<< <i>what happened to the shortage talk and rising premiums?
it seems to be demand is going away and production finally caught up causing premiums to shrink right back down.
this is a sign to me that paying more then 50 cents per ounce premium on any bullion is a foolish thing to do. (common bullion that is). >>
Well fc if you don't understand by now you never will. Even in the so called shortage you could get silver for 4 or 5 dollars over melt at about this same price. Physical doesn't equal paper and the market feels that physical silver should be this price. For some of us it's a confort to see that you are protected from the paper downsides. The game was called when people started to take deliveries off the COMEX and the price had to be raised to prevent a default. I'd like to think your just playing dumb.
<< <i>what happened to the shortage talk and rising premiums?
it seems to be demand is going away and production finally caught up causing premiums to shrink right back down.
this is a sign to me that paying more then 50 cents per ounce premium on any bullion is a foolish thing to do. (common bullion that is). >>
Well fc if you don't understand by now you never will. Even in the so called shortage you could get silver for 4 or 5 dollars over melt at about this same price. Physical doesn't equal paper and the market feels that physical silver should be this price. For some of us it's a confort to see that you are protected from the paper downsides. The game was called when people started to take deliveries off the COMEX and the price had to be raised to prevent a default. I'd like to think your just playing dumb. >>
my first sentence was being very very sarcastic.
and i think your sentence chunk of, "the game was called when people started to take deliveries off the COMEX and the price had to be raised to prevent a default." is questionable.
what game? anyone can take deliveries off the COMEX with proper research and funds. who raised the price exactly? oh yea.. the MAN.
lets face it. people got into a frenzy and spouted misinformation about silver being "used up" and running out to be totally inaccurate. wannabes jumped into the silver game paying outrageous premiums and now it seems that was pretty darn stupid.
i have always stated that premiums will come down when the frothy frenzy fades away and production catches up. one could have chosen to simply not buy 7-10 months ago and patiently waited but nope! they could have saved quite a bit of money instead of paying 3-4 bucks premium for common rounds and bars.
that is not how irrational investors work. no sir.
and now i think we are seeing the last gasps before one final run up and then nada for the long term.
get ready to set some goals folks if you are a metals investor. you will not have much time to get rid of it at the top.
<< <i>what happened to the shortage talk and rising premiums?
it seems to be demand is going away and production finally caught up causing premiums to shrink right back down.
this is a sign to me that paying more then 50 cents per ounce premium on any bullion is a foolish thing to do. (common bullion that is). >>
Well fc if you don't understand by now you never will. Even in the so called shortage you could get silver for 4 or 5 dollars over melt at about this same price. Physical doesn't equal paper and the market feels that physical silver should be this price. For some of us it's a confort to see that you are protected from the paper downsides. The game was called when people started to take deliveries off the COMEX and the price had to be raised to prevent a default. I'd like to think your just playing dumb. >>
my first sentence was being very very sarcastic.
and i think your sentence chunk of, "the game was called when people started to take deliveries off the COMEX and the price had to be raised to prevent a default." is questionable.
what game? anyone can take deliveries off the COMEX with proper research and funds. who raised the price exactly? oh yea.. the MAN.
lets face it. people got into a frenzy and spouted misinformation about silver being "used up" and running out to be totally inaccurate. wannabes jumped into the silver game paying outrageous premiums and now it seems that was pretty darn stupid.
i have always stated that premiums will come down when the frothy frenzy fades away and production catches up. one could have chosen to simply not buy 7-10 months ago and patiently waited but nope! they could have saved quite a bit of money instead of paying 3-4 bucks premium for common rounds and bars.
that is not how irrational investors work. no sir.
and now i think we are seeing the last gasps before one final run up and then nada for the long term.
get ready to set some goals folks if you are a metals investor. you will not have much time to get rid of it at the top. >>
You really are a bigger fool than I originally thought, your forecast is a final run up followed by an indefinite collapse in price. Well at least you conveniently forgot to predict what the final run up would be, care to make a prediction??? You also claim that the physical supply of Silver will always be plentiful, I suppose you also claim that peak oil is an absurd concept or that at some point supply and demand will push prices well beyong what most people think possible. Of course you will always be a legend in your own mind, I for one have no time for braggarts like you.
norseman, you debate so oddly. is the name calling really necessary? please calm down.
i think gold will peak one more time right around 1050 and have a slow decline for many years. I think this last peak will be in the next few months to a year when a world wide event takes place. Or, for example, say a 1500 point drop in the dow which people will take as the sign of a collapse and rush for the metal(s). As soon as it gets close to a 1000 again the sheep will rush in causing another subtle spike and then the decline. Set your goals and be prepared to act on them when it takes place. Don't let greed cause you to ride it back down.
also norseman.. peak oil has been talked about for decades. just because production peaks does not mean oil just disappears.. it just means as it gets slightly (SLIGHTLY) tougher to get at the price creeps up. Also technology will keep pushing cars, for example, to get better and better gas mileage. There is no need for hysteria and we will both be 6 ft under before it even becomes a major issue. Feel free to invest based on such "information".
I am not sure why you dislike me so much. Perhaps because your investments are not panning out as you wished and like to have someone to kick around. Feel free to vent your frustration on me. It is good to get it out of your system so you do not end up yelling at others in real life.
wish you the best of luck. i suggest you venture to other websites for information that does not just pad your way of thinking and actually goes against your normal grain. It may add some perspective to your way of thinking if you read opposing opinons and actually consider them before going nuclear.
I know something about the oil business. I know that they're trying to kill it in this country, which is really, really dumb. The good thing is that markets tend to make fools of really dumb people, and that primarily means - our government.
The chips will fall where they will. Saudi's fields are getting appreciably depleted. That's the low-hanging fruit. There is no way to make up for a shortfall from Saudi. There are some largely untapped oil sources, but nothing compares to Saudi. fc, what do you know about peak oil? Don't worry fc, you will get to see it. It won't impact availability as much as it will impact PRICES.
If the government tries to get involved in the oil business or in price-setting, we will all get screwed. The oil markets are one area where the government will get nailed if they try to control it like they are trying to control everything else. They will get us all into a bind like we've not seen in our lifetimes.
If they simply let the free markets work, the solutions would come forward at the right time. But no, that's apparently too much to expect from the dolts in government. If you think that the backlash against government involvement in health care is impressive, just wait until they make it impossible to afford transportation or heat.
$0.49 over melt is a good deal!
Q: Are You Printing Money? Bernanke: Not Literally
<< <i>Corrected link (it's a secure site, you have to use the httpS link button/format): Ampex sale >>
This is an introductory special for a new product line, which explains the cheap price. They look nice, so I bought 20 of them for inventory. TD
Numismatist. 50 year member ANA. Winner of four ANA Heath Literary Awards; three Wayte and Olga Raymond Literary Awards; Numismatist of the Year Award 2009, and Lifetime Achievement Award 2020. Winner numerous NLG Literary Awards.
first lets cut out all the govt bashing and free market wazoo talk.
<< <i> Saudi's fields are getting appreciably depleted. That's the low-hanging fruit. There is no way to make up for a shortfall from Saudi. There are some largely untapped oil sources, but nothing compares to Saudi. fc, what do you know about peak oil? Don't worry fc, you will get to see it. It won't impact availability as much as it will impact PRICES. >>
What do I know? I know how to find other sources of information and intelligently digest them and make up my own mind.
Obviously this technique of finding multiple sources of information and watching how the peak oil crowd has been spouting this nonsense for decades wears thin with me.
YES, peak oil as a concept is correct. You just need to factor in many other variables which takes a bit of critical thinking skills.
NO, the sky is not falling even though peak oil propagandists want to make it seem like that.
<< <i> If the government tries to get involved in the oil business or in price-setting, we will all get screwed. >>
I know you know this.. but why in the world would you type the govt is not involved? Of course they are!
"OPEC perpetuates the phony theory of scarcity and successfully manipulates the price of oil with the help not only of its own members but also of Russia, Mexico, and other non-OPEC producers. And then there is the quiet acquiescence of those "developed nations": Sad to say, since the mid 1980s our government has been complicit in OPEC's success."
I could go on and on but I think two links to these websites is enough for people to chew on.
"Lapham of Harper’s magazine is the only editor in the hemisphere with hard knowledge of the petroleum market, insight he inherited legitimately: His family helped found Mobil Oil, the back half of what is now Exxon Mobil.
He asked, “Why in the world would oil companies, or any company, announce that there’s lots of its product out there? You’d bust your own market. It’s better to say the cupboard’s bare.” As Lapham noted, we have been “running out of oil” since the days we drained it from whales."
but hey.. maybe if a die hard gold bug could spin that peak oil is bad for gold it may change some minds around here!
"Lapham of Harper’s magazine is the only editor in the hemisphere with hard knowledge of the petroleum market, insight he inherited legitimately: His family helped found Mobil Oil, the back half of what is now Exxon Mobil.
I note that he is a magazine editor for a publication that has zero to do with the oil & gas industry. He is an heir to money made by actual working oilmen, which doesn't necessarily mean that he knows squat. I would also venture to say that any number of editors in any of the oil & gas industry publications *probably* have a much better grasp of oil & gas industry trends and hard data than Mr. Lapham does. Hence he is not the ONLY editor in the hemisphere with hard knowledge of the petroleum market.
I also note that using a 1956 projection to draw an analogy about peak oil is invalid. The methods for oil extraction have changed dramatically since '56 and the major oil producing fields have been documented to be seriously on the decline - in spite of the enhanced oil recovery methods being employed. And I may be speaking a little out of my field of expertise, but "reserves" aren't the same thing as "proven reserves", and "proven reserves" aren't always "cheap and accessible reserves."
You might want to immerse yourself in a few technical articles in the Oil & Gas Journal for a year or two before you start believing the politically-motivated crap you are likely to find in a 10 minute internet search.
Q: Are You Printing Money? Bernanke: Not Literally
<< <i>You might want to immerse yourself in a few technical articles in the Oil & Gas Journal for a year or two >>
I run a small subsea oil and gas engineering company, I've been reading O&G Journal for more than a year or two, and I also think the peak oil discussion is mostly a load of hooey. The idea is certainly sound, but the timing is off, perhaps by an order of magnitude. Doomsayers have been predicting we only have 10-20 more years of oil for 50 years, and we are still finding plenty. Go have a look at the estimated reserves for Jack/St. Malo in the US GoM for an example. Is it cheap to get out? No, it's costing $75-100mm for every hole in the ground, that's just to get at it, not including actually producing it. California has a large amount of probable reserves, as does the coast of Florida as examples in our own back yard. And no one can even come close to guessing how much oil and gas in in the Russian/Canadian/US arctic regions. The South China sea has had hardly any exploration, off the coast of Australia they have more gas fields than they can produce in the next 50 years and Brazil and West Africa continue to have new finds. So it's more expensive to get to than just poking a hole in the ground ala Saudi Arabia, but we are still finding plenty every year.
Operators just do not want to produce unless they can get a good return. Remember that they are putting out $2bn+, over a 3-5 year period, to develop a single large field. You need to feel pretty good about price stability to take that kind of risk.
I work for one of the biggest. Peak oil? I can tell you now we spend million a day on dry hole and we're one of the best. You can take peak oil for granted but I can tell you now the easy oil done and now it's going to cost way more for the same product, peak oil is a reality and I'm in research and see it all.
<< <i>You might want to immerse yourself in a few technical articles in the Oil & Gas Journal for a year or two >>
I run a small subsea oil and gas engineering company, I've been reading O&G Journal for more than a year or two, and I also think the peak oil discussion is mostly a load of hooey. The idea is certainly sound, but the timing is off, perhaps by an order of magnitude. Doomsayers have been predicting we only have 10-20 more years of oil for 50 years, and we are still finding plenty. Go have a look at the estimated reserves for Jack/St. Malo in the US GoM for an example. Is it cheap to get out? No, it's costing $75-100mm for every hole in the ground, that's just to get at it, not including actually producing it. California has a large amount of probable reserves, as does the coast of Florida as examples in our own back yard. And no one can even come close to guessing how much oil and gas in in the Russian/Canadian/US arctic regions. The South China sea has had hardly any exploration, off the coast of Australia they have more gas fields than they can produce in the next 50 years and Brazil and West Africa continue to have new finds. So it's more expensive to get to than just poking a hole in the ground ala Saudi Arabia, but we are still finding plenty every year.
Operators just do not want to produce unless they can get a good return. Remember that they are putting out $2bn+, over a 3-5 year period, to develop a single large field. You need to feel pretty good about price stability to take that kind of risk. >>
When people talk about peak oil they generally refer to cheap easy to pump oil being gone forever, yes there are more oil and gas finds every year but they are getting harder to find and they are being found in off shore deepwater projects such as the huge find off the coast of Brazil. These projects effectively mean that cheap oil is gone replaced forever by expensive projects in which the price of oil will have to be $75-100 a barrel to make them economically feasible. I don't necessarily think that oil will run out in my lifetime but at some point technology will have to replace energy production from fossil fuels with other green forms of energy. As for FC I don't mind you having an opinion but try and be respectful to others without coming across as a know it all, remember everybody likes a little ass but nobody likes a smartass.
Comments
Ampex sale
--Severian the Lame
it seems to be demand is going away and production finally caught up
causing premiums to shrink right back down.
this is a sign to me that paying more then 50 cents per ounce premium on
any bullion is a foolish thing to do. (common bullion that is).
(x2,Meltdown),cajun,Swampboy,SeaEagleCoins,InYHWHWeTrust, bstat1020,Spooly,timrutnat,oilstates200, vpr, guitarwes,
mariner67, and Mikes coins
<< <i>Premiums seem to be dropping across ed the board this morning I bought 2-half ounce platinum eagles for only $1.50 each over spot. >>
No disrespect, but I find that hard to believe..."1/2 oz APE's @ $1.50 over spot? Do you have a link?
<< <i>what happened to the shortage talk and rising premiums?
it seems to be demand is going away and production finally caught up
causing premiums to shrink right back down.
this is a sign to me that paying more then 50 cents per ounce premium on
any bullion is a foolish thing to do. (common bullion that is). >>
Well fc if you don't understand by now you never will. Even in the so called shortage you could get silver for 4 or 5 dollars over melt at about this same price. Physical doesn't equal paper and the market feels that physical silver should be this price. For some of us it's a confort to see that you are protected from the paper downsides. The game was called when people started to take deliveries off the COMEX and the price had to be raised to prevent a default. I'd like to think your just playing dumb.
<< <i>
<< <i>what happened to the shortage talk and rising premiums?
it seems to be demand is going away and production finally caught up
causing premiums to shrink right back down.
this is a sign to me that paying more then 50 cents per ounce premium on
any bullion is a foolish thing to do. (common bullion that is). >>
Well fc if you don't understand by now you never will. Even in the so called shortage you could get silver for 4 or 5 dollars over melt at about this same price. Physical doesn't equal paper and the market feels that physical silver should be this price. For some of us it's a confort to see that you are protected from the paper downsides. The game was called when people started to take deliveries off the COMEX and the price had to be raised to prevent a default. I'd like to think your just playing dumb. >>
my first sentence was being very very sarcastic.
and i think your sentence chunk of, "the game was called when
people started to take deliveries off the COMEX and the price had to
be raised to prevent a default." is questionable.
what game?
anyone can take deliveries off the COMEX with proper research and funds.
who raised the price exactly?
oh yea.. the MAN.
lets face it. people got into a frenzy and spouted misinformation about
silver being "used up" and running out to be totally inaccurate.
wannabes jumped into the silver game paying outrageous premiums
and now it seems that was pretty darn stupid.
i have always stated that premiums will come down when the frothy
frenzy fades away and production catches up. one could have chosen
to simply not buy 7-10 months ago and patiently waited but nope!
they could have saved quite a bit of money instead of paying 3-4
bucks premium for common rounds and bars.
that is not how irrational investors work. no sir.
and now i think we are seeing the last gasps before one final run up
and then nada for the long term.
get ready to set some goals folks if you are a metals investor. you will
not have much time to get rid of it at the top.
<< <i>
<< <i>
<< <i>what happened to the shortage talk and rising premiums?
it seems to be demand is going away and production finally caught up
causing premiums to shrink right back down.
this is a sign to me that paying more then 50 cents per ounce premium on
any bullion is a foolish thing to do. (common bullion that is). >>
Well fc if you don't understand by now you never will. Even in the so called shortage you could get silver for 4 or 5 dollars over melt at about this same price. Physical doesn't equal paper and the market feels that physical silver should be this price. For some of us it's a confort to see that you are protected from the paper downsides. The game was called when people started to take deliveries off the COMEX and the price had to be raised to prevent a default. I'd like to think your just playing dumb. >>
my first sentence was being very very sarcastic.
and i think your sentence chunk of, "the game was called when
people started to take deliveries off the COMEX and the price had to
be raised to prevent a default." is questionable.
what game?
anyone can take deliveries off the COMEX with proper research and funds.
who raised the price exactly?
oh yea.. the MAN.
lets face it. people got into a frenzy and spouted misinformation about
silver being "used up" and running out to be totally inaccurate.
wannabes jumped into the silver game paying outrageous premiums
and now it seems that was pretty darn stupid.
i have always stated that premiums will come down when the frothy
frenzy fades away and production catches up. one could have chosen
to simply not buy 7-10 months ago and patiently waited but nope!
they could have saved quite a bit of money instead of paying 3-4
bucks premium for common rounds and bars.
that is not how irrational investors work. no sir.
and now i think we are seeing the last gasps before one final run up
and then nada for the long term.
get ready to set some goals folks if you are a metals investor. you will
not have much time to get rid of it at the top. >>
You really are a bigger fool than I originally thought, your forecast is a final run up followed by an indefinite collapse in price.
Well at least you conveniently forgot to predict what the final run up would be, care to make a prediction???
You also claim that the physical supply of Silver will always be plentiful, I suppose you also claim that peak oil is an absurd concept or that at some point supply and demand will push prices well beyong what most people think possible.
Of course you will always be a legend in your own mind, I for one have no time for braggarts like you.
please calm down.
i think gold will peak one more time right around 1050 and have a slow
decline for many years. I think this last peak will be in the next few
months to a year when a world wide event takes place. Or, for
example, say a 1500 point drop in the dow which people will take as the
sign of a collapse and rush for the metal(s). As soon as it gets close
to a 1000 again the sheep will rush in causing another subtle spike
and then the decline. Set your goals and be prepared to act on them
when it takes place. Don't let greed cause you to ride it back down.
also norseman.. peak oil has been talked about for decades. just because
production peaks does not mean oil just disappears.. it just means as
it gets slightly (SLIGHTLY) tougher to get at the price creeps up. Also
technology will keep pushing cars, for example, to get better and better
gas mileage. There is no need for hysteria and we will both be 6 ft
under
before it even becomes a major issue. Feel free to invest based on
such "information".
I am not sure why you dislike me so much. Perhaps because your investments
are not panning out as you wished and like to have someone to kick
around. Feel free to vent your frustration on me. It is good to get it
out of your system so you do not end up yelling at others in real life.
wish you the best of luck. i suggest you venture to other websites for
information that does not just pad your way of thinking and actually
goes against your normal grain. It may add some perspective to your
way of thinking if you read opposing opinons and actually consider them
before going nuclear.
The chips will fall where they will. Saudi's fields are getting appreciably depleted. That's the low-hanging fruit. There is no way to make up for a shortfall from Saudi. There are some largely untapped oil sources, but nothing compares to Saudi. fc, what do you know about peak oil? Don't worry fc, you will get to see it. It won't impact availability as much as it will impact PRICES.
If the government tries to get involved in the oil business or in price-setting, we will all get screwed. The oil markets are one area where the government will get nailed if they try to control it like they are trying to control everything else. They will get us all into a bind like we've not seen in our lifetimes.
If they simply let the free markets work, the solutions would come forward at the right time. But no, that's apparently too much to expect from the dolts in government. If you think that the backlash against government involvement in health care is impressive, just wait until they make it impossible to afford transportation or heat.
$0.49 over melt is a good deal!
I knew it would happen.
<< <i>Corrected link (it's a secure site, you have to use the httpS link button/format):
Ampex sale >>
This is an introductory special for a new product line, which explains the cheap price. They look nice, so I bought 20 of them for inventory.
TD
Many members on this forum that now it cannot fit in my signature. Please ask for entire list.
Gold $952.60 $953.60 13.40
Silver $14.16 $14.21 0.28
Platinum $1,248.50 $1,258.50 15.50
Palladium $283.95 $288.95 9.70
NICE DAY TODAY!
(x2,Meltdown),cajun,Swampboy,SeaEagleCoins,InYHWHWeTrust, bstat1020,Spooly,timrutnat,oilstates200, vpr, guitarwes,
mariner67, and Mikes coins
<< <i>Metal Bid Ask
Gold $952.60 $953.60 13.40
Silver $14.16 $14.21 0.28
Platinum $1,248.50 $1,258.50 15.50
Palladium $283.95 $288.95 9.70
NICE DAY TODAY! >>
I'm still awaiting your answer on how and where you obtained APE's at $1.50 over spot.
<< <i>
<< <i>Metal Bid Ask
Gold $952.60 $953.60 13.40
Silver $14.16 $14.21 0.28
Platinum $1,248.50 $1,258.50 15.50
Palladium $283.95 $288.95 9.70
NICE DAY TODAY! >>
I'm still awaiting your answer on how and where you obtained APE's at $1.50 over spot. >>
Me too.
<< <i>
Saudi's fields are getting appreciably depleted. That's the low-hanging fruit. There is no way to make up for a shortfall from Saudi. There are some largely untapped oil sources, but nothing compares to Saudi. fc, what do you know about peak oil? Don't worry fc, you will get to see it. It won't impact availability as much as it will impact PRICES.
>>
What do I know? I know how to find other sources of information
and intelligently digest them and make up my own mind.
http://www.gnn.tv/articles/2295/No_Peaking_The_Hubbert_Humbug
Obviously this technique of finding multiple sources of information
and watching how the peak oil crowd has been spouting this nonsense
for decades wears thin with me.
YES, peak oil as a concept is correct. You just need to factor in many
other variables which takes a bit of critical thinking skills.
NO, the sky is not falling even though peak oil propagandists want to
make it seem like that.
<< <i>
If the government tries to get involved in the oil business or in price-setting, we will all get screwed.
>>
I know you know this.. but why in the world would you type the govt is not involved? Of course they are!
"OPEC perpetuates the phony theory of scarcity and successfully manipulates the price of oil with the help not only of its own members but also of Russia, Mexico, and other non-OPEC producers. And then there is the quiet acquiescence of those "developed nations": Sad to say, since the mid 1980s our government has been complicit in OPEC's success."
http://www.nationalreview.com/comment/learsy200312040900.asp
I could go on and on but I think two links to these websites is enough
for people to chew on.
"Lapham of Harper’s magazine is the only editor in the hemisphere with hard knowledge of the petroleum market, insight he inherited legitimately: His family helped found Mobil Oil, the back half of what is now Exxon Mobil.
He asked, “Why in the world would oil companies, or any company, announce that there’s lots of its product out there? You’d bust your own market. It’s better to say the cupboard’s bare.” As Lapham noted, we have been “running out of oil” since the days we drained it from whales."
but hey.. maybe if a die hard gold bug could spin that peak oil is bad
for gold it may change some minds around here!
lol
I note that he is a magazine editor for a publication that has zero to do with the oil & gas industry. He is an heir to money made by actual working oilmen, which doesn't necessarily mean that he knows squat. I would also venture to say that any number of editors in any of the oil & gas industry publications *probably* have a much better grasp of oil & gas industry trends and hard data than Mr. Lapham does. Hence he is not the ONLY editor in the hemisphere with hard knowledge of the petroleum market.
I also note that using a 1956 projection to draw an analogy about peak oil is invalid. The methods for oil extraction have changed dramatically since '56 and the major oil producing fields have been documented to be seriously on the decline - in spite of the enhanced oil recovery methods being employed. And I may be speaking a little out of my field of expertise, but "reserves" aren't the same thing as "proven reserves", and "proven reserves" aren't always "cheap and accessible reserves."
You might want to immerse yourself in a few technical articles in the Oil & Gas Journal for a year or two before you start believing the politically-motivated crap you are likely to find in a 10 minute internet search.
I knew it would happen.
<< <i>You might want to immerse yourself in a few technical articles in the Oil & Gas Journal for a year or two >>
I run a small subsea oil and gas engineering company, I've been reading O&G Journal for more than a year or two, and I also think the peak oil discussion is mostly a load of hooey. The idea is certainly sound, but the timing is off, perhaps by an order of magnitude. Doomsayers have been predicting we only have 10-20 more years of oil for 50 years, and we are still finding plenty. Go have a look at the estimated reserves for Jack/St. Malo in the US GoM for an example. Is it cheap to get out? No, it's costing $75-100mm for every hole in the ground, that's just to get at it, not including actually producing it. California has a large amount of probable reserves, as does the coast of Florida as examples in our own back yard. And no one can even come close to guessing how much oil and gas in in the Russian/Canadian/US arctic regions. The South China sea has had hardly any exploration, off the coast of Australia they have more gas fields than they can produce in the next 50 years and Brazil and West Africa continue to have new finds. So it's more expensive to get to than just poking a hole in the ground ala Saudi Arabia, but we are still finding plenty every year.
Operators just do not want to produce unless they can get a good return. Remember that they are putting out $2bn+, over a 3-5 year period, to develop a single large field. You need to feel pretty good about price stability to take that kind of risk.
World Collection
British Collection
German States Collection
I knew it would happen.
<< <i>
<< <i>You might want to immerse yourself in a few technical articles in the Oil & Gas Journal for a year or two >>
I run a small subsea oil and gas engineering company, I've been reading O&G Journal for more than a year or two, and I also think the peak oil discussion is mostly a load of hooey. The idea is certainly sound, but the timing is off, perhaps by an order of magnitude. Doomsayers have been predicting we only have 10-20 more years of oil for 50 years, and we are still finding plenty. Go have a look at the estimated reserves for Jack/St. Malo in the US GoM for an example. Is it cheap to get out? No, it's costing $75-100mm for every hole in the ground, that's just to get at it, not including actually producing it. California has a large amount of probable reserves, as does the coast of Florida as examples in our own back yard. And no one can even come close to guessing how much oil and gas in in the Russian/Canadian/US arctic regions. The South China sea has had hardly any exploration, off the coast of Australia they have more gas fields than they can produce in the next 50 years and Brazil and West Africa continue to have new finds. So it's more expensive to get to than just poking a hole in the ground ala Saudi Arabia, but we are still finding plenty every year.
Operators just do not want to produce unless they can get a good return. Remember that they are putting out $2bn+, over a 3-5 year period, to develop a single large field. You need to feel pretty good about price stability to take that kind of risk. >>
When people talk about peak oil they generally refer to cheap easy to pump oil being gone forever, yes there are more oil and gas finds every year but they are getting harder to find and they are being found in off shore deepwater projects such as the huge find off the coast of Brazil. These projects effectively mean that cheap oil is gone replaced forever by expensive projects in which the price of oil will have to be $75-100 a barrel to make them economically feasible.
I don't necessarily think that oil will run out in my lifetime but at some point technology will have to replace energy production from fossil fuels with other green forms of energy.
As for FC I don't mind you having an opinion but try and be respectful to others without coming across as a know it all, remember everybody likes a little ass but nobody likes a smartass.