<< <i>I want to know with all the "printing" and negative sentiment, why isnt the dollar lower? >>
That's what they are saying... it IS lower in terms of gold and other assets/commodities and real purchasing power. >>
All right, well I give up then. No one knows.
I do believe one can buy a vehicle or house with less dollars than in 2004, even equities. But I digress. >>
The dollar isn't lower because monetization hasn't reached it's peak. Monetization = devaluation. Banks have paid back most of the tarp money, second round of billions approved for stimulus haven't been dispersed yet, treasuries are still being purchased, etc.
The trouble for the dollar and gold going parabolic may happen in 2011. Why? When "Bush's" tax cuts expire December 31,2010 will the big rise in taxes be enough to limit monetization because of increased revenues? (always thought it strange, people call it Bush's taxcuts..... it's America's tax cuts.) Also will new taxes (health care, pensions etc) bring in enough revenue to limit monetization?
There you have it..... if revenues can keep monetization under control DOLLAR WILL STAY FAIRLY STRONG
I want to know with all the "printing" and negative sentiment, why isnt the dollar lower?
Give it time. it will eventually reach those low levels you are asking for. I suppose after peaking in 1985 and then dropping to a bottoming zone in 2008 the dollar was due to bounce back again. The fact that it has held it's relative value to a selected group of consumer items from 2004-2010 doesn't necessarily speak to strong fundamentals. As already mentioned one can look throughout the markets and find many items (esp important ones) where the dollar hasn't held up over the past 4-6 years (ie PM's, oil, industrial metals, sugar, coffee, educational costs, various insurances, federal/state/local taxes and fees, health care (esp. non-group plans), professional fees (lawyers, doctors, tradesmen, accountants, brokers, etc), ticket prices to shows/plays/sporting events/etc., used car prices, car washes, Superman 1938 comic #1, etc. The price of some things will continue to escalate while others stagnate or go lower. I would admit that a number of the above items have escalated too much since 2004 and some pullback in prices is to be expected going forward.
The dollar may hold up longer than the Euro and a basket of other world currencies. But it continues to be a race to the bottom. Just because the dollar could get there last isn't cause for celebration or the awarding of a gold medal for fiscal fortitude. The dollar only has 3% of it's 1913 value left to go to hit zero. But as Zeno's paradox shows, that last 3% can be fractioned an infinite number of times.
I mention the used car prices because while new car sales have been floundering, used cars are under intense competition by both new and used car dealers. Quality used car prices are escalating and will probably continue to do so. While finding a new car is child's play, try to find a 4-6 yr old cream puff used car. The same effect could eventually be seen in the prices of inexpensive smaller homes as people try to downsize from McMansions thereby placing a floor under the Mini-me's. Single family rentals? Shouldn't they be going up in price as people move away from home ownership? And since 40% of the CPI measures the effective rental of one's home, shouldn't that cause CPI to rise as well?
A lot of the dollar's strength is tied to the TBond market continuing to hold its own since 2008. Should that not be the case at some time in the future, nothing will be able to keep the dollar propped up. Should the TBond falter, the dollar will fall very quickly. And it's probably only a matter of time before TBonds follow Greecian, Spanish, British and other selected bonds down the drain.
As far as banks "paying back" most of the TARP money that's sort of an illusion. Reggie Middletown did an article a few months back showing all the free bennies the bankers got besides TARP..about a dozen in total. If one added up all the incentives and subtle money that was handed out under the various alphabet soup programs, they have barely scratched the surface in paying back the funds they received, starting with the essentially zero interest-rate funds they have borrowed from the FED's various windows. Claiming to have paid back TARP is just smoke and mirrors.
<< <i>The dollar may hold up longer than the Euro and a basket of other world currencies. But it continues to be a race to the bottom. Just because the dollar could get there last isn't cause for celebration or the awarding of a gold medal for fiscal fortitude. The dollar only has 3% of it's 1913 value left to go to hit zero. But as Zeno's paradox shows, that last 3% can be fractioned an infinite number of times. >>
Also... the USD is up or strong against the pound and euro and yen, but at or near lows vs. the Loonie, Australian dollar, and others.
"Oops?" Sorry, made a comment and then thought better of it therefore Oops.
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Hummmmmm, GS, I like it. 3% of the money supply is actual cash...interesting. Support for the idea that there really isn't much actual cash out there. If we have a bank holiday, this lack of actual cash in circulation should quickly become very perplexing. When folk here talk about cranking up the printing presses, it is not actually like they are printing money, they are just monetizing debt electronically. They aren't actually printing physical money. As the actual physical cash supply dwindles and we go further to accounting for money with electronic digits, it just furthers the ambition of everything being digital and not physical. When everything is electronic (it's already 97%), then every cent that everyone has will be known by our gov. and dealt with appropriately. It can be known where you spent it, where you got it, how much you have left, how much is saved, how much credit you have left and oh yeah, how much tax you owe. At that point, it won't be your money per se, it will just be money that you have. And people just love those debit cards so. Enjoy
"Ask, and it shall be given you; seek, and ye shall find; knock, and it shall be opened unto you." -Luke 11:9
"Hear, O Israel: The LORD our God is one LORD: And thou shalt love the LORD thy God with all thine heart, and with all thy soul, and with all thy might." -Deut. 6:4-5
"For the LORD is our judge, the LORD is our lawgiver, the LORD is our king; He will save us." -Isaiah 33:22
I find it very ironic that the Obama administration wants to regulate banks more closely, when it is the one who loosened FASB's standards to allow full book valuation of derivatives that can't be valued because they are so screwed up and most likely, worthless.
Q: Are You Printing Money? Bernanke: Not Literally
An important reason to regulate more tightly or at least watch them more closely is to ensure that the pile of otc derivatives stay buried for as long as possible. They don't want those things poking their heads into daylight until long down the road. Though a rising of interest rates will quickly bring the $170 TRILL in US bank interest rate swaps to the surface with the "winners" of the bets looking to be paid off by the losers (or the taxpayers should the loser default). In any case talking about bank regulation and doing it are quite different. If they do close any current loopholes in the regulations they will create other ones that the banksters can work around. The fact that the banks are still creating these otc derivatives swaps says that they haven't learned one thing....other than they get bigger bonuses with the more swaps they create.
Here is Sinclair's current assessment of the Greece situation. I think the nations understand the risk of allowing the banksters to flush down one currency after another. And therefore bailouts and further bouts of QE seem to be the more likely outcome.
Greece will fail and be rescued is all that is discussed in the financial world. Here is the real skinny:
1. Greece getting bailed out means QE (printing of money) to infinity. That means gold would rise from here to $1650 by January of 2011, or as Martin Armstrong said, by June of 2011. The dollar would fall. Equities and commodities would rise.
2. Greece getting flushed means that would enrich the CDS OTC derivative tool. Immediately the next target currencies will be attacked by this tool. Currencies will fall like dominoes. At first the dollar will strengthen, equities will fall and gold will go lower. However, soon the recognition will come that a disaster has occurred that is more serious than the Lehman flushing. Confidence in currencies will fall everywhere. Gold will then rise not to $1650 by the same time in 2011 but to $5000 and perhaps beyond.
Either way both paved the road to a single virtual reserve currency and a single Central Bank (IMF) of Central Banks.
If Greece is bailed out it will take longer for the establishment of the single virtual reserve currency. If Greece is flushed it will happen so fast you will lose your breathe.
Either way I see gold as the only reliable fundamentally correct safe harbor. Gold will play a part at a very high price with the single virtual reserve currency in order to keep gold from being a competitor with it.
Gold's role will be in the form of the Federal Reserve Gold Certificate Ratio, not tied to the dollar, but rather tied to the single virtual reserve currency in a ratio to a measure of world liquidity. There will be no interest rate automaticity to the new form for gold's role in a monetary system. It will follow the many articles I have written on the FRGCR but not tied to the dollar but rather the single virtual reserve currency.
Gold will not be fixed or convertible but will trade within a market as a close band of the price gold is trading at when the single virtual reserve currency is created and will lend to this construct some real validity.
I do not favor any of this, but it will occur.
There is no other possibility to this unprecedented calamity at hand.
The only comment I would have on Sinclair's comments is that I think gold will de-couple from the dollar... yes the dollar may strengthen when other currencies collapse, but physical and paper gold demand from the affected regions (and others) will boost gold as people flee their currency for the USD *AND OTHER* assets like gold. With gold inventories tight, gold demand should stabilize or raise the price even in USD. And you can see that in the current price... The USD is at 80.0... and gold is back near 1140...
<< <i>The previous 4 times that the dollar was around 81 the gold price ranged from $700-$940 (Sept 07 - June 09). This time around it's >$1100.
roadrunner >>
am i the only one other than RR and ProofCollection to have noticed this? i have been away for sometime, moving my office and all the details, so if i missed a post about this sorry in advance and a redirect would be nice...
Though a rising of interest rates will quickly bring the $170 TRILL in US bank interest rate swaps to the surface with the "winners" of the bets looking to be paid off by the losers (or the taxpayers should the loser default).
The best way to get rid of banks making bets on derivatives is to let the "winners" get stiffed by non-payment, and to let the losers start looking for real jobs. Taxpayers seem to be on the hook in both directions. That's so wrong that it's hard to describe in how many ways it is wrong.
am i the only one other than RR and ProofCollection to have noticed this?
Yes, only the three of you. But, since you mention it, it does seem to me that such a thing speaks of the strength of gold as *the* go-to asset.
It seems to me that this progression isn't going to stop anytime soon, unless lots of things change in a better direction. It could happen, but so far, lot's of talk and not much action in the right direction.
Q: Are You Printing Money? Bernanke: Not Literally
The best way to get rid of banks making bets on derivatives is to let the "winners" get stiffed by non-payment, and to let the losers start looking for real jobs. Taxpayers seem to be on the hook in both directions. That's so wrong that it's hard to describe in how many ways it is wrong. >>
Don't forget we're also on the hook for tens of thousands in the banking industry getting enormous bonuses whether they end western civilization or not. We're also on the hook for earnning .05% on our savings and paying 20% on our debt.
Poor bankers. It's hard fgor them to make ends meet unless they're stealing us blind and getting taxpayer money.
Don't forget we're also on the hook for tens of thousands in the banking industry getting enormous bonuses whether they end western civilization or not. We're also on the hook for earnning .05% on our savings and paying 20% on our debt.
Poor bankers. It's hard fgor them to make ends meet unless they're stealing us blind and getting taxpayer money. >>
Don't forget we're also on the hook for tens of thousands in the banking industry getting enormous bonuses whether they end western civilization or not. We're also on the hook for earnning .05% on our savings and paying 20% on our debt.
Poor bankers. It's hard fgor them to make ends meet unless they're stealing us blind and getting taxpayer money. >>
Cladking, yes you are right and this made me sick reading this. Wells Fargo CEO pay doubles to $18.7 million Link >>
"Wells Fargo said last month that it will allow shareholders to cast a nonbinding vote on compensation for the bank's top five executives. The vote will come at the bank's annual meeting in April.
Oh, that's just precious. They're going to ALLOW the owners of the company to vote on whether the person at the helm is overpaid or not. As long as they agree that he should get 100% of company profits then they'll do what the owners say.
If people (the stockholders) were still sane they'd take back control of this company and fire the individual who composed this statement and then demand that the company be rationalized. They's probably fire all or most of the top five executives as well.
An excerpt from Doug Noland's weekly market summary. This week he discussed the reflation move of the past 12 months. Since he doesn't sell anything and is not a gold or fiat bug his views tend to be very objective.
Throughout the post-tech Bubble reflationary period, mortgage Credit expansion was viewed as integral to the solution. Mortgage finance was basically off limits from a regulatory standpoint, with this dynamic providing major impetus for historic Credit and speculative excess. Rather than recognizing an unfolding mortgage finance Bubble as a systemic risk, policymakers were content to feed the excess and look the other way. Of course, a speculative marketplace figured this all out and took full advantage. The government's multifaceted (Fed, GSEs, Treasury, etc.) support of mortgage finance fanned speculative excess and directly fueled the Bubble.
These days, the Administration's watered-down "Volcker rule" - which will likely be diluted to water-like reform legislation in Congress - excludes the government debt markets from proprietary trading restrictions. Government finance is today's unfolding Bubble and, not surprisingly, this Bubble is off limits for regulatory reform. Government deficits are integral to the Bubble, and there will be no serious effort to rein them in. The Fed's balance sheet is a serious Bubble issue, but it also remains untouchable. Treasury, GSEs, and Federal Reserve Credit are viewed as the solution, and a historic Bubble is emboldened and builds momentum.
The markets' perception of "too big to fail" has for years been an integral facet of Bubble dynamics. And despite all the talk of trying to rid the marketplace of this notion, the markets remain more persuaded than ever: the unfolding global government finance Bubble is much too gigantic for policymakers to risk letting it come anywhere close to failing. Massive U.S. deficits and near-zero interest rates ensure a steady flow of finance (newly created as well as an ongoing exodus out of low-yielding instruments) to debt markets around the world. Confidence runs high that ultra-loose U.S. financial conditions will continue to underpin Credit expansions globally. Politicians may talk tough, and they do put on a good show. Meanwhile, markets function with reticent aplomb, knowing they've got policymakers right where they want them.
Uncapping the previous Fannie and Freddie limits through 2012 was one of the first key steps to support the above.
"Uncapping the previous Fannie and Freddie limits through 2012 was one of the first key steps to support the above."
Yep, there is something to be noted in this parade of clowns trying to lose the hickey from the home mortgage scams. The only bad part of it is that that money has long ago been spent and hidden and there is literally nothing left to find but a piece of worthless paper and an empty house on Elm Street. If they were really interested in getting folk into private mortgages for real down payments and payable monthly notes then they would just start bleeding off the worthless stuff at public auction and take whatever is left as final settlement. The market would reset in a real world, real dollar/value kind of way and we would get on with our lives. As it is, everyone is still playing hot potato with the full value of the paper for these bogus loans on these houses and it looks like we the people ended up holding the pomme de tierre. Now, when we get to the commercial paper running around and the banks really start to feeling the sting of low gdp and high unemployment, ie the lack of cosumer activity, then we will begin to see the bottom of this circus.
"Ask, and it shall be given you; seek, and ye shall find; knock, and it shall be opened unto you." -Luke 11:9
"Hear, O Israel: The LORD our God is one LORD: And thou shalt love the LORD thy God with all thine heart, and with all thy soul, and with all thy might." -Deut. 6:4-5
"For the LORD is our judge, the LORD is our lawgiver, the LORD is our king; He will save us." -Isaiah 33:22
I agree that's an excellent set of recommendations, in the rarefied world of PM investors.
The thinly-veiled elephant in the room, of course, is the stake in which governments have in manipulating these prices in order to maintain their fiat currencies as long as possible (at least until they're out of office).
Remember this when they complain about getting stiffed on the U.S. debt they own.
"Men who had never shown any ability to make or increase fortunes for themselves abounded in brilliant plans for creating and increasing wealth for the country at large." Fiat Money Inflation in France, Andrew Dickson White (1912)
"Ask, and it shall be given you; seek, and ye shall find; knock, and it shall be opened unto you." -Luke 11:9
"Hear, O Israel: The LORD our God is one LORD: And thou shalt love the LORD thy God with all thine heart, and with all thy soul, and with all thy might." -Deut. 6:4-5
"For the LORD is our judge, the LORD is our lawgiver, the LORD is our king; He will save us." -Isaiah 33:22
Interesting that households and businesses continue to reduce debt, while gov't debt is increasing (at a ridiculous pace in the case of the federal gov't).
Nothing really new, but another poignant reminder by Ted Butler about silver market manipulation. If you're one of the doubting Thomases regarding manipulation and other conspiracies, please disregard. For all others, I hope you're stocking up on silver before the price hits the sky.
.....GOD
"Ask, and it shall be given you; seek, and ye shall find; knock, and it shall be opened unto you." -Luke 11:9
"Hear, O Israel: The LORD our God is one LORD: And thou shalt love the LORD thy God with all thine heart, and with all thy soul, and with all thy might." -Deut. 6:4-5
"For the LORD is our judge, the LORD is our lawgiver, the LORD is our king; He will save us." -Isaiah 33:22
I agree that's an excellent set of recommendations, in the rarefied world of PM investors.
The thinly-veiled elephant in the room, of course, is the stake in which governments have in manipulating these prices in order to maintain their fiat currencies as long as possible (at least until they're out of office). >>
Good Letter, but do you really think they'll run with it? Nope
VALLEJO, CALIF., HAD NO CHOICE but to file a Chapter 9 bankruptcy in 2008 after property-tax revenue collapsed in the housing bust and a major employer -- the U.S. government's Mare Island Ship- yard -- closed. With the tax base hammered, rich public-employee contracts granted in better times were devouring more than 90% of the city's budget.
Though Vallejo is still months away from getting a court decision on whether it can go ahead with its debt-adjustment plan, it has succeeded through contract renegotiations and major layoffs in cutting its employee costs by nearly a quarter.
But the fallout has been brutal. Employee health-care benefits have been decimated. Holders of the city's municipal bonds are unlikely to get all their money back. And violent crime rates have shot up dramatically as a result of reductions in its police force from 158 to 104 officers.
The only thing that will be left untouched? The very thing that tipped the California city into Chapter 9 -- its $84 billion in future pension obligations
Interesting that households and businesses continue to reduce debt, while gov't debt is increasing (at a ridiculous pace in the case of the federal gov't). >>
But isn't the biggest reason for reduced debt the result people/businesses defaulting on their loans? I'm guessing that is the biggest reason. Debt being wiped out via default. MJ
Walker Proof Digital Album Fellas, leave the tight pants to the ladies. If I can count the coins in your pockets you better use them to call a tailor. Stay thirsty my friends......
Interesting that households and businesses continue to reduce debt, while gov't debt is increasing (at a ridiculous pace in the case of the federal gov't). >>
But isn't the biggest reason for reduced debt the result people/businesses defaulting on their loans? I'm guessing that is the biggest reason. Debt being wiped out via default. MJ >>
<< <i>But isn't the biggest reason for reduced debt the result people/businesses defaulting on their loans? I'm guessing that is the biggest reason. Debt being wiped out via default. MJ >>
Forgiven debt outside of bankruptcy is taxable income.
On the bright side, I'm sure the pols will spin it as incomes skyrocket while debt falls.
<< <i>But isn't the biggest reason for reduced debt the result people/businesses defaulting on their loans? I'm guessing that is the biggest reason. Debt being wiped out via default. MJ >>
<Forgiven debt outside of bankruptcy is taxable income>
Exactly and debt wiped out via bankruptcy or forgiven is debt reduced. All the better for spinmeisters if it falls into the income column.
Geez, I didn't have to go far to find this. An excerpt from Barron's online---- MJ
Meanwhile, owners' equity in household real estate saw a higher absolute and percentage increase, to $6.313 trillion from $6.222 trillion, a 5.9% annual rate of gain. That was aided by a continued decline in households' mortgage liabilities in the fourth quarter, to $10.262 trillion from $10.315 trillion.
The reduction in mortgage debt was not so much the result of homeowners' newfound probity in paying off their loans as walking away from them.
The rising tide of foreclosures, bankruptcies and so-called "strategic defaults," where homeowners just stop paying mortgages on homes worth less than their associated liability, have become a well-recognized phenomenon in the three months since it was discussed here following the previous Fed Flow of Funds report.
Indeed, instead of a mortgage being the last loan anybody would default upon, now it's the first. Stop paying your car loan and the repo man comes and you can't get to work. Stop paying your credit card and there may be no way to pay for luxuries such as groceries and medical bills. Stop paying your mortgage and maybe months later the bank will actually act. They've got such a backlog of bad loans that they've got their hands full.
So, that's how American families are getting ahead -- by falling behind on their house payments. Not exactly the path to prosperity.
In any case, U.S. households' total net worth still was down 16% from the end of 2007 and 21% from the absolute peak the following year.
and
In all, the latest Fed Flow of Funds data suggest that, to the extent middle class Americans' finances are improving, it's because their liabilities are being reduced by default. The gains in asset values are being concentrated by those so-called households with the ways and means to own equities.
Walker Proof Digital Album Fellas, leave the tight pants to the ladies. If I can count the coins in your pockets you better use them to call a tailor. Stay thirsty my friends......
To follow on your train of thought, MJ, a recent story from Market@watch.com.......
Credit-card debt has been falling for 16 straight months....... U.S. banks charged off a record $83.3 billion in credit-card losses last year. That makes up the bulk of the $93.2 billion drop in outstanding credit-card debt that was reported by the Federal Reserve for 2009
The only thing that will be left untouched? The very thing that tipped the California city into Chapter 9 -- its $84 billion in future pension obligations
They say they can't touch the pensions for government workers because of contractual obligations. I don't know how they can uphold these contracts if there is no money to pay out. This town is the canary in the coal mine, but its happening nationwide.
<< <i>Another timely and brilliant piece by Christopher Story.
>>
WOW, Christopher Story story is almost unbelievable. I tired to find more on the "Queen's Gold". No luck. Anyone have a link to such? Also, what tax payer money was stolen on December 31st AND where did it go?
<< <i>Another timely and brilliant piece by Christopher Story.
>>
WOW, Christopher Story story is almost unbelievable. I tired to find more on the "Queen's Gold". No luck. Anyone have a link to such? Also, what tax payer money was stolen on December 31st AND where did it go? >>
You should take a month or two off work and read each of his previous articles in the archive; go back 6 months or so and you'll get a pretty good background on what he's talking about because sometimes he repeats, or adds to developments, so eventually you know what he's referencing.
.....GOD
"Ask, and it shall be given you; seek, and ye shall find; knock, and it shall be opened unto you." -Luke 11:9
"Hear, O Israel: The LORD our God is one LORD: And thou shalt love the LORD thy God with all thine heart, and with all thy soul, and with all thy might." -Deut. 6:4-5
"For the LORD is our judge, the LORD is our lawgiver, the LORD is our king; He will save us." -Isaiah 33:22
Comments
<< <i>
<< <i>
<< <i>I want to know with all the "printing" and negative sentiment, why isnt the dollar lower? >>
That's what they are saying... it IS lower in terms of gold and other assets/commodities and real purchasing power. >>
All right, well I give up then. No one knows.
I do believe one can buy a vehicle or house with less dollars than in 2004, even equities. But I digress.
The dollar is lower, but not when compared to a basket of currencies that have dropped even lower.
Coin's for sale/trade.
Tom Pilitowski
US Rare Coin Investments
800-624-1870
<< <i>
<< <i>
<< <i>I want to know with all the "printing" and negative sentiment, why isnt the dollar lower? >>
That's what they are saying... it IS lower in terms of gold and other assets/commodities and real purchasing power. >>
All right, well I give up then. No one knows.
I do believe one can buy a vehicle or house with less dollars than in 2004, even equities. But I digress.
The dollar isn't lower because monetization hasn't reached it's peak. Monetization = devaluation. Banks have paid back most of the tarp money, second round of billions approved for stimulus haven't been dispersed yet, treasuries are still being purchased, etc.
The trouble for the dollar and gold going parabolic may happen in 2011. Why? When "Bush's" tax cuts expire December 31,2010 will the big rise in taxes be enough to limit monetization because of increased revenues? (always thought it strange, people call it Bush's taxcuts..... it's America's tax cuts.) Also will new taxes (health care, pensions etc) bring in enough revenue to limit monetization?
There you have it..... if revenues can
keep monetization under control
DOLLAR WILL STAY FAIRLY STRONG
Give it time. it will eventually reach those low levels you are asking for. I suppose after peaking in 1985 and then dropping to a bottoming zone in 2008 the dollar was due to bounce back again. The fact that it has held it's relative value to a selected group of consumer items from 2004-2010 doesn't necessarily speak to strong fundamentals. As already mentioned one can look throughout the markets and find many items (esp important ones) where the dollar hasn't held up over the past 4-6 years (ie PM's, oil, industrial metals, sugar, coffee, educational costs, various insurances, federal/state/local taxes and fees, health care (esp. non-group plans), professional fees (lawyers, doctors, tradesmen, accountants, brokers, etc), ticket prices to shows/plays/sporting events/etc., used car prices, car washes, Superman 1938 comic #1, etc. The price of some things will continue to escalate while others stagnate or go lower. I would admit that a number of the above items have escalated too much since 2004 and some pullback in prices is to be expected going forward.
The dollar may hold up longer than the Euro and a basket of other world currencies. But it continues to be a race to the bottom. Just because the dollar could get there last isn't cause for celebration or the awarding of a gold medal for fiscal fortitude. The dollar only has 3% of it's 1913 value left to go to hit zero. But as Zeno's paradox shows, that last 3% can be fractioned an infinite number of times.
I mention the used car prices because while new car sales have been floundering, used cars are under intense competition by both new and used car dealers. Quality used car prices are escalating and will probably continue to do so. While finding a new car is child's play, try to find a 4-6 yr old cream puff used car. The same effect could eventually be seen in the prices of inexpensive smaller homes as people try to downsize from McMansions thereby placing a floor under the Mini-me's. Single family rentals? Shouldn't they be going up in price as people move away from home ownership? And since 40% of the CPI measures the effective rental of one's home, shouldn't that cause CPI to rise as well?
A lot of the dollar's strength is tied to the TBond market continuing to hold its own since 2008. Should that not be the case at some time in the future, nothing will be able to keep the dollar propped up. Should the TBond falter, the dollar will fall very quickly. And it's probably only a matter of time before TBonds follow Greecian, Spanish, British and other selected bonds down the drain.
As far as banks "paying back" most of the TARP money that's sort of an illusion. Reggie Middletown did an article a few months back showing all the free bennies the bankers got besides TARP..about a dozen in total. If one added up all the incentives and subtle money that was handed out under the various alphabet soup programs, they have barely scratched the surface in paying back the funds they received, starting with the essentially zero interest-rate funds they have borrowed from the FED's various windows. Claiming to have paid back TARP is just smoke and mirrors.
roadrunner
<< <i>The dollar may hold up longer than the Euro and a basket of other world currencies. But it continues to be a race to the bottom. Just because the dollar could get there last isn't cause for celebration or the awarding of a gold medal for fiscal fortitude. The dollar only has 3% of it's 1913 value left to go to hit zero. But as Zeno's paradox shows, that last 3% can be fractioned an infinite number of times. >>
Also... the USD is up or strong against the pound and euro and yen, but at or near lows vs. the Loonie, Australian dollar, and others.
Coin's for sale/trade.
Tom Pilitowski
US Rare Coin Investments
800-624-1870
The following material has been provided for your entertainment while we adjust our signal. Please enjoy the short presentation and we will return briefly with your regularly scheduled programming.
In case you missed it
Knowledge is the enemy of fear
How the U.S. Ponzi scheme works!
LINK
Got Cash?
<< <i>Got Gold?
How the U.S. Ponzi scheme works!
LINK >>
Linky no worky for me.
"Ask, and it shall be given you; seek, and ye shall find; knock, and it shall be opened unto you." -Luke 11:9
"Hear, O Israel: The LORD our God is one LORD: And thou shalt love the LORD thy God with all thine heart, and with all thy soul, and with all thy might." -Deut. 6:4-5
"For the LORD is our judge, the LORD is our lawgiver, the LORD is our king; He will save us." -Isaiah 33:22
May have to cut and paste this one!
Economists: Another Financial Crisis on the Way
I knew it would happen.
Here is Sinclair's current assessment of the Greece situation. I think the nations understand the risk of allowing the banksters to flush down one currency after another. And therefore bailouts and further bouts of QE seem to be the more likely outcome.
Greece will fail and be rescued is all that is discussed in the financial world. Here is the real skinny:
1. Greece getting bailed out means QE (printing of money) to infinity. That means gold would rise from here to $1650 by January of 2011, or as Martin Armstrong said, by June of 2011. The dollar would fall. Equities and commodities would rise.
2. Greece getting flushed means that would enrich the CDS OTC derivative tool. Immediately the next target currencies will be attacked by this tool. Currencies will fall like dominoes. At first the dollar will strengthen, equities will fall and gold will go lower. However, soon the recognition will come that a disaster has occurred that is more serious than the Lehman flushing. Confidence in currencies will fall everywhere. Gold will then rise not to $1650 by the same time in 2011 but to $5000 and perhaps beyond.
Either way both paved the road to a single virtual reserve currency and a single Central Bank (IMF) of Central Banks.
If Greece is bailed out it will take longer for the establishment of the single virtual reserve currency. If Greece is flushed it will happen so fast you will lose your breathe.
Either way I see gold as the only reliable fundamentally correct safe harbor. Gold will play a part at a very high price with the single virtual reserve currency in order to keep gold from being a competitor with it.
Gold's role will be in the form of the Federal Reserve Gold Certificate Ratio, not tied to the dollar, but rather tied to the single virtual reserve currency in a ratio to a measure of world liquidity. There will be no interest rate automaticity to the new form for gold's role in a monetary system. It will follow the many articles I have written on the FRGCR but not tied to the dollar but rather the single virtual reserve currency.
Gold will not be fixed or convertible but will trade within a market as a close band of the price gold is trading at when the single virtual reserve currency is created and will lend to this construct some real validity.
I do not favor any of this, but it will occur.
There is no other possibility to this unprecedented calamity at hand.
roadrunner
roadrunner
<< <i>The previous 4 times that the dollar was around 81 the gold price ranged from $700-$940 (Sept 07 - June 09). This time around it's >$1100.
roadrunner >>
am i the only one other than RR and ProofCollection to have noticed this?
i have been away for sometime, moving my office and all the details, so if i missed a post about this sorry in advance and a redirect would be nice...
The best way to get rid of banks making bets on derivatives is to let the "winners" get stiffed by non-payment, and to let the losers start looking for real jobs. Taxpayers seem to be on the hook in both directions. That's so wrong that it's hard to describe in how many ways it is wrong.
am i the only one other than RR and ProofCollection to have noticed this?
Yes, only the three of you.
It seems to me that this progression isn't going to stop anytime soon, unless lots of things change in a better direction. It could happen, but so far, lot's of talk and not much action in the right direction.
I knew it would happen.
<< <i>
The best way to get rid of banks making bets on derivatives is to let the "winners" get stiffed by non-payment, and to let the losers start looking for real jobs. Taxpayers seem to be on the hook in both directions. That's so wrong that it's hard to describe in how many ways it is wrong.
>>
Don't forget we're also on the hook for tens of thousands in the banking industry getting
enormous bonuses whether they end western civilization or not. We're also on the hook
for earnning .05% on our savings and paying 20% on our debt.
Poor bankers. It's hard fgor them to make ends meet unless they're stealing us blind and
getting taxpayer money.
And The US is broke.
Don't forget we're also on the hook for tens of thousands in the banking industry getting
enormous bonuses whether they end western civilization or not. We're also on the hook
for earnning .05% on our savings and paying 20% on our debt.
Poor bankers. It's hard fgor them to make ends meet unless they're stealing us blind and
getting taxpayer money. >>
Cladking, yes you are right and this made me sick reading this. Wells Fargo CEO pay doubles to $18.7 million
http://www.sfgate.com/cgi-bin/article.cgi?f=/n/a/2010/03/03/financial/f161348S52.DTL
<< <i> >>
Don't forget we're also on the hook for tens of thousands in the banking industry getting
enormous bonuses whether they end western civilization or not. We're also on the hook
for earnning .05% on our savings and paying 20% on our debt.
Poor bankers. It's hard fgor them to make ends meet unless they're stealing us blind and
getting taxpayer money. >>
Cladking, yes you are right and this made me sick reading this. Wells Fargo CEO pay doubles to $18.7 million
Link >>
"Wells Fargo said last month that it will allow shareholders to cast a nonbinding vote on compensation for the bank's top five executives. The vote will come at the bank's annual meeting in April.
Oh, that's just precious. They're going to ALLOW the owners of the company to vote
on whether the person at the helm is overpaid or not. As long as they agree that he
should get 100% of company profits then they'll do what the owners say.
If people (the stockholders) were still sane they'd take back control of this company and
fire the individual who composed this statement and then demand that the company be
rationalized. They's probably fire all or most of the top five executives as well.
Throughout the post-tech Bubble reflationary period, mortgage Credit expansion was viewed as integral to the solution. Mortgage finance was basically off limits from a regulatory standpoint, with this dynamic providing major impetus for historic Credit and speculative excess. Rather than recognizing an unfolding mortgage finance Bubble as a systemic risk, policymakers were content to feed the excess and look the other way. Of course, a speculative marketplace figured this all out and took full advantage. The government's multifaceted (Fed, GSEs, Treasury, etc.) support of mortgage finance fanned speculative excess and directly fueled the Bubble.
These days, the Administration's watered-down "Volcker rule" - which will likely be diluted to water-like reform legislation in Congress - excludes the government debt markets from proprietary trading restrictions. Government finance is today's unfolding Bubble and, not surprisingly, this Bubble is off limits for regulatory reform. Government deficits are integral to the Bubble, and there will be no serious effort to rein them in. The Fed's balance sheet is a serious Bubble issue, but it also remains untouchable. Treasury, GSEs, and Federal Reserve Credit are viewed as the solution, and a historic Bubble is emboldened and builds momentum.
The markets' perception of "too big to fail" has for years been an integral facet of Bubble dynamics. And despite all the talk of trying to rid the marketplace of this notion, the markets remain more persuaded than ever: the unfolding global government finance Bubble is much too gigantic for policymakers to risk letting it come anywhere close to failing. Massive U.S. deficits and near-zero interest rates ensure a steady flow of finance (newly created as well as an ongoing exodus out of low-yielding instruments) to debt markets around the world. Confidence runs high that ultra-loose U.S. financial conditions will continue to underpin Credit expansions globally. Politicians may talk tough, and they do put on a good show. Meanwhile, markets function with reticent aplomb, knowing they've got policymakers right where they want them.
Uncapping the previous Fannie and Freddie limits through 2012 was one of the first key steps to support the above.
Doug Noland weekly summary - full article
roadrunner
Yep, there is something to be noted in this parade of clowns trying to lose the hickey from the home mortgage scams. The only bad part of it is that that money has long ago been spent and hidden and there is literally nothing left to find but a piece of worthless paper and an empty house on Elm Street. If they were really interested in getting folk into private mortgages for real down payments and payable monthly notes then they would just start bleeding off the worthless stuff at public auction and take whatever is left as final settlement. The market would reset in a real world, real dollar/value kind of way and we would get on with our lives. As it is, everyone is still playing hot potato with the full value of the paper for these bogus loans on these houses and it looks like we the people ended up holding the pomme de tierre. Now, when we get to the commercial paper running around and the banks really start to feeling the sting of low gdp and high unemployment, ie the lack of cosumer activity, then we will begin to see the bottom of this circus.
Got Cash?
Knowledge is the enemy of fear
"Ask, and it shall be given you; seek, and ye shall find; knock, and it shall be opened unto you." -Luke 11:9
"Hear, O Israel: The LORD our God is one LORD: And thou shalt love the LORD thy God with all thine heart, and with all thy soul, and with all thy might." -Deut. 6:4-5
"For the LORD is our judge, the LORD is our lawgiver, the LORD is our king; He will save us." -Isaiah 33:22
<< <i>Excellent Open Letter to the CFTC.
I agree that's an excellent set of recommendations, in the rarefied world of PM investors.
The thinly-veiled elephant in the room, of course, is the stake in which governments have in manipulating these prices in order to maintain their fiat currencies as long as possible (at least until they're out of office).
Here's a warning parable for coin collectors...
<< <i>When is a guarantee not a guarantee? When its in China. >>
Remember this when they complain about getting stiffed on the U.S. debt they own.
"Ask, and it shall be given you; seek, and ye shall find; knock, and it shall be opened unto you." -Luke 11:9
"Hear, O Israel: The LORD our God is one LORD: And thou shalt love the LORD thy God with all thine heart, and with all thy soul, and with all thy might." -Deut. 6:4-5
"For the LORD is our judge, the LORD is our lawgiver, the LORD is our king; He will save us." -Isaiah 33:22
We're rich. LOL.
Knowledge is the enemy of fear
<< <i>US Households are worth $54.2 Trillion.
We're rich. LOL. >>
Interesting that households and businesses continue to reduce debt, while gov't debt is increasing (at a ridiculous pace in the case of the federal gov't).
"Ask, and it shall be given you; seek, and ye shall find; knock, and it shall be opened unto you." -Luke 11:9
"Hear, O Israel: The LORD our God is one LORD: And thou shalt love the LORD thy God with all thine heart, and with all thy soul, and with all thy might." -Deut. 6:4-5
"For the LORD is our judge, the LORD is our lawgiver, the LORD is our king; He will save us." -Isaiah 33:22
<< <i>
<< <i>Excellent Open Letter to the CFTC.
I agree that's an excellent set of recommendations, in the rarefied world of PM investors.
The thinly-veiled elephant in the room, of course, is the stake in which governments have in manipulating these prices in order to maintain their fiat currencies as long as possible (at least until they're out of office). >>
I love this stuff.
VALLEJO, CALIF., HAD NO CHOICE but to file a Chapter 9 bankruptcy in 2008 after property-tax revenue collapsed in the housing bust and a major employer -- the U.S. government's Mare Island Ship- yard -- closed. With the tax base hammered, rich public-employee contracts granted in better times were devouring more than 90% of the city's budget.
Though Vallejo is still months away from getting a court decision on whether it can go ahead with its debt-adjustment plan, it has succeeded through contract renegotiations and major layoffs in cutting its employee costs by nearly a quarter.
But the fallout has been brutal. Employee health-care benefits have been decimated. Holders of the city's municipal bonds are unlikely to get all their money back. And violent crime rates have shot up dramatically as a result of reductions in its police force from 158 to 104 officers.
The only thing that will be left untouched? The very thing that tipped the California city into Chapter 9 -- its $84 billion in future pension obligations
Knowledge is the enemy of fear
<< <i>
<< <i>US Households are worth $54.2 Trillion.
We're rich. LOL. >>
Interesting that households and businesses continue to reduce debt, while gov't debt is increasing (at a ridiculous pace in the case of the federal gov't). >>
But isn't the biggest reason for reduced debt the result people/businesses defaulting on their loans? I'm guessing that is the biggest reason. Debt being wiped out via default. MJ
Fellas, leave the tight pants to the ladies. If I can count the coins in your pockets you better use them to call a tailor. Stay thirsty my friends......
<< <i>
<< <i>
<< <i>US Households are worth $54.2 Trillion.
We're rich. LOL. >>
Interesting that households and businesses continue to reduce debt, while gov't debt is increasing (at a ridiculous pace in the case of the federal gov't). >>
But isn't the biggest reason for reduced debt the result people/businesses defaulting on their loans? I'm guessing that is the biggest reason. Debt being wiped out via default. MJ >>
Coin's for sale/trade.
Tom Pilitowski
US Rare Coin Investments
800-624-1870
<< <i>But isn't the biggest reason for reduced debt the result people/businesses defaulting on their loans? I'm guessing that is the biggest reason. Debt being wiped out via default. MJ
>>
Forgiven debt outside of bankruptcy is taxable income.
On the bright side, I'm sure the pols will spin it as incomes skyrocket while debt falls.
<< <i>
<< <i>But isn't the biggest reason for reduced debt the result people/businesses defaulting on their loans? I'm guessing that is the biggest reason. Debt being wiped out via default. MJ
>>
<Forgiven debt outside of bankruptcy is taxable income>
Exactly and debt wiped out via bankruptcy or forgiven is debt reduced. All the better for spinmeisters if it falls into the income column.
Geez, I didn't have to go far to find this. An excerpt from Barron's online---- MJ
Meanwhile, owners' equity in household real estate saw a higher absolute and percentage increase, to $6.313 trillion from $6.222 trillion, a 5.9% annual rate of gain. That was aided by a continued decline in households' mortgage liabilities in the fourth quarter, to $10.262 trillion from $10.315 trillion.
The reduction in mortgage debt was not so much the result of homeowners' newfound probity in paying off their loans as walking away from them.
The rising tide of foreclosures, bankruptcies and so-called "strategic defaults," where homeowners just stop paying mortgages on homes worth less than their associated liability, have become a well-recognized phenomenon in the three months since it was discussed here following the previous Fed Flow of Funds report.
Indeed, instead of a mortgage being the last loan anybody would default upon, now it's the first. Stop paying your car loan and the repo man comes and you can't get to work. Stop paying your credit card and there may be no way to pay for luxuries such as groceries and medical bills. Stop paying your mortgage and maybe months later the bank will actually act. They've got such a backlog of bad loans that they've got their hands full.
So, that's how American families are getting ahead -- by falling behind on their house payments. Not exactly the path to prosperity.
In any case, U.S. households' total net worth still was down 16% from the end of 2007 and 21% from the absolute peak the following year.
and
In all, the latest Fed Flow of Funds data suggest that, to the extent middle class Americans' finances are improving, it's because their liabilities are being reduced by default. The gains in asset values are being concentrated by those so-called households with the ways and means to own equities.
Fellas, leave the tight pants to the ladies. If I can count the coins in your pockets you better use them to call a tailor. Stay thirsty my friends......
Credit-card debt has been falling for 16 straight months....... U.S. banks charged off a record $83.3 billion in credit-card losses last year. That makes up the bulk of the $93.2 billion drop in outstanding credit-card debt that was reported by the Federal Reserve for 2009
Knowledge is the enemy of fear
They say they can't touch the pensions for government workers because of contractual obligations. I don't know how they can uphold these contracts if there is no money to pay out. This town is the canary in the coal mine, but its happening nationwide.
Box of 20
<< <i>They say they can't touch the pensions for government workers because of contractual obligations. >>
That didn't stop the screwing-over of the GM and Chysler bond holders, did it? I know they can do it if they try.
<< <i>Another timely and brilliant piece by Christopher Story.
WOW, Christopher Story story is almost unbelievable. I tired to find more on the "Queen's Gold". No luck. Anyone have a link to such? Also, what tax payer money was stolen on December 31st AND where did it go?
<< <i>
<< <i>Another timely and brilliant piece by Christopher Story.
WOW, Christopher Story story is almost unbelievable. I tired to find more on the "Queen's Gold". No luck. Anyone have a link to such? Also, what tax payer money was stolen on December 31st AND where did it go? >>
You should take a month or two off work and read each of his previous articles in the archive; go back 6 months or so and you'll get a pretty good background on what he's talking about because sometimes he repeats, or adds to developments, so eventually you know what he's referencing.
"Ask, and it shall be given you; seek, and ye shall find; knock, and it shall be opened unto you." -Luke 11:9
"Hear, O Israel: The LORD our God is one LORD: And thou shalt love the LORD thy God with all thine heart, and with all thy soul, and with all thy might." -Deut. 6:4-5
"For the LORD is our judge, the LORD is our lawgiver, the LORD is our king; He will save us." -Isaiah 33:22
Seriously, I'll check out the archive.