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Congratulations to gold - New all time highs! $2800+!!!

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  • cohodkcohodk Posts: 19,063 ✭✭✭✭✭

    Is the correlation of gold to the dollar much different than the Sp500 to the dollar?

    Excuses are tools of the ignorant

    Knowledge is the enemy of fear

  • dcarrdcarr Posts: 8,412 ✭✭✭✭✭

    @cohodk said:
    Your chart shows a lifetime of underperformance.

    Not if you were born in 1999.

  • cohodkcohodk Posts: 19,063 ✭✭✭✭✭

    Screenshot from your link...

    Surging, crisis, terrifying, reset, orchestrated, collapse, worse.

    That's enough to want one to retreat to a bunker!!!

    Excuses are tools of the ignorant

    Knowledge is the enemy of fear

  • TwoSides2aCoinTwoSides2aCoin Posts: 44,249 ✭✭✭✭✭

    Seems like gold will outshine rhodium, soon enough. Palladium and platinum group metals just don't measure up. And the GSR is 80 to 1 on silver. Regroup.

  • TwoSides2aCoinTwoSides2aCoin Posts: 44,249 ✭✭✭✭✭

    @cohodk said:

    Screenshot from your link...

    Surging, crisis, terrifying, reset, orchestrated, collapse, worse.

    That's enough to want one to retreat to a bunker!!!

    Better buy more bullets. :joy:

  • inkdiverinkdiver Posts: 55 ✭✭✭

    Gold long term = amazing
    Miners short term = amazing
    Miners long term = ouch (especially vs physical gold)

  • roadrunnerroadrunner Posts: 28,303 ✭✭✭✭✭

    @inkdiver said:
    Gold long term = amazing
    Miners short term = amazing
    Miners long term = ouch (especially vs physical gold)

    Miners are very good in short spurts of several months at a time.....twice per year....but realizing any of them could go zero with mismanagement and national govt "tactics"....even in "sound" jurisdictions. I think they are a favorite whipping boy of the TBTF banks and FED to ensure that the idea of mining gold and silver should not be profitable for shareholders. And just in trading "games" they can ensure they don't too far out of line in price. Much easier for the market makers and big traders to control miners, when they blast off and then they dump big time. A lot easier to make money there (up or down) vs the bullion markets. And when miners stink, it tends to put a cloud or at least a barrier over the physical metal too. The huge amounts in gold and silver otc derivatives also puts a big weight on the metals' markets.

    Unless you're buying an explorer with inside info, and potential proven reserves, at dirt cheap.....nothing should just be bought and held long term. Too many swings. Too many puts and calls working against you. Naked shorts galore when needed. On the other hand, mining is a tough business where geo-political and enviro whims change on a dime. No big deal for a govt to confiscate mines in their country or to pull their permits. Happened too many times already in South America.

    Barbarous Relic No More, LSCC -GoldSeek--shadow stats--SafeHaven--321gold
  • blitzdudeblitzdude Posts: 5,886 ✭✭✭✭✭

    @TwoSides2aCoin said:

    @cohodk said:

    Screenshot from your link...

    Surging, crisis, terrifying, reset, orchestrated, collapse, worse.

    That's enough to want one to retreat to a bunker!!!

    Better buy more bullets. :joy:

    And tin foil. THKS!

  • derrybderryb Posts: 36,766 ✭✭✭✭✭
    edited April 14, 2023 8:33PM

    @GoldFinger1969 said:

    @ProofCollection said:
    There's a technical target for the next move on the Weekly timeframe of $2900-3000 which would probably hit in the next 1-2 years.

    That's EXTREMELY aggressive and would imply something major like a global incident or collapse in the dollar or crypto with $$$ going to gold.

    I hope you are wrong, I won't have all my Saints and Liberty Heads by then ! :D

    We're one step from WW3 and the petro dollar is getting pushed out the door. Cryptos do not yet compete with the dollar, they do draw investments away from gold as indicated by their recent mirroring of gold's gains.

    Loss of faith in central banks to fix problems that they created is what is driving gold and cryptos. Restore that faith (ain't gonna happen) and PMs and cryptos will drop accordingly.

    Predictions? It's pretty safe to day that while the DXY may get stronger (only when other currencies in the basket get uglier)
    the purchasing power of the dollar will continue to decline at a faster rate than in the past. Americans don't care how the dollar "ranks" against other currencies. They do care that is value is declinng. Since I believe strongly in the dollar's inverse relationship to gold it will continue its march to new highs. Thank the FED for internal dollar problems and war mongering leaders for the dollar's failure on the international scene.

    Remember, until just recently, foreign nations feared the repercussions of abandoning the dollar. The dollar's decline on the international stage indicates that this fear is waning, to a large degree because China and Russia are leading the economic war against the dollar. Historically the US military dealt with challenges to dollar hegemony as was clearly shown to Saddam Hussein and Omar Khadaffi. Not really an option (or is it?) against our two biggest military adversaries who are leading the attack on the dollar's international status. What is expediting the dollar dominance is that US "allies" are joining in on abandoning the dollar.

    One big reason is that US sanctions against Russia showed the world that their dollar investments were not as safe as believed. With the stroke of a pen the US stole dollar investments held by a foreign country, Why would any nation continue to hold dollars? Decades of nation building to control puppet allies is being wiped out in record time. Funny how rats always know to abandon a sinking ship.

    "Interest rates, the price of money, are the most important market. And, perversely, they’re the market that’s most manipulated by the Fed." - Doug Casey

  • derrybderryb Posts: 36,766 ✭✭✭✭✭
    edited April 14, 2023 1:18AM

    @blitzdude said:

    @TwoSides2aCoin said:

    Better buy more bullets. :joy:

    And tin foil. THKS!

    "The sky dollar is falling, the sky dollar is falling"

    Just another conspiracy theory becoming a reality. Like many early warnings many of them do.

    "Interest rates, the price of money, are the most important market. And, perversely, they’re the market that’s most manipulated by the Fed." - Doug Casey

  • meluaufeetmeluaufeet Posts: 764 ✭✭✭

    Any thoughts on GLD vs AAAU?

  • derrybderryb Posts: 36,766 ✭✭✭✭✭

    For gold paper I like GDXJ and GDX

    "Interest rates, the price of money, are the most important market. And, perversely, they’re the market that’s most manipulated by the Fed." - Doug Casey

  • cohodkcohodk Posts: 19,063 ✭✭✭✭✭

    @derryb said:

    One big reason is that US sanctions against Russia showed the world that their dollar investments were not as safe as believed. With the stroke of a pen the US stole dollar investments held by a foreign country

    Exactly as it should be.

    Excuses are tools of the ignorant

    Knowledge is the enemy of fear

  • GoldFinger1969GoldFinger1969 Posts: 1,706 ✭✭✭✭✭

    @cohodk said:
    Is the correlation of gold to the dollar much different than the Sp500 to the dollar?

    Totally.....correlations to the S&P 500 change over time.

  • GoldFinger1969GoldFinger1969 Posts: 1,706 ✭✭✭✭✭

    @derryb said:
    One big reason is that US sanctions against Russia showed the world that their dollar investments were not as safe as believed. With the stroke of a pen the US stole dollar investments held by a foreign country, Why would any nation continue to hold dollars? Decades of nation building to control puppet allies is being wiped out in record time. Funny how rats always know to abandon a sinking ship.

    The assets aren't stolen. They're frozen. Putin is an illegitimate ruler, a despot and thief. The money belongs to the Russian people.

  • cohodkcohodk Posts: 19,063 ✭✭✭✭✭

    @GoldFinger1969 said:

    @cohodk said:
    Is the correlation of gold to the dollar much different than the Sp500 to the dollar?

    Totally.....correlations to the S&P 500 change over time.

    Just as with gold?

    Excuses are tools of the ignorant

    Knowledge is the enemy of fear

  • jmski52jmski52 Posts: 22,791 ✭✭✭✭✭

    The assets aren't stolen. They're frozen. Putin is an illegitimate ruler, a despot and thief. The money belongs to the Russian people.

    And yet, there is no action against China, which constitutes a more viable threat to our security than Russia ever will.

    Q: Are You Printing Money? Bernanke: Not Literally

    I knew it would happen.
  • MS66MS66 Posts: 233 ✭✭✭

    Power does tend to corrupt.

    And not just the "bad guys."

  • GoldFinger1969GoldFinger1969 Posts: 1,706 ✭✭✭✭✭

    @jmski52 said:
    And yet, there is no action against China, which constitutes a more viable threat to our security than Russia ever will.

    Good point.

  • GoldFinger1969GoldFinger1969 Posts: 1,706 ✭✭✭✭✭

    @cohodk said:
    Just as with gold?

    Generally, a weaker dollar is bullish for gold as it means the Fed is cutting rates and/or inflation is rising and/or other currencies are appreciating which means gold is cheaper in their native currencies.

    The S&P 500 is totally different -- a falling dollar can be bullish or bearish. Also, the S&P 500 used to be 95% domestic profits and now it is only about 60% domestic.

  • blitzdudeblitzdude Posts: 5,886 ✭✭✭✭✭

    @jmski52 said:
    The assets aren't stolen. They're frozen. Putin is an illegitimate ruler, a despot and thief. The money belongs to the Russian people.

    And yet, there is no action against China, which constitutes a more viable threat to our security than Russia ever will.

    But Russia installed the previous nimrod. Please keep your continued toxic politics out of the discussion. God bless the metal of kings and god bless America! SMPR!

  • jmski52jmski52 Posts: 22,791 ✭✭✭✭✭
    edited May 13, 2023 5:24AM

    But Russia installed the previous nimrod. Please keep your continued toxic politics out of the discussion.

    Look in the mirror.

    Q: Are You Printing Money? Bernanke: Not Literally

    I knew it would happen.
  • cohodkcohodk Posts: 19,063 ✭✭✭✭✭

    @GoldFinger1969 said:

    @cohodk said:
    Just as with gold?

    Generally, a weaker dollar is bullish for gold as it means the Fed is cutting rates and/or inflation is rising and/or other currencies are appreciating which means gold is cheaper in their native currencies.

    The S&P 500 is totally different -- a falling dollar can be bullish or bearish. Also, the S&P 500 used to be 95% domestic profits and now it is only about 60% domestic.

    Interesting then as the performance of gold and the sp500 is nearly identical over the last 25 years.

    Excuses are tools of the ignorant

    Knowledge is the enemy of fear

  • derrybderryb Posts: 36,766 ✭✭✭✭✭

    @cohodk said:

    @GoldFinger1969 said:

    @cohodk said:
    Just as with gold?

    Generally, a weaker dollar is bullish for gold as it means the Fed is cutting rates and/or inflation is rising and/or other currencies are appreciating which means gold is cheaper in their native currencies.

    The S&P 500 is totally different -- a falling dollar can be bullish or bearish. Also, the S&P 500 used to be 95% domestic profits and now it is only about 60% domestic.

    Interesting then as the performance of gold and the sp500 is nearly identical over the last 25 years.

    Interesting in that you have bragged stocks over gold for the last ten years.

    "Interest rates, the price of money, are the most important market. And, perversely, they’re the market that’s most manipulated by the Fed." - Doug Casey

  • cohodkcohodk Posts: 19,063 ✭✭✭✭✭

    @derryb said:

    @cohodk said:

    @GoldFinger1969 said:

    @cohodk said:
    Just as with gold?

    Generally, a weaker dollar is bullish for gold as it means the Fed is cutting rates and/or inflation is rising and/or other currencies are appreciating which means gold is cheaper in their native currencies.

    The S&P 500 is totally different -- a falling dollar can be bullish or bearish. Also, the S&P 500 used to be 95% domestic profits and now it is only about 60% domestic.

    Interesting then as the performance of gold and the sp500 is nearly identical over the last 25 years.

    Interesting in that you have bragged stocks over gold for the last ten years.

    And they have, by more than 2x.

    Gold outperformed stocks the previous 10 and underperformed the 20 before that. Over the last 40 stocks have outperformed by 9x.

    Interesting that you extol gold while chastising stocks, even while knowing stocks have returned 2x more than gold over your lifetime.

    Excuses are tools of the ignorant

    Knowledge is the enemy of fear

  • derrybderryb Posts: 36,766 ✭✭✭✭✭

    @cohodk said:

    Interesting that you extol gold while chastising stocks, even while knowing stocks have returned 2x more than gold over your lifetime.

    anyone closely following the markets fully understands that fundamentals clearly show stocks are overpriced and gold is underpriced. Where do you want to be positioned when the everyone realizes this this? LOL

    "Interest rates, the price of money, are the most important market. And, perversely, they’re the market that’s most manipulated by the Fed." - Doug Casey

  • jmski52jmski52 Posts: 22,791 ✭✭✭✭✭

    derryb, don't you know that they don't use classical financial analysis anymore? Keynesians don't need no stinkin' fundamentals! Get with the program!

    Don't worry. The banking system has it under control. Isn't that their directive - to keep "everything" under control?

    Q: Are You Printing Money? Bernanke: Not Literally

    I knew it would happen.
  • cohodkcohodk Posts: 19,063 ✭✭✭✭✭

    @derryb said:

    @cohodk said:

    Interesting that you extol gold while chastising stocks, even while knowing stocks have returned 2x more than gold over your lifetime.

    anyone closely following the markets fully understands that fundamentals clearly show stocks are overpriced and gold is underpriced. Where do you want to be positioned when the everyone realizes this this? LOL

    Maybe. But you've been stating this for over a decade. Even you can't can't be wrong all the time. Maybe your getting closer now, but there's an awful lot of catching up to do.

    Excuses are tools of the ignorant

    Knowledge is the enemy of fear

  • derrybderryb Posts: 36,766 ✭✭✭✭✭
    edited May 15, 2023 8:39PM

    @cohodk said:

    @derryb said:

    @cohodk said:

    Interesting that you extol gold while chastising stocks, even while knowing stocks have returned 2x more than gold over your lifetime.

    anyone closely following the markets fully understands that fundamentals clearly show stocks are overpriced and gold is underpriced. Where do you want to be positioned when the everyone realizes this this? LOL

    Maybe. But you've been stating this for over a decade. Even you can't can't be wrong all the time. Maybe your getting closer now, but there's an awful lot of catching up to do.

    stocks have been overpriced and gold underpriced since the financial system was hijacked by the Federal Reserve Bank(ers), at least since 2008. I believe that is well over a decade. Juiced markets are beginning to dry out.

    "Interest rates, the price of money, are the most important market. And, perversely, they’re the market that’s most manipulated by the Fed." - Doug Casey

  • GoldFinger1969GoldFinger1969 Posts: 1,706 ✭✭✭✭✭
    edited May 15, 2023 5:53PM

    @cohodk said:
    Interesting then as the performance of gold and the sp500 is nearly identical over the last 25 years.

    If you mean total return, it's not a surprise: gold was $300 or so in the late-1990's.

  • GoldFinger1969GoldFinger1969 Posts: 1,706 ✭✭✭✭✭

    Stocks have NOT been "overpriced" since 2008. At times, valuations have been stretched -- notably late-2021.

    Based on earnings and interest rates, they have been Fairly Valued/High End of Normal Valuation with occasional stretches in Overvalued territory.

  • GoldFinger1969GoldFinger1969 Posts: 1,706 ✭✭✭✭✭

    @derryb said:

    anyone closely following the markets fully understands that fundamentals clearly show stocks are overpriced and gold is underpriced. Where do you want to be positioned when the everyone realizes this this? LOL

    And even if that is true -- and its doubtful (and I'm bullish on gold) -- can you wait for mean reversal if it takes 2 or 5 or 10 years to happen ? The market can remain irrational longer than you can remain solvent (JMK).

    Stocks are slightly overvalued if you believe rates are staying at current levels AND S&P EPS will decline about 5-10%. This is NOT 1999 or 2021 territory.

  • derrybderryb Posts: 36,766 ✭✭✭✭✭

    @GoldFinger1969 said:

    @derryb said:

    anyone closely following the markets fully understands that fundamentals clearly show stocks are overpriced and gold is underpriced. Where do you want to be positioned when the everyone realizes this this? LOL

    And even if that is true -- and its doubtful (and I'm bullish on gold) -- can you wait for mean reversal if it takes 2 or 5 or 10 years to happen ? The market can remain irrational longer than you can remain solvent (JMK).

    Stocks are slightly overvalued if you believe rates are staying at current levels AND S&P EPS will decline about 5-10%. This is NOT 1999 or 2021 territory.

    more like 2008 territory.

    "Interest rates, the price of money, are the most important market. And, perversely, they’re the market that’s most manipulated by the Fed." - Doug Casey

  • GoldFinger1969GoldFinger1969 Posts: 1,706 ✭✭✭✭✭

    @derryb said:
    more like 2008 territory.

    You clearly don't understand what happened in 2008. For starters, leverage at banks was 25-35:1. Today it is closer to 10:1.

    Being a perma-bear and apocalyptic on financial markets has worked for maybe 1-2 years out of the last 60.

  • blitzdudeblitzdude Posts: 5,886 ✭✭✭✭✭

    @GoldFinger1969 said:

    @derryb said:
    more like 2008 territory.

    You clearly don't understand what happened in 2008. For starters, leverage at banks was 25-35:1. Today it is closer to 10:1.

    Being a perma-bear and apocalyptic on financial markets has worked for maybe 1-2 years out of the last 60.

    LG, RGDS!!!

  • OPAOPA Posts: 17,118 ✭✭✭✭✭

    Congratulations to gold - New all time highs! $2050+!!!

    "This was but a fleeting moment?" If not, all you gold bugs should be "backing up the trucks."

    "Bongo drive 1984 Lincoln that looks like old coin dug from ground."
  • blitzdudeblitzdude Posts: 5,886 ✭✭✭✭✭

    @OPA said:
    Congratulations to gold - New all time highs! $2050+!!!

    "This was but a fleeting moment?" If not, all you gold bugs should be "backing up the trucks."

    Surprised $2K didn't stick for good this time but it's certainly better than life in the gutter. One look at premiums on the metal of kings makes it not feasible to back up the truck. RGDS!

  • percybpercyb Posts: 3,322 ✭✭✭✭

    In order to squeeze the premium out of coin prices a fund containing silver coins and a fund holding gold coins needs to be created. Then the funds could be sold or shorted against the metals, like stock options against stock. This could press out much of the premiums.

    "Poets are the unacknowledged legislators of the world." PBShelley
  • jmski52jmski52 Posts: 22,791 ✭✭✭✭✭

    Either gold is too high, or silver is loo low.

    Actually, for everything that's going on, both are too low.

    Q: Are You Printing Money? Bernanke: Not Literally

    I knew it would happen.
  • blitzdudeblitzdude Posts: 5,886 ✭✭✭✭✭

    @jmski52 said:
    Either gold is too high, or silver is loo low.

    Actually, for everything that's going on, both are too low.

    Gold is not high enough and gutter metal is severely overpriced. Of course that's nothing new, been that way for generations. RGDS!

  • ProofCollectionProofCollection Posts: 6,034 ✭✭✭✭✭
    edited May 24, 2023 5:19PM

    I'm always amused when people talk about what the price of something "should" be, as if they could ever have complete knowledge of all of the market dynamics and factors. I also have strong opinions about what the pricing of food at stadiums and theaters "should" be but the market has always proven me wrong. While there is compelling evidence of market manipulation, the fact remains that physical metal supplies are still and have always been (in my lifetime) readily available at varying premiums. Premiums for industrial sized silver bars have pretty much always remained reasonable, although premiums on certain silver products do become elevated from time to time. For example, premiums at APMEX on 1000oz bars today are roughly 10% which is not outrageous and does not indicate a lack of supply. To suggest that metal prices are artificially "too low" suggests that there are suppliers out there who are ready and willing to lose money on sales of silver unless everyone is selling out of desperation.

    It's easy to point to certain data points as bullish or bearish and extrapolate to a theoretical price, but it's impossible to know how much supply chain flexibility or counter-factors exist to oppose the price expectations of the metal itself, and then factor in the market dynamics of the measuring stick (for our discussion, typically the USD). Reality is what you can physically buy it for. If the spread between paper and physical gets too out of sync, market forces will step in to adjust supply or price of both. And if there was a real shortage of silver (or gold) prices would reflect that supply condition.

  • rte592rte592 Posts: 1,653 ✭✭✭✭✭

    @blitzdude said:

    @OPA said:
    Congratulations to gold - New all time highs! $2050+!!!

    "This was but a fleeting moment?" If not, all you gold bugs should be "backing up the trucks."

    Surprised $2K didn't stick for good this time but it's certainly better than life in the gutter. One look at premiums on the metal of kings makes it not feasible to back up the truck. RGDS!

    So your saying I shouldn't throw some plastic at gutter metal?

    I'm eyeballing a few vintage pieces.

  • jmski52jmski52 Posts: 22,791 ✭✭✭✭✭

    I'm always amused when people talk about what the price of something "should" be, as if they could ever have complete knowledge of all of the market dynamics and factors.

    I base my opinion on the notion that gov.com's debt issuance will keep pushing us into the high inflation zone, and that our problem with unfunded liabilities only points towards a higher rate of out-of-control deficit spending - and not that I am taking all of the market dynamics and factors into account. I don't think I'll be too wrong about the government's huge debt overhang being the overriding factor in higher precious metals and commodities prices for at least the next 5 years.

    To your point, of course the market demand/supply/supply chain fundamentals will be a factor. I don't even factor in any market manipulation these days. I stand by my long held position that I'd much rather have precious metals as my core asset base than any other asset. I'm very satisfied with the performance of my precious metals accumulations over the past 25 years, and I expect that I'll be even more satisfied when the debt bubble implodes.

    Q: Are You Printing Money? Bernanke: Not Literally

    I knew it would happen.
  • GoldminersGoldminers Posts: 3,904 ✭✭✭✭✭

    Someone explain why the dollar is going way up vs other currencies as we get closer to a short-term default? Gold dropping like a stone. Yes, some interest rates are up a little, but I thought the consensus was for gold to be a hedge against default and debt risk.

  • percybpercyb Posts: 3,322 ✭✭✭✭

    @Goldminers said:
    Someone explain why the dollar is going way up vs other currencies as we get closer to a short-term default? Gold dropping like a stone. Yes, some interest rates are up a little, but I thought the consensus was for gold to be a hedge against default and debt risk.

    The value of the dollar is up enabling gold lovers who hold dollars to buy gold at cheaper prices. If one like gold at $2050 one should like it better at $1950, no?

    "Poets are the unacknowledged legislators of the world." PBShelley
  • derrybderryb Posts: 36,766 ✭✭✭✭✭

    "Interest rates, the price of money, are the most important market. And, perversely, they’re the market that’s most manipulated by the Fed." - Doug Casey

  • derrybderryb Posts: 36,766 ✭✭✭✭✭

    @Goldminers said:
    Someone explain why the dollar is going way up vs other currencies as we get closer to a short-term default?

    Dollars are currently the prettiest pig at the ugly pig contest.

    Dollar goes up only because it's comparisons are going down.

    "Interest rates, the price of money, are the most important market. And, perversely, they’re the market that’s most manipulated by the Fed." - Doug Casey

  • blitzdudeblitzdude Posts: 5,886 ✭✭✭✭✭

    @rte592 said:

    @blitzdude said:

    @OPA said:
    Congratulations to gold - New all time highs! $2050+!!!

    "This was but a fleeting moment?" If not, all you gold bugs should be "backing up the trucks."

    Surprised $2K didn't stick for good this time but it's certainly better than life in the gutter. One look at premiums on the metal of kings makes it not feasible to back up the truck. RGDS!

    So your saying I shouldn't throw some plastic at gutter metal?

    I wouldn't throw anything at gutter metal cept maybe some cow manure.......on second thought not even that, cow dung actually has a real world purpose. RGDS!

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