***MAY 2010 Gold and Silver Stocks/Options/Futures trading thread***
ProofCollection
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New month, new thread.
April turned in a really nice bullish candle, $65 up for the month.
As I did participate in the whole move & rather agressively, my return for the month for my futures account was 103% trading only gold futures.
Weekly and Monthly charts look really good and loaded with energy for the last phase of the big parabolic move.
April turned in a really nice bullish candle, $65 up for the month.
As I did participate in the whole move & rather agressively, my return for the month for my futures account was 103% trading only gold futures.
Weekly and Monthly charts look really good and loaded with energy for the last phase of the big parabolic move.
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Comments
Schweeetttt!!!!! I love this!!
Im not getting this parabolic move thing though. Im my mind a parabolic move would be on the order of 25% or more in less than month, but more precisely a move of 200% or more in less than 6 months. Do you see this happening?
I see another rally to suck people in then another 6 months of doldrums.
Knowledge is the enemy of fear
Of course, you might also want to consider that the market is gonna get spooked over the GS show trials.
Add to that the fact that BP will now become the dead man walking in the market, and this may spill over into the stocks of the domestic oil companies, which can't be good for the overall market either.
You can bet that there will be a push for Al Gore's agenda now, but I don't know how that affects gold other than making further mis-allocations of valuable capital. I guess that's bad in the intermediate term for the economy because we'd have already been down that road if it made any sense economically.
How does all this affect gold? I'm guessing that the net effects of these things will benefit gold by >+10% in 6 months. That doesn't figure in any more sovereign debt defaults, or California, or New York, or the other states that love to spend and tax that are in trouble. There's a few black swans in the water, not just one. Heck, I keep forgetting the commercial real estate bust that is upon us. Now, that could be a downer for gold, but hey - I'm sure they'll figure out a way to fix it by issuing more Treasuries.................................or something.
I knew it would happen.
<< <i>Im not getting this parabolic move thing though. Im my mind a parabolic move would be on the order of 25% or more in less than month, but more precisely a move of 200% or more in less than 6 months. Do you see this happening? >>
The parabolic move will take us from where we are at now to $2300 or beyond by next Jan or Apr. I think there's a good chance it will blow out beyond $2300, but assuming it "only" makes $2300, that averages out to ~$110/month if you pick Mar for the final month. Of course, in a parabola the early candles will be smaller than the later candles, so $50-100 candles for the next couple of months would be expected with some monster $100-$200 candles toward then end, and probably bigger during the last couple of months... and not all of the candles will be white (but red will be rare), and there may be some doji's.
I see the entire move from 2001 as already having gone parabolic. The bottom trend line on the 10 yr chart has changed 3 times. Basically that's what a parabola is, a succession of ever steepening trend lines. Sure, month to month or even year to year the trend can look "broken." But when smoothed over the long haul the trend to me is certainly parabolic with new lower trend lines being established in 2005 and 2009. If the latest one gets broken to the downside then we'll re-evaluate it then. Good thing for now is that this parabola has barely gotten started compared to how the 1978-1980 move played out.
Eventually that 100-200% move in 6 months will come....not necessarily this year or even next year. Technically, any move that is not linear should be considered a parabolic/exponential move. The fall 2009 move in gold was parabolic even if it was only 30% in 3 months.
roadrunner
<< <i>Eventually that 100-200% move in 6 months will come....not necessarily this year or even next year. Technically, any move that is not linear should be considered a parabolic/exponential move. The fall 2009 move in gold was parabolic even if it was only 30% in 3 months. >>
Technically, a parabola is linear using the mathematical definition. Any move that is linear should be considered a parabolic/exponential move.
I agree 100% and thats why I think gold will trade in a range for "quite some time"
I see this(current) move in gold as just another in a series that will build the number of disappointed (short term)investors.
You have time to accumulate gold, if thats your choosing.
Knowledge is the enemy of fear
Hadn't messed with parabolas since 1st year calculus class in 1973. But basically from the mathematical standpoint they "loosely" are representations of quadratic equations. The simplest one being y= (x) squared. It's definitely not linear which would be y=Cx. From a geometric view planet orbits around the sun are parabolas as is projectile motion. Funny that without reading the link I couldn't have strictly defined what a parabola really was after the 27 year layoff.....other than it was linked to a quad. equation. Now I am refreshed.
In reviewing the gold miner charts from Friday they give me some concern. There are a number of weaknesses such as a number of long hangman doj's on the best miners, Aroon 10's that maxed out, RSI's on the best senior and intermediate miners well overbought in the 73-76 range, declining volumes on some, some minor crossing over in the stochastics, 8-10 day bollinger bands that are rounding over or have gone the other way as of Thursday/Friday. A number of the best miners show 20 day BB's that have arced down to flat over the past few weeks. While none of these could prevent the rally from continuing on Monday, it does give me some concern. Of course gold bullion could move totally independent to the miners.
Also note that $BDI has picked up some steam in the past week and is showing signs of a larger IH&S with a neckline hitting 3800. $NZD/$JPY also showing a reflush of liquidity at the end of last week. Of course Friday's pullback in stocks and the banks wasn't the best thing but with end of month squaring, etc. weird things tend to happen.
COT showed nothing that substantial last week. If anything the overall move a touch bearish for metals. While gold Open Interest surged 17K contracts, the commercial net short position increased by +8K. Ratio still at 2.82. The USDollar gained about 1,700 net shorts.
roadrunner
<< <i>New month, new thread.
April turned in a really nice bullish candle, $65 up for the month.
As I did participate in the whole move & rather agressively, my return for the month for my futures account was 103% trading only gold futures.
... >>
Holy mackerel! That's incredible. Congratulations.
Kuch, above is a link from goldseek.com that comes out every Friday afternoon between 4-5pm breaking down the gold, silver, and dollar commitment of traders info. You can also go directly to the CFTC site (ICE exchange) to see it. They break it down in two diff. ways. If you scroll down to the dollar - futures only you will see under the commercials that they added 76 long contracts and 1746 shorts.....for a net increase of 1670 shorts. (I rounded up to 1700). This adds to the commericals (or better known as the big banks) already hefty short position by bringing up the short to long ratio from 5.65 to around 5.87. They were as high as 8 just a short time ago. The more lopsided their position gets, the better the odds that the market will eventually tip in that direction (ie long or short). I give extra creedance to the big banks since they tend to be "right" in the trade, not to mention that have unlimited money available via the FED to trade....plus they do the FED/Treasury's bidding.
Other news snippest of note:
Zerohedge states via Ted Butler that the Dept of Justice is looking into a criminal case against JPM for silver manipulation. They won't have to look far. On this week's Comex contracts the big banks hold 91% of the net shorts - that's several years of world wide silver production. Yeah, some hedge!
Australian govt considering raising miner tax rates by 40%....or is that to a 40% rate? That will really help mining companies in Australia. No doubt other nations will follow to punish the evil miners who are killing the world's currencies (lol). Being considered starting July 2012. Logically though, the minerals belong to the nation in question. They honestly should be getting a big chunk of the profits as long as the miners can still be quite profitable. Chavez is considering taking it just a notch higher by nationalizing his nation's PM miners.
Lightened up about 30% on my miner shares Friday. Saw a 10% jump in Rubicon over a week or so and decided to take it. Also removed half of my AUY. They report on Tuesday. Don't necessarily trust them not to have another snafu with "one time event" hits. The miners have moved up dramatically the past 2 weeks and a brief pause would be in order. Capital Gold just saw it's 2nd CEO in 2-3 months tender their resignation. I don't think that's a bullish sign in the shorter term. I sold my stake in CGC as well though I think they are a reasonable longer term bet.
In surfing through the GDX end of year report was surprised to see l'il ole TRE sitting among the giants of the gold industry. They are about a 2% stake in GDX.....yup...with just a bunch of "worthless" land rights and a single mining truck.....a "25c stock" that has been pushed up considerably over the past 6 months as Tanzania has taken center stage among Africa's more progressive mining nations.
roadrunner
<< <i>This thread makes me feel like the dunce of the class. >>
I try to follow but it's mostly jibber jabber to me
roadrunner
History is rife with companies that are not as they appear.
Or, the value of a company's stock does not always equal the value of the company.
Also, top end of gold trend channel is about 1250.
Knowledge is the enemy of fear
<< <i>
Also, top end of gold trend channel is about 1250. >>
It could always break through and make a new channel
Fellas, leave the tight pants to the ladies. If I can count the coins in your pockets you better use them to call a tailor. Stay thirsty my friends......
<< <i>This thread makes me feel like the dunce of the class. >>
Me too. Mongo only pawn...... in game of life.
Or, to put it another way....
Hedley Lamarr: My mind is aglow with whirling, transient nodes of thought careening through a cosmic vapor of invention.
Me: Ditto.
Hedley Lamarr: "Ditto?" "Ditto," you provincial putz?
<< <i>Hadn't messed with parabolas since 1st year calculus class in 1973. But basically from the mathematical standpoint they "loosely" are representations of quadratic equations. The simplest one being y= (x) squared. It's definitely not linear which would be y=Cx. From a geometric view planet orbits around the sun are parabolas as is projectile motion. Funny that without reading the link I couldn't have strictly defined what a parabola really was after the 27 year layoff.....other than it was linked to a quad. equation. Now I am refreshed. >>
Ah, yes, I see where I was wrong. I was thinking only of a half of a parabola, because that's generally what we're talking about when we're talking charts going parabolic. The easy test to determine if a shape is linear is if there is if the slope of a line never causes an inflection... i.e., if you take a horizontal line at any point on the chart, you will cross the line at only one point.
An interesting fact I read: April set a record for the highest monthly-average gold price.
Gold's hanging in there tonight, going sideways. Support for tonight & Monday is at 1171.2, 1177.9, and resistance is at 1185.0, 1190.6, and 1204.4. SP500 hanging in there too. I'm seeing near-term (within the next few weeks) targets near 1210 for gold and then 1250-ish.
<< <i>
<< <i>
Also, top end of gold trend channel is about 1250. >>
It could always break through and make a new channel
Indeed. There are TWO lines that comprise that channel.
Knowledge is the enemy of fear
Silver's on fire, likely to test $19 soon.
Saw this article on the USD and money supply. Key Statistics Not sure what to say about it... good reading though.
Miners were up this morning but have since given back a lot of the gains. Yamana (AUY) posts earnings tonight. SLW was up well over $20 this morning, I'm doing well with that one and IAG.
Been fun playing the oil spill related names. RIG, BP, CLH.
Knowledge is the enemy of fear
Gold did hit my 1190 target and I did unload excess contracts before the dip to ~1168. The dip to 1168 marks an approx 38.2% retracement for the big ~1124 to ~1193 move, so the pull back could and should be done. A break below 1165 will indicate this is a more serious correction for gold.
Bearish engulfing candle on gold?
Gold is suffering today as it is apparent that there will be no inflation for a long time. Luckily gold has the alternative currency thing going for it. The Greek "default" has resulted in spending and wage cuts. This is disinflationary, if not deflationary. Spain has a 20% unemployment rate. Anybody think they will not suffer the same fate? The Greek bailout amounts to over $13,000 per Greek citizen. A similar bailout of Spain would cost $600 billion.
Silver managed to rally back to the 2 yr downtrend line and taking a massive hit today, possibly breaking the uptrend from the Feb low. The 50 and 200 dma are nearby and still trending up, so may offer some support.
Knowledge is the enemy of fear
Gold did hit my 1190 target and I did unload excess contracts before the dip to ~1168. The dip to 1168 marks an approx 38.2% retracement for the big ~1124 to ~1193 move, so the pull back could and should be done. A break below 1165 will indicate this is a more serious correction for gold.
If this is a correction of the entire 1044-1192 move, it could cut much deeper. And it's still entirely possible that this starts a C leg down from the March 2008 high, though imo probably not likely.
GSR showed it's biggest one day gain in quite a long time jumping over 5%. Amazing volatility. GSR could be forming the right shoulder of a large H&S formation that began during the September low. Assuming it is, it's eventually projecting a move back down into the low 50's. But worst case is that it will move to break the previous intermediate Feb. high of 72-73 in an ABC fashion. Doing so would certainly push gold back under the $1044 low.
After a nearly 3 month up move, the PM's were due for a breather. I think gold will correct the entire move from Feb which was basically 5 legs up with 3 lows ($1044, $1088, $1123). BVN best characterized the weakness in gold on Friday when it reached 34 and then fell way off. It hadn't gotten close since. Once again, miners lead gold down. AUY missed it's EPS target by 2c (10 vs 12c) but it looks like any downside from that was enveloped by today's sell off. I could see some of the weaker miners giving up all their gains of the past 2-3 weeks.
roadrunner
Fellas, leave the tight pants to the ladies. If I can count the coins in your pockets you better use them to call a tailor. Stay thirsty my friends......
<< <i>I saw this drop in silver coming, it happens every time it gets near or even slightly above $19 >>
Same here but for a different reason...bought silver over the weekend. I think I will buy more when this bottoms out, whenever that is.
I haven't worked down in Brazil for two months. The BRL was just down to 1.67, now 1.73. It was in the 1.80's a couple of months ago.
Gold and S&P500 are both at 1171!
Thank God for tight stops. The E Trade Machine kicked in and saved me a pantload
Fellas, leave the tight pants to the ladies. If I can count the coins in your pockets you better use them to call a tailor. Stay thirsty my friends......
<< <i>If this is a correction of the entire 1044-1192 move, it could cut much deeper. And it's still entirely possible that this starts a C leg down from the March 2008 high, though imo probably not likely. >>
I believe all of the other recent advances have already been "corrected." It's very bullish for these steady advances to correct "as they go" like this as it means that gold can run keep running while staying "energized."
The bullish engulfing candle for gold futures isn't a good thing to see but I'm not worried. I think there are 2 possibilities from here... a consolidation lasting about two weeks between 1165 and 1192 or a resumption of the upward move. Of course, there could be a bigger corrective patter developing, but I just don't think so. And it's stabilized at 1170 which is only about $10 lower than it opened the week at.
The same kind of applies to SP500, although it may extend a tad lower. We have had a nice A-B-C-D formation down from the peak just under 1220, and the C-D leg is pretty much complete.
The only concern I have is the USD index, which broke out decisively today. It will put pressure on stocks but gold has been fairly de-coupled from it lately.
Im not holding longs for anything more than a bounce though. Choppy waters ahead.
I woulda bot the YEN if looking for a bounce on a currency as it is testing the 3yr uptrend.
Knowledge is the enemy of fear
Fellas, leave the tight pants to the ladies. If I can count the coins in your pockets you better use them to call a tailor. Stay thirsty my friends......
Still waiting for the back to back down days on INDU. If we dont get it today, then probably tomorrow and Fri. Closed most materials longs, nibbling on reit short position.
Knowledge is the enemy of fear
Gold did well, nickel down 10%. Momos on silver weakening. Gold still looks ok. WIll be interesting to see what gold does when the currencies stabilize.
Knowledge is the enemy of fear
Support at 1160.8, 1169.3, and resistance at 1183.9 and 1192.4.
Stocks will probably head lower before going up, most likely bottoming at 1150 (SP500). There's still too much liquidity flowing and the NYSE breadth indicators are too strong for any meaningful decline in stocks at this point.
A month ago, before TSHTF in Greece, I thought so also. Im not so sure now. I think the gold move was a flight to safety--a trade that could unwind some when the dust settles. As I mentioned the last few days, it will be interesting (and telling), to see the reaction of gold when things calm down (unwind).
Knowledge is the enemy of fear
<< <i>When the USD takes a break - and I think it will be soon - gold should get a really nice boost
A month ago, before TSHTF in Greece, I thought so also. Im not so sure now. I think the gold move was a flight to safety--a trade that could unwind some when the dust settles. As I mentioned the last few days, it will be interesting (and telling), to see the reaction of gold when things calm down (unwind). >>
Yes, I agree with this too...I think fear is ruling the day at the moment. Silver sort of proves this...it's really suffered with the $'s rise. I'd guess a shorting bet against gold for a 5% or higher drop near term might be in order to cover when the nervousness ends...but if the other economies in question start to default, or the bailout doesn't happen (or gets more expensive), then gold will still have luster.
I don't think we'll see any serious upside until reality bites here in the US (California needs to tank, or some other state). With the $ strong, PM's go down eventually...
<Crystal ball off>
You can just see it all unraveling....
A number of the better juniors were swept down hard, then recovered about half of the beat down. The seniors and intermediates while getting whipsawed, are hanging not far off their recent highs. Gold & Silver have certainly surprised in this rushing out of liquidity environment. 3rd day in a row that GSR went beserk, essentially covering a 1 month correction in several days.
roadrunner
THAT was a lot of FUN !
You shoulda bot the YEN.
Gold had a good day, although all considered, I would have thought it would be up $100.
SP-500 is a long way from 1250 now.
I really wish they hadnt taken the humans away from the trading desks. Just like Toyota computers took the human out of driving, computers have replaced humans at the trading desks. Humans are predictable, computers are not. Thats bad.
Knowledge is the enemy of fear
I was watching out of the corner of my eye until I saw it go several hundred points in one glance. The only way that could have been fun for anyone was if:
1) you knew what was coming and had your trades already programmed in, or
2) you were totally removed from the stock market (I am in that category).
Nobody could possibly have had the time, sensibility, and access to see what was happening, pick the right trade, execute it, sit on it for 1 1/2 minutes, and then trade back out with a nice profit. If I had been in the market as a trader, I wouldn't have had time to formulate a strategy for what happened, and I doubt that anyone else would've either. Just my 2 cents.
I knew it would happen.
////////////////////////////////////////////
SHORTS made BILLIONS after the turn up.
Look at today's charts of the sundry SHORT ETFs.
EVERYBODY who was in those ETFs this morning
had LOTS of time to dump into the recovery during
the last hour. Look at the volume during that time.
<< <i>I happened to leave my computer from around 12:30 to 3:00 today and missed all the sweep downs to gather up those shares on the cheap. Even Proctor and Gamble dropped from like 60 to 40 for an instant. That was what you call a quick plucking of J6P. It was so fast so they couldn't apply the tar first.
roadrunner >>
They are busting these trades as we speak. By tommorow morning it will be as if it didn't happen. MJ
Fellas, leave the tight pants to the ladies. If I can count the coins in your pockets you better use them to call a tailor. Stay thirsty my friends......
<< <i>MJ,
You shoulda bot the YEN
Gold had a good day, although all considered, I would have thought it would be up $100.
SP-500 is a long way from 1250 now.
I really wish they hadnt taken the humans away from the trading desks. Just like Toyota computers took the human out of driving, computers have replaced humans at the trading desks. Humans are predictable, computers are not. Thats bad. >>
I've own the Yen, wish I would have bought more. I did add the dollar over the last ten days. I did REALLY REALLY REALLY well on my long gold/short silver pairs trade.
Gold might have been up $100 and oil down $30 if this stock market meltdown happened at 1:00 pm instead of 2:47pm. Since the stock market down draft happened after the oil and gold pits were closed they were not FULLY impacted in my opinion. MJ
Fellas, leave the tight pants to the ladies. If I can count the coins in your pockets you better use them to call a tailor. Stay thirsty my friends......
<< <i>THAT was a lot of FUN !
I was watching out of the corner of my eye until I saw it go several hundred points in one glance. The only way that could have been fun for anyone was if:
1) you knew what was coming and had your trades already programmed in, or
2) you were totally removed from the stock market (I am in that category).
Nobody could possibly have had the time, sensibility, and access to see what was happening, pick the right trade, execute it, sit on it for 1 1/2 minutes, and then trade back out with a nice profit. If I had been in the market as a trader, I wouldn't have had time to formulate a strategy for what happened, and I doubt that anyone else would've either. Just my 2 cents. >>
I agree with that assumption. We should know more by tomorrow.
<< <i>
Nobody could possibly have had the time, sensibility, and access to see what was happening, pick the right trade, execute it, sit on it for 1 1/2 minutes, and then trade back out with a nice profit. If I had been in the market as a trader, I wouldn't have had time to formulate a strategy for what happened, and I doubt that anyone else would've either. Just my 2 cents. >>
Some trades did get made by day traders during this short window. Most will be busted. During the downdraft there was so much supply that there was NO bid. It evaporated. The balance of the day the bid/ask was so thin that there was barely any depth. Trades were very hard to make. However, in times like these you really don't try to catch individual stocks to scalp imo. You buy or sell the e-minis instead.
Most traders I know (myself included) have their own panic buttons that sell or buy pre-determined stocks or execute strategy's at the press on a button. With one click of a button I could sell everything in my portfolio in a tenth of a second. Yes, you have to be prepared. MJ
Fellas, leave the tight pants to the ladies. If I can count the coins in your pockets you better use them to call a tailor. Stay thirsty my friends......
This will be a VERY short list:
NEW YORK, May 6 (Reuters) - Nasdaq Operations (NDAQ.O) said it will cancel all trades executed between 2:40 p.m. to 3 p.m. showing a rise or fall of more than 60 percent from the last trade in that security at 2:40 p.m or immediately prior. Nasdaq said the stocks affected and break points will be disseminated soon.