I'll throw out a stock as well... but first I must say that I have no feel for when or if the stock will move up or not. The stock just looks compelling and everything I read looks and sounds good. I have a small position but I view it as a lottery ticket. This one probably won't move (much) with the price of gold.
For the life of me, I can't see why you would touch TRE. There are so many other gold stocks to own that make profits and pay dividends. I wouldn't touch TRE
Citi at .25 is still >25 cents more than they are worth. If not for taxpayer "bailing" money who knows where they'd be. They still have over $30 TRILL in derivatives to "retire" before the word solvent can even be considered. The regulators and politicians are just beginning to figure out the totality of "assets" these guys really have hiding in the basement. While trying to regulate derivatives going forward, this does nothing to resolve the legacy assets remaining behind.
I could see TRE at $5-$10 before Citi ever makes it back there. Just a wild guess. It doesn't mean that either company is currency profitable, just what their share price ends up being. Look at all the dot.coms that never had any value that were listed for hundreds of times more than 25c. No assets either, not even a hunk of ground to call their own. To me, the big bank stocks are absolutely just horrendous and to think they talk of earnings and making money. This they do by either grossly overstating their derivative's valuations or ignoring them, substituting another month for a hugely negative December, and counting many one time revenue streams as continuing income. I think the best scheme is when the banks bonds have fallen in price and they book that as income because their total debt is less. Whatever it takes to show a + sign on the bottom line for sheepholders to exalt in. In fact, I believe the majority of the OTC derivatives were ignored during the stress test, sort of like ignoring a homeowner's credit card balance when considering them for a home loan. Ironically, the only stress that really matters is the derivatives. It's what got us here.
Another interesting article by Rob Kirby. My first thought was maybe it was the UK's 415 ton sale that coincided with his article. But the 10th anniversary of Gordon's Folly was celebrated last week on May 10th. That gold would have been needed to be kept on ice until Sept/October 1999.
Gold and silver bullion appear to be one upleg behind the miners which just peaked on Wednesday after completing 5 legs up. From here the miners should go through a corrective phase even with gold and silver inching higher. For now it looks like this slow action in gold and silver bullion is performing the role of the last corrective leg (ie time) before jumping into the 5th leg up. But a decent move in gold could easily resurrect the miners for another leg up.
The gold to silver ratio has been correcting upwards for a few days and will likely seek 67.5 to 69 before ending. Rather than dumping both the metals together it's been expanding the ratio by slowly lowering silver and inching up on gold. The $USD is making a move back up which will put pressure on gold and silver for a period. More troubling is that the COT report on gold shows the short to long interest on commerical gold futures is now at 3.03 to 1. Typically, when that ratio breaks 3, a smackdown is only days to a week or two away. The Feb 17th peak ended at 3.18 which puts us 1 week away. Even the massive smackdown from March 2008 only reached ratios of 3.5 to 1. The quickly rising short positions of the commercials (ie big banks) are painting a bearish paper picture.
The bankers still have time to cash out their numerous in the money June options next week as gold moves into the $940-$955 range. But from there I would expect a smack down in the short term...something about having cake and eating it too. Gold futures options expire Tuesday the 26th.
I think I mostly agree with RR. I think next week is going to be bullish for the first few days. Gold finally broke through $927 so if should be free to run a little bit. After grinding sideways for so long the patter is full of energy for a good move. I see gold hitting $970 and then getting the smack down, probably back down to $927 since gold struggled hard at this level.
PC, I reviewed one analyst's gold weekly chart and that is painting a pretty good picture for the weeks to come. They added that the heavy resistance from $880-$930 has just been gone through. There is far less resistance up from here than there is back down. An interesting thought.
I found this morning's sell off interesting. You guys must think its manipulation. I look forward to your breakout through 1,000 as that is what I am waiting to see.
<< <i>I found this morning's sell off interesting. You guys must think its manipulation. I look forward to your breakout through 1,000 as that is what I am waiting to see. >>
I'm not sure what to make of it yet. The dollar is now down .43 (down .6+ from the peak today), and the stock market is on fire with the S%P up over about 20. It's not makeing a lot of sense.
Gold went up $50 and then drops $10, so it is manipulation?
On May 4th it gapped open $20. Yet that wasnt manipulation?
That is just the way things trade. I could show 100 charts are stocks with quick moves up and down you if I removed their name you would all think the are the charts of gold.
Stocks go up, stocks go down. Gold goes up, gold goes down. Dont think about why, just trade it and profit.
I found this morning's sell off interesting. You guys must think its manipulation. I look forward to your breakout through 1,000 as that is what I am waiting to see.
Who here has mentioned a breakout to $1000? No one that I can see other yourself. The likely action for the past week was $935-$960 and technically we may have already reached that as of the past 2 days. The action in June should be stronger. The action to $1000+ exceeding the all-time high will come no later than December 2009 to May 2010. The current commercial position of 3.03 shorts to each long in the gold futures (5/15) is too strong in the short term to make a run to $1000.
Both May 4 and today's action seem to me to be manipulative action by the banksters to clear out either the shorts or the longs, while they take the opposite position. They helped to run the price up to $930 while keeping as few players in the market as possible. Today they ran it down to knock out 50% of the last wave from $898 to $934. In the process they took a pile of stops along the way clearing the way for a move back up. We may still see a move to say $906 but I think by Wed-Friday we are right back into the $930's. The almost $15-$20/oz instantaneous moves are basically road clearing evolutions by the commericals (ie the banks)....or otherwise known as free money. Call it trading if you will, but seems more manipulative imo. On what other commodities, currencies, or stocks other than gold or silver do you usually see these types of instantaneous moves several times per week? Oil? Nat. Gas? Plat? $USD? $USTB? Copper? Uranium? GM? GE? I guess I could say the bigger bank stocks but that type of behavior seems to be more the norm ever since they have gone insolvent. I don't recall them being that volatile during the 2003-2008 run-up. The banks are bidding their own stocks up/down any ways just as they do in gold/silver. So no surprise with the volatility.
Hedge fund firms Paulson & Co. and Lone Pine Capital made big bets on gold during the first quarter, becoming the No. 1 and No. 2 shareholders, respectively, in the SPDR Gold Trust (GLD) exchange-traded fund, according to regulatory filings.
Paulson & Co. - run by John Paulson, who had already been beefing up his exposure to gold companies - bought 31.5 million shares of the ETF during the first quarter, according to its mandatory end-of-first-quarter holdings report with the Securities and Exchange Commission. That stake would be worth more than $2.8 billion if Paulson still holds all those shares at present.
Stephen Mandel's Lone Pine bought 26.5 million shares of the ETF, which would be worth $2.4 billion if it still holds those shares. Lone Pine didn't immediately return a message seeking comment.
Roadrunner wrote: "Who here has mentioned a breakout to $1000?"
Well all I can say Roadrunner, is that if you don't have a breakout you have nothing to look forward to. All this means is that gold is still stuck in its trading range. And there is NOTHING to be bullish about. A trading range is a trading range -- go ahead and trade it -- but stop preaching about gold. Trading ranges are not for long term holders. Trading ranges are just for traders.
On what other commodities, currencies, or stocks other than gold or silver do you usually see these types of instantaneous moves several times per week
Roadrunner, here is a chart of Macys over the last month. Look at the big gaps, spikes and 5% intraday moves almost everyday. I chose Macys cuz it has a $5 billion market cap and trades 15 million shares a day. This is one of the most liquid stocks in the market, yet is very volatile. I could show the charts from 3 years ago with the same volatility. Obviously the (PPT) has no incentive to "manipulate" the price of Macys, yet it is volatile. Accept the volatility in gold as nothing more and the picture will become much more clear.
Codhk, when you read charts, you have to pay attention to every move. You can't simply dismiss the moves as volatility and ignore them. Yesterday's move down could mean the more movement to the downside is coming.
As for me, I closed out my long position yesterday, and now I'm waiting on the sidelines to see how the current patter works itself out. I still think the overall movement is going to be up, but I wouldn't be surprised to see a test down to $900 or so, at which point I'll look to get back in.
Yesterday's move down could mean the more movement to the downside is coming.
Absolutely. I couldnt agree more.
My point is simply that everytime gold goes down $10 in an hour people jump on the "manipulation bandwagon", which I find quite humorous. Now I dont mind a good laugh, but eventually my tummy hurts and I throw up.
Remember a $10 move at $1000 is a 1% move. This is the same as a $3 move when gold was $300. Is that really such a big deal? Eliminate the emotion from your trading and investment beliefs and you will be a MUCH more profitable trader/investor.
<< <i>As for me, I closed out my long position yesterday, and now I'm waiting on the sidelines to see how the current patter works itself out. I still think the overall movement is going to be up, but I wouldn't be surprised to see a test down to $900 or so, at which point I'll look to get back in. >>
"Bongo drive 1984 Lincoln that looks like old coin dug from ground."
Well all I can say Roadrunner, is that if you don't have a breakout you have nothing to look forward to. All this means is that gold is still stuck in its trading range. And there is NOTHING to be bullish about. A trading range is a trading range -- go ahead and trade it -- but stop preaching about gold. Trading ranges are not for long term holders. Trading ranges are just for traders.
I have plenty to look forward to, such as $1200-$1400 within the next 12 months. Gold stocks will have doubled in that time. And up to that point there will be breaks up and down to play. What we have to look forward to is the continuation of carving out the right shoulder of this IH&S formation going back to mid-2008. If $700 is not breached, that formation should predict a snap-back to $1400. The S&P/Dow are carving out a similar formation that could produce equivalent gains in 12 months assuming we don't retest 6600/660 in the interim. The dollar is working on forming a bearish H&S, bullish for gold. And by the time most pundits figure out we're in another gold bull run past it's old high, they'll be miles behind the curve and in a very risky position if they are buying in at $1200+. A sequence of daily moves of $100+ by that time could easily occur. If chasing strength and buying high is one's bag, go for it. But if that's preferable to buying into a core position well before then (ie what you call "trading" = buying in before a new bull market is broadcast to the world)....then good luck with that.
Cohodk, it's not $10 dips or bumps averaged over one hour that I am referring to, but the even larger changes that repeatedly occur in seconds or a couple of minutes. $10-$20/oz gold moves "slowly" over an hour or so is not volatile imo. One can track that action. That's buyers and sellers getting together to trade. But when that's done in 1-5 minutes with the seller not looking to maximize their profits, that smells far different. Those are hunting expeditions for buy/sell stops. I would add that March 9th through today has been volatile for most stocks, Macy's included. With GS leading the charge with 5X the trading volume of the other big banks combined, and plenty of support from PPT/Treasury funds (via AIG and co.) the huge swings are no surprise. You mention PPT tracks. And I have no doubts GS and other banks/funds besides the PPT are pumping retailers like Macy's just like they've been doing to banks, tech, GM, GE, and other companies whose stock prices have needed "help" since early March. The least GS could have done with the $12.9 BILL they got out of AIG is to lead a stock market rally just when it was needed.
I do note the constant spikes on Macy's volumes centered on the # for each day. What is that all about? Does something happen with retailers at the same time most every day that leads to volume/price spikes in either direction?
As far as being emotional, I buy on those $10-$20 slamdowns unless I feel pretty sure there are 2 or 3 more coming in succession. And I often sell on those spike ups as well. Like Proofcollection I took advantage of today's up action in the gold stocks to move out of a number of positions. But I did buy on yesterday's slamdown and sold out today. June will offer up more action but it's hard not to want to take 10% moves off the table. We didn't convincingly get back to $930-$934 yet, the 3-1 short to long commercial position worries me, and PM bullion and PM stocks are fairly close to thier upper trading range.
I can't see buying into this kind of a quick move up especially since both GLD and GDX are up against the upper bollinger bands again (ie normal trading range). I count GDX in a clear 5 wave move up that is now in the final stages. GLD is in a 5th wave as well but not as advanced. This would seem to be a good time for the commercials to cash out of their call options before options expire on Tuesday. We were expecting a bullish move up. Here it is. With a long weekend coming up, strange things could happen at close Friday or open on Tuesday. Since breaking out above the Feb-May downtrend line there hasn't been a retest of it yet. It does seem that there is a pull back soon to come. But it's looking like that $952 move is coming shortly.
I still feel June has something to offer us. If we are in a new bull move since November, then we are now finishing the first wave up. Typically, the 3rd wave up to follow should be a deusie. But in between calls for a correction. But...I'm still having a hard time putting this move together with a seasonal drop in the summer and then coming up strong by December. What would fit this better is still one more strong corrective wave down to at least $864 after peaking in the mid to upper $900's in May/June. Then there would be plenty of time to grow back up from August-December. That would form a more solid base for a very strong major 3rd leg up.
I'd be a seller here of gold stocks rather than a buyer. I'd hold on another day or so with bullion to see if $950-$960 can be reached. Safer to buy when things are weak (ie back when this move started at $864-$882). Volume on a number of gold related equities is not all that strong, similar to the S&P/Dow. More caution flags than bull flags. But isn't that how the gold bull keeps bucking any weak hands off along the way?
I agree, I couldn't bring myself to buy into this move today. At the end of the day I did buy an options strangle on GLD. That way I make money if it moves significantly in either direction. If there's a run tomorrow morning to $960 or so, I'll probably sell the call and wait for the decline to sell the put.
In the big picture, I seem to recall (but I'd have to check) that the first week of June or so is typically a low point for gold relative to the price at the end of the year. If this hold true, then we'll see the next two weeks hammer gold... which I wouldn't be surprised to see happen. I don't think this will be a typical year though.
In the big picture, I seem to recall (but I'd have to check) that the first week of June or so is typically a low point for gold relative to the price at the end of the year. If this hold true, then we'll see the next two weeks hammer gold... which I wouldn't be surprised to see happen. I don't think this will be a typical year though.
While I would consider that the seasonality factor is there, we must consider that we're in a different zone now than in any of the previous 36 years going back to August 15, 1971 (fiat day). Major dislocations can occur instantaneously in the any currency, stocks, USTB's, missiles being launched out of Iran, Pakistan, another bank assumed by JPM/GS, etc., and a whole host of issues that don't care about seasonality. I read one blog tonight that feels that BoA is likely to be absorbed by JPM. Probabably a reward for JPM playing along and punishment to BoA for ratting out the FED/Treasury on the Merrill deal. Citi will probably go to the guy that doesn't get BoA. Both Citi and BoA have $30-$38 TRILL derivatives books that no doubt the 2 remaining goliaths can find useful. WFC only has about a $5 TRILL derivative's book and is not the player that the other banks are. Another deleveraging event would seem well timed to coincide with typical stock market seasonal weakness later this year.
I was reviewing seasonality charts last week and we are already into the weakest part of the year right now with June being even weaker. Any previous significant gold rallys of the past 7 years pretty much ended by March or mid-April. So that means the rally we have been seeing for the past few weeks is an illusion. And that may hold true for the one in June as well. The gold/silver ratio bottomed around 65.1 yesterday and is not pulling back by keeping silver constant and gold meandering up. Silver is having trouble crossing the $14.35 mark seems more like its behaving with the stock market while gold plays catch-up regardless. If silver can finally break this heavy resistance it effectively releases gold to the upper $900's. In any case one would thing this latest gold move should wrap up by Friday.
Roadrunner wrote: "I have plenty to look forward to, such as $1200-$1400 within the next 12 months."
Okay, now we have you on the record. If gold breaks through 1,000 an ounce, I'll be there with you. Until the break out past 1,000 I'll sit back and watch the "trading range."
Okay, now we have you on the record. If gold breaks through 1,000 an ounce, I'll be there with you. Until the break out past 1,000 I'll sit back and watch the "trading range."
MoneyLA, if you came around here more often it would save a lot of confusion and repetition. I made a prediction of a new all time high in gold coming by spring of next year long before today. For all I know it could happen next month, I've said that before as well. But it should happen no later than the period of Dec 2009-April 2010. All systems are aligned for a go now. Now it's just ticking down the clock. JPM and their ilk will still end up with most of the gold in the end. That's always been the game plan. But not before they make a ton of money trading on it long and short in the process.
Will you be there with me at $1002? $1008? $1025? $1035? $1050? $1100? At what point will you be "sure" this is going to be a new bull run and just not another bounce back or bull trap as we had in Feb? When will MoneyLA's LA money be committed? And does it matter to you that the US dollar index is currently 14% higher than what it was when gold last peaked at $1033 in March 2008. Using a simple, but incorrect 1-1 ratio, this means that today's price in gold would be at least 14% higher in real terms (ie today's gold price is really $1070 when compared to March 2008). But in reality, the dollar dropped 41% from 2001-2008 while gold rallyed 4X from $255 to $1033 (this is more a geometric relationship). That would imply that a 14% drop in the USD is worth at least a 36% premium to current price or $1278 gold. In other words it would have taken gold at $1278 in March 2008 to be at the same point $940 gold is today (based on the USDX being .81 today rather than .71 as it was in 3/09). Does this make a difference in your reasoning, or is $1000 still the number to declare bullishness?
This compares to how the $875/oz 1980 gold high was stuck in people's minds forever even though we trashed the financial system in the ensuing 27 years while quadrupling the money supply and increasing overall credit by 100-1000X? Yet during all that time gold didn't/couldn't exceed it's earlier record, essentially falling to 30% of it's non-inflation adjusted high in 2002 (probably 10% if inflation adjusted). So just what does $1000 gold mean today if anything? Is it just a psychological barrier? Or is it a line in the sand the bankers/politicians don't want crossed....until they say so (ie have all their gold seeds and sprouts neatly bundled)?
(jmski thinks that May is not the best month for pms, but that a change in the weather in Sept-Oct will be a tripwire for a large pm move to the upside, say 1300 gold. It always seems that when the first cold, rainy weather hits, people start to sober up regarding their money situations. Of course - Iran, China, Pakistan or Russia could accelerate that move anytime.)
Q: Are You Printing Money? Bernanke: Not Literally
the State Workers Union is mostly to blame. California had almost as much revenue in 2004 as last year, yet most is spent now on State empoyee's salarys and benefits.
The School system is terrible (because of the unions) so top heavy in Administration in Sacramento The Infrastauture is terrible (because of the unions)
Why do you think all the measures were voted down this Tuesday? The education, health care and spending taxes???? The public knows that California government is dysfuntional!!
The only ballot measure that passed was to eliminate salary increases for legislature when there is a budget deficit. 3 to 1
There is an ever growing thought of having a Constitution Convention to adopt a new Constitution. The last done in 1849 and one of the oldest in the USA if not the world.
Regarding 57LOADED's statement about state workers/unions of California
The state workers (U.S. Citizens) get the blame again.
Another true and absolute reason reason is the welfare state that california has become. The main culprit is illegal immigration and the resulting billions of dollars to educate, hospitalize, house and police a whole population of people that have invaded the state illegaly and until this item alone is corrected we will continue to trash the citizens and keep paying out the billions and billions to support those who do not support the state they live in but send their U.S. Dollars home to Mexico, San Salvador, Cuba etc.
Its perfectly acceptable to trash the state workers and its even politically accepted but to identify the true and deeper problem is taboo.
This should not be. This country is disentigrating because of this nonesense of political correctness. It needs to go the way of the dinosuars so we can effectively deal with these problems for what they are and do it humanely and with compassion, but deal with it. Text
NumbersUsa, FairUs, Alipac, CapsWeb, and TeamAmericaPac
57Loaded says the school systems is terrible in california, and it is. Do you realize that in the southern part of california and in the great central valley the majority of schools seat over 50% children of illegal aliens or illegal alien children. These students populate nearly 80% at some schools. We the California tax payers are mandated to pay for this situation. Yes the schools are taking a humongus piece of pie but it wouldn't be that way if the millions of illegal aliens were not part of the system. There is a proper way to enter this country and state and all should have to abide by those laws. If we would clean up this mess the state would pull out of this crisis and become a power house again. Any country that can not control its borders and allows almost unabated illegal immigration is destined for terminal illness. I wish that we could handle massive inflows of humanity in to our country but we can't as of yet and no other country has ever done it and survived, in time it saps all.
NumbersUsa, FairUs, Alipac, CapsWeb, and TeamAmericaPac
<< <i>57Loaded says the school systems is terrible in california, and it is. Do you realize that in the southern part of california and in the great central valley the majority of schools seat over 50% children of illegal aliens or illegal alien children. These students populate nearly 80% at some schools. We the California tax payers are mandated to pay for this situation. Yes the schools are taking a humongus piece of pie but it wouldn't be that way if the millions of illegal aliens were not part of the system. There is a proper way to enter this country and state and all should have to abide by those laws. If we would clean up this mess the state would pull out of this crisis and become a power house again. Any country that can not control its borders and allows almost unabated illegal immigration is destined for terminal illness. I wish that we could handle massive inflows of humanity in to our country but we can't as of yet and no other country has ever done it and survived, in time it saps all. >>
The only way to fix it is for you people who feel this way to organize and actively protest and get loud about it. You guys are too quiet.
<< <i>As for me, I closed out my long position yesterday, and now I'm waiting on the sidelines to see how the current patter works itself out. I still think the overall movement is going to be up, but I wouldn't be surprised to see a test down to $900 or so, at which point I'll look to get back in. >>
It appears, you may have pulled your "trigger" prematurely, but no one has ever gone broke taking a profit. Gold over $950 an oz as I type Silver at $14.50 Euro at $1.39
Thought I'd mention it so that we can get back on subject.
"Bongo drive 1984 Lincoln that looks like old coin dug from ground."
Hey if some here can keep slamming state workers (U.S. citizens) whom were hired to do a job, who live here permanently, follow and abide by our laws, pay their due share of taxes and support their local communities with time and money and nary a whimper is said about it.
Then why can't a statistical fact be brought forward and it gets slammed and its ok. Its not ok and tis is the reason we are ALL going down the path of fiscal decay.
I didn't start the discussion, but its a shame that we can dump on some and not even tolerate the obvious.
This is a coin forum I agree and I will honor that fact , But please quit putting blame on the state worker in these forums without considering the biggest factor of all.
PS I'm not a state worker and have no relatives that are.
NumbersUsa, FairUs, Alipac, CapsWeb, and TeamAmericaPac
<< <i>As for me, I closed out my long position yesterday, and now I'm waiting on the sidelines to see how the current patter works itself out. I still think the overall movement is going to be up, but I wouldn't be surprised to see a test down to $900 or so, at which point I'll look to get back in. >>
It appears, you may have pulled your "trigger" prematurely, but no one has ever gone broke taking a profit. Gold over $950 an oz as I type Silver at $14.50 Euro at $1.39
Thought I'd mention it so that we can get back on subject. >>
Yes premature, as always.... My selling should have been your cue to buy - that's how it always seems to work out. I knew that it might head higher but I think there is a smackdown coming. How soon, I just don't know. We might be able to hit $970.
And to address the OT subject, all I was saying is that it's time for the people to let their dissatisfaction be known. There's a lot of talk, and there is some action, but there needs to be MORE action. That's all I'm saying. We need to take this country back. And that's all I'm going to say about that.
I'm in the same boat, my original entries are batting 75%+ over 2 years but my exit is always premature and I mean always. I'm glad for the profits but I've watched what could have been multiples slip away after my small profitable exit.
The old saying, "Cut your losses quick and let your winners Run" is harder said than done.
I believe its a apprehension of the trade turning in to loser that gets me out premature. I look at the daily-quarterly and see that the both the monthly and weekly has turned up, and is still in up trend but when that daily appears to be topping both in price, slow stochastics, histogrham and william%r I spook and get out.
Now maybe I just cured myself since I put it in print. "The trend is your friend" again easier said than done.
If any one has some pointers for a cure of this malady please advise.
NumbersUsa, FairUs, Alipac, CapsWeb, and TeamAmericaPac
Don't forget the Unions are comprised by those very state workers. Without the creation of labor unions our line people in all fields would probably still be working 6 days a week, 12 hours a day and under poor working conditions. There are not too many Henry Ford's in the Business world. Thats why they have turned to Illegal workers because they can still get by with more of the same with minimal repercussions. The unions I agree have taken a good thing and are doing as most all do, try to stay powerful and represent their members. But the real culprit is Unbridaled Illegal Immigration into the State. Not only has the legislature gone limp in its path, almost this whole countrys population has went to sleep at the wheel on this Dread Naught of an issue.
Lets give the Unions a break unless we are willing to faithfully deal with the Real Issue underlying the whole.
NumbersUsa, FairUs, Alipac, CapsWeb, and TeamAmericaPac
It appears, you may have pulled your "trigger" prematurely, but no one has ever gone broke taking a profit. Gold over $950 an oz as I type Silver at $14.50 Euro at $1.39
It's easy to pick apart predictions after the fact. But it's not too hard to notice that only 2 people here really stuck their necks out to try to guess the market's next likely move. In fact on Tuesday's action the short term charts looked far more bearish than bullish. The momentum clearly had shifted down Monday and Tuesday, then reversed course Wed as if that was a perfectly set up head fake by the commericials. Seeing the dollar re-crashing just at that point, with the SM slowing up, and treasuries weakening further was not a cinch to see. In fact I was looking for the dollar to start moving back the other way. It will probably do so from its current .80-.81 level as the timing seems right with everything else.
The gold/silver ratio (GSR) went back to retest the 64.0 level again today after wandering back up to 67.5 a few days ago. The 10 day Bollinger Bands for GSR have just constricted tightly for the first time in weeks. This tells me a big change is due almost immediately (either gold continues to outpace silver up towards $970+, or both start to fall off with silver slipping faster. I would not be surprised if the GSR starts heading back to the 69 level as soon as Friday to slow or end this current up leg in gold/silver. With options expiring on Tuesday and Monday a holiday, I think the banks will book their long profits tomorrow and start reducing their short futures positions. This can still mean rising gold prices for a few days longer but only with silver lagging as it has been doing lately. The dollar and USTB look close to reversing as does the Euro. That would slow or reverse gold.
The FEDs took down a very large Florida bank today rather than wait until the usual Friday. This probably to accomodate a more leisure long weekend by the FED/FDIC. Have a happy Memorial Day weekend fellas!
I'm going to turn very short term long here with gold just under $960. I think we'll definitely hit $970 today or Tuesday., so I'm back in long with a small position. I'm out at $970, I still think there is a short term correction coming.
Gold's behavior has changed. A lot of worldwide sentiment has changed. The fed has kicked into high gear monitizing its own debt. China and other countries are growing increasingly anti-dollar. The effect of a lot of stimulus money from last fall is starting to hit the economy, and this will only increase over the next year and beyond. I think this week was pivotal for gold and gold continues to show strength. I think over the next couple of weeks we may get a chance to buy back in on a dip to th $920's again, but my forecast for July-Oct is $1400. I think we're in for a $400 gain over 4 months starting in July. An equivalent move for silver would put it around $20. The days of sub $1000 gold are numbered.
Additionally, I think gold is entering the final stage of a 5 year (total) parabolic growth pattern. Compare a 5+ year gold chart with the early stages of other parabolic moves like oil, or housing stocks in the last couple of years.
PC, I hope you're right because the monthly "trading range" updates from MoneyLA are getting stale. Time to put this myth to bed. All we have to do is finish carving out the right shoulder and then keep gold fairly strong for the start of the summer.
In looking at the USD and USTB both look primed for a rebound very soon. The general stock market only needs a touch more correction down to start into its major 3rd leg up. Yes, I can't believe I'm saying that. It seems much more likely to continue on with another couple of up legs from here than to go down. Bank index correlates with that as well. As overpriced as GS seemed at 144, they are probably going to take it much higher. Commodities such as copper, aluminum are also completing their final legs of a corrective ABC pattern. And for the past 2 months the SM and general commodities have moved lock step together. Oil seems to be caught inbetween up legs with a current 3rd leg up. So it too has more rise to come to finish a 5th leg up. Natural gas is finishing a quick and harsh tanking, and seems to be aligned more with copper than it does with oil.
Based on all the above I can see a breather in gold and silver as the stock market and general commodities get some fresh legs. Gold and silver are completing their 5th legs up in this first wave. The next up wave will probably be more parabolic than this one was. The only question I can't resolve is how we interject another set of legs (2,3,4,5) from here and still finish up in June/July at the latest? This would give credence to PC's move of several hundred dollars.
As far as overall major legs since 2001, I think the first 2 were as follows and that we are currently at the early stages of leg 3. This is what wave theorist Alf Field has subscribed to.
Putting in those estimates gets a final value of $7500/oz. fwiw. Typically, the last 2 up legs match or well exceed the length of the first leg. Even using a hugely conservative $778 estimate for all 3 up legs, combined with a pair of 33% corrections still nets about $1770 which is very much in line with Sinclair's absolute minumum of $1650 which he forecasted 8 years ago. Note that his estimate was then based on covering our foreign debt with the 8133 tons of US gold. That was the same methodology he used in the early 1970's to come with $900 gold for the peak of the 1980 market. With our foreign debt leaps and bounds higher vs. 8 years ago, it would take gold closer to 5 figures to now cover our current foreign debt. And it will be much higher in a few years from now as well.
Proof, In my mind parabolic is $7,000.00 Gold. The Stock markets parabolic rise took it from 770 low in 1982, past the 1000 barrier that stopped it for years, and then topped approximately 19 years latter at almost 15x over (11,500 or so dow) from its low of 770.
NumbersUsa, FairUs, Alipac, CapsWeb, and TeamAmericaPac
This would be a good time to take the Calif Union bashing topic to its own thread if the debaters wish to continue. Let's keep this one on topic about May trading trends. Thanks.
<< <i>Proof, In my mind parabolic is $7,000.00 Gold. The Stock markets parabolic rise took it from 770 low in 1982, past the 1000 barrier that stopped it for years, and then topped approximately 19 years latter at almost 15x over (11,500 or so dow) from its low of 770. >>
I didn't complete my thought above. The 5th leg of the parabolic move will take until 4Q of 2010. Other parabolic moves (oil, real estate) saw about a 1.5 multiplier from the end of the 4th leg. That would put gold at $2500. I think there are other factors at play with PMs that may push this higher. Namely, a "shortage" of available physical material and unwinding of large short positions. BTW, the 5th leg of a parabolic move is where it actually starts to look like a parabola, but the extreme moves don't come until the final months... 2nd half of 2010. Until then it will look like a steadily increasing price.
i am very surprised by this move upwards in gold and silver during this time frame! i was wrong.
i just wonder if this is pure speculation driving it up and when they get a signal to unload things will drop quite a bit erasing everything we see today.
<< <i>i am very surprised by this move upwards in gold and silver during this time frame! i was wrong.
i just wonder if this is pure speculation driving it up and when they get a signal to unload things will drop quite a bit erasing everything we see today.
time will tell! >>
I've seen that happen too many times. I just can't get excited about this run-up unless it goes to $1100-1200. It seems more likely to me that it will drop down to the $900 range soon.
I don't have any charts or information to support this, just my gut feeling and experience.
<< <i>This would be a good time to take the Calif Union bashing topic to its own thread if the debaters wish to continue. Let's keep this one on topic about May trading trends. Thanks.
roadrunner >>
RR sorry to hijack, my apologies to you and the forum
If the current leg stops short of $1000 (not that it must) it will just reinforce in the minds of all fiat/credit lovers once and for all that gold is a complete and total bust and waste of time and money. Unfortunately this will be the exact wrong time to be thinking that. On the next swing up it will be too late to get on board as gold will be moving swiftly as every hedge fund and their brother instantly try to board in the $1040-$1100 range. The price will probably blow right through there in a day or two on its way to $1200-$1400 within a week. Those that joined late will get shaken out on a violent move back down to $1000 or lower to place them into a big loss position. And once shaken out, gold will rebound and leave more people in the dust unwilling to pay even more money to be able to get back on board.
I was listening to a quick snippet of fast trading on CNBC to hear one trader denounce gold stating that he just doesn't ever see it doing anything. That is, that there are just too many other "safer" and worthwhile trades out in the market to bother dealing with gold. I've always thought of PM's as just the opposite, the only safe bet out there in times of gross fiscal uncerainty when held in physical form.
Comments
The stock is Tirex Resources. TIRXF, and it's in the Pink Sheets but it also trades on TSX and FSE. Website at http://www.tirexresources.com/s/Home.asp
They have no production, but they are exploring and have found what sounds to be some very rich mining claims in Albania.
Everything looks good but I often get burned on the pink sheets companies. Do your own research...
I would rather buy C at a similiar price.
Knowledge is the enemy of fear
<< <i>TRE is worth 25c, IMHO.
I would rather buy C at a similiar price. >>
how about C @ $1.59?
I could see TRE at $5-$10 before Citi ever makes it back there. Just a wild guess. It doesn't mean that either company is currency profitable, just what their share price ends up being. Look at all the dot.coms that never had any value that were listed for hundreds of times more than 25c. No assets either, not even a hunk of ground to call their own. To me, the big bank stocks are absolutely just horrendous and to think they talk of earnings and making money. This they do by either grossly overstating their derivative's valuations or ignoring them, substituting another month for a hugely negative December, and counting many one time revenue streams as continuing income. I think the best scheme is when the banks bonds have fallen in price and they book that as income because their total debt is less. Whatever it takes to show a + sign on the bottom line for sheepholders to exalt in. In fact, I believe the majority of the OTC derivatives were ignored during the stress test, sort of like ignoring a homeowner's credit card balance when considering them for a home loan. Ironically, the only stress that really matters is the derivatives. It's what got us here.
Another interesting article by Rob Kirby. My first thought was maybe it was the UK's 415 ton sale that coincided with his article. But the 10th anniversary of Gordon's Folly was celebrated last week on May 10th. That gold would have been needed to be kept on ice until Sept/October 1999.
The gold carry trade - a quick look at 10% lease rates and a 20% rise in gold just after signing the WAG in 1999
roadrunner
The gold to silver ratio has been correcting upwards for a few days and will likely seek 67.5 to 69 before ending. Rather than dumping both the metals together it's been expanding the ratio by slowly lowering silver and inching up on gold. The $USD is making a move back up which will put pressure on gold and silver for a period. More troubling is that the COT report on gold shows the short to long interest on commerical gold futures is now at 3.03 to 1. Typically, when that ratio breaks 3, a smackdown is only days to a week or two away. The Feb 17th peak ended at 3.18 which puts us 1 week away. Even the massive smackdown from March 2008 only reached ratios of 3.5 to 1. The quickly rising short positions of the commercials (ie big banks) are painting a bearish paper picture.
The bankers still have time to cash out their numerous in the money June options next week as gold moves into the $940-$955 range. But from there I would expect a smack down in the short term...something about having cake and eating it too. Gold futures options expire Tuesday the 26th.
roadrunner
roadrunner
www.AlanBestBuys.com
www.VegasBestBuys.com
<< <i>I found this morning's sell off interesting. You guys must think its manipulation. I look forward to your breakout through 1,000 as that is what I am waiting to see. >>
I'm not sure what to make of it yet. The dollar is now down .43 (down .6+ from the peak today), and the stock market is on fire with the S%P up over about 20. It's not makeing a lot of sense.
On May 4th it gapped open $20. Yet that wasnt manipulation?
That is just the way things trade. I could show 100 charts are stocks with quick moves up and down you if I removed their name you would all think the are the charts of gold.
Stocks go up, stocks go down. Gold goes up, gold goes down. Dont think about why, just trade it and profit.
Knowledge is the enemy of fear
Who here has mentioned a breakout to $1000? No one that I can see other yourself. The likely action for the past week was $935-$960 and technically we may have already reached that as of the past 2 days. The action in June should be stronger. The action to $1000+ exceeding the all-time high will come no later than December 2009 to May 2010. The current commercial position of 3.03 shorts to each long in the gold futures (5/15) is too strong in the short term to make a run to $1000.
Both May 4 and today's action seem to me to be manipulative action by the banksters to clear out either the shorts or the longs, while they take the opposite position. They helped to run the price up to $930 while keeping as few players in the market as possible. Today they ran it down to knock out 50% of the last wave from $898 to $934. In the process they took a pile of stops along the way clearing the way for a move back up. We may still see a move to say $906 but I think by Wed-Friday we are right back into the $930's. The almost $15-$20/oz instantaneous moves are basically road clearing evolutions by the commericals (ie the banks)....or otherwise known as free money. Call it trading if you will, but seems more manipulative imo. On what other commodities, currencies, or stocks other than gold or silver do you usually see these types of instantaneous moves several times per week? Oil? Nat. Gas? Plat? $USD? $USTB? Copper? Uranium? GM? GE? I guess I could say the bigger bank stocks but that type of behavior seems to be more the norm ever since they have gone insolvent. I don't recall them being that volatile during the 2003-2008 run-up. The banks are bidding their own stocks up/down any ways just as they do in gold/silver. So no surprise with the volatility.
roadrunner
<< <i>My take is that the selling came from profit takers who in turn bot equities. >>
http://www.smartmoney.com/breaking-news/on/?story=ON-20090518-000493-1519
Hedge Funds Making Big Bets on Gold
Hedge fund firms Paulson & Co. and Lone Pine Capital made big bets on gold during the first quarter, becoming the No. 1 and No. 2 shareholders, respectively, in the SPDR Gold Trust (GLD) exchange-traded fund, according to regulatory filings.
Paulson & Co. - run by John Paulson, who had already been beefing up his exposure to gold companies - bought 31.5 million shares of the ETF during the first quarter, according to its mandatory end-of-first-quarter holdings report with the Securities and Exchange Commission. That stake would be worth more than $2.8 billion if Paulson still holds all those shares at present.
Stephen Mandel's Lone Pine bought 26.5 million shares of the ETF, which would be worth $2.4 billion if it still holds those shares. Lone Pine didn't immediately return a message seeking comment.
Well all I can say Roadrunner, is that if you don't have a breakout you have nothing to look forward to. All this means is that gold is still stuck in its trading range. And there is NOTHING to be bullish about. A trading range is a trading range -- go ahead and trade it -- but stop preaching about gold. Trading ranges are not for long term holders. Trading ranges are just for traders.
www.AlanBestBuys.com
www.VegasBestBuys.com
Roadrunner, here is a chart of Macys over the last month. Look at the big gaps, spikes and 5% intraday moves almost everyday. I chose Macys cuz it has a $5 billion market cap and trades 15 million shares a day. This is one of the most liquid stocks in the market, yet is very volatile. I could show the charts from 3 years ago with the same volatility. Obviously the (PPT) has no incentive to "manipulate" the price of Macys, yet it is volatile. Accept the volatility in gold as nothing more and the picture will become much more clear.
Knowledge is the enemy of fear
As for me, I closed out my long position yesterday, and now I'm waiting on the sidelines to see how the current patter works itself out. I still think the overall movement is going to be up, but I wouldn't be surprised to see a test down to $900 or so, at which point I'll look to get back in.
Absolutely. I couldnt agree more.
My point is simply that everytime gold goes down $10 in an hour people jump on the "manipulation bandwagon", which I find quite humorous. Now I dont mind a good laugh, but eventually my tummy hurts and I throw up.
Remember a $10 move at $1000 is a 1% move. This is the same as a $3 move when gold was $300. Is that really such a big deal? Eliminate the emotion from your trading and investment beliefs and you will be a MUCH more profitable trader/investor.
Knowledge is the enemy of fear
<< <i>As for me, I closed out my long position yesterday, and now I'm waiting on the sidelines to see how the current patter works itself out. I still think the overall movement is going to be up, but I wouldn't be surprised to see a test down to $900 or so, at which point I'll look to get back in. >>
I have plenty to look forward to, such as $1200-$1400 within the next 12 months. Gold stocks will have doubled in that time. And up to that point there will be breaks up and down to play. What we have to look forward to is the continuation of carving out the right shoulder of this IH&S formation going back to mid-2008. If $700 is not breached, that formation should predict a snap-back to $1400. The S&P/Dow are carving out a similar formation that could produce equivalent gains in 12 months assuming we don't retest 6600/660 in the interim. The dollar is working on forming a bearish H&S, bullish for gold. And by the time most pundits figure out we're in another gold bull run past it's old high, they'll be miles behind the curve and in a very risky position if they are buying in at $1200+. A sequence of daily moves of $100+ by that time could easily occur. If chasing strength and buying high is one's bag, go for it. But if that's preferable to buying into a core position well before then (ie what you call "trading" = buying in before a new bull market is broadcast to the world)....then good luck with that.
Cohodk, it's not $10 dips or bumps averaged over one hour that I am referring to, but the even larger changes that repeatedly occur in seconds or a couple of minutes. $10-$20/oz gold moves "slowly" over an hour or so is not volatile imo. One can track that action. That's buyers and sellers getting together to trade. But when that's done in 1-5 minutes with the seller not looking to maximize their profits, that smells far different. Those are hunting expeditions for buy/sell stops. I would add that March 9th through today has been volatile for most stocks, Macy's included. With GS leading the charge with 5X the trading volume of the other big banks combined, and plenty of support from PPT/Treasury funds (via AIG and co.) the huge swings are no surprise. You mention PPT tracks. And I have no doubts GS and other banks/funds besides the PPT are pumping retailers like Macy's just like they've been doing to banks, tech, GM, GE, and other companies whose stock prices have needed "help" since early March. The least GS could have done with the $12.9 BILL they got out of AIG is to lead a stock market rally just when it was needed.
I do note the constant spikes on Macy's volumes centered on the # for each day. What is that all about? Does something happen with retailers at the same time most every day that leads to volume/price spikes in either direction?
As far as being emotional, I buy on those $10-$20 slamdowns unless I feel pretty sure there are 2 or 3 more coming in succession. And I often sell on those spike ups as well. Like Proofcollection I took advantage of today's up action in the gold stocks to move out of a number of positions. But I did buy on yesterday's slamdown and sold out today. June will offer up more action but it's hard not to want to take 10% moves off the table. We didn't convincingly get back to $930-$934 yet, the 3-1 short to long commercial position worries me, and PM bullion and PM stocks are fairly close to thier upper trading range.
roadrunner
I expect the price of gold to take off big in one direction or the other this week, but I still can't tell which way.
I still feel June has something to offer us. If we are in a new bull move since November, then we are now finishing the first wave up. Typically, the 3rd wave up to follow should be a deusie. But in between calls for a correction. But...I'm still having a hard time putting this move together with a seasonal drop in the summer and then coming up strong by December. What would fit this better is still one more strong corrective wave down to at least $864 after peaking in the mid to upper $900's in May/June. Then there would be plenty of time to grow back up from August-December. That would form a more solid base for a very strong major 3rd leg up.
I'd be a seller here of gold stocks rather than a buyer. I'd hold on another day or so with bullion to see if $950-$960 can be reached. Safer to buy when things are weak (ie back when this move started at $864-$882). Volume on a number of gold related equities is not all that strong, similar to the S&P/Dow. More caution flags than bull flags. But isn't that how the gold bull keeps bucking any weak hands off along the way?
roadrunner
In the big picture, I seem to recall (but I'd have to check) that the first week of June or so is typically a low point for gold relative to the price at the end of the year. If this hold true, then we'll see the next two weeks hammer gold... which I wouldn't be surprised to see happen. I don't think this will be a typical year though.
less of a rollercoaster in April and just a climb settle climb settle climb in May
VERY short term look
not much in the way of economic "news" this week either.
While I would consider that the seasonality factor is there, we must consider that we're in a different zone now than in any of the previous 36 years going back to August 15, 1971 (fiat day). Major dislocations can occur instantaneously in the any currency, stocks, USTB's, missiles being launched out of Iran, Pakistan, another bank assumed by JPM/GS, etc., and a whole host of issues that don't care about seasonality. I read one blog tonight that feels that BoA is likely to be absorbed by JPM. Probabably a reward for JPM playing along and punishment to BoA for ratting out the FED/Treasury on the Merrill deal. Citi will probably go to the guy that doesn't get BoA. Both Citi and BoA have $30-$38 TRILL derivatives books that no doubt the 2 remaining goliaths can find useful. WFC only has about a $5 TRILL derivative's book and is not the player that the other banks are. Another deleveraging event would seem well timed to coincide with typical stock market seasonal weakness later this year.
I was reviewing seasonality charts last week and we are already into the weakest part of the year right now with June being even weaker. Any previous significant gold rallys of the past 7 years pretty much ended by March or mid-April. So that means the rally we have been seeing for the past few weeks is an illusion. And that may hold true for the one in June as well. The gold/silver ratio bottomed around 65.1 yesterday and is not pulling back by keeping silver constant and gold meandering up. Silver is having trouble crossing the $14.35 mark seems more like its behaving with the stock market while gold plays catch-up regardless. If silver can finally break this heavy resistance it effectively releases gold to the upper $900's. In any case one would thing this latest gold move should wrap up by Friday.
roadrunner
Okay, now we have you on the record. If gold breaks through 1,000 an ounce, I'll be there with you. Until the break out past 1,000 I'll sit back and watch the "trading range."
www.AlanBestBuys.com
www.VegasBestBuys.com
MoneyLA, if you came around here more often it would save a lot of confusion and repetition. I made a prediction of a new all time high in gold coming by spring of next year long before today. For all I know it could happen next month, I've said that before as well. But it should happen no later than the period of Dec 2009-April 2010. All systems are aligned for a go now. Now it's just ticking down the clock. JPM and their ilk will still end up with most of the gold in the end. That's always been the game plan. But not before they make a ton of money trading on it long and short in the process.
Will you be there with me at $1002? $1008? $1025? $1035? $1050? $1100? At what point will you be "sure" this is going to be a new bull run and just not another bounce back or bull trap as we had in Feb? When will MoneyLA's LA money be committed? And does it matter to you that the US dollar index is currently 14% higher than what it was when gold last peaked at $1033 in March 2008. Using a simple, but incorrect 1-1 ratio, this means that today's price in gold would be at least 14% higher in real terms (ie today's gold price is really $1070 when compared to March 2008). But in reality, the dollar dropped 41% from 2001-2008 while gold rallyed 4X from $255 to $1033 (this is more a geometric relationship). That would imply that a 14% drop in the USD is worth at least a 36% premium to current price or $1278 gold. In other words it would have taken gold at $1278 in March 2008 to be at the same point $940 gold is today (based on the USDX being .81 today rather than .71 as it was in 3/09). Does this make a difference in your reasoning, or is $1000 still the number to declare bullishness?
This compares to how the $875/oz 1980 gold high was stuck in people's minds forever even though we trashed the financial system in the ensuing 27 years while quadrupling the money supply and increasing overall credit by 100-1000X? Yet during all that time gold didn't/couldn't exceed it's earlier record, essentially falling to 30% of it's non-inflation adjusted high in 2002 (probably 10% if inflation adjusted). So just what does $1000 gold mean today if anything? Is it just a psychological barrier? Or is it a line in the sand the bankers/politicians don't want crossed....until they say so (ie have all their gold seeds and sprouts neatly bundled)?
roadrunner
I was wondering exactly the same thing!
(jmski thinks that May is not the best month for pms, but that a change in the weather in Sept-Oct will be a tripwire for a large pm move to the upside, say 1300 gold. It always seems that when the first cold, rainy weather hits, people start to sober up regarding their money situations. Of course - Iran, China, Pakistan or Russia could accelerate that move anytime.)
I knew it would happen.
the State Workers Union is mostly to blame. California had almost as much revenue in 2004 as last year, yet most is spent now on State empoyee's salarys and benefits.
The School system is terrible (because of the unions) so top heavy in Administration in Sacramento
The Infrastauture is terrible (because of the unions)
Why do you think all the measures were voted down this Tuesday? The education, health care and spending taxes???? The public knows that California government is dysfuntional!!
The only ballot measure that passed was to eliminate salary increases for legislature when there is a budget deficit. 3 to 1
There is an ever growing thought of having a Constitution Convention to adopt a new Constitution. The last done in 1849 and one of the oldest in the USA if not the world.
The state workers (U.S. Citizens) get the blame again.
Another true and absolute reason reason is the welfare state that california has become. The main culprit is
illegal immigration and the resulting billions of dollars to educate, hospitalize, house and police a whole population
of people that have invaded the state illegaly and until this item alone is corrected we will continue to trash the citizens and
keep paying out the billions and billions to support those who do not support the state they live in but send their U.S. Dollars home to
Mexico, San Salvador, Cuba etc.
Its perfectly acceptable to trash the state workers and its even politically accepted but to identify the true and deeper problem is taboo.
This should not be. This country is disentigrating because of this nonesense of political correctness. It needs to go the way of the dinosuars
so we can effectively deal with these problems for what they are and do it humanely and with compassion, but deal with it. Text
of schools seat over 50% children of illegal aliens or illegal alien children. These students populate nearly 80% at some schools. We the California tax payers are mandated to pay for this situation. Yes the schools are taking a humongus piece of pie but it wouldn't be that way if the millions of illegal aliens were not part of the system.
There is a proper way to enter this country and state and all should have to abide by those laws. If we would clean up this mess the state would pull out of this crisis
and become a power house again. Any country that can not control its borders and allows almost unabated illegal immigration is destined for terminal illness.
I wish that we could handle massive inflows of humanity in to our country but we can't as of yet and no other country has ever done it and survived, in time it saps all.
<< <i>57Loaded says the school systems is terrible in california, and it is. Do you realize that in the southern part of california and in the great central valley the majority
of schools seat over 50% children of illegal aliens or illegal alien children. These students populate nearly 80% at some schools. We the California tax payers are mandated to pay for this situation. Yes the schools are taking a humongus piece of pie but it wouldn't be that way if the millions of illegal aliens were not part of the system.
There is a proper way to enter this country and state and all should have to abide by those laws. If we would clean up this mess the state would pull out of this crisis
and become a power house again. Any country that can not control its borders and allows almost unabated illegal immigration is destined for terminal illness.
I wish that we could handle massive inflows of humanity in to our country but we can't as of yet and no other country has ever done it and survived, in time it saps all. >>
The only way to fix it is for you people who feel this way to organize and actively protest and get loud about it. You guys are too quiet.
<< <i>As for me, I closed out my long position yesterday, and now I'm waiting on the sidelines to see how the current patter works itself out. I still think the overall movement is going to be up, but I wouldn't be surprised to see a test down to $900 or so, at which point I'll look to get back in. >>
It appears, you may have pulled your "trigger" prematurely, but no one has ever gone broke taking a profit.
Gold over $950 an oz as I type
Silver at $14.50
Euro at $1.39
Thought I'd mention it so that we can get back on subject.
Its not a feeling, just a cold statistical fact. The numbers are there, and the reality is overwhelming.
The knowledge to fix it and the laws to fix it are already in existance. Our representitives full well know the issue
and the ones who have stepped forward to try to fix it get the cold shoulder from the media at best and lambasted
with ridiculous and meaningless PC rhetoric. Yes we all need to speak up before we absolutely can not.
> Yes we all need to speak up before we absolutely can not
But not here in this thread. There are many other more appropriate places to discuss it.
follow and abide by our laws, pay their due share of taxes and support their local communities with time and money and nary a whimper is said about it.
Then why can't a statistical fact be brought forward and it gets slammed and its ok. Its not ok and tis is the reason we are ALL going down the path of
fiscal decay.
I didn't start the discussion, but its a shame that we can dump on some and not even tolerate the obvious.
This is a coin forum I agree and I will honor that fact , But please quit putting blame on the state worker in these forums without considering the biggest factor of all.
PS I'm not a state worker and have no relatives that are.
<< <i>
<< <i>As for me, I closed out my long position yesterday, and now I'm waiting on the sidelines to see how the current patter works itself out. I still think the overall movement is going to be up, but I wouldn't be surprised to see a test down to $900 or so, at which point I'll look to get back in. >>
It appears, you may have pulled your "trigger" prematurely, but no one has ever gone broke taking a profit.
Gold over $950 an oz as I type
Silver at $14.50
Euro at $1.39
Thought I'd mention it so that we can get back on subject. >>
Yes premature, as always.... My selling should have been your cue to buy - that's how it always seems to work out. I knew that it might head higher but I think there is a smackdown coming. How soon, I just don't know. We might be able to hit $970.
And to address the OT subject, all I was saying is that it's time for the people to let their dissatisfaction be known. There's a lot of talk, and there is some action, but there needs to be MORE action. That's all I'm saying. We need to take this country back. And that's all I'm going to say about that.
I'm in the same boat, my original entries are batting 75%+ over 2 years but my exit is always premature and I mean always. I'm glad for the
profits but I've watched what could have been multiples slip away after my small profitable exit.
The old saying, "Cut your losses quick and let your winners Run" is harder said than done.
I believe its a apprehension of the trade turning in to loser that gets me out premature. I look at the daily-quarterly and see that the both the monthly and weekly has turned up, and is still in up trend but when that daily appears to be topping both in price, slow stochastics, histogrham and william%r I spook and get out.
Now maybe I just cured myself since I put it in print. "The trend is your friend" again easier said than done.
If any one has some pointers for a cure of this malady please advise.
they (UNIONS) manipulate and control the legislature.
i mentioned a Constitutional Convention as in convening one...
still be working 6 days a week, 12 hours a day and under poor working conditions. There are not too many Henry Ford's in the Business world.
Thats why they have turned to Illegal workers because they can still get by with more of the same with minimal repercussions. The unions I agree
have taken a good thing and are doing as most all do, try to stay powerful and represent their members. But the real culprit is Unbridaled Illegal Immigration into the
State. Not only has the legislature gone limp in its path, almost this whole countrys population has went to sleep at the wheel on this Dread Naught of an issue.
Lets give the Unions a break unless we are willing to faithfully deal with the Real Issue underlying the whole.
Gold over $950 an oz as I type
Silver at $14.50
Euro at $1.39
It's easy to pick apart predictions after the fact. But it's not too hard to notice that only 2 people here really stuck their necks out to try to guess the market's next likely move. In fact on Tuesday's action the short term charts looked far more bearish than bullish. The momentum clearly had shifted down Monday and Tuesday, then reversed course Wed as if that was a perfectly set up head fake by the commericials. Seeing the dollar re-crashing just at that point, with the SM slowing up, and treasuries weakening further was not a cinch to see. In fact I was looking for the dollar to start moving back the other way. It will probably do so from its current .80-.81 level as the timing seems right with everything else.
The gold/silver ratio (GSR) went back to retest the 64.0 level again today after wandering back up to 67.5 a few days ago. The 10 day Bollinger Bands for GSR have just constricted tightly for the first time in weeks. This tells me a big change is due almost immediately (either gold continues to outpace silver up towards $970+, or both start to fall off with silver slipping faster. I would not be surprised if the GSR starts heading back to the 69 level as soon as Friday to slow or end this current up leg in gold/silver. With options expiring on Tuesday and Monday a holiday, I think the banks will book their long profits tomorrow and start reducing their short futures positions. This can still mean rising gold prices for a few days longer but only with silver lagging as it has been doing lately. The dollar and USTB look close to reversing as does the Euro. That would slow or reverse gold.
The FEDs took down a very large Florida bank today rather than wait until the usual Friday. This probably to accomodate a more leisure long weekend by the FED/FDIC. Have a happy Memorial Day weekend fellas!
roadrunner
Gold's behavior has changed. A lot of worldwide sentiment has changed. The fed has kicked into high gear monitizing its own debt. China and other countries are growing increasingly anti-dollar. The effect of a lot of stimulus money from last fall is starting to hit the economy, and this will only increase over the next year and beyond. I think this week was pivotal for gold and gold continues to show strength. I think over the next couple of weeks we may get a chance to buy back in on a dip to th $920's again, but my forecast for July-Oct is $1400. I think we're in for a $400 gain over 4 months starting in July. An equivalent move for silver would put it around $20. The days of sub $1000 gold are numbered.
Additionally, I think gold is entering the final stage of a 5 year (total) parabolic growth pattern. Compare a 5+ year gold chart with the early stages of other parabolic moves like oil, or housing stocks in the last couple of years.
In looking at the USD and USTB both look primed for a rebound very soon. The general stock market only needs a touch more correction down to start into its major 3rd leg up. Yes, I can't believe I'm saying that. It seems much more likely to continue on with another couple of up legs from here than to go down. Bank index correlates with that as well. As overpriced as GS seemed at 144, they are probably going to take it much higher. Commodities such as copper, aluminum are also completing their final legs of a corrective ABC pattern. And for the past 2 months the SM and general commodities have moved lock step together. Oil seems to be caught inbetween up legs with a current 3rd leg up. So it too has more rise to come to finish a 5th leg up. Natural gas is finishing a quick and harsh tanking, and seems to be aligned more with copper than it does with oil.
Based on all the above I can see a breather in gold and silver as the stock market and general commodities get some fresh legs. Gold and silver are completing their 5th legs up in this first wave. The next up wave will probably be more parabolic than this one was. The only question I can't resolve is how we interject another set of legs (2,3,4,5) from here and still finish up in June/July at the latest? This would give credence to PC's move of several hundred dollars.
As far as overall major legs since 2001, I think the first 2 were as follows and that we are currently at the early stages of leg 3. This is what wave theorist Alf Field has subscribed to.
1: $255-$1033 (4X)
2: $1033 - $700 (-33%)
3. $700 - XXXX (4x?)
4. TBD (-33%)
5. TBD (4X?)
Putting in those estimates gets a final value of $7500/oz. fwiw. Typically, the last 2 up legs match or well exceed the length of the first leg. Even using a hugely conservative $778 estimate for all 3 up legs, combined with a pair of 33% corrections still nets about $1770 which is very much in line with Sinclair's absolute minumum of $1650 which he forecasted 8 years ago. Note that his estimate was then based on covering our foreign debt with the 8133 tons of US gold. That was the same methodology he used in the early 1970's to come with $900 gold for the peak of the 1980 market. With our foreign debt leaps and bounds higher vs. 8 years ago, it would take gold closer to 5 figures to now cover our current foreign debt. And it will be much higher in a few years from now as well.
roadrunner
In my mind parabolic is $7,000.00 Gold. The Stock markets parabolic rise took it from 770 low in 1982, past the 1000 barrier that stopped it for years, and then
topped approximately 19 years latter at almost 15x over (11,500 or so dow) from its low of 770.
roadrunner
<< <i>Proof,
In my mind parabolic is $7,000.00 Gold. The Stock markets parabolic rise took it from 770 low in 1982, past the 1000 barrier that stopped it for years, and then
topped approximately 19 years latter at almost 15x over (11,500 or so dow) from its low of 770. >>
I didn't complete my thought above. The 5th leg of the parabolic move will take until 4Q of 2010. Other parabolic moves (oil, real estate) saw about a 1.5 multiplier from the end of the 4th leg. That would put gold at $2500. I think there are other factors at play with PMs that may push this higher. Namely, a "shortage" of available physical material and unwinding of large short positions. BTW, the 5th leg of a parabolic move is where it actually starts to look like a parabola, but the extreme moves don't come until the final months... 2nd half of 2010. Until then it will look like a steadily increasing price.
this time frame! i was wrong.
i just wonder if this is pure speculation driving it up and when they
get a signal to unload things will drop quite a bit erasing everything
we see today.
time will tell!
<< <i>i am very surprised by this move upwards in gold and silver during
this time frame! i was wrong.
i just wonder if this is pure speculation driving it up and when they
get a signal to unload things will drop quite a bit erasing everything
we see today.
time will tell! >>
I've seen that happen too many times. I just can't get excited about this run-up unless it goes to $1100-1200. It seems more likely to me that it will drop down to the $900 range soon.
I don't have any charts or information to support this, just my gut feeling and experience.
<< <i>This would be a good time to take the Calif Union bashing topic to its own thread if the debaters wish to continue. Let's keep this one on topic about May trading trends. Thanks.
roadrunner >>
RR sorry to hijack, my apologies to you and the forum
I was listening to a quick snippet of fast trading on CNBC to hear one trader denounce gold stating that he just doesn't ever see it doing anything. That is, that there are just too many other "safer" and worthwhile trades out in the market to bother dealing with gold. I've always thought of PM's as just the opposite, the only safe bet out there in times of gross fiscal uncerainty when held in physical form.
roadrunner