL? Stay away from oil ETFs. You might consider shorting the DJIA at some point with VXX and SDOW (double short).
Good Guide to ETF investing
"Interest rates, the price of money, are the most important market. And, perversely, they’re the market that’s most manipulated by the Fed." - Doug Casey
My only recommendation is that if you go with American Gold Eagles, then get the ones that are graded by either
PCGS or NGC. They don't have to be 70's, 69's are just fine.
Aurizon is a very well thought of producing Canadian junior miner with it's mines in Canada. Hard to beat that. This stock is on the recommended list by a lot of analysts. I've owned it several times during this year. Unfortunately, it has completed a 60% up move in 6 weeks to the upper end of it's channel, as many of the better juniors have. That's not to say it can't go quite a bit higher from here and break out into a new channel. I'd rather wait until there is some sort of pull back before entering. The last good one was mid July. Derryb makes a good point selecting GDXJ as a diverse junior alternative. Odds are that whatever individual junior stock(s) you select, some will underperform by quite a bit and will cause your portfolio to underperform. Unless you have a great gold stock picker that you get tips from (and that isn't me) you would probably do much better and be safer in GDXJ. One bit of bad news or a so-so earnings report, hint of a strike, cando falls against the dollar, etc. and the individual miner gets whacked. That doesn't happen with GDXJ since it's so diverse. I don't mind picking up bashed down juniors from time to time, but holding a core GDXJ/GDX position makes more sense imo for the majority of gold investors. At the current time those are at lofty levels as well. I'd like to pick up some GDXJ myself but not at these levels. I had some at 25 and got shook in July. Junior miners are a good asset class right now, but more so the ones that haven't really participated in the July-August rally. GDXJ is at its all time high of which AZK gets some of the credit.
AZK chart
With VF junk Morgan dollars now selling for about $20ea, slabbed 64s seem to me to be a screaming bargain at $45-$50ea. I bought a few NGC/PCGS to salt back for GS bid at a small show last weekend. Plan to buy alot more if the prices stay this low.
That's a premium to melt of about 3X for the MS64 Morgans. That makes the 63 and 64 $10 Indians/Libs even better values at 1.8X and 2.75X melt. MS64 Saints only have a 1.4X which is not all that far from the circ Morgans at 1.3X melt. There's history of melting BU Morgans back in the '79/80. As far as I know, no one was melting choice BU $10's back then. If/when gold and silver prices go significantly higher than today, I think it's very possible we may see both MS64 Morgans and MS64 Saints be considered meltable bullion. It might take gold at $2,000 or $2,500/oz for that to occur. So be careful about considering generic gold as long term holds never to be traded. It's usually best to play generic gold on the swings and then move back into bullion as prices peak....lather, rinse, repeat.
roadrunner
If you are looking to fill a gold or silver collection and are buying strictly for collection purposes, then you should go ahead and buy the gold and silver collector pieces that are you are looking for.
The most important thing is the premium you are paying for the gold and silver coins and bars.
For me, I am always buying regardless of what spot gold and spot silver are doing because I am a collector and I am looking for certain silver art bars to add to my collection.
I'm quite long the supermajors, and half that was BP at under $30. They're being heavily discounted ATM based on projections of poor US economic growth.
I prefer oil to gold miners or ETFs when it comes to equities, as I don't like to hold gold in paper form and the miners are a difficult game IMO.
But I don't consider the miners "paper" gold any more than the oil companies are "paper" oil. What's the difference? The risks are the same: environmental risks, permitting, currency exchanges, political risks, cost of labor and supplies, derivatives, etc. If your miners are in a safe jurisdiction, have the goods underground with a low debt structure, they should do well. Oil is probably a "safer" bet but I think the miners will far outperform the oils in the coming years. The miners were the most beat down of all the sectors in fall 2008. And they've been basically moving sideways for a couple of years. Sinclair has suggested that energy giant BP is so loaded with derivatives and drives the credit of so many other companies around the world that they could not be allowed to fail as it would have many times the effect of a Lehman or BSC.
The juniors have been held done with a lot of shorting since around 2006. At some point in time, maybe now, that "short" stranglehold is getting harder to keep down. They tried that with Sinclair's TRE and were quite successfull in keeping that down for years....until the past year.
roadrunner