This article also discusses the large sum of cash that will be needed as soon as the debt ceiling is lifted. QE will be over, but the government will suddenly need $265B to backfill the borrowing that should be and should have been ocurring to cover recent and near-term spending. Where will the cash come from?
That's right: when the debt ceiling cap is finally lifted, and it will be lifted, with republicans "kicking and screaming", Geithner will suddenly find himself needing to plug a gap of over 2 months worth of accrued treasury issuance. Mathematically, this means the Treasury will have to sell not the $100 billion or so in net debt but well over double that in August and September. And this will happen at a time when there is no QE2 to soak up the excess slack.
<< <i>Still don't see inflation? The cost of Powerball is doubling. >>
From the article...The starting top prize will double to $40 million. So same "bang for the buck". No inflation.
In fact, from the article..The first five numbers will still be chosen from 1 to 59, but the Powerball number will shrink from 39 to 35 available numbers, giving players better odds, one could deduce deflation as the odds of winning are increasing thus offering "more bang for the buck."
<< <i>From the article...The starting top prize will double to $40 million. So same "bang for the buck". No inflation.
In fact, from the article..The first five numbers will still be chosen from 1 to 59, but the Powerball number will shrink from 39 to 35 available numbers, giving players better odds, one could deduce deflation as the odds of winning are increasing thus offering "more bang for the buck." >>
I understand they are playing with the odds and with gambling the cost of the bet really is irrelevant, it's the odds and payback that matter. But still, you double the cost of a ticket and you will sell fewer tickets and get less participation. The devil is probably in the details that weren't provided, like how much they are paying retailers per ticket that they sell, and how much revenue goes to the prize pool vs. administration, as well what are the new payouts for partial matches.
But why would they bother to alter the price of a ticket for a game that is very successful?
The answer IMO is probably of combination of the fact that the default jackpot of $20M isn't compelling enough to sell tickets anymore coupled with the fact that $1 doesn't mean much anymore.
But the bottom line is still that you can't buy a lottery ticket for 1 unit of currency anymore, and that is a pretty significant statement...
<< <i>This article also discusses the large sum of cash that will be needed as soon as the debt ceiling is lifted. QE will be over, but the government will suddenly need $265B to backfill the borrowing that should be and should have been ocurring to cover recent and near-term spending. Where will the cash come from? >>
Why "suddenly"? I would think that repayment to the cookie jar could be made over several months rather than immediately. This would smooth out the impact on the treasury market.
I'm more concerned over what happens if the debt ceiling is *not* lifted. As I mentioned in another thread, the world economy has gotten used to, and depends upon, a constant stream of newly created dollars to grease the wheels of commerce. If the presses are suddenly halted, demand for dollars will overwhelm supply, as massive quantities of dollars will still be needed to fulfill private and public contracts worldwide. The dollar still *is* the world's reserve currency.
Either scenario points to a potential cash shortage and possible interest rate spike in the near term, at least until QE3 kicks in.
Rich Dad, Poor Dad, Prepper Dad? Even Robert Kiyosaki Is Warning That an Economic Collapse Is Coming Are you familiar with Robert Kiyosaki? He is best known for the "Rich Dad, Poor Dad" series of books. Over 26 million books authored by Kiyosaki have been sold and he is recognized as a financial expert by millions of people across the globe. Well, guess what? Even Robert Kiyosaki is warning that an economic collapse is coming. In fact, Kiyosaki and his team of financial experts are encouraging Americans to stock up on food, guns and precious metals. This is yet another sign of just how close we are to the total collapse of the U.S. Economy. Kiyosaki, who once co-authored a book with Donald Trump entitled Why We Want You To Be Rich is now a full-fledged prepper. As even more prominent Americans start warning that an "economic collapse" is coming do you think that the American people will finally wake up and start paying attention?
The statements that Robert Kiyosaki makes in the video posted below are absolutely jaw-dropping. Once upon a time he was all about teaching people how they could get rich, but now he is talking about storing food, buying guns, investing in precious metals and preparing for the coming crash.
The following are 11 of the best Kiyosaki "sound bites" from the video below....
#1 "when the economy crashes as we predict"
#2 "the crowds come rushing in to buy gold and silver"
#3 "we could either go into a depression or we go to hyperinflation"
#4 "or we could also go to war"
#5 "buy a gun"
#6 "I'm preparing"
#7 "I'm prepared for the worst"
#8 "so come to my house and I'm armed and dangerous and I'll welcome you"
#9 "we have food, we have water, we have guns, gold and silver, and cash"
#10 "the credit card system shuts down, the world shuts down"
#11 "the supermarkets have less than 3 days supply"
If you have not seen this video yet, it is definitely worth the 8 minutes that it takes to watch it. Robert Kiyosaki seems to be extremely alarmed about the future of the U.S. economy....
Are you familiar with Robert Kiyosaki? He is best known for the "Rich Dad, Poor Dad" series of books. Over 26 million books authored by Kiyosaki have been sold and he is recognized as a financial expert by millions of people across the globe. Well, guess what?
The best time to sell books is when you have everyone's attention. People like to talk about "doom and gloom" now, so thats a great time to publish a book on the subject. No one would have read this book in 1999. Im not saying he is wrong, just saying one of the best selling books of 1999 was "Dow 36,000" and "Flip that House" was a popular tv show in 2006.
Many of those same soundbites were also written right here in these very threads. Where are our royalties?
<< <i>Why "suddenly"? I would think that repayment to the cookie jar could be made over several months rather than immediately. This would smooth out the impact on the treasury market. >>
Good point. I guess it doesn't have to be suddenly, but then the loan to pay the loan is accruing additional interest, so it just depends on how that debt is chosen to be managed. The sooner paid off the better, but at this point I don't know how much it matters.
No one needs Pepsi, Nike or burritos. These are purely discretionary spending items. These price increases will not effect everyone and can easily be substituted. I see nothing in these stories that is "out of the ordinary". Pepsi, Nike and fast food restraurants have been raising prices for decades. There is no acceleration of those price increases which I would view as concerning.
If the FED wants to create inflation then it should pressure Congress to create a VAT or raise minimum wage.
Cohodk -- at risk of sounding like a tax and spend type of guy -- when I was in Japan, I never understood why the Diet didn't implement a gradual, planned consumption tax increase -- for example, 1 % per year for 20 years; although it would have reduced real expendable wealth, it would counteract deflation, and would allow a material reduction in govt. debt.
I would probably get booed off the forum for proposing such a plan in the US, but, a gradual 20 year implementation of a consumption tax in the US (coupled with a balanced budget amendment and some gradual changes to entitlement programs) would allow us to completely eliminate our seemingly intractable debt problems in a manner that we could all adjust to. This type of proposal is obviously workable but is politically impossible to achieve, for the moment at least.
A vat tax on top of the 40%-50%, I already hand over to the gov't. Go back to the older Saint thread-there was a breakout of what the government takes from us. 6% sales tax here in Md, so I am already paying a VAT.
Yes, that is why it would need to be coupled with a balanced budget amendment and meaningful changes to entitlements.
Unfortunately, Republicans only see "tax increase" in such a proposal, and Democrats claim that both the balanced budget amendment and the entitlement changes work against the poor.
Without a compromise of this nature, we are in deep trouble.
Well Sir this sounds like a very intelligent idea, but of course the congress will never do this.
I think we all have to remember that we are dealing with a large group of Socialists that believe everyone in the U.S. should be getting some type of check in the mail. At this point, as pf70collector mentioned, one government or another is taking over 50% of the money from those of us that work. Why not just print all the money and debt needed, cancel all taxes, and let anyone who wants to work keep everything they make?
As far as a constitutional amendment, I believe we can forget that. These guys/gals do not believe in the Constitution any longer and breach one amendment or another every month.
No one needs Pepsi, Nike or burritos. These are purely discretionary spending items. These price increases will not effect everyone and can easily be substituted.
And that's what the CPI will do. These people can "get by" with a pair of sneakers from a Railroad Salvage store ($12.95), Stop & Shop brand soda, and burritos from Taco Bell. The CPI will register this as a price decrease due to substitutional effects to show there were no "effective" price increases. Then again, I wonder how many substitutions of these same items have occured over the past 15 yrs?
It doesn't matter how discretionary these items are. These are items that most Americans buy and spend millions or billions on, and most people will continue to buy after these price increases. And a fair assumption is that if Nike is raising prices, most or all competitors are raising prices as well. There is no escaping price increases that are due to passing cost increases on to the consumer.
In the end, it means less money for other things. Bottom line, you can't discount inflation on "optional" items when they are commonly purchased items such as these. These price increases DO AFFECT the average consumer. The one thing that is for sure - I'm not seeing a lot of articles about prices dropping.
This report says a 4th of July cookout will cost $61.16 this year vs. $54.62 last year, almost 12% more.
<< <i>No one needs Pepsi, Nike or burritos. These are purely discretionary spending items. These price increases will not effect everyone and can easily be substituted.
And that's what the CPI will do. These people can "get by" with a pair of sneakers from a Railroad Salvage store ($12.95), Stop & Shop brand soda, and burritos from Taco Bell. The CPI will register this as a price decrease due to substitutional effects to show there were no "effective" price increases. Then again, I wonder how many substitutions of these same items have occured over the past 15 yrs?
roadrunner >>
There will always be substitutions. Thats why very few companies manage to survive for a 100 years.
<< <i>It doesn't matter how discretionary these items are. These are items that most Americans buy and spend millions or billions on, and most people will continue to buy after these price increases. And a fair assumption is that if Nike is raising prices, most or all competitors are raising prices as well. There is no escaping price increases that are due to passing cost increases on to the consumer.
In the end, it means less money for other things. Bottom line, you can't discount inflation on "optional" items when they are commonly purchased items such as these. These price increases DO AFFECT the average consumer. The one thing that is for sure - I'm not seeing a lot of articles about prices dropping.
This report says a 4th of July cookout will cost $61.16 this year vs. $54.62 last year, almost 12% more. >>
All the articles about prices falling were in 2008 and 2009 when the media tried to scare everyone. And those prices dropped to 2002 levels. Seems i've heard home prices dropping every month. Yes, prices are higher than a year ago, but almost all are lower than 3 years ago. Now the media tries to scare you into believe inflation is rampant.
As of June 24, oil is unchanged for the year. Copper is down 7%, gold is up 6%, agricultural prices are down 8%. This is hardly inflationary.
<< <i>Cohodk -- at risk of sounding like a tax and spend type of guy -- when I was in Japan, I never understood why the Diet didn't implement a gradual, planned consumption tax increase -- for example, 1 % per year for 20 years; although it would have reduced real expendable wealth, it would counteract deflation, and would allow a material reduction in govt. debt.
I would probably get booed off the forum for proposing such a plan in the US, but, a gradual 20 year implementation of a consumption tax in the US (coupled with a balanced budget amendment and some gradual changes to entitlement programs) would allow us to completely eliminate our seemingly intractable debt problems in a manner that we could all adjust to. This type of proposal is obviously workable but is politically impossible to achieve, for the moment at least. >>
Then we will be booed off together, as I agree with you 100%. This country will have higher taxes and lower spending.
I got a research report from the evil , Goldman Sachs the other day that showed mortgage debt in Australia was 87% of GDP---72% in the US. I've said many times that Aussie RE is way overheated at 10x income but it has stubbornly refused to drop. That may be changing.
Here is some data from the recent 2011 Q1 derivative's report put out by the Office of the Comptroller of the Currency:
The notional value of derivatives held by U.S. commercial banks increased $12.8 trillion, or 5.5%, from the fourth quarter of 2010 to $244 trillion. The notional value of derivatives is 12.7% higher than a year ago. Derivative contracts remain concentrated in interest rate products, which comprise 82% of total derivative notional values. Credit derivatives, which represent 6.1% of total derivatives notionals, increased 5.3% to $14.9 trillion.
Almost $13 TRILL is a pretty hefty increase in one quarter among the banks reporting to the OOC. Since Q3 of 2008 when the notional value of derivative's bottomed in the wake of the Lehman failure these have increased by $68 TRILLION. This is under the atmosphere of more control and regulation of derivatives? Seems to me it's the same old game. $6.6 TRILL of the gain was from Interest Rate contracts while $6 TRILL was in Forex. Credit derivatives have been generally stable the past 2-1/2 yrs.
Kirby notes that the Bank Holding Companies don't report detailed #'s to the OOC (but rather the FED) so their breakdown of where their derivatives are stashed is basically mud. What the latest BHC data does say is that Morgan Stanley by themselves (a market cap of $35 BILL) added $9.1 TRILL in otc derivatives....almost as much as all the banks reporting to the OCC. Kirby suggests that many of those TRILLIONs probably went to keep rates and metals down. When the BHC's are added in to the mix, the total derivatives climb to $321 TRILL. One thing for sure is that controlling markets with derivatives is not waning, but increasing. This is very odd in the wake of Frankendodd. Out of 1,047 banks reporting holding derivatives, 96% of them are held by only 5 banks (ie TBTF banks).
Something else I noted in the report was that in 2010 an increase of $100 BILL in gold otc derivatives (commercial banks only) occured which in hindsight would have been a potent hammer to turn the gold market by year's end. Gold had a very strong year in 2010 rising by 36% from its Feb bottom. It just refused to go away. A doubling of total gold derivatives similar to what was done to silver in July 2008 finally did the trick. If you can't beat the metals on the Comex or in regular trading, do it via derivatives with 100-1 leverage plus the safety net of socialized losses. That extra $100 BILL was backed off by 60% by end of Q1 2011. That extra $100 BILL bump in derivatives was roughly equivalent to selling 2500 tons of gold in 2010....or the same as 1 year's worth of global production. Essentially all of that increase was in contracts of <1 yr duration (obviously). And people used to get excited about the ECU selling 500 tons/yr or the IMF selling 100-200 tons here or there! Wonder where that "2500 tons of gold" came from?
Links to the derivative's report are in the article listed below.
1. All major banks are fundamentally bankrupt as the paper they are pricing fully
is actually not worth anything.
2. The FDIC is also bankrupt. That is the institution that is guarantees your bank accounts up to a max of 250,000 dollars.
3. US Bonds are overpriced and their safe haven reputation is in doubt.
4. The rise in the stock market is rather suspect as the general economy will be depressed for many years to come, no matter how much money is poured in by the Government.
5.Rare coins, though subject to their own ups and downs, if carefully selected and held, should in time, do very well indeed.
6. Real estate is a big question mark. Values after a slight burp up, seems headed for at least another year or two of declines. I see Property taxes shooting up, water bills shooting up, deductions on interest paid with a reduced cap, as well as property tax deductions eliminated. Owning a home or rental property will get more expensive and troublesome. People out of work cant opay the rent on rental properties.
7.PMs will have violent fluctuations due to Government meddling, but in the long haul, will offer protection against a total loss of actual wealth.
8.If disruptions of commerce should occur, I strongly recommend that those taking long term medication for chronic conditions build up a supply of several months. One never knows about disruptions in supplies if a true breakdown of the economy does occur. If all remains well, then you have a supply to use up over time.
9. Let us continue to have faith in the future and in better times to come. However, do take reasonable precautions as best you can, without becoming a fanatic about it.
8. If disruptions of commerce should occur, I strongly recommend that those taking long term medication for chronic conditions build up a supply of several months. One never knows about disruptions in supplies if a true breakdown of the economy does occur. If all remains well, then you have a supply to use up over time.
Another way of preparing for this is to get oneself weened off these drugs by improving one's diet and creating a more healthy lifestyle. Most drugs have equivalents in nature that can do about the same thing w/o the cost and side effects. The only way to get on track is to start researching and do some legwork. There are numerous simple alternatives for improving blood pressure, blood sugar, cholesterol levels/ratios, etc. all with essentially zero downside. One of my concerns down the road is the rising cost of regular and long term healthcare. And rather than wait for the cost to be too much of a burden, it makes sense to optimize one's health now so your odds of needing the care is either much less or pushed years down the road. Health Care for those over 55 or 60 may soon become a luxury few can afford.
"Ask, and it shall be given you; seek, and ye shall find; knock, and it shall be opened unto you." -Luke 11:9
"Hear, O Israel: The LORD our God is one LORD: And thou shalt love the LORD thy God with all thine heart, and with all thy soul, and with all thy might." -Deut. 6:4-5
"For the LORD is our judge, the LORD is our lawgiver, the LORD is our king; He will save us." -Isaiah 33:22
<< <i>8. If disruptions of commerce should occur, I strongly recommend that those taking long term medication for chronic conditions build up a supply of several months. One never knows about disruptions in supplies if a true breakdown of the economy does occur. If all remains well, then you have a supply to use up over time.
Another way of preparing for this is to get oneself weened off these drugs by improving one's diet and creating a more healthy lifestyle. Most drugs have equivalents in nature that can do about the same thing w/o the cost and side effects. The only way to get on track is to start researching and do some legwork. There are numerous simple alternatives for improving blood pressure, blood sugar, cholesterol levels/ratios, etc. all with essentially zero downside. One of my concerns down the road is the rising cost of regular and long term healthcare. And rather than wait for the cost to be too much of a burden, it makes sense to optimize one's health now so your odds of needing the care is either much less or pushed years down the road. Health Care for those over 55 or 60 may soon become a luxury few can afford.
roadrunner >>
Excellent advice . I am happy to report that even after being fked by a surgeon who performed a failed open heart surgery on me in 2005 and then being told "you'll be on these medications the rest of your life" I decided to take a different path and that meant a giant leap of faith by doing the things I'm doing and NOT taking ANY medications. I was told I would become a biology lesson on a stainless steel slab by 1 of these "doctors". Oh yeah? It's been 6 YEARS now and my vascular problems are essentially frozen in place in the worst case and have actually reversed in some areas ( the carotids ) in the best case by NOT doing what I was told. Am trying to apply the same principles with my neck/cervical problems which I was told I absolutely need surgery. That was 2+ years ago. The jury is still out on that one. If you have Back or Neck problems and suffer pain try Dean Moyers books " Rebuild your back" "Rebuild your neck" and "pain management" and you to will hopefully avoid the knife, life with less pain or even pain free and therefore a longer happier life. Here's a link to those books Rebuild Your Back,Neck -Dean Moyer And if you suffer heart disease like me or have any other vascular problems PLEASE try this before you let them cut you open. edta chelation ( forget that jerk in pennsylvania who run the "quack" websites. He's a phd number 1 and just a shill for the anti everything non mainstream crowd. A jerk who told me that I must have gotten better for some other reason. Yeah. Here's where you can find a doc for this and other holitistic treatments: ACAM.ORG and if your a glutton for information and want to read my story of coming back from the dead go to the very beginning of the threads on this essentially dead yahoo group which I formed as my own diary Chelation Group I left no stone unturned, be prepared to read a few pages. I originally did this as a way to measure any progress I would make. I had no idea it would work as good as it has and I've SEEN people who I regularly saw in therapy, who came in on crutches with blue ankles and within 3-4 months no longer had blue ankles and walked without a crutch or cane. So I guess it helps some people with diabetes too but that comment should be left to an MD who does this. Mine is in Sarasota but there's several in the Boca Raton area where we are buying another house and retiring. Some places are very friendly to it like Souther California which is off the charts in terms of availability. A friend of mine who lives in the beverly hills area has over 50 different MD's in his general area who offer chelation. Tennesee on the other hand does not have a single source for it which is why we wrote the place off years ago as a place to possibly retire. North Carolina it the opposite and there's some GREAT doctors in Asheville for example that offer it.
I'm supposed to be dead. I was also told by THREE surgeons that I NEEDED multiple surgeries. ONe guy told me that my body was producing plaque so fast it that I should make sure my house was in order. My right carotid was 70++ % blocked. That was 6 years ago. No more. It's behind 50% now . I could not walk to my mailbox and back without stopping at least once, sometimes twice and 3 times because of the unbelievable pain shooting up and down my legs. Now I speed walk several miles. It took a LOT to get to this point. I went to the FUN show in 2006 and could NOT make it to the building much less the bourse. Any idea how frustrating that was? I will be at the next FUN show and won't stop walking even if I'm waaaay in the back parking lot. No problemo now and that is a miracle.
Sorry for the long one but I thought I'd add my own suggestions after Roadrunners short and smart posting. Good luck, Life is great
Some medications are truly the difference, between life and death.
Undoubtedly there are numerous exceptions. Sorry to hear your wife needs these meds to survive. My brother has had T.1 diabetes from a very early age and I don't know if he could survive w/o his medications. But hopefully they eventually will find the gene or switch that triggers T.1 and figure out a way to turn the insulin machinery back "on."
On the inflation/deflation front I visited my local farmer's market this morning and was surprised a bit at the prices. The free range beef ranged about $12-$15/lb. Some Copper River salmon (Pacific Northwest) was $18/lb. While the price of some packaged and processed foods that don't have sugar, chocolate or other more costly substances continues to go down, the cost of real and healthy food never really falls. It's the same analogy with high quality coins. There aren't many of them, they are good for you, and that's why the prices stay up and keep going up over time. One can certainly eat on the cheap if nutrition and your health is not part of the equation. Eating junk on the cheap can probably get you a life of 55-65 years. Eating healthy can help get you to age 75-95. I guess based on the yearly cost of living those in the 55-65 got away on the cheap....and checked out up to 30 yrs early. One can still buy a 5 oz can of tuna fish on sale for $1.00 which is probably already a substitution factor in the CPI for Copper River salmon.
I've read some information on chelation EDTA therapy for blood vessels and will dig deeper via Mr. Early's links. 2 months ago I attended a free seminar in the Hartford, CT area on latest techniques in heart health and diagnosis. The doctor was in his early to mid-30's and was pretty much only presenting the options of drugs, surgery, and various testing to optimize one's hearth health. Was quite disappointed that the words vitamins, minerals, herbs, and spices were never mentioned. However in passing he did mention the DASH diet and not eating high cholesterol foods like egg yolks. My grandfather ate sausage, eggs, toast and butter for breakfast most days of the week up until he was 95. There's a lot more to heart health than cholesterol. And in 20 yrs I wouldn't be surprised if they have decided that cholesterol was just a secondary marker of something more sinister like homocysteine. It's ironic that ancient cultures figured out ways to combat diseases naturally and we Americans in the 21st century have discounted much of that knowledge as nonsense as we prefer to undergo chemo, heart bypasses, and wolf down synthetic prescription drugs and genetically modified foods bathed in pesticides.
Will we see a take down of Silver on foreign markets on Monday? The old "take it out" on low volume overseas markets on a Holiday trick? Tuesday morning everyone panics!
(edited to add)
mrearlygold, I'm glad you are feeling better!
Si vis pacem, para bellum
In God We Trust.... all others pay in Gold and Silver!
<< <i>RR, Will we see a take down of Sliver on foreign markets on Monday? The old "take it out" on low volume overseas markets on a Holiday trick? Tuesday morning everyone panics! >>
It's a good question. And I think we will. If not Monday overseas or on Tuesday's open, then maybe something by end of the week. The opportunity is there so why wouldn't the banksters take advantage of it again? The liquidity trades got a lot of money pumped in over the past week. The stock market went vertical in a week and is unsustainable. And in that "strong" environment with even oil recovering, silver and gold took some hits by end of the week. The dollar also fell every day last week and then flattened out on Friday. I wouldn't be surprised if the markets take a dive next week as the dollar rebounds following this "Greece has been saved" euphoria. Yeah, Greece was saved for another week...lol.
Silver and gold are apparently in a new downtrend after breaking out of consolidation patterns ending about 7-8 days ago. It will take some strong effort to turn that around now. Silver may not need any additional thumping as the main markets pulling back will be more than enough impetus to get it done. I have no bets placed right now either way but if I had to, I'd be shorting PM's and stocks for a short term trade. If you look back at last June/July the stock market did a sharp rebound not unlike it's doing now. And if you look at gold during last June/July it made a fairly extended 2nd drop into late July. Would make sense that it should follow a similar pattern again. So dropping down to $1440-1450 major support would also give it a lower low and retest that long consolidaton pattern from Nov-April. If gold does that it will pull silver down with it. Now that I've said all that....go do just the opposite.
I'm also not assuming that Friday's $1478 could have well been a bottom for gold. If one draws an uptrend line from the top of the Jan-Feb cup formation it tends to hit most of the highs and lows from Oct through July 1st. What's interesting is that both the May bottom ($1462) and Friday's bottom ($1478) have hit that line. Over the past year or so I've noticed that gold has tended to respect that line quite well. And for now, it's held. In any case, gold has hung tough since last October.
Is a U.S. Default Inevitable? by Patrick J. Buchanan
As President Bush prepared to invade Iraq in September 2002, the head of his economic policy council, Lawrence Lindsey publicly estimated such a war could cost $100 billion to $200 billion.
Lindsey had committed candor, and the stunned Bush-ites came down on him with both feet.
"Baloney," said Donald Rumsfeld. The likely cost would be $60 billion, said Mitch Daniels of the Office of Management and Budget. We can finance the war with Iraqi oil, said Paul Wolfowitz.
By year's end, Lindsey was gone, back, in Ronald Reagan's phrase, "testing the magic of the marketplace."
And the cost of the Iraq War? It has passed $1 trillion.
So Lindsey is worth listening to. And he is now saying that the Obamaites may be wildly underestimating the deficits America is going to run in this decade. Here is why.
The average rate of interest the Fed has had to pay to borrow for the last two decades has been 5.7 percent. However, President Obama is projecting the cost of money at only 2.5 percent. Is a U.S. Default Inevitable?
The average rate of interest the Fed has had to pay to borrow for the last two decades has been 5.7 percent. However, President Obama is projecting the cost of money at only 2.5 percent.
He might be right. If they take over our pension plans while redirecting everyone into TBonds and govt annuities, they can borrow that money at whatever rate they want.
<<The average rate of interest the Fed has had to pay to borrow for the last two decades has been 5.7 percent. However, President Obama is projecting the cost of money at only 2.5 percent. >>
He might be right. If they take over our pension plans while redirecting everyone into TBonds and govt annuities, they can borrow that money at whatever rate they want.
Going back to the chart that I keep glued to my forehead - the one which shows how the Real Inflation Rate impacts the pricing of gold (and silver) - I would note that if the cost of money is somehow kept down below 2.5%, the 90 day T-Bill rate yield would necessarily be somewhat anchored to that number.
The Real Inflation Rate is defined as the 90 day T-Bill rate minus the rate of inflation. WHENEVER the Real Inflation Rate is low or negative, gold and silver perform VERY WELL.
So, the main issue is not necessarily what the level of interest rates are, but how those "low" interest rates compare to the rate of inflation. As long as the rate of inflation exceeds the short term Treasury Rate (90 day T-Bills), and as long as the government LIES about the rate of inflation - gold and silver will climb.
What's more, if everyone's money is redirected into TBonds and govt annuities, the size of the captive audience is large enough as to greatly increase the disparities between those who jump off the wagon and buy gold vs. those who do not. The government, in their infinite stupidity is always making things worse for those people who can't think for themselves, and everyone else as well.
My observation is that the banking cartel doesn't control the world economy via the US and European economies the way that they used to. Other foreign interests are not going to trash their gold assets the way that Gordon Brown trashed England's with a fire sale on gold. The ship is being righted, no thanks to the local rats who will ultimately grab as much as possible before they jump OFF the ship.
Nothing has changed.
Q: Are You Printing Money? Bernanke: Not Literally
Some interesting charts from a newsletter I receive, that pertain to the cut spending vs. taxes debate. The charts show that there is a limit to taxes, and that the stock market does poorly when taxes exceed 18%.
There may be a little room to raise taxes, but spending is the bigger problem.
The article points out that the tax figures generally reflect economic activity and tax policy from a year ago.
Another bad jobs report today. These morons in Congress haven't got a clue. When you destroy your manufacturing base in sacrifice for cheap goods..... Our GDP to debt ratio was the same as it was during WWII but this time we can't grow out of this like we did in the past.
June is normally a hefty month for the birth death model input. So out of those +18,000 jobs reported today.....131,000 of them came from the black box CES BD model.
That means -113,000 jobs might be a closer number once the voodoo is subtracted back out.
Comments
We will shortly find out how sane the sane really are. 25 days vacation is MANDATORY in Germany. Whats so bad that? LOL
Knowledge is the enemy of fear
<< <i>QE2+ or QE3- ? >>
Mix that with the release of oil....... QE3 done!
In God We Trust.... all others pay in Gold and Silver!
<< <i>
<< <i>QE2+ or QE3- ? >>
Mix that with the release of oil....... QE3 done! >>
Wish that was true but there will be a QE3. Probably sooner than later.
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This article also discusses the large sum of cash that will be needed as soon as the debt ceiling is lifted. QE will be over, but the government will suddenly need $265B to backfill the borrowing that should be and should have been ocurring to cover recent and near-term spending. Where will the cash come from?
That's right: when the debt ceiling cap is finally lifted, and it will be lifted, with republicans "kicking and screaming", Geithner will suddenly find himself needing to plug a gap of over 2 months worth of accrued treasury issuance. Mathematically, this means the Treasury will have to sell not the $100 billion or so in net debt but well over double that in August and September. And this will happen at a time when there is no QE2 to soak up the excess slack.
<< <i>Still don't see inflation? The cost of Powerball is doubling. >>
From the article...The starting top prize will double to $40 million. So same "bang for the buck". No inflation.
In fact, from the article..The first five numbers will still be chosen from 1 to 59, but the Powerball number will shrink from 39 to 35 available numbers, giving players better odds, one could deduce deflation as the odds of winning are increasing thus offering "more bang for the buck."
Knowledge is the enemy of fear
<< <i>From the article...The starting top prize will double to $40 million. So same "bang for the buck". No inflation.
In fact, from the article..The first five numbers will still be chosen from 1 to 59, but the Powerball number will shrink from 39 to 35 available numbers, giving players better odds, one could deduce deflation as the odds of winning are increasing thus offering "more bang for the buck." >>
I understand they are playing with the odds and with gambling the cost of the bet really is irrelevant, it's the odds and payback that matter. But still, you double the cost of a ticket and you will sell fewer tickets and get less participation. The devil is probably in the details that weren't provided, like how much they are paying retailers per ticket that they sell, and how much revenue goes to the prize pool vs. administration, as well what are the new payouts for partial matches.
But why would they bother to alter the price of a ticket for a game that is very successful?
The answer IMO is probably of combination of the fact that the default jackpot of $20M isn't compelling enough to sell tickets anymore coupled with the fact that $1 doesn't mean much anymore.
But the bottom line is still that you can't buy a lottery ticket for 1 unit of currency anymore, and that is a pretty significant statement...
<< <i>This article also discusses the large sum of cash that will be needed as soon as the debt ceiling is lifted. QE will be over, but the government will suddenly need $265B to backfill the borrowing that should be and should have been ocurring to cover recent and near-term spending. Where will the cash come from? >>
Why "suddenly"? I would think that repayment to the cookie jar could be made over several months rather than immediately. This would smooth out the impact on the treasury market.
I'm more concerned over what happens if the debt ceiling is *not* lifted. As I mentioned in another thread, the world economy has gotten used to, and depends upon, a constant stream of newly created dollars to grease the wheels of commerce. If the presses are suddenly halted, demand for dollars will overwhelm supply, as massive quantities of dollars will still be needed to fulfill private and public contracts worldwide. The dollar still *is* the world's reserve currency.
Either scenario points to a potential cash shortage and possible interest rate spike in the near term, at least until QE3 kicks in.
My Adolph A. Weinman signature
Are you familiar with Robert Kiyosaki? He is best known for the "Rich Dad, Poor Dad" series of books. Over 26 million books authored by Kiyosaki have been sold and he is recognized as a financial expert by millions of people across the globe. Well, guess what? Even Robert Kiyosaki is warning that an economic collapse is coming. In fact, Kiyosaki and his team of financial experts are encouraging Americans to stock up on food, guns and precious metals. This is yet another sign of just how close we are to the total collapse of the U.S. Economy. Kiyosaki, who once co-authored a book with Donald Trump entitled Why We Want You To Be Rich is now a full-fledged prepper. As even more prominent Americans start warning that an "economic collapse" is coming do you think that the American people will finally wake up and start paying attention?
The statements that Robert Kiyosaki makes in the video posted below are absolutely jaw-dropping. Once upon a time he was all about teaching people how they could get rich, but now he is talking about storing food, buying guns, investing in precious metals and preparing for the coming crash.
The following are 11 of the best Kiyosaki "sound bites" from the video below....
#1 "when the economy crashes as we predict"
#2 "the crowds come rushing in to buy gold and silver"
#3 "we could either go into a depression or we go to hyperinflation"
#4 "or we could also go to war"
#5 "buy a gun"
#6 "I'm preparing"
#7 "I'm prepared for the worst"
#8 "so come to my house and I'm armed and dangerous and I'll welcome you"
#9 "we have food, we have water, we have guns, gold and silver, and cash"
#10 "the credit card system shuts down, the world shuts down"
#11 "the supermarkets have less than 3 days supply"
If you have not seen this video yet, it is definitely worth the 8 minutes that it takes to watch it. Robert Kiyosaki seems to be extremely alarmed about the future of the U.S. economy....
Robert Kiyosaki Is Warning That an Economic Collapse Is Coming
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Tom Pilitowski
US Rare Coin Investments
800-624-1870
Liberty: Parent of Science & Industry
The best time to sell books is when you have everyone's attention. People like to talk about "doom and gloom" now, so thats a great time to publish a book on the subject. No one would have read this book in 1999. Im not saying he is wrong, just saying one of the best selling books of 1999 was "Dow 36,000" and "Flip that House" was a popular tv show in 2006.
Many of those same soundbites were also written right here in these very threads. Where are our royalties?
Knowledge is the enemy of fear
<< <i>Why "suddenly"? I would think that repayment to the cookie jar could be made over several months rather than immediately. This would smooth out the impact on the treasury market. >>
Good point. I guess it doesn't have to be suddenly, but then the loan to pay the loan is accruing additional interest, so it just depends on how that debt is chosen to be managed. The sooner paid off the better, but at this point I don't know how much it matters.
More inflation articles:
Pepsi, Coke Raise Prices Ahead of July 4
Chipotle Will Raise its Prices Regionally
Nike raises sales forecast; to lift prices
If the FED wants to create inflation then it should pressure Congress to create a VAT or raise minimum wage.
Knowledge is the enemy of fear
I would probably get booed off the forum for proposing such a plan in the US, but, a gradual 20 year implementation of a consumption tax in the US (coupled with a balanced budget amendment and some gradual changes to entitlement programs) would allow us to completely eliminate our seemingly intractable debt problems in a manner that we could all adjust to. This type of proposal is obviously workable but is politically impossible to achieve, for the moment at least.
Box of 20
Unfortunately, Republicans only see "tax increase" in such a proposal, and Democrats claim that both the balanced budget amendment and the entitlement changes work against the poor.
Without a compromise of this nature, we are in deep trouble.
Well Sir this sounds like a very intelligent idea, but of course the congress will never do this.
I think we all have to remember that we are dealing with a large group of Socialists that believe everyone in the U.S. should be getting some type of check in the mail. At this point, as pf70collector mentioned, one government or another is taking over 50% of the money from those of us that work.
Why not just print all the money and debt needed, cancel all taxes, and let anyone who wants to work keep everything they make?
As far as a constitutional amendment, I believe we can forget that. These guys/gals do not believe in the Constitution any longer and breach one amendment or another every month.
Interesting video on gold!
link
And that's what the CPI will do. These people can "get by" with a pair of sneakers from a Railroad Salvage store ($12.95), Stop & Shop brand soda, and burritos from Taco Bell.
The CPI will register this as a price decrease due to substitutional effects to show there were no "effective" price increases. Then again, I wonder how many substitutions of these same items have occured over the past 15 yrs?
roadrunner
In the end, it means less money for other things. Bottom line, you can't discount inflation on "optional" items when they are commonly purchased items such as these. These price increases DO AFFECT the average consumer. The one thing that is for sure - I'm not seeing a lot of articles about prices dropping.
This report says a 4th of July cookout will cost $61.16 this year vs. $54.62 last year, almost 12% more.
<< <i>No one needs Pepsi, Nike or burritos. These are purely discretionary spending items. These price increases will not effect everyone and can easily be substituted.
And that's what the CPI will do. These people can "get by" with a pair of sneakers from a Railroad Salvage store ($12.95), Stop & Shop brand soda, and burritos from Taco Bell.
The CPI will register this as a price decrease due to substitutional effects to show there were no "effective" price increases. Then again, I wonder how many substitutions of these same items have occured over the past 15 yrs?
roadrunner >>
There will always be substitutions. Thats why very few companies manage to survive for a 100 years.
Knowledge is the enemy of fear
<< <i>It doesn't matter how discretionary these items are. These are items that most Americans buy and spend millions or billions on, and most people will continue to buy after these price increases. And a fair assumption is that if Nike is raising prices, most or all competitors are raising prices as well. There is no escaping price increases that are due to passing cost increases on to the consumer.
In the end, it means less money for other things. Bottom line, you can't discount inflation on "optional" items when they are commonly purchased items such as these. These price increases DO AFFECT the average consumer. The one thing that is for sure - I'm not seeing a lot of articles about prices dropping.
This report says a 4th of July cookout will cost $61.16 this year vs. $54.62 last year, almost 12% more. >>
All the articles about prices falling were in 2008 and 2009 when the media tried to scare everyone. And those prices dropped to 2002 levels. Seems i've heard home prices dropping every month. Yes, prices are higher than a year ago, but almost all are lower than 3 years ago. Now the media tries to scare you into believe inflation is rampant.
As of June 24, oil is unchanged for the year. Copper is down 7%, gold is up 6%, agricultural prices are down 8%. This is hardly inflationary.
Knowledge is the enemy of fear
<< <i>Cohodk -- at risk of sounding like a tax and spend type of guy -- when I was in Japan, I never understood why the Diet didn't implement a gradual, planned consumption tax increase -- for example, 1 % per year for 20 years; although it would have reduced real expendable wealth, it would counteract deflation, and would allow a material reduction in govt. debt.
I would probably get booed off the forum for proposing such a plan in the US, but, a gradual 20 year implementation of a consumption tax in the US (coupled with a balanced budget amendment and some gradual changes to entitlement programs) would allow us to completely eliminate our seemingly intractable debt problems in a manner that we could all adjust to. This type of proposal is obviously workable but is politically impossible to achieve, for the moment at least. >>
Then we will be booed off together, as I agree with you 100%. This country will have higher taxes and lower spending.
Knowledge is the enemy of fear
Here is a good one The average cost of union labor at Chrysler Group LLC fell to $49 an hour in 2010 as a result of cost-cutting deals with the United Auto Workers union, the company said on its web site.
Knowledge is the enemy of fear
Australian home prices in 2011 have fallen the most in three years
Knowledge is the enemy of fear
The notional value of derivatives held by U.S. commercial banks increased $12.8 trillion, or 5.5%, from the fourth quarter of 2010 to $244 trillion. The notional value of derivatives is 12.7% higher than a year ago. Derivative contracts remain concentrated in interest rate products, which comprise 82% of total derivative notional values. Credit derivatives, which represent 6.1% of total derivatives notionals, increased 5.3% to $14.9 trillion.
Almost $13 TRILL is a pretty hefty increase in one quarter among the banks reporting to the OOC. Since Q3 of 2008 when the notional value of derivative's bottomed in the wake of the
Lehman failure these have increased by $68 TRILLION. This is under the atmosphere of more control and regulation of derivatives? Seems to me it's the same old game. $6.6 TRILL
of the gain was from Interest Rate contracts while $6 TRILL was in Forex. Credit derivatives have been generally stable the past 2-1/2 yrs.
Kirby notes that the Bank Holding Companies don't report detailed #'s to the OOC (but rather the FED) so their breakdown of where their derivatives are stashed is basically mud. What the latest BHC data does say is that Morgan Stanley by themselves (a market cap of $35 BILL) added $9.1 TRILL in otc derivatives....almost as much as all the banks reporting to the OCC. Kirby suggests that many of those TRILLIONs probably went to keep rates and metals down. When the BHC's are added in to the mix, the total derivatives climb to $321 TRILL. One thing for sure is that controlling markets with derivatives is not waning, but increasing. This is very odd in the wake of Frankendodd. Out of 1,047 banks reporting holding derivatives, 96% of them are held by only 5 banks (ie TBTF banks).
Something else I noted in the report was that in 2010 an increase of $100 BILL in gold otc derivatives (commercial banks only) occured which in hindsight would have been a potent hammer to turn the gold market by year's end. Gold had a very strong year in 2010 rising by 36% from its Feb bottom. It just refused to go away. A doubling of total gold derivatives similar to what was done to silver in July 2008 finally did the trick. If you can't beat the metals on the Comex or in regular trading, do it via derivatives with 100-1 leverage plus the safety net of socialized losses. That extra $100 BILL was backed off by 60% by end of Q1 2011. That extra $100 BILL bump in derivatives was roughly equivalent to selling 2500 tons of gold in 2010....or the same as 1 year's worth of global production. Essentially all of that increase was in contracts of <1 yr duration (obviously). And people used to get excited about the ECU selling 500 tons/yr or the IMF selling 100-200 tons here or there! Wonder where that "2500 tons of gold" came from?
Links to the derivative's report are in the article listed below.
Rob Kirby's article
roadrunner
is actually not worth anything.
2. The FDIC is also bankrupt. That is the institution that is guarantees your bank accounts
up to a max of 250,000 dollars.
3. US Bonds are overpriced and their safe haven reputation is in doubt.
4. The rise in the stock market is rather suspect as the general economy will be depressed
for many years to come, no matter how much money is poured in by the Government.
5.Rare coins, though subject to their own ups and downs, if carefully selected and held, should
in time, do very well indeed.
6. Real estate is a big question mark. Values after a slight burp up, seems headed for at least
another year or two of declines. I see Property taxes shooting up, water bills shooting up, deductions
on interest paid with a reduced cap, as well as property tax deductions eliminated. Owning a home or
rental property will get more expensive and troublesome. People out of work cant opay the rent on rental
properties.
7.PMs will have violent fluctuations due to Government meddling, but in the long haul, will offer protection
against a total loss of actual wealth.
8.If disruptions of commerce should occur, I strongly recommend that those taking long term medication for
chronic conditions build up a supply of several months. One never knows about disruptions in supplies if a true
breakdown of the economy does occur. If all remains well, then you have a supply to use up over time.
9. Let us continue to have faith in the future and in better times to come. However, do take reasonable precautions
as best you can, without becoming a fanatic about it.
Camelot
chronic conditions build up a supply of several months. One never knows about disruptions in supplies if a true
breakdown of the economy does occur. If all remains well, then you have a supply to use up over time.
Another way of preparing for this is to get oneself weened off these drugs by improving one's diet and creating a more healthy lifestyle. Most drugs have
equivalents in nature that can do about the same thing w/o the cost and side effects. The only way to get on track is to start researching and do some legwork.
There are numerous simple alternatives for improving blood pressure, blood sugar, cholesterol levels/ratios, etc. all with essentially zero downside.
One of my concerns down the road is the rising cost of regular and long term healthcare. And rather than wait for the cost to be too much of a burden,
it makes sense to optimize one's health now so your odds of needing the care is either much less or pushed years down the road. Health Care for those over
55 or 60 may soon become a luxury few can afford.
roadrunner
a day or she will be subjected to continual blood clots that could make her blind, a cripple
or dead. There is really no other substitute that works on her and the drug is produced in
France. Thus, I have built up a 7 month supply over the past 20 years and just rotate the
stock to keep it fresh. Some medications are truly the difference, between life and death.
Camelot
"Ask, and it shall be given you; seek, and ye shall find; knock, and it shall be opened unto you." -Luke 11:9
"Hear, O Israel: The LORD our God is one LORD: And thou shalt love the LORD thy God with all thine heart, and with all thy soul, and with all thy might." -Deut. 6:4-5
"For the LORD is our judge, the LORD is our lawgiver, the LORD is our king; He will save us." -Isaiah 33:22
<< <i>8. If disruptions of commerce should occur, I strongly recommend that those taking long term medication for
chronic conditions build up a supply of several months. One never knows about disruptions in supplies if a true
breakdown of the economy does occur. If all remains well, then you have a supply to use up over time.
Another way of preparing for this is to get oneself weened off these drugs by improving one's diet and creating a more healthy lifestyle. Most drugs have
equivalents in nature that can do about the same thing w/o the cost and side effects. The only way to get on track is to start researching and do some legwork.
There are numerous simple alternatives for improving blood pressure, blood sugar, cholesterol levels/ratios, etc. all with essentially zero downside.
One of my concerns down the road is the rising cost of regular and long term healthcare. And rather than wait for the cost to be too much of a burden,
it makes sense to optimize one's health now so your odds of needing the care is either much less or pushed years down the road. Health Care for those over
55 or 60 may soon become a luxury few can afford.
roadrunner >>
Excellent advice . I am happy to report that even after being fked by a surgeon who performed a failed open heart surgery on me in 2005 and then being told "you'll be on these medications the rest of your life" I decided to take a different path and that meant a giant leap of faith by doing the things I'm doing and NOT taking ANY medications. I was told I would become a biology lesson on a stainless steel slab by 1 of these "doctors". Oh yeah? It's been 6 YEARS now and my vascular problems are essentially frozen in place in the worst case and have actually reversed in some areas ( the carotids ) in the best case by NOT doing what I was told. Am trying to apply the same principles with my neck/cervical problems which I was told I absolutely need surgery. That was 2+ years ago. The jury is still out on that one. If you have Back or Neck problems and suffer pain try Dean Moyers books " Rebuild your back" "Rebuild your neck" and "pain management" and you to will hopefully avoid the knife, life with less pain or even pain free and therefore a longer happier life. Here's a link to those books Rebuild Your Back,Neck -Dean Moyer And if you suffer heart disease like me or have any other vascular problems PLEASE try this before you let them cut you open. edta chelation ( forget that jerk in pennsylvania who run the "quack" websites. He's a phd number 1 and just a shill for the anti everything non mainstream crowd. A jerk who told me that I must have gotten better for some other reason. Yeah.
Here's where you can find a doc for this and other holitistic treatments: ACAM.ORG and if your a glutton for information and want to read my story of coming back from the dead go to the very beginning of the threads on this essentially dead yahoo group which I formed as my own diary Chelation Group I left no stone unturned, be prepared to read a few pages. I originally did this as a way to measure any progress I would make. I had no idea it would work as good as it has and I've SEEN people who I regularly saw in therapy, who came in on crutches with blue ankles and within 3-4 months no longer had blue ankles and walked without a crutch or cane. So I guess it helps some people with diabetes too but that comment should be left to an MD who does this. Mine is in Sarasota but there's several in the Boca Raton area where we are buying another house and retiring. Some places are very friendly to it like Souther California which is off the charts in terms of availability. A friend of mine who lives in the beverly hills area has over 50 different MD's in his general area who offer chelation. Tennesee on the other hand does not have a single source for it which is why we wrote the place off years ago as a place to possibly retire. North Carolina it the opposite and there's some GREAT doctors in Asheville for example that offer it.
I'm supposed to be dead. I was also told by THREE surgeons that I NEEDED multiple surgeries. ONe guy told me that my body was producing plaque so fast it that I should make sure my house was in order. My right carotid was 70++ % blocked. That was 6 years ago. No more. It's behind 50% now . I could not walk to my mailbox and back without stopping at least once, sometimes twice and 3 times because of the unbelievable pain shooting up and down my legs. Now I speed walk several miles. It took a LOT to get to this point. I went to the FUN show in 2006 and could NOT make it to the building much less the bourse. Any idea how frustrating that was? I will be at the next FUN show and won't stop walking even if I'm waaaay in the back parking lot. No problemo now and that is a miracle.
Sorry for the long one but I thought I'd add my own suggestions after Roadrunners short and smart posting. Good luck, Life is great
Coin's for sale/trade.
Tom Pilitowski
US Rare Coin Investments
800-624-1870
Undoubtedly there are numerous exceptions. Sorry to hear your wife needs these meds to survive. My brother has had T.1 diabetes from a very early age and I don't know if he
could survive w/o his medications. But hopefully they eventually will find the gene or switch that triggers T.1 and figure out a way to turn the insulin machinery back "on."
On the inflation/deflation front I visited my local farmer's market this morning and was surprised a bit at the prices. The free range beef ranged about $12-$15/lb. Some Copper River salmon (Pacific Northwest) was $18/lb. While the price of some packaged and processed foods that don't have sugar, chocolate or other more costly substances continues to go down, the cost of real and healthy food never really falls. It's the same analogy with high quality coins. There aren't many of them, they are good for you, and that's why the prices stay up and keep going up over time. One can certainly eat on the cheap if nutrition and your health is not part of the equation. Eating junk on the cheap can probably get you a life of 55-65 years. Eating healthy can help get you to age 75-95. I guess based on the yearly cost of living those in the 55-65 got away on the cheap....and checked out up to 30 yrs early. One can still buy a 5 oz can of tuna fish on sale for $1.00 which is probably already a substitution factor in the CPI for Copper River salmon.
I've read some information on chelation EDTA therapy for blood vessels and will dig deeper via Mr. Early's links. 2 months ago I attended a free seminar in the Hartford, CT area on latest techniques in heart health and diagnosis. The doctor was in his early to mid-30's and was pretty much only presenting the options of drugs, surgery, and various testing to optimize one's hearth health. Was quite disappointed that the words vitamins, minerals, herbs, and spices were never mentioned. However in passing he did mention the DASH diet and not eating high cholesterol foods like egg yolks. My grandfather ate sausage, eggs, toast and butter for breakfast most days of the week up until he was 95. There's a lot more to heart health than cholesterol. And in 20 yrs I wouldn't be surprised if they have decided that cholesterol was just a secondary marker of something more sinister like homocysteine. It's ironic that ancient cultures figured out ways to combat diseases naturally and we Americans in the 21st century have discounted much of that knowledge as nonsense as we prefer to undergo chemo, heart bypasses, and wolf down synthetic prescription drugs and genetically modified foods bathed in pesticides.
roadrunner
Will we see a take down of Silver on foreign markets on Monday? The old "take it out" on low volume overseas markets on a Holiday trick? Tuesday morning everyone panics!
(edited to add)
mrearlygold, I'm glad you are feeling better!
In God We Trust.... all others pay in Gold and Silver!
Coin's for sale/trade.
Tom Pilitowski
US Rare Coin Investments
800-624-1870
<< <i>RR, Will we see a take down of Sliver on foreign markets on Monday? The old "take it out" on low volume overseas markets on a Holiday trick? Tuesday morning everyone panics!
>>
It's a good question. And I think we will. If not Monday overseas or on Tuesday's open, then maybe something by end of the week. The opportunity is there so why wouldn't the banksters take advantage of it again? The liquidity trades got a lot of money pumped in over the past week. The stock market went vertical in a week and is unsustainable. And in
that "strong" environment with even oil recovering, silver and gold took some hits by end of the week. The dollar also fell every day last week and then flattened out on Friday. I wouldn't be surprised if the markets take a dive next week as the dollar rebounds following this "Greece has been saved" euphoria. Yeah, Greece was saved for another week...lol.
Silver and gold are apparently in a new downtrend after breaking out of consolidation patterns ending about 7-8 days ago. It will take some strong effort to turn that around now. Silver
may not need any additional thumping as the main markets pulling back will be more than enough impetus to get it done. I have no bets placed right now either way but if I had to, I'd
be shorting PM's and stocks for a short term trade. If you look back at last June/July the stock market did a sharp rebound not unlike it's doing now. And if you look at gold during last June/July it made a fairly extended 2nd drop into late July. Would make sense that it should follow a similar pattern again. So dropping down to $1440-1450 major support would also give it a lower low and retest that long consolidaton pattern from Nov-April. If gold does that it will pull silver down with it. Now that I've said all that....go do just the opposite.
I'm also not assuming that Friday's $1478 could have well been a bottom for gold. If one draws an uptrend line from the top of the Jan-Feb cup formation it tends to hit most of the
highs and lows from Oct through July 1st. What's interesting is that both the May bottom ($1462) and Friday's bottom ($1478) have hit that line. Over the past year or so I've noticed that gold has tended to respect that line quite well. And for now, it's held. In any case, gold has hung tough since last October.
gold chart
roadrunner
In God We Trust.... all others pay in Gold and Silver!
NPR planet money
<< <i>some interesting deductive reasoning.
The quicker this blows up the quicker we can pop the inflation bubble. Who has a pin?
The advancements in medicine have been a double edged sword.
Knowledge is the enemy of fear
by Patrick J. Buchanan
As President Bush prepared to invade Iraq in September 2002, the head of his economic policy council, Lawrence Lindsey publicly estimated such a war could cost $100 billion to $200 billion.
Lindsey had committed candor, and the stunned Bush-ites came down on him with both feet.
"Baloney," said Donald Rumsfeld. The likely cost would be $60 billion, said Mitch Daniels of the Office of Management and Budget. We can finance the war with Iraqi oil, said Paul Wolfowitz.
By year's end, Lindsey was gone, back, in Ronald Reagan's phrase, "testing the magic of the marketplace."
And the cost of the Iraq War? It has passed $1 trillion.
So Lindsey is worth listening to. And he is now saying that the Obamaites may be wildly underestimating the deficits America is going to run in this decade. Here is why.
The average rate of interest the Fed has had to pay to borrow for the last two decades has been 5.7 percent. However, President Obama is projecting the cost of money at only 2.5 percent.
Is a U.S. Default Inevitable?
Coin's for sale/trade.
Tom Pilitowski
US Rare Coin Investments
800-624-1870
He might be right. If they take over our pension plans while redirecting everyone into TBonds and govt annuities, they can borrow that money at whatever rate they want.
roadrunner
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He might be right. If they take over our pension plans while redirecting everyone into TBonds and govt annuities, they can borrow that money at whatever rate they want.
Going back to the chart that I keep glued to my forehead - the one which shows how the Real Inflation Rate impacts the pricing of gold (and silver) - I would note that if the cost of money is somehow kept down below 2.5%, the 90 day T-Bill rate yield would necessarily be somewhat anchored to that number.
The Real Inflation Rate is defined as the 90 day T-Bill rate minus the rate of inflation. WHENEVER the Real Inflation Rate is low or negative, gold and silver perform VERY WELL.
So, the main issue is not necessarily what the level of interest rates are, but how those "low" interest rates compare to the rate of inflation. As long as the rate of inflation exceeds the short term Treasury Rate (90 day T-Bills), and as long as the government LIES about the rate of inflation - gold and silver will climb.
What's more, if everyone's money is redirected into TBonds and govt annuities, the size of the captive audience is large enough as to greatly increase the disparities between those who jump off the wagon and buy gold vs. those who do not. The government, in their infinite stupidity is always making things worse for those people who can't think for themselves, and everyone else as well.
My observation is that the banking cartel doesn't control the world economy via the US and European economies the way that they used to. Other foreign interests are not going to trash their gold assets the way that Gordon Brown trashed England's with a fire sale on gold. The ship is being righted, no thanks to the local rats who will ultimately grab as much as possible before they jump OFF the ship.
Nothing has changed.
I knew it would happen.
<< <i>Silver Demand In China Is Rising >>
This could accelerate Chinese demand even further.
My Adolph A. Weinman signature
I knew it would happen.
<< <i>
<< <i>some "current" info on tungsten/gold refining
maybe Ron Paul should dip a few bars at Ft Knox? >>
And why would Dr Paul want to do that? >>
sorry, i can't even remember why i'd make that comment
the article is a wee bit long but not a real brain cramp to read
There may be a little room to raise taxes, but spending is the bigger problem.
The article points out that the tax figures generally reflect economic activity and tax policy from a year ago.
Box of 20
That means -113,000 jobs might be a closer number once the voodoo is subtracted back out.
One million deaths from smoking and heart disease in 2009 - none from marijuana and terrorists
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