" It's just not a great time to sell any coins now"

TahoeDale · June 29, 2009 1:26PM

This comes from the recent DH update on the PCGS website.

And I agree.

This may be the reason for the slowdown in "true rare coins" appearing in dealer websites, and the upcoming auctions. There will be exceptions, like the Duckor Barber quarters, but for most of us, we want to hang on to our best coins, and if a selling opportunity comes along, perhaps a private sale, but not an auction, or a consignment.

Why? The results in the most recent auctions are showing a 20 to 30% falloff, the buyers are looking for bargains, and money is tight. Not until we see some substantial improvement in the equities market, signs of the large inflation caused by the falling dollar, and rising interest rates, will the coin market start a new upward trend.

What to do in the meantime? Play golf and enjoy life. Then...

See you at the ANA in LA.

cohodk · June 29, 2009 1:28PM

Would it be true that now is not the time to sell real estate? Or was that 2 years ago?

What if in 2 years coin values are the same or lower? What is the opportunity of holding such investments for zero return?

doh · June 29, 2009 1:30PM

I dunno...I'm still seeing new inventory on dealer's websites every week. They have to be getting those coins from somewhere.

MPLunatic · June 29, 2009 2:18PM

new inventory is there but quality inventory is lacking and if it is there the price reflects it

pennyannie · June 29, 2009 2:27PM

I watched a lot of classic cars NOT sale at auction last week because reserves were not met. Corvettes bid over 100k and falling 10k or more short of reserve. Personally i would sell and move on. I feel it may still go lower.

6 more months or a year down the road strong hands may start trembling on cars, coins and real estate.

Sunnywood · June 29, 2009 2:30PM

Why shouldn't there be a 20-30% fall-off, when (just as in the housing market) it was preceded by an 8-10 year run-up of as much as 100-200% for many categories of coins !!! Coins were ridiculously overdue for a major correction. I think you could lop off another 20-30%, and still be well above 1998-2000 levels in many cases.

Bayard1908 · June 29, 2009 2:30PM

I don't like golf. I'm buying coins instead.

ColonialCoinUnion · June 29, 2009 9:28PM

If it's really not a great time to sell any coins, then it must be a good time to buy them. Right?

PerryHall · June 29, 2009 9:40PM

<< If it's really not a great time to sell any coins, then it must be a good time to buy them. Right? >>

Right!!! Great point, CCU. There should be some good buying opportunities out there but it may require some searching.

MidLifeCrisis · June 29, 2009 10:09PM

Searching for good buying opportunities is fun in any market.

291fifth · June 29, 2009 10:14PM

<< I dunno...I'm still seeing new inventory on dealer's websites every week. They have to be getting those coins from somewhere. >>

On memo or consignment probably accounts for much of it.

291fifth · June 29, 2009 10:19PM

<< I watched a lot of classic cars NOT sale at auction last week because reserves were not met. Corvettes bid over 100k and falling 10k or more short of reserve. Personally i would sell and move on. I feel it may still go lower.

6 more months or a year down the road strong hands may start trembling on cars, coins and real estate. >>

Aren't Corvettes the Morgan Dollars of the classic car market; common but popular?

DeepCoin · June 29, 2009 10:35PM

The auction referred to included world class corvettes. It would be similar to the Jack Lee Morgan collection being sold. Many, many did not sell for reserve and those who needed cash easily received 25 - 30 percent less than they would have gotten in January 2008, possibly more.

The major rarities did not come close to reserve. I think there is an analogy to the coin market in many ways if you understand both markets.

The thing about coins is that collectors who have not had a cash flow interruption have many opportunities right now. Those who are buying to resell may be hesitant due to thinking we may not be at a bottom (I cannot make a prediction on market direction) and dealers need to understand the market has changed and price accordingly. Notice Legend has coins at reduced prices right now.

Just MHO.

One last thought, I am guessing the Duckor Barber Quarters will do well. This may seem in conflict with the above statements, but the Bloomington Gold Corvette Auction had tons of incredible cars, too much inventory for the market to absorb and prices reflected that. The Duckor coins will be one of the very few major collections available and thus place the supply / demand equation in a place where prices will be strong. Again, just one person's guess. It will be fun to see. Someone should TTT this tread with the Duckor auction results.

rgCoinGuy · June 29, 2009 10:53PM

I caught part of that Bloomington auction, so is that one of the top Vette auctions each year?

GritsMan · June 29, 2009 10:54PM

Learning to play golf adequately is going to cost me a lot more than collecting coins! As for what to do, I'm taking CladKing's advice and trying to assemble a decent pre-1999 quarter collection from circulation!

DHeath · June 29, 2009 11:03PM

If it's really not a great time to sell any coins, then it must be a good time to buy them. Right?

It's a great time to buy moderns near face value. High quality classics? Who knows. It is either a great time to buy, or you're trying to catch a falling dagger. During the 29 crash, most fortunes weren't lost on the initial sell-off. They were lost on repurchase by investors who believed the market had bottomed and it must be a good time to buy. Warren Buffett doesn't believe we're at the bottom.

Torrero · June 29, 2009 11:26PM

I agree with Sunnywood's statements. I sold some coins via auction a few months ago and while I probably received 10% to 20% less than I might have if I had sold a year ago, I'm still pleased with the results. More to the point, I used the funds to invest in an opportunity that is already up over 25%. Liek Sunnywood says, the coin market could easily correct further. In fact, if it weren't for the strong metals markets keeping many dealers liquid, it probably be much lower already.

Jay

tradedollarnut · June 29, 2009 11:29PM

It's not a horrible time to sell the right coins, tho. I just made an immediate payment offer of $675,000 on a certain coin. A year ago I valued it at approximately $750,000. So, yes - it's come down but not all that much.

What has come down is the extra 20-30% that sellers were attempting to get on top of what their coins were really worth. The irrational exhuberance "well it sold for that in auction" factor.

RedTiger · June 29, 2009 11:53PM

<< 

<< If it's really not a great time to sell any coins, then it must be a good time to buy them. Right? >>

Right!!! Great point, CCU. There should be some good buying opportunities out there but it may require some searching.

>>

For the average collector, the answer is no. Why? Because while auction results on average are 20% to 30% lower as stated in the original post, dealer asking prices on the bourse are maybe 3% lower if that. Certainly, the well connected person may be able to find coins for sale at the lower levels, but lower prices are not available to the average retail buyer walking up to a table or browsing dealer websites. Some websites are doing short term promotions like 5% or 10% off for this weekend instead of lowering prices by that much across the board. This tiered pricing, makes it a poor time to buy at retail ask.

bidask · June 29, 2009 11:57PM

<< If it's really not a great time to sell any coins, then it must be a good time to buy them. Right? >>

Wrong......when there is a lack of an active two way market, when bid/ask levels considerably widen, when dealer's inventories are being fattened by consignments so they don't have to buy.....that is not a good time to buy.

PerryHall · June 30, 2009 12:09AM

<< 

<< If it's really not a great time to sell any coins, then it must be a good time to buy them. Right? >>

Wrong......when there is a lack of an active two way market, when bid/ask levels considerably widen, when dealer's inventories are being fattened by consignments so they don't have to buy.....that is not a good time to buy. >>

What if you're a collector buying to hold for the long haul? Not evryone is an investor looking to buy for a quick flip.

coindeuce · June 30, 2009 12:23AM

Apparently Stack's doesn't necessarily think that. I was recently an underbidder on a lot in their June mail bid sale at about 30% less than the hammer price($605/$950). The coin was purchased by Stack's, and them immediately sold at Mid-America for an instant 15% markup($1100). Of course it was a PCGS holdered Proof Cameo type coin with a CAC label.

IrishMike · June 30, 2009 12:34AM

I was in a local B&M 2 weeks ago just nosing around with no intention of buying or selling, but he made me too good of an offer on 2 08's IHC's that I had contemplated ebaying. I did much better with them there. So as always it depends on what you are selling and to whom. In this case he is upgrading a couple of his clients collections. I am assuming they are price sensitive given what he paid me for them. On the other hand, he wanted to steal some nice red uncirculated 1900's IHC's.

COALPORTER · June 30, 2009 1:01AM

<< I watched a lot of classic cars NOT sale at auction last week because reserves were not met. Corvettes bid over 100k and falling 10k or more short of reserve. Personally i would sell and move on. I feel it may still go lower.

6 more months or a year down the road strong hands may start trembling on cars, coins and real estate. >>

Is any Chevy worth 100K ? People were just spending stupid money they inherited from grandma and that's all gone now.

mrearlygold · June 30, 2009 1:11AM

<< The auction referred to included world class corvettes. It would be similar to the Jack Lee Morgan collection being sold. Many, many did not sell for reserve and those who needed cash easily received 25 - 30 percent less than they would have gotten in January 2008, possibly more.
>>

Which is good news to those of us who are in the market. Would someone please show me a 66 ?

bidask · June 30, 2009 1:28AM

<< 

<< 

<< If it's really not a great time to sell any coins, then it must be a good time to buy them. Right? >>

Wrong......when there is a lack of an active two way market, when bid/ask levels considerably widen, when dealer's inventories are being fattened by consignments so they don't have to buy.....that is not a good time to buy. >>

What if you're a collector buying to hold for the long haul? Not evryone is an investor looking to buy for a quick flip. >>

By definition, collectors should buy in any market.

ziggy29 · June 30, 2009 1:30AM

<< By definition, collectors should buy in any market. >>

But even collectors who want to be long-term holders of coins aren't immune to following market trends any more than some prospective home buyers who plan to stay in their houses a long time are waiting until they think prices are done falling.

Having said that, collectors should always be ready to ante up for the right coins of uncommon quality, especially for the issues where high quality is seldom seen. In other words, it's still a good time to buy as long as you are very selective in your purchases.

yellowkid · June 30, 2009 2:21AM

Everybody has an opinion but nobody knows......

ColonialCoinUnion · June 30, 2009 2:36AM

<< 

<< If it's really not a great time to sell any coins, then it must be a good time to buy them. Right? >>

Wrong......when there is a lack of an active two way market, when bid/ask levels considerably widen, when dealer's inventories are being fattened by consignments so they don't have to buy.....that is not a good time to buy. >>

Then please explain when it IS a good time to buy.

originalisbest · June 30, 2009 2:38AM

When you have extra cash to burn and feel comfortable doing so, it is a good time to buy.

Billet7 · June 30, 2009 2:39AM

<< It's not a horrible time to sell the right coins, tho. I just made an immediate payment offer of $675,000 on a certain coin. A year ago I valued it at approximately $750,000. So, yes - it's come down but not all that much.

What has come down is the extra 20-30% that sellers were attempting to get on top of what their coins were really worth. The irrational exhuberance "well it sold for that in auction" factor.

>>

Exactly how I feel...course on a smaller scale

Elcontador · June 30, 2009 4:26AM

<< If it's really not a great time to sell any coins, then it must be a good time to buy them. Right? >>
No. For the most part, in the last two years, I've found very little material that interested me, and with one exception, the prices asked for the stuff were a sick joke.

The price run up in what I collect is similar to what I've seen in stock market bubbles in 1999-2000 and late last year. Lower end AU Heraldic Eagle Bust $s went from $4K to 10K. Type Liberty Nickels in PC 6 went from $800 to $1,600. Correctly graded CBH in PC 5 went from $4,500 to $10K. Like with the housing market, the prices of coins don't always go up in a linear fashion.

I am hoping to find some nice material at ANA at reasonable prices. If not, I'm not buying.

pennyannie · June 30, 2009 4:46AM

I like the reply TDN posted. I call it the extra helping of greed.

I am still a little miffed i was late to the game on this run up. I pissed away 100k playing for 2 years with hobbies that only returned broken parts and injuries instead of buying coins. So i welcome a good 35 percent drop when it happens. I just do not see another fast run up in the future next time

IMO who ever said corvettes were like morgans i agree with you. I am on my 5th one now.

BECOKA · June 30, 2009 4:51AM

It's always a good time to sell for the right price.

What's right is different for everyone though.

Barbercoin · June 30, 2009 4:52AM

Well, I'm buying...... or at least actively looking hard.

roadrunner · June 30, 2009 5:32AM

A retail customer can easily take advantage of the current lower prices by hiring a top dealer to buy for them at auction at a 5% commish. There is no reason to have to settle for whatever is on the bourse floor with moderate to zero price reductions. Any dealer would love to get the guaranteed 5% in this environment (ie no risk) and the colletor will get some nice coins at 20-40% discount.

I think you could lop off another 20-30%, and still be well above 1998-2000 levels in many cases.

There are a number of coins that are already back at 2000 levels...such as most MS/PF 64/65 type coins. And those levels are close to these seen in 1993 as well. Take another 20-30% off and you're right back at the bottom in 1995-1996. The few exceptions to the rule might be PCGS CAC'd coins of exceptional quality (very high end). And those are in the great minority right now. In fact I've seen some nice gem type coins that were CAC'd bring levels lower than what they worth in 1988.

I agree with Dale.

roadrunner

ambro51 · June 30, 2009 5:33AM

I AM SELLING

I AM BUYING

THATS WHAT KEEPS THE COIN MARKET VIBRANT

IF EVERYONE JUST CLAMS UP.......THATS WHEN THINGS GO BAD

adamlaneus · June 30, 2009 5:36AM

Here's a question for ambro51:

Do you think it would be possible to sell more than one gold dollar per day from your collection?

I'm not trying to call you out or challenge you or anything.

I've just noticed that one can buy coins very rapidly; it's just a matter of finding the coin. Selling them rapidly is another matter unless you are okay with getting a poor price for your coin. It's not like there is an "eBay of prospective buyers" out there like there is an "eBay of coins you can buy from sellers".

It seems to me that for many folks...it is much easier to buy than to sell.

Bear · June 30, 2009 5:39AM

One must always be positive....Thus.....

I am positive that I don't know nothing.

renomedphys · June 30, 2009 5:48AM

<< It's not a horrible time to sell the right coins, tho. I just made an immediate payment offer of $675,000 on a certain coin. A year ago I valued it at approximately $750,000. So, yes - it's come down but not all that much.

What has come down is the extra 20-30% that sellers were attempting to get on top of what their coins were really worth. The irrational exhuberance "well it sold for that in auction" factor.

>>

That's funny. I was just thinking that exact number about a certain 1838-O Half. Probably not the coin you were talking about.

Justacommeman · June 30, 2009 12:25PM

If you are in the process of building a collection softer prices are a welcome sight. If you are forced to liquidate coins to raise cash ( ala the equity market crash) now is not so good. However, it still could be better now then 2010 or 2011. The irony is that when prices go south truly nice coins don't often come out and you still have to pay a premium if they do. That can be very frustrating to a collector. I often find myself saying, " why is it that the market stinks but I'm still paying top dollar for the coins I like ? " Yes, I do talk to myself and still often lose the arguement. The reality is if you build a collection over time the odds are you will spread the risk and average in nicely. However, if you buy your collection in a short period of time you will be at the mercy of market timing. That's a flip of the coin at that point.....MJ

Rikey · June 30, 2009 12:53PM

I have been following the Muscle car auction market for 25 years. I like to go and buy something and then enjoy it and sell the car.

I don't think we will ever see the prices of 5 to 10 years ago.

Just like I don"t think we will see 48$ silver. I was in a coin store when silver was that high. Old ladies were lined out the door selling silverware. The owner looked at me and said that. Take a good look, he said, You will never see this in your lifetime.

I am 66. Think he was right. No bounce in prices. Car prices are going down much lower.

IMO

bidask · June 30, 2009 1:05PM

<< 

<< 

<< If it's really not a great time to sell any coins, then it must be a good time to buy them. Right? >>

Wrong......when there is a lack of an active two way market, when bid/ask levels considerably widen, when dealer's inventories are being fattened by consignments so they don't have to buy.....that is not a good time to buy. >>

Then please explain when it IS a good time to buy. >>

When the opposite of what I stated is occuring.

ColonialCoinUnion · June 30, 2009 1:13PM

<< 

<< 

<< 

<< If it's really not a great time to sell any coins, then it must be a good time to buy them. Right? >>

Wrong......when there is a lack of an active two way market, when bid/ask levels considerably widen, when dealer's inventories are being fattened by consignments so they don't have to buy.....that is not a good time to buy. >>

Then please explain when it IS a good time to buy. >>

When the opposite of what I stated is occuring. >>

OK - when was that last occurring? Specifically - last August? January 2007? 2002? 1979?

bidask · June 30, 2009 1:30PM

<< 

<< 

<< 

<< 

<< If it's really not a great time to sell any coins, then it must be a good time to buy them. Right? >>

Wrong......when there is a lack of an active two way market, when bid/ask levels considerably widen, when dealer's inventories are being fattened by consignments so they don't have to buy.....that is not a good time to buy. >>

Then please explain when it IS a good time to buy. >>

When the opposite of what I stated is occuring. >>

OK - when was that last occurring? Specifically - last August? January 2007? 2002? 1979? >>

I think you have a better idea on the better market periods being a professional full time dealer................

ColonialCoinUnion · June 30, 2009 1:41PM

<< 

<< 

<< 

<< 

<< 

<< If it's really not a great time to sell any coins, then it must be a good time to buy them. Right? >>

Wrong......when there is a lack of an active two way market, when bid/ask levels considerably widen, when dealer's inventories are being fattened by consignments so they don't have to buy.....that is not a good time to buy. >>

Then please explain when it IS a good time to buy. >>

When the opposite of what I stated is occuring. >>

OK - when was that last occurring? Specifically - last August? January 2007? 2002? 1979? >>

I think you have a better idea on the better market periods being a professional full time dealer................ >>

In other words, you don't know. Right?

TahoeDale · June 30, 2009 1:44PM

I totally agree with CRO, that the opposite of"not a good time to sell" may mean a good time to buy.

The only problem is that if the really nice coins are staying put, then there will not be a large number of coins I may want.

The Heritage sale at CSNS was a good time to buy. Many rare coins sold for much less than recent pricing. It was also true at FUN in January, as many lots that were unreserved went below prices for the last 4 years.

The gist of this original thread is that we may not see too many rarities coming up for sale.

ColonialCoinUnion · June 30, 2009 1:56PM

<< I totally agree with CRO, that the opposite of"not a good time to sell" may mean a good time to buy.

The only problem is that if the really nice coins are staying put, then there will not be a large number of coins I may want.

The Heritage sale at CSNS was a good time to buy. Many rare coins sold for much less than recent pricing. It was also true at FUN in January, as many lots that were unreserved went below prices for the last 4 years.

The gist of this original thread is that we may not see too many rarities coming up for sale. >>

I'm seeing a lot of good stuff come on the market because a lot of formerly tight-handed people need to raise money. Maybe not everything you're looking for, Dale, but rest assured that there will be plenty of things to buy at the ANA, and into the fall, and at FUN, etc.

pennyannie · June 30, 2009 2:05PM

Adamlaneus- I wonder that point at times myself. But i doubt that it really matters. I would think that Ambro is playing with past profit at this point. Every coin in my meager collection at this time was bought from the profit of past sold coins. That well is drying up fast now for me.

TahoeDale · June 30, 2009 2:07PM

John,

I hope you are right. I would love to buy some more Gem bust halves, at the "right" price.

DMWJR · June 30, 2009 2:12PM

Dale, what would you do if you had a box of nice coins that you wanted to sell, but didn't have to sell?? That's my dilemma.

" It's just not a great time to sell any coins now"

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&quot; It's just not a great time to sell any coins now&quot;

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" It's just not a great time to sell any coins now"