A year ago, I believed anything could happen. I still agree with the inflation possibility. I don't agree with the "China and other countries won't accept our currency" scenario.
China is in a bind, just like bondholders here are in a bind. They must have access to our markets or their entire economy craps out. Over time, that will change, but they are not in a position right now to make too many demands. On the other hand, they know that their dollars are depreciating, and will continue to do so, so they are diversifying "away" from a preponderance of dollar assets. That's not the same thing as "not accepting our currency". But, it is a "dumping" of the dollar, and it makes sense for them.
It is still better here than just about anywhere else in the world, and I believe that American's will overcome this. I do not believe the current government will survive the 2010 elections still in control of both houses of Congress either. The sleeping giant is being awoken.
The jury is out. I hope that Americans will get mad enough to assert themselves in favor of reality. I don't believe that most Americans are greedy, self-absorbed consumers - intent on raping the Earth. If it weren't for the USA, the world WOULD BE WORSE OFF, NO DOUBT ABOUT IT, imo.
Our form of government and especially its Constitutional roots has given us the gift of freedom, which most people the whole world over have never been lucky enough to experience. They still overcome difficult obstacles in order to come here. They recognize that the source of our prosperity has always been freedom.
The elitists such as Andrea Mitchell (married to Alan Greenspan, the lying little ferret) who have the temerity to suggest that Americans "don't know what is good for them," are contemptible snobs who would not deign to mingle with ordinary working folks, unless they had a propaganda piece to produce showing how Elkhart, Indiana might be benefiting from all the new government handouts to "save the day".
One of the problems that we have is that the ordinary working folks who have driven the productivity in this country for so long have lives and are grateful to spend time away from the "scene". We've worked hard to create a nest, and like to enjoy life when we aren't busting our a**es.
It's encouraging to note that people do seem to understand what has been happening for the past 6 months.
Every little bit helps, in terms of making the representative form of government work, but it can no longer be neglected. Everyone has to be involved at some level, or we still might lose our most valuable asset - our whole foundation for prosperity - our Constitution-based form of government.
Especially for the young, education is the most important thing. Education has been wrestled away from the forces of freedom, and needs to be re-taken. If the younger generation who were so galvanized during this last election by their cell phone presidential announcement proclamations can be made to understand what is happening to their chances of ever having a good life, the tide will turn. Not until.
So, I am hopeful but still not optimistic. There is a battle going on, and it's a close call. It shouldn't even be close. It should be a complete watershed to last for 3 more generations, but time will tell. It is now deja vu', much akin to Weimar 1933, all over again, except that it's happening in a much more established political system with a much stronger middle class who is beginning to know that it's being threatened.
So, in that context - my opinion on asset allocation is to focus on assets that are physical and have no liability or counter-claims attached. My list includes gold, silver, platinum, some cash, and a nominal amount of debt that I choose to keep on the books.
We are in the process of liquidating our remaining stock portfolios, and have no bonds. We have no margin accounts, money market accounts, ETFs or mutual funds. Being normal Americans who still value convenience, we will maintain a couple checking accounts and some credit cards. We don't pay our bills online. They can go pound sand.
Thus far, the net effect of these positions has been positive. I expect that this will continue to be true, until the government policies are changed dramatically in ways that promote individual responsibility and create incentives and benefits for savers, tax-payers and workers, and a substantial shrinkage of the government bureaucracies and their "mandates". <------obviously a tough nut to crack.
Just an opinion, but we are living it, and it's doing right by us.
Q: Are You Printing Money? Bernanke: Not Literally
I don't think anyone can go wrong listening to jmski, roadrunner, deadhorse, and a few others. They back everything they say with facts and I'm grateful to them for helping me get on the right track
Successful Buying and Selling transactions with:
Many members on this forum that now it cannot fit in my signature. Please ask for entire list.
<< <i>I bought a green monster box last year at $21.00/oz. or so. Bad move? Nah. Since then, I've also bought multiples of all the 2008 Plat Sets and the Gold Buff Sets, multiples of the low mintage AGEs from 2008, a roll of Gold Maples, a roll of British Gold Sovereigns, and for fun, a nice 1838 Large Cent and a nice 1849 Large Cent. They will ALL do just fine.
Stocks? I have none. Real Estate - I bought the land 10 years ago and built a house a year later, with proceeds from the dot.com stocks that I sold just before they cratered. Of course, I lost 100% of the remaining speculative dot.coms that I left in my SEP/IRA. Lesson learned - never assume that something will remain the same if it involves money.
Did I buy any bogus Chinese silver bars? Nope, never did.
A perfect record? No. A good record? Yeah, I'm pretty happy where my assets are positioned. Investing is much like navigating a super tanker. You can't turn things around on a dime (unless you're an idiot with all of his marbles in an ETF or some other trading vehicle), so it pays to look ahead a bit, and to learn what it is that you are seeing.
so i keep an eye on what people here say not to buy because so far they have a pretty good track record of being totally wrong.
Of course people will now say I'm bragging or 20-20 hindsight... but i don't care, I know how it played out. I am just soooo smart. Just ask me.
I've got $300,000 in stock accounts that at some point in the not to distant future will be all cash
Some cash may not be such a bad idea, but who the heck knows? I assume that most of it will be "re-deployed"? I'd be interested to know how you're going to allocate it. Any more real estate at some point?
I do think that the other shoe has to drop in real estate before it gets very attractive (I'm talking about FASB's flip-flopping in mark-to-market accounting and also the commercial real estate problems.) The only other problem I see with more real estate is that it is visible to the looters in the government.
Your thoughts, Norseman? >>
Well let's touch on stocks first, you say that you sold off a good portion of your dot.com stocks before they crashed bought land and built a house I would say that was a very wise decision. I've been in the stock market for quite awhile and have gotten to the point where I don't trust the greedy people running these companies as it seems that nearly everything they do is motivated by their stock options and triggering the strike prices by any means necessary including cooking the books.
As for collecting green monster Eagle boxes, Platinum Eagles, Gold Buffalo's or classic coins by all means it is up to the individual as everyone has different tastes and if you're like me they change after completion of a set or boredom sets in after spending years working on a long set. Obviously much of the pleasure derived from collecting is the thrill of the chase.
You raise some very valid concerns regarding real estate, it is visable for the world to see including the government so they can confiscate wealth from you via constant tax increases with no real recourse from you other than to go to taxation meetings and complain only to have your complaints fall on deaf ears. Real estate is not as liquid as other investments, bullion and coins can be brought to a local B&M shop or sent in the mail to a number of national dealers who will usually offer you fair prices for your merchandise, stocks and mutual funds can be sold at the stroke of a computer key or via telephone but real estate takes time sometimes months or even years to liquidate and receive your funds. I have two good friends who live in Las Vegas, one is a business broker and sales for him are way down although he occasionally puts some deals together and his commision on transactions is 10-12%, my other friend sells houses usually foreclosed property and business for him has been brisk although he only works on a 2% commision, of course many of the houses he's selling are way off their peak value sometimes selling for less than half of their peak value even in the 150,000-250,000 price range so I would say that real estate has taken a pretty big hit although from rather lofty levels. I would say that you are probably right that real estate needs to come down some more before it's a raging bargain but at some point people will invest their money and make some serious coin. As for what I will use my money in the stock accounts for it will not be any more real estate as much of it is in IRA's so I will sit in cash after riding it out for a few more weeks or until the market hits a certain level say roughly DOW 10,000 and S&P 1,050-1,100. Typically September and October are terrible months for the stock market and since the market has had an incredible run from the March lows I think it would be prudent to take most of your gains off the table come September. Once we get past October or even sometime in October if there has been a sizeable selloff I will redeploy my cash into the stock market and if there hasn't been a selloff of any magnitude then I will continue to sit in cash unless a good blue chip company or two has been unfairly punished and driven down to rediculous levels.
Maybe I sound kind of petty towards FC but I don't like it when people make pompous statements like he did and act like they're the only people here who have made any wise decisions, I've made many bad decisions in my life but I've made more good ones so I'll just have to be content with that and not come here to brag to everyone how much smarter I am than them.
Buying a house now (if you intend to live in it for awhile) strikes me as a great deal now.
Some deflationary action may yet be there to play out in some markets. But my son and his wife recently bought a house in Austin for $155K, and got a 90% 30-year fixed note at 5-1/2.
Even if prices go down some more (and I don't think they will around here), this strikes me as one of the best investments around. With the inflationary tsunami building, who among us would lend that kind of money at that rate for 30 years out!?
I don't trade any part of my coin collection. I just add to it, especially Keys when they're available...and over the past few years have added to my gold collection. I have bot and sold stocks though, so I keep a close ear to the financial markets. I think you're safe buying gold and silver and simply stashing it away for the inflation that surely awaits us all.
"Poets are the unacknowledged legislators of the world." PBShelley
Hmmm. Last time I checked, my local Walmart didn't accept bullion as a form of payment so that ain't gonna work regardless of where the products originate from.
Last time I checked they didn't take stocks or bonds either but there's a lot of places that trade all of em. Don't worry from someone that went without electric for a week during our big ice storm. Walmart won't have a thing to sell you after the 1st day so you won't need money. A trading post might work though.
<< <i>if there is anything i have learned from this forum in the last year is to do the opposite of what most here think they should do. >>
Hey I agree with that just go against fc and money LA and you'll be ok they are in the Wall Streets to big to fail crown. Go back and read how the stock market has risen more than all the money in money markets, you know like money was created out of thin air and laundered though banks just like a Capone. Hey looks like we have someone in office that knows all about Chicago politics and how to roll them out.
So what's changed? Until they actually roll out a real plan instead of damage control these cycles will be deep both ways as they try to control the menions thoughout the world.
<< <i>if there is anything i have learned from this forum in the last year is to do the opposite of what most here think they should do. >>
Hey I agree with that just go against fc and money LA and you'll be ok they are in the Wall Streets to big to fail crown. Go back and read how the stock market has risen more than all the money in money markets, you know like money was created out of thin air and laundered though banks just like a Capone. Hey looks like we have someone in office that knows all about Chicago politics and how to roll them out.
So what's changed? Until they actually roll out a real plan instead of damage control these cycles will be deep both ways as they try to control the menions thoughout the world. >>
Of course there are only a couple of real "experts" on this site but I think I'll ignore these so called "experts" and do my own thing, it's worked pretty well so far and as any person living in reality should know nobody has all the answers.
jmski---Are those beautiful coins really considered bullion? The premium over melt is more than just a few percent.
Worry is the interest you pay on a debt you may not owe.
"Paper money eventually returns to its intrinsic value---zero."----Voltaire
"Everything you say should be true, but not everything true should be said."----Voltaire
jmski---Are those beautiful coins really considered bullion? The premium over melt is more than just a few percent.
Perry Hall, I think that the correct term for them is "collector bullion coins", which some people refuse to accept as true coins, but they are.
Even some of the "regular issue" bullion Plats (from 1997 to 2003) have a very interesting finish, which is a composite of Unc & Reverse Proof - all on the same coin! That is really my favorite Plat look!!!
Well, maybe except for a nice frosty white-looking Proof:
Q: Are You Printing Money? Bernanke: Not Literally
Of course there are only a couple of real "experts" on this site but I think I'll ignore these so called "experts" and do my own thing, it's worked pretty well so far and as any person living in reality should know nobody has all the answers. >>
Oh, I have all the answers alright. Of course, most
of those answers are all wrong, but I got answers.
<< <i>Just remember - Cash is King .... no matter how worthless it gets.
When we go to sell our PMs we'll do so for worthless paper.
Egad!!
All the Silver & Gold in the world is worthless if no one has worthless paper to buy with. >>
Really? So when gold and silver was used to purchase goods directly from merchants for DECADES before paper money was ever even created, what was that?
<< <i> Of course there are only a couple of real "experts" on this site but I think I'll ignore these so called "experts" and do my own thing, it's worked pretty well so far and as any person living in reality should know nobody has all the answers. >>
Oh, I have all the answers alright. Of course, most
of those answers are all wrong, but I got answers.[/
Comments
(x2,Meltdown),cajun,Swampboy,SeaEagleCoins,InYHWHWeTrust, bstat1020,Spooly,timrutnat,oilstates200, vpr, guitarwes,
mariner67, and Mikes coins
China is in a bind, just like bondholders here are in a bind. They must have access to our markets or their entire economy craps out. Over time, that will change, but they are not in a position right now to make too many demands. On the other hand, they know that their dollars are depreciating, and will continue to do so, so they are diversifying "away" from a preponderance of dollar assets. That's not the same thing as "not accepting our currency". But, it is a "dumping" of the dollar, and it makes sense for them.
It is still better here than just about anywhere else in the world, and I believe that American's will overcome this. I do not believe the current government will survive the 2010 elections still in control of both houses of Congress either. The sleeping giant is being awoken.
The jury is out. I hope that Americans will get mad enough to assert themselves in favor of reality. I don't believe that most Americans are greedy, self-absorbed consumers - intent on raping the Earth. If it weren't for the USA, the world WOULD BE WORSE OFF, NO DOUBT ABOUT IT, imo.
Our form of government and especially its Constitutional roots has given us the gift of freedom, which most people the whole world over have never been lucky enough to experience. They still overcome difficult obstacles in order to come here. They recognize that the source of our prosperity has always been freedom.
The elitists such as Andrea Mitchell (married to Alan Greenspan, the lying little ferret) who have the temerity to suggest that Americans "don't know what is good for them," are contemptible snobs who would not deign to mingle with ordinary working folks, unless they had a propaganda piece to produce showing how Elkhart, Indiana might be benefiting from all the new government handouts to "save the day".
One of the problems that we have is that the ordinary working folks who have driven the productivity in this country for so long have lives and are grateful to spend time away from the "scene". We've worked hard to create a nest, and like to enjoy life when we aren't busting our a**es.
It's encouraging to note that people do seem to understand what has been happening for the past 6 months.
Every little bit helps, in terms of making the representative form of government work, but it can no longer be neglected. Everyone has to be involved at some level, or we still might lose our most valuable asset - our whole foundation for prosperity - our Constitution-based form of government.
Especially for the young, education is the most important thing. Education has been wrestled away from the forces of freedom, and needs to be re-taken. If the younger generation who were so galvanized during this last election by their cell phone presidential announcement proclamations can be made to understand what is happening to their chances of ever having a good life, the tide will turn. Not until.
So, I am hopeful but still not optimistic. There is a battle going on, and it's a close call. It shouldn't even be close. It should be a complete watershed to last for 3 more generations, but time will tell. It is now deja vu', much akin to Weimar 1933, all over again, except that it's happening in a much more established political system with a much stronger middle class who is beginning to know that it's being threatened.
So, in that context - my opinion on asset allocation is to focus on assets that are physical and have no liability or counter-claims attached. My list includes gold, silver, platinum, some cash, and a nominal amount of debt that I choose to keep on the books.
We are in the process of liquidating our remaining stock portfolios, and have no bonds. We have no margin accounts, money market accounts, ETFs or mutual funds. Being normal Americans who still value convenience, we will maintain a couple checking accounts and some credit cards. We don't pay our bills online. They can go pound sand.
Thus far, the net effect of these positions has been positive. I expect that this will continue to be true, until the government policies are changed dramatically in ways that promote individual responsibility and create incentives and benefits for savers, tax-payers and workers, and a substantial shrinkage of the government bureaucracies and their "mandates". <------obviously a tough nut to crack.
Just an opinion, but we are living it, and it's doing right by us.
I knew it would happen.
Many members on this forum that now it cannot fit in my signature. Please ask for entire list.
<< <i>I bought a green monster box last year at $21.00/oz. or so. Bad move? Nah. Since then, I've also bought multiples of all the 2008 Plat Sets and the Gold Buff Sets, multiples of the low mintage AGEs from 2008, a roll of Gold Maples, a roll of British Gold Sovereigns, and for fun, a nice 1838 Large Cent and a nice 1849 Large Cent. They will ALL do just fine.
Stocks? I have none. Real Estate - I bought the land 10 years ago and built a house a year later, with proceeds from the dot.com stocks that I sold just before they cratered. Of course, I lost 100% of the remaining speculative dot.coms that I left in my SEP/IRA. Lesson learned - never assume that something will remain the same if it involves money.
Did I buy any bogus Chinese silver bars? Nope, never did.
A perfect record? No. A good record? Yeah, I'm pretty happy where my assets are positioned. Investing is much like navigating a super tanker. You can't turn things around on a dime (unless you're an idiot with all of his marbles in an ETF or some other trading vehicle), so it pays to look ahead a bit, and to learn what it is that you are seeing.
so i keep an eye on what people here say not to buy because so far they have a pretty good track record of being totally wrong.
Of course people will now say I'm bragging or 20-20 hindsight...
but i don't care, I know how it played out. I am just soooo smart. Just ask me.
I've got $300,000 in stock accounts that at some point in the not to distant future will be all cash
Some cash may not be such a bad idea, but who the heck knows? I assume that most of it will be "re-deployed"? I'd be interested to know how you're going to allocate it. Any more real estate at some point?
I do think that the other shoe has to drop in real estate before it gets very attractive (I'm talking about FASB's flip-flopping in mark-to-market accounting and also the commercial real estate problems.) The only other problem I see with more real estate is that it is visible to the looters in the government.
Your thoughts, Norseman? >>
Well let's touch on stocks first, you say that you sold off a good portion of your dot.com stocks before they crashed bought land and built a house I would say that was a very wise decision. I've been in the stock market for quite awhile and have gotten to the point where I don't trust the greedy people running these companies as it seems that nearly everything they do is motivated by their stock options and triggering the strike prices by any means necessary including cooking the books.
As for collecting green monster Eagle boxes, Platinum Eagles, Gold Buffalo's or classic coins by all means it is up to the individual as everyone has different tastes and if you're like me they change after completion of a set or boredom sets in after spending years working on a long set. Obviously much of the pleasure derived from collecting is the thrill of the chase.
You raise some very valid concerns regarding real estate, it is visable for the world to see including the government so they can confiscate wealth from you via constant tax increases with no real recourse from you other than to go to taxation meetings and complain only to have your complaints fall on deaf ears. Real estate is not as liquid as other investments, bullion and coins can be brought to a local B&M shop or sent in the mail to a number of national dealers who will usually offer you fair prices for your merchandise, stocks and mutual funds can be sold at the stroke of a computer key or via telephone but real estate takes time sometimes months or even years to liquidate and receive your funds.
I have two good friends who live in Las Vegas, one is a business broker and sales for him are way down although he occasionally puts some deals together and his commision on transactions is 10-12%, my other friend sells houses usually foreclosed property and business for him has been brisk although he only works on a 2% commision, of course many of the houses he's selling are way off their peak value sometimes selling for less than half of their peak value even in the 150,000-250,000 price range so I would say that real estate has taken a pretty big hit although from rather lofty levels. I would say that you are probably right that real estate needs to come down some more before it's a raging bargain but at some point people will invest their money and make some serious coin.
As for what I will use my money in the stock accounts for it will not be any more real estate as much of it is in IRA's so I will sit in cash after riding it out for a few more weeks or until the market hits a certain level say roughly DOW 10,000 and S&P 1,050-1,100. Typically September and October are terrible months for the stock market and since the market has had an incredible run from the March lows I think it would be prudent to take most of your gains off the table come September. Once we get past October or even sometime in October if there has been a sizeable selloff I will redeploy my cash into the stock market and if there hasn't been a selloff of any magnitude then I will continue to sit in cash unless a good blue chip company or two has been unfairly punished and driven down to rediculous levels.
Maybe I sound kind of petty towards FC but I don't like it when people make pompous statements like he did and act like they're the only people here who have made any wise decisions, I've made many bad decisions in my life but I've made more good ones so I'll just have to be content with that and not come here to brag to everyone how much smarter I am than them.
Some deflationary action may yet be there to play out in some markets. But my son and his wife recently bought a house in Austin for $155K, and got a 90% 30-year fixed note at 5-1/2.
Even if prices go down some more (and I don't think they will around here), this strikes me as one of the best investments around. With the inflationary tsunami building, who among us would lend that kind of money at that rate for 30 years out!?
Here's a warning parable for coin collectors...
Last time I checked they didn't take stocks or bonds either but there's a lot of places that trade all of em. Don't worry from someone that went without electric for a week during our big ice storm. Walmart won't have a thing to sell you after the 1st day so you won't need money. A trading post might work though.
<< <i>if there is anything i have learned from this forum in the last year is
to do the opposite of what most here think they should do. >>
Hey I agree with that just go against fc and money LA and you'll be ok they are in the Wall Streets to big to fail crown. Go back and read how the stock market has risen more than all the money in money markets, you know like money was created out of thin air and laundered though banks just like a Capone. Hey looks like we have someone in office that knows all about Chicago politics and how to roll them out.
So what's changed? Until they actually roll out a real plan instead of damage control these cycles will be deep both ways as they try to control the menions thoughout the world.
Blantant Monetization Uncovered.
The FDIC Is in Trouble
Sure bullion is great for investors, but not so exciting for collectors.
<< <i>
<< <i>if there is anything i have learned from this forum in the last year is
to do the opposite of what most here think they should do. >>
Hey I agree with that just go against fc and money LA and you'll be ok they are in the Wall Streets to big to fail crown. Go back and read how the stock market has risen more than all the money in money markets, you know like money was created out of thin air and laundered though banks just like a Capone. Hey looks like we have someone in office that knows all about Chicago politics and how to roll them out.
So what's changed? Until they actually roll out a real plan instead of damage control these cycles will be deep both ways as they try to control the menions thoughout the world. >>
au contraire, mon amie'!!
Bullion is exciting:
And Pretty:
And Pretty Exciting:
But Mostly:
Fun and Rewarding.
I knew it would happen.
Many members on this forum that now it cannot fit in my signature. Please ask for entire list.
Worry is the interest you pay on a debt you may not owe.
"Paper money eventually returns to its intrinsic value---zero."----Voltaire
"Everything you say should be true, but not everything true should be said."----Voltaire
Many members on this forum that now it cannot fit in my signature. Please ask for entire list.
<< <i>Sure bullion is great for investors, but not so exciting for collectors.
au contraire, mon amie'!!
Bullion is exciting:
And Pretty:
And Pretty Exciting:
But Mostly:
Fun and Rewarding.
//// Your Platinum looks alot like mine!
(x2,Meltdown),cajun,Swampboy,SeaEagleCoins,InYHWHWeTrust, bstat1020,Spooly,timrutnat,oilstates200, vpr, guitarwes,
mariner67, and Mikes coins
Perry Hall, I think that the correct term for them is "collector bullion coins", which some people refuse to accept as true coins, but they are.
Even some of the "regular issue" bullion Plats (from 1997 to 2003) have a very interesting finish, which is a composite of Unc & Reverse Proof - all on the same coin! That is really my favorite Plat look!!!
Well, maybe except for a nice frosty white-looking Proof:
I knew it would happen.
contrarian thinking++
The next 5- 10 years, will see an enormous increase in their
value well in excess of inflation.
Camelot
I think I'll ignore these so called "experts" and do my own thing, it's worked pretty
well so far and as any person living in reality should know nobody has all the answers. >>
Oh, I have all the answers alright. Of course, most
of those answers are all wrong, but I got answers.
Camelot
When we go to sell our PMs we'll do so for worthless paper.
Egad!!
All the Silver & Gold in the world is worthless if no one has worthless paper to buy with.
<< <i>Just remember - Cash is King .... no matter how worthless it gets.
When we go to sell our PMs we'll do so for worthless paper.
Egad!!
All the Silver & Gold in the world is worthless if no one has worthless paper to buy with.
Really? So when gold and silver was used to purchase goods directly from merchants for DECADES before paper money was ever even created, what was that?
<< <i>
I think I'll ignore these so called "experts" and do my own thing, it's worked pretty
well so far and as any person living in reality should know nobody has all the answers. >>
Oh, I have all the answers alright. Of course, most
of those answers are all wrong, but I got answers.
At least you aren't a legend in your own mind.