Is this the time when coin collectors should be......
gecko109
Posts: 8,231 ✭
thinking about starting to convert their numismatic items into bullion items? I was a very enthusiastic U.S. type collector not too long ago. I had a collection worth in the neighborhood of about $20,000 or so.....respectable for sure! I was spooked however last summer when the bottom fell out of the stock and real estate markets. I didnt want to watch my coin collection face the same fate, so I sold it all off, piece by piece for about what I had into it. I immediately converted all that spare cash into gold and silver bullion. Now I get to collect for fun, and at the end of the day, the value of my collection MIGHT be worth 10% or less above the actual metals value. With my $20,000 type set, if you had melted all of the coins into a giant blob, the metal contained within was probably worth no more than $200. A very scary prospect if/when breadlines start to form in this country. Personally, im very pleased that I got out and was able to make the switch at no financial loss. I wish I could say the same about my 201k and my house....argh! So do you guys feel that it would be prudent at this time to start converting as I did last summer? Or are you going to say this hobby is strictly that....a HOBBY, and that you could care less if your common date MS65 large cent is worth $75 in the near future?
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to live in that would be better. While I don't agree with everything being done by our government today, I think believing it is going to end our life as we know is giving the gov too much credit.
Besides, what are you going to do with your bullion if things get really bad. I can't eat it and for it to still have value we will still need to have an economy of some sort. In that case I would rather have a usefull skill (Doctor, machinist, farmer, etc) than a bag of metal.
For me I will keep adding bust halves to my set.
Nobody had a whiff of any problems when Hank Paulson informed us that the banking system was about to collapse and that we were about to be placed on the hook for countless bailouts, undeserved bonuses, exorbitant spending programs and union payoffs. What Mr. Paulson really meant when he said that "we" have a problem - was really that "we, the bankers" have a problem, and that "you, the public" need to bail us out.
If you think that things have improved, you probably haven't been impacted by layoffs, shakey credit markets, higher prices, higher taxes or reduced services - yet.
The Dow was up 115 pts today. Even Richard Russell has given a buy signal. I think it's a red herring. I don't think that Gecko is over-reacting or crazy. I think that he's being cautious. It's truly telling when precious metals can be considered as safer investments than government bonds.
What concerns me most is many Americans' "it could never happen to me" attitude. After all, the government will always protect us from the bad stuff, won't it?
I knew it would happen.
Besides, what are you going to do with your bullion if things get really bad. I can't eat it and for it to still have value we will still need to have an economy of some sort. In that case I would rather have a useful skill (Doctor, machinist, farmer, etc) than a bag of metal. For me I will keep adding bust halves to my set.
I knew a month wouldn't pass from the last time the "you can't eat gold" axiom was brought up. Last month it was MoneyLA who won the award. But last I looked I wasn't able to drink my heating oil or gasoline either. And the copper wire core in my wiring is real hard on my teeth when I'm looking for a snack. For gold to have no utility in bartering the world would have to have a catastrophe that wipes out most of mankind, most of the food, or most of the water. And if that happens your coin collection won't be of much value either...other than the silver melt. So even under the most stressful conditions that mankind has been presented over the past 5000 years, gold has stood up and held its value. So economy or not, gold will still be barter as there will have to be some type of intermediate good to use for temporary holding/storage of wealth. And fiat isn't going to cut it. Precious metals work pretty well. Oil, gas, wheat, etc are difficult to store in any quantity unless you're Jim Sinclair who owns a 15,000 gallon fuel tank, grain silo, and basic out in the woods fortress. What's the farmer gonna do with his entire wheat or corn crop? Barter it in one single day for everything he needs for the next 12 months? Not likely. He would probably transfer that into a convenient, easily transported, and highly respected source of wealth. You think he's gonna take a paper IOU from someone (or a state like Calif) or promises of future dental and machinist services? If someone really needs your physician services they just might hold you at gun point until the services are rendered. And they can probably steal your gold in the same manner if they know you have it. If we get to that point, everyone is toast who doesn't live in a fortified family compound such as in Paraguay.
And should the complete "dinosaur killing" doomsday scenario come about, your vegetable garden, plot of land, guns with ammo, wood burning stove, and other end of the world amenities won't be worth squat either. Whatever rampaging hoards are left around will take it from you. And if one of the mutants used to be an Overton collector in his prior life, maybe you can barter for your life with an 1815 bust half.
When things get bad and you want to sell your gold, give me a holler. Even though I won't be able to eat it, you'll get a fair price because it will be one of the best sources of real money left. Even if I have a useful skill there is no guarantee I will be paid for it. A doctor's services aren't much use without a hospital or with medicines readily available. A machinist is of no use unless he has the needed machines in his basement or readily at his disposal when anarchy reigns. Frankly, having the gold might be easier overall, I know that's what the Bankers are counting on as they've been stashing away gold for the past 5-10 years.
roadrunner
"Ask, and it shall be given you; seek, and ye shall find; knock, and it shall be opened unto you." -Luke 11:9
"Hear, O Israel: The LORD our God is one LORD: And thou shalt love the LORD thy God with all thine heart, and with all thy soul, and with all thy might." -Deut. 6:4-5
"For the LORD is our judge, the LORD is our lawgiver, the LORD is our king; He will save us." -Isaiah 33:22
<< <i>Wow-ee. If the rampaging hoards takes all me veggies and guns and what not -- why wouldn't they just take my meager gold holdings, too? Sheesh. >>
Let's not be facetious, please. I still have thousands of coins and enjoy all the aspects of collecting that I've always enjoyed. But I feel it would be imprudent to have a substantial position in investment grade coins at this juncture of history.
"Ask, and it shall be given you; seek, and ye shall find; knock, and it shall be opened unto you." -Luke 11:9
"Hear, O Israel: The LORD our God is one LORD: And thou shalt love the LORD thy God with all thine heart, and with all thy soul, and with all thy might." -Deut. 6:4-5
"For the LORD is our judge, the LORD is our lawgiver, the LORD is our king; He will save us." -Isaiah 33:22
Rampaging hoards are generally more interested in meat, so your tomatoes and corn ought to be ok, at least for the first rampage or two.
If you let them take your guns, why do you even have them?
Where do you keep your gold, out on the kitchen counter, or on the dashboard of your car?
I knew it would happen.
<< <i>I was just going off of roadrunner's post. I have some gold (and wish I had more, just like I wish to also win the lotto) but overall, I'm a pretty happy camper. >>
Point taken. And gold does have an advantage of being mighty compact. However, what if the raving hoards possess metal detectors or portable x-ray machines or whatever, to find that stash of PMs?
"Ask, and it shall be given you; seek, and ye shall find; knock, and it shall be opened unto you." -Luke 11:9
"Hear, O Israel: The LORD our God is one LORD: And thou shalt love the LORD thy God with all thine heart, and with all thy soul, and with all thy might." -Deut. 6:4-5
"For the LORD is our judge, the LORD is our lawgiver, the LORD is our king; He will save us." -Isaiah 33:22
I was very lucky as both stocks and the currency are way lower and the PMs are up there. I'm currently thinging about rebalancing a little.
Anyhoo, if you want a real fun EOW scenario where the dead have risen and are feeding on what's left of the living, check out "The Walking Dead" comic in trade paperbacks in your local bookstore or find 'em on eBay. Rilly good reads.
<< <i>Wow-ee. If the rampaging hoards takes all me veggies and guns and what not -- why wouldn't they just take my meager gold holdings, too? Sheesh. >>
Im not prepping myself for "rampaging hoards". Just getting ready for the time when other nation's financial markets refuse accepting greenbacks anymore. At the rate we are spiraling out of control, that time will be sooner rather than later. A MAJOR devaluation is in the coming for the USD. And when that happens, people in India, China, and Japan wont give a rat's azz about some MS63 Flying Cent, but I can pretty much guarantee they will be more than happy to accept my silver and gold bullion in exchange for goods!
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<< <i>Still collecting "rare" gold pandas? Or are you strictly bullion now? >>
There are 2, perhaps 3 individual gold pandas out of the 70 or so I own where I paid a substantial premium above melt. By substantial, im talking more than melt + 50%. And one of those has a mintage of just 4,100 pieces! So, to answer your question, the VAST majority of my holdings are very closely tied to PM prices and little else.
today and he writes about this very subject.
As we all know, Monetary inflation is spiraling out of control but, according to Maybury the actual velocity of money
is still in the early phases of stage 1 (of a total of 3 stages of velocity) This is logical to me due to the deflationary
look of the economy at this point.
He feels that Numismatics will outperform bullion in stage 2, but you should be switched back to bullion by the
time stage 3 arrives.
He doesn't give any in depth analysis of why, just his opinion.
Also, I have been a subscriber to his newsletter since 05 and I don't think there has ever been a clear
explanation as to how to define the various stages.
I think you're being a little dramatic, Geeko.
Actually, the economy is showing signs of recovery.
I own a machine shop, and the salesmen that stop in tell me they're seeing more activity in alot of the shops they visit now.
The government getting people to buy cars is going to help a lot too.
As far as the bullion vs collectible coins goes, I say follow your heart.
I'd never swap my collection of Seated Quarters for bullion.
Ray
(x2,Meltdown),cajun,Swampboy,SeaEagleCoins,InYHWHWeTrust, bstat1020,Spooly,timrutnat,oilstates200, vpr, guitarwes,
mariner67, and Mikes coins
<< <i>Breadlines?
I think you're being a little dramatic, Geeko.
Actually, the economy is showing signs of recovery.
I own a machine shop, and the salesmen that stop in tell me they're seeing more activity in alot of the shops they visit now.
The government getting people to buy cars is going to help a lot too.
As far as the bullion vs collectible coins goes, I say follow your heart.
I'd never swap my collection of Seated Quarters for bullion.
Ray >>
Unemployment numbers keep rising, social programs are expanding. 800+ billion in bailout money, and more to come via catchy programs disguised as "recovery" or "stimulus" packages such as cash for clunkers. All of this comes at a cost. That cost is going to be inflation and a worldwide lack of confidence in this nation's paper currency. But you say, "look around, we are in a deflationary period". And that may be true for now. But if you consider that well over 80% of all the paper money from the U.S. currently in existance resides in foreign vaults, its easy to imagine what will happen to us when the "big dump" begins. Its going to be like a game of hot potato where nobody will want to be holding all that cash when the music stops.
(x2,Meltdown),cajun,Swampboy,SeaEagleCoins,InYHWHWeTrust, bstat1020,Spooly,timrutnat,oilstates200, vpr, guitarwes,
mariner67, and Mikes coins
<< <i>A week or so ago I decided to sell all of my overpriced "Collectible bullion" to invest it plain old no/small premium bullion. I feared people may not continue paying $50 per 5 gram silver in the near future and I would hate to sell @ melt value something which I have tens of thousands invested in. Selling now while the market on these still appears to be "hot". I also didn't want to burden my family with Hundreds/thousands of small little collectible bullion items to sell if something were to happen to me. I certainly wouldn't want them to sell to a local shop for Melt
I did the same last year Cars, as you were the beneficiary of some of the choice stuff. Although that stuff is extremely interesting, and a blast to collect, its definately a dangerous place to have alot of cash tied up in. You just dont know if/when the bottom will drop out on specialty items like that. While my collection was nowhere near as impressive or comprehensive as yours, I did have a few thousand bucks in it. My entire collection of fractional silver bars probably had a total weight of something like 40 ounces or so. After selling off the large collection, I was able to purchase more than 200 ounces of plain jane silver bullion. But when the chit hits the fan, that 200 oz will carry me a little further than those 40 ounces of cutesy bars.
My coin collection is completely seperate from my bullion stash. They serve two vital and utterly different functions.
The state of the economy didn't prompt me to convert my collectible coins into bullion. It prompted me to refine my collecting of coins and to appreciate the fact that I do have a bullion stockpile.
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I've contributed on many threads about counterfeits, so I won't go into details other than saying If extremely good, metallurgically correct, CAD die struck counterfeit coins and correct slabs don't already exist, they seem a virtual inevitability within the next 2 to 5 years. If experts will find it difficult to differentiate, then average collector/investors will have no chance. Confidence will evaporate, the entire rare coin market could collapse. We're talking pennies on the dollar--if that.
That's primarily what prompted me to sell, and better yet trade, my best numismatic pieces in favor of bullion within the last 18 months.
The global economy is showing positive signs and I do hope that we will recover and shift to a more safe and responsible financial playing field. But I'm also pragmatic and simply don't want too much of my portfolio in paper and real estate. I'm fortunate that my real estate has done fantastically well and that my community has missed the recession--so far. But realizing that I've been successful has also underscored that on paper, my real estate assets have grown way out of proportion to my other investments--including metals. So I've been re-balancing my portfolio lately in favor of metals.
--Severian the Lame
What this means for precious metals, I can't guess.
Ray
CNBC agrees with you. The rate of decline for GDP and housing has tapered off, and car sales are dramatically up.
Even Richard Russell has called for a market upswing.
What this means for precious metals?
In my view, there is a constant churning going on that is net positive for the precious metals and net negative for bonds and the dollar.
Stocks can rally in such an environment if you pump enough (taxpayer-funded) liquidity into the system, but the end game looks bad for stocks until the rules of the game are changed back to a fundamentals-based valuation scheme. There is so much bad debt on the books and PEs are so inflated - that there is no way to make after-tax money from stock investing unless the game keeps being rigged in ways that cannot be sustained - and *nobody* is willing to pay the price of changing to a fundamentals-based economy at this point but they will eventually, after a somewhat painful lesson is learned.
Stock prices simply have to be linked to earnings, and right now the earnings are not nearly robust enough to justify their current prices, especially in a deflationary environment. Earnings are not expected to rise any time soon, so that implies only one thing for stock prices (unless tons of free money is pumped into the system). The main implication is that a high rate of inflation is required. If more "money" is injected into the economy, then of course earnings will "grow" and stock prices will rise (in inflated dollars). Have fun paying taxes on those "gains" in stock prices that are only being caused by the effects of inflation.
On the other side of the ledger, the major holders of US debt are not fools. They will invest in Treasuries if it is in their own self-interest, but there is a growing realization that not everyone can "win" in the current scenario. The losers will be the last ones out the door when dollar selling commences in earnest. At the tipping point, you won't even know what happened. One day, things will be normal and the next day - the dollar will be recognized for what it has become, and foreign labor & goods will instantly be priced at the market. People worldwide will be spending their dollars as fast as they can before they drop further. I am talking about a "fishing pole" chart.
Yes, there are so many dollars floating around the world that the dollar is "too big to fail". One thing that Bernake said in Congressional testimony is that the dollar's value overseas doesn't affect people's wealth or purchasing power at home. Are you kidding me??? And he's the Fed chief, charged with promoting stable prices and a sound monetary system! That's when he lost any credibility that he might have had with me. He's either delusional or he's lying through his teeth. In sum, he's just another tool for the big bankers (you remember - the guys at Goldman Sachs et al, who made all the bad bets we paid for, so that they could walk off with million dollar bonuses this year).
I hope none of the dire stuff ever happens. But, in my assessment I can't see how the majority of it won't happen, unless the loser banks are purged from the financial system, companies who make lousy marketing choices are allowed to go under and the cheats in both private industry and government are rousted out on their butts. I don't see that happening any time soon. Hey, maybe they can keep the Ponzi going for a couple more decades - until I'm senile and then it won't matter.
I knew it would happen.
collectors will never swap for PM, that's why they collect for the enjoyment
i wouldn't mess with your collection Gecko, you have a lot of invested in time, money and love for your Pandas.
i agree with sage Cladiator in his "trimming"
i do wish i had more Au Eagles, Leafs or SA K's
And will these products be available locally or will you have to go to India, China, or Japan to acquire these "goods"?
The name is LEE!
<< <i>"And when that happens, people in India, China, and Japan wont give a rat's azz about some MS63 Flying Cent, but I can pretty much guarantee they will be more than happy to accept my silver and gold bullion in exchange for goods!"
And will these products be available locally or will you have to go to India, China, or Japan to acquire these "goods"? >>
What do you think sits on Walmart's shelves right now? I have to travel no more than 20 minutes by car to have access to hundreds of thousands of foreign imported goods. If you try to understand my point, its that someday, those countries will no longer want/accept U.S. DOLLARS for these same items. When that happens, the "revolution" begins. If Walmart must pay these foreign manufacturers in gold and silver bars, what will it want from the consumers who shop there? The only reason anyone accepts the dollar currently is because they arent yet completely fed up with whats going on. At the speed that the government "creates" these new dollars, and implements new social programs (even further deepening our debt), other nations will lose complete faith in our toilet paper....errr, ummmm I mean currency. And thats when goods will have to be purchased with HARD assets, rather than faux "assets" that can be printed off in the billions at a whim. Do you realize that it costs the U.S. the SAME amount of money to produce a $1 bill as it does a $100 bill? How long can we perpetuate this scam? How long will the masses tolerate this shell game?
<< <i>Wow-ee. If the rampaging hoards takes all me veggies and guns and what not -- why wouldn't they just take my meager gold holdings, too? Sheesh. >>
That's what my Mosberg shotgun and Ar-15 are for.
<< <i>thinking about starting to convert their numismatic items into bullion items? I was a very enthusiastic U.S. type collector not too long ago. I had a collection worth in the neighborhood of about $20,000 or so.....respectable for sure! I was spooked however last summer when the bottom fell out of the stock and real estate markets. I didnt want to watch my coin collection face the same fate, so I sold it all off, piece by piece for about what I had into it. I immediately converted all that spare cash into gold and silver bullion. Now I get to collect for fun, and at the end of the day, the value of my collection MIGHT be worth 10% or less above the actual metals value. With my $20,000 type set, if you had melted all of the coins into a giant blob, the metal contained within was probably worth no more than $200. A very scary prospect if/when breadlines start to form in this country. Personally, im very pleased that I got out and was able to make the switch at no financial loss. I wish I could say the same about my 201k and my house....argh! So do you guys feel that it would be prudent at this time to start converting as I did last summer? Or are you going to say this hobby is strictly that....a HOBBY, and that you could care less if your common date MS65 large cent is worth $75 in the near future? >>
I've been doing this for awhile now, this is how I accumulated most of my Palladium at $200 an oz. and a good share of my Silver at $6-8 an oz.
I got nervous with having so much money tied up in luxury items like coins, I also bailed on my sports cards right before that bubble burst back in the early 90's and put that money into Silver.
One thing you have to look at is what is more liquid when it comes time to sell a green monster box of Silver Eagles or an $8,000 large cent???
<< <i>For those that must collect, collecting silver bullion can be a fun thing to do Instead of just hoarding up on silver eagles,etc which get boring, it is fun to go look for neat art bars, unusual bars, etc to add to your hoard and still enjoy taking it out to show the family, etc >>
This is another great idea and something that I have been doing for a long time. Each time I go to the two coin shops I ask if they have any unusual Silver bars or rounds and every once in awhile they pull out something I can't resist buying, some of these bars made in the 70's and 80's have really low production numbers so why not buy them at a bit above spot and have not only a hunk of .999 Silver but also something that would sell for a nice profit on E-Bay???
making money. As for myseld, I am sticking
with my box of 20 type coins. It is just possible,
that I really am as stupid as I look.
Camelot
<< <i>
<< <i>For those that must collect, collecting silver bullion can be a fun thing to do Instead of just hoarding up on silver eagles,etc which get boring, it is fun to go look for neat art bars, unusual bars, etc to add to your hoard and still enjoy taking it out to show the family, etc >>
This is another great idea and something that I have been doing for a long time. Each time I go to the two coin shops I ask if they have any unusual Silver bars or rounds and every once in awhile they pull out something I can't resist buying, some of these bars made in the 70's and 80's have really low production numbers so why not buy them at a bit above spot and have not only a hunk of .999 Silver but also something that would sell for a nice profit on E-Bay??? >>
Good advice Norseman and thats what I do as well. For example, the local store had a kilo silver bar which I bought. I later saw one similar to it but a newer style sell for 700 on ebay. I paid like a dollar or so above spot and have something that if I needed to sell on ebay I could get more for it.
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Oh, and I am actually reversing trend, and have been buying up coins that prices have dropped on, and selling some of the stuff I bought a year ago at around 750-800 oz (thank you live.com). Buying and selling allows me to keep playing in the hobby.
<< <i>
<< <i>"And when that happens, people in India, China, and Japan wont give a rat's azz about some MS63 Flying Cent, but I can pretty much guarantee they will be more than happy to accept my silver and gold bullion in exchange for goods!"
And will these products be available locally or will you have to go to India, China, or Japan to acquire these "goods"? >>
What do you think sits on Walmart's shelves right now? >>
Hmmm. Last time I checked, my local Walmart didn't accept bullion as a form of payment so that ain't gonna work regardless of where the products originate from.
And BTW, they don't accept certified Morgans either.
<< <i>If Walmart must pay these foreign manufacturers in gold and silver bars, what will it want from the consumers who shop there? >>
Yeah Right!
The name is LEE!
<< <i>I am glad that you high rollers have been
making money. As for myseld, I am sticking
with my box of 20 type coins. It is just possible,
that I really am as stupid as I look.
You're not stupid Bear, you simply have the right perspective regarding "collecting" coins vs "investing" in coins.
If folks add to their collections under the premise that the prices will continue to rise, then they are just a naive as the folks that took advantage of the "speculative" interest only Real Estate Loans which caused the bulk of this economic situation in the first place.
Lets say the economic recovery is successful in 5 or 6 years. Do you suppose the price of gold and silver will maintain their current levels or could this be considered a certain amount of hype designed solely to "sell" gold to those who feel that disaster is imminent?
I like RgCoinGuys response as it provides a positive outlook instead of a doom and gloom outlook. If everybody keeps focusing on the negatives, then nothing will get accomplished and you might as well just pack it up and go home. This country has provided the backbone for financial success through out the entire world and its problems are not limited to its borders only. Everybody is feeling the pinch including those folks in India, China, and Japan!
The name is LEE!
to do the opposite of what most here think they should do.
<< <i>if there is anything i have learned from this forum in the last year is
to do the opposite of what most here think they should do. >>
Does this include you too???
<< <i>
<< <i>if there is anything i have learned from this forum in the last year is
to do the opposite of what most here think they should do. >>
Does this include you too??? >>
nope.
i really wish i would have sunk a lot of cash in stocks when most here
were calling for even lower lows. instead i bought a house and used
almost everything i had to pay it down. i was thinking in terms of the
banks of course. what a profit those would have given someone if
they bought in during feb-march.
of course a lot of people here was saying real estate was not such
a great time to be buying either with it falling each and every month.
of course now it is finally settling down and starting to recover in
most areas that are in a sane state. 8000 in cash for a first time home
buyer was a nice sweet deal too. Put a new roof on my house and
paid down a few thousand more on the mortgage.
sold off all my gold and silver, which compared to many here is not a lot,
but the price has not gone higher at all and i sold while premiums were
just insane. an ounce of silver going for 17-20 dollars. flipped whatever
i could get my hands on too.
dumped the rare coins i did not want while getting out was good.
so i keep an eye on what people here say not to buy because so far
they have a pretty good track record of being totally wrong.
of course people will now say i am bragging or 20-20 hindsight...
but i do not care. i know how it played out.
so with that said.. in a little bit it may very well be time to look for a few
rare half eagles while everyone is selling
<< <i>
<< <i>
<< <i>if there is anything i have learned from this forum in the last year is
to do the opposite of what most here think they should do. >>
Does this include you too??? >>
nope.
i really wish i would have sunk a lot of cash in stocks when most here
were calling for even lower lows. instead i bought a house and used
almost everything i had to pay it down. i was thinking in terms of the
banks of course. what a profit those would have given someone if
they bought in during feb-march.
of course a lot of people here was saying real estate was not such
a great time to be buying either with it falling each and every month.
of course now it is finally settling down and starting to recover in
most areas that are in a sane state. 8000 in cash for a first time home
buyer was a nice sweet deal too. Put a new roof on my house and
paid down a few thousand more on the mortgage.
sold off all my gold and silver, which compared to many here is not a lot,
but the price has not gone higher at all and i sold while premiums were
just insane. an ounce of silver going for 17-20 dollars. flipped whatever
i could get my hands on too.
dumped the rare coins i did not want while getting out was good.
so i keep an eye on what people here say not to buy because so far
they have a pretty good track record of being totally wrong.
of course people will now say i am bragging or 20-20 hindsight...
but i do not care. i know how it played out.
so with that said.. in a little bit it may very well be time to look for a few
rare half eagles while everyone is selling
Well I'm sure you're not the only one here who's done some things right.
I bought 450 acres of farmland at an average price of $580 an acre and now similiar land around here is selling for $3,000 an acre, I bought 80 acres of recreational woodland for $150 an acre and now it's selling for $1,200 an acre, my average price on my Silver is less than $8 an ounce, I paid $30,000 for my 2,000 square foot house with 3 stall garage and paid it off in 5 years, I still own about $40,000 in collector coins mostly branch mint Gold and matte proof Lincolns, I've got $300,000 in stock accounts that at some point in the not to distant future will be all cash, I have $30,000 in long term debt which I hope to have paid off in a couple of years...yeah I guess you could say I'm one of those totally wrong people you love to make fun of.
Of course people will now say I'm bragging or 20-20 hindsight...
but i don't care, I know how it played out.
Stocks? I have none. Real Estate - I bought the land 10 years ago and built a house a year later, with proceeds from the dot.com stocks that I sold just before they cratered. Of course, I lost 100% of the remaining speculative dot.coms that I left in my SEP/IRA. Lesson learned - never assume that something will remain the same if it involves money.
Did I buy any bogus Chinese silver bars? Nope, never did.
A perfect record? No. A good record? Yeah, I'm pretty happy where my assets are positioned. Investing is much like navigating a super tanker. You can't turn things around on a dime (unless you're an idiot with all of his marbles in an ETF or some other trading vehicle), so it pays to look ahead a bit, and to learn what it is that you are seeing.
so i keep an eye on what people here say not to buy because so far they have a pretty good track record of being totally wrong.
Of course people will now say I'm bragging or 20-20 hindsight...
but i don't care, I know how it played out. I am just soooo smart. Just ask me.
I've got $300,000 in stock accounts that at some point in the not to distant future will be all cash
Some cash may not be such a bad idea, but who the heck knows? I assume that most of it will be "re-deployed"? I'd be interested to know how you're going to allocate it. Any more real estate at some point?
I do think that the other shoe has to drop in real estate before it gets very attractive (I'm talking about FASB's flip-flopping in mark-to-market accounting and also the commercial real estate problems.) The only other problem I see with more real estate is that it is visible to the looters in the government.
Your thoughts, Norseman?
I knew it would happen.
It is fun to collect, but you have to balance with strategic thinking.
<< <i>If you have to think about trading your coins for bullion, you have too many collectable coins and should have not gone in excess. For me, sometime back, about four years ago, I started collecting $20 Libs and Saints in EF-AU, when they were selling at a minimal percentage over spot, they are pretty coins - and until about a year ago they were not trading at much above spot. Now they are insane and I have moved on to things like modern gold commems.
It is fun to collect, but you have to balance with strategic thinking. >>
Whats the "magic number" then? Lets say you own a decent amount of bullion and numismatic pieces. Should the net value be somewhere around 50/50? 60/40? In the current economic times, im thinking it should be very close to 90/10 if even that much in numismatic based items!
What this means for precious metals, I can't guess.
For $10 TRILLION+ we definitely should have bought a temporary recovery. To say that we've fixed the infrastructure that got us here (derivatives) by resolving about 15% of them may be wishful thinking.
Let's get real here. How many would be collecting coins if they knew they would be worth less every year? Probably the majority of forum members got into coins or at least stayed with them with the notion that over time they have done well price-wise as many collectibles have done. Let's not kid ourselves that we'd be spending thousands on collecting coins for 10-30 yrs while the value dropped steadily over that time. How many bullion and silver bar collectors did you know from 1984-2001? And how many since 2002?
Hmmm. Last time I checked, my local Walmart didn't accept bullion as a form of payment so that ain't gonna work regardless of where the products originate from. And BTW, they don't accept certified Morgans either.
No, but your local coin shop or any number of willing collectors within ear shot of you would be happy to cash you out so you can go shopping at Walmart. But down the road don't be surprised if Walmart and other major retailers have a hard money method to cash in right there and go shopping. Asia/Europe will do it before us.
If folks add to their collections under the premise that the prices will continue to rise, then they are just a naive as the folks that took advantage of the "speculative" interest only Real Estate Loans which caused the bulk of this economic situation in the first place.
The real estate portion of our current mess could have been bailed out on its own and the economy would be back on track...if housing were the bulk of the problem. But it's not. It's only a little tiny fraction of the entire pie. The $12 TRILL we've already committed to the financial mess could have resolved the housing crisis by itself. RE just happened to be the first market to crack. It's actually the credit and interest rate swaps that are the biggest nugget in this mess as they held more than 98% of the total derivatives risk when the economy went south. The banks realize that they are still sitting on 85% of the original problem with no ready solution other than to milk the govt for as much time and as many BILLIONS as they can shake free. The real bulk of this crisis is still yet to be unearthed and trotted about for public display.
of course a lot of people here was saying real estate was not such a great time to be buying either with it falling each and every month. of course now it is finally settling down and starting to recover in most areas that are in a sane state. 8000 in cash for a first time home buyer was a nice sweet deal too. Put a new roof on my house and paid down a few thousand more on the mortgage.
Most everyone here got it wrong? You may want to go back and revisit the main thread from 2004-2007 where there was general agreement that PM's were heading up, and stocks and housing were heading for a hurtin'. I don't see any drastic changes from that concept yet. If anything we got it right while all the housing and stock gurus like Dave Ramsey and others got played for fools.
Real Estate is currently in a lull (ie falling slower) as the number of mortgage resets in 2008/2009 shrunk. Sub-prime loans are now dealt with. But there is another peak coming on Alt-A and Option Arms starting 2nd half of 2009 and peaking in mid-2011. That peak will be similar to what happened in 2007. And even Prime loan failures will be picking up speed as well. We also haven't seen the worst yet from Commerical RE. The downdraft in prices in the Northeast have slowed, but certainly haven't stopped going down. Let's wait until the next wave of resets starts hitting in full force in 2010 before we start waving the all clear sign. A $12 TRILL "gift" by the govt doesn't fix the housing, auto, and financial sectors. And it certainly doesn't fix a $592 TRILL derivatives problem. It so far has only helped to give us the current lull. The other half of the hurricane is still going to come through even with Cash for Clunkers being placed in its path.
roadrunner
almost everyone was on the same page in 2005.