Where are the PM bears??

Norseman88

I thought that Gold and Silver were supposed to go way down in price, at least that's what the perma bears on here were saying not to long ago. Gold was supposed to go below $800 possibly $700 and Silver was supposed to go below $10 possibly below $8 and languish there indefinitely.

gecko109

<< <i> I thought that Gold and Silver were supposed to go way down in price, at least that's what the perma bears on here were saying not to long ago. Gold was supposed to go below $800 possibly $700 and Silver was supposed to go below $10 possibly below $8 and languish there indefinitely. >>




I wish! If gold/silver keep going up....what am I gonna do with all this fancy green toilet paper?

roadrunner

Nothing new around here. It's been that way since 2004 when the perma-PM bears (aka fiat bugs) were predicting that $500 would never be reached. But we will continue to re-live this drama every new $100 that gold moves up. Lots of ground still left to cover. That's not to say that another major deleveraging event could not take place and stampede people back into dollars. But I don't think gold will react quite as badly as it did last time around.

But over time it seems even the most fervent of fiat bugs are slowly beginning to realize there is something more to PM's than just a fad. I have little doubt that 2009 will be the 9th year in a row that gold closes on Dec. 31st on a higher note that the previous year.

Pharmer, Dollardude, 2nd Republic and company, where have you gone?

roadrunner

Norseman88

Of course even though I'm bullish on Gold and Silver I realize that there will be bumps in the road and at some point in the future PM's could suffer a huge selloff but at this point in time I think it's safe to say the trend is your friend.

Norseman88

<< <i>

<< <i> I thought that Gold and Silver were supposed to go way down in price, at least that's what the perma bears on here were saying not to long ago. Gold was supposed to go below $800 possibly $700 and Silver was supposed to go below $10 possibly below $8 and languish there indefinitely. >>




I wish! If gold/silver keep going up....what am I gonna do with all this fancy green toilet paper? >>



I'll gladly accept it from you and invest it into Gold, Silver or the Platinum group metals, possibly even some mining stocks.

jmski52

Where are the PM bears??

Jim Cramer is the only one talking about how good for the country it is that the dollar is tanking, and how great the bank stocks are doing.

The PM bears around here? I dunno, Norseman. I dunno. Waiting for that historic breakout to declare an up move, I guess.

fc

i will admit i did not expect this current bump up but i do not call myself
a bear when it comes to PMs. I just think silver at 10 is quite right and
gold at 800 seems reasonable.

I did not run away though! i am here to take my dose of told ya so.

cars

roadrunner

Don't worry, they are only as far away as the next $50 correction in the gold price where they will again be proclaiming the death of commodities for the nth time. And with them they will have their 30 yr and 50 yr gold charts with them to once again prove what a lousy long term hold gold has been. But when you ask to see the 5 yr or 10 yr charts, those will have been left at home.

Actually everyone here should be patting them on the back at every opportunity possible. Because w/o a majority percentage of perma bears, there is no chance of a rising gold price. Have you hugged a perma-bear today?

roadrunner

ttown

Yes long term charts really don't mean squit on something that was controled until 1974. That with the real assult on fiat money it's was the right time to move into them as early as 1999, seems for a worthless item many goverments around the world seems to be buying the crap out of PM's and history tells us you want to see the next powerhouse follow whos got the gold. Alas the term " those with the gold rules", it's hard to break something that been taught for several thousands years.

Norseman88

Of course with the fed's monetary backing their banking friends are continually adding to their naked short positions so a vicious selloff is possible at any time, however at some point in time this will blow up in their face resulting in a short squeeze of epic proportions.
Of course I suppose it's possible that the Comex could change the rules ala the Hunt brothers and cancel or forgive the naked short positions but still this would remove the shorting pressure from the market and expose the Comex as a fraud which would allow a truly free market in not only Silver but all PM's.

jmski52

Of course with the fed's monetary backing their banking friends are continually adding to their naked short positions so a vicious selloff is possible at any time, however at some point in time this will blow up in their face resulting in a short squeeze of epic proportions.
Of course I suppose it's possible that the Comex could change the rules ala the Hunt brothers and cancel or forgive the naked short positions but still this would remove the shorting pressure from the market and expose the Comex as a fraud which would allow a truly free market in not only Silver but all PM's.

Norseman, it's beyond that point I'm afraid. Most everyone knows what the game is, and those who don't are throwing money away if they think that Comex-driven prices are real. It's too, too risky now to play in anything other than physical metal. Let them short each other's positions all day long. Let them do it. You certainly can't stop them. Just don't play their game and manage what's in your own sphere diligently. They will crash and burn; you won't.

Norseman88

<< <i>Of course with the fed's monetary backing their banking friends are continually adding to their naked short positions so a vicious selloff is possible at any time, however at some point in time this will blow up in their face resulting in a short squeeze of epic proportions.
Of course I suppose it's possible that the Comex could change the rules ala the Hunt brothers and cancel or forgive the naked short positions but still this would remove the shorting pressure from the market and expose the Comex as a fraud which would allow a truly free market in not only Silver but all PM's.

Norseman, it's beyond that point I'm afraid. Most everyone knows what the game is, and those who don't are throwing money away if they think that Comex-driven prices are real. It's too, too risky now to play in anything other than physical metal. Let them short each other's positions all day long. Let them do it. You certainly can't stop them. Just don't play their game and manage what's in your own sphere diligently. They will crash and burn; you won't. >>



This my great hope, to someday see these manipulative den of thieves brought to their knees and get annihilated financially never to be seen again to manipulate supposed free markets.

MoneyLA

Im not bullish.. and Im not bearish either. I simply follow the trends. Gold is stuck in a trading range. If it breaks UP out of the trading range it will go higher. If it breaks DOWN out of the trading range it will go lower. Im not predicting which way, but I have said it here: if it breaks $1,000 (convincingly because we have had rally failures before) I am prepared to buy high and sell higher.

tincup

<< <i>Of course with the fed's monetary backing their banking friends are continually adding to their naked short positions so a vicious selloff is possible at any time, however at some point in time this will blow up in their face resulting in a short squeeze of epic proportions.
Of course I suppose it's possible that the Comex could change the rules ala the Hunt brothers and cancel or forgive the naked short positions but still this would remove the shorting pressure from the market and expose the Comex as a fraud which would allow a truly free market in not only Silver but all PM's.

Norseman, it's beyond that point I'm afraid. Most everyone knows what the game is, and those who don't are throwing money away if they think that Comex-driven prices are real. It's too, too risky now to play in anything other than physical metal. Let them short each other's positions all day long. Let them do it. You certainly can't stop them. Just don't play their game and manage what's in your own sphere diligently. They will crash and burn; you won't. >>




And not only do you not play their game..... use it to your advantage. When they dump the paper shares and drive the price down.... use that opportunity to add to your physical position. Even though many do not like what they do, an advantage is that many of us can continue to add to our holdings at an artificial low price.....

Eventually it will end. Those who plan wisely will profit.

MilesWaits

<< <i>Im not bullish.. and Im not bearish either. I simply follow the trends. Gold is stuck in a trading range. If it breaks UP out of the trading range it will go higher. If it breaks DOWN out of the trading range it will go lower. Im not predicting which way, but I have said it here: if it breaks $1,000 (convincingly because we have had rally failures before) I am prepared to buy high and sell higher. >>



Sounded quite bearish when you boasted of selling at mid to high 900's (around $965 I believe) and waiting for your re-entry point much lower price of around 700?? Are my figures correct or in the vicinity?

Miles

MoneyLA

Yes, I sold gold at about 945 and had a nice profit. I would re-enter the market if gold can break out above 1,000 and stay there because I think that would trigger a new run up. At this point I think gold is stuck in a trading range and I have no interest in being whipsawed in a trading range.

I want to "buy high and sell higher" which is what Stan Weinstein's philosophy for technical analysis is. I will give others the early profits -- because they will have the risk. I want to buy when the risk of a downturn is behind and there is the most potential for the upside.

jmski52

I want to buy when the risk of a downturn is behind and there is the most potential for the upside.

All you are describing is a momentum play, LA. Risk has to do with statistical variability and standard deviations from the norm, and not nearly as much to do with price levels on a trendline.

Actually, when the price is stuck in a trading range, the variability is less and the risk is also less.

A volatile market has inherently more risk, and once the price of gold breaks $1,000.00, the variability has increased - along with the risk. So, your assumption of less risk in a rising market is a misconception on your part. Stan Weinstein may have been a good trader and a good technical analyst, but playing momentum bets isn't a reduction of risk - it's actually an increasing of the risk.

The market usually does maintain a direction for awhile, once it's established (the trend is your friend), but gains aren't forthcoming without risk either. For you to imply that you can buy in with a lower level of risk once the price is running - seems to me to be a complete fallacy and is only providing you a false sense of security when the opposite is true. Just sayin'.

roadrunner

If one gets back in at say $1050 with gold showing momentum, at what point do you get out? It could very easily turn by $1100 and fall back to $1000. Or it could run to $1200 and fall back to $1050. It could run all the way to $1300 and then fall back to $950 for the rest of the year and maintain a lower trading range. I too don't see how a trade like this reduces risk unless one plans to stand fast all the way to $1500+ and is planning on hanging in for a year or two.

roadrunner

MoneyLA

thanks for the reactions, guys.

jmski52 -- I'm afraid that we are talking about different things. I am following the trading philosophy of Stan Weinstein, not the math and statistics, etc that you are talking about.

Weinstein simply wants to buy investments that have made "new highs" because overhead resistance no longer exists. No overhead resistance means "no selling pressure" and "no one wanting to sell just to break even." Those forces are very powerful in markets. His goal is to "buy high and sell higher." It's that simple.

Roadrunner: when you buy an investment that has made new highs you set a stop loss. depending on your own situation the stop loss can be 5% or 10% or 1%. It depends on how much money you have invested and what your tolerance is.

Frankly, I think that once makes it past overhead resistance it will have a nice run. Why do I say that? Because twice (and maybe soon for a third time) gold will have peaked at around 1,000. If it can break through the 1,000 barrier (and maybe this time it will) I think the run will be real. So again, let's see it break 1,000 with conviction -- and then set your stop loss just in case.

wayneme

moneyla
how will you play the market ? if it goes over 1000
etf ! buying it out right or comex or mining stocks
just wondering ?

roadrunner

Frankly, I think that once makes it past overhead resistance it will have a nice run. Why do I say that? Because twice (and maybe soon for a third time) gold will have peaked at around 1,000. If it can break through the 1,000 barrier (and maybe this time it will) I think the run will be real. So again, let's see it break 1,000 with conviction -- and then set your stop loss just in case.

And on the first decent correction there will be surfing for stop losses....set by traders to protect a 5 - 10% profit. That trader will be taken out. If you set a stop loss, you are basically a trader. So when do you get back in? The next day? The next week? The end of the correction? Seems to me that most in this mode with a strong up move will get taken out earlier than they think. Sounds good in theory, but lots of good traders get taken out just when they think they had enough cushion...only to ride the bench for while. The volatility to come will only be greater. Maybe one should plan to set a stop loss $100 below the market. And in that case, you are effectively running w/o a stop.

roadrunner

MoneyLA

wayne. I beleive that if you want gold you should buy gold bullion, not paper gold. gold is bought for safety, and there is no safety in paper. if you want safety in paper stay in govt insured bank accounts because there is nothing safer.

you buy gold because you fear the worst, hence you want to own the physical metal.

numismatic gold has too many variables so I avoid numismatic gold. I also avoid mining stocks because there are also too many variables here such as labor disputes, cave ins, interest costs for mining operations, taxes... every variable that GM has a mining company also has.

now to my friend roadrunner, who wrote: "And on the first decent correction there will be surfing for stop losses....set by traders to protect a 5 - 10% profit. That trader will be taken out. If you set a stop loss, you are basically a trader. So when do you get back in? The next day? The next week? The end of the correction? Seems to me that most in this mode with a strong up move will get taken out earlier than they think. Sounds good in theory, but lots of good traders get taken out just when they think they had enough cushion...only to ride the bench for while. The volatility to come will only be greater. Maybe one should plan to set a stop loss $100 below the market. And in that case, you are effectively running w/o a stop. "

Roadrunner, I can't argue with you as you make valid points. But consider this: a $100 loss below the market, with gold at say $1050 is a loss of LESS than 10% and that sounds like a fair stop loss for me.

Regarding selling and buying into the market again: you are not "married" to any investment and you should be able to sell it and buy it again. I sold gold at 945, and for several months now Ive been out of the market. But I am willing to buy again if gold can break thru 1,000 with conviction. Let gold break out and I will be back into the market... because Im not married to the cash either.

jmski52

I'm afraid that we are talking about different things. I am following the trading philosophy of Stan Weinstein, not the math and statistics, etc that you are talking about.

LA, that's the point. You're talking about a trading technique using stop loss orders, but your usage of the term "risk" is incorrect and is likely to work against you.

Weinstein simply wants to buy investments that have made "new highs" because overhead resistance no longer exists. No overhead resistance means "no selling pressure" and "no one wanting to sell just to break even." Those forces are very powerful in markets.

The only overhead resistance to worry about is the US Government, JP Morgan and Goldman Sachs. They aren't worried about breaking even, tho.

His goal is to "buy high and sell higher." It's that simple.

As I said, it's a momentum trade, nothing more or less.

OPA

PM Bears may be waking up soon.

roadrunner

I think they only have at best a few weeks to spout of $400-$600 gold again. They had better start soon or might have to skip the rest of the 2009 "season."

roadrunner

MoneyLA

there are a lot of people who are NOT bearish about precious metals. Its just that they see no reason to buy it now. And there isn't a reason... because it's not showing that it's going up.

Norseman88

I can accept the fact that when PM's go down like they have recently the bears will come out of hibernation.
Of course I'm not happy as I'd like to get the price of Silver, Gold and PGM's to what I think is a fair price but in this case I really think it's going to pay off or at the very least protect my purchasing power.
I do fear that a big portion of the population ( mostly the elderly ) will suffer horrific loss of purchasing power as they have a sizeable percentage of their net worth in cd's, money market accounts, treasury bonds and municiple bonds.
Of course if somehow all the money being printed for all the social engineering and company bailouts magically disappears after doing it's job then I suppose the same could be said about the wacky Gold and Silver bugs being wiped out as the price of their holdings collapses.

Konahead

OK mister doom and gloom, what do you suggest as a way to avoid the coming storm? I would love to hear your positive solutions.

Norseman88

<< <i>OK mister doom and gloom, what do you suggest as a way to avoid the coming storm? I would love to hear your positive solutions. >>



I don't think there is a logical way to avoid the coming storm when looking at the mountains of debt not only in this country but worldwide.
I guess in your mind anyone taking a realistic approach to what's happening around them is an unrealistic doom and gloom moron type, sort of a chicken little.
It doesn't matter what I think should be done as I'm not a politician therefore what I think doesn't matter to the powers that be, what matters is I've positioned my family to be prepared for the coming storm as best we can with as little debt as possible.
May I ask what your solution to this imaginary problem is??

cohodk

If you think there is going to be rampant inflation, then why are you intent on paying off all your debt?

Norseman88

<< <i>If you think there is going to be rampant inflation, then why are you intent on paying off all your debt? >>



Because those with a huge amount of debt will get eaten alive by interest and I don't believe in walking away from your debt or filing bankruptcy.
Back in the late 70's through the early 80's people in my part of the country were forced out of farming because of their own stupidity, they were given an open checkbook to expand their operations because the banks along with farm credit service urged them to do this. Their reasoning was that rampant inflation would destroy the purchasing power of the dollar so better off buying high priced farmland and equipment (things with tangible value) and grow more crops which would also rise in value as the dollar devalued. Of course the cycle played out, interest rates skyrocketed when Paul Volker went on a war against inflation and commodities came crashing back down to earth.
With the price of commodities including grain in the toilet and interest on their loans sky high many framers were forced to quit as they simply couldn't generate enough income to pay their loans. This is very similiar to what has occured in the housing market except home owners interest rates didn't jump up to 18% which happened to most farmers, so there you have my answer as to why I want to pay off most of my debt.
Now I would agree that in a hyperinflationary environment it would be smart to have a bunch of debt and buy things of tangible value but only if you could get a fixed rate loan not the ARM's that brought so many homeowners down and only if you could buy the things you deem necessary at a good price.

Norseman88

By the way I don't necessarily think the U.S. is going to get hit with Weimer republic type inflation. I think it will be similiar to the 70's and have a blowoff where things get crazy for awhile but come crashing back down to earth as the powers that be come to some sort of solution. Like I said everything cycles and history repeats itself. I sincerely hope that everyone here has a stash of things with tangible value, who knows maybe I'm full of crap and everything will just keep humming along and I hope it does but if not I think I'm gonna be fine.

Konahead

<< <i>

<< <i>OK mister doom and gloom, what do you suggest as a way to avoid the coming storm? I would love to hear your positive solutions. >>



I don't think there is a logical way to avoid the coming storm when looking at the mountains of debt not only in this country but worldwide.
I guess in your mind anyone taking a realistic approach to what's happening around them is an unrealistic doom and gloom moron type, sort of a chicken little.
It doesn't matter what I think should be done as I'm not a politician therefore what I think doesn't matter to the powers that be, what matters is I've positioned my family to be prepared for the coming storm as best we can with as little debt as possible.
May I ask what your solution to this imaginary problem is?? >>

Konahead

<< <i>

<< <i>OK mister doom and gloom, what do you suggest as a way to avoid the coming storm? I would love to hear your positive solutions. >>



I don't think there is a logical way to avoid the coming storm when looking at the mountains of debt not only in this country but worldwide.
I guess in your mind anyone taking a realistic approach to what's happening around them is an unrealistic doom and gloom moron type, sort of a chicken little.
It doesn't matter what I think should be done as I'm not a politician therefore what I think doesn't matter to the powers that be, what matters is I've positioned my family to be prepared for the coming storm as best we can with as little debt as possible.
May I ask what your solution to this imaginary problem is?? >>




Maybe you mis-understood the question! lets try again. First I don't in any way think this is imaginary, in fact it is very real and will get worse way before it gets better. Current activity is putting us in the crapper. If you don't belive in CD's, Mutuals, gold/Silver, stocks than what do you suggest the mattress. I am with you on the debt issue and have already fixed the problem in my family, we have none but a small mortgage with 4.5 % fixed rate. The rest is gone as I agree inflation will flaten alot of people in the coming years. I want to know where you want to put your savings for the next 10 years?

ebaytrader

<< <i>

<< <i>

<< <i>OK mister doom and gloom, what do you suggest as a way to avoid the coming storm? I would love to hear your positive solutions. >>



I don't think there is a logical way to avoid the coming storm when looking at the mountains of debt not only in this country but worldwide.
I guess in your mind anyone taking a realistic approach to what's happening around them is an unrealistic doom and gloom moron type, sort of a chicken little.
It doesn't matter what I think should be done as I'm not a politician therefore what I think doesn't matter to the powers that be, what matters is I've positioned my family to be prepared for the coming storm as best we can with as little debt as possible.
May I ask what your solution to this imaginary problem is?? >>




Maybe you mis-understood the question! lets try again. First I don't in any way think this is imaginary, in fact it is very real and will get worse way before it gets better. Current activity is putting us in the crapper. If you don't belive in CD's, Mutuals, gold/Silver, stocks than what do you suggest the mattress. I am with you on the debt issue and have already fixed the problem in my family, we have none but a small mortgage with 4.5 % fixed rate. The rest is gone as I agree inflation will flaten alot of people in the coming years. I want to know where you want to put your savings for the next 10 years? >>



Big Ben claims he can keep inflation under control.
The Japanese have been running huge deficits relative to their GDP for nearly 20 years without inflation pushing past 3%.
If they can do it, why can't we?

Discuss.

Konahead

<< <i>

<< <i>

<< <i>

<< <i>OK mister doom and gloom, what do you suggest as a way to avoid the coming storm? I would love to hear your positive solutions. >>



I don't think there is a logical way to avoid the coming storm when looking at the mountains of debt not only in this country but worldwide.
I guess in your mind anyone taking a realistic approach to what's happening around them is an unrealistic doom and gloom moron type, sort of a chicken little.
It doesn't matter what I think should be done as I'm not a politician therefore what I think doesn't matter to the powers that be, what matters is I've positioned my family to be prepared for the coming storm as best we can with as little debt as possible.
May I ask what your solution to this imaginary problem is?? >>




Maybe you mis-understood the question! lets try again. First I don't in any way think this is imaginary, in fact it is very real and will get worse way before it gets better. Current activity is putting us in the crapper. If you don't belive in CD's, Mutuals, gold/Silver, stocks than what do you suggest the mattress. I am with you on the debt issue and have already fixed the problem in my family, we have none but a small mortgage with 4.5 % fixed rate. The rest is gone as I agree inflation will flaten alot of people in the coming years. I want to know where you want to put your savings for the next 10 years? >>



Big Ben claims he can keep inflation under control.
The Japanese have been running huge deficits relative to their GDP for nearly 20 years without inflation pushing past 3%.
If they can do it, why can't we?

Discuss. >>



There is little to discuss and I hope for all are sakes "BIG BEN" is correct. I just don't believe it and so far everything they are doing has had little to no effect. Take a trip to detroit if you want to see the fall out. Every thing they are doing is having a major ripple effect across this country. I don't see it getting better in the near future and I don't put my trust in "Big Ben". IMHO

cohodk

interest on their loans sky high

Aint no sky high debt out there right now, unless you carry a balance on a credit card. Mortgages, home equity loans, car loans, ect are dirt cheap, unless we become like Japan.

I fear those who think this is just like the 70's are in for a very rude awakening. And I am not talking about inflation.

roadrunner

The Japanese never inflated the money supply as the US has done over the past year. Just because a lot of that loaned bank money is now sitting in Federal Reserve accounts earning slightly >0% interest doesn't mean it's going to stay there indefinitely. It will stay there until the FED decides it's time to push the banks away to start the lending process anew (lower interbank rates to negative).

The Japanese (from 1989-2007) didn't have to worry about hundreds of Trillions of dollars in derivatives either. Even more dollars/bonds will be created to cover those debts. It is like the 70's... but only a lot worse....much more paper asset deflation (stag) and lots more tangible asset inflation (flation) to come. The 1930's FED made the mistake of contracting the money supply by >30% before finally reversing course in 1933. That isn't going to happen this time. And the "loose" gold to dollar link in the early 1930's was enough to keep from getting money into the economy. There is no such restriction today. The banks win with inflation. The FED and Treasury will ensure that no other course could possibly occur. And one feather in their cap right now are bogus stats such as the CPI which "proves" to the public that we have "deflation," hence they can continue to create money into existence under that cover.

roadrunner

cohodk

The first round of derivative implosion has resulted in deflation. Is it not possible that the next round will also result in trillions of dollars being sucked into never neverland?


The money sitting on the sidelines will go right to Treasuries when yields are high enough. We could fund all of our debt needs domestically. Americans could become the holders of US debt. Then maybe when J6P has some skin in the game, he will press for the reforms needed.

Norseman88

<< <i>

<< <i>

<< <i>OK mister doom and gloom, what do you suggest as a way to avoid the coming storm? I would love to hear your positive solutions. >>



I don't think there is a logical way to avoid the coming storm when looking at the mountains of debt not only in this country but worldwide.
I guess in your mind anyone taking a realistic approach to what's happening around them is an unrealistic doom and gloom moron type, sort of a chicken little.
It doesn't matter what I think should be done as I'm not a politician therefore what I think doesn't matter to the powers that be, what matters is I've positioned my family to be prepared for the coming storm as best we can with as little debt as possible.
May I ask what your solution to this imaginary problem is?? >>




Maybe you mis-understood the question! lets try again. First I don't in any way think this is imaginary, in fact it is very real and will get worse way before it gets better. Current activity is putting us in the crapper. If you don't belive in CD's, Mutuals, gold/Silver, stocks than what do you suggest the mattress. I am with you on the debt issue and have already fixed the problem in my family, we have none but a small mortgage with 4.5 % fixed rate. The rest is gone as I agree inflation will flaten alot of people in the coming years. I want to know where you want to put your savings for the next 10 years? >>



I currently own 400 acres of productive farmland in the Red River valley along with a bunch of expensive eqipment, I have nearly 13,000 ounces of Silver bullion, I have 205 ounces of Palladium along with several ounces of Gold and Platinum, I have a coin collection consisting of mostly branch mint Gold coins.
I've got roughly 9 months income in cd's and money market accounts, I know it's stupid as the interest is terrible but it's our emergency stash in case something unexpected happens.
We have retirement accounts with investments in dividend paying stocks, energy trusts, mlp's, gold stocks and mutual funds although now after the recent bounce we are roughly 40% in cash with the possibility of selling more if it looks like the stock market is going to reverse trend.
I do not think that Gold and Silver have been good investments in the past 100 years but I do think they have been very good investments in the past 8 years and at this point in time I feel they will be even better for the next few years possibly even the next decade, after that I'm not sure. One thing I do know is when the price of metals hit's what I think is a fair price I will sell most of my holdings and look for somewhere else to invest my money, I'm pretty sure I will not sell anywhere near the top but that's OK as long as I sell in steps at fair prices.
I sincerely hope that most people here are prepared for what's coming and have a decent amount of precious metals, a good job, some retirement savings and the faith that we as a nation will survive this. Who knows maybe things will be better in the future than they were in the past, all we can do is try to be prepared and hope for the best.

KentuckyJ

Norseman88,
Excellent planning. Sounds like you are set up nicely. Do you also have a decent currency stash, in case it becomes impossible to access your bank accounts? Any natural disaster of a high magnitude could easily wipe out the electronic grid banks and ATM's depend upon.

MoneyLA

I can't believe anyone would publicly state their personal holdings on a web site such as this... unless of course they are fibbing.

Folks, you can be traced through web sites.

goingbroke

I am sure somebody like that keeps his wealth in a bank fully insured no one keeps lots of money in their home or PMs in the desk drawer. But I agree that posting too much info online shouldn't be done lightly!

Konahead

<< <i>

<< <i>

<< <i>

<< <i>OK mister doom and gloom, what do you suggest as a way to avoid the coming storm? I would love to hear your positive solutions. >>



I don't think there is a logical way to avoid the coming storm when looking at the mountains of debt not only in this country but worldwide.
I guess in your mind anyone taking a realistic approach to what's happening around them is an unrealistic doom and gloom moron type, sort of a chicken little.
It doesn't matter what I think should be done as I'm not a politician therefore what I think doesn't matter to the powers that be, what matters is I've positioned my family to be prepared for the coming storm as best we can with as little debt as possible.
May I ask what your solution to this imaginary problem is?? >>




Maybe you mis-understood the question! lets try again. First I don't in any way think this is imaginary, in fact it is very real and will get worse way before it gets better. Current activity is putting us in the crapper. If you don't belive in CD's, Mutuals, gold/Silver, stocks than what do you suggest the mattress. I am with you on the debt issue and have already fixed the problem in my family, we have none but a small mortgage with 4.5 % fixed rate. The rest is gone as I agree inflation will flaten alot of people in the coming years. I want to know where you want to put your savings for the next 10 years? >>



I currently own 400 acres of productive farmland in the Red River valley along with a bunch of expensive eqipment, I have nearly 13,000 ounces of Silver bullion, I have 205 ounces of Palladium along with several ounces of Gold and Platinum, I have a coin collection consisting of mostly branch mint Gold coins.
I've got roughly 9 months income in cd's and money market accounts, I know it's stupid as the interest is terrible but it's our emergency stash in case something unexpected happens.
We have retirement accounts with investments in dividend paying stocks, energy trusts, mlp's, gold stocks and mutual funds although now after the recent bounce we are roughly 40% in cash with the possibility of selling more if it looks like the stock market is going to reverse trend.
I do not think that Gold and Silver have been good investments in the past 100 years but I do think they have been very good investments in the past 8 years and at this point in time I feel they will be even better for the next few years possibly even the next decade, after that I'm not sure. One thing I do know is when the price of metals hit's what I think is a fair price I will sell most of my holdings and look for somewhere else to invest my money, I'm pretty sure I will not sell anywhere near the top but that's OK as long as I sell in steps at fair prices.
I sincerely hope that most people here are prepared for what's coming and have a decent amount of precious metals, a good job, some retirement savings and the faith that we as a nation will survive this. Who knows maybe things will be better in the future than they were in the past, all we can do is try to be prepared and hope for the best. >>



We find ourselves in agreement and looks like you have done a great job putting it away. I am in a similar situation but watch neverously as not to be too late in moving assets when the time is required. I was fortunate enough during this last round to have a large amount of cash in CD's waiting to move it (dumb luck) and didn't take a bath with the stock market tank. At our age we can't afford a mis-step. We live in interesting times!

Norseman88

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<< <i>OK mister doom and gloom, what do you suggest as a way to avoid the coming storm? I would love to hear your positive solutions. >>



I don't think there is a logical way to avoid the coming storm when looking at the mountains of debt not only in this country but worldwide.
I guess in your mind anyone taking a realistic approach to what's happening around them is an unrealistic doom and gloom moron type, sort of a chicken little.
It doesn't matter what I think should be done as I'm not a politician therefore what I think doesn't matter to the powers that be, what matters is I've positioned my family to be prepared for the coming storm as best we can with as little debt as possible.
May I ask what your solution to this imaginary problem is?? >>




Maybe you mis-understood the question! lets try again. First I don't in any way think this is imaginary, in fact it is very real and will get worse way before it gets better. Current activity is putting us in the crapper. If you don't belive in CD's, Mutuals, gold/Silver, stocks than what do you suggest the mattress. I am with you on the debt issue and have already fixed the problem in my family, we have none but a small mortgage with 4.5 % fixed rate. The rest is gone as I agree inflation will flaten alot of people in the coming years. I want to know where you want to put your savings for the next 10 years? >>



I currently own 400 acres of productive farmland in the Red River valley along with a bunch of expensive eqipment, I have nearly 13,000 ounces of Silver bullion, I have 205 ounces of Palladium along with several ounces of Gold and Platinum, I have a coin collection consisting of mostly branch mint Gold coins.
I've got roughly 9 months income in cd's and money market accounts, I know it's stupid as the interest is terrible but it's our emergency stash in case something unexpected happens.
We have retirement accounts with investments in dividend paying stocks, energy trusts, mlp's, gold stocks and mutual funds although now after the recent bounce we are roughly 40% in cash with the possibility of selling more if it looks like the stock market is going to reverse trend.
I do not think that Gold and Silver have been good investments in the past 100 years but I do think they have been very good investments in the past 8 years and at this point in time I feel they will be even better for the next few years possibly even the next decade, after that I'm not sure. One thing I do know is when the price of metals hit's what I think is a fair price I will sell most of my holdings and look for somewhere else to invest my money, I'm pretty sure I will not sell anywhere near the top but that's OK as long as I sell in steps at fair prices.
I sincerely hope that most people here are prepared for what's coming and have a decent amount of precious metals, a good job, some retirement savings and the faith that we as a nation will survive this. Who knows maybe things will be better in the future than they were in the past, all we can do is try to be prepared and hope for the best. >>



We find ourselves in agreement and looks like you have done a great job putting it away. I am in a similar situation but watch neverously as not to be too late in moving assets when the time is required. I was fortunate enough during this last round to have a large amount of cash in CD's waiting to move it (dumb luck) and didn't take a bath with the stock market tank. At our age we can't afford a mis-step. We live in interesting times! >>



You did better than me, unfortunately I rode the market down as I had only 20% in cash. I foolishly thought that some of my dividend darlings would keep chugging along as they would have their oil and natural gas hedged when the prices were high, well it looks like the fools that run these companies either couldn't decide that oil above $120 and gas above $10 was enogh for their companies to make a profit or they are totally clueless when it comes to running a company. Our accounts did recover quite a bit from the lows and I've been selling while the market rises however now I've got to decide if this market is rolling over or just taking a breather.
As for my holdings in metals our government wouldn't take away our stash would they??
And no I'm not stupid enough to keep the bulk of my holdings at home.

platguy

Damn dude, you sure know how to jinx some sh*t.

Norseman88

<< <i>Damn dude, you sure know how to jinx some sh*t. >>



I guess I must have supernatural powers.

FistFullOfDollars

Norseman88, I am curious to know what you feel fair market value is for Silver, Gold, Palladium & Platinum. Is it 2x, 3x, 4x or more of current market value.

Norseman88

<< <i>Norseman88, I am curious to know what you feel fair market value is for Silver, Gold, Palladium & Platinum. Is it 2x, 3x, 4x or more of current market value. >>



Here are my thoughts on the matter which I know will leave me open to ridicule but I don't care.

I think that at some point in the future Palladium will be priced higher than Platinum. Of course this will depend on the development of future technologies such as fuel cells for vehicles and possibly homes and even more intriguing the possibility of cold fusion. Before people scoff at any of this we can all agree that at some point in the future we will need to find alternative energy sources to go along with wind, solar and biofuels. So to answer the PGM question I think Palladium will at least take out its all time high of $1,100 set in 2001, adjusted for inflation I think it would be safe to say that a few years down the road using the cpi stat's since 2001 you could possibly see both Palladium and Platinum trading above $2,000 an oz. (where I might add Platinum has already resided) possibly more if Gold runs.

Gold is the traditional metal as a hedge against inflation it has also performed better than any other precious metal except when Platinum went on it's historic run a year ago, Silver went on it's historic run to over $50 an oz. and Palladium had it's run in 2001. Of course none of the other precious metals had staying power while Gold tends to be more stable relatively speaking in terms of percentage gains. The problem I've always had with Gold is it's limited industrial use combined with the fact that unlike Silver virtually all the Gold that's ever been mined is still lying around in vaults or safety deposit boxes. Another problem I have with Gold is the fact that the IMF and central bankers hold huge amounts of it and use their holdings to manipulte the price still Gold will always be the king of metals and the ultimate hard money.
I can see the price of Gold making a strong run after this phase plays out with the ultimate blowoff price somewhere above $2,000 possibly above $3,000 if all hell breaks loose and fiat currencies are replace with a Gold backed currency.

Silver is by far my favorite precious metal although at times it drives me completely insane with the constant ups and downs. There are so many industrial uses for Silver and it seems like more are being developed everyday but Silver is also a monetary metal as throughout history Gold and Silver along with copper for small transactions were the metals used for coinage. The interesting thing about Silver is that unlike Gold most of the Silver ever mined is sitting in garbage dumps and landfills, also the IMF and central banks own no Silver so they can't threaten to sell or actually sell to drive the price down. Throughout history Gold traded at a 15 to 20:1 ratio to Silver but recently it got as high as 100:1, now it trades at roughly 70:1 so I would have to say that Silver is grossly undervalued compared to Gold. Some people even claim that there is more Gold above ground than Silver and if true it would seem to present an incredible opportunity for middle to lower income people as well as wealthy people. Almost everyone is aware of the huge naked short positions by some large banks and possibly China in the Silver and Gold markets so until this situation is rectified either by regulators (fat chance) or a massive short squeeze it will probably be awhile before the Silver market busts loose. There is one thing that could trigger a surge in Silver prices that no amount of naked shorting could prevent, a supply disruption caused by dwindling mine production. As the easy Silver has already been found the mines will have to resort to more extreme measures to find Silver in the future and their cost of production will skyrocket, if the price they get for their product isn't sufficient they will have to close the mines. Unless a substitute for Silver is found the end users will have to pay what it takes to ensure a supply of Silver.
What do I think the price of Silver will eventually be, well if you look at the all time high of $50 and adjust it for inflation via cpi numbers I would think the minnimum price would be around $150. If Gold hits the high end of what I think is possible $3,000 and a 20:1 historic ratio is applied you get $150 however at times Silver has traded at a 15:1 ratio and sometimes less so that gives a price target of $200 or more so that is what I think the upper end of the price of Silver would be $150-$200 with a spike to $250 possible. There is a chart that tracks Silver throughout history and when factoring purchasing power this is about as cheap as Silver has ever been, if I remember correctly the all time purchasing power high for Silver was around 600 years ago at nearly $800 an oz. so I wouldn't dismiss $150 Silver as impossible at some point in the future.

roadrunner

Now you went and done it Norseman88.

Within 24 hours expect a visit by fc to dispute all your claims.

I read a fairly interesting argument by one analyst estimating the survival and consumption rates of silver ever since records have been kept. From that, the analyst figured 5% of all the silver ever mined is still around, around 24 billion ounces, a far larger amount than the 0.5 to 5 BILL ounces that Ted Butler and other silver bulls have published. The 24B oz. works out to be around 5X the total amount of gold mined throughout history. So possibly even the 16 to 1 historic ratio might be understating silver's value.

There are $190 BILL short derivative contracts out there on silver held by a couple of big banks. That works out to be 13.5B ounces or over half the world's supply if you could find it all at once. This is roughly on the order of 50 yrs of silver production. A nice trick.

eagle.com/editorials_99/mbutler110799.html">remaining silver estimate

The above author uses slightly diff numbers but comes out pretty close to the above and a 4-1 silver/gold ratio.

roadrunner