Gold @ $1150. Buy, sell, hold?
Weiss
Posts: 9,941 ✭✭✭✭✭
Silver at $17.80.
I'm holding. Perceived strength in the dollar makes me a little less anxious to have metals--for now.
I'm holding. Perceived strength in the dollar makes me a little less anxious to have metals--for now.
We are like children who look at print and see a serpent in the last letter but one, and a sword in the last.
--Severian the Lame
--Severian the Lame
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Fellas, leave the tight pants to the ladies. If I can count the coins in your pockets you better use them to call a tailor. Stay thirsty my friends......
Gold $1,154.00 $1,155.00 ($33.00)
Silver $17.91 $17.96 ($0.85)
Platinum $1,420.00 $1,430.00 ($51.50)
Palladium $356.20 $361.20 ($11.80)
Updated:11/27/2009 8:27:16 AM CST
I sure am glad I sold so many of my Gold eagles last week!
(x2,Meltdown),cajun,Swampboy,SeaEagleCoins,InYHWHWeTrust, bstat1020,Spooly,timrutnat,oilstates200, vpr, guitarwes,
mariner67, and Mikes coins
<< <i>Here comes the pullback i've been waiting patiently for!
The problem with physical PMs is you can't rush out in the middle of the night and buy some. This dip may be over by the weekend. --Jerry
<< <i>Here comes the pullback i've been waiting patiently for!
What pullback ...
(Just think of city streets clogged with a hundred thousand horses each generating 15 lbs of manure every day...)
<< <i>
<< <i>Here comes the pullback i've been waiting patiently for!
The problem with physical PMs is you can't rush out in the middle of the night and buy some. This dip may be over by the weekend. --Jerry >>
You can order on APMEX anytime you want and the product pricing is indexed to the spot market...
. Gold is no longer speculative so much as it is insurance. When multiple world governments are buying gold as insurance, you must think that when the smartest economic minds at the national level of govts start sucking up gold that they must be thinking something that drives them to that type of deployment of national currency. Rather than grease their own economies with currency, the govts are doing a pull back and stashing value in lieu of expanding credit and providing for infrasturcture development.
. The dollar is falling from the previous level of value that it had against other national currencies but you have to realize that it was at an unrealistic high anyway because of the go go, inflated market that the US had promoted with open pocket book diplomacy and a national binge on gathering personal and corporate debt...the "everything will go up in value so buy all you can now" approach. All of this expansion in the face of looming liabilities such as a social security entitlement explosion by the retirement boomers and public and medical entitlement expansion. The bills have come due and the banks have scared an in well over his head BHO into keeping their CFO's and up in the tall cotton. The banks are now the fox in the hen house with a direct link to the income tax revenue stream paid by the working public. The double whammy for the economy is that the rescued banks are also in a pull back and they are stashing value in lieu of expanding credit and providing for business expansion. The govt has handed the banks cart blanche as they can now borrow money for 0 and loan/invest it at 5% or more...life is good for the banksters.
. Fund managers are running to gold also. There have been a number of stories in the last couple of weeks about large retirement funds and mutual funds that are headed to gold as a way to stabilize their fund values. Investment funds realize the vulnerability of having all their eggs in the equities and paper instrument basket when the basket seems to be of poor constuction and the fund managers are quite aware of their potential losses if this fiat game starts wobbling further. They are buying gold to soften the damage of any blow outs ala Dubai.
. The Chinese public is buying gold by official decree. You just have to believe that if the Chinese government tells its "locked in step" followers to buy gold that the govt must pretty damned sure that it is something that the govt believes is a fundamentally correct action at this time. One thing you will not hear is any of the money shows in the US telling folk to go for the gold even in the face of multiple $-4-gold advertisements on the same money shows that pump equities. The financial managers in the US were not concerned about the public putting their money into gold because the big banks could certainly keep the price managed so that they could continually pull out the graphs and show how this was a bad place to put your money. Even now, in the face of our current financial wasteland, the money shows won't guide people into gold as a way to insure against financial devastation that they report on a daily basis. The media pumps the success of the stock market, hypes any small success as strong evidence of a financial recovery even in the face of a barely 10K market that is floated with govt funds and not floated by the successes of private industry. The obvious situation with 50% not paying taxes and 20% of them being unemployed should be a clear indicator of our financial where with all.
The point being that this time it is different. Gold is no longer viewed as a speculative investment that doesn't pay interest that you can't eat, it is becoming a solid place to park cash to preserve value in the face of collapsing govts, collapsing industries, collapsing American dreams, collapsing banks, collapsing credit, collapsing...the list goes on. This time it is different, people are buying gold to save their butts instead of to play in the commodities trading bidness. You don't see people shorting gold after every spike now, they are buying more. The US govt can no longer contain the price now that the international markets have fled to gold as a reserve, it's game on and every man for himself. When gold trades were in USD only, the price could be managed either by taking a dominant short position on futures or by flooding dollars into the equities markets that left gold as a less than favorable place to park cash. The news of the day is that a financial reckoning is on the horizion and we have been watching the sun rise coming for almost a year. Gold still settles in USD but the ability of the US interests to affect that settlement price has diminished to nearly nonexistent.
So the op question...hummmmmm. Hey, we're all skiddish right now. Gold is always worth something and when a lot of govts and individuals have a large amount of gold then physical gold seems to have the financial confidence of the live money and it's going to be hard to shake people off of it until something else gains their financial confidence and that something else is simply not in the picture right now. The media can hype the equities, the govt can sing kumbaya to the people and issue debt that they buy back themselves, the brokers can pump their sector of the day, all for naught. Until people see something better than gold, they will not play the money. What would you rather do right now, park a bunch of cash in the S&P or buy some physical gold? There are other places to put money right now such as getting a stake in the woefully depressed real estate offerings right now. It seems like this is going to be a long haul so do you put your money into a depressed realestate market and become a slum lord or do you wait for it to get depressed even more and keep your cash in a climbing gold market? Seems that folk have to live somewhere and when millions of people are forced from their homes (and another rate reset just around the corner) they are going to have to rent. We see the headlines recently that report that used housing sales are rising so we get the story of: RESALES HAVE INCREASED 20% SO THE REALESTATE MARKET IS RECOVERING...yeah, sure.
Seems like a good time to sell if you need the money for something because your gold is certainly more valuable now then when you bought it. Seems like a good time to buy because the price doesn't seem evenly slightly vulnerable right now. Seems like a good time to just hold your position because your stash is gaining value on a daily basis. So, buy, sell or hold...yeah.
<< <i>In previous history, you either buy metal in a steady, accumulative way regardless of the price or you buy when there is a pull back and sell on a spike. This time it seems to be different.
This is as far as I got in your post when I thought, "no it's not." It's the same thing I heard about tech in the 90's, remember "the new paradigm" we don't evaluate stocks on the p/e ratios, we do it on projections!! Be cautious, question everything you hear, but don't think things are "different," fear and greed rule the financial markets and I think we are looking at the latest manifestation of that in the PM "bubble," yes that's right, I called it a bubble.
Camelot
(x2,Meltdown),cajun,Swampboy,SeaEagleCoins,InYHWHWeTrust, bstat1020,Spooly,timrutnat,oilstates200, vpr, guitarwes,
mariner67, and Mikes coins
in our economic house of cards. Where there is one,
there will be other defaults. 80 billion here, 150 billion there
soon, you could be talking real money. It is probably OK to buy
some amount of gold on dips, but I would not recommend going
crazy with the purchases. It might not be a bad idea to just sit
a spell and observe what will happen. It may be already too late
in the game to do anything serious.
Camelot
https://www.pcgs.com/setregistry/gold/liberty-head-2-1-gold-major-sets/liberty-head-2-1-gold-basic-set-circulation-strikes-1840-1907-cac/alltimeset/268163
in the game to do anything serious."
Agreed, much better to already be in position.
Yes
Buy... gold, silver guns and food
Sell.... any paper promises, pooled gold accounts, etc
Hold... your nuts cause its gonna keep getting crazier.
You mean, that
it ain't crazy enough yet?
The really sad thing is, that folks
should have begun preparing for
this situation, several years ago
as a number of folks on this Forum
have been recommending over the years.
Camelot
Edit: when I wrote this Silver was shown closing at 17.90 or so. Now it's shown at $18.35....
<< <i>When comparing the dow which began its rise in 1982 at 770 or so breached the 11,000 mark berfore topping. >>
Dow actually went over 14,000 for a while....
<< <i>Any body who calls the current market in Gold a bubble must be inflicted with a severe case of bubblephobia. There is no evidence that Gold being approximately priced at 35% over its 1980 high is in any kind of a bubble. When it hits $6000.00 + and only then, will it be considerd to be entering a bubble state. If this is a bubble then we have set our sights really low and are more less saying this bubble is different this time around. The previous bubble went from a base of 32.00 to 850.00 this one has only gone from 250.00 to $1185.00 or so, the first was a 26x multiple of the base. The second has only been a 4.7x multiple of the base. Ahuge difference. When comparing the dow which began its rise in 1982 at 770 or so breached the 11,000 mark berfore topping, The tulipmania which far exceeded the previus two examples, as well as the southsea bubble, there just is no basis I can see to call Gold a bubble unless the bubble is different this time. >>
I'm not saying we are at the limits of a bubble, I think we are just starting out, but you can feel the "fear and greed." I have stated that I hold some PM funds, not much, probably enough to buy a new SUV, but I don't plan on expanding my position.
Technically you're probably right. Everything since the removal of the gold standard in 1971 has been one bubble after another. PM's will have their 15-20 year turn as well. Don't forget FRAUD in the "fear and greed" rule the finanical markets. It's the biggest factor by far. There are still 593 TRILLION reasons why gold is not yet near bubble phase. And that is different from any example from past history.
The 14,100 Dow level was just a numerical high but not a true high when measured against the dollar. The 2001 peak at around 12,000+ was actually quite a bit higher considering the dollar lost around 35% of its value from 2001 to the stock market peak in the fall of 2007. That 14,100 peak was basically 9,165 when inflation adjusted. Keynes would have been proud.
roadrunner
We seemed to agree on the hold part of the answer. But perhaps that is because we both have advocated aggressive purchases of gold in US gold coin form over many years. We both have have steadily acquired significant quantities of US gold coins in the past.
While it is a "luxury" to say "hold" when you are already in position, the question remains what to do if you are NOT in position?
Roadrunner and I neglected to discuss that more important part of the question.
I would advocate not to get crazy over what the price of gold is currently and to view ownership of US gold coins as insurance, not a way to make money and in this regard, make steady purchases of gold that fits within your budget. Determine how much you can afford per year to buy and stick with it.
Example, if you can afford $2,500 per year, that would be just about enough to buy two 1 ounce modern U.S. gold coins, per year. For some reason, the 1 ounce gold coins seem to be the most popular. Once you have a plan, then stick with it.
I also advocate buying a significant amount of silver in the form of 90% US silver coins along with the gold coins. It is sort of the small purchases form o insurance. I personally like walkers and mercs the best of all. Some collectible value to go along with the silver value.
For every one ounce of gold you own, I like to own at least $40 face value of pre 1965 US silver coins at a current cost of $13 x $40 face value equals $520 current cost. This creates better diversification and also silver is still psychologically cheap compared to gold. The $40 face value is approximately $40 x .715 or between 28 and 29 ounces of pure silver. Once can adjust as needed for their budget.
If you do not enough funds to buy any gold, by all means get started with silver. Everyone can afford to buy $1 face value of old US silver coins at $13 face. I tell my smoking friends that cutting out two packs of cigarettes here in New York buys them $1 face value of silver every day! That is $365 face value at the end of one year!
Good luck.
as collector value. I am backing that up with Barber
Quarters and halves for the same reasons.
Camelot
Yes. The point here is you don't have to be exact. Believe me, if you buy enough gold and try to keep up with my concept in holding that much silver, you will be running out of storage room sooner than later.
<< <i>I agree that WLH have both the silver value as well
as collector value. I am backing that up with Barber
Quarters and halves for the same reasons. >>
I cannot disagree. However, it is difficult to find that much in Barber and quarters that isn't damaged goods.
(x2,Meltdown),cajun,Swampboy,SeaEagleCoins,InYHWHWeTrust, bstat1020,Spooly,timrutnat,oilstates200, vpr, guitarwes,
mariner67, and Mikes coins
<< <i> I guess it would be fun to look though! >>
Go for it Goingbroke! Cherrypicking yourself is fun.
<< <i>My 86 year old father collected coins for a hobby for 60 years. When he died in 2007 he left his entire collection to me. I have never cataloged the collection it is very large! cases of silver dollars rolls and rolls of walking liberty halves dimes quarters ect. All the coins are in nice high quality collector condition. None of them would be considerd junk silver. I guess this winter when I am snowed in I will take the time to look at them. I would never sell them as they are all I have that belonged to him. I guess it would be fun to look though! >>
Why the heck couldn't I be born to someone with good sense like that?
Um, need a son? Distant relative? Can I shine your shoes regularly for a quarter (pre-1964, of course!)?
Gold: $1187.20
Silver: $18.61
3:30 am est Tuesday 12/01/01
<< <i>Keep holding; here we go again. Where will the top be this time?
Gold: $1187.20
Silver: $18.61
3:30 am est Tuesday 12/01/01 >>
Gold has a free ride to the up side until US interest rates start climbing due to the US dollar carry trade.
But even when interest rates finally start to rise gold will continue up until the "real" interest rate starts going positive. It took several years of rising rates and nominal rates of close to 20% in the late 1970's and early 1980's to finally turn the tide against gold. It will do the same this time. The 2nd half of the ride won't be free, but it won't exactly have heavy resistance either. With approx $170 TRILL in interest rate swaps held by the 5 major US banks, the raising of rates would incinerate their balance sheets in short order. So that's one major hurdle to be cleared before the FED can take off their pressure to keep rates low. But they may have little choice if the rest of the world won't play along.
roadrunner
(x2,Meltdown),cajun,Swampboy,SeaEagleCoins,InYHWHWeTrust, bstat1020,Spooly,timrutnat,oilstates200, vpr, guitarwes,
mariner67, and Mikes coins