The Swiss Franc is now worth more than a U.S. dollar, and the Canadian dollar is not far behind.
Numismatist. 50 year member ANA. Winner of four ANA Heath Literary Awards; three Wayte and Olga Raymond Literary Awards; Numismatist of the Year Award 2009, and Lifetime Achievement Award 2020. Winner numerous NLG Literary Awards.
It is nearly too cruel to mix LA in with Nadler - after all, LA said he had a re-entry point around $1000 and Nadler remains stuck in Bismark traffic somewhere near $700.
The biggest gaffe LA made was tangling with our roadrunner, after all. Beep, beep!
The biggest gaffe LA made was tangling with our roadrunner, after all. Beep, beep!
That could be said of anyone who tangles with rr!
Even when LA Money was recommending gold, it was that useless idea of having no more than a 5% weighting in the portfolio. That idea makes me nuts - if you do the sensitivity analysis for it, you see just how much it helps you. Not.
Q: Are You Printing Money? Bernanke: Not Literally
MoneyLA is cool with me. We were often saying the same basic thing, only in slightly different terminology. I'm sure our buddy Money is still sitting tight waiting for the eventual rise towards the $1650 Angel. I would doubt he got shook out during the $1225 to $1044 drop early this year. He's in it for the long term like most of us and likes to make an entrance at key inflection points. So we might see him back pretty soon.
But as Jmski52 mentions we might disagree on the % allocation given to gold and silver. I subscribe more closely to the Deadhorse or Jmski52 school of thought vs. the broker driven 5-10%. When it comes to PM's I don't try to "tangle," but prefer to "tango" whenever possible....and better yet, maybe even a touch of "contango. "
<< <i>So where's all the volitility we were supposed to get with the rise in gold >>
The volatility should be coming soon.... My chart only goes back to late 08 and we're at the lowest point in that timegrame (looking at GVZ). I think the helps indicate how solid this move is.
Unless you're watching it daily it's hard to understand. You mean yesterday's systematic drop into the lower $1270's making it look like gold might be finished this time around then followed by an immediate jump to $1290 within 10-15 min. wasn't volatile enough for you? I bet lots of millions of dollars were gained and lost in that short time period. There have been $20 swings days all over the place for the past few months. Then again, gold is only a mirror of the volatility in the dollar, which lately has been quite volatile. But if you're waiting for numerous $50 swing days, those are coming down the pike.
The term that comes to mind is the one I just heard uttered on CNBC - "competitive currency devaluations".
Nobody wants to lose their "share" of industrial exports, and nobody wants their currencies too high right now. It's a race to the bottom for fiat.
Of course, that means gold is going to continue to be more and more expensive. We haven't seen anything yet.
As Peter Schiff notes, Bernake is supporting the long bond by creating dollars to buy 30 year Treasury Bonds now, but all of that QE will ultimately destroy the last bastion of the dollar which is those very 30 year Treasury Bonds. Even the 10 year T-Bills are being affected. Soon they will get hammered as well.
Q: Are You Printing Money? Bernanke: Not Literally
Numismatist. 50 year member ANA. Winner of four ANA Heath Literary Awards; three Wayte and Olga Raymond Literary Awards; Numismatist of the Year Award 2009, and Lifetime Achievement Award 2020. Winner numerous NLG Literary Awards.
<< <i>I'm anxious to see the swings described by J. Sinclair some time ago, of $100 per day...
Reminds of of the line from a Bette Davis movie (Paraphrased because I don't remember it exactly) "Fasten your seat belts, we're in for a Bumpy ride" >>
I'm not. Anyone who tries or thinks they can trade that is out of their mind...algos will dominate.
I think 1300 has a good chance at holding today. It has to support levels under it now at 1300 and 1303. We got that retracement out of the way, so gold is ready to move higher. I see 1310-1312 as the high for today.
We all made predictions for this year back in Dec/January. Maybe time again to dust off that thread. I think I'm still in the ballpark.
A strange thing the other nite, probably two many of these ....but I sent the message below to a friend who does not follow the forums, it's the best guess I ever made concerning precious metals in my life, and as it says it was was based on gut =
I'm very thankful that folks here unselfishly share there hardwork and opinions with folks like me......it is appreciated
9/27/2010 7:30 PM
The gold & silver folks in the forums I follow were extremely quiet and non-committal today, like fear of the unknown....
my gut tells me that a medium to big swing is in the works for later in the week....
from the sidelines I'm thinking 22.00+ silver and 1308.00+ gold.....
As gold approaches the $1388 level, that marks when this rebound from $680 in Oct. 2008, is exactly 2X the drop from the $1033 peak in March 2008. At this point the Prechterites and Ron Rosens of the world are going to be in violation of their own Elliot Wave theories if they continue to call this move up a B wave corrective bounce. They will have to scrap their ABC corrective leg theory into something bullish. It will be interesting to see when/if we get there, how they approach it. Or maybe they will just redefine the EW rules to suit them. If we remove the very long shadows on the 2 days that gold peaked and bottomed, this 2X barrier would have already been achieved at $1310 ($1010 peak to $710 bottom = $300). The ratio is now at 1.86X as available Fib levels are running out. The EWavers are gonna have to start dusting off their bullish reference manuals once again. They made the same type of wrong call on the bounce from $255 in 2002 to $400+ in 2004. That was supposed to be a bear bounce as well on the way back to under gold<$200. Even when it bounced to $735, and then to $1033, it remained a "bear" bounce to them. And even as it has rebounded from $680 is successive steps, they have all been "bear" bounces. The rubber meets the road at $1388-$1400. And in any case, Prechter and company can sell a lot more subscriptions by switching their call at this point as most everyone else starts to awaken to reality.
I don't think we'll see MoneyLA until $1500. He likes a big entrance.
Hey, nice link to MoneyLA's site. It's as if he's here. I read his PM summary and have to disagree with some of the following. I think it's pretty obvious from commodity action over the past year that indeed we're seeing a combination of inflation and deflation, or what was called stagflation in the 1970's.
For those of you who bought gold three and four years ago at much lower levels -- when I was recommending the purchase of gold on KCAL-TV in Los Angeles -- you are now enjoying some solid long term gains. It never hurts to take profits. Remember, no one ever went broke selling at a profit. In my report called "Stock Market Notes" which you will find in the index of this web site, I talk about an event called slumpflation which is when inflation and recession happen simultaneously. Slumpflation is a rare event but gold could rally in a slumpflation event because of the inflation factor. In a recession by itself, the precious metals including gold tend to lose value. But in a slumpflation with strong inflation a gold rally could come as investors look for an inflation hedge. Gold could very well be that inflation hedge during slumpflation. The big question is: will inflation return in the face of the current financial crisis and the recessionary threat. So far, the threat is strictly from recession and not inflation.
In the next paragraph MoneyLA discusses the GSR:
Well, if you compare the ratio of today to the "historical ratio," then you can come to one of two conclusions: either silver is terribly undervalued, or gold is terribly overvalued. In the last few months the gold to silver ratio has ranged between 59-to-1 to 70-to-1 and that had been a relatively steady trading range. Now with silver prices rising and the gold to silver ratio dropping a bit, it might be a sign that silver is going to make a move. But even if silver does climb, remember silver is no where close to its all time record high price of about $50 an ounce set in 1980. This means there will be a lot of selling pressure should silver continue to climb. The selling pressure will come from long term holders trying to cut their losses since 1980.
Personally, I think long term holders of silver from 1980 are either long since dead, or if still alive are about as scarce as WW2 Japanese soldiers still hiding out in South Pacific Islands...but it makes for good copy. I'm not really counting on "waves of selling" from 55-90 year olds who hoarded silver in 1980 as silver reapproaches $35-$50. However that's still an important 30 yr. resistance band. Surprisingly, those that bought silver at $20-$21/oz back in March 2008 have been able to bail now if they so chose. And I'd have bet that those numbers were substantial yet it had little effect but to stall silver's ascent for little more than about a week or so.
I bought in 07 a little silver-130 2007 W ASEs MS for $21.95. What they are selling on ebay is a bargain these days considering a 2010 PF ASE will sell from the mint for $45.
Just wondering if I'm better off buying bullion for cash, or $1500 double eagles for credit. Don't have to pay the credit card back until the end of November...
Hey, nice link to MoneyLA's site. It's as if he's here.
Yes, I see that he's still in the business of telling people to absolutely limit their exposure to gold at 5%, just enough to keep you poor forever if gold goes to $5,000 (while conversely the dollar goes to $0.30). And he never quite gets around to saying what you should do with the other 95%!
GAAAAAAAAAAAAAAHHHH. Makes me crazy!!!
Q: Are You Printing Money? Bernanke: Not Literally
Comments
<< <i>Where's LA money? >>
Probably still waiting for the bull move to start...
Fred, Las Vegas, NV
The biggest gaffe LA made was tangling with our roadrunner, after all. Beep, beep!
Miles
That could be said of anyone who tangles with rr!
Even when LA Money was recommending gold, it was that useless idea of having no more than a 5% weighting in the portfolio. That idea makes me nuts - if you do the sensitivity analysis for it, you see just how much it helps you. Not.
I knew it would happen.
But as Jmski52 mentions we might disagree on the % allocation given to gold and silver. I subscribe more closely to the Deadhorse or Jmski52 school of thought vs. the broker driven 5-10%. When it comes to PM's I don't try to "tangle," but prefer to "tango" whenever possible....and better yet, maybe even a touch of "contango. "
roadrunner
<< <i>So where's all the volitility we were supposed to get with the rise in gold
The volatility should be coming soon.... My chart only goes back to late 08 and we're at the lowest point in that timegrame (looking at GVZ). I think the helps indicate how solid this move is.
roadrunner
Reminds of of the line from a Bette Davis movie (Paraphrased because I don't remember it exactly)
"Fasten your seat belts, we're in for a Bumpy ride"
that as much volitility.
<< <i>$11 spike, wow! >>
...and today so far it's up $16.50...
Nobody wants to lose their "share" of industrial exports, and nobody wants their currencies too high right now. It's a race to the bottom for fiat.
Of course, that means gold is going to continue to be more and more expensive. We haven't seen anything yet.
As Peter Schiff notes, Bernake is supporting the long bond by creating dollars to buy 30 year Treasury Bonds now, but all of that QE will ultimately destroy the last bastion of the dollar which is those very 30 year Treasury Bonds. Even the 10 year T-Bills are being affected. Soon they will get hammered as well.
I knew it would happen.
That phase sounds more palatable to the masses than "Fiat race to the bottom"
It's creeping up!
<< <i>I'm anxious to see the swings described by J. Sinclair some time ago, of $100 per day...
Reminds of of the line from a Bette Davis movie (Paraphrased because I don't remember it exactly)
"Fasten your seat belts, we're in for a Bumpy ride" >>
I'm not. Anyone who tries or thinks they can trade that is out of their mind...algos will dominate.
Free Trial
I agree that it's not a conducive environment for trading.
<< <i>Right now gold is doing the "Hanes Maneuver." >>
<< <i>It's creeping up! >>
Successful Trades: Swampboy,
<< <i>Well, it hit even sooner than I expected.... and it looks as if it could hold. The next plateau will be $1350. Cheers, RickO >>
Actually, the next significant resistance level will be 1330-1340.
roadrunner
(x2,Meltdown),cajun,Swampboy,SeaEagleCoins,InYHWHWeTrust, bstat1020,Spooly,timrutnat,oilstates200, vpr, guitarwes,
mariner67, and Mikes coins
We all made predictions for this year back in Dec/January. Maybe time again to dust off that thread. I think I'm still in the ballpark.
A strange thing the other nite, probably two many of these
I'm very thankful that folks here unselfishly share there hardwork and opinions with folks like me......it is appreciated
9/27/2010 7:30 PM
The gold & silver folks in the forums I follow were extremely quiet and non-committal today, like fear of the unknown....
my gut tells me that a medium to big swing is in the works for later in the week....
from the sidelines I'm thinking 22.00+ silver and 1308.00+ gold.....
based on gut......no facts, no stats..... [i]
<< <i>When I sell my PMs I am going to buy one of these!COOL! >>
I did not know they were doing this, that would be cool.
Successful Trades: Swampboy,
https://www.pcgs.com/setregistry/gold/liberty-head-2-1-gold-major-sets/liberty-head-2-1-gold-basic-set-circulation-strikes-1840-1907-cac/alltimeset/268163
<< <i>I read in last weekends Financial Times of a $1,450 prediction for 2011. Doesn't seem much of a stretch from today's record...ten percent. >>
The term parabolic is beginning to cross a lot of people's minds.
As gold approaches the $1388 level, that marks when this rebound from $680 in Oct. 2008, is exactly 2X the drop from the $1033 peak in March 2008. At this point the Prechterites and Ron Rosens of the world are going to be in violation of their own Elliot Wave theories if they continue to call this move up a B wave corrective bounce. They will have to scrap their ABC corrective leg theory into something bullish. It will be interesting to see when/if we get there, how they approach it. Or maybe they will just redefine the EW rules to suit them. If we remove the very long shadows on the 2 days that gold peaked and bottomed, this 2X barrier would have already been achieved at $1310 ($1010 peak to $710 bottom = $300). The ratio is now at 1.86X as available Fib levels are running out. The EWavers are gonna have to start dusting off their bullish reference manuals once again. They made the same type of wrong call on the bounce from $255 in 2002 to $400+ in 2004. That was supposed to be a bear bounce as well on the way back to under gold<$200. Even when it bounced to $735, and then to $1033, it remained a "bear" bounce to them. And even as it has rebounded from $680 is successive steps, they have all been "bear" bounces. The rubber meets the road at $1388-$1400. And in any case, Prechter and company can sell a lot more subscriptions by switching their call at this point as most everyone else starts to awaken to reality.
I don't think we'll see MoneyLA until $1500. He likes a big entrance.
roadrunner
<< <i>
I don't think we'll see MoneyLA until $1500. He likes a big entrance.
roadrunner >>
also some good tips on video poker here, too
Box of 20
For those of you who bought gold three and four years ago at much lower levels -- when I was recommending the purchase of gold on KCAL-TV in Los Angeles -- you are now enjoying some solid long term gains. It never hurts to take profits. Remember, no one ever went broke selling at a profit. In my report called "Stock Market Notes" which you will find in the index of this web site, I talk about an event called slumpflation which is when inflation and recession happen simultaneously. Slumpflation is a rare event but gold could rally in a slumpflation event because of the inflation factor. In a recession by itself, the precious metals including gold tend to lose value. But in a slumpflation with strong inflation a gold rally could come as investors look for an inflation hedge. Gold could very well be that inflation hedge during slumpflation. The big question is: will inflation return in the face of the current financial crisis and the recessionary threat. So far, the threat is strictly from recession and not inflation.
In the next paragraph MoneyLA discusses the GSR:
Well, if you compare the ratio of today to the "historical ratio," then you can come to one of two conclusions: either silver is terribly undervalued, or gold is terribly overvalued. In the last few months the gold to silver ratio has ranged between 59-to-1 to 70-to-1 and that had been a relatively steady trading range. Now with silver prices rising and the gold to silver ratio dropping a bit, it might be a sign that silver is going to make a move. But even if silver does climb, remember silver is no where close to its all time record high price of about $50 an ounce set in 1980. This means there will be a lot of selling pressure should silver continue to climb. The selling pressure will come from long term holders trying to cut their losses since 1980.
Personally, I think long term holders of silver from 1980 are either long since dead, or if still alive are about as scarce as WW2 Japanese soldiers still hiding out in South Pacific Islands...but it makes for good copy. I'm not really counting on "waves of selling" from 55-90 year olds who hoarded silver in 1980 as silver reapproaches $35-$50. However that's still an important 30 yr. resistance band. Surprisingly, those that bought silver at $20-$21/oz back in March 2008 have been able to bail now if they so chose. And I'd have bet that those numbers were substantial yet it had little effect but to stall silver's ascent for little more than about a week or so.
roadrunner
Box of 20
Yes, I see that he's still in the business of telling people to absolutely limit their exposure to gold at 5%, just enough to keep you poor forever if gold goes to $5,000 (while conversely the dollar goes to $0.30). And he never quite gets around to saying what you should do with the other 95%!
GAAAAAAAAAAAAAAHHHH. Makes me crazy!!!
I knew it would happen.