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In relation to those holding PMs for SHTF scenarios...Long term care insurance...Smoking cessation a
InYHWHWeTrust
Posts: 1,448 ✭✭✭
... help me conceptualize, graphically, how you define a SHTF scenario?
My definition is not another Great Depression x 20 years, but more like the Black Death with an economic cause (I'm a physician by trade, so forgive the analogy if it doesn't work for you.) In this type of situation, I think the vast majority of us are so DEPENDENT (re: our food, water, vitamins, etc) and UNDERPREPARED, that in such an economic disruption, 100% PM holdings would not do much for the long term and we wouldn't survive very long. Maybe that's just my definition, ie a true SHTF scenario means only a minority survive. And they are likely very remote, self sufficient, bartering (PMs or not), etc.
In the short term in more populated areas, if PM barter would take over, desperate people are going to notice real quickly, who has the PMs. So safety issues also play here. Better be discreet how barters are made and best in communities of like-minded people with different skill sets who can help each other.
Can't you see starving, desperate city folk pouring into the country and forcing the farming, self-sufficient peace-loving people groups to work their farms at gunpoint and provide for them--kind of like slaves? Well, that's what I think of in a SHTF scenario, not eating baked beans and peanut butter for a year or two.
If someone wants to start a thread about what specific means you have implemented (even at a concealed weapons course I just took our oldest son to, the moderator spent 20 minutes on a tangent about his preparedness), that would be great. ?how many years worth of dehydrated foods you have stored, porcelain water filters, etc?
My definition is not another Great Depression x 20 years, but more like the Black Death with an economic cause (I'm a physician by trade, so forgive the analogy if it doesn't work for you.) In this type of situation, I think the vast majority of us are so DEPENDENT (re: our food, water, vitamins, etc) and UNDERPREPARED, that in such an economic disruption, 100% PM holdings would not do much for the long term and we wouldn't survive very long. Maybe that's just my definition, ie a true SHTF scenario means only a minority survive. And they are likely very remote, self sufficient, bartering (PMs or not), etc.
In the short term in more populated areas, if PM barter would take over, desperate people are going to notice real quickly, who has the PMs. So safety issues also play here. Better be discreet how barters are made and best in communities of like-minded people with different skill sets who can help each other.
Can't you see starving, desperate city folk pouring into the country and forcing the farming, self-sufficient peace-loving people groups to work their farms at gunpoint and provide for them--kind of like slaves? Well, that's what I think of in a SHTF scenario, not eating baked beans and peanut butter for a year or two.
If someone wants to start a thread about what specific means you have implemented (even at a concealed weapons course I just took our oldest son to, the moderator spent 20 minutes on a tangent about his preparedness), that would be great. ?how many years worth of dehydrated foods you have stored, porcelain water filters, etc?
Do your best to avoid circular arguments, as it will help you reason better, because better reasoning is often a result of avoiding circular arguments.
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... and while you're at it - get this one to answer the last part of your statement/question: Patriots: A Novel of Survival in the Coming Collapse by James Wesley Rawles - Rev. 2009.
For anyone who hasn't read those two books, I strongly recommend them. Read them back to back ... You will finish them quickly, as you won't be able to put them down. Patriots is also a great reference book, even though it is labeled novel.
<< <i>Why ? doc you think it's going that way >>
I was called 'another crackpot' in a thread where others had mentioned SHTF scenarios and I postulated that most of us would be dead in less than a year if such were to REALLY happen.
I have no crystal ball and I sure hope not, but I am trying to do the best I can to prepare... reasonably. Hyperinflation or deflation? Who knows, prob one or the other, have PMs for the former, cash for the later.
No, I don't know how to make penicillin from orange molds
But am still chipping away at silver for 11x or better, got enough 1/10s and 1oz AU right now I think.
<< <i>Your statement is an insult to people who live in the country. Do you think they would actually stand for that? Do you think country folks are DUH and not ready for the lazy city folks to head to the country .... heh -- better re-think that one! Have you read the book One Second After? If not, I suggest you read it to find out how the country folks will rule the city disease. >>
I am from the country and was trying not to say AMISH people, LOL
was in the army
city guys are a joke can't hit jack
and we country folk have lot's of bullets and most guys i know have at least 6 guns
and thousands of rounds
i was 10 taking nra training hunting at 12
local people around here would ban and stop any control from any where else not a threat
just a fact
it's good to think about these things
i hope your wrong
just get a new plan nothing is as simple as the paid guys tell you
just my guess
<< <i>Do you think country folks are DUH and not ready for the lazy city folks to head to the country.... >>
I think of those lazy city folks as an emergency food supply.
Worry is the interest you pay on a debt you may not owe.
That's fine. Maybe you don't.
I'm not preparing for armageddon. I'm trying to protect my other assets--including my ability to earn a living--as well as my family and their relative safety. I also have car insurance and insurance on my home for the same reason.
Further, I have long term food storage. And several thousand doses of a small but potent deterrent with several interrelated delivery systems. If those in need present with the appropriate indications, I will be more than happy to administer the, umm, shots.
Regardless, in a true SHTF scenario, gold (and silver) will still be seen as valuable. There are countless examples of people getting what they need, or where they need, in the very, very recent past, in very, very dire situations, with a krugerrand or two and the promise of a couple more upon delivery.
That degree of desperation may not arise. What have I lost by preparing for it?
--Severian the Lame
Hank Jr defined it for me!
<< <i>It is every person's responsibility to prepare for the worst (I pray for the best). There are disasters every day - hurricanes, tornados, earthquakes, tsunamis, etc. It is only wise to prepare. It's just that some people just don't get it. They are they ones who will be working on my farm. >>
Well said.
I have tried to do my part in preparing so as not be a burden on others, but we have generator, food, water, emergency supplies for a few more people, but we can't prepare for everyone. The 'little' emergencies you mention are so common.
Re: Weiss' statement above, smacks of impugning motives in it and omniscience to know another's heart, which are not true for this person at all; but I was called a 'crackpot' for my definition of a SHTF scenario-- which is, most of us don't live through it. I doubt most of us can really conceive of this until we experience it, like war, or have thought through the graphic ramifications. Anything less than this is probably a major inconvenience, which might drag out for a while, but things go back to pretty much the same landscape in which they started. Not a major landscape change.
Yes, I have PMs, but I have no faith in them anymore than any other created thing of perceived value, esp in what I think of as a true SHTF scenario.
Prepare for the worst and pray for the best. Live life like it's your last day, but prepare like you're going to live to 100. I hope our PMs are just things that get passed down to great-great children that I get to live to see
If a person looks at history there are any number of other scenarios. The most famous are the hyper-inflationary scenarios in Germany, and more recently in Zimbabwe.
A much more common scenario is the loss of a major war. The U. S. hasn't had that experience, but often times the paper assets get close to a clean wipe in the losing country.
Same with a major change in government, and I'm not talking about a change of parties, more along the lines of a military take over, or a country splitting with military force involved. In many situations, virtually all the paper wealth was wiped clean. Bonds, stocks, deeds to real estate became worth nothing, and only tangible assets that a person could carry could be gotten out of the country if the plan was to flee. Again, read some world history and you'll see that these were not uncommon events. Actually, I would say stable economies were the exception, and economic upheaval with or without violence more about the average national experience.
Often times, if folks with assets chose to stay, the assets were usually seized by force, the families executed or put into work camps. Now, I don't predict that happening in the U.S. any time soon. However, students of history know it has happened before in other developed countries, and if I had to bet, I'd bet it will almost certainly happen again in developed countries with a chance of it happening in the U. S. Even in this country, there is already anger against the wealthy. If times get really bad with people starving, or masses dying from disease, class warfare with condoned violence or worse might occur. In some countries, certain professions were targeted. If a person had had a certain job, they were assumed to be enemies of the state, enemies of the people. In other countries, certain races and/or religious groups were targeted. Know one knows where the cards fall, if things get really bad.
I understand that because the U. S. hasn't ever suffered truly devastating economic and political events (aside from the American Civil War), insular and myopic Americans (as the average American is) believe that their country is some how immune to them. To me, that is not a safe way to think. I suggest folks read some more world history. Students of history know that peace, prosperity and economic stability are more of an exception. Military violence and/or economic upheaval are rather average. About half the time in historical scenarios, people have to flee. So while some stockpiles are a good thing to have, don't count on them as having monetary value. If a person has to flee, the stockpile is going to stay and will likely be given away or seized.
Just because the rule of law has mostly held in the U. S. for 240 years, it doesn't mean it will be that way in the future. Without the rule of law, paper assets may not be worth anything. Human nature hasn't changed. What often saved the U. S. in the past was the insulation of two vast oceans and for the most part friendly or weak neighbors. Those factors may or may not help in the modern world, with modern economies, modern problems.
Now as to the amount or percentage, that is open to debate. I don't ever argue with another person's choice as to that matter. That a person or family with any significant net worth would do well to have at least a little in precious metals is almost self evident to me. To do without is like doing without insurance. A person hopes they never have to cash in the insurance policy, but they pay the premium just in case. Sure there are scenarios where the insurance will be of little or no help, but there are also many times when it will be a life saver.
but if you try to take look out
just mt thoughts most people will give you the shirt off their backs
Depending on the percentage they want to monetize, gold could be set at $10,000 or even $100,000 per ounce. The three or four surviving currencies would then have a fixed rate of exchange versus a floating exchange rate and this new fiat money would be worth less than the old currency. I am not suggesting a gold standard but a one time monetization of debt so the debt burden can be handled comfortably by the central banks around the world.
As some asset classes would inflate in price and others fall in price, governments would need to come to the rescue in some way so individual investors do not lose everything they had. Governments would have to create some programs to make lenders and investors receive some of their lost money back. We would see our taxes raised (federal, state, and sales) but the masses would not be starving or homeless. This solution will not make for a safe and soft landing but will make the landing a landing where most can walk away from and give the world a chance to start over economically.
In this scenario, owning PMs now would obviously go a long way in protecting your family and possibly make you very wealthy. I do not think that it is a coincidence that China is now urging its people to purchase PMs, buying PMs and other hard assets as a country, and investing in miners. I believe they see that the writing is on the wall and are taking measures to end up on top when Western governments stop trying to fool themselves into believing that they can get their economies growing to a point they can pay down their debt. Here in the US (I love our country so please do not think I am bashing) we lived on credit for decades and this credit gave us an opportunity to grow faster than the rest of the world. It gave the appearance that we knew exactly what we were doing and allowed our Dollar to remain the reserve currency and the power that goes with it. The credit card bill is coming due and we can fool ourselves for a little while longer by printing more dollars out of thin air to buy some more time but the debt clock is growing faster and faster while our economy continues to struggle and we fall further behind.
Again, this possible solution will cause some pain to many but in reality, the SHTF has already been happening. What we need now is for our leaders to acknowledge the problem and do the least amount of harm while creating a solution.
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Worry is the interest you pay on a debt you may not owe.
In a "Great Depression x 20" or other less severe SHTF scenario I think PM's would be much more useful.
The determining factor, for me, in deciding if the SHTF scenario is "serious" or not would be whether or not the rule of law remained or dissapeared.
If it remained, PM's should get me what I need. If it dissapeared, my firearms and bullets will get me what I need a lot quicker and easier than any PM.
I agree, and I'll add a cleaning kit for your weapon, MRE'S, and most importantly water.
<< <i>If you've made arrangements for all the SHTF scenario's that you are much more likely to encounter in your lifetime, plenty of life insurance for the spouse and kids in the event you have to "leave" suddenly. Good health insurance for the coronary or other god awful health problem you are probably going to have in your life span, a good IRA or other retirement source for old age, good disability insurance for when you are sick or injured and can't provide for your family, nursing home coverage so you aren't paying $9000 a month like some people I know for a family member in a care facility, oh, they only have to pay it until all their money and real estate is gone, then the state will pick it up. A good cash cushion to get you by in the event you become unemployed. If you have addressed all these likely events in your life and want to start preparing for the unlikely event of civilization breaking down, then go to it. If you are preparing for the end and haven't taken care of these other areas, I really have to question your logic. >>
I have all of the above ducks in order but the nursing home coverage. But at almost 2 packs a day, I shouldnt have to worry too much about that one!
<< <i>But at almost 2 packs a day, I shouldnt have to worry too much about that one! >>
Have you tried to get some help? I'd hate to lose you as a fellow forum member.
Worry is the interest you pay on a debt you may not owe.
At $7 a pack, thats almost 5 ounces of gold a year!!!! SHEESH!!!
And I wont even get into the costs to the rest of society.
Knowledge is the enemy of fear
"The government does not lose money from smoking; it profits from it.
Because smokers have an 18-36 percent chance of dying sooner than they would if they did not smoke, smokers tend to use substantially less Social Security and Medicare benefits and other expensive government programs. This saves the government approximately 32 cents for every pack of cigarettes sold.
In addition to saving 32 cents per pack, says [Professor W. Kip] Viscusi, government taxes average 53 cents per pack.
So government profits 85 cents per pack of cigarettes sold in the United States. This figure, incidentally, does not include the $246 billion tobacco companies agreed to give state governments to settle state-initiated lawsuits.
Meanwhile, according to the New York Times, tobacco companies make an average profit of 28 cents per pack.
Government profits from tobacco more than tobacco companies do.
My conclusion: If you see yourself as a government wage slave, by all means, smoke. Aside from the expense to you and the inconvenience of possible premature death or unnecessary illness, it is a nice thing to do for your fellow citizens."
Link.
<< <i>
<< <i>But at almost 2 packs a day, I shouldnt have to worry too much about that one! >>
Have you tried to get some help? I'd hate to lose you as a fellow forum member. >>
Yes, smoking is so.....deadly, never mind expensive. I quit 30 years ago, probably one of the best things I ever did. Think of your family if you don't care about us.
I am in agreement with your post 100%
<< <i>In a true Armageddon SHTF, I believe a carton of cigarettes will get you more than an oz of Gold. So all you smokers, load up on your smokes, it may save your life.
<< <i>I have all of the above ducks in order but the nursing home coverage. But at almost 2 packs a day, I shouldnt have to worry too much about that one!
At $7 a pack, thats almost 5 ounces of gold a year!!!! SHEESH!!!
And I wont even get into the costs to the rest of society. >>
I have an excellent healthcare package. But would you believe it wont cover a smoking cessation program such as the patch? Whats that saying about an ounce of prevention?
Carton of butts for one week: $54
2 wks of patches: $47
Actually the patches do work. You start at the max dose ( 21 mg./patch as opposed to 2 mg/butt) and you won't even think about a smoke for a good while. When you do think about a smoke, slap another one of those puppies on your flank and you're good to go for a while more. Lather, rinse, repeat. The cool thing about the patch is that you get a direct injection of very clean nicotine with out all the lighting up, losing the butt, chewing the gum, standing in the rain and cold, just pure clean nicotine and that calming sense of well being. A person smoking two packs a day is smoking 40 butts at 5 minutes a butt you've got about 3 1/2 hours a day of smoking pleasure every day, year after year. One of the suprising things about quitting is the amount of time you have left to fill in, not including the longer life span. Oh, yes, keep the used patches away from your pets and kids, they are not meant to be ingested.
Go ahead and try the patch, I guarantee you will like it and people will like you more and you will like you more. One cool thing about the patch is the gov doesn't tax your butts and give the money to some indigent slacker on the public dole. Another is that you don't pollute the natural resources with little carcinogen laden filters that leach into the ground water and soil, another is that people really do get cancer from carcinogens. So, if the shtf, a good stash of patches will not only keep you from having to swap your pm for butts from some criminal jerkwad but you'll have a perfectly adequate stash that others will give you pm for...hee hee and they don't take up much room either. Did I mention that the patches deliver a hit of pure, clean, nicotine...mmmmmmm mmmmmmm. And, hey, maybe you just might quit all together.
Happy trails
<< <i>"But would you believe it wont cover a smoking cessation program such as the patch? Whats that saying about an ounce of prevention?"
Carton of butts for one week: $54
2 wks of patches: $47
Actually the patches do work. You start at the max dose ( 21 mg./patch as opposed to 2 mg/butt) and you won't even think about a smoke for a good while. When you do think about a smoke, slap another one of those puppies on your flank and you're good to go for a while more. Lather, rinse, repeat. The cool thing about the patch is that you get a direct injection of very clean nicotine with out all the lighting up, losing the butt, chewing the gum, standing in the rain and cold, just pure clean nicotine and that calming sense of well being. A person smoking two packs a day is smoking 40 butts at 5 minutes a butt you've got about 3 1/2 hours a day of smoking pleasure every day, year after year. One of the suprising things about quitting is the amount of time you have left to fill in, not including the longer life span. Oh, yes, keep the used patches away from your pets and kids, they are not meant to be ingested.
Go ahead and try the patch, I guarantee you will like it and people will like you more and you will like you more. One cool thing about the patch is the gov doesn't tax your butts and give the money to some indigent slacker on the public dole. Another is that you don't pollute the natural resources with little carcinogen laden filters that leach into the ground water and soil, another is that people really do get cancer from carcinogens. So, if the shtf, a good stash of patches will not only keep you from having to swap your pm for butts from some criminal jerkwad but you'll have a perfectly adequate stash that others will give you pm for...hee hee and they don't take up much room either. Did I mention that the patches deliver a hit of pure, clean, nicotine...mmmmmmm mmmmmmm. And, hey, maybe you just might quit all together.
Happy trails >>
Sounds like the patches may be just as addicting as the smokes.
Worry is the interest you pay on a debt you may not owe.
Long before gold got to those lofty levels, the public would be asking for the "heads" of all those gold and oil bugs that "caused" the havoc in the economy/financial system. One could probably expect to see a PM's windfall profits tax of up to 80-90% to satiate the masses. A gold bug might eventually rate lower than a central banker.
I'm not buying the shtf scenario logic that having guns and ammo will get you whatever you want when you want it. About all that guarantees is that if you take something, there will be people lined up with more guns and ammo to take it right back from you. Success will be short lived. Unless your name is "XXX" it's unlikely you'll last past the first or second wave of "taking" whatever you need. There will always be a bigger and faster "gunslinger" looking to take up your challenge. Cave men were more civilized than this.
roadrunner
Most people just don't know it yet because their favorite news source hasn't told them.
Give Me Liberty or Give Me Debt
<< <i>The fan is already knee deep in S.
Most people just don't know it yet because their favorite news source hasn't told them. >>
Yup...and 12/21/2012 is less than 3 years away
Fellas, leave the tight pants to the ladies. If I can count the coins in your pockets you better use them to call a tailor. Stay thirsty my friends......
<< <i>Your statement is an insult to people who live in the country. Do you think they would actually stand for that? Do you think country folks are DUH and not ready for the lazy city folks to head to the country .... heh -- better re-think that one! Have you read the book: One Second After? If not, I suggest you read it to find out how the country folks will rule the city disease.
... and while you're at it - get this one to answer the last part of your statement/question: Patriots: A Novel of Survival in the Coming Collapse by James Wesley Rawles - Rev. 2009.
For anyone who hasn't read those two books, I strongly recommend them. Read them back to back ... You will finish them quickly, as you won't be able to put them down. Patriots is also a great reference book, even though it is labeled novel. >>
This is a joke, right?
Fellas, leave the tight pants to the ladies. If I can count the coins in your pockets you better use them to call a tailor. Stay thirsty my friends......
<< <i>For what it's worth the books really are good.........MJ >>
Oh I have no doubt they are fun reading, but the "lazy city folk" and the "city disease." What the heck is that all about? I lived in the city
for many years and never thought of myself, or any of my associates or friends as "lazy." In fact I have met more people who are "on the dole" in one way or another since I moved to the country. That is an ignorant statement, perhaps the poster was writing in haste and didn't stop to think about what he was saying.
It's well written and I think it is a good fictional story.
I have copied all the chapters into on file and created a pdf.
If anyone of you wants it, I can send it via email, it's a little over 1MB. Just PM me.
I knew it would happen.
<< <i>There are a few reasons why I moved away from the city and into a somewhat rural area, not the least of which was finding what seems to me to be the relative safety in being a little more out-of-the-way. Besides, I always wanted a tractor. >>
A tractor will do it every time!
Yeah...
So are snowmobiles and 4-wheelers.
And a rototiller, or two. People gotta eat. And cows. Yummy.
While we're on the topic of books, you may want to read this book. It may provide a different perspective.
Knowledge is the enemy of fear
<< <i>if you haven't read the books, then you have no clue to judge what I was talking about. >>
I'm not talking about the books, as I said, I'm sure they are fun reading, apocalytic thrillers, "what if" books. I'm referrring to your statement about the "city folk." Are you saying that if I read these works of fiction it will explain your unsubstantiated generalizations? I've mentioned critical thought here before, it is something that is essential in understanding what you see going on around you in the world, you simply cannot take things you read in a work of fiction and form a true premise, without which, leaves your argument or statement without any validity.
Buddy I'm not trying to just beat up on you, I'm just trying to make you think about how you form opinions or beliefs, and fiction is not the place to find it.
Edited for spelling