Options
May gold/silver trading thread - both poised for a good move
roadrunner
Posts: 28,303 ✭✭✭✭✭
Gold and silver have been trading in a tighter and tighter band for a while now and seem to be getting compressed for a reaction. Unfortunately, the reaction direction cannot be predicted and either direction is possible. This seems more applicable to gold and the gold stocks which are seeing trading (Bollinger) bands at cyclical low levels. Most of the time that gold has seen this over the past year, the movement has resulted upwards, but not always. This tighter trading range needs resolution soon, probably next week with more economic news to come including bank stress test results though word is already out that 6 of 19 banks need additional capital.
The gold chart indicators are still leaning towards further downward movement to come (ie finish off a 5th leg down since the Feb 20th high). So that's where I'd lean. Still, a number of things still seem to point to finishing up May with gold on a much higher note. But I think the banksters would like one more good smackdown to unload more of their shorts before profiting on the rebound. The gold futures commercial short ratio is only 2.67-1 which is not quite near the 3+ range where large gold dumps have occurred in the past.
CFTC gold COT data by week
CFTC gold futures COT data/graphs
roadrunner
The gold chart indicators are still leaning towards further downward movement to come (ie finish off a 5th leg down since the Feb 20th high). So that's where I'd lean. Still, a number of things still seem to point to finishing up May with gold on a much higher note. But I think the banksters would like one more good smackdown to unload more of their shorts before profiting on the rebound. The gold futures commercial short ratio is only 2.67-1 which is not quite near the 3+ range where large gold dumps have occurred in the past.
CFTC gold COT data by week
CFTC gold futures COT data/graphs
roadrunner
0
Comments
<< <i>Gold and silver have been trading in a tighter and tighter band for a while now and seem to be getting compressed for a reaction. Unfortunately, the reaction direction cannot be predicted and either direction is possible. This seems more applicable to gold and the gold stocks which are seeing trading (Bollinger) bands at cyclical low levels. Most of the time that gold has seen this over the past year, the movement has resulted upwards, but not always. This tighter trading range needs resolution soon, probably next week with more economic news to come including bank stress test results though word is already out that 6 of 19 banks need additional capital.
The gold chart indicators are still leaning towards further downward movement to come (ie finish off a 5th leg down since the Feb 20th high). So that's where I'd lean. Still, a number of things still seem to point to finishing up May with gold on a much higher note. But I think the banksters would like one more good smackdown to unload more of their shorts before profiting on the rebound. The gold futures commercial short ratio is only 2.67-1 which is not quite near the 3+ range where large gold dumps have occurred in the past.
CFTC gold COT data by week
roadrunner >>
hhmmm is that why all major pm dealers are dropping premiums?
equities are going higher, fear is gone an so metals drop
Hong kong/Long Beach JUNE Table #838
MACAU
emgworldwide@gmail.com
Cell: 512.808.3197
EMERGING MARKET GROUP
PCGS, NGC, CCE & NCS, CGC, PSA, Auth. Dealer
www.AlanBestBuys.com
www.VegasBestBuys.com
Governments want a low gold price to make national currencies look good. Gold is recognizable the world over as the ‘canary in the coalmine’ when it comes to money. A rising gold price blurts the unpleasant truth that a national currency is being poorly managed and that its purchasing power is being inflated.
canary in the coalmine
I have a very strict gun control policy: if there's a gun around, I want to be in control of it - Clint Eastwood
You still got it nailed via the trading range of $800-$965. I usually don't wear hats, unless they are of the tinfoil variety.
Well, the initial move was up.
One major change today besides gold being once again repelled by the 3 month down trend line was the gold:silver ratio. The g:s ratio finally broke down hard from it's previous stale range of 69-74. Silver did most of the work by reaching >$13.50 and hanging on to most of those gains. The ratio reached a low of 67.1 and is still hanging around after the NY close in the mid to lower 67's. This is far different than previous weeks where the ratio sprung back each and every day. This releases the 50 day moving average bottom that was supporting the ratio for many weeks. The metals are now more free to continue up unencumbered with no g:s ratio bottom stop in place. Considering that silver broke out today, and the silver miners have been on a tear for days, it only follows that gold should snap back with them very shortly. That could be as soon as tomorrow or when the dollar finishes a brief rally up that started around .83. It tried again today but was bounced back at that same $916-$919 3 month resistance line that it's recently hit twice now. Silver should continue to outpace gold.
Ron Rosen indicated 2 weeks ago that last week or early this week would be your last chance to get in on gold's next run through early June. Gold seems to be following that path. A target of $940's to $960's seems to be within sight. If $960's are taken out quickly and hold, $1000 would be next. Still, can't rule out a dump back to the $864 double bottom or further, but time is quickly running out for that option. A quick move into the $920's and that possibility ends. Silver finally closing above $13.25 has pumped new life into the equation.
roadrunner
www.AlanBestBuys.com
www.VegasBestBuys.com
during this recent bump up. simple speculation and betting.
the dog days of summer are almost here. i expect a steady decline and lack of news
to keep the furor going.
analyzing fundamentals, chart trends, and etc.. are all pointless to me in this environment
unless you are looking years and years out. Not next week or month. This is all driven
by greed, fear, and human nature.
<< <i>This is all driven by greed, fear, and human nature. >>
so what's new? hasn't it always been this way... won't it always BE this way... after all... it is human nature
-sm
The Maddy Rae Collection
CURRENT BST OFFERINGS
<< <i>
<< <i>This is all driven by greed, fear, and human nature. >>
so what's new? hasn't it always been this way... won't it always BE this way... after all... it is human nature
-sm >>
i think the past several years was more based on fundamentals
compared to today.
there was compelling reasons that gold at 400-500 should be more
then that a few years ago.
so to answer you.. the reason gold went up to 800ish over the last few
years was less due to fear, greed, and human nature and more so that folks were
able to recognize a bargain when they saw one.
that leaves speculation as the driving force for gold.
now, there is nothing wrong with buying and selling gold based on speculation. that is an honest way to make (or lose) a buck.
but unless you manufacture jewelry or computers, etc. there is no fundamental reason to own gold.
www.AlanBestBuys.com
www.VegasBestBuys.com
Wrong. It means that the dollar has been cut in half, but your salary hasn't doubled. It means that a house or a car isn't really worth what you paid for it, but you are stuck with the original loan payments.
If you were smart enough to buy a bunch of gold at $400, then you now have $400 in taxable income, which means that you owe, say an extra $165 in taxes and that your purchasing power on the remaining $635 is now less than the purchasing power of the original $400 which was free & clear in the first place.
Still, you are better off having bought the gold, or your purchasing power would now only be equal to $200 of the original dollars.
If you decide to stash the gold for the longterm, you are better off. No transaction expenses. No immediate tax burden, and continual insurance against a dropping dollar. When you finally do sell the gold, remember to sell something else in which you might have a loss, in order to offset your gain.
I knew it would happen.
just curious
-sm
The Maddy Rae Collection
CURRENT BST OFFERINGS
I knew it would happen.
<< <i>
<< <i>
<< <i>This is all driven by greed, fear, and human nature. >>
so what's new? hasn't it always been this way... won't it always BE this way... after all... it is human nature
-sm >>
i think the past several years was more based on fundamentals
compared to today.
there was compelling reasons that gold at 400-500 should be more
then that a few years ago.
so to answer you.. the reason gold went up to 800ish over the last few
years was less due to fear, greed, and human nature and more so that folks were
able to recognize a bargain when they saw one. >>
i guess i am slow. let me try this one out.
if miners are bringing ore out of the ground, processing it, and creating
large bars at a cost of 400-500 an ounce... does it not seem reasonable
that buying smaller gold bars and rounds of .999 fine gold seem a
reasonable bargain at 400-500 an ounce? (add in more fabrication
costs on top of the large bars).
that type of situation could not last in my opinion for very long. It was
an anomoly. Gold was cheap when you consider the cost of actually
getting at it.
it had a fundamental reason for going up. the costs of getting it will
go up over time and not many businesses will stay afloat selling their
product for less then what it costs to produce.
one could reasonably expect that gold would go up based on that
scenario.
--------
but then maybe i think to simply for this forum
<< <i>fundamentals for gold? gold is not a commodity that is based on fundamentals. the "fundamentals" are jewelry production, electronics production. gold is no longer used as a basis for currency.
that leaves speculation as the driving force for gold.
now, there is nothing wrong with buying and selling gold based on speculation. that is an honest way to make (or lose) a buck.
but unless you manufacture jewelry or computers, etc. there is no fundamental reason to own gold. >>
the companies you listed buy gold, obviously. the miners produce
it and they have set costs where they can determine how much each
ounce is costing them. if the spot price of gold is basically the same
as what it costs them to get at it one could reasonably expect that
over time the costs would go up and spot would have to adjust to
this new reality over time.
it makes sense to me. a spot price below what the miners can produce
it in large bars cannot last very long unless recyling of existing gold
above ground is a constant compared to usage/demand.. which it is not.
i normally call that a fundamental reason something can go up in price.
what do you call it?
News to me....and probably to Central Bankers as well. Gold and silver have been alternative currencies in the US for years now, proved simply by noting their reactions to the US dollar since this commodity bull market began in 2002. Silver actually has a higher long term inverse correlation to the $USD than gold does over the past 12 months at 82% correlation. There is no real reason to own the stock market either. It's all based on speculation, fear, hope, and greed. Since dividends have nearly disappeared it's not much different than owning gold. There are no more true investments, just various forms of speculations.
The fundamental reason to own gold is as insurance from improper govt actions in financial and currency markets....at times that can be called strong inflation. That's why central banks still hoard what they have left and why you keep hearing the IMF bring up the subject about "maybe" selling theirs. The Chinese, Russians, Saudi's, and others are not adding to their gold stocks in order to ensure a cheap and steady gold source for their jewelers. Watch as other nations besides Venezuela continue to overtax or nationalize foreign gold mines in their jurisdictions. The UK didn't sell 414 tons of their gold 10 years ago at the bottom of the market because they wanted to. They did it as a favor to the US to help keep the dollar running and gold supressed. It's hardly about computer parts or jewelry, but about power and wealth preservation. Gold has been deep rooted in India's culture for centuries as they've seen the effects of paper money come and go many times The Indian's may consume a huge amount as "jewelry," but that really is their way and stashing away wealth that can't be confiscated through paper money machinations.
That dollar chart is indeed bearish. That head and shoulders top indicates there is still a lot of bottoming to do, at least down to the .80 level. In fact retesting that last major down leg at 0.79 would be a good test. That chart somewhat inversely mirrors what gold did during the same time frame, that is, an inverse head and shoulders bottom. That basically says that gold is headed for $1300 not too far out. I would suspect within 1 year, and likely sooner. Considering that gold gets weaker in the summer I don't think we have time left in May/June to get there. Maybe we could get to $1000+ or even $1065. In any case gold is breaking out of it's downtrend from February. But I don't think it's ready for an assault to $1000, but all the machinery is in place and such a run would not surprise me. The fact that a number of players (including banks) have loaded up the long futures options on the Comex for May and January supports the idea that spikes are coming in those time frames. I also don't rule out the possibility of a summer down leg to well under $800. It might take such a move to form the base for a move to $1300.
The gold chart is currently forming that right side inverse shoulder and when it's complete, it's off to the races with no stopping at $1033. You can also see a triangle being worked out with the run from November as the bottom line and the top line defined by the downtrend from February. The triangle is running out of room as the gold up and down cycles are narrowing. That $850-$990 trading range has been incrementally compressed to $893-$916. Since the move has been one long uptrend, it should break upwards.
roadrunner
roadrunner
roadrunner... we went off the gold standard how many decades ago? the government will no longer redeem your paper dollars for gold. your paper dollar is worth a dollar NOT because there is gold backing it up but only because you and the next guy believe that paper dollar is worth a dollar.
question: what is the total money supply today? how many ounces of gold are there today? do the math-- how much gold per dollar?
thanks
www.AlanBestBuys.com
www.VegasBestBuys.com
When it hits $1000, I'm expecting the trend to consolidate near there for a few weeks before blasting over $1000 for good.
It's also very bullish to see silver leading the way.
And as far as gold not being a currency... just because a government won't exchange your gold for dollars or vice versa doesn't mean it's not a currency.
You're right. Cans of peas are also a currency even though the government won't exchange your cans of peas for dollars.
With that said, gold is a commodity. Show me one government that uses gold as a currency? Just one.
www.AlanBestBuys.com
www.VegasBestBuys.com
But, can you walk into the IRS and pay your tax bill with one ounce American gold eagles? YES because they are monetized. Of course you wouldn't at the current face value of the AGE and the commodity value of the gold.
So... (and this is the ultimate question)... with gold now at about $900 an ounce, if you walked into the IRS with a one ounce American Gold Eagle, would the IRS credit you for $900 or for $50 ??
If you walked into your bank and asked the teller to give you paper currency for your one ounce AGE, would the teller give you $900 or $50 ??
If gold were a currency, both the IRS and the bank teller would weigh your gold and give you credit based on the market price. But the IRS won't do that and the bank won't do that. The bank can't do that if they don't want to be shut down.
Yet, you know one ounce AGE coins are worth more than the $50 value displayed on them. That is because these AGEs are a commodity. Just as Kruggerands are.
If my car every broke down and all I had in my pocket was a one ounce AGE I guess I could trade it for a repair from a local mechanic. but the mechanic is not obligated to make the trade, nor is the value of the "trade" set by any government standard. If you wanted to, you could trade your one ounce AGE for a gallon of gas. But that doesn't make that AGE currency, does it?
You could use your one ounce AGE for $50 at the bank or IRS-- but the commodity value is more than the face value.
If the IRS or the bank recognized the current market value of your gold, then yes, gold would be a currency. but until then, it's a commodity.
www.AlanBestBuys.com
www.VegasBestBuys.com
<< <i>Let's put it simply: can you walk into the IRS and pay your tax bill with one ounce of Englehard silver? Or a five ounce JM gold bar? NO.
But, can you walk into the IRS and pay your tax bill with one ounce American gold eagles? YES because they are monetized. Of course you wouldn't at the current face value of the AGE and the commodity value of the gold.
So... (and this is the ultimate question)... with gold now at about $900 an ounce, if you walked into the IRS with a one ounce American Gold Eagle, would the IRS credit you for $900 or for $50 ??
If you walked into your bank and asked the teller to give you paper currency for your one ounce AGE, would the teller give you $900 or $50 ??
If gold were a currency, both the IRS and the bank teller would weigh your gold and give you credit based on the market price. But the IRS won't do that and the bank won't do that. The bank can't do that if they don't want to be shut down.
Yet, you know one ounce AGE coins are worth more than the $50 value displayed on them. That is because these AGEs are a commodity. Just as Kruggerands are.
If my car every broke down and all I had in my pocket was a one ounce AGE I guess I could trade it for a repair from a local mechanic. but the mechanic is not obligated to make the trade, nor is the value of the "trade" set by any government standard. If you wanted to, you could trade your one ounce AGE for a gallon of gas. But that doesn't make that AGE currency, does it?
You could use your one ounce AGE for $50 at the bank or IRS-- but the commodity value is more than the face value.
If the IRS or the bank recognized the current market value of your gold, then yes, gold would be a currency. but until then, it's a commodity. >>
Very well put.
Hong kong/Long Beach JUNE Table #838
MACAU
emgworldwide@gmail.com
Cell: 512.808.3197
EMERGING MARKET GROUP
PCGS, NGC, CCE & NCS, CGC, PSA, Auth. Dealer
1. something that is used as a medium of exchange; money.
Clearly if you watched the video, gold is being used as currency in Zimbabwe, even if their gov't or IRS-equivalent won't take payment in gold.
There is absolutely no question about it - a paper dollar is worth a dollar.
The government can change the rules faster than the honest people in the world can react and adjust.
You can work and save for 30 years, and then in the space of one Fed announcement, you have nothing. Except dependency upon the guv'mint.
I knew it would happen.
<< <i>If it costs more to mine gold than gold can fetch in the open market... the mines stop mining.
>>
and if mines stop mining and companies who need gold to continue their business will
have to fight for the remaining above ground supply which will raise the price of the
gold you own.
but this is just how i think. it is unnatural for a metal to have a spot price below the cost
of almost every mining company's ability to produce it.
no need to debate it further.
<< <i>I don't want this to be a semantics argument, but the relevant dictionary.com defitions for currency is:
1. something that is used as a medium of exchange; money.
Clearly if you watched the video, gold is being used as currency in Zimbabwe, even if their gov't or IRS-equivalent won't take payment in gold. >>
proof, it seems if the govt is not in play that whatever we use to make a deal and pay for the
products or services will not be considered money by some.
a critical mass can be reached, like your Zimbabwe example, which makes the govt irrelevant to the
discussion. For all intents and purposes the govt of Zimbabwe is collapsing so I think your point
is valid.
gold is used as a currency in many other countries. Vietnam for example when buying a house with
some/remainder being paid in cash to cover the "govt angle".
i would accept it. you would accept it. a coin store accepts it. they accept it on the bourse. any
educated person who understands the metal would accept it. at a certain point in time you
just have to forget about the govt and consider it money when enough are willing to use it.
<< <i>If my car every broke down and all I had in my pocket was a one ounce AGE I guess I could trade it for a repair from a local mechanic. but the mechanic is not obligated to make the trade... >>
If your car broke down and all you had in your pocket were $100 bills, you could trade them for a repair from a local mechanic, but the mechanic is not obligated to make that trade, either.
Wow, for once fc and I agree.
MoneyLA, if the USgovt won't take your gold, give the Chinese a call, they are buying as are a number of other leading nations (Russia, Germany, Italy, etc.). Of course you always have the tens of thousands of coin shops, pawn shops and bullion dealers around the country. In fact bullion buying businesses are popping up everywhere, just like banks. They can take in your gold as well. And if you know what the market is, they will pay fair. You can keep on saying we have been "off" the gold standard since 1971 but it's behaviour with respect to other paper currencies, even in the face of massive manipulation by the banks, blows that argument away. I only care about results, not a piece of paper that says the paper currency is no longer redeemable in gold or silver. The US Constitution already specifies about what real money is, and it has nothing to do with paper.
I agree PC. Gold has been coiling since I started this thread over the weekend. $953-$960 seems like the minimum target just based on IH&S formations. Still can't rule out that this is a continuing final corrective leg from the March 2008 peak so have to continue to monitor for that. Interest rates on 5/10/30 yr USTBonds continue to be driven up. There was a bond auction today and it appears the results were not good. Gold got whacked nontheless. The dollar seems to be trying to decide whether to drop a bit more from here or make another weak move to 85-87.
The topside number I pulled out was $1030 which was based on restoring the gold:silver ratio back to support levels of 57 where it was at prior to the meddling in the metals last July. We've already recovered 27% of that ($700 to $890) in moving the ratio from 84 to 66. Taking it down to 57 brings us up another 15% from there to the $1030+ mark. The large IH&S formation formed since last summer still points to an ultimate goal of $1300 if/when that kicks in. Obviously, a mid-summer wipeout to under $700 would negate that option.
edited: it was odd how quickly gold was repelled from $924 during the NY Open today. Bernanke was speaking early in the morning, a bond auction was going to occur, and stress test news was coming out as well. It basically corrected all day and ended weak. The gold and silver stocks already bounced hard off their upper trading bands.
roadrunner
<< <i>I don't want this to be a semantics argument, but the relevant dictionary.com defitions for currency is:
1. something that is used as a medium of exchange; money.
Clearly if you watched the video, gold is being used as currency in Zimbabwe, even if their gov't or IRS-equivalent won't take payment in gold. >>
Suppose there are 2 people. A plumber and and electrician. Both are building a new house. The plumber does the plumbing for the electrians house and visa versa. Can work be considered a currency?
Knowledge is the enemy of fear
Knowledge is the enemy of fear
<< <i>
<< <i>I don't want this to be a semantics argument, but the relevant dictionary.com defitions for currency is:
1. something that is used as a medium of exchange; money.
Clearly if you watched the video, gold is being used as currency in Zimbabwe, even if their gov't or IRS-equivalent won't take payment in gold. >>
Suppose there are 2 people. A plumber and and electrician. Both are building a new house. The plumber does the plumbing for the electrians house and visa versa. Can work be considered a currency? >>
I don't know if it is a currency or not. But correct me if I'm wrong.... I think that it is taxable as services rendered..... ?
<< <i>It is traded though. Your employer trades you paper for it. No? >>
Just checked the definition, I guess labor is a medium. So I agree, it would also be considered a currency.
<< <i>Gold still looks bullish to me. $920 seems to be a resistance level and we've made two attempts. I think the third time will get us through this level for good. >>
Not this week though ... perhaps next week?
Here's a nice link to an ariticle by Stewart Thomson on trading gold. It brings up some very good points about selling into strength and buying weakness. This is the same stuff Sinclair harped on for years but has since stopped talking about. Maybe that's why I have forgotten to do that at times. Maybe if I review this once a month I can eliminate those times that I get caught up in the "fever" and buy in the middle of a run-up thinking I might miss the last train. But there are basically 5000 more trains to come, so don't sweat it.
Thomson on trading attitudes
Golden Star, Hecla, IAG, made some strong moves the past few days. These early risers give some hope to the rest of the sector that a bigger lift is probably coming. But we could easily correct back down to $900+ again to scare off more weak hands before proceeding past $920. Today, HUI finished very close to it's previous 6 month cycle highs. The miners have been leading the metals for a while now but are still historically are way underpriced vs. bullion. Goldcorp and Yamana had some good 1st qtr earnings reports this week. Kinross and especially Eldorado had reports that sucked too much wind and took some lumps. Goldcorp did real well this week while Yamana got sucker punched around.
Clive Maund seeing toppy action on miners, oil, and stock market
Clive is waving a caution flag on everything, esp stocks,oil, and precious metals as they hit upper resistance areas. He feels the current drop in treasuries and the dollar might require some "outside assistance" such as pulling the plug on the stock market or a 2nd round of derivatives deleveraging. He mentions the idea of somehow writing them off or canceling them. But considering that typically both sides of the bet overvalue them on their balance sheet, that would mean most everyone will lose unless payouts are conducted via the govt such as was done with AIG. The winner is counting on 100% payments from the loser and the losers are figuring the value of their losing positions at 60c-90c on the dollar which is absurd. How do you cancel such a proposition when the "winner" has the entry already booked as an asset and the loser books it as a small loss when it's potentially worthless. This would kill the balance sheets of most major banks and corporations who play in this game. The govt stepped in with AIG, but can they (ie J6P) afford to step in for everyone else?
roadrunner
Here's a link to another analysis... head and shoulders formation almost complete on monthly chart. Intermediate term looks good, I think the short term looks good as well.
Edited to add... I don't think the price of gold has much factored in the recent drop in the dollar... this may help as well. I expect the dollar to decrease as the stock market increases. I expect the bull to keep running in the SM, although it may need to take a week or so to consolidate some time soon.
<< <i>I think the bullish response to "the smackdown" on Friday is very bullish. I'm looking for gold to break through the low $920's once Sunday night trading commences in a few minutes, although it may take until later on Monday to accomplish this. If it does I think it's time to add to long positions.
Here's a link to another analysis... head and shoulders formation almost complete on monthly chart. Intermediate term looks good, I think the short term looks good as well.
Edited to add... I don't think the price of gold has much factored in the recent drop in the dollar... this may help as well. I expect the dollar to decrease as the stock market increases. I expect the bull to keep running in the SM, although it may need to take a week or so to consolidate some time soon. >>
Making a good attempt at it so far as of 7:30PM.... but will we see the usual smackdown come Monday morning?
It seems like "someone" is trying to buy all the shares they can cheap and keep longs out. The miner charts can be perceived as overbought but the action is just strange. It does not have the feel of a collapsing market yet I get the idea that is what the main players want us to believe. The gold and silver bullion prices refusing to go away seems to support this. But the action had me thinking all day about dropping all my miner positions because of the strange behavior. I decided to act contrary to my feelings and buy some of the miners that dropped 5% today.
The 2 spinning top candlesticks for EGO are very odd with long shadows and a tiny body indicating open/close prices nearly identical. Seeing 1 is normal but seeing 2 identical ones is not the norm. The sellers try to push them far down and they eventually come back by end of the day back to the opening price.
A struggle amongst the miner shares is quite apparent. Even though many are near the tops of their trading bands and have pulled away over the last few sessions, I think miners are going to spring right back up once gold decides to leave this tight band. The gold:silver ratio supports the above as it opened in the 65.5-65.7 range and stayed in that general range essentially all day except during the a.m. smackdown in both metals. Gold is very happy staying in a tight $912-$915 range as is the g:s ratio in the 65.5-65.7 range. Gold is still getting compressed. Silver has an IH&S formation from mid-day that should it go over $14.00 it will probably head to $14.20 pretty quick. Considering that gold has yet to really respond to the dollar drop <.83 there is more upside. It did look like that the miners were staying weak today in sympathy with the main stock market, whether real or implied.
The money is now being made by selling in the first and last 30 minutes of each session (with a preference to the first 5 minutes of the opn). These are times J6P is really at a disadvantage unless he tosses in some great guesses on buy and sell stops.
roadrunner
A 61.8% FIB corrective retrace of the G/S ratio move from last year (51 up to 84) would take it to 63.5 which means there is still some room left in this move. What I noticed happening today for the first time was that as the ratio expanded back towards 65.7, both metals were still slowly advancing only gold moreso. The action in previous sessions when the ratio was expanding. usually both metals would be falling only silver at a faster pace. I like this new action better because gold has more catching up to do. The miners are all moving now with a number of them going parabolic.
roadrunner
<< <i>I agree RR, the consolidation is bullish. The burst through $920 is decisive. One thing that I kind of like is that gold is making steady progress, and not bolting upward. Kind of a grinding bullish move. I think the move to $990 might just get there gradually like this over the next 6 weeks. I also like the fact that silver is leading this move. >>
That must mean that it is a SECULAR move. Which it is.
Okay, 990, but then what? Do prices break through 1,000 and keep going up? Or is there another rally failure? Or do gold prices lock at 990 and hold there?
Returning to 990 is no big deal. A breakout above 1,000 would be significant.
Your forecast please? prices and dates? thanks.
www.AlanBestBuys.com
www.VegasBestBuys.com
In the bigger picture, I do see this attempt at $990/1000 being successful and ending up with gold at $1000+ for the rest of the year. I think the move over $1000 will not rest until the $1200 area.
Agreed. And nothing that has occurred since 2001 has kicked gold out of a bull market (or if you will, US dollar bear market). Sinclair mentioned that the last item for the move to $1650 would be generally falling bond prices. We've been there now for several months, but it won't be a steady move down.
But on the flip side, there is no guarantee that the currently slow grinding move in gold could still be part of a massive corrective wave from the 2001-2008 run to $1033. And if that's case, we could slowly grind to $935-$990 from here, then take the summer off as prices collapse on this final leg down to the $625-$825 range. And that move would not kill the bull count. In fact such a massive drop would certainly shake out a ton of weak hands with every fiat bug proclaiming the end of gold for good. And then begins the real move to over $1200+. That should occur no later than December 2009-April 2010. The volatility in the 3rd wave up is going to be nothing like what we've seen so far. There's also no way yet to know if we are currently in the start of that wave 3 up right now. According to Elliot Wavist Robert Prechter he believes we are in a larger wave right now to well under $800. The only thing about Prechter is that he has been calling for $200 gold since the bull market started and couldn't have been more wrong up to this point. It took a couple of extra decades to finally prove him "right" on the massive crash down of the Dow/S&P.
In the meantime, we play with what we get and book some profits on the moves up, and buy on the down turns.
roadrunner
It seems a number of the junior miners that made huge moves are giving back some profits (GSS, CDE, NovaGold, etc.). But with the major miners still showing increasing volumes and money flows that huge push back today doesn't seem to fit that the miners are done for a while. I'm not buying it. Again, it's like Friday/Monday/Tuesday where longs were being stampeded out....in preparation for an up move. And the move up today, albeit brief, made some players a ton of quick money (5-6%) and then things returned to normal as if that never happened. I was in the hospital today for a double dose of hernia action so I didn't get a chance to sell anything on that quick spike. It caught me by surprise when reviewing the charts today. Maybe it will turn out for the best.
And for the TRE-haters club that stock appears to be in the process of preparing for a big move. Everything points to upwards except that if the general stock market brings down the miners with it, I don't think TRE can fight that battle. And TRE is in the process of performing a 43-101 Technical Report on one of their larger properties. That has been in progess for over 2 months, long before the TRE smackdown occurred last month. I can't rule out that it won't crash and burn to under $2.00 but it seems more than likely it will rise from it's current $3.14 mark to start filling that huge gap 10-20% higher. Of all the miners I look it, TRE seems to currently have the best set up in place. It would be nice if it had the ounces to go with it. But then again, there are many other miners flying who also don't have ounces being produced or sold.
roadrunner