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Yet ordinary collectible coins - have fallen in value by as much as 30% over the past year

Your thoughts?

Wall Street Journal article dated November 19th...

"Today's coin market is largely defined by high-end investors grabbing the rarest of coins that infrequently come up for sale; gold bugs snapping up gold coins; and speculators bidding up prices for coins whose grades they suspect are too low, in the hopes of securing a higher grade and selling them for more money. Yet ordinary collectible coins—the nickels, dimes and quarters that are nice but not great—have fallen in value by as much as 30% over the past year, say coin dealers and auction-house executives.

"It's easier to sell a $100,000 coin today than a $1,000 coin," says John Albanese, founder of Certified Acceptance Corp., based in Bedminster, N.J., which verifies graded coins."
There is no "AT" or "NT". We only have "market acceptable" or "not market acceptable.

Comments

  • I would have to agree.
  • ecichlidecichlid Posts: 1,212 ✭✭✭
    The PCGS3000 is down about 7% over the past year.
    There is no "AT" or "NT". We only have "market acceptable" or "not market acceptable.
  • DieClashDieClash Posts: 3,688 ✭✭✭


    << <i>I would have to agree. >>



    image

    As evidenced by the prices I've been able to buy on eBay over the past 10-months. For the ordinary collector, this is a buyer's market indeed.
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  • This shouldn't be news to anyone. The middle market for art, antiques, and most collectibles has, in some cases, almost disappeared. Nice, good grade, whatever you have, paintings, windsor chairs, or coins, is just sitting. Real cheap and real quality is what sells, quality usually being expensive.
  • 291fifth291fifth Posts: 23,896 ✭✭✭✭✭
    Probably true, but I wish they would define the "market" more clearly.
    All glory is fleeting.
  • TwoSides2aCoinTwoSides2aCoin Posts: 43,793 ✭✭✭✭✭
    It's easier to sell one million dimes for a dollar each, than one copper cent for a million.
  • ElcontadorElcontador Posts: 7,412 ✭✭✭✭✭
    It depends on what you collect. While this is true re MS 66 Liberty Nickels, it is NOT true with respect to pre 1835 type. Re the latter, nice for the grade material of any series has held steady.
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  • Although not true in all cases, I have enjoyed adding to my collection at a discount to what I would have paid a few years ago. The only disappointment is the lack of really nice material showing up. The really nice stuff is being held back until the market improves.
  • IrishMikeIrishMike Posts: 7,738 ✭✭✭
    I wonder how many nice for the grade coins that were overpaid for will languish for quite some time. Those coins that sold for strong prices that aren't rarities.


  • After thinking about the last year in the market (At least locally) I think I can say that this is primarily true. I don't think it applies to all coins though. For us anyway, correctly graded original coins continue to be strong there never was a down turn. Its the other stuff (I call them "ride alongs" ) slight problems, color or just not as appealing, you can't give these coins away in this market. Again speaking just for us, bullion is certainly driving our local shows. It is the norm that any silver or gold bullion related item priced even reasonably competitively will be snapped up early at the start of each show and then the show becomes a leisurely social gathering after that.

    All that being said this past Sunday we were at the St.Paul Liberty coin club show and I think everyone there thought there was a reasonable mix between bullion hawks and collectors, but again only the choicest material sold. (As it should be)


  • << <i>It depends on what you collect. While this is true re MS 66 Liberty Nickels, it is NOT true with respect to pre 1835 type. Re the latter, nice for the grade material of any series has held steady. >>

    Jeff, pre-1838 type material has declined in price in many cases, as well. As just one example, MS64 Capped Bust Half Dollars are trading for roughly $1000 (25%) less than they were before prices started dropping. And a number of other early types and/or grades have experienced similar fates.



    << <i>Probably true, but I wish they would define the "market" more clearly. >>

    Good point, as there is no one/single rare coin market, which moves in unison. But rather, there are many markets/segments, which can behave very differently from one another. Many generic gold type coins certainly haven't suffered recently, and I have heard the same about certain modern coin issues that I don't follow.
  • Make it the past two or three years from the 2006 peak prices and I would agree. Some of the coins I bought have decline 30% or so in that time period, measuring retail to retail prices. If I sold at fair cash wholesale today, my losses on those specific coins would be more like 50%.

  • farthingfarthing Posts: 3,294 ✭✭✭
    The segment of the market I collect in continues to see strong prices, prices are still increasing. This is especially true for NGC slabbed material.
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  • BillJonesBillJones Posts: 33,427 ✭✭✭✭✭
    I have to agree that lower priced coins (less than $2,500) have been hit hard by these economic hard times. The situation hit here in Florida a couple years earlier after the bad hurricane season we had. There was a noticeable drop in attendance at the shows and sales went way down. It was one of the main reasons why I decided to shut down my business.

    I got into the business in the mid 1990s when coins were decided out of favor. For me it was a great time to become a dealer because dealers were willing to sell me coins at attractive prices, and many dealers were more than happy to consign coins to me because I had a habit of “making things disappear.”

    Now we are in flux situation where prices may not have gone down enough to start another cycle. And given the uncertainty about government economic policies and the national debt, we might be looking an extended period of economic hard times.

    A great many people are using truly scarce to rare coins as an economic safe haven. Time will tell as to how safe that haven truly is.
    Retired dealer and avid collector of U.S. type coins, 19th century presidential campaign medalets and selected medals. In recent years I have been working on a set of British coins - at least one coin from each king or queen who issued pieces that are collectible. I am also collecting at least one coin for each Roman emperor from Julius Caesar to ... ?
  • America is losing its middle class. Millions of people who had a decent paycheck two years ago are now surviving on a smaller unemployment check, and maybe food stamps. If they bought coins before, they're selling them now. A market flooded with now-unwanted coins and underpopulated with buyers can only result in lower prices. This will get worse, and go on for years, if the financial press has it right.

    Of course, wealthy people whose assets produce a lot of disposable income can afford expensive trinkets, including coins. But there will be fewer of them, too, if the tax wizards in Washington D.C., Sacramento, New York City, and other locations decide to balance their bloated budgets on the "rich."
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  • TwoSides2aCoinTwoSides2aCoin Posts: 43,793 ✭✭✭✭✭
    For fear of sounding positive in a negative environment, I'll reserve commenting further.
  • slipgateslipgate Posts: 2,301 ✭✭


    << <i>It's easier to sell one million dimes for a dollar each, than one copper cent for a million. >>



    I think you have that backwards!
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  • roadrunnerroadrunner Posts: 28,303 ✭✭✭✭✭
    Make it the past two or three years from the 2006 peak prices and I would agree. Some of the coins I bought have decline 30% or so in that time period, measuring retail to retail prices. If I sold at fair cash wholesale today, my losses on those specific coins would be more like 50%.

    I'd take that further back to 2002-2004 in many cases. Some gem type coins I got into back then at pretty fair prices are at best at break even today. Many type coins really didn't climb all that much higher after 2006-2007. The ones that did tended to be exceptional for the grade. A crappy NGC MS65 bust half was a tuff sell in 2004 and didn't get that much easier even in 2006-2007. In fact I had one offered to me this past Sunday for "only" 20% back of bid. I guess the owner didn't realize that even in 2004 those were selling for 20% back of bid as well and there weren't exactly people lining up to buy them. A real honest MS65 bust half is still a scarce item. I told the seller that if he was that sure of this coin to get it crossed into a PCGS holder and pocket another $1000-$1500 for himself. He didn't like that answer.

    roadrunner


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  • fcfc Posts: 12,788 ✭✭✭
    there are not enough collectors to soak up the common average stuff.

    i think this trend will continue and in my price range this does not bode well
    for any purchase as it will simply be a loss if i decide i do not want to keep it.
    it is that type of situation that does not inspire me to go spend 500 dollars on
    a coin right now at retail levels.

    lets face it, most old coins are boring and lacking any oomph. they are still over
    priced in my opinion. combined with grade inflation it is almost laughable as people
    try to sell, for example, AU50-53s that are XF45 in my book.

    the cycle has a ways to go before the average collector will feel they are getting
    good value for their money.
  • saintgurusaintguru Posts: 7,724 ✭✭✭
    My bet is on the table. image

    I fear that my sale will kick off a new and overdue bull-run in rare 20th C. gold. I have no choice and I won;t let money control my life.
    image

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