For todays trading, it almost seemed as though gold didnt exist. It didnt do much when the DOW was down 300 and didn't do much after it had completely recovered.
Gold made some strong moves today imo. It was intially whacked down to $1185 as if another big hit was coming....and it bounced right back all day....ending just under $1200 at the Comex close and then over $1200 at the NYSE close. That's 3 days in a row since $1166 with fairly nice daily moves. A number of the miners made strong moves as well. I see Exeter, Newgold, and Seabridge in the +13 to 18% range. Even Silvercorp was up almost 9% today. Strong moves for such a relatively small move in gold and the S&P. Today's gold action seemed appropriate for options expiration where there was strong support at $1190-$1195. The banksters were happy to keep it under $1200 until Comex closed.
I'm still open to more upside to gold and not a return yet to the 50 dma anytime soon. It seems odd that gold ran to a new all-time high only to end it at +$25 higher. That larger IH&S formation is still in play and calling for $1300+. GDX has already touched its 200 dma and that hasn't happened very often, esp so close to an all time high. It also touched it's lower trend line from the FEB lows. GDX ended this last run 3 month run at about 20% above the 200 dma. Usually those runs have gone to 30-40% above the 200 dma. The 2 previous strong peaks in gold went to about +25% over the 200 dma. This last one to $1249 was only +17%.
The cup and handle formation still looks like it has more to offer. It seems like it needs yet another up wave to complete the current set that began in December. It has many similarities to the same pattern that ran from Feb-October of 2009. One thing missing at this point is a blow off leg similar to November 2009. Currently RSI and MACD show a series of higher highs and essentially higher lows on the daily and weekly charts. Too many are back to looking for new lows in gold. The $1250 run surprised many a bear. Could be an opportune time to surprise them all again. A kitco forum thread had a good chart showing the 2 major moves in gold in later 2005 and 2007. In each case following a breakout of a 6 month consolidation trend line (ie cup or triangle) gold moved up 15% or so, took a month or so breather, then headed up another 10-15%. Gold seems to be resting at the 1/2 way point of this 3rd major up leg from the most recent breakout from around $1000.
Things are looking good after what appears to be a solid move over $1210. This is a great opportunity to add to long positions, as I expect $1210 support to hold up as gold resumes its upward trend. We'll see resistance at ~$1224, which we may hit today and if not today, probably tomorrow.
Stocks are looking pretty good after a nice run after hours and overnight. If sP500 can break and hold 1090, the bull run might be back on.
Today was a good day for gold. Again, the USD was up and gold managed to make some minor progress and maintain a level over 1210.
I expect gold will need to consolidate overnight and maybe some of Thursday before the next move. This consolidation may lead to a dip down to 1200 (I'm seeing 1205) or even 1192, but it will be brief and a great opportunity to add to positions.
The big news for Thursday was the stock market. With the SP500 over 1090, it looks to me like the stock rally is back on track. Pile back in!
As far as gold, it held steady right where it was and remains fully energized for its next move. Not sure if we'll get that move on Friday before the holiday, but there's a chance. Otherwise look for the next move up to happen after the holiday.
For gold, this morning's dip below $1210 didn't last long and it's now back up to $1215, which reaffirms the bullish case. Unless we have something crazy in the next hour or so, looks like the next move will wait until Mon night or Tuesday.
As for stocks, it is important that the SP500 close out the week over 1090. It's now a few dollars below that. I expect we will close over 1090, but if it doesn't, we the bullish case is more suspect.
<< <i>For gold, this morning's dip below $1210 didn't last long and it's now back up to $1215, which reaffirms the bullish case. Unless we have something crazy in the next hour or so, looks like the next move will wait until Mon night or Tuesday.
As for stocks, it is important that the SP500 close out the week over 1090. It's now a few dollars below that. I expect we will close over 1090, but if it doesn't, we the bullish case is more suspect. >>
1089.41 Indecisive market. Couldnt get above 200dma. Gold is also indecisive. Last 3 days on GLD featured lower highs and lower lows. Cash is King-which is where my portfolio sits over the weekend.
Comments
Gold made some strong moves today imo. It was intially whacked down to $1185 as if another big hit was coming....and it bounced right back all day....ending just under $1200 at the Comex close and then over $1200 at the NYSE close. That's 3 days in a row since $1166 with fairly nice daily moves. A number of the miners made strong moves as well. I see Exeter, Newgold, and Seabridge in the +13 to 18% range. Even Silvercorp was up almost 9% today. Strong moves for such a relatively small move in gold and the S&P. Today's gold action seemed appropriate for options expiration where there was strong support at $1190-$1195. The banksters were happy to keep it under $1200 until Comex closed.
I'm still open to more upside to gold and not a return yet to the 50 dma anytime soon. It seems odd that gold ran to a new all-time high only to end it at +$25 higher. That larger IH&S formation is still in play and calling for $1300+. GDX has already touched its 200 dma and that hasn't happened very often, esp so close to an all time high. It also touched it's lower trend line from the FEB lows. GDX ended this last run 3 month run at about 20% above the 200 dma. Usually those runs have gone to 30-40% above the 200 dma. The 2 previous strong peaks in gold went to about +25% over the 200 dma. This last one to $1249 was only +17%.
The cup and handle formation still looks like it has more to offer. It seems like it needs yet another up wave to complete the current set that began in December. It has many similarities to the same pattern that ran from Feb-October of 2009. One thing missing at this point is a blow off leg similar to November 2009. Currently RSI and MACD show a series of higher highs and essentially higher lows on the daily and weekly charts. Too many are back to looking for new lows in gold. The $1250 run surprised many a bear. Could be an opportune time to surprise them all again. A kitco forum thread had a good chart showing the 2 major moves in gold in later 2005 and 2007. In each case following a breakout of a 6 month consolidation trend line (ie cup or triangle) gold moved up 15% or so, took a month or so breather, then headed up another 10-15%. Gold seems to be resting at the 1/2 way point of this 3rd major up leg from the most recent breakout from around $1000.
roadrunner
Stocks are looking pretty good after a nice run after hours and overnight. If sP500 can break and hold 1090, the bull run might be back on.
I expect gold will need to consolidate overnight and maybe some of Thursday before the next move. This consolidation may lead to a dip down to 1200 (I'm seeing 1205) or even 1192, but it will be brief and a great opportunity to add to positions.
As far as gold, it held steady right where it was and remains fully energized for its next move. Not sure if we'll get that move on Friday before the holiday, but there's a chance. Otherwise look for the next move up to happen after the holiday.
As for stocks, it is important that the SP500 close out the week over 1090. It's now a few dollars below that. I expect we will close over 1090, but if it doesn't, we the bullish case is more suspect.
<< <i>For gold, this morning's dip below $1210 didn't last long and it's now back up to $1215, which reaffirms the bullish case. Unless we have something crazy in the next hour or so, looks like the next move will wait until Mon night or Tuesday.
As for stocks, it is important that the SP500 close out the week over 1090. It's now a few dollars below that. I expect we will close over 1090, but if it doesn't, we the bullish case is more suspect. >>
1089.41 Indecisive market. Couldnt get above 200dma. Gold is also indecisive. Last 3 days on GLD featured lower highs and lower lows. Cash is King-which is where my portfolio sits over the weekend.
Have a great Memorial Day weekend everybody.
Knowledge is the enemy of fear