In my view the key is to predict what will happen in November. It seems right now fairly certain what's going to happen.
I think beginning in January, there will be a strong effort to keep inflation low. Opening up the oil spigots, creating peace around the world. and other factors should contribute to that. Which doesn't bode well for using gold or silver as the best investment opportunity.
That being said, if you're determined to invest in gold and silver, I believe the best way to do it moving forward would be in the form of coins. Gain numismatic value as folks will have more money in their pockets to buy collectibles.
@stevek said:
In my view the key is to predict what will happen in November. It seems right now fairly certain what's going to happen.
No.....the "key" is not what happens in November. It rarely is.
Fundamentals will out for stocks, bonds, and even gold.
I think beginning in January, there will be a strong effort to keep inflation low. Opening up the oil spigots, creating >peace around the world. and other factors should contribute to that. Which doesn't bode well for using gold or >silver as the best investment opportunity.
I don't see China, North Korea, and Iran holding hands with us singing "Kumbiya !!"
That being said, if you're determined to invest in gold and silver, I believe the best way to do it moving forward >would be in the form of coins. Gain numismatic value as folks will have more money in their pockets to buy >collectibles.
Agreed.....I have not been shy talking up gold coins, particularly the biggies: Saint-Gaudens and Liberty Head Double Eagles, from pure bullion substitutes to those with modest (~20%) premiums to gold and some numismatic premium (i.e., about equal to an MS-65 1924 Saint).
@stevek said:
In my view the key is to predict what will happen in November. It seems right now fairly certain what's going to happen.
I think beginning in January, there will be a strong effort to keep inflation low. Opening up the oil spigots, creating peace around the world. and other factors should contribute to that. Which doesn't bode well for using gold or silver as the best investment opportunity.
That being said, if you're determined to invest in gold and silver, I believe the best way to do it moving forward would be in the form of coins. Gain numismatic value as folks will have more money in their pockets to buy collectibles.
I'm not sure it's so easy to predict what will happen. A decent theory is that the fed and PTB will "keep things together" until the election is over and then stop the alleged manipulation and let all markets seek price discovery which could be chaotic depending on how artificial you think they might be now or a few months from now.
The betting markets are strongly predicting a Trump win at the moment in which case I would expect he would have a strong desire to "juice" the economy via low interest rates and other measures; however, that will (IMO) cause inflation to come roaring back. I would assume he would get his way on interest rates but the private federal reserve can do what they want, although the pres does get to appoint the federal reserve chair I believe. The driver for that inflation is probably the housing market which has a ton of pent up demand should rates fall a full point or two. Such relief would also help relieve pressure on the commercial real estate sector too.
I don't know... I could make a case for both scenarios I think, but I think we all know the long term trend is that PMs will keep going up.
@GoldFinger1969 said:
Ray Dalio of Bridgewater talking about gold Tuesday on CNBC. Says many are underweight.
Many what? Bars? Coins? People who handle gold also have a scale handy.
Worry is the interest you pay on a debt you may not owe.
"Paper money eventually returns to its intrinsic value---zero."----Voltaire
"Everything you say should be true, but not everything true should be said."----Voltaire
@stevek said:
In my view the key is to predict what will happen in November. It seems right now fairly certain what's going to happen.
I think beginning in January, there will be a strong effort to keep inflation low. Opening up the oil spigots, creating peace around the world. and other factors should contribute to that. Which doesn't bode well for using gold or silver as the best investment opportunity.
That being said, if you're determined to invest in gold and silver, I believe the best way to do it moving forward would be in the form of coins. Gain numismatic value as folks will have more money in their pockets to buy collectibles.
I'm not sure it's so easy to predict what will happen. A decent theory is that the fed and PTB will "keep things together" until the election is over and then stop the alleged manipulation and let all markets seek price discovery which could be chaotic depending on how artificial you think they might be now or a few months from now.
The betting markets are strongly predicting a Trump win at the moment in which case I would expect he would have a strong desire to "juice" the economy via low interest rates and other measures; however, that will (IMO) cause inflation to come roaring back. I would assume he would get his way on interest rates but the private federal reserve can do what they want, although the pres does get to appoint the federal reserve chair I believe. The driver for that inflation is probably the housing market which has a ton of pent up demand should rates fall a full point or two. Such relief would also help relieve pressure on the commercial real estate sector too.
I don't know... I could make a case for both scenarios I think, but I think we all know the long term trend is that PMs will keep going up.
The proposed policies are extremely inflationary. Hopefully the markets will push back enough to keep it contained.
Once you learn to control something/people you never relinquish that control. Market manipulation will only get worse until the rule of law is invoked by the invokers.
"How many times can a man turn his head and pretend he just doesn’t see?” - Bob Dylan
@PerryHall said:
Many what? Bars? Coins? People who handle gold also have a scale handy.
I can't recall, not sure he said either. Check CNBC for the interview.
He would probably be in favor of personal ownership of the physical gold although a guy like him probably needs to use a bank or brokerage firm. But maybe not....he could just keep gold in a room at his mansion or at a storage place. He mentioned 10% for some investors but not sure he himself has that much (he also mentioned BTC).
@stevek said:
In my view the key is to predict what will happen in November. It seems right now fairly certain what's going to happen.
No.....the "key" is not what happens in November. It rarely is.
Keep in mind that depending on the particular market, sometimes a "current price" is actually an anticipated value for the future.
So prices now trading could very well be in anticipation of a November event. Of course if that November event doesn't happen as expected, then the price could precipitously fall or markedly rise accordingly.
@stevek said:
In my view the key is to predict what will happen in November. It seems right now fairly certain what's going to happen.
No.....the "key" is not what happens in November. It rarely is.
Keep in mind that depending on the particular market, sometimes a "current price" is actually an anticipated value for the future.
So prices now trading could very well be in anticipation of a November event. Of course if that November event doesn't happen as expected, then the price could precipitously fall or markedly rise accordingly.
It's never easy is it? 😉
Hell of a lot more going on in the world than November events in "Merica. Last I checked the Metal of Kings was a "Universal" precious metal. RGDS!
@stevek said:
In my view the key is to predict what will happen in November. It seems right now fairly certain what's going to happen.
No.....the "key" is not what happens in November. It rarely is.
Keep in mind that depending on the particular market, sometimes a "current price" is actually an anticipated value for the future.
So prices now trading could very well be in anticipation of a November event. Of course if that November event doesn't happen as expected, then the price could precipitously fall or markedly rise accordingly.
It's never easy is it? 😉
Hell of a lot more going on in the world than November events in "Merica. Last I checked the Metal of Kings was a "Universal" precious metal. RGDS!
Yes, but let's refer to the value of a dollar and how much it can buy.
One quick example. Sort of like a 5 cent candy bar in the 1960's, now sells for around a dollar, and it's smaller in size. There may be a chart or graph out there illustrating the deflated value of a dollar today is at least in some proportion, equivalent to the rise in gold prices during this same time.
The traditional adage concerning the price of gold is that it's a "hedge against inflation" and in my opinion that still holds true. Barring any crazy events, foreign or domestic.
I do believe whoever wins in November that the underlying inflation rate will be HIGHER than the 2% wanted by the Fed (Powell or someone else leading it).
I don't think the bond market has taken that into account. Certainly, not the 10-year.
@stevek said:
In my view the key is to predict what will happen in November. It seems right now fairly certain what's going to
One quick example. Sort of like a 5 cent candy bar in the 1960's, now sells for around a dollar, and it's smaller in size. There may be a chart or graph out there illustrating the deflated value of a dollar today is at least in some proportion,
@stevek said:
Recently the price of gold is acting like the Big Boys know who's going to win in November.
World stability, low inflation, economic boom in the US, certainly will not help increase the price of gold.
Dude what's the continued obsession with November? Gold could care less about what puppet wins the November election. It's a big world out there. THKS!
@stevek said:
Recently the price of gold is acting like the Big Boys know who's going to win in November.
World stability, low inflation, economic boom in the US, certainly will not help increase the price of gold.
Dude what's the continued obsession with November? Gold could care less about what puppet wins the November election. It's a big world out there. THKS!
Yes it's a big world, but the US is still the big dog. 😉
according to Gregory Shearer, an analyst at JPMorgan Chase & Co. Geopolitical tensions, the growing US deficit, reserve bank diversification and inflation hedging have all driven bullion prices higher, “these factors likely endure regardless of the election outcome but could be further magnified under a Trump 2.0 or ‘red wave’ scenario,” he wrote July 24
A number of respondents to the MLIV Pulse survey seemed to agree: “All I can see are severe disruptions to markets and trade, and rapid increases” in the US national debt, one said
according to Gregory Shearer, an analyst at JPMorgan Chase & Co. Geopolitical tensions, the growing US deficit, reserve bank diversification and inflation hedging have all driven bullion prices higher, “these factors likely endure regardless of the election outcome but could be further magnified under a Trump 2.0 or ‘red wave’ scenario,” he wrote July 24
A number of respondents to the MLIV Pulse survey seemed to agree: “All I can see are severe disruptions to markets and trade, and rapid increases” in the US national debt, one said
I don't think particular company stocks are permitted to be discussed on this forum, so I shall not do that. That being said, my main point is if a certain event happens in November, what is the best move forward to maximize investment profits? Stocks or gold?
Seems clear to me that the best would be stocks, ETF's, etc.
according to Gregory Shearer, an analyst at JPMorgan Chase & Co. Geopolitical tensions, the growing US deficit, reserve bank diversification and inflation hedging have all driven bullion prices higher, “these factors likely endure regardless of the election outcome but could be further magnified under a Trump 2.0 or ‘red wave’ scenario,” he wrote July 24
A number of respondents to the MLIV Pulse survey seemed to agree: “All I can see are severe disruptions to markets and trade, and rapid increases” in the US national debt, one said
I don't think particular company stocks are permitted to be discussed on this forum, so I shall not do that. That being said, my main point is if a certain event happens in November, what is the best move forward to maximize investment profits? Stocks or gold?
Seems clear to me that the best would be stocks, ETF's, etc.
Assets benefit from inflation. The rich own assets. The line is straight.
@jmski52 said:
The banks are all in deep trouble because they've all held bonds as their main reserves. Nice job, Fed.
Bonds that are guaranteed to mature at full par value?
If they're held until maturity. What if there's a liquidity crunch and they need to sell them?
What if they aren't?
That's always the narrative....if, if, if.
If the queen had balls she'd be king.
Well as I understand it, that's been the cause of bank failures. They have a bank run and then have to liquidate and the losses are too great to stay in business. Didn't Silicon Valley Bank have that problem?
Debt creation is going exponential, and that won’t be good for your bonds.
What will hurt dollar paper promise bonds (if maturity occurs before default) is the loss of purchasing power (while all those dollars were tied up in a bond) that caused by creating Trillion$ to service that debt. Default is the ultimate result of runaway money creation.
"Future Value of Money" should become part of all curriculums.
"How many times can a man turn his head and pretend he just doesn’t see?” - Bob Dylan
@jmski52 said:
The banks are all in deep trouble because they've all held bonds as their main reserves. Nice job, Fed.
Bonds that are guaranteed to mature at full par value?
And what will "future value of money" do to that face (par) value. Will tomorrow's matured bond buy less than the dollars used when purchasing to purchase it? Will inflation dictate that the durable good (washing machine?) you need was a better buy today than waiting for the bond to mature to buy it?
One should always consider inflation rate vs. interest rate. When doing so consider the inflation you are actually experiencing, not the inflation you are told you are experiencing.
"How many times can a man turn his head and pretend he just doesn’t see?” - Bob Dylan
@jmski52 said:
The banks are all in deep trouble because they've all held bonds as their main reserves. Nice job, Fed.
Bonds that are guaranteed to mature at full par value?
And what will "future value of money" do to that face (par) value. Will tomorrow's matured bond buy less than the dollars used when purchasing to purchase it? Will inflation dictate that the durable good (washing machine?) you need was a better buy today than waiting for the bond to mature to buy it?
One should always consider inflation rate vs. interest rate. When doing so consider the inflation you are actually experiencing, not the inflation you are told you are experiencing.
One should always consider the income stream and interest payments. That interest pays for washing machines, chicken wings, chardonnay, ASEs and car insurance..
I know you not used to collecting interest, but it is a real thing. Even jmski would be surprised.
Jmski, what is the weighted average maturity of the bonds on banks balance sheets. This is an important question to your thesis. Do you know the answer?
@cohodk said:
Jmski, what is the weighted average maturity of the bonds on banks balance sheets. This is an important question >to your thesis. Do you know the answer?
While it varies, for most banks it is 4-7 years duration (a better measure of interest rate sensitivity).
The massive rise in yields since 2021 did very little damage: 3 banks. Even without doing ANYTHING, 25% of the average bank's portfolio has matured since the Silicon Valley Bank implosion and is reinvested at NICE YIELDS.
Those who do not understand banking are destined to....
@ProofCollection said:
Well as I understand it, that's been the cause of bank failures. They have a bank run and then have to liquidate and >the losses are too great to stay in business. Didn't Silicon Valley Bank have that problem?
They had a problem with their liabilities because 40% of their deposits left within hours. The rise in rates itself was manageable.
The nature of banking is illiquid assets (think IT'S A WONDERFUL LIFE and Bailey Savings & Loan) and that is why you need The Fed as the lender of last resort.
Comments
In my view the key is to predict what will happen in November. It seems right now fairly certain what's going to happen.
I think beginning in January, there will be a strong effort to keep inflation low. Opening up the oil spigots, creating peace around the world. and other factors should contribute to that. Which doesn't bode well for using gold or silver as the best investment opportunity.
That being said, if you're determined to invest in gold and silver, I believe the best way to do it moving forward would be in the form of coins. Gain numismatic value as folks will have more money in their pockets to buy collectibles.
No.....the "key" is not what happens in November. It rarely is.
Fundamentals will out for stocks, bonds, and even gold.
I don't see China, North Korea, and Iran holding hands with us singing "Kumbiya !!"
Agreed.....I have not been shy talking up gold coins, particularly the biggies: Saint-Gaudens and Liberty Head Double Eagles, from pure bullion substitutes to those with modest (~20%) premiums to gold and some numismatic premium (i.e., about equal to an MS-65 1924 Saint).
I'm not sure it's so easy to predict what will happen. A decent theory is that the fed and PTB will "keep things together" until the election is over and then stop the alleged manipulation and let all markets seek price discovery which could be chaotic depending on how artificial you think they might be now or a few months from now.
The betting markets are strongly predicting a Trump win at the moment in which case I would expect he would have a strong desire to "juice" the economy via low interest rates and other measures; however, that will (IMO) cause inflation to come roaring back. I would assume he would get his way on interest rates but the private federal reserve can do what they want, although the pres does get to appoint the federal reserve chair I believe. The driver for that inflation is probably the housing market which has a ton of pent up demand should rates fall a full point or two. Such relief would also help relieve pressure on the commercial real estate sector too.
I don't know... I could make a case for both scenarios I think, but I think we all know the long term trend is that PMs will keep going up.
Ray Dalio of Bridgewater talking about gold Tuesday on CNBC. Says many are underweight.
Many what? Bars? Coins? People who handle gold also have a scale handy.
Worry is the interest you pay on a debt you may not owe.
"Paper money eventually returns to its intrinsic value---zero."----Voltaire
"Everything you say should be true, but not everything true should be said."----Voltaire
The proposed policies are extremely inflationary. Hopefully the markets will push back enough to keep it contained.
Knowledge is the enemy of fear
Once you learn to control something/people you never relinquish that control. Market manipulation will only get worse until the rule of law is invoked by the invokers.
"How many times can a man turn his head and pretend he just doesn’t see?” - Bob Dylan
I can't recall, not sure he said either. Check CNBC for the interview.
He would probably be in favor of personal ownership of the physical gold although a guy like him probably needs to use a bank or brokerage firm. But maybe not....he could just keep gold in a room at his mansion or at a storage place. He mentioned 10% for some investors but not sure he himself has that much (he also mentioned BTC).
Keep in mind that depending on the particular market, sometimes a "current price" is actually an anticipated value for the future.
So prices now trading could very well be in anticipation of a November event. Of course if that November event doesn't happen as expected, then the price could precipitously fall or markedly rise accordingly.
It's never easy is it? 😉
Hell of a lot more going on in the world than November events in "Merica. Last I checked the Metal of Kings was a "Universal" precious metal. RGDS!
The whole worlds off its rocker, buy Gold™.
Yes, but let's refer to the value of a dollar and how much it can buy.
One quick example. Sort of like a 5 cent candy bar in the 1960's, now sells for around a dollar, and it's smaller in size. There may be a chart or graph out there illustrating the deflated value of a dollar today is at least in some proportion, equivalent to the rise in gold prices during this same time.
The traditional adage concerning the price of gold is that it's a "hedge against inflation" and in my opinion that still holds true. Barring any crazy events, foreign or domestic.
I do believe whoever wins in November that the underlying inflation rate will be HIGHER than the 2% wanted by the Fed (Powell or someone else leading it).
I don't think the bond market has taken that into account. Certainly, not the 10-year.
I think by the end of the month it will be $2500
Try $2 plus.
Recently the price of gold is acting like the Big Boys know who's going to win in November.
World stability, low inflation, economic boom in the US, certainly will not help increase the price of gold.
They gonna shut the global economy down again?
Knowledge is the enemy of fear
Dude what's the continued obsession with November? Gold could care less about what puppet wins the November election. It's a big world out there. THKS!
The whole worlds off its rocker, buy Gold™.
Yes it's a big world, but the US is still the big dog. 😉
.
Gold, Not Dollar, Is the Best Trump Trade, Survey Shows https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2024-07-29/gold-is-the-besttrump-trade-survey-shows
according to Gregory Shearer, an analyst at JPMorgan Chase & Co. Geopolitical tensions, the growing US deficit, reserve bank diversification and inflation hedging have all driven bullion prices higher, “these factors likely endure regardless of the election outcome but could be further magnified under a Trump 2.0 or ‘red wave’ scenario,” he wrote July 24
A number of respondents to the MLIV Pulse survey seemed to agree: “All I can see are severe disruptions to markets and trade, and rapid increases” in the US national debt, one said
Knowledge is the enemy of fear
I don't think particular company stocks are permitted to be discussed on this forum, so I shall not do that. That being said, my main point is if a certain event happens in November, what is the best move forward to maximize investment profits? Stocks or gold?
Seems clear to me that the best would be stocks, ETF's, etc.
Assets benefit from inflation. The rich own assets. The line is straight.
Knowledge is the enemy of fear
Gold will benefit from coming rate cuts. Lock in those CDs soon.
"How many times can a man turn his head and pretend he just doesn’t see?” - Bob Dylan
Jmski gonna disagree. Haha.
Knowledge is the enemy of fear
I'm with Cohodk on this one.
Two wrongs make a right?
"How many times can a man turn his head and pretend he just doesn’t see?” - Bob Dylan
Yes...gold can rise when rates fall, however, we were referring to jmksi agreeing with you to lock in CD rates.
Your chart seems to omit the 1980s to early 1990s when both rates and gold dropped.
Knowledge is the enemy of fear
The banks are all in deep trouble because they've all held bonds as their main reserves. Nice job, Fed.
I knew it would happen.
Bonds that are guaranteed to mature at full par value?
Knowledge is the enemy of fear
If they're held until maturity. What if there's a liquidity crunch and they need to sell them?
Bonds that are guaranteed to mature at full par value?
Yes, those bonds that are guaranteed to lose their purchasing power by the time that they mature.
Debt creation is going exponential, and that won’t be good for your bonds.
I knew it would happen.
What if they aren't?
That's always the narrative....if, if, if.
If the queen had balls she'd be king.
Knowledge is the enemy of fear
Well as I understand it, that's been the cause of bank failures. They have a bank run and then have to liquidate and the losses are too great to stay in business. Didn't Silicon Valley Bank have that problem?
"If" is why the smart ones employ risk assessment.
"How many times can a man turn his head and pretend he just doesn’t see?” - Bob Dylan
What will hurt dollar paper promise bonds (if maturity occurs before default) is the loss of purchasing power (while all those dollars were tied up in a bond) that caused by creating Trillion$ to service that debt. Default is the ultimate result of runaway money creation.
"Future Value of Money" should become part of all curriculums.
"How many times can a man turn his head and pretend he just doesn’t see?” - Bob Dylan
And what will "future value of money" do to that face (par) value. Will tomorrow's matured bond buy less than the dollars used when purchasing to purchase it? Will inflation dictate that the durable good (washing machine?) you need was a better buy today than waiting for the bond to mature to buy it?
One should always consider inflation rate vs. interest rate. When doing so consider the inflation you are actually experiencing, not the inflation you are told you are experiencing.
"How many times can a man turn his head and pretend he just doesn’t see?” - Bob Dylan
Just shy of $2,500.........
yep, just checked, up 1.58% with no fed funds rate hike until after the election.
However, silver up 2.15%. Where ya wanna be when rates start dropping?
"How many times can a man turn his head and pretend he just doesn’t see?” - Bob Dylan
Just hit $2500!
They've already dropped 75 bps since end of April. Been a great ride for those who bought bonds then.
Knowledge is the enemy of fear
One should always consider the income stream and interest payments. That interest pays for washing machines, chicken wings, chardonnay, ASEs and car insurance..
I know you not used to collecting interest, but it is a real thing. Even jmski would be surprised.
Knowledge is the enemy of fear
I know you not used to collecting interest, but it is a real thing. Even jmski would be surprised.
jmski doesn't need to tie his money up in a bank that's probably going under under anyway (without a bailout), heh.
I knew it would happen.
While not a hedge on inflation, interest income is no stranger to me. I use idle money to acquire it while maintaining some liquidity.
"How many times can a man turn his head and pretend he just doesn’t see?” - Bob Dylan
As good as those who bought gold then?
"How many times can a man turn his head and pretend he just doesn’t see?” - Bob Dylan
Why would you have to"tie it up in a bank" in order to collect interest payments?
Knowledge is the enemy of fear
Yes better, and vastly better when considering transaction costs such as premium, spreads, shipping, fees, storage, etc.
Knowledge is the enemy of fear
Jmski, what is the weighted average maturity of the bonds on banks balance sheets. This is an important question to your thesis. Do you know the answer?
Knowledge is the enemy of fear
Most of those fees don't apply to gold vehicles like GLD (and options thereon) and futures contracts.
While it varies, for most banks it is 4-7 years duration (a better measure of interest rate sensitivity).
The massive rise in yields since 2021 did very little damage: 3 banks. Even without doing ANYTHING, 25% of the average bank's portfolio has matured since the Silicon Valley Bank implosion and is reinvested at NICE YIELDS.
Those who do not understand banking are destined to....
They had a problem with their liabilities because 40% of their deposits left within hours. The rise in rates itself was manageable.
The nature of banking is illiquid assets (think IT'S A WONDERFUL LIFE and Bailey Savings & Loan) and that is why you need The Fed as the lender of last resort.
still with him?
"How many times can a man turn his head and pretend he just doesn’t see?” - Bob Dylan