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I learned a lesson collecting modern coins...
llafoe
Posts: 7,220 ✭✭
Collect business strikes... DO NOT collect PR70DC coins!
I bought several at 20% of PCGS price guide and am going to take a bath when they sell in a week! (Actually, I don't recall seeing any baths here in Afghanistan, so make that a shower!) I thought I was being very conservative purchasing them at 20% of guide... little did I know!
In the short time that my children and I have been gathering proofs, they have done nothing but go down in value while the business strikes have remained steady or climbed in value.
I've listed several coins with a PCGS price guide value of approximately $20,000 which I paid approximately $7,000. What I paid 20% for six months ago has now become 35%.
What say you... will I even see 20% on eBay ($4,000) or will I see less... ?
The sad part is... an MS-67 business strike is visibly different from an MS-68 business strike. However, a PR69DC looks identical to a PR0DC. Why didn't I see that early on? It's easy really... too caught up in completing the registry sets with my children.
Maybe my ex-wife was right... maybe I am an idiot! :-(
These are my observations... others may differ.
I bought several at 20% of PCGS price guide and am going to take a bath when they sell in a week! (Actually, I don't recall seeing any baths here in Afghanistan, so make that a shower!) I thought I was being very conservative purchasing them at 20% of guide... little did I know!
In the short time that my children and I have been gathering proofs, they have done nothing but go down in value while the business strikes have remained steady or climbed in value.
I've listed several coins with a PCGS price guide value of approximately $20,000 which I paid approximately $7,000. What I paid 20% for six months ago has now become 35%.
What say you... will I even see 20% on eBay ($4,000) or will I see less... ?
The sad part is... an MS-67 business strike is visibly different from an MS-68 business strike. However, a PR69DC looks identical to a PR0DC. Why didn't I see that early on? It's easy really... too caught up in completing the registry sets with my children.
Maybe my ex-wife was right... maybe I am an idiot! :-(
These are my observations... others may differ.
WANTED: Cincinnati Reds TEAM Cards
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Even the PR-69 D Cams are no bargain. I've bought them to fill holds in my type set so that I could get the set up to 100% complete. I've sold a couple of them, and all the dealer would pay was $5 a piece after I had paid $20 to $25. I expected that. At least I'm only out a few hundred if I went to sell all of them, and I do enjoy looking at them. Cameo contrast like this is something about which collectors only dreamed of owning 35 to 40 years ago.
Sounds like you were trying to collect them for an investment, if that is the case stick with tax free bonds!!
Andrew
PS: Thank you for your service.
Please visit my website Millcitynumismatics.com
<< <i>Collect business strikes... DO NOT collect PR70DC coins!
I bought several at 20% of PCGS price guide and am going to take a bath when they sell in a week! (Actually, I don't recall seeing any baths here in Afghanistan, so make that a shower!) I thought I was being very conservative purchasing them at 20% of guide... little did I know!
In the short time that my children and I have been gathering proofs, they have done nothing but go down in value while the business strikes have remained steady or climbed in value.
I've listed several coins with a PCGS price guide value of approximately $20,000 which I paid approximately $7,000. What I paid 20% for six months ago has now become 35%.
What say you... will I even see 20% on eBay ($4,000) or will I see less... ?
The sad part is... an MS-67 business strike is visibly different from an MS-68 business strike. However, a PR69DC looks identical to a PR0DC. Why didn't I see that early on? It's easy really... too caught up in completing the registry sets with my children.
Maybe my ex-wife was right... maybe I am an idiot! :-(These are my observations... others may differ. >>
Not an idiot at all, just--like most of us--subject to great marketing. Still, without knowing exactly which coins you have, it's hard to imagine you went TOO wrong with your purchase at 20% of list (unless they're counterfeit, of course).
But anyway, modern proofs are almost never a good investment. They simply make too many of them and too many people buy them. There are some notable exceptions, however, in which I believe proofs are going to outshine or at least stay even with business/uncirculated strikes. These include:
* proof platinum eagles
* proof fractional gold buffalos
* First Spouse gold
* Silver eagles (?)
In most of these cases, the proofs look MUCH MUCH better than the uncs, and in some cases, the mintage spread between the proofs and uncs is narrow enough to still give the proofs a nice premium. Also, I'm not talking about the artificial premium proof gold eagles have now because they can be put into IRAs.
BTW, if you haven't bought Eric Jordan's book on Moderns, you need to do that right away. Can you receive books in Afghanistan? If you can't order things like this and would like me to order and send you a copy, PM me with your mailing address and I'll get one to you.
Anyway, don't be discouraged. I've made a lot of poor numismatic decisions and am sure I'll make many more. It is fun to get a little smarter, though, and recognize the great opportunities when they present!
<< <i>* First Spouse gold
* Silver Eagles (?) >>
I'm still not convinced that First Spouse gold is a good buy in the long run. This was a dead series for a while, but now that gold is up and viewed as a hedge against the shaky economy, they have a following. When this dust settles you could be betting more on the price gold than the numismatic value of this series.
Proof Silver Eagles are another matter. The more common dates are okay, but I still think that the 1995-W Proof at $2,500 bid on Gray Sheet is still too high. That coin has come down a lot over the past year, and with a mintage of 30,125 with virtually a 100% survival rate, I think it has more room to drop.
<< <i>I've listed several coins with a PCGS price guide value of approximately $20,000 which I paid approximately $7,000. What I paid 20% for six months ago has now become 35%. >>
You still did not answer the most important question...where these coins PCGS graded or NGC. NGC or some other grading service, NGC moderns historically sell for much less than PCGS, most of us consider a NGC 70 to a PCGS 69 equivalent, having said that, a little research on your part before buying them, would have saved you some of your disappointments.
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<< <i>* First Spouse gold
* Silver Eagles (?) >>
I'm still not convinced that First Spouse gold is a good buy in the long run. This was a dead series for a while, but now that gold is up and viewed as a hedge against the shaky economy, they have a following. When this dust settles you could be betting more on the price gold than the numismatic value of this series.
Proof Silver Eagles are another matter. The more common dates are okay, but I still think that the 1995-W Proof at $2,500 bid on Gray Sheet is still too high. That coin has come down a lot over the past year, and with a mintage of 30,125 with virtually a 100% survival rate, I think it has more room to drop. >>
You could well be right, Bill. I am just noting that the proof silver eagles seem to have done fairly well compared to issue price. That's another thing I'd say to the OP--the best time to buy proofs is when they are issued! Once the big run-ups have taken place, it's always a much bigger gamble. I, too, wouldn't be buying a 1995-W or any gold proof Spouses that have already been graded. I am also not convinced that the proof First Spouses are a good investment, but at least you've got the value of gold as a basement--and these do seem to be attracting a bit of interest now.
<< <i>most of us consider a NGC 70 to a PCGS 69 equivalent >>
I think most of us are not koolaid drinkers and will let the coin speak for itself...
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<< <i>most of us consider a NGC 70 to a PCGS 69 equivalent >>
I think most of us are not koolaid drinkers and will let the coin speak for itself... >>
I let the resale market speak for itself. You don't have to be a kool aid drinker to use that guideline.
Try finding top-grade circulation strike singles for many of the clad series issues and you'll understand the BIG difference.
The individuals who are specialists in this field know exactly what I convey.
<< <i>This is why I seek out to slab circulation strikes. These coins were made without regards to Quality Control; they were simply minted to fill the existing needs for everyday commerce. To me, ALL modern proof coins are nice, at least most of them to satisfy a high grade set.
Try finding top-grade circulation strike singles for many of the clad series issues and you'll understand the BIG difference.
The individuals who are specialists in this field know exactly what I convey. >>
You are correct.
But I'll confess that I don't have enough patience with modern coins to chase all over to find the exceptional modern business strike coin, and I’m too much of a chicken to pay the price for it when it shows up. Conversely I’ll chase a “classic coin” for years (or even decades as it has turned out) until I find the right one.
My view of a type set is that you try to buy the most esthetically pleasing coins to fill each slot that you can afford. For me Proof coins often fill the bill when they are available. Someday I might go back and convert all of my Mint State pieces from say 1860 to Choice to Gem Proofs, but for the moment I’d like to finish my gold type
So my children were stuck with devaluing unimprovable coins. Where's the fun in collecting something you can't improve?
<< <i>So my children were stuck with devaluing unimprovable coins. Where's the fun in collecting something you can't improve? >>
Part of the fun is appreciating and enjoying the coin for what it is. I've owned coins for over 30 years and just admired them. In some instances I could have bought up grades at considerable cost, but I just didn't need to. If it pleased me in the grade I owned it, I kept it UNLESS the up grade was REALLY breath taking.
Sorry to hear about your situation. Just my 2 cents:
1. It has been said again and again to do your homework and be VERY selective in the buying of modern (and classic) coins. Obviously, it was perfectly fine to collect PR70DC fractional Buffalo Gold proofs over the past 2 years (still up around 250% - 350%+ in that time period). It was not so good to buy state quarters let's say over the past few years (for reasons not the subject of this thread). This was mentioned recently on another thread where an example was given of a certain proof state quarter routinely selling for about $50 that was showing a Price Guide value of around $475 at the time. I think it was shown that the past (9) sales had been at around $50 average. So, the coin was already selling for 10% of the Guide as it was simply a price that had not been updated in some time in the Guide. Had one been buying this coin at, say, 20% of the Guide, there would have been an overpayment at about $45 or so on the coin. Examples like this are the "exception", not the "rule" with the Price Guide and the editor promptly adjusted this particular coin downward by near 50% best I know as soon after he was made aware of the situation (I suspect another drop may also soon follow and these downward adjustments affected many other coins in that series as well). IMHO, the Price Guide is getting better and better every day - no question.
2. Ditto for business strike coins. While I am a HUGE fan of modern business strike coins, again .... do your homework. Things can obviously be overpriced or underpriced. Coins can also trade here at well under the Price Guide depending upon the coin and I am aware of coins I believe are currently worth 5x+ the current listed price in the Guide as well! DO YOUR HOMEWORK FOR BOTH MS & PROOF, MODERN AND CLASSIC.
Wondercoin
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<< <i>So my children were stuck with devaluing unimprovable coins. Where's the fun in collecting something you can't improve? >>
Part of the fun is appreciating and enjoying the coin for what it is. I've owned coins for over 30 years and just admired them. In some instances I could have bought up grades at considerable cost, but I just didn't need to. If it pleased me in the grade I owned it, I kept it UNLESS the up grade was REALLY breath taking. >>
I have to agree with this.
I got into coins (in my 2nd childhood) when my son was born. I wanted to start him out with something we could both grow together with and enjoy. It started with SHQs out of circulation. Then a "sample" bag off ebay that had some older coins (1880 morgan dollar, some wheaties, etc). Then, I found the RCC on the 'net. Went from there to here when there was an offer to pay $25 for an auction catalog and get a year's membership here + 4 "free" gradings.
Around that time, I started learning about slabbed coins. I got some ICG PR70 coins from my uncle (1999 SHQs minus 1 of them, and 2000 SHQs).
When I got them, I learned that things weren't equal with the grading services, so one had to be careful with prices.
Then, I started seeing how some of the new issues, in 70, would skyrocket, then lower. Then, I got into the craze with the GAEs and SAEs for the 20th annv set from the mint. Saw the Reverse Proof 70s go up up and away, then, quickly start coming back down.
Watching, and seeing, these things helped me understand why, unless I had unlimited disposable income, I wouldn't want to play "gotta be the top of the heap" (or, unless I made them myself....but, if that were the case, I would just sell them and take the quick extra funds.....I had a number of PR70 and even MS70 SAEs that I made, but I sold them all and kept some excellent raw and excellent MS/PR69 coins instead).
My son's set has PR69 coins in it. No noticeable imperfections and a fraction of the cost. He'll never be #1 in the registry with them (or even in the top 20 most likely), but I was able to pay 4 years of college for him, 10+ years in advance, and he will never have to worry if the value of those coins go down. We have other coins that have more value and better chances (1877 IHC, 1916-D mercs, etc).
I do not think moderns are an investment, nor really a smart place to put any money. They are a fun thing to do on the side though.
I've been told I tolerate fools poorly...that may explain things if I have a problem with you. Current ebay items - Nothing at the moment
Empty Nest Collection
<< <i>Ex-wives are never right. NEVER! >>
This made my day, thank you
I suppose the arguement can be made that PR70 populations for some coins are low and haven't gone up much over the years, and that is a sign of rarity. I see it as the PR70's are out there, they just haven't been submitted yet for various reasons.
Edited to add:
I also think the OP's experience is the norm- take an MS70 or PR70 coin into almost any B&M, and tell the dealer what the population is, and that it's rare for the grade. Then prepare for the dealer to say something like "See, there aren't a lot of buyers that come in here looking for something like that," before he either refuses to buy the coin or makes a lowball offer.
The price for Heritage is sometimes less than eBay+paypal+shipping and having to deal with returns.
I see some "modern" coins like this selling for over 2k there.
..."collect" what you enjoy and can afford.
BTW you are only an idiot if you think you are.
It's not the same, I know, but goodness knows how big a hit I took on raw Walkers for the longest. I finally came around, mostly.
be cool and get home soon.
Anybody dealing with moderns should realize this whether its Unc's or Proofs.
The name is LEE!
I guess it is a lesson learned about the modern 70 market. eh.
even taking into account price guide errors.... the prices are always changing in the market.
You bought when you thought the buying was good. It turns out that it was better later.
Now you have a collection to enjoy. You may not enjoy the prices paid, but at 70 you've got what sounds like a completed collection. Sit back and relax.
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<< <i>most of us consider a NGC 70 to a PCGS 69 equivalent >>
I think most of us are not koolaid drinkers and will let the coin speak for itself... >>
I let the resale market speak for itself. You don't have to be a kool aid drinker to use that guideline. >>
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<< <i>Ex-wives are never right. NEVER! >>
This made my day, thank you
This is older than you might think... after all, when teacher marked something wrong, what did teacher do?
marked it with an "ex"... and a BIG RED one at that!
A Truth That's Told With Bad Intent
Beats All The Lies You Can Invent
<< <i>and if they are silver proofs... check them refularly for spots. >>
Buy a cheap PR-69; avoid the expensive PR-70; and you won't have to worry about this spot foolishness. Besides if the thing grows spots it's too late anyway.
<< <i>Collect business strikes... DO NOT collect PR70DC coins!
I bought several at 20% of PCGS price guide and am going to take a bath when they sell in a week! (Actually, I don't recall seeing any baths here in Afghanistan, so make that a shower!) I thought I was being very conservative purchasing them at 20% of guide... little did I know!
In the short time that my children and I have been gathering proofs, they have done nothing but go down in value while the business strikes have remained steady or climbed in value.
I've listed several coins with a PCGS price guide value of approximately $20,000 which I paid approximately $7,000. What I paid 20% for six months ago has now become 35%.
What say you... will I even see 20% on eBay ($4,000) or will I see less... ?
The sad part is... an MS-67 business strike is visibly different from an MS-68 business strike. However, a PR69DC looks identical to a PR0DC. Why didn't I see that early on? It's easy really... too caught up in completing the registry sets with my children.
Maybe my ex-wife was right... maybe I am an idiot! :-(
These are my observations... others may differ. >>
You have to be careful with unc moderns as well but, perhaps, not quite so careful.
One of the problems is with the concept of PR-70. While everyone wants perfection
in order to achieve it most coins are going to be in the ballpark. This means the de-
mand can be ephemeral as some will be satisfied with PR-69. This goes double when
the lower grade is often readily available at a much lower price.
Collectors really should look to see what's available and relative prices.
And like with all collectibles avouid buying for "investment". It tends to be easy to
get coins cheap but much harder to sell them for full value.
<< <i>"Collect business strikes... DO NOT collect PR70DC coins!"
Sorry to hear about your situation. Just my 2 cents:
1. It has been said again and again to do your homework and be VERY selective in the buying of modern (and classic) coins. Obviously, it was perfectly fine to collect PR70DC fractional Buffalo Gold proofs over the past 2 years (still up around 250% - 350%+ in that time period). It was not so good to buy state quarters let's say over the past few years (for reasons not the subject of this thread). This was mentioned recently on another thread where an example was given of a certain proof state quarter routinely selling for about $50 that was showing a Price Guide value of around $475 at the time. I think it was shown that the past (9) sales had been at around $50 average. So, the coin was already selling for 10% of the Guide as it was simply a price that had not been updated in some time in the Guide. Had one been buying this coin at, say, 20% of the Guide, there would have been an overpayment at about $45 or so on the coin. Examples like this are the "exception", not the "rule" with the Price Guide and the editor promptly adjusted this particular coin downward by near 50% best I know as soon after he was made aware of the situation (I suspect another drop may also soon follow and these downward adjustments affected many other coins in that series as well). IMHO, the Price Guide is getting better and better every day - no question.
2. Ditto for business strike coins. While I am a HUGE fan of modern business strike coins, again .... do your homework. Things can obviously be overpriced or underpriced. Coins can also trade here at well under the Price Guide depending upon the coin and I am aware of coins I believe are currently worth 5x+ the current listed price in the Guide as well! DO YOUR HOMEWORK FOR BOTH MS & PROOF, MODERN AND CLASSIC.
>>
This bears repeating.
Besides, if I agree with Wondercoin I must be right.
<< <i>I've always avoided supergrade moderns, mainly because to me, their value isn't based on how rare they are- it's based on a perception of rarity from population reports. With ultra-high mintages, populations can change, possibly by large numbers.
>>
There are people who know how tough moderns are whether they are supergrade or not. They
don't make their buying decisions based on pop reports so much as the coin and its grade.
My point is that same mistake can happen on virtually any series, modern, or classic, any grade, when a person uses any single static price guide to determine their buy price, without researching the real market prices. Moving one grade lower doesn't help, if the person is buying from the same source that sold them the other coins. Those other coins are likely to be marked up as well. For that matter, moving to classic coins might not help either, if the buyer is unwilling to take the time to shop for price.
<< <i>Sounds like the lesson is about using a percentage of guide price to make purchases without researching the real market price for the coins. A couple of hours, or perhaps even one hour, searching archives on Teletrade, Heritage, Ebay would have saved the original poster from the mistake. The same exact coins would have been a decent buy, perhaps even a good buy at some price level. For moderns and ultramoderns, the holder is also a factor, again look at the average prices realized to see why.
My point is that same mistake can happen on virtually any series, modern, or classic, any grade, when a person uses any single static price guide to determine their buy price, without researching the real market prices. Moving one grade lower doesn't help, if the person is buying from the same source that sold them the other coins. Those other coins are likely to be marked up as well. For that matter, moving to classic coins might not help either, if the buyer is unwilling to take the time to shop for price. >>
The 20% is not static, it's the average over the 34 coins... at the time, I purchased the coins at about 65-70% of Teletrade, Heritage, eBay, etc. I did my researched, took the average and then multiplied x .75. I placed bids on nice coins at 75% of average winning at 65-70%. This was approximately 20% of PCGS price guide in November, 2009. Today, it's approximately 35% of PCGS price guide. The price I paid remained the same, while the prices in the PCGS price guide have continued to decrease. I did my homework, bought at a seemingly beneficial discount and once there was no where to go to improve the collection; they all looked too perfect compared to business strikes (which have character) and my children decided to sell, I listed them on eBay. I expect to take a couple thousand dollar loss. It was never an investment, it's what they felt were "neat" coins that lost their appeal once complete and again... looking too perfect to enjoy. No flaws, no distractions, no character. One looks cool... 17 side-by-side looks mundane.
That's what high grade moderns are and yes I've been a purchaser.
Good post llafoe.
Be safe.
"Inspiration exists, but it has to find you working" Pablo Picasso
why not sell them there with modest reserves?
or have their prices dropped in half?
or do you need the money within 3 months?
<< <i>if you bought them at 30% lower than Teletrade or Heritage
why not sell them there with modest reserves?
or have their prices dropped in half?
or do you need the money within 3 months? >>
I echo these comments. Why the big loss, if bought at below the average auction price realized. Why not move them at the venue where the prices are best? Has the market for these coins moved that much lower in a year or two? In that case yikes, but it can also happen with other series. Some better date Morgan dollars that I bought in collector grades fell maybe 33% from 2006 to 2008, retail to retail. Retail to wholesale would be worse. Most price guides have little to do with real world pricing so mentioning the guides tends to fog the issue.
Maybe the lesson is not to buy expensive coins for kids, unless they are coin collectors. Most kids and young adults would much prefer straight cash to buy stuff they want, over some collectable they have little interest in. It is a cold reality, but it is reality. At least dad is doing the selling, otherwise, the loss might be more like 95% if the kids dumped at the local shop for a low ball offer.
/edit to add: some mention was made about the same coins in business strikes doing well. That is hindsight. In the next two years, the same fate may occur to the business strikes. No one knows the future. It is always easy in hindsight, not so easy in real time. In two years, there may be a similar post from someone paying top dollar for some top pop business strikes with the same complaint about the their coins going down in value, and how they should have bought the proofs. No one knows.
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<< <i>and if they are silver proofs... check them refularly for spots. >>
Buy a cheap PR-69; avoid the expensive PR-70; and you won't have to worry about this spot foolishness. Besides if the thing grows spots it's too late anyway.
I guess the same can be said for buying MS64 Morgans and Saints--avoid the premium for "gem" quality. We know people can't tell the difference by the spread we get on a routing "guess the grade". --Jerry
NEVER collect for investment. Sure, it can be debated, but the returns like all investments are risky. Why we still have as strong a market as we do right now in coins is beyond me. I was one saying the sky (price) will fall. I am still a believer that the market will adjust further. It is NOT in PCGS best interest to maintain the price guide all in red. I still think prices are getting and will continue to get softer. It simply defies logic as to why this hobby has not taken a hit given the rest of the economy.
NEVER collect Proof 70 coinage. Not worth the money when the numbers minted still exceed early mintage totals for the early years. And as said here, they can still submit a lot of proof sets and change whatever the pop report is today. A proof 70 Lincoln was on average a few years back pushing $600-$1000, not any more. Besides, for $400, I can get a heck of a nice MS pre 1920 Lincoln cent.
Back to that investment issue and in general collecting modern coins. Whole sets cost more to collect than they will EVER sell come the time for auction. I have seen several disappointed folks selling Lincoln Memorial sets and getting about 1/3 the price guide. I am betting the same is said for other denominations.
The mints demand to make a profit making specialized coins just for collectors beyond the annual proof sets is crazy. I am seriously thinking of selling my proof set run from about the 1970’s because they are selling for half what I bought them and besides taking up space, I see no need to keep them. If I want one, they are readily available cheap.
Again, not to bash modern collectors, but seriously, how many negatives does it take to understand they should only be collected for the fun/enjoyment and that is it. While many will say I made a ton of money selling moderns, you sold to folks who will not recover their cost let alone how many of those same coins sold can be resold at the same or even higher prices 5 years later, very few.
WS
<< <i>if you bought them at 30% lower than Teletrade or Heritage
why not sell them there with modest reserves?
or have their prices dropped in half?
or do you need the money within 3 months? >>
Don't need the money, Teletrade is currently selling for less than eBay for these coins... I don't think I'm making my point very well. PR70DC coins are a money pit. In a year, I've seen the 1999-S PR70DC Silver Delaware drop in value from SALES PRICES of $17,000 to a current low of $2,300... that's in one year! How would you like to be one of the 54 owners of these coins that have owned them for over a year... that didn't make them themselves? Will they recover a little in the future... maybe? probably? In the same time, the business strikes are holding steady or increasing in SALES value (although most of the TOP POP are still below PCGS price guide). The only ones I've seen decrease in SALES value AND PCGS price guide value are TOP POP Jefferson Full Step nickels.
<< <i>We all collect different stuff for different reasons and we should collect what we want. These are only my views on how and what and why I collect. If some new collector was to ask, this is what I would tell them.
NEVER collect for investment. Sure, it can be debated, but the returns like all investments are risky. Why we still have as strong a market as we do right now in coins is beyond me. I was one saying the sky (price) will fall. I am still a believer that the market will adjust further. It is NOT in PCGS best interest to maintain the price guide all in red. I still think prices are getting and will continue to get softer. It simply defies logic as to why this hobby has not taken a hit given the rest of the economy.
NEVER collect Proof 70 coinage. Not worth the money when the numbers minted still exceed early mintage totals for the early years. And as said here, they can still submit a lot of proof sets and change whatever the pop report is today. A proof 70 Lincoln was on average a few years back pushing $600-$1000, not any more. Besides, for $400, I can get a heck of a nice MS pre 1920 Lincoln cent.
Back to that investment issue and in general collecting modern coins. Whole sets cost more to collect than they will EVER sell come the time for auction. I have seen several disappointed folks selling Lincoln Memorial sets and getting about 1/3 the price guide. I am betting the same is said for other denominations.
The mints demand to make a profit making specialized coins just for collectors beyond the annual proof sets is crazy. I am seriously thinking of selling my proof set run from about the 1970’s because they are selling for half what I bought them and besides taking up space, I see no need to keep them. If I want one, they are readily available cheap.
Again, not to bash modern collectors, but seriously, how many negatives does it take to understand they should only be collected for the fun/enjoyment and that is it. While many will say I made a ton of money selling moderns, you sold to folks who will not recover their cost let alone how many of those same coins sold can be resold at the same or even higher prices 5 years later, very few.
>>
I would hate to see people start buying moderns for investment. All collectibles
are extremely risky and modern coins are not an exception.
But the fact remains that the gains in moderns are simply spectacular when you
have the right coins. It doesn't take a rocket scientist to tell the good ones from
the bad ones; just a real collector.
If you don't like these coins you'd best stay out because there are lots of them
that are more than a little "faddish". But if you love moderns then you'll have
your own opinion and mostly be protected from the whims of others.
And yes, these coins are still advancing sharply (some of them are proofs) and
will probably do so for at least the next couple of decades.
good point. But you missed the OP's point that this never happens with classic coins.
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<< <i>and if they are silver proofs... check them refularly for spots. >>
Buy a cheap PR-69; avoid the expensive PR-70; and you won't have to worry about this spot foolishness. Besides if the thing grows spots it's too late anyway.
I guess the same can be said for buying MS64 Morgans and Saints--avoid the premium for "gem" quality. We know people can't tell the difference by the spread we get on a routing "guess the grade". --Jerry >>
I would be willing to bet that if I took 5 PF69 Silver Eagles, and 5 PF70 Silver Eagles and masked the grades and had people guess which ones were 70's and which were 69's and then took 5 64 Morgahs and 5 65 Morgans and did the same thing that the acuracy for grading the Morgans would be much higher than that of Moderns. In fact, I wouldn't be suprised if the rate on the moderns was not much better than flipping a coin pun intended.
Sorry, but there are no "shoulds" or "should nots" in collecting. (One possible exception - collectors should not criticize other collectors for what they collect or the reasons why they do so.)
For some collectors, part of the fun/enjoyment of collecting moderns is acquiring those that the owner hopes will appreciate in value over time.
My Adolph A. Weinman signature
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<< <i>and if they are silver proofs... check them refularly for spots. >>
Buy a cheap PR-69; avoid the expensive PR-70; and you won't have to worry about this spot foolishness. Besides if the thing grows spots it's too late anyway.
I guess the same can be said for buying MS64 Morgans and Saints--avoid the premium for "gem" quality. We know people can't tell the difference by the spread we get on a routing "guess the grade". --Jerry >>
I would be willing to bet that if I took 5 PF69 Silver Eagles, and 5 PF70 Silver Eagles and masked the grades and had people guess which ones were 70's and which were 69's and then took 5 64 Morgahs and 5 65 Morgans and did the same thing that the acuracy for grading the Morgans would be much higher than that of Moderns. In fact, I wouldn't be suprised if the rate on the moderns was not much better than flipping a coin pun intended. >>
If you asked modern experts about the classic coins and classic experts about the modern coins, you would get pretty sad results...note that it is the classic experts, not the modern experts, who always say they can't tell the difference between 69s and 70s.
You bring 5 69s and 5 70s for me to look at and I'll bring 5 64s and 5 65s for you to look and and we'll see who gets more right. PCGS only. --Jerry
Actually, one just sold a couple days ago around $3,300 with the juice - so prices are already up close to 50% off the low
Incidentally, that $17,000 figure was truly a fluke IMHO. Yes, a coin once fetched that sum in a Heritage sale, but at that time the trading level was closer to $10,000 or so. We all just shook our heads when we saw the $17,000 FUN sale auction price.
Wondercoin
I crossed an MS-66 1953-S Carver/Washington Commem over from NGC to PCGS. When it crossed it was the 14th coin graded 66 by PCGS.
Now the pops are 79/5. the price is down somewhere around $200 PCGS price guide.
When I bought my first 1951-P Carver/Washington Commem the pop in 65 was in the mid 120 range. It is now 166/36. The price has remained close to what it was then but can be purchased for less.
Demand brings things out of the woodwork. The biggest problem I see with moderns is the untapped supply.
Just as in classic coins when the price is up and demand up, things seem to show up out of nowhere.
Ron