SPLUNGE!
CaptHenway
Posts: 32,236 ✭✭✭✭✭
METALS SPLUNGE!!!!!!!!!
AAAIIIEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEE!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
AAAIIIEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEE!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
Numismatist. 50 year member ANA. Winner of four ANA Heath Literary Awards; three Wayte and Olga Raymond Literary Awards; Numismatist of the Year Award 2009, and Lifetime Achievement Award 2020. Winner numerous NLG Literary Awards.
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I can't tell if that is excitement or disappointment lol
<< <i>AAAIIIEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEE!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! ??
I can't tell if that is excitement or disappointment lol >>
That's the sound of someone falling off the edge of a cliff without a bungee cord or parachute.
Worry is the interest you pay on a debt you may not owe.
"Paper money eventually returns to its intrinsic value---zero."----Voltaire
"Everything you say should be true, but not everything true should be said."----Voltaire
Many members on this forum that now it cannot fit in my signature. Please ask for entire list.
will happen.
<< <i>like i said.. just do the opposite of what this forum generally thinks
will happen. >>
Then I guess your rich then aren't you?
<< <i>
<< <i>like i said.. just do the opposite of what this forum generally thinks
will happen. >>
Then I guess your rich then aren't you? >>
that is a straw man argument. i can tell that you dislike someone that
has a differing opinion then you.
stock market rallies. this forum thinks it will reach newer lows.
gold fails to firmly pass 1000. this forum thinks it will reach new highs.
real estate bottoms and ticks upwards in many areas. this forum thinks it has a ways more to go down.
epic fail.
i say this forum as not to single out anyone but feel free to take it personally if you wish.
the forum made a good call a few years back buying gold and silver at their historic recent lows.
it was a gimme in many ways. but it seems the transition out of it is just too hard for people
to make.
for those wishing to protect their assets.. no hard feelings. you have made a different choice.
for those who are "investing"... well you may wish to rethink your strategy a bit.
feel free to ignore me. i do not mind. i am just pointing out valid observations that back up my
thesis.
Hey isn't it time to bash moneyla now to be consistent around here? different opinion thus
a pariah on the board! hard work being an independent thinker around here.
whip whip! fall in line to the party way of thinking.
will happen.
Evidently you must not be reading many threads here. It was clearly posted Friday that COT commercial interest in the dollar and gold/silver futures were still bearish on PM prices. In fact the dollar shifted gears dramatically over the past 1-1/2 weeks based on COT numbers that came out Friday. This was the first major shift of this sort in months. If you did the opposite of what these reports said then you just lost money buying PM's.
It has also been posted for weeks that a turn cycle in gold was coming in the last 2 weeks of August centered around 21-22 August (ie a new intermediate bottom). The strength in the past few weeks has sort of been unexpected imo. Enjoy this last bottom of the summer while it lasts. Whip, whip, little dip, kaboom to $1000+.
No need to speak for MoneyLA as he can handle himself quite well. He would be the first to tell you that we are still in the $850-$990 trading range.....ho hum.....yawn. $904 is still key resistance to prevent seeing $860-$890 again. One would expect another decent shakeout to occur before another worthwhile attempt at $1000. And if COT got fc to post.....then mission accomplished.
roadrunner
Worry is the interest you pay on a debt you may not owe.
"Paper money eventually returns to its intrinsic value---zero."----Voltaire
"Everything you say should be true, but not everything true should be said."----Voltaire
<< <i>like i said.. just do the opposite of what this forum generally thinks
will happen.
Evidently you must not be reading many threads here. It was clearly posted Friday that COT commercial interest in the dollar and gold/silver futures were still bearish on PM prices. In fact the dollar shifted gears dramatically over the past 1-1/2 weeks based on COT numbers that came out Friday. This was the first major shift of this sort in months. If you did the opposite of what these reports said then you just lost money buying PM's.
It has also been posted for weeks that a turn cycle in gold was coming in the last 2 weeks of August centered around 21-22 August (ie a new intermediate bottom). The strength in the past few weeks has sort of been unexpected imo. Enjoy this last bottom of the summer while it lasts. Whip, whip, little dip, kaboom to $1000+.
No need to speak for MoneyLA as he can handle himself quite well. He would be the first to tell you that we are still in the $850-$990 trading range.....ho hum.....yawn. $904 is still key resistance to prevent seeing $860-$890 again. One would expect another decent shakeout to occur before another worthwhile attempt at $1000. And if COT got fc to post.....then mission accomplished.
roadrunner >>
you make some valid points but to be honest you make a guess at which way gold is going to go
on a weekly basis. it is hard keeping track of everything you write.
but the core thing i hear again and again around here is gold going firmly past 1000 to make it
worthwhile to hold onto your position for only god knows how long. I disagree with this and feel
there has been many lost opportunities in the last 5-8 months which very few people capitalized on
and completely ignored.
i clearly remember getting ridiculed for thinking about bank stocks in march/april. gee. nice profit there.
people around here talk like banks are going to disappear and become a pariah. much lulz there.
but once again i am not singling anyone out. i am talking about the general feel i get from this forum
and it is bullish on PMs to the point of ignoring everything else. beware that path of thinking.
<< <i>Always good stuff going on in the PM forum
ah shut up you dirty flipper
everyone knows the real gold/silver investors buy physical and hold onto it forever.
i am onto nothing just curious.
In the late 1880's one ounce of gold would buy a new Colt pistol. It will still do that today.
I guess it's all realitive.
<< <i>Gold makes a paultry 1 or 2% move and people talk like it just dropped a few hundred dollars or something? >>
Smartest thing said thus far in this thread!
<< <i>
<< <i>Gold makes a paultry 1 or 2% move and people talk like it just dropped a few hundred dollars or something? >>
Smartest thing said thus far in this thread! >>
heh. i guess we could talk about the ounce of silver i bought last
weds. that makes for exciting conversation.
Dips or even gains don't matter to me either way really but I enjoy reading other speculating why it happened and what its gonna do next.
You will only need to hold on until next May to see a new all time high. I am comfortable holding on to my core gold positions knowing it's a good money substitute in a long term up trend. If you are comfortable holding insolvent, and grossly leveraged bank stocks that could fail overnight then by all means, hold them long term. No doubt opportunities will be missed in the short term. MoneyLA essentially tripled up from 2003 to 2008 - a 4 to 5 year hold. That's a long time. Most of the real winners in the PM bull market will be those who bought low and held on to sell into the mania stage. But how about the traders who play all the swings and don't miss opportunities? Most will lose money because they missed the biggest legs trying to get too cute or played with margin and lost it all.
I clearly remember getting ridiculed for thinking about bank stocks in march/april. gee. nice profit there. people around here talk like banks are going to disappear and become a pariah. much lulz there.
Hundreds or thousands of more banks WILL disappear. The FDIC is nearly out of funds and will need to be refilled by Treasury/Congress. The largest U.S. banks out there will consolidate yet again taking out the losers at govt/taxpayer expense. If you put your own money to work buying bank stocks in March you are to be congratulated on calling that trend. If you sat back and just watched others risk their capital then what was gained? Most of us here trying to gauge PM direction are risking our own capital on our calls. The potential for a large C wave down into the $600's or $700's is certainly possible. That risk is always out there just like it's possible the stock market could head back to 12,000 or fall to 6,000 again within the next 12 months. At some point you just have to pick a direction and play.
I would expect some more "splunging" to occur during this week.
roadrunner
Its been a ride on the S&P, but I'll ride this one awhile longer and see what the bears have in store. Fundamentals are surley mixed, PE ratios are very high, the vix is relatively low, so I'll just hang tight for now.
No qualms here. But if you go by the few postings that different forum members do from time to time and believe your getting the whole picture of their activities
and I somewhat think your a little off base.
Try the trading philosophy of betting against this forum (thats if you can pen down a 100% or even 90% consensus) and over time you will probably come to a 50/50 draw.
I'm glad we can win or lose and still be patient with the market, because it dont' care one way or the other.
Edited to add: Added to my PM store this week and last and looking forward to add more. Bought a nice newp from NEN that the darkside folks would be proud of also.
gold fails to firmly pass 1000. this forum thinks it will reach new highs.
real estate bottoms and ticks upwards in many areas. this forum thinks it has a ways more to go down.
epic fail.
What you've described are non-events, except for real estate, and there's no bottom in real estate. We're just in the 3rd inning. The stock market rallied on TARP money. There are no earnings to report, and geee.....that might be a clue as to why nobody seems to be hiring.......
<< like i said.. just do the opposite of what this forum generally thinks will happen. >>
So, to be clear - what did the forum generally think, and what did you specifically recommend?
To be clear, I'll state my position - long, very long in physical pms. Out of stocks, out of bonds, out of ETFs, out of mutual funds of all types. Low mortgage balance and a reasonable amount of cash. Buying more pms with new money. I have no financial concerns about what happens next. I think my assets are as safe as they will ever be, profit is not the prime consideration at this point.
My position won't change at all until I see the government's policies revert to something like normalcy, which I do not see happening anytime soon. So, yeah - you are kinda right about the hold time being long, very long. If the currency crashes, then I'll sell during or after the reset, but not until I know that the gambit was a winner. Being from NH, you ought to have feelings about the govmint taking what's not their to take - that's how I feel, and I'm living it.
What is your recommendation, fc? Are you out of metals entirely, because that's what your comments would lead me to think. If you don't have money to invest, it's understandable, but that shouldn't be the basis for an analysis of what's coming down the pike.
I knew it would happen.
gold fails to firmly pass 1000. this forum thinks it will reach new highs. real estate bottoms and ticks upwards in many areas. this forum thinks it has a ways more to go down.
I am sure the forum will be right on 2 out of the 3. The Dow hitting under 6600 is the one I wouldn't bet my hat on. The other 2 are in the bank as the economy and currency are years from a full recovery. The Dow can be kept > 6600 just by inflation alone. Give the bankers another Trillion to play with and I'm sure they can get us to 12,000 Dow.
The next wave of mortgage resets commences in September and doesn't really peak until summer 2011. This will be like reliving 2007-2008 all over again....only for 2 years. Toss on floundering Commerical RE that has only began to faulter and banks unwilling to show what their real holdings are in RE ........then no bottom can be seen at least until 2011-2012. Slower rate of descent? Sure. But a reversal in price? Not very likely. No doubt there will be numerous pockets and individual states around the country that defy the trend...there already are. But the averages will continue to drop esp. in areas like the northeast, Calif, Florida, upper mid-west, etc. The smaller and regional banks are much more affected by this whole mess than they are letting on and it will come out.
Stock market rallying has been on lowering volume for months. This is very different than any previous bounce of this nature. This is also the first time after such a drop where frequency trading, TARP money to gamble, and other gambits are in play. In what previous bear market bounces (or new bull market if you will) has a single bank like GS been responsible for much of the trading? (I know....they are buying and selling for their "customers"). Gold is playing the identical game at the $1,000 figure as the Dow did 30 years ago. It took the Dow SIX times and 5-6 years during the 1970's and early 1980's to finally crack the $1000 barrier for good. Gold has made 4 attempts and it seems reasonable that the 6th move to $1000 could be the last one. Round number figures like this take an exceptional amount of steam to get through because of people's natural bias towards round numbers. St. Thomas Aquinas would have called gold at $1000 the highest "fair" value to buy at because it "seemed" fair. That was the method to determine market prices until Adam Smith came along. People don't want to buy higher than a "fair" value until such a level gets taken out for good. In a nutshell it explains much of the behavior each time gold approaches $1000. "It's not fair" yet...so down it goes....esp with some PPT/banker assistance. Once broken though, there is really nothing but air >$1000. Who would have thought in the early 1980's that the Dow was headed to 1,500 let alone 10,000? I consider it nearly an impossibility at this point that $1000 gold will eventually cut like butter. You can't manage prices downward with paper substitutes for 15-25 years and not to eventually see a massive spring back for your efforts.
roadrunner