SHTF....Lets get a definition we can all agree upon!

gecko109

From reading certain posts where SHTF is mentioned, I have made an observation. It seems we dont all use that term in the same manner...imagine that! For the purpose of future effective communication, its important we are all on the same page with the term. My definition may be well different than yours, but here goes nothing:

SHTF= The intense and most likely very rapid erosion of faith in the monetary systems of the world, most particularly the U.S. dollar.

This is my 1 liner definition. In other words, it has nothing to do with massive disasters, gangs of people roaming the streets with guns looking to pillage, or even a call to the national guard. When I think about the term SHTF, im not thinking anything even close to madmax type of situations. In my mind's eye, it simply involves the spontaneous reluctance of people worldwide to honor a paper dollar any longer. A global MONETARY meltdown if you will. If that were to happen, it might mean looters and times of desperation before the government comes up with a plan, but doesnt neccesarily HAVE to include that aspect.

When I say spontaneous, what I mean is that it will take just 1 trigger mechanism for it to set off a chain reaction. For instance, if China were to announce it no longer would take U.S. dollars as a form of payment on goods, then its fairly safe to say there will be a huge paper dump worldwide. The scariest statistic of all is that its estimated that between 50 and 75% of all paper money ever printed here is actually stored by foreign governments. Our monetary system is therefore in the control of other nations. If they begin dumping at once, look out!

OPA

In my opinion, a SHTF scenario, would be similar to the movie: "Road Runner."

Ooops....I meant to say: "Road Warrior" .... prequel to Mad Max ....

RedTiger

If we're citing movies, "Mad Max," is one that comes to mind.

Again, historically, the big events usually involve: a country losing a major war, a country splitting into two or more pieces with military violence involved, a major plague with 10%+ of the population dead in a short time period, a major famine where 30%+ of the food supply is gone in a short period of time. These kind of events often result in martial law, dual currency and/or new currency, repudiation of property rights including stocks, bonds, and real estate. About half the time, folks have to get out of Dodge, so those that are stockpiling bulky items (food, water, etc.) will only be able to use them half the time.

Weiss

To me, Mad Max is TEOTWAWKI.

SHTF is 20th century German hyperinflation.

RedTiger

<< <i>To me, Mad Max is TEOTWAWKI.

SHTF is 20th century German hyperinflation. >>



I had to look it up:
What is TEOTWAWKI ? The End Of The World As We Know It...

As for Germany, the situation was precipitated by the loss of World War I, and the punitive treaty agreed to at Versailles. If Germany hadn't loss the war, close to zero chance that their economy would have gone down that road.

RedTiger

I can't see another country rejecting US dollars unless, there is something else going on, such as a shooting war, or at least a serious trade war. Again, without a major catalyst in terms of a historic event (major war, famine or plague), most economies tend to muddle through.

Those counting on deficits alone to destroy the currency can look at the example of Japan. They are 10 to 20 years further along the deficit road than America. They've already had their government debt downgraded in rating, already have debt levels as a percentage of GDP well above what America is projected to have in 10 years. And yet, the Japanese economy muddles along, it hasn't hit the fan over there.

rpw

To me SHTF implies some type of loss of control by authority that is subsequently reestablished. One can have an economic crisis without the government losing the ability to maintain order. The Weimar Republic did not. Argentina did not. Greece is close to it. In TEOTWAKI control is never reestablished.

Cladiator

Too may scenarios to even go into it.

derryb

lack of local police protection/martial law. Katrina was pre-SHTF, right on the edge, but not quite there (probably because of the isolation of the incident). Had Katrina gone nationwide, definitely SHTF.

Bear

Some day, the people and the Government of this Country will learn:

1. We can not continue to buy everything from China.

2.We can not continue to offshore manufacturing and services and expect
Americans to buy the goods and services with nothing but low paying jobs.

3.We can not continue to allow financial institutions to play the exotic financial
games ,that merely inflate prices on commodities as well as rob J6P of his assets
and pension security.

4. We can not continue to allow the financial whizzes to play with the Nations financial
well being without a lot of these folks going to jail to do hard time.

5.We can not continue to allow empty regulatory legislation to pass which can not and will not
fix the problems it was passed to cure.

6. We really need some straight talk from all of our Nations Leaders about what is wrong and what
we need to do to fix it.

Wolf359

LIBOR or TED Spreads running wild would incinerate most of the large banks.

That's what I see happening first.

gsa1fan

I would like to know is the entire world so screwed up that they think the USD is a safe currency?

Possible SHTF if they/world realize how over drawn USA is?

ksammut

<< <i>From reading certain posts where SHTF is mentioned, I have made an observation. It seems we dont all use that term in the same manner...imagine that! For the purpose of future effective communication, its important we are all on the same page with the term. My definition may be well different than yours, but here goes nothing:

SHTF= The intense and most likely very rapid erosion of faith in the monetary systems of the world, most particularly the U.S. dollar.

This is my 1 liner definition. In other words, it has nothing to do with massive disasters, gangs of people roaming the streets with guns looking to pillage, or even a call to the national guard. When I think about the term SHTF, im not thinking anything even close to madmax type of situations. In my mind's eye, it simply involves the spontaneous reluctance of people worldwide to honor a paper dollar any longer. A global MONETARY meltdown if you will. If that were to happen, it might mean looters and times of desperation before the government comes up with a plan, but doesnt neccesarily HAVE to include that aspect.

When I say spontaneous, what I mean is that it will take just 1 trigger mechanism for it to set off a chain reaction. For instance, if China were to announce it no longer would take U.S. dollars as a form of payment on goods, then its fairly safe to say there will be a huge paper dump worldwide. The scariest statistic of all is that its estimated that between 50 and 75% of all paper money ever printed here is actually stored by foreign governments. Our monetary system is therefore in the control of other nations. If they begin dumping at once, look out! >>



I agree with your thoughts. SHTF would be a monetary meltodown. Probably a chain reaction should other countries need to be bailed out leading to a total world banking failure and or, the realization that the US can never repay it's debts. You can have this type of a scenario without people taking to the street - at least initially. As we get closer to the SHTF timeframe and once it is upon us, PM prices will have their biggest moves as a lot of money will be looking for a place to go. With PMs themselves and mining shares being so thinly traded (as compared to all equities and currency, the jump in prices for PMs and mining shares will be dramatic.

Taking some of your profit (timing) and then where to put that profit, will be the two hardest questions once the dramatic rise in prices take place. By then, we will hopefully have an idea if there is a chance of confiscation and/or some government artifical pricing of gold and silver and the possibility of nationalizing US mining companies. Usually, with any great calamity, comes opportunity. Having some of my portfolio invested in PMs, gives us a chance to take advantage of any new opportunities and to at least be better off than those who do not think or believe a SHTF situation could come about.

My guess is that if a true monetary meltown takes place or is about to take place, gold and possibly silver will be used as part of the new currency that will need to be created. The US will not be in the drivers seat like we have been in the past. The dollar will no longer be the reserve currency and we no longer own most of the gold. Other countries will play a big role in coming up with the new reserve currency. If PMs are part of that currency, it will be harder for the US government to threaten confiscation or create an artificial PM price although they could still nationalize the miners here in the US. PM prices would rise based upon how much of the new currency is backed by PMs.

If a plan to stabalize the monetary situation does not take place quickly, then you may have people taking to the streets. Since the new currency will replace the old currency, governments will be able to do some creative things in helping people get back some of their losses. They can make up the rules as they go to help avoid a rebellion.

calleocho

I think it would look similar to 30's in the US.

Justacommeman

20% national unemployement or no cable which ever comes first and the SWHTF..............rioting in the streets. MJ

Wolf359

I see the White House being surrounded by an angry mob if the SHTF. Not good.

keepdachange